Friday, September 02, 2022

September 2022 Judiciary News

Time for some judiciary news.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

9th Circuit:  Biden nominee Roopali Desai was confirmed by a surprisingly large 67-29 vote.  This seems to be a sop to Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who lobbied for the appointment.  Desai has a long record of leftist activism.

Nominations:
9th Circuit:  Anthony Johnstone-clerk for Sidney Thomas (9th Circuit), law professor (U Montana)
ED-NY:  Orelia Merchant-NY AG office
ED-NY:  Ramon Reyes-clerk for David Trager (ED-NY), Magistrate Judge (ED-NY)
SD-NY:  Arun Subramanian-clerk for Gerard Lynch (SD-NY), Dennis Jacobs (2nd Circuit), Ginsberg, private practice
ED-MI:  Jonathan Grey-clerk for Louis Sands (MD-GA), Damon Keith (6th Circuit), Magistrate Judge (ED-MI)
CD-IL:  Colleen Lawless-Seventh Judicial Circuit (IL)
ND-CA:  P. Casey Pitts-clerk for Stephen Reinhardt (9th Circuit), private practice
ED-WA:  Charnelle Marie Bjelkengren-Washington State Superior Court
D-CO:  Gordon Gallagher-Magistrate Judge (D-CO)

The Federal Judiciary:

Security:  Attorney General Merrick Garland has refused to enforce the law against protests in front of Supreme Court justices houses, despite public support for enforcing the law.

Affirmative action:  The cases challenging affirmative action policies at University of North Carolina and Harvard will be argued on October 31, shortly before the November election.  Justice Jackson is recused from the latter case.

Alito:  Ed Whelan dismantles Margaret Talbot's article in the New Yorker accusing Justice Alito of various perfidies.

Barrett:  Carrie Severino profiles Justice Barrett's commitment to the rule of law and the Constitution.

Commission:  Some members of President Biden’s commission on the Supreme Court are disappointed he hasn't embraced the report, or even mentioned it.

ND-NY:  Judge David Hurd has withdrawn his senior status declaration.  President Biden nominated Jorge Alberto Rodriguez, who works for the NY attorney general in Albany, to the seat.  He has promised to move to Utica if confirmed.  Hurd insisted that his successor live and work in Utica.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 119 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.
SD-CA: Gonzalo Curiel (Obama) 3/20/23 (senior)
SD-FL: Marcia Cooke (W) 7/15 (senior)
D-CO: Raymond Moore (Obama) 6/20/23 (senior)
D-CT: Stefan Underhill (Clinton) 11/1 (senior)
SD-TX: Micaela Alvarez (W) 6/8/23 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

California:  Governor Gavin Newsom nominated Associate Justice Patricia Guerrero to replace retiring Chief Justice Tani Gorre Cantil-Sakauye.  He also nominated Judge Kelli Evans to replace Guerrero on the court.  Evans, age 53, was appointed by Newsom to the Alameda County Superior Court in 2021, and previously was his chief deputy legal affairs secretary.  This is Newsom's third appointment to the court.

Florida:  Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Judge Renatha Francis to the Florida Supreme Court.  She fills the seat of retiring Justice Alan Lawson.  DeSantis tried to appoint Francis to the court in 2020, but was blocked by the court due to Francis not having 10 years of experience.  This is DeSantis' fourth appointee on the court.

Montana:  The Montana Supreme Court struck down an initiative passed by the legislature to elect the court via districts rather than statewide.  The 5-2 ruling was the latest strike by the liberal court against reforms passed by the conservative legislature.

Nevada:  Nevada Supreme Court Justice Abbi Silver will retire on September 29.  She ran unopposed for her seat in 2018.  The governor will appoint a replacement from three candidates nominated by the Judicial Selection Commission.

New Jersey:  Chief Justice Stuart Rabner named Superior Court Judges Clarkson Fisher Jr., Jack Sabatino, and Douglas Fasciale to temporarily serve on the New Jersey Supreme Court.  The vacancies are part of a long-running dispute between the legislature and Governor Phil Murphy.

North Carolina:  The North Carolina Supreme Court issued a crazy ruling purporting to overturn two constitutional amendments passed by the voters in 2018.  The amendments on voter ID and income tax limitation were put on the ballot by the legislature.  The court claimed that because the map used to elect the legislature was allegedly gerrymandered, the amendments were illegitimate.

Tennessee:  On August 4, all five justices of the Tennessee Supreme Court were retained with between 71% and 74% of the vote.

Resources:

Wednesday, August 03, 2022

2022 Michigan Primary Election Results

2022 Michigan Primary Election Results 

Governor: Dixon 40 Rinke 22 Soldano 19 Kelley 16 Rebrant 4

Congress:
2. (R) Moolenaar 65 Norton 35
3. (R) Gibbs 52 Meijer 48 Meijer's gun-control vote may have done him in
5. (R) Walberg 67 O'Donnell 33
8. (R) Junge 54 Seely 24 Miller 23
10. (R) James 86 (D) Marlinga 49 Powell 17
11. (D) Stevens 60 Levin 40 The pro-Israel candidate won. 
12. (D) Tlaib 64 Winfrey 22
13. (D) Thanedar 28 Hollier 24 Roberson 17 Conyers 9
There will be no black Ds from MI in Congress next year.  However, two black Rs won primaries in competitive seats.

State Senate:
1. (D) Geiss 32 Sanders 23 Liberati 23
There will be only two black senators representing Detroit, only one of whom lives in Detroit.
4. (R) James 41 Frazier 23 Turnout favored Ds in this district.
6. (D) Cavanagh 44 Barnett 36 Brown 20
8. (D) McMorrow 69 Bullock 31
11. (D) Klinefelt 62 Owens 38 Turnout indicates this district is a tossup.
12. (R) Hornberger 65 Williams 35 Turnout favors Rs here.
13. (R) Rhines 69 Williams 31 Turnout indicates this district could be competitive.
14. (D) Shink 68 Wood 27
16. (R) Bellino 52 Clements 48
17. (R) Lindsey 61 LaSata 39 Trump endorsee beats an incumbent.  Lindsey ran a very good campaign.
18. (R) Albert 70 Mancinelli 30
20. (R) Nesbitt 67 Kreutz 21
22. (R) Theis 58 Detmer 42 Big defeat for Trump and Stop the Steal.
27. (D) Cherry 64 Galloway 25
28. (D) Singh 89 (R) Howard 58 Turnout favored Ds here.
35. (R) Glenn 41 Kelly 22 Velasquez 19 Blank 18 Turnout favored Rs here.
37. (R) Damoose 41 Cole 31 Ranville 16 Hindle 12
38. (R) McBroom 77 Wikstrom 13 Huge win for McBroom, who was attacked by Trump.

State House:
4. (D) Whitsett 55 Turner 27
12. (D) Edwards 52 Steenland 48 Surprise upset of an incumbent.
27. (R) Howey 40 Counts 39
28. (R) Thompson 57 Dragone 28
29. (R) DeSana 63 Richert 26
30. (R) Bruck 65 Pirrone 35
31. (D) Miller 80 (R) Biniecki 64 Vallade 36
Turnout narrowly favored Rs in Wayne/Monroe districts 27, 28, 29, and 31.
34. (R) Zorn 39.94 Rank 39.88 A 7-vote margin likely means a recount.
35. (R) Fink 57 Meckley 43 Credible showing by Meckley, who could try again when this seat is open.
36. (R) Carra 40 Solis 21 McGraw 20 Coleman 19 Clear, yet underwhelming win by Carra, who was hurt by his abortive congressional campaign.
38. (R) Whiteford 40 Lucas 38 Rolling 23
 (D) Andrews 54 Brown 46 Turnout narrowly favored Rs here.
39. (R) Wendzel 59 Nilson 41 This was competitive due to much new territory for the incumbent.
42. (R) Hall 71 Mitchell 29
43. (R) Smit 50 Kronemeyer 32 Win for Trump-endorsee.
46. (R) Schmaltz 62 Hugle 38 Turnout favored Rs here.
48. (R) Woolford 53 Negri 47 This district looks like a tossup.
54. (R) Steele 58 Kiesel 42 The credible candidate won here.
 (D) Martini 39 Fakih 35
58. (R) Smith 83
59. (R) Wozniak 52 Mekoski 34 Stop the Steal incumbent defeated by his predecessor.
61. (R) Aiello 85
62. (R) St. Germaine 36 Marino 33
63. (R) DeBoyer 50 Eubanks 29 Defeat for Trump-endorsee.
64. (R) Beeler 67 Eisen 26 Clear result in incumbent v incumbent matchup.
65. (R) Greene 67 Pratt 28
66. (R) Schriver 38 Berlingieri 27 Newby 22
67. (R) Green 25 Tuski 23 Lossing 22 Moore 14 Incumbent barely wins in an almost completely new district.
68. (R) Martin 45 Swanson 27 Miller 21 (D) Hardmon 58
71. (R) BeGole 46 Rathbun 36 Defeat for Trump-endorsee.
78. (R) Johnsen 45 Geiger 30 Barnes 25 Defeat for Trump-endorsed write-in Jon Rocha.
79. (R) Rigas 59 Keeler 29 Win for Trump-endorsee.
84. (R) Milanowski 51 Wetzel 23 Regan 17 Regan won't get the chance to lose another winnable seat.
Turnout looks good for Rs in Grand Rapids area districts 80, 81, 83, 84.
86. (R) De Boer 62 Getz 38
88. (R) VanWoerkom 63 Bricker 37 Defeat for Trump-endorsee against incumbent.
92. (R) Neyer 32 Zimmer 23 Haymaker 21
95. (R) Schuette 64 Manary 31Win for the real R against the D-preferred candidate.
97. (R) Bierlein 59 Wakeman 30 Defeat for incumbent with much new territory.
98. (R) Alexander 35 O'Mara 33 Damrow 29 Alexander wins on the second try against scandal-plagued Damrow.
99. (R) Hoadley 58 Petri 32 Win for Trump-endorsee with DeVos support.
101. (R) Fox 33 Smith 32 Schindlbeck 27
102. (R) VanderWall 59 Sebolt 32
103. (R) O'Malley 75 Cerone 25 (D) Coffia 85
104. (R) Roth 52 Kniss 48 Surprisingly close call for incumbent with much new territory.
105. (R) Borton 56 Morley 19 Randall 19
106. (R) Cavitt 47 Balog 33 Hull 20
107. (R) Friske 42 Fairbairn 35
108. (R) Prestin 43 Simon 29 Hoffman 19
109. (R) Wagner 53 Gray 47 (D) Hill 55 Boogren 45 Turnout wasn't great for Rs here.

