Wednesday, November 07, 2018

Michigan 2018 Election Results

Governor: 43-54 for Whitmer over Schuette.  Michigan's governorship usually flips when open.  Schuette ran a lackluster campaign and was dogged by controversies inherited by Snyder and attacks from Calley in a bitter primary.

Senate: 46.3-51.7 for Stabenow over John James.  Much closer than her wins by 21% in 2012 and 16% in 2006.  John James was a good candidate who has a future in the MI GOP.

AG: 46.8-48.5 for Dana Nessel.  Get ready for four years of crazy Dana.

SOS: 45-52 for Benson.  Lang was largely abandoned in this race.

Proposal 1 (marijuana): 56-44  Get ready for legal pot.
Proposal 2 (redistricting): 61-39 This will be a mess with both sides trying to game the system.  Without the governor, Rs wouldn't have controlled the process, anyhow.
Proposal 3 (voting rules): 67-33 Easy win with no organized opposition.

Supreme Court was 30-25-24 for Clement (moderate R) and Cavanagh (D) with Wilder (conservative R) losing.  Rs have 4-3 majority, but two Rs are unreliable.

Education Boards:  Ds sweep all eight seats.

1. 56-44 for Bergman.  If Bergman keeps his term limits pledge, this seat will be open in 2022.
2. 55-43 for Huizinga.  Much closer, but not that close.
3. 55-42 for Amash.  Still secure.
4. 63-37 for Moolenaar.
5. 36-60 Kildee
6. 50.3-45.7 Upton.  Close call.  Upton no longer overperforms.  Does he retire in 2020, or hang on longer?
7. 54-46 Walberg. He will never win big margins, but he has settled in here.
8. 46.8-50.6 for Slotkin (LOSS).  Bishop lost thanks to D turnout in Ingham and Oakland.  Bishop didn't work the district hard enough.  Maybe Joe Hune could run next time?
9. 37-60 for Andy Levin, an heir force candidate.
10. 60-35 for Mitchell
11. 45-52 for Stevens (LOSS).  Big suburban revolt for Ds in Wayne and Oakland.  Lena Epstein, a Trump sycophant, was a bad candidate here.  Maybe Pat Colbeck could run here?
12. 28-69 for Debbie Dingell
13. 89% for Tlaib (general) and 91% for Jones (special).  Expect a hotly contested primary here in 2020.
14. 15-83 for Lawrence

State Senate.  The GOP lost five seats, ending with a 22-16 majority.  The losses were all in urban/suburban areas.  Good enough to stop Ds from passing any legislation.

7. 47-51 Polhanki.  LOSS for Laura Cox in an upscale suburban seat.  Cox could run for her old house seat, which also went D.
10. 51-46 for MacDonald.  Not the best candidate, but good enough in a Trump-friendly area.
12. 48.6-49.4 for Bayer.  LOSS for McCready.  A libertarian may have cost the moderate McCready.
13. 48.1-51.9 for McMorrow.  LOSS for Knollenberg.  Oakland suburbs here and in 12 swung against the GOP.
15. 51.7-48.3 for Runestad.  Big win for a solid conservative.
17. 58-39 for Dale Zorn.
20. 42-53 for McCann.  LOSS for Margaret O’Brien after her 61-vote win in 2014.
22. 56-42 for Lana Theis.  Big win for conservatives.
24. 54-43 for Tom Barrett.  Big win for conservatives.  Rossman spent a fortune here.
29. 41-56 for Brinks.  LOSS in a district that was on borrowed time thanks to Grand Rapids.
31. 60-40 for Daley.  He lost the primary four years ago.
32. 55-45 for Ken Horn.  Republicans have won the last eight state senate elections in Saginaw!
34. 50.7-46.4 for Bumstead.  Win for a fairly conservative candidate.
38. 55-44 for McBroom.  Dianda was a good candidate, but the UP is too Trump-friendly to win.

There are now three solid conservatives (Runestad, Theis, and Barrett), up from two now.  Mike Shirkey will be the new majority leader, an improvement on the current leader.  Four years from now there will be a new map.  Rs will have to defend open seats in Monroe and Saginaw, but should have a good chance to pick up a seat in Oakland.

State house.  Republicans lost six seats and picked up one, for a net loss of five.  The majority is now 58-52.  Conservative Lee Chatfield will be the new speaker.

3-10. Rs got 2-8% in the all-Detroit districts.
17. 56-44 for Bellino
19. 49.8-50.2 for Pohutski.  LOSS for GOP, win for progressive Ds.  Laura Cox could run for a final term here.
20. 47.3-52.7 for Koleszar.  LOSS for Noble, who had a sick wife and couldn't campaign much.
23. 44-56 for Camilleri.  Safe D now, competitive when open.
24. 56-44 for Marino
25. 46-54 for Shannon.  Big missed opportunity here.
30. 57-43 for Farrington
38. 49.4-48.1 for Crawford.  Tough open seat in 2020.
39. 54-42 for Berman against indicted embezzler Suidan.
40. 43-57 for Manoogian.  LOSS in the ultimate upscale suburban district.
41. 48.7-51.3 for Kuppa.  LOSS for Teitz in often vulnerable Troy.
44. 58-42 for Maddock, a solid conservative Trump supporter.
60. 23-77 for Hoadley
61. 51.4-48.6 for Brandt Iden, who finally broke 50%.
62. 48.2-51.8 for Haadsma.  LOSS for Rs, which was closer than expected.
63. 57-39 for Matt Hall
66. 57-43 for Beth Griffin
67. 44-54 This district is close, but not winnable.
71. 49.1-50.9 for Witwer.  Tough LOSS in a swing district.
72. 54-43 for Steven Johnson
79. 56-44 for Wendzel
91. 56-44 for VanWoerkem.  Big win in a swing district.
93. 52.5-44.6 for Filler
94. 55-45 for Wakeman
98. 52-48 for Annette Glenn.  Big win for conservatives against big spending utilities.
99. 53.4-46.6 for Hauck
101. 58-42 for O'Malley.  Great candidate in a usually close district.
104. 50.4-49.6 for Larry Inman.  Weak candidate in a vulnerable upscale district.
110. 50.8-49.2 for Gregory Markkanen.  PICKUP for a candidate who raised almost no money in a Trump-friendly district.

My ratings turned out to be pretty accurate.  Every race I had at likely or safe for a party was won by that party.  The only lean races I missed were Wilder, Bishop, Epstein, senate 7 and 12, and house 110.  My state senate tossups had margins of 5, 4, 11, 11.  My state house tossups had margins of 12, .4, 5, 3, 3, 2, 12, 7, and 16.  The closest margin in a race I had at safe was 4 (Upton).