Saturday, June 02, 2012

2012 Michigan State House Races

Cross-posted at The Western Right, Right Michigan, and Red Racing Horses. Updated with new ratings August 10, 2012.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans currently hold a 63-47 majority, following a 67-43 democrat majority before 2010. There are “only” 22 open seats following many members being term-limited, defeated, or seeking other office in 2010.

Republicans will gain several seats due to redistricting, though not as many as they could have. Republican Michigander has written a good profile of the races along with presidential election data, racial breakdowns, and brief commentary. The Secretary of State website has a complete list of candidates, along with links to some, but not all candidate websites.

Michigan State House - all districts
2012 Unofficial Michigan Primary Candidate Listing

Republican Michigander tends to be more pessimistic than I am in ratings (not just for these districts, but in general), so I am providing my own ratings. I am confident about the districts in my area (Kalamazoo) but many of the others are educated guesses.

The following lists district number, current incumbent, political rating, and geographic description.

1. -10. [Detroit] Safe D
11. (Open) [Inkster, Garden City] Safe D for David Knezek
12. (Douglas Geiss) [Taylor, Romulus] Safe D
13. (Andrew Kandrevas) [Southgate, Allen Park, Dearborn Heights] Safe D
14. (Paul Clemente) [Riverview, Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, Melvindale] Safe D
15. (George Darany) [Dearborn] Safe D
16. (Open) [Westland, Wayne] Safe D for Robert Kosowski
17. (Open) [N Monroe, Sumpter, Huron] Lean D: Annie Rossio v. Bill LaVoy
18. (Open) [St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe] Safe D for Sarah Roberts
19. (John Walsh) [Livonia] Safe R
20. (Kurt Heise) [Plymouth, Northville] Safe R
21. (Dian Slavens) [Canton, Van Buren] Safe D
22. (Harold Haugh) [Roseville, E Warren] Safe D
23. (Pat Somerville) [SE Wayne] Tossup versus Tom Boritski (D)
24. (Anthony Forlini) [Harrison, N Clinton, SW Macomb] Safe R
25. (Open) [E Sterling Heights, NC Warren] Tossup: Sean Clark versus Henry Yanez
26. (Jim Townsend) [Royal Oak, Madison Heights] Safe D
27. (Ellen Cogen Lipton) [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park] Safe D
28. (Jon Switalski beat Lesia Liss) [W Warren, Center Line] Safe D
29. (Tim Greimel) [Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Orchard Lake] Safe D
30. (Jeff Farrington) [W Sterling Heights, Utica, SE Shelby] Safe R
31. (Marilyn Lane) [S Clinton, Fraser, Mt. Clemens] Safe D
32. (Andrea LaFontaine) [Chesterfield, C St. Clair] Safe R
33. (Ken Goike) [NE Macomb, Macomb Twp.] Safe R
34. (Woodrow Stanley) [Flint] Safe D
35. (Rudy Hobbs) [Southfield] Safe D
36. (Pete Lund) [Shelby, Washington, Bruce] Safe R
37. (Vicki Barnett) [Farmington] Safe D
38. (Hugh Crawford) [Novi, Lyon] Safe R
39. (Open) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom] Lean R: Klint Kesto v. Pam Jackson
40. (Open) [Bloomfield, Birmingham, E West Bloomfield] Safe R for Michael McCready
41. (Open) [Troy, Clawson] Lean R: Martin Howrylak v. Mary Kerwin
42. (Bill Rogers) [SE Livingston] Safe R
43. (Gail Haines) [Waterford, Independence] Safe R
44. (Eileen Kowall) [Springfield, White Lake, Highland, Milford] Safe R
45. (Tom McMillin) [Rochester, S Oakland Twp] Safe R
46. (Bradford Jacobsen) [NE Oakland] Safe R
47. (Cindy Denby) [N Livingston] Safe R
48. (Open) [NE Genesee] Safe D for Pam Faris or Pat Gleason
49. (Jim Ananich) [Flint Twp., Mt. Morris, SW Flint] Safe D
50. (Charles Smiley) [Burton, Grand Blanc, Mundy] Safe D
51. (Joe Graves) [W Genesee, Fenton, NW Oakland] Safe R
52. (Mark Ouimet) [W Washtenaw] Lean R versus Gretchen Driskell
53. (Jeff Irwin) [Ann Arbor] Safe D
54. (David Rutledge) [Ypsilanti] Safe D
55. (Open) [Pittsfield, NE Ann Arbor, York, Augusta] Safe D for Adam Zemke
56. (Dale Zorn) [S Monroe] Safe R
57. (Nancy Jenkins) [Lenawee] Lean R versus Jim Berryman
58. (Ken Kurtz) [Branch, Hillsdale] Safe R
59. (Matt Lori) [St. Joseph, E Cass] Safe R
60. (Sean McCann) [Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp.] Safe D
61. (Margaret O'Brien) [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] Safe R
62. (Kate Segal) [Battle Creek, Albion, N Calhoun] Safe D
63. (Jase Bolger) [E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun] Safe R
64. (Earl Poleski) [Jackson city, W Jackson] Lean R versus Barb Shelton
65. (Mike Shirkey) [N Jackson, SE Eaton] Safe R
66. (Aric Nesbitt) [Van Buren, Cooper, Alamo, Parchment] Safe R
67. (Open) [S Ingham] Tossup: Jeff Oesterle v. Tom Cochran
68. (Open) [Lansing] Safe D for Andy Schor
69. (Open) [East Lansing, Meridian] Safe D for Sam Singh
70. (Rick Outman) [Montcalm, N Gratiot] Lean R versus Mike Huckleberry
71. (Deb Shaughnessy) [Eaton] Lean R versus Theresa Abed or Andrea Cascarilla
72. (Ken Yonker) [Kentwood, Gaines, NE Allegan] Safe R
73. (Peter MacGregor) [Grand Rapids Twp, Plainfield, NE Kent] Safe R
74. (Open) [Grandville, Walker, Alpine, NW Kent] Safe R for Rob Verhuelen
75. (Brandon Dillon) [central Grand Rapids] Safe D
76. (Roy Schmidt) [peripheral Grand Rapids] Lean D for Winnie Brinks
77. (Thomas Hooker) [Wyoming, Byron] Safe R
78. (Open) [S Berrien, SW Cass] Safe R for Dave Pagel
79. (Al Pscholka) [N Berrien] Safe R
80. (Bob Genetski) [Allegan] Safe R
81. (Open) [NW, E St. Clair] Safe R for Dan Lauwers
82. (Kevin Daley) [Lapeer] Safe R
83. (Paul Muxlow) [Sanilac, Port Huron] Safe R
84. (Kurt Damrow) [Tuscola, Huron] Lean D: Dan Grimshaw v. Terry Brown
85. (Ben Glardon) [Shiawassee, W Saginaw] Lean R versus Paul Ray
86. (Lisa Posthumus Lyons) [SE Kent, N Ionia] Safe R
87. (Mike Callton) [Barry, S Ionia] Safe R
88. (Open) [NE Ottawa] Safe R for Roger Victory
89. (Amanda Price) [W Ottawa] Safe R
90. (Joseph Haveman) [Holland] Safe R
91. (Holly Hughes) [S, W Muskegon] Lean R versus Collene Lamonte
92. (Marcia Hovey Wright) [Muskegon city] Safe D
93. (Open) [S Gratiot, Clinton] Safe R for Tom Leonard
94. (Open) [Saginaw Twp, E Saginaw] Safe R for Tim Kelly
95. (Stacy Erwin Oakes) [Saginaw city] Safe D
96. (Charles Brunner) [Bay] Safe D
97. (Joel Johnson) [Arenac, Gladwin, Clare, E Osceola] Lean R versus Chris Breznau
98. (Jim Stamas) [C Midland, N Bay] Safe R
99. (Kevin Cotter) [Isabella, W Midland] Lean R versus Adam Lawrence
100. (Jon Bumstead) [Newaygo, Oceana, Lake] Safe R
101. (Ray Franz) [Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Mason] Lean R versus Allen O'Shea
102. (Phil Potvin) [Wexford, W Osceola, Mecosta] Safe R
103. (Bruce Rendon) [Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw] Safe R
104. (Wayne Schmidt) [Grand Traverse] Safe R
105. (Greg MacMaster) [Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda] Safe R
106. (Peter Petallia) [E Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco] Lean R versus Kenneth Hubbard
107. (Frank Foster) [Emmet, Mackinac, Chippewa, N Cheboygan] Safe R
108. (Ed McBroom) [Delta, Menominee, Dickinson] Lean R versus Sharon Gray
109. (Open) [Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, Luce] Safe D for John Kivela
110. (Matt Huuki) [W Upper Peninsula] Tossup versus Scott Dianda