Of the non-incumbents Trump endorsed for the legislature, 4 won and 5 lost.

Kalamazoo County Judges:
D'Angelo 36 Barnard 29 Hilgart 23 Jensen 22 Vinales 20 Hohler 8 The top four move on.
Escamilla 25.2 Jones 24.7 Allen 24.5

Monday, August 01, 2022

August 2022 Judiciary News

Breyer tired.

Supreme Court:

Overview:  Carrie Severino gives an overview of the Supreme Court for the past year, which included many victories for constitutionalists.

Alito:  Justice Altio gave a speech scorning criticism of his ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health from foreign leaders.  Their countries have abortion laws that would have been illegal under Roe v Wade.

Barrett:  Dan McLaughin debunks a smear of Justice Amy Coney Barrett by progressive hack Mark Joseph Stern, who laughably claims that she is "in Over Her Head,” and "has floundered on the intellectual sidelines".

Leak:  So far, no information has been released about the investigation into the leak of the draft opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health.

Leftism:  Gerard Baker debunks the left's hyperbolic rhetoric about the Supreme Court 'declaring war' on American, governing, or Earth itself.

Popularity:  Ramesh Ponnuru argues that the Supreme Court giving up its own power will not generate a political backlash.

Polling:  A new poll indicates that abortion is more unpopular when the baby is closer to birth.  Some people's opinions on abortion are inconsistent with support for Roe, indicating that they don't understand what it did.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

9th Circuit:  Biden nominee Roopali Desai serves on the board of Just Communities Arizona (JCA), a group that seeks "a world in which prisons and jails are unnecessary."  It also supports defunding the police, the BDS movement, and mourned the execution of a man who raped and murdered a child.  Her record includes a long list of leftist activism.

ED-KY:  President Biden will not nominate conservative Chad Meredith for a future vacancy.  Reportedly, he would have been nominated as a favor to Senator Mitch McConnell, but was scuttled when Senator Rand Paul would not return a blue slip.  Paul complained that he was not consulted about the deal.  Given that both Biden and Paul seem to be acting against interest, it is easy to suspect that there is more to the story that has not been reported.

Nominations:
1st Circuit:  Julie Rikelman-clerk for Morton Greenberg (3rd Circuit), abortion lawyer
2nd Circuit: Maria Ara├║jo Kahn-clerk for Peter Dorsey (D-CT), Connecticut Supreme Court
D-MA: Myong Joun-Boston Municipal Court
D-MA: Julia Kobick-clerk for Michael Chagares (3rd Circuit), Ruth Bader Ginsburg, MA AG lawyer
SD-OH: Jeffery Hopkins-clerk for Alan Norris (6th Circuit), US Bankruptcy Court (SD-OH)
ND-CA: Rita Lin-clerk for Sandra Lynch (1st Circuit), Superior Court of San Francisco County
ND-CA: Araceli Martinez-Olguin-clerk for David Briones (WD-TX), National Immigration Law Center
ED-CA: Daniel Calabretta-clerk for William Fletcher (9th Circuit), John Paul Stevens, Superior Court of Sacramento County
D-DC:  Todd Edelman-clerk for William Bryant (D-DC), Superior Court of DC

The Federal Judiciary:

Retirements:  Thomas Berry argues that judges should not be able to pick their successors by conditioning their retirements on the selection of a particular candidate.  He suggests several proposals to address this issue.

11th Circuit:  There will be another investigation of Chief Judge Bill Pryor's hiring of a clerk accused of sending racist texts.  Her employer, Turning Point USA, refuted the allegations, and a previous investigation cleared her and Pryor.

SD-TX:  Judge Lynn Hughes has been admonished by the 5th Circuit after banning a female litigator from his courtroom for life.  He has faced allegations of sexism before due to several previous incidents.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 119 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.
SD-CA: Gonzalo Curiel (Obama) 3/20/23 (senior)
SD-FL: Marcia Cooke (W) 7/15 (senior)
D-CO: Raymond Moore (Obama) 6/20/23 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

States:  The fight over abortion is now in state courts.  Many liberal judges have enjoined restrictions on abortion for no legitimate reason.

Alaska:  Chief Justice Daniel Winfree will be age-limited by February 2023.  Seven lawyers have applied to fill the vacancy.  The applicants will be narrowed by the Alaska Judicial Council, and the appointment will be made by governor Mike Dunleavy.  One of the applicants is Judge Paul Roetman, a conservative who was controversially excluded from consideration for the previous vacancy.

California:  Chief Justice Tani Gorre Cantil-Sakauye will not seek reelection, and will retire in November.  She is 62, and was appointed by governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2010.  Governor Gavin Newsom will make his third appointment to the court.

Iowa:  Governor Kim Reynolds appointed Iowa Court of Appeals Judge David May to the Iowa Supreme Court.  He was appointed to the district court 2016 and to the Court of Appeals in 2019.  He replaces Brent Appel, the last D-appointed justice, who was age-limited.  

New York:  New York Court of Appeals Chief Judge Janet DiFiore will retire on August 31.  She was appointed by Andrew Cuomo in 2016.  She was facing an ethics investigation when she announced her retirement.  She is part of a group of four 'conservative' (non-leftist would be a more accurate term) judges (along with Cannatarro, Garcia, and Singas) on the court.  Governor Kathy Hochul will get her second appointment to the court.

Elections:

Tennessee:  On August 4, all five justices of the Tennessee Supreme Court face a retention election.  They are Jeff Bivins, Sarah Campbell, Sharon Lee, Holly Kirby, and Roger A. Page.  Only Lee was appointed by a D governor.

Washington:  On August 2, there is a nonpartisan primary for the Washington Supreme Court.  Justices Mary Yu, G. Helen Whitener, Barbara Madsen are all unopposed for renomination.

Numbers and Trivia:

Retirements:  Harsh Voruganti of the Vetting Room shows that young judges are more likely to leave the bench early, and gives some reasons why.

History:

Conservatism:  Josh Blackman reviews the history of 60 years of Supreme Court appointments by R presidents, and how conservatives finally won after decades of failures.

Resources:

Thursday, July 28, 2022

Kalamazoo Goes to Crap

The city of Kalamazoo has implemented many stupid policies over the years, but this is the worst.  Kalamazoo has eliminated criminal penalties for crapping in public.  The city is quick to note that this is still technically illegal, but it would be a civil infraction (violators get a ticket), not a crime.

Do I even need to explain why this is a bad idea?  The most basic law of economics is that people respond to incentives.  When some activity is penalized, you get less of it.  When it is subsidized (or the penalty is reduced), you get more of it.  This ordinance means there will be more urination and defecation in public.  Obviously, this will be bad for businesses that operate in Kalamazoo.

Further, the idea that tickets are a sufficient penalty is absurd.  Do the bums and hobos who crap in public seem like the sort of people who diligently pay their tickets?  Do they even have enough money that they could?  Thus in effect, crapping in public is now legal in Kalamazoo.

Anyone who wants to know how this will turn out can look to San Francisco.  Except that even San Francisco seems to be rethinking some of its insane progressive policies, and has recalled its DA and three school board members.  We will see how bad Kalamazoo has to get before voters learn their lesson.

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

July 2022 Michigan State House Fundraising

July 22 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Here are summaries of the total amount raised in competitive Michigan state house districts.  Totals include in-kind contributions.  Candidates who filed reporting waivers are generally omitted.  These numbers come from the SOS campaign finance reports.  XX means the report has yet to be filed.

20. (D) Arbit 192K Ferguson 30K Sklar 9K (R) Mansour 3K Mohyi 7K
21. (D) Breen 96K (R) Staudt 39K (20K self) Lawless 27K (25K self)
22. (D) Koleszar 122K (R) Neracher 33K
27. (D) Churches 93K (R) Howey 46K Counts 32K Werner 5K
28. (D) Kull 55K (R) Ammerman 15K Dragone 4K Thompson 9K
29. (D) Garza 85K (R) Ditzhazy $500 DeSana 27K Richert 43K Warzocha 2K
30. (R) Bruck 52K Pirrone 37K
31. (D) Miller 68K (R) Biniecki 27K Vallade 2K
34. (R) Zorn 45K Moore 13K Rank 41K (26K self)
35. (R) Fink 167K Meckley 44K (35K self)
36. (R) Carra 36K Coleman 27K McGraw 114K (82K self) Solis 18K
38. (R) Whiteford 108K (68K self) Lucas 95K (60K self) Rolling 7K
 (D) Andrews 102K Brown 53K
39. (R) Wendzel 90K Nilson 28K
40. (D) Morse 128K (R) Sackett 22K
42. (R) Hall 241K Mitchell 13K (10K self)
43. (R) Smit 124K Joseph 11K Kronemeyer 54K
44. (D) Haadsma 115K (R) Morgan 22K
46. (R) Hugle 7K Schmaltz 40K (D) Imhoff 21K
48. (D) Conlin 188K (R) Negri 32K Woolford 30K
54. (R) Steele 69K Kiesel 10K (D) Fakih 56K Gerson 4K Martini 58K (20K self)
55. (R) Tisdell 71K (D) Oza 42K Bernard 8K
56. (D) MacDonell 16K Peltonen 14K (R) Gunn 12K
57. (R) Kuhn 40K (D) Farooqi 32K
58. (D) Shannon 77K (R) Smith 46K Ndrea XX
59. (R) Wozniak 37K Mekoski 51K on hand
61. (D) Mentzer 20K
62. (R) Marino 27K (25K self) Dubay 12K Germaine 13K Zarife 14K
63. (R) DeBoyer 103K Eubanks 67K
64. (R) Beeler 68K Eisen 27K on hand
65. (R) Greene 67K Wasung 3K
66. (R) Berlingieri 9K Newby 16K (12K self) Schriver 67K Arendoski 4K Shelton XX
67. (R) Green 127K Moore 56K Tuski 18K Glisman 25K (14K self) Lossing 23K (14K self)
68. (R) Martin 71K Miller XX Swanson XX (D) Carter 2K Hardmon 25K
71. (R) Rathbun 44K BeGole 54K Carlin 56K (52K self)
73. (D) Brixie 130K (R) Shinkle 34K
76. (D) Witwer 220K (R) Whittum 2K
78. (R) Barnes 45K Johnsen 55K (18K self) Geiger 16K
79. (R) Rigas 61K Keeler 39K
80. (R) Johnson 55K (51K self) (D) Skaggs 67K Cheng-Schulting 19K
81. (D) Hood 160K (R) Afendoulis 47K
83. (R) DeKryger 25K (D) Courtade 7K Flores 9K Fitzgerald 38K
84. (R) Regan 20K Noordhoek waiver Milanowski 2K Wetzel 151K (all self)
86. (R) De Boer 49K (D) Jackson 25K 
88. (R) VanWoerkom 213K Bricker 36K
92. (R) Haymaker 20K Anderman 2K Neyer 28K Schorle 132K (116K self) Zimmer 47K (D) Feig 35K
95. (R) Schuette 186K Manary 28K
96. (R) Beson 70K (D) Coonan 34K
97. (R) Wakeman 77K Bierlein 34K
98. (R) Alexander 15K Damrow 11K O'Mara 105K (all self) Tahash 1K
99. (R) Hoadley 69K (33K self) Lackie XX Petri 39K
101. (R) Schindlbeck 43K Smith 55K Fox 21K
102. (R) VanderWall 72K Sebolt 14K Roberts 4K
103. (R) O'Malley 152K Cerone 8K (D) Coffia 188K Brodsky 58K
105. (R) Borton 91K McFarlin XX Morley 68K (31K self) Randall 64K (63K self)
106. (R) Balog 21K Cavitt 80K Hull 14K
107. (R) Carr XX Laughbaum XX Fairbairn 136K (60K self) Friske 155K (76K self) Scheel 38K (33K self)
108. (R) Hoffman 43K Prestin 54K (50K self) Simon 48K
109. (D) Boogren 72K Hill 73K (30K self) (R) Wagner 6K Gray 13K

