Thursday, December 01, 2022

December 2022 Judiciary News

November is over.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Vacancies:  Harsh Voruganti of the Vetting Room surveys the existing judicial vacancies and prospects to fill them, now that Ds have held the Senate.

Circuit courts:  President Biden has appointed 25 Biden nominees to circuit courts so far.  However, most replace previous D appointees, with only four replacing R appointees.  Those four were all moderate to liberal.

1st Circuit:  Carrie Severino exposes the radical views of pro-abortion activist Julie Rikelman, nominated to the 1st Circuit.


The Federal Judiciary:

Affirmative action:  The cases challenging affirmative action policies at University of North Carolina and Harvard were argued on October 31.  Justice Jackson and Justice Sotomayor made poor arguments and asked foolish questions.  Harvard's arguments were unpersuasive.

Supreme Court:  The Hill asks who is the leader of the conservatives on the Supreme Court, but doesn't explain why they would need a leader.

Disclosure:  Carrie Severino exposes the bias in a report from Fix the Court that implies that conservative justices are inappropriately influenced by their spouses' work.

Yale:  Last month, 5th Circuit judge James Ho announced that he will no longer hire clerks from Yale due to harassment of conservative speakers and students.  An additional 12 judges have anonymously joined the boycott, along with Judge Elizabeth Branch (11th Circuit).  However, Judge Jerry Smith (5th Circuit) opposes the boycott.

DC Circuit:  Judge Laurence Silberman died on October 2 at age 86.  He served in the Nixon/Ford administration, and was appointed to the court by Reagan in 1985.  He went senior in 2000, and served in that capacity until his death.  Justice Amy Coney Barrett was one of his many clerks who later became judges.

ND-IL:  Judge Robert Dow has been appointed "Counselor to the Chief Justice" John Roberts, and will serve as his chief of staff.  Dow was appointed by W in 2007.  This creates an open seat on ND-IL, though Dow can return to the bench later.

Law professors:  Mark Joseph Stern claims that liberal law professors are having a hard time adapting “intellectually, pedagogically, and emotionally” to a constitutionalist Supreme Court.  Ed Whelan shows the absurdity of this, as leftist law professors were eager to overturn precedents when they thought the left would control the court.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 119 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.
ND-IL: Robert Dow (W) 12/5 (counselor to John Roberts)
ND-IL: Charles Norgle (Reagan) 10/4 (senior)
WD-TX: Frank Montalvo (W) 12/1 (senior)
MD-FL: Brian Davis (Obama) 12/30/23 (senior)
D-NJ: Kevin McNulty (Obama) 10/31/23 (senior)
ED-MO: John Andrew Ross (Obama) 6/9/23 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Florida:  Governor Ron DeSantis signed a bill to create a 6th District Court of Appeal in Florida, covering the Tampa Bay area.  The boundaries of the 1st, 2nd, and 5th districts are modified to accommodate this, and some judges have been reassigned to new circuits.  The bill creates three new judgeships in the 6th district and four new judgeships in the 5th district for DeSantis to fill.

Michigan:  Governor Whitmer appointed state rep (18-22) Kyra Harris Bolden (D) to the Michigan Supreme Court.  Bolden is a black woman who is only 34 and has little to distinguish her career.  She succeeds Chief Justice Bridget McCormack (D), who retired on November 22.  Bolden will face a special election in 2024.  The court currently has 4 D and 3 R nominees.

Nevada:  Governor Steve Sisolak appointed attorney Patricia Lee to the Nevada Supreme Court.  She is part black and part Asian.  She replaces Justice Abbi Silver, who retired.

New York:  Seven candidates to fill the position of Chief Judge on the New York Court of Appeals have been announced.  The position was vacated by Janet DiFiore, one of a group of four 'conservative' (non-leftist) judges (along with Cannatarro, Garcia, and Singas) on the court.  Judge Anthony Cannataro, currently the acting chief judge, is one of the candidates.  If he is selected by Governor Kathy Hochul, she will have to make another appointment to fill his seat.