Safe D: 42
Lean D: 3
Tossup: 4
Lean R: 14
Safe R: 47

Most races will not be competitive, but a few deserve attention.

23. Pat Somerville won this district for Republicans for the first time in a long time. It's a tossup.
25. This tossup district in Macomb will be hotly contested. Macomb's districts could have been drawn better.
28. Jon Switalski defeated Lesia Liss, who is more moderate, in this battle of democrat incumbents.
39. Democrat Lisa Brown is running for Oakland County Clerk rather than seek reelection in this now more Republican district. A prime pick-up opportunity.
51. Republican Joe Graves is running for reelection after winning the seat of recalled Republican Paul Scott.
52. Mark Ouimet continues to be a star fundraiser is this swingy Washtenaw district.
55. Republican Rick Olsen retired rather than run in this now solidly democrat district.
57. Republican Nancy Jenkins is running for reelection after democrats failed to get a recall on the ballot. Her opponent is former state senator Jim Berryman, who defeated 2010 opponent Harvey Schmidt.
67. Republican Jeff Oesterle came close to winning this district in 2010, and it is slightly more Republican now.
70. Republican Rick Outman will defend against democrat former rep. Mike Huckleberry, who he defeated in 2010.
76. Party-switching rep. Roy Schmidt is running for reelection as a Republican. Democrats nominated Winnie Brinks as a write-in candidate. Schmidt has probably alienated so many people that he is unelectable.
84. Republican Kurt Damrow, who has had ethics issues, lost his primary to Dan Grimshaw. He faces former rep. Terry Brown, whom Damrow narrowly beat in 2010.
106. Pete Pettalia may hold this district, but if he does, it will likely go democrat after he leaves.
110. Matt Huuki won the western UP for the first time in decades. A tough defense.

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