Saturday, July 23, 2022

July 2022 Michigan State Senate Fundraising

July 22 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Here are summaries of the total amount raised in competitive Michigan state senate districts.  Totals include in-kind contributions.  Candidates who filed reporting waivers are generally omitted.  These numbers come from  the SOS campaign finance reports.  XX means the report has yet to be filed.

1. (D) Geiss 102K Liberati 50K (40K self)
4. (D) Camilleri 387K (R) Frazier 2K James 30K
6. (D) Barnett 28K Cavanagh 36K
8. (D) McMorrow 650K Bullock 92K
9. (D) Kuppa 364K (R) Webber 119K
11. (D) Klinefelt 142K Owens XX (R) MacDonald 286K
12. (D) Hertel 187K (R) Hornberger 172K
13. (D) Bayer 309K (R) Rhines 38K Williams 8K
14. (D) Shink 158K Toops XX (R) Golding 77K
16. (R) Bellino 131K Clements 99K
17. (R) LaSata 168K Lindsey 186K
18. (R) Albert 195K
19. (D) McCann 357K (R) Mitchell 10K
20. (R) Nesbitt 298K Hudson 1K Kreutz 24K (14K self)
22. (R) Theis 456K Detmer 22K
27. (D) Cherry 167K
28. (D) Singh 349K (R) Anderson 112K Howard 18K
29. (D) Brinks 235K (R) Brann 134K (103K self)
30. (D) LaGrand 186K (R) Huizenga 344K
32. (D) Sabo 274K (R) Bumstead 247K
34. (R) Hauck 159K
35. (D) Rivet 211K (R) Glenn 308K Kelly 61K (47K self) Blank 155K (all self) Velasquez 164K (69K self)
36. (D) Sheltrown 10K (R) Hoitenga 117K
37. (R) Damoose 194K Cole 104K Hindle 45K (20K self) Ranville 91K (50K self)
38. (R) McBroom 301K

Friday, July 01, 2022

July 2022 Judiciary News

Roe no mo.

Abortion:  

On June 24, the court upheld Mississippi's 15-week abortion ban by a 6-3 vote, and overturned Roe v Wade by a 5-4 vote in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health.  Previously, Politico published a leak of a draft opinion written by Justice Alito.

Ed Whelan reflects on the decision and the movement to overturn Roe, and responds to a critic of the decision.

Threats:  A man was arrested near Justice Kavanaugh's house, intending to murder him.  He found Kavanuagh's address thanks to someone posting it on the internet.  The justices have faced threats and harassment from the left since the leak of the draft decision in Dobbs. 

Lies:  Leftists are accusing Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh of committing perjury in their confirmation hearings.  This despite the fact that they never said they supported Roe, nor that they would never overturn a precedent.  Pro-choice R Senator Susan Collins has said she feels misled by the justices.

Polling:  Polls indicate that a majority of the public supports keeping Roe v Wade, but also supports restrictions on abortion that are not allowed under Roe.  This indicates that the public does not understand what Roe actually does.

States:  The fight over abortion will head to state courts, making many supreme court races even more heated.  The article has a map of which state courts have declared abortion a right in their states.

Iowa:  The Iowa Supreme Court overturned a ruling from 2018 that Iowa's constitution contains a right to abortion.  Governor Kim Reynolds has appointed four justices since 2018.

Supreme Court:

Roberts:  The media continues to troll Chief Justice John Roberts with the claim that he "lost control of the court".  This despite the fact that his job is administration, not dictating the votes of the other justices.

Breyer:  Justice Breyer retired from the court on June 30.  He was appointed to the 1st Circuit by Carter in 1980 and to the Supreme Court by Clinton in 1994.  Ketanji Brown Jackson was sworn in to replace him.

Bearing arms:  The court ruled 6-3 against New York's 'may issue' rule for concealed carry permits that required applicants to show a special need to carry a weapon for self-defense.  The court left open what restrictions on bearing arms are allowable, but made it harder to uphold other gun control laws.

Religious schools:  The court ruled 6-3 that the state of Maine could not discriminate against religious schools when funding private high schools.

Prayer:  The court ruled 6-3 that a coach could not be fired for holding a voluntary prayer after football games.  It overruled the case Lemon v. Kurtzman, which had the effect of restricting religious liberty.

EPA:  The court ruled 6-3 that the EPA court not regulate carbon emissions without authorization from Congress, limiting the power of the bureaucracy.

Constitution:  Ramesh Ponnuru explains that the reason that conservative policies have been advanced by the Supreme Court is that the Constitution is conservative.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Nominations:  Biden has filled judgeships at a fast pace, thanks to many district court vacancies.  However, the pace may be slowing down.  The article has lots of related statistics.

Nominations:  Some experts think that Biden will not be able to fill all existing circuit court vacancies before the end of the year.  We can only hope.

Hispanics:  President Biden nominated Bradley Garcia to the DC Circuit shortly after MALDEF attacked him for "ongoing shabby treatment of the Latino community" for not nominating enough Hispanics to judgeships.

ED-KY:  Judge Karen Caldwell will take senior status, and President Biden is reportedly planning to nominated Chad Meredith to replace her.  He is a conservative close to Senator Mitch McConnell who was considered for a judgeship in 2020.  This is apparently part of some larger deal, but local Ds are not happy.

CD-IL:  Senators Durbin and Duckworth recommended candidates for a judgeship in CD-IL, even though there is no announced vacancy there.  Judge Sue Myerscough is eligible for senior status.

Nominations:
3rd Circuit:  Tamika Renee Montgomery-Reeves-justice, Delaware Supreme Court
ED-MI:  Frances Kay Behm-judge, Genesee County Circuit

The Federal Judiciary:

5th Circuit:  Schadenfreude alert!  Texas Monthly has a long article attacking judges Willett, Ho, Oldham, and Duncan for being too conservative.

7th Circuit:  Judge Michael Kanne passed away on June 16 at age 83.  He was appointed to ND-IN in 1982 and the 7th Circuit in 1987, both by Reagan.  In 2018, he announced that he would take senior status, but withdrew after his former law clerk, Indiana Solicitor General Tom Fisher, was not nominated.  It is unclear whether Biden will be able to fill the seat this year.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 119 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.
DC Circuit: Judith Rogers (Clinton) 9/1 (senior)
7th Circuit: Michael Kanne (Reagan) 6/16 (death)
WD-TX: David Guaderama (Obama) 5/27/23 (senior)
D-NJ: Freda Wolfson (W) 2/1/23 (retired)
ED-KY: Karen Caldwell (W) TBD (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Florida:  The Florida Judicial Nominating Commission selected 6 finalists out of 17 applicants for the opening on the Florida Supreme Court caused by the retirement of Justice Alan Lawson.  One of the finalists is Judge Renatha Francis, who Governor Ron DeSantis tried to appoint to an earlier vacancy, but was rejected due to insufficient experience.  Sources indicate that DeSantis is planning to appoint Francis this time.

Indiana:  Governor Eric Holcomb appointed Judge Derek Molter to the Indiana Supreme Court.  He was appointed to the Indiana Court of Appeals in October 2021 after years in private practice.  He will fill the vacancy caused by the upcoming retirement of Justice Steven David.

Iowa:  Justice Brent Appel will leave the court on July 13, when he is age-limited.  He is the last remaining D appointed judge on the court.  The Judicial Nominating Commission nominated three finalists out of the five applicants for the position.  They are "Iowa Court of Appeals Judge David May, District 1A Judge Alan Heavens of Garnavillo, and attorney William Miller".  Governor Kim Reynolds will make her fifth appointment to the court.

New Jersey:  Liberal New Jersey Supreme Court justice Barry Albin will be age-limited on July 7.  This will be the third open seat on the court.  Governor Phil Murphy nominated Rachel Wainer Apter to an open seat in March 2021, but state senator Holly Schepisi (R) is holding up the nomination.

Utah:  Governor Spencer Cox nominated Judge Jill Pohlman to the Utah Supreme Court seat being vacated by Justice Thomas Lee.  She clerked for Judge David Winder (D-UT) and was appointed to the Utah Court of Appeals in 2016.

Virginia:  The Virginia legislature agreed to a compromise to fill the seats on the Virginia Supreme Court vacated by Justices Donald Lemons and William Mims.  Virginia Court of Appeals Judge Wesley Russell Jr., age 52, who was a deputy AG under Ken Cuccinelli, will succeed Lemons.  Thomas Mann, a Fairfax County judge since 2016, will succeed Mims.