Oregon:  Chief Justice Martha Walters and Justice Thomas Balmer will both retire on December 31.  Walters was appointed in 2006 by Ted Kulongoski, and Balmer was appointed in 2001 by John Kitzhaber.  Governor Kate Brown will appoint both replacements before she leaves office in January.  The retirements seemed to be timed to avoid the possibility that they could be replaced by a Republican (the election was won by another D).

Tennessee:  Justice Sharon Lee is retiring from Tennessee Supreme court in August 2023. She is the last D on the court, and was appointed in 2009 by Phil Bredesen.  Governor Bill Lee (R) will get his second appointment to the court.  The replacement must be from East Tennessee.


Sunday, November 20, 2022

The Michigan GOP is a Disaster

The 2022 election was a calamity for Michigan Republicans.  This was partly due to the national environment, but there were major blunders by both the GOP establishment and grassroots.

The problems began with the governor's race.  Surprisingly, no top Republican ran for governor.  The GOP actually has a decent bench, but most seem unwilling to run for any race that is less than a sure thing.  There are former statewide office holders (Miller, Cox, Land, Schuette, Johnson), congressmen (Hoekstra, Camp, Rogers, Trott, Huizenga, Moolenaar, McClain), and state senators, almost all of whom would have been better than anyone who ran this year.

The nominal front-runner was former Detroit police chief James Craig, but he seemed unwilling to actually campaign and was unable to secure his own campaign launch against protesters.  Without a strong front-runner, a bunch of lightweights, nuts, and random rich dudes entered the race, resulting in an absurd 10-candidate field.

Anyone running for governor needs a large number of signatures, and voters are not allowed to sign for more than one candidate.  It was obviously impossible for all the candidates to get legitimate signatures, and many turned to crooked signature collection firms, who took their money in exchange for fake signatures.  Five of the ten candidates were disqualified, including Craig and self-proclaimed "quality guru" Perry Johnson.  Shady political consultant John Yob had the non-distinction of working for both Craig and Johnson while failing to get either of them on the ballot.

Most of the remaining five candidates spent much of the primary seeking Donald Trump's endorsement.  This led to them embracing the Stop the Steal election conspiracies, which were poison in the general election.  The best of the bunch was probably Tudor Dixon, who eventually got support from both Trump and the DeVos family, and won the primary.  It isn't clear why rich car dealer Kevin Rinke never caught on with major party insiders.  The fact that January 6 rioter Ryan Kelley, who was arrested mid-campaign, was taken seriously as a candidate says a lot about how out of touch with reality some primary voters were.

After winning the primary in August, Dixon was broke.  Somehow, she was never able to turn grassroots anger at Governor Whitmer into substantial fundraising.  Major funders on the right didn't see her as viable, and mostly avoided donating to her.  Meanwhile, Whitmer had been raising tens of millions of dollars.  She used it to hammer Dixon on abortion and Stop the Steal.  Dixon was mostly unable to respond, and her campaign had no clear message.  A few late polls showed the race close, but this turned out to be a mirage, and Dixon lost by over 10%.

Meanwhile, the AG and SOS nominees were selected by GOP precinct delegates, unofficially at an endorsement convention in April and officially at a convention in August.  Traditionally, GOP delegates are a good mix of establishment Republicans and grassroots activists who carefully vetted candidates and had a history of picking strong nominees.  Over the past few years, however, these positions have increasingly been taken by Trump-loving MAGA types who knew little about what it takes to win a general election.

Most of these activists embraced 2020 election conspiracies that inspired the Stop the Steal movement.  These lies have been repeatedly been debunked, both by me and by serious Republican elected officials.  However, there was no reasoning with the MAGA crowd, who believed Trump and refused to listen to evidence to the contrary.

Trump endorsed the most fringe candidates for both AG and SOS.  For AG, he went with Matt DePerno, a trail lawyer of no distinction.  DePerno has been involved in many ethical controversies, and is under criminal investigation related to the Stop the Steal investigation of voting machines.  He had no history of involvement with the conservative movement prior to the Stop the Steal movement.  He raised a bunch of money from gullible MAGA voters, and of course didn't Stop the Steal.