Elections:

June election results in contested races:

Illinois:  On June 28, there were partisan primaries for two seats on the Illinois Supreme Court.
District 2 (Lake, McHenry, Kane, DeKalb, Kendall):  Former Lake County sheriff Mark Curran won the R nomination with 30% to 28% to 19th Circuit Court judge Daniel Shanes.  The D nominee is 9th Circuit Court judge Elizabeth Rochford, who won 44% of the vote.  There were more votes in the R primary, which could be a good sign for November.
District 3 (DuPage, Will, etc.):  Justice Michael J. Burke (R) will face 3rd District Appellate Court Judge Mary O'Brien (D) in November.

Montana:   On June 7, Justice Ingrid Gustafson got 48% to 36% for MT GOP counsel and PSC President James Brown and 15% for Judge Mike McMahon.  Gustafson (D-aligned) and Brown (R-aligned) advance to the general election in November.
Justice James Rice got 76% to 24% for Bill D'Alton. Both will continue on to the November election.

Numbers and Trivia:

Here are the numbers of senior status declarations/retirements for federal judges (circuit judges) for the past year.
1 (0) December 2020
20 (3) January
19 (3) February
8 (3) March
7 (1) April
8 (5) May
4 (0) June
5 (2) July
4 (2) August
2 (0) September
5 (3) October
7 (1) November
9 (7) December 2021
14 (4) January 2022
4 (0) February 
3 (2) March 
6 (0) April 
5 (0) May 
5 (2) June 

136 (38) Total

Resources:

Friday, June 10, 2022

2022 Michigan State House Races

Last updated June 10, 2022.

All 110 seats in the Michigan Senate are up for election in 2022.  Republicans won a 58-52 majority in 2020, unchanged from 2018.  Rs have controlled the house since 2010.  

Michigan has a new state house map, thanks to the Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew lines that split many counties and split Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, and the Lansing area to benefit Ds.  Other districts have strange shapes for no clear reason.

The existing map has ten black-majority districts based in Detroit, plus one in Southfield and one in Flint.  This map has only six black-majority districts based in Detroit/Southfield (4, 5, 6, 9, 16, 18), and one in Flint (70).  There are nine districts between 40% and 50% black (1, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17).  There are 15 districts that are partly but not wholly contained in Detroit, up from 7 in the existing map.  No district is completely in Detroit.

Michigan Redistricting: State House Map Approved



Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and MICRC.

Michigan State House Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan State House Map-MICRC


Several incumbents had to move to avoid unfriendly districts or primaries with other incumbents.  There are 53 open seats; 36 state reps are term-limited.  A bunch of state reps are running for state senate or other offices, and two just retired.  There will be one incumbent-v-incumbent primary.  There will also be many interesting general election races. 

President Trump endorsed eight candidates for Michigan state house.  One (Maddock) is an incumbent, one (Rocha) was disqualified, and one (Bricker) is challenging an incumbent.  In addition, several candidates are tying themselves closely to Trump (a MAGA platform) and others are promoting conspiracy theories about the 2020 election (a Stop the Steal platform).  Michigan Right to Life has made endorsements that may have an impact in some races.  Some incumbents are running in substantially different districts (39, 67, 88, 97, 105) and may be vulnerable to primary challengers.

Consider the districts in detail.  The election data for each district is the R candidates for President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)  Additional information on the races comes from Gongwer and RepublicanMichigander.


1. [S Detroit] Safe D
P16: 7 G18: 7 AG18: 8 P20: 11
This district has a strong claim to be the most diverse in Michigan, and has successively had black, Hispanic, Jewish, Muslim, Chinese, and black representatives.  Tyrone Carter (D) was elected in 2018.  Jermaine Tobey is also seeking the D nomination.  Incumbent rep. (18-22) Cynthia Johnson (D) filed here, but was disqualified due to campaign finance problems.  Paula Campbell will be the R nominee.

2. [Southgate, Allen Park] Safe D
P16: 43 G18: 37 AG18: 38 P20: 43
The downriver area has moved right under Trump, but is more D downballot.  Tullio Liberati (D), younger brother of rep (14-20) Frank Liberati, was elected in 2020.  Michael D'Onofrio and Ronald Kokinda are seeking the R nomination.

3. [central Dearborn, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 21 G18: 20 AG18: 20 P20: 21
Rep. (16-21) Abdullah Hammoud (D) was elected mayor of Dearborn in 2021.  Attorney Jeffrey Pepper (D) won a 2022 special election to replace him, but will not seek a full term.  Community organizer Alabas Farhat lost the 2022 special election primary to Pepper.  Federal bureaucrat Sam Luqman and Khalil Othman are also seeking the D nomination.  Ginger Shearer will be the R nominee.

4. [E Dearborn, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 6 G18: 5 AG18: 5 P20: 8
Community organizer Karen Whitsett (D) was first elected in 2018.  She made headlines in 2020 after calling the house D leader racist and praising President Trump after recovering from coronavirus.  She won renomination in 2020 with 45% against a split field.  She has not attracted much attention in her second term.  She is being challenged for the D nomination by Gus Tarraf and Lori Lynn Turner.  Tonya Renay Wells will be the R nominee.

5. [Birmingham, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 20 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 21
This particularly absurd district is one of four that are thin strips from Detroit to Oakland County.  It has a chunk of Detroit, slices through Oak Park to the mostly white suburb of Birmingham (with precincts from Southfield, Royal Oak, and Berkley).
Radio braodcaster Reggie Reg Davis lost a 2020 D state house primary. Steele Hughes lost a 2020 D state house primary. Ksenia Milstein, Berkley City Councilmember Natalie Price, and GVSU professor Michelle Wooddell are also seeking the D nomination.  Keith Albertie and Paul Taros are seeking the R nomination.

6. [Oak Park, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 16 G18: 16 AG18: 16 P20: 16
This is one of four districts that are thin strips from Detroit to Oakland County.  Oak Park City Council Member Regina Weiss (D) was elected in 2020.  Account manager Myya Jones lost a race for mayor of Detroit in 2021.  Mark Murphy lost D primaries for state house in 2012 and 2018.  Danielle Hall is also seeking the D nomination.  Charles Villerot will be the R nominee.

7. [Royal Oak, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 16 G18: 16 AG18: 16 P20: 17
This is one of four districts that are thin strips from Detroit to Oakland County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  Helena Scott (D), a legislative staffer, was elected in 2020.  Royal Oak City Commissioner Melanie Macey and Grant Rivet are also seeking the D nomination.  There is no R candidate.

8. [Madison Heights, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 21 G18: 19 AG18: 20 P20: 23
This is one of four districts that are thin strips from Detroit to Oakland County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  Ernest Little lost a 2012 D primary for state house.  Hazel Park City Councilmember Mike McFall has some D establishment support.  Ryan Nelson lost a 2020 D state house primary.  Madison Heights councilman David Soltis and community organizer Durrel Douglas are also seeking the D nomination.  Robert Noble and Attie Pollard are seeking the R nomination.

9. [E Detroit] Safe D
P16: 5 G18: 6 AG18: 5 P20: 7
Hamtramck city commissioner Abraham Aiyash (D), a pro-Bernie Sanders progressive, was elected in 2020.  Auto mechanic Abraham Shaw finished ninth in the 2020 D primary for this seat, and seventh in the 2016 D primary.  Darnell Gardner, William Phillips, and Paul Smith are also seeking the D nomination.  Michele Lundgren will be the R nominee.

10. [Grosse Pointes, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 32 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
This district reunites the Grosse Pointes (a clear community of interest), but combines them with part of Detroit, making it unlikely that they can elect a candidate of their choice.  Joe Tate (D) was elected in 2018, and is expected to be the next house D leader.  Toni Mua is also seeking the D nomination.  Mark Corcoran will be the R nominee.

11. [St. Clair Shores, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 33 G18: 30 AG18: 31 P20: 33
This is one of five districts containing part of Detroit and Macomb County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  There are nine D candidates.  Patrick Biange lost a 2020 D primary for state house.  Businessman Paul Francis lost a 2016 D primary for state house, and lost a 2018 senate race as the D nominee.  Harper Woods Council Member Regina Williams lost a 2018 D state senate primary.  Motivational speaker Marvin Cotton Jr, engineer Alex Manwell, David Maynard, Harper Woods Council Member Veronica Paiz, court clerk Athena Lynn Thornton, and government staffer Ricardo White are also seeking the D nomination.  Mark Foster and Christopher Jeffery are seeking the R nomination.

12. [Eastpointe, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 26 AG18: 27 P20: 31
This is one of five districts containing part of Detroit and Macomb County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  Roseville City Clerk Rich Steenland (D) was elected in 2020.  Kimberly Edwards is also seeking the D nomination.  Diane Saber will be the R nominee.

13. [E Warren, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 34 G18: 31 AG18: 32 P20: 35
This is one of five districts containing part of Detroit and Macomb County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  Lori Stone (D) was elected in 2018 to a district covering most of Warren.  Detroit resident Myles Miller, former staffer for rep LaTanya Garrett, is also seeking the D nomination.  Ronald Singer will be the R nominee.

14. [W Warren, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 27 G18: 24 AG18: 25 P20: 29
This is one of five districts containing part of Detroit and Macomb County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  It combines territory from the districts of Shri Thanedar (D), who is leaving to run for congress, and Lori Stone, who is running in an adjacent district.  Activist Donavan McKinney has significant D establishment support.  He finished second in a 2020 D state house primary to Thanedar, and also lost a primary in 2016.  Center Line city councilman Aaron Delikta and veteran Kristina Lodovisi are also seeking the D nomination.  Wendy Jo Watters will be the R nominee.

15. [Dearborn Heights, W Dearborn] Safe D
P16: 39 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
This district has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Journalist Afaf Ahmad, Dearborn City Councilmember Erin Byrnes, and activist Bilal Hammoud are seeking the D nomination.  Steven Mackie will be the R nominee.

16. [SE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 23 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 23
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Stephanie Young (D) was elected to a district entirely within Detroit in 2020.  Ishmail Terry, a staffer for Rep. Karen Whitsett, is also seeking the D nomination.  He previously lost a state house primary in 2014.  Keith Jones and Gabriel Rees are seeking the R nomination.