For SOS, Trump endorsed Kristina Karamo, a low-level GOP activist who teaches a "welcome to college" class at a community college.  She had absolutely no qualifications for running elections.  It appears that Karamo's website was never updated after the endorsement convention.  It features endorsements from Trump, General Flynn, and a bunch of R county chairs and precinct delegates.  Karamo appeared to limit her campaign to Republicans, ignoring swing voters.  She refused to meet with the (mildly conservative) Detroit News, which later endorsed her opponent.  She also filed a lawsuit the week before the election to halt the count of Detroit absentee ballots, which was laughed out of court.  Karamo lost by almost 14%.

The trouble continued in the 3rd congressional district, where Trump endorsed John Gibbs over Peter Meijer, who had voted for impeachment.  Gibbs had no ties to the district, and had made a bunch of impolitic statements that played poorly in a district that was gerrymandered to favor democrats.  The other R candidates for congress in competitive seats performed respectably.  John James won a narrow victory, Tom Barrett did as well as could be expected, and Paul Junge was a respectable candidate in a district where no top R candidates ran.

The legislative caucuses seemed to do reasonably well with the hand they were dealt.  The redistricting commission gerrymandered the maps to help the democrats, but even with the disaster at the top of the ticket, dems only won one seat more than 50% in both chambers.  When there is a close loss, it is easy to speculate that another candidate would have done better.  However, none of the candidates in competitive seats were obvious disasters.

Speaking of the  redistricting commission, the GOP failed to stop it from passing in 2018, and seemed to not even try.  Its effort to influence the commission was unfocused, mostly just telling activists to give whatever opinion they wanted.  Meanwhile, the dems gave their activists clear talking points that were repeated again and again.  Fixing the commission should be a top goal of the GOP in the future.

That brings us to the Michigan GOP itself.  The chair is currently Ron Weiser, a businessman who has led the party in the 2010, 2018, and 2022 cycles.  Weiser has had some success at fundraising (particularly when he writes the checks himself) but by now it seems clear that he isn't a good leader.  Back in 2010, the August convention overseen by Weiser was a fiasco, as the party botching the credentialing process led to an hour-long line half way around the Breslin Center.  The vice-chair of the Michigan GOP is Meshawn Maddock, the wife of MAGA state rep Matt Maddock.  Her main contribution seems to be to occasionally make inflammatory comments.

While the election results in 2010 were excellent, the same can't be said for 2018 or 2022.  It can be difficult to evaluate the performance of a state party, since there are many factors other than its actions that contribute to victory or defeat.  One area where the state party absolutely be involved is vetting candidates.  In a 2022 special election, the GOP nominated Robert Regan, who had expressed many controversial opinions, including that the war in Ukraine wasn't real.  This came out shortly after the primary, presumably due to democrat opposition research.  Regan lost an otherwise safe seat, and made it harder for Republicans to win the redrawn district in November.  While the Michigan GOP should not attempt to pick a winner in every race, it should vet candidates and attempt to expose any crooks or cranks before they lose any more winnable seats.

The Michigan GOP has a choice.  It could continue to embrace conspiracy nonsense and use MAGA messaging that only speaks to the activist base.  Or it can face reality and appeal to winnable voters with a conservative platform that speaks to their concerns.  A test of which direction the party will choose will come at the next Michigan GOP convention in February, which will elect the new party leadership.  Matt DePerno is already running for Michigan GOP chair, and James Craig and Tudor Dixon are considering the race.  Someone better is needed to turn the party around.

Sunday, November 13, 2022

Michigan 2022 Election Results

The candidate names and percentages were copied from a post by Republican Michigander

Governor: Whitmer 54.47%, Dixon 43.94% For comparison, Whitmer won by 9.5% in 2018.  In retrospect, this was never close.  Dixon, tried, but she was a weak candidate. 
SOS: Benson 55.86%, Karamo 41.93% Karamo was a disaster. 
Attorney General: Nessel 53.15%, DePerno 44.55% Nessel was the weakest of the three D incumbents.