17. [NE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 30 P20: 31
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Laurie Pohutsky (D) is a progressive who was first elected to a swing district based in Livonia in 2018.  Penny Crider, who lost a state house primary in 2020, will be the R nominee.  Her husband will be the R nominee for state senate district 6.

18. [Southfield, Farmington] Safe D
P16: 19 G18: 18 AG18: 19 P20: 20
Kyra Bolden (D), who was elected in 2018, is running for Michigan Supreme Court.  Southfield City Councilman Jason Hoskins has most D establishment support.  Congressional staffer Caprice Jackson is also seeking the D nomination.  Wendy Webster Jackson will be the R nominee.

19. [N Farmington Hills, S Bloomfield Twp] Safe D
P16: 33 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
Farmington Hills City Council member Samantha Steckloff (D) was elected in 2020.  This district changed shape significantly, but the partisan numbers didn't change much.  Anthony Paesano will be the R nominee.

20. [W Bloomfield Twp.] Lean D
P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 41 P20: 43
Ryan Berman (R), first elected in 2018, did not seek reelection.  He unsuccessfully sought the R endorsement for AG.  This district added some of the current district of retiring rep. Mari Manoogian (D), moving significantly left.  Political activist Noah Arbit, West Bloomfield School Board Trustee Ken Ferguson, and lawyer and political staffer James Sklar are seeking the D nomination.  Realtor Albert Mansour and lawyer Diana Mohyi are seeking the R nomination.

21. [Novi] Lean D
P16: 45.3 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.9 P20: 42.4
Novi city councilmember Kelly Breen (D) flipped this historically conservative seat D in 2020.  The new district moved several points left.  Novi Mayor Pro Tem David Staudt and businessman Daniel Lawless are seeking the R nomination.

22. [W Livonia, Plymouth, Northville] Tossup
P16: 50 G18: 46.8 AG18: 49.7 P20: 47.2
Matt Koleszar (D) was first elected in 2018, flipping a historically R seat that moved left under Trump.  This district moved several points right compared to Koleszar's old district.  Businesswoman Cathryn Neracher will be the R nominee.  Livonia Councilman Rob Donovic filed here, but was disqualified due to residency issues. 

23. [E Ann Arbor, South Lyon] Safe D
P16: 35 G18: 35 AG18: 37 P20: 34
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, Ann Arbor was split into four pieces.  This particularly absurd district has a slice of Ann Arbor, R-leaning Salem Township, South Lyon from Oakland County, and parts of Plymouth and Northville Townships in Wayne County.  Washtenaw County Commissioner Jason Morgan will be the D nominee.  Richard Sharland will be the R nominee.

24. [Canton Twp] Safe D
P16: 41 G18: 37 AG18: 40 P20: 38
Ranjeev Puri (D) was elected in 2020.  John Anthony will be the R nominee.

25. [Westland, Wayne] Safe D
P16: 40 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 40
Kevin Coleman (D) was first elected in 2018.  Scott Barlow will be the R nominee.

26. [Garden City, Inkster, N Romulus] Safe D
P16: 32 G18: 27 AG18: 28 P20: 34
Scandal-plagued rep. Jewell Jones (D) is term limited.  Inkster City Councilmember Steven Chisholm, Stephen Patterson, teacher Dylan Wegela, and UAW staffer Allen Wilson are seeking the D nomination.  James Townsend will be the R nominee.

27. [Trenton, Grosse Ile] Tossup
P16: 51.5 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.7 P20: 51.3
The downriver area has many working class voters who have moved right under Trump.  Teacher Jaime Churches will be the D nominee.  Trenton City Councilmember Bob Howey lost a race for state house by less than 1% in 2016.  Police officer Kevin Counts, insurance agent Dave Kachinosky, Peter Rommel, and mortgage loan officer Lisa Werner are also seeking the R nomination.

28. [NE Monroe, Brownstown Twp] Tossup
P16: 51.5 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.6 P20: 51.9
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Veterans Affairs Director Robert Kull will be the D nominee.  Nonprofit executive Virgie Ammerman, Nicone Dragone, and nurse Jamie Thompson are seeking the R nomination.

29. [Taylor, Huron] Tossup
P16: 51.6 G18: 44.3 AG18: 46.3 P20: 53
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Alex Garza (D) was first elected in 2018.  He lost an election for mayor of Taylor in 2021.  Sam Ditzhazy is running on a MAGA platform.  Sales manager James DeSana, Huron school board member Jack Richert, and auto technician Brian Warzocha are also seeking the R nomination.

30. [S Monroe] Safe R
P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 60
Bedford Township trustee TC Clements, who was elected in 2020, is leaving to run for state senate.  Army veteran William Bruck and Bedford Township Supervisor Paul Pirrone are seeking the R nomination.  Suzanne Jennens will be the D nominee.

31. [N Monroe, Belleville] Lean D
P16: 47.4 G18: 42.1 AG18: 44.1 P20: 48.8
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It combines heavily D parts of Wayne with rural R areas of Monroe.  Van Buren Township Trustee Reggie Miller has most D establishment support.  Glenn Morrison Jr is also seeking the D nomination.  Truck driver Dale Biniecki and Holli Vallade are seeking the R nomination.

32. [Ypsilanti] Safe D
P16: 22 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 22
Ronnie Peterson (D) is term limited.  Ypsilanti Township Trustee Jimmie Wilson Jr. has much D establishment support.  Attorney Robyn Lynn McCoy has Peterson's endorsement.  Marshall Averill, Roderick Casey, Sr., Isaac London, and Carol Smith are also seeking the D nomination.  Martin Church will be the R nominee.

33. [S Ann Arbor, Pittsfield Twp] Safe D
P16: 25 G18: 24 AG18: 26 P20: 23
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships.  County Commissioner Felicia Brabec (D) was elected in 2020.  The R nominee will be Robert Borer III.

34. [Lenawee] Safe R
P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 54 P20: 58
Bronna Khale (R) is term limited.  State senator (14-22) Dale Zorn was previously a state rep (10-14).  He is termed out of the state senate, but can still serve one more term in the state house.  He is running in Lenawee County rather than in Monroe County, which he previously represented.  Nurse Julie Moore and retired fire chief Ryan Rank are also seeking the R nomination.  John Dahlgren will be the D nominee.

35. [Hillsdale, Branch] Safe R
P16: 69 G18: 64 AG18: 66 P20: 71
This district was almost unchanged, adding only the city of Hudson.  Attorney Andrew Fink (R) was elected in 2020.  He launched a leadership bid, but later dropped it.  He has a MAGA challenger, farmer Steve Meckley.  The D nominee will be Andrew Watkins.

36. [St. Joseph, Cass] Safe R
P16: 63 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 65
Steve Carra (R) was first elected in 2020.  After congressman Fred Upton voted for impeachment, Carra announced a run against him, and was endorsed by President Trump.  Redistricting took Carra out of the new district, and added the base of Congressman Bill Huizenga, who ran for the seat.  President Trump then offered a "complete and total" endorsement of Huizenga.  While not explicitly un-endorsing Carra, this served to push him out of the race, and he chose to run for reelection.  Upton decided not to seek reelection.
While Carra was running for Congress, several other candidates launched campaigns for this seat.  One is former Kalamazoo county commissioner and Kalamazoo GOP chairman Scott McGraw, who moved to the district shortly before announcing his campaign.  Navy veteran Jack Coleman finished second to Carra in the 2020 R primary, then lost a write-in campaign in the general.  Jerry Solis is a pastor with many endorsements from local political leaders.  All three are credible, but Carra will likely win renomination due to split opposition.

37. [S Berrien, W Cass] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore and added more of interior Berrien County.  Teacher Brad Paquette (R) was first elected in 2018.  JD Haughey is also seeking the R nomination.  Naomi Ludman will be the D nominee.

38. [Berrien to Allegan lakeshore] Lean D
P16: 46.1 G18: 44.9 AG18: 46.5 P20: 44.6
This absurd district runs about 75 miles along the Lake Michigan shoreline from New Buffalo to Saugatuck.  It is barely a mile wide at one point.  Apparently, people who live close to a lake form a community of interest.  This district promotes "partisan fairness" since it favors Ds.
One R candidate is accountant Kevin Whiteford, the husband of term-limited Allegan County state rep (16-22) Mary Whiteford.  The other R candidates are realtor George Steven Lucas and Troy Rolling, who lost state house bids in N Berrien in 2016 and 2018.  The D candidates are Joey Andrews, an AFL-CIO operative who lost a bid for state house in N Berrien in 2018, and former South Haven school board member Annie Brown, who lost bids for state house in Van Buren in 2014 and 2016.
39. [Van Buren] Safe R
P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore of Van Buren and added parts of Berrien and Allegan.  Pauline Wendzel (R), a businesswoman who was elected to a N Berrien district in 2018, is running here after her district was split into several pieces.  Matt Nilson, who lost a previous state house bid in the 2016 primary, is also running.  Jared Polonowski will be the D nominee.

40. [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas] Lean D
P16: 42 G18: 41 AG18: 44.6 P20: 40
This area was R-held until 2020, when county commissioner Christine Morse (D) won an open seat. It has a lot of upscale suburban areas that have moved left under Trump.  The new district loses R areas of Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde, and Oshtemo precinct 1 and adds two precincts in Kalamazoo.  The R candidate is Kalamazoo GOP vice-chair Kelly Sackett, who protested school mask mandates.  This district is a long shot, but could be competitive if suburbs return to voting R.

41. [Kalamazoo city] Safe D
P16: 23 G18: 22 AG18: 24 P20: 23
County commissioner Julie Rogers (D) was elected in 2020 after losing earlier bids in 2006 and 2008.  The R candidates are Terry Haines and Ben Stanley.
42. [rural Kalamazoo, Plainwell] Safe R
P16: 52.9 G18: 49.4 AG18: 53.2 P20: 52.6
This district includes about half of the district currently represented by Matt Hall, along with parts of three other districts.  Hall was first elected in 2018, defeating a moderate incumbent, and is now in line to be the R leader next term.  He moved here from Calhoun County after being put in the same district as Sarah Lightner (R) of Jackson County.  She refused to move, but eventually agreed to drop her own leadership bid and support Hall.  Chemist Gary Mitchell, who lost in the Kalamazoo city-based district in 2020, is running on a Stop the Steal platform.  The D nominee will be Justin Mendoza.