Congress.  The congressional delegation will be 6R, 7D.  The current delegation is 7R, 7D.  A gerrymandered map helped Ds win districts 3 and 8.

1. 60-37 for Jack Bergman 
2. 64-34 for John Moolenaar 
3. John Gibbs 41.94% Hillary Scholten 54.84% This seat was gerrymandered to elect a D.  Gibbs was a very weak candidate who won thanks to Trump's endorsement.  Peter Meijer might have kept it close, but it still would have been tough. 
4. Bill Huizenga 54.59% Joseph Alfonso 42.23% 
5. 63-35 for Tim Walberg 
6. 34-66 for Debbie Dingell 
7. Tom Barrett 46.38% Elissa Slotkin 51.67% Barrett ran a good campaign, but it wasn't enough to overcome the drag at the top of the ticket. 
8. Paul Junge 42.83% Dan Kildee 53.09% This is still a D district, though moving right. 
9. 64-33 for Lisa McClain 
10. John James 48.80% Carl Marlinga 48.31% This was unexpectedly tight, perhaps due to infighting in Macomb County. 
11. 39-61 for Haley Stevens 
12. 26-71 for Rashida Tlaib 
13. 24-71 for Shri Thanedar 

State Senate.  The senate will be 18R, 20D.  This is the first D majority since 1983.  The current delegation is 22-16.  A gerrymandered map helped Ds win extra districts in Lansing, Ann Arbor, and the tri-cities areas.

4. Houston James 44.66% Darrin Camilerri 55.34%  Downriver may realign some day, but not yet.
9. Mike Webber 50.35%, Padma Kuppa 49.65% (795 vote margin) Finally, a close win.
11. Mike MacDonald 47.32% Veronica Klinefelt 52.68% Loss in a gerrymandered district.
12. Pam Hornberger 49.87% Kevin Hertel 50.13% (313 vote margin) Surprise loss in a district won by Trump.
13. Jason Rhines 42.83% Rosemary Bayer 57.17%
14. Tim Golding 44.11% Sue Shink 55.89%
28. Daylen Howard 41.95% Sam Singh 55.81%
30. Mark Huizenga 49.19%, David LaGrand 48.87% (405 vote margin)  Close win in Grand Rapids, which is trending D.
32. Jon Bumstead 52.83%, Terry Sabo 47.17%
35. Annette Glenn 46.63% Kristin McDonald Rivet 53.37%  Tough loss in a gerrymandered district.
37. John Damoose 55.33%, Barbara Conley 42.94% 

State House.  The house will be 54R, 56D.  This is the first D majority since 2010.  In 2020, the elected delegation was 58R, 52D.  A gerrymandered map helped Ds win extra districts in Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Grand Rapids.

20. Albert Mansour 43.36% Noah Arbit 56.64% 
21. David Staudt 42.27% Kelly Breen 56.43%
22. Cathryn Neracher 45.75% Matt Kolezar 54.25%
27. Bob Howey 49.22% Jamie Churches 50.78% (640 vote margin)
28. Jamie Thompson 50.99%, Robert Kull 49.01% (745 vote margin)
29. James DeSana 51.48%, Alex Garza 48.52% This was the only defeat of a D incumbent.
31. Dale Biniecki 47.74% Reggie Miller 52.26%
The four Wayne/Monroe districts (27, 28, 29, 31) split 2R, 2D.  The attempted gerrymander didn't completely work here.
38. Kevin Whiteford 49.48% Joey Andrews 50.52% (398 vote margin)  Whiteford overperformed, but the absurd lakeshore gerrymander did its job.
40. Kelly Sackett 41.37% Christine Morse 58.63% Kalamazoo's suburbs continue to move left.
42. Matt Hall 54.99% Justin Mendoza 45.01%  Hall will be the house minority leader.
44. Dave Morgan 47.75% Jim Haadsma 52.25%  A third loss for Morgan, who got 48-49% in the previous two elections.  Perhaps Rs should run a different candidate here?
46. Kathy Schmaltz 54.37% Maurice Imhoff 45.63%  Imhoff was disowned by the Ds, but still was competitive.
48. Jason Woolford 45.80% Jennifer Conlin 53.08% Weak candidate in a swing district.
49. Ann Bollin 55.78%, Christina Kafkakis 44.22%
51. Matt Maddock 57.94%, Sarah May Seward 42.06%
54. Donni Steele 51.17% Shadia Martini 48.83% Rs had the right candidate in a district drawn well for the GOP.
55. Mark Tisdel 51.80% Patricia Bernard 48.20%
56. Mark Gunn 42.07% Sharon MacDonell 57.93%
57. Thomas Kuhn 52.64% Aisha Farooqi 47.36% 
58. Michelle Smith 48.67% Nate Shannon 51.33% Smith should try again here.
61. Mike Aiello 47.98% Denise Mentzer 52.02% This area is moving right.
62. Alicia St Germaine 53.42% Michael Brooks 46.58% 
68. David Martin 54.73% Cheri Hardmon 45.27% Nice margin in a district that would have been close to safe D a decade ago.
69. Jesse Couch 41.04% Jasper Martus 56.31% Surprisingly close in a district that is moving right.
71. Brian BeGole 57.74% Mark Zacharda 42.26%
73. Norm Shinkle 42.67% Julie Brixie 57.33%
76. Jeremy Whittum 44.78% Angela Witwer 55.22%  Whittum barely raised any money.
80. Jeffrey Johnson 43.70% Phil Skaggs 56.30%
81. Lynn Afendoulis 44.33% Rachel Hood 55.67%
83. Lisa DeKryger 44.64% John Fitzgerald 52.76%
84. Mike Malinowski 44.45% Carol Glanville 55.55%
The Grand Rapids area is gerrymandered to have 5 D districts, instead of the 2-3 D districts a fair map would have.  Note that the R percentages in 80, 81, 83, and 84 are all 43-44%--drawn to be just out of reach.
86. Nancy DeBoer 56.19% Larry Jackson 43.81%
88. Greg VanWoerkom 56.17% Christine Baker 41.87%
92. Jerry Neyer 55.49% Anthony Feig 42.45%
96. Timothy Beson 55.32% Kim Coonan 44.68%
103. Jack O’Malley 48.47% Betsy Coffia 49.84%  (765 vote margin)  This was the only loss by an R incumbent.  The seat was gerrymandered to elect a D.
107. Neal Friske 56.59% Jodi Decker 43.41%
109. Melody Wagner 47.02% Jenn Hill 52.98% This district is drifting right, but not quite there yet.  Considering this is Wagner's fourth loss, perhaps a new candidate would help.

Supreme Court:  34% Bernstein (D), 24% Zahra (R), 22% Bolden (D), 13% Hudson  The two incumbents win reelection.  Ds hold a 4-3 majority on the court.
State Board of Education:  Ds took both slots, with a 74K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
University of Michigan:  Ds took both slots, with a 52K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
Michigan State:  Ds took both slots, with a 11K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
Wayne State:  Ds took both slots, with a 64K vote margin between the second and third candidates.

My ratings turned out to be pretty accurate, though slightly too R.  Every race I had at safe for a party was won by that party.  The only lean race I missed was senate 12. For congress, the tossups had margins of -5 and -10.  For senate, the tossups had margins of -5 and -7.  The lean Ds had margins of -10 to -14, and the lean Rs had margins of -0.3 to 6.
Rs lost all tossups except house 28 and 29.  My state house tossups had margins from -11 to 3.  My lean R races had margins from 2 to 13.  My lean D races had margins from -4 to -17.  The closest margins in race I had at safe were 12 (senate 37) and 10 (house 42).  My lean ratings for Congress had margins of 6, 16, 3.6.

Sunday, October 30, 2022

2022 Michigan State House Races

Last updated October 30, 2022.