43. [Allegan, S Barry] Safe R
P16: 67 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 69
This absurd district includes the majority of Allegan County, southern Barry County, one township from Eaton County, and part of a township in Ottawa County.  Allegan incumbent reps Mary Whiteford and Steve Johnson are both term-limited.
Martin Township Clerk Rachelle Smit has the Trump endorsement.  Unlike many other Trump endorsees, she has excellent fundraising.  Also seeking the R nomination are Nevin Cooper-Keel, wrestling coach Phillip Joseph, and commercial risk advisor Lindsay Kronemeyer.  Given Allegan County's history of voting for anti-establishment reps (Fulton Sheen, Cindy Gamrat, Steve Johnson), Smit is likely the favorite here.  Mark Ludwig will be the D nominee.

44. [Battle Creek, Albion] Tossup
P16: 48.1 G18: 44.4 AG18: 47.3 P20: 49.4
This district was drawn as a gerrymander to put the most D areas of Calhoun in one district to protect then-speaker Jase Bolger (R) in a neighboring district.  Incredibly, the redistricting commission maintained this gerrymander.  County commissioner Jim Haadsma (D) was elected to this open seat in 2018.  For the third straight election, the R candidate will be Dave Morgan, who lost with 48.2% in 2018 and 48.7% in 2020.  Morgan was the Calhoun dem chairman and lost state house races in 2010 and 2014 as a D, before serving as Pennfield Township supervisor as an R 2016-20.
45. [S Calhoun, W Jackson] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Sarah Lightner (R) was first elected in 2018 in a rural Jackson County district.  The new district includes the majority of the current district represented by Matt Hall (R).  Lightner refused to move, but eventually agreed to drop her own leadership bid and support Hall.  The D nominee will be Ron Hawkins, who has lost previous bids for state house in 2018 and 2020.

46. [Jackson city] Tossup
P16: 48 G18: 44.4 AG18: 46.8 P20: 49.1
This district was gerrymandered by adding Chelsea in Washtenaw County and removing rural R townships.  Julie Alexander (R) is term limited.  Former Au Sable Township (in Iosco County) Treasurer Kimberly Sheppard Hugle and broadcaster Kathy Schmaltz are seeking the R nomination.  AFL-CIO staffer Maurice Imhoff, who is age 20, will be the D nominee.

47. [W Ann Arbor, SW Jackson] Safe D
P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson County.  Rep. Donna Lasinski (D) lives here, but is term limited.  Social work lecturer Carrie Rheingans has most establishment support.  Union organizer James Johnson Jr. is also seeking the D nomination.  Tina Bednarski-Lynch and Teresa Spiegelberg are seeking the R nomination.
48. [N Ann Arbor, SC Livingston] Tossup
P16: 48.1 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.5 P20: 46.6
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson and Livingston Counties.  Journalist Jennifer Conlin will be the D nominee.  Attorney and Hamburg Township Treasurer Jason Negri and Marine veteran and pastor Jason Woolford are seeking the R nomination.

49. [SE Livington, Wixom] Safe R
P16: 54.9 G18: 51.2 AG18: 53.7 P20: 53.2
Ann Bollin was first elected in 2018.  Chase Turner, who lost bids for state house in Oakland County in 2018 and 2020, attempted to run here, but was disqualified due to campaign finance issues.  The D nominee will be Jennifer Conlin.

50. [N, W Livingston] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Former Livingston County Sheriff Bob Bezotte (R) was elected in 2020.  Glen Miller will be the D nominee.

51. [White Lake, Milford] Safe R
P16: 61 G18: 56 AG18: 58 P20: 59
Matt Maddock, an antiestablishment leader who has the Trump endorsement, was first elected in 2018.  He has floated running for R leader.  Sarah May-Seward is the D candidate.

52. [Waterford, Independence] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 53 AG18: 56 P20: 57
Police officer Mike Harris (R) was elected in a 2022 special election, following the death of Andrea Schroeder.  Robin McGregor will be the D nominee.

53. [Pontiac, S Waterford] Safe D
P16: 30 G18: 28 AG18: 29 P20: 32
Brenda Carter (D) was first elected in 2018.  Waterford Township Trustee Anthony Bartolotta is a surprisingly credible candidate for this seat.  He previously lost the 2018 R primary for a state house seat to Andrea Schroeder.

54. [N Bloomfield, Auburn Hills, Orion] Lean R
P16: 51.2 G18: 48.4 AG18: 50.8 P20: 48.3
This is a rare example of a good draw for Rs (though not very compact), which puts shaky territory in Bloomfield Township with more R Orion Township to the north.  Orion Township Treasurer and realtor Donni Steele has most R establishment support.  Businesswoman Sandy Kiesel is running on a Stop the Steal platform.  Defense attorney and Bloomfield Township Trustee Stephanie Fakih, teacher Gary Gerson, and businesswoman Shadia Martini are seeking the D nomination.

55. [Rochester Hills] Lean R
P16: 50.9 G18: 48.2 AG18: 51.1 P20: 48.1
This historically conservative wealthy suburban seat has trended left under Trump.  Rochester Hills City Council member Mark Tisdell (R) won a highly competitive general election in 2020.  Community organizer Neil Oza seems to have most D establishment support.  Businesswoman Patricia Bernard is also seeking the D nomination.
56. [Troy] Lean D
P16: 45.1 G18: 42 AG18: 44.6 P20: 41.3
This wealthy suburban seat has trended left under Trump.  Padma Kuppa (D), first elected in 2018, is running for state senate.  The D candidates are marketing manager Sharon MacDonell and Cyndi Peltonen, who lost previous bids for state senate in 2014 and this seat in 2016.  Businessman Mark Gunn will be the R nominee.

57. [W Sterling Heights] Lean R
P16: 52 G18: 46.4 AG18: 48.4 P20: 53.1
Diana Farrington (R) is term limited.  Valet trainer Marcia Squier was the Green Party nominee for US Senate in 2018 and 2020.  Aisha Farooqi is also seeking the D nomination.  Oakland County Commissioner and attorney Thomas Kuhn will be the R nominee.

58. [E Sterling Heights] Tossup
P16: 52.5 G18: 45.4 AG18: 48 P20: 52.1
This district is very oddly shaped for no clear reason.  Nate Shannon (D) was first elected in 2018.  He defeated a deeply flawed R opponent 53-47 in 2020.  Businesswoman Michelle Smith and Giovanni Ndrea are seeking the R nomination.

59. [Shelby Twp] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 61 P20: 63
State rep (18-21) Doug Wozniak won a 2021 special election for a Macomb-based state senate seat.  Terence Mekoski, a retired police officer who finished third in the R primary won by Wozniak, then won the special election to replace him.  Redistricting put Wozniak in the same district as Senator Ruth Johnson, and he chose to run for state house against Mekoski.  Wozniak is an establishment R, while Mekoski has run on a Stop the Steal platform.
Frank Cusumano, who lost the 2010 R primary for state house, is running on an anti-tax platform.  James Diez will be the D nominee.

60. [Macomb Twp] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 51.4 AG18: 55 P20: 58
Jeff Yaroch (R) is term limited.  Former Clinton Townshp Trustee Joseph Aragona will be the R nominee.  Stop the Steal activist Mellissa Carone moved to this district from Wayne County intending to run for state house, but she was disqualified from the ballot due to failure to file campaign finance reports.  Linda Clor and Carol Diehl are seeking the D nomination.

61. [Clinton Twp] Lean D
P16: 50.3 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.8 P20: 49.5
This district moved slightly right, losing SW Clinton Township.  William Sowerby (D) is term limited.
Mount Clemens City Commissioner Denise Mentzer will be the D nominee.  Chiropractor Mike Aiello is seeking the R nomination after being disqualified when he ran for state house in 2016.  Austin Negipe lost R primaries for this seat in 2016 and 2020.

62. [Harrison Twp] Lean R
P16: 52.8 G18: 46.1 AG18: 48.2 P20: 52.7
Compared to the old district containing Harrison Township, this district moved left a few points.  Steve Marino (R) is term limited.  His reputation was badly damaged by revelations that he had an affair with Rep. Mari Manoogian (D) and had made bizarre threats against her.  He was removed from his committees, but was not charged with a crime.
Steve's father Joe Marino is seeking the R nomination, along with L’Anse Creuse school board president Hilary Dubay, Alicia St. Germaine, and financial advisor Rola Zarife.  Michael Brooks will be the D nominee.

63. [Chesterfield Twp, S St. Clair] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 65
Pamela Hornberger is term limited and running for state senate.  Jacky Eubanks, a staffer for Lisa McClain, has the Trump endorsement and is running on a Stop the Steal platform.  She has also endorsed banning birth control.  St. Clair County Clerk Jay DeBoyer and Algonac City Councilman Jake Skarbek are also seeking the R nomination.  Democrat Kelly Noland and Jamie Murray will be the D nominee.

64. [E St. Clair] Safe R
P16: 58 G18: 49.5 AG18: 52.6 P20: 59
R incumbents Andrew Beeler (20-P) and Gary Eisen (18-P) both live here and are running here, even though there are several neighboring seats that are open, and either could have moved.  Beeler was previously a Navy reservist, while Eisen was a firearms instructor.  John Mahaney, who lost R state house primaries in 2018 and 2020, is also seeking the R nomination.  Charles Howell will be the D nominee.

65. [W St. Clair, E Lapeer] Safe R
P16: 70 G18: 62 AG18: 65 P20: 71
This district has pieces of the old districts of Gary Howell, Pamela Hornberger, and Jeff Yaroch, who are all term limited, and Gary Eisen, who is running in a Port Huron area district.  Navy veteran and Richmond City Councilmember Jaime Greene, farmer Michael Pratt, who finished fifth in a 2018 R state house primary, and businessman Frank Wasung are all seeking the R nomination.  Mark Lingeman and Robert Majchrzak are seeking the D nomination.

66. [NE Oakland] Safe R
P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Rep. John Reilly (R) is term limited.  Engineer Mary Berlingieri finished fourth in a special state senate R primary in 2021.  Addison Township Trustee and businessman Jacob Newby and teacher Josh Schriver are both running on libertarian-leaning platforms.  Andrew Arendoski and Charles Shelton are also running.  Emily Busch will be the D nominee.