All 110 seats in the Michigan Senate are up for election in 2022.  Republicans won a 58-52 majority in 2020, unchanged from 2018.  Rs have controlled the house since 2010.  

Michigan has a new state house map, thanks to the Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew lines that split many counties and split Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, and the Lansing area to benefit Ds.  Other districts have strange shapes for no clear reason.

The existing map has ten black-majority districts based in Detroit, plus one in Southfield and one in Flint.  This map has only six black-majority districts based in Detroit/Southfield (4, 5, 6, 9, 16, 18), and one in Flint (70).  There are nine districts between 40% and 50% black (1, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17).  There are 15 districts that are partly but not wholly contained in Detroit, up from 7 in the existing map.  No district is completely in Detroit.

Michigan Redistricting: State House Map Approved

Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and MICRC.

Michigan State House Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan State House Map-MICRC

Several incumbents had to move to avoid unfriendly districts or primaries with other incumbents.  There are 53 open seats; 36 state reps are term-limited.  A bunch of state reps are running for state senate or other offices, and two just retired.  There was be one incumbent-v-incumbent primary.  There will also be many interesting general election races. 

President Trump endorsed eight candidates for Michigan state house.  One (Maddock) is an incumbent, one (Rocha) was disqualified, and one (Bricker) is challenging an incumbent.  His endorsees won in districts 43, 79, 99 and lost in 63, 71, 88.  In addition, several candidates are tying themselves closely to Trump (a MAGA platform) and others are promoting conspiracy theories about the 2020 election (a Stop the Steal platform).  One incumbent running in a substantially different district (97) lost a primary challenge.

Consider the districts in detail.  The election data for each district is the R candidates for President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)  Additional information on the races comes from Gongwer and RepublicanMichigander.

1. [S Detroit] Safe D
P16: 7 G18: 7 AG18: 8 P20: 11
This district has a strong claim to be the most diverse in Michigan, and has successively had black, Hispanic, Jewish, Muslim, Chinese, and black representatives.  Tyrone Carter (D) was elected in 2018.  Incumbent rep. (18-22) Cynthia Johnson (D) filed here, but was disqualified due to campaign finance problems.  Paula Campbell is the R nominee.

2. [Southgate, Allen Park] Safe D
P16: 43 G18: 37 AG18: 38 P20: 43
The downriver area has moved right under Trump, but is more D downballot.  Tullio Liberati (D), younger brother of rep (14-20) Frank Liberati, was elected in 2020.  Michael D'Onofrio won the R nomination.

3. [central Dearborn, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 21 G18: 20 AG18: 20 P20: 21
Rep. (16-21) Abdullah Hammoud (D) was elected mayor of Dearborn in 2021.  Attorney Jeffrey Pepper (D) won a 2022 special election to replace him, but will not seek a full term.  Community organizer Alabas Farhat, who lost the 2022 special election primary to Pepper, won the D nomination.  Ginger Shearer will be the R nominee.

4. [E Dearborn, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 6 G18: 5 AG18: 5 P20: 8
Community organizer Karen Whitsett (D) was first elected in 2018.  She made headlines in 2020 after calling the house D leader racist and praising President Trump after recovering from coronavirus.  She won renomination in 2020 with 45% against a split field.  She has not attracted much attention in her second term, and won renomination with 55%.  Tonya Renay Wells will be the R nominee.

5. [Birmingham, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 20 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 21
This particularly absurd district is one of four that are thin strips from Detroit to Oakland County.  It has a chunk of Detroit, slices through Oak Park to the mostly white suburb of Birmingham (with precincts from Southfield, Royal Oak, and Berkley).  Berkley City Councilmember Natalie Price won the D nomination.  Paul Taros won the R nomination.

6. [Oak Park, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 16 G18: 16 AG18: 16 P20: 16
This is one of four districts that are thin strips from Detroit to Oakland County.  Oak Park City Council Member Regina Weiss (D) was elected in 2020.  Charles Villerot is the R nominee.