67. [W Lapeer, NE Genesee] Safe R
P16: 58 G18: 50.2 AG18: 54 P20: 60
This district includes about half of the districts of Gary Howell (R), who is term limited, and David Martin (R), who lives in a neighboring district.  In one of the few good draws for Rs, this district absorbs some D-leaning areas near Flint while remaining safe R.  It also includes one township from Tuscola County, which happens to be where state rep (18-P) Phil Green (R) lives.  Green, the son of senator (10-18) Mike Green, will run in this district, which is almost entirely new to him.
Incredibly, he is one of eight seeking the R nomination.  Former radio host Sherri Cross previously lost R primaries for state house in 2018 and 2020.  Retired truck driver Kurt Hausauer ran for state house in 2020 as a D. Chad Moore is running on a Stop the Steal platform.  Engineer and firefighter Chris Tuski lost the R primary for a 2015 special election.  Teacher and legislative aide Linda Glisman, Eric Gunnels, and Army veteran and farmer Gabriel Lossing are also seeking the R nomination.  Brian LaJoie will be the D nominee.

68. [Burton, Davison] Lean R
P16: 52.5 G18: 45.5 AG18: 49.9 P20: 52.3
This district contains the residences of Tim Sneller (D), who is term limited, and David Martin (R).  Martin, a county commissioner from Davison who upset an incumbent D in 2020 in a NW Genesee district, will run here.  This district is slightly to the right of Martin's old district, and the area has moved significantly right under Trump.  Also seeking the R nomination are teacher Vern Miller and businesswoman Kristen Swanson, who are both running on a MAGA/Stop the Steal platform.  Activist Amie Carter and journalist Cheri Hardmon are both seeking the D nomination.  There is also married couple Raymond Freiberger (D) and Lynne Freiberger (R), who are both running for the same district under opposite parties for reasons known only to them.

69. [W Genesee] Safe D
P16: 41 G18: 36 AG18: 40 P20: 42
State rep (18-22) John D. Cherry is running for state senate.  The D candidates are Flushing Township Trustee and teacher Jenifer Almassy, former Flint school board member and Flint Township Trustee Kenyetta Dotson, and legislative staffer Jasper Martus.  Jesse Couch will be the R nominee.
70. [Flint] Safe D
P16: 17 G18: 14 AG18: 16 P20: 19
Due to population loss in Flint, this district expanded from being contained within Flint to containing Flint and some suburban areas.  It has a black majority.  Cynthia Neeley (D) won a 2020 special election to replace her husband Sheldon Neeley after he was elected mayor of Flint.  Thomas Harris Jr., Rich Jones, and DeWaun Robinson are also seeking the D nomination.  Trevor Berryhill and Tim Butler are seeking the R nomination.

71. [Shiawassee] Safe R
P16: 57 G18: 50.4 AG18: 56 P20: 60
Ben Frederick (R) is term limited.  Army veteran Kevin Rathbun has the Trump endorsement, and has decent fundraising.  Shiawassee County Sheriff Brian BeGole, farmer Bob Carlin, and Ali Williston are also seeking the R nomination.  Mark Zacharda will be the D nominee.

72. [Fenton, Grand Blanc] Safe R
P16: 55 G18: 49.6 AG18: 53 P20: 55
This district added some competitive areas near Flint.  It shifted slightly left, but is still safe.  Former police officer Mike Mueller (R) was first elected in 2018.  Brandy Bush and recent college graduate Dylan Pescarolo are also seeking the R nomination.  Jacob William Crevier and Stacy Taylor are seeking the D nomination.

73. [rural Ingham] Lean D
P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 43 P20: 44
This rural Ingham district loses Delhi Township and adds part of East Lansing.  It is usually close, but never close enough for Rs to win.  Julie Brixie (D) was elected in 2018 to a district based in East Lansing and Meridian Township.  Norm Shinkle (R) was state senator (1982-90) from Monroe County.  After relocating to the Lansing area, he served in many leadership positions in the local and state GOP, and is currently on the state board of canvassers.  He surprisingly filed to run for this seat at the last minute, which is enough to move it out of the Safe D category.

74. [S Lansing, Delhi Twp] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 31 P20: 31
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing.  Kara Hope (D) was elected to a largely rural and suburban district in 2018 but lives here.  Albert Kelley Jr. and politcal staffer Carlee Knott are also seeking the D nomination.  Jennifer Sokol will be the R nominee.
75. [Meridian Twp, SE Clinton] Safe D
P16: 39 G18: 35 AG18: 40 P20: 38
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits East Lansing and absorbs rural R areas.  Former Ingham County Commissioner Penelope Tsernoglou lost to Julie Brixie in the 2018 D primary for state house.  Ingham County Commissioner Emily Stivers was recruited by Brixie.  Attorney Don Keskey is also seeking the D nomination.  Chris Stewart will be the R nominee.

76. [Eaton] Tossup
P16: 47.9 G18: 42.9 AG18: 46.9 P20: 47.9
This district flipped several times over the past decade, and usually has close races.  Angela Witwer (D) was first elected with 50.8% in 2018 and was reelected with 51.2% in 2020.  Eaton County Commissioner Jeremy Whittum will be the R nominee.

77. [N Lansing, SW Clinton] Safe D
P16: 37 G18: 33 AG18: 38 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing and absorbs rural R areas of Clinton County.  Sarah Anthony (D) lives here but is running for state senate, and Graham Filler (R) lived here, but moved north to a safe district.  Recent MSU graduate Logan Byrne, leftist activist Emily Dievendorf, and former pro basketball player Jon Horford are seeking the D nomination.  John Magoola will be the R nominee.

78. [Ionia, NE Barry] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 56 AG18: 61 P20: 63
This is essentially the Ionia/Barry County seat of term-limited rep Julie Calley, but it includes small parts of Eaton and Kent Counties.  Former Eaton County commissioner Christine Barnes and businesswoman Gina Johnsen faced off in the 2020 R primary for an Eaton County seat (Johnsen won the primary but lost the general). Now both are running here.  Barry County Commissioner Ben Geiger is the third R candidate.  Trump endorsee Jon Rocha was disqualified from the ballot due to campaign finance problems.  Leah Groves will be the D nominee.

79. [S Kent] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 63
This district has most of the southern tier of Kent, plus three townships from Barry and one from Allegan.  Angela Rigas has the Trump endorsement, but has mediocre fundraising.  She unsuccessfully challenged rep Lisa Lyons in the 2014 R primary, and was on the capital grounds on January 6.  Ryan Gallogly is a teacher who finished third in a state house primary in 2016.  Jeremiah Keeler is the son-in-law of former rep Tom Hooker.  The D nominee will be Kimberly Kennedy-Barrington.

80. [Kentwood, East Grand Rapids] Lean D
P16: 42.7 G18: 43 AG18: 46.1 P20: 39.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Kent County Commissioner Phil Skaggs is the legislative director for Rep. Dave LaGrand and seems to have most establishment support.  Lily Cheng-Schulting, a pro-Bernie Sanders activist who lost a race for this seat in 2020, is running again.  Attorney Jeffrey Johnson will be the R nominee.

81. [NE Grand Rapids, Ada Twp] Lean D
P16: 45.5 G18: 43.3 AG18: 46.6 P20: 41.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Rachel Hood (D), who was first elected to a peripheral Grand Rapids district, now lives here.  Rep. Lynn Afendoulis (18-20), who lost a race for Congress in 2020, will be the R nominee.

82. [SE Grand Rapids] Safe D
P16: 24 G18: 25 AG18: 27 P20: 23
Rep. Dave LaGrand (D) is term limited and running for state senate.  Small business owner Salim Mohammed Al-Shatel, Grand Rapids school board member Kristian Grant, and Kent County commissioner Robert Womack are seeking the D nomination.  William Alexander and Ryan Malinoski are seeking the R nomination.
83. [Wyoming, SW Grand Rapids] Lean D
P16: 46.2 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.9 P20: 44
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost heavily R Byron Township and added part of Grand Rapids.  Rep Tommy Brann (R) is term limited and running for state senate.  Former Kent County Commissioner Keith Courtade, who lost a race for state senate in 2021, is running.  Former teacher and Grand Rapids school board member Jose Flores and Wyoming City Councilmember John Fitzgerald are also running.  Businesswoman Lisa DeKryger will be the R nominee.

84. [W Grand Rapids, Walker, Grandville] Tossup
P16: 47.5 G18: 43.8 AG18: 47.1 P20: 43.7
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Walker City Commissioner Carol Glanville (D) was elected 52-40 in a normally safe R district in a May 2022 special election after the election of Mark Huizenga to the state senate.  The R nominee in that election was Robert Regan, who had made many controversial comments on rape, feminism, and Putin's war that came to light after the primary.  Regan, who previously lost house races in 2014, 2018, and 2020, is running again this year.  Grandville City Council member Justin Noordhoek is a teacher who also ran in the special primary.  Loan officer Mike Milanowski ran as a write-in in the special, receiving about 8% of the vote.  John Wetzel is also running.  Hopefully Regan won't benefit from another split field, but if he does, this district goes to safe D.

85. [Jenison, Zeeland] Safe R
P16: 71 G18: 69 AG18: 72 P20: 67
Bradley Slagh was first elected in 2018.  Todd Avery will be the D nominee.

86. [Holland] Safe R
P16: 51.7 G18: 51.4 AG18: 54.4 P20: 49.3
This Holland-area district has trended left, but is more R downballot.  Former Holland Mayor Nancy De Boer has substantial establishment support.  Business consultant Seth Getz is also seeking the R nomination.   Larry Jackson will be the D nominee.

87. [Muskegon city] Safe D
P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 37 P20: 39
This district is open, as Terry Sabo is term limited and running for state senate.  The D candidates are attorney Brennen Gorman, Muskegon Heights City councilman Eddie Jenkins III, Will Snyder, district director for Terry Sabo, and former Muskegon city commissioner Debra Warren.  The R nominee will be Michael Haueisen.

88. [Grand Haven, Norton Shores] Safe R
P16: 54.5 G18: 51.7 AG18: 55.3 P20: 53.7
Greg VanWoerkom, son of state senator (02-10) Jerry VanWoerkom, was elected to the rural Muskegon district in 2018.  That district was chopped into three pieces, and his home is in this district that contains much of the district of term-limited rep Jim Lilly.  Former missionary Mick Bricker got the Trump endorsement when he was intending to run for Lilly's open seat, but has mediocre fundraising.  Bricker's son is married to the daughter of rep Matt Maddock, who likely helped get Trump's endorsement here.  Ottawa County isn't Trump country, so VanWoerkom is favored here.  Christine Baker and Jeffrey Noel are seeking the D nomination.

89. [E Ottawa, SE Muskegon] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 61 AG18: 64 P20: 66
This district adds a chunk of Muskegon County.  Luke Meerman (R) was first elected in 2018.  The D nominee is Sharon McConnon.

90. [NC Kent] Safe R
P16: 60 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 59
Bryan Posthumus (R) was first elected in 2020.  He is the son of LG (1998-2002) Dick Posthumus and brother of Kent County Clerk Lisa Lyons.  Kathy Clark is also seeking the R nomination.  Meagan Hintz will be the D nominee.

91. [Montcalm] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 67
Pat Outman, the son of senator (18-P) Rick Outman, was first elected in 2020.  Tammy DeVries and Frank LaFata are seeking the D nomination.

92. [Isabella, N Gratiot] Lean R
P16: 50.8 G18: 46.4 AG18: 50.2 P20: 53
This district is drawn in the way most beneficial to Ds.  While it keeps Isabella County whole, it includes northern Gratiot County, which is the most pro-D area in any of the five neighboring counties.  Roger Hauck (R) is term limited and running for state senate.  Pastor Gene Haymaker is running on a Stop the Steal platform.  Thomas Anderman, farmer Jerry Neyer, construction project manager Todd Schorle, and family therapist Erin Zimmer are also seeking the R nomination.  CMU professor Anthony Feig will be the D nominee.  He previously lost the D primary for MI-4 in 2020.
93. [W Saginaw, S Gratiot, N Clinton] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Graham Filler (R) was first elected in 2018.  He moved into this new district after his house was put into a D-heavy district as part of the gerrymander of the Lansing area.  Veteran Alan Hoover, who finished fourth in the 2020 R primary for MI-8, is also running.  Jeffrey Lockwood will be the D nominee.

94. [Saginaw city] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 32 P20: 32
Saginaw County commissioner Amos O'Neal (D) was elected in 2020.  James Shepler will be the R nominee.

95. [Midland] Safe R
P16: 57 G18: 55 AG18: 57 P20: 57
State rep Annette Glenn (18-22) is running for state senate.  Former DIA officer Bill G. Schuette is the son of former AG (10-18) Bill Schuette.  He has most establishment support.  Midland County Clerk Ann Manary was first elected as a D after someone else was appointed clerk, but soon switched parties.  Charles McGinnis Jr. is also seeking the R nomination.  Matthew Dawson and Larry Grell are seeking the D nomination.

96. [Bay County] Lean R
P16: 52.3 G18: 45.9 AG18: 48.8 P20: 53.7
Bay County was long a D stronghold, but it has been moving right.  Bangor Township School Board member Timothy Beson (R) defeated a D incumbent in an upset in 2020.  Bay County Commissioner Kim Coonan will be the D nominee.

97. [E Saginaw, W Tuscola] Safe R
P16: 63 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 64
This strange district neighbors four urban areas, and has an arm to take in rural areas between the tri-cities (Saginaw, Midland, and Bay City).  Rodney Wakeman (R) was first elected to a suburban Saginaw district in 2018.  Former Tuscola County Commissioner Matthew Bierlein is the district director for Senator Kevin Daley.  He lost a close race for the 2018 R nomination for a state house seat in the Thumb to Phil Green.  Dean Riley is also seeking the R nomination.  Paul Whitney will be the D nominee.

98. [the Thumb] Safe R
P16: 69 G18: 63 AG18: 66 P20: 71
This district is mostly represented by incumbents Phil Green and Andrew Beeler, but they both live in (and are seeking reelection in) neighboring districts.  Former Sanilac County drain commissioner and farmer Gregory Alexander finished a close second to Beeler for the R nomination for a state house seat in 2020.  State rep Kurt Damrow (10-12) was defeated for renomination due to multiple ethical controversies, and lost another bid in 2014.  Former Sanilac County commissioner and CPA Joe O'Mara finished fourth the R nomination for a state house seat in 2020.  Westley Tahash is also seeking the R nomination.  Robert Mroczek will be the D nominee.

99. [Iosco, Arenac, Ogemaw, Gladwin] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 58 AG18: 59 P20: 67
This district has the majority of the current district of Speaker Jason Wentworth, who is term limited.  Au Gres Mayor and hunting store owner Mike Hoadley has the Trump endorsement, but has mediocre fundraising.  Earl Lackie previously lost the R primary for MI-5 in 2020, and was the Constitution Party candidate for LG in 2018.  Alan Hover and school superintendent Shawn Petri are also running.  Kenneth Kish will be the D nominee.

100. [Mecosta, Osceola, Clare] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 67
This district combines parts of the districts of Michelle Hoitenga and Jason Wentworth, who are both term limited.  Grant Township Board member Tom Kunse is unopposed for the R nomination.  Reed City councilman Nate Bailey will be the D nominee.

101. [Newaygo, Lake] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 60 AG18: 63 P20: 67
Scott VanSingel (R) is term limited.  Former MI GOP Administrative Vice Chair Diane Schindlbeck, district representative for senator Jon Bumstead, is running on a MAGA platform.  Newaygo County Road Commission manager Kelly Smith has the support of rep VanSingel and other local officials.  Former director of the Newaygo County Commission on Aging Joseph Fox and Chad Pierce are also running.  Amanda Siggins will be the D nominee.

102. [Muskegon to Manistee lakeshore] Safe R
P16: 56 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 58
This district was assembled from pieces of three existing districts.  Senator (18-22) Curt VanderWall was previously a state rep (16-18) representing one of them.  Redistricting put him in a district largely represented by senator Jon Bumstead.  VanderWall decided to run for state house rather than challenge Bumstead or move to a different district.
Oceana County Commissioner and Oceana GOP chairman Andrew Sebolt is running on an antiestablishment conservative platform.  He previously challenged Rep. Scott VanSingel in the 2020 R primary.  Ryan E. Roberts is also seeking the R nomination. Assistant prosecutor Brian Hosticka will be the D nominee.  He previously lost to Rep. Greg VanWoerkom in a rural Muskegon district in 2020.

103. [Leelanau, Traverse City] Tossup
P16: 49.9 G18: 46.6 AG18: 49.5 P20: 46.9
This district is gerrymandered to combine Leelanau County with the Traverse City area in a way that is the best for Ds.  Grand Traverse County is split, even though it has the right population for a single district.  District 103 contained the residences of two R incumbents, Jack O'Malley and John Roth.  
O'Malley was first elected to a lakeshore district in 2018.  Roth moved to a neighboring district to avoid a primary.
Activist Heather Cerone, who lost the 2020 R primary to Roth, is also seeking the R nomination.  Grand Traverse County Commissioner Betsy Coffia, who previously lost races for state house in 2012, 2014, and 2016, has most D establishment support.  Activist Michael Brodsky is also seeking the D nomination.
104. [S Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Antrim] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 62
The oddly shaped district contains parts of six counties but all of none.  John Roth (R) was first elected in 2020.  He moved to this district to avoid a primary with fellow incumbent Jack O'Malley.  Businesswoman Katie Kniss is also seeking the R nomination.  Cathy Albro will be the D nominee.  She lost MI-3 against Justin Amash in 2018.

105. [Roscommon, Crawford, Otsego, Missaukee] Safe R
P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 65 P20: 68
This district has parts of the current districts of Ken Borton and Daire Rendon.  Rendon, who has embraced Stop the Steal and flirted with QAnon, is term limited.  Otsego County Commissioner Ken Borton was first elected in 2020 and is running here. There are three other R candidates.  Private investigator Mark McFarlin has run for office 8 times before, including being the US Taxpayers (Constitution) party nominee for governor in 2014. Businesswoman Kim Morley and Roscommon Township Supervisor Diane Randall were previously running for Rendon's district, and are now running here.  Adam Wojdan will be the D nominee.

106. [NE Lower Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 66
Sue Allor (R) is term limited.  Montmorency County Commissioner Geyer Balog and Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner Cam Cavitt are both seeking the R nomination.  Navy veteran Larry Hull is running on a Stop the Steal platform.  Marie Fielder will be the D nominee.  

107. [Mackinac Bridge area] Safe R
P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 57
Documentary producer John Damoose, who easily won the R nomination in 2020, is running for state senate.  There are five R candidates.  Political staffer Bob Carr (not the D congressman) previously ran for US Senate as a write-in candidate.  David Laughbaum finished fifth in the 2020 R primary.
The other candidates are university student Parker Fairbairn, property manager Neil Friske, and former Emmet County commissioner and zoning administrator Jonathan Scheel.  Jodi Decker will be the D nominee.

108. [Menominee to Chippewa] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 64
Beau LaFave is term limited, and unsuccessfully sought the R endorsement for secretary of state.  The R candidates include attorney Casey Hoffman, Menominee County Commissioner and paramedic David Prestin, and car salesman Mark Simon.  Kurt Perron, who was previously a D candidate for state rep in 2018 and 2020, is running as an R.  Chris Lopez will be the D nominee.

109. [Marquette] Lean D
P16: 48.6 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.1 P20: 48
Trump won this district, but it is more D downballot.  Sara Cambensy (D) is term limited.  Forsyth Township Supervisor Joe Boogren has most D establishment support.  Marquette City Commissioner Jenn Hill is also seeking the D nomination. Former farmer and police officer Melody Wagner is seeking the R nomination, after losing races for this district in 2016, 2018, and 2020, the latter two to Cambensy.  Businessman Ron Gray is also running.

110. [W Upper Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 54 AG18: 55 P20: 59
Gregory Markkanen (R) won this historically D district in an upset in in 2018.  Casey VerBerkmoes will be the D nominee.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe D: 36 (1-19, 23-26, 32, 33, 41, 47, 53, 69, 70, 74-75, 77, 82, 87, 94)
Lean D: 12 (20, 21, 31, 38, 40, 56, 61, 73, 80, 81, 83, 109)
Tossup: 11 (22, 27, 28, 29, 44, 46, 48, 58, 76, 84, 103)
Lean R: 7 (54, 55, 57, 62, 68, 92, 96)
Safe R: 44 (30, 34-37, 39, 42, 43, 45, 49-52, 59, 60, 63-67, 71, 72, 78, 79, 85, 86, 88-91, 93, 95, 97-102, 104-108, 110)