7. [Royal Oak, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 16 G18: 16 AG18: 16 P20: 17
This is one of four districts that are thin strips from Detroit to Oakland County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  Helena Scott (D), a legislative staffer, was elected in 2020.  There is no R candidate.

8. [Madison Heights, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 21 G18: 19 AG18: 20 P20: 23
This is one of four districts that are thin strips from Detroit to Oakland County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  Hazel Park City Councilmember Mike McFall won the D nomination.  Robert Noble won the R nomination.

9. [E Detroit] Safe D
P16: 5 G18: 6 AG18: 5 P20: 7
Hamtramck city commissioner Abraham Aiyash (D), a pro-Bernie Sanders progressive, was elected in 2020. Michele Lundgren won the R nominee.

10. [Grosse Pointes, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 32 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
This district reunites the Grosse Pointes (a clear community of interest), but combines them with part of Detroit, making it unlikely that they can elect a candidate of their choice.  Joe Tate (D) was elected in 2018, and is expected to be the next house D leader.  Mark Corcoran is the R nominee.

11. [St. Clair Shores, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 33 G18: 30 AG18: 31 P20: 33
This is one of five districts containing part of Detroit and Macomb County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  Harper Woods Council Member Veronica Paiz won a 9-candidate primary for the D nomination with 18.9%.  Mark Foster won the R nomination.

12. [Eastpointe, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 26 AG18: 27 P20: 31
This is one of five districts containing part of Detroit and Macomb County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  Roseville City Clerk Rich Steenland (D) was elected in 2020.  Kimberly Edwards defeated Steenland for the D nomination in a major upset.  Diane Saber is the R nominee.

13. [E Warren, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 34 G18: 31 AG18: 32 P20: 35
This is one of five districts containing part of Detroit and Macomb County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  Lori Stone (D) was elected in 2018 to a district covering most of Warren.  Ronald Singer is the R nominee.

14. [W Warren, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 27 G18: 24 AG18: 25 P20: 29
This is one of five districts containing part of Detroit and Macomb County, gerrymandered to reduce the number of black-majority districts.  It combines territory from the districts of Shri Thanedar (D), who is leaving to run for congress, and Lori Stone, who is running in an adjacent district.  Activist Donavan McKinney won the D nomination.  Wendy Jo Watters is the R nominee.

15. [Dearborn Heights, W Dearborn] Safe D
P16: 39 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
This district has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Dearborn City Councilmember Erin Byrnes, won the D nomination.  Steven Mackie is the R nominee.

16. [SE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 23 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 23
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Stephanie Young (D) was elected to a district entirely within Detroit in 2020.  Keith Jones won the R nomination.

17. [NE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 30 P20: 31
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Laurie Pohutsky (D) is a progressive who was first elected to a swing district based in Livonia in 2018.  Penny Crider, who lost a state house primary in 2020, is the R nominee.  Her husband is the R nominee for state senate district 6.

18. [Southfield, Farmington] Safe D
P16: 19 G18: 18 AG18: 19 P20: 20
Kyra Bolden (D), who was elected in 2018, is running for Michigan Supreme Court.  Southfield City Councilman Jason Hoskins won the D nomination.  Wendy Webster Jackson is the R nominee.

19. [N Farmington Hills, S Bloomfield Twp] Safe D
P16: 33 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
Farmington Hills City Council member Samantha Steckloff (D) was elected in 2020.  This district changed shape significantly, but the partisan numbers didn't change much.  Anthony Paesano is the R nominee.

20. [W Bloomfield Twp.] Lean D
P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 41 P20: 43
Ryan Berman (R), first elected in 2018, did not seek reelection.  He unsuccessfully sought the R endorsement for AG.  This district added some of the current district of retiring rep. Mari Manoogian (D), moving significantly left.  Political activist Noah Arbit won the D nomination.  Realtor Albert Mansour won the R nomination.

21. [Novi] Lean D
P16: 45.3 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.9 P20: 42.4
Novi city councilmember Kelly Breen (D) flipped this historically conservative seat D in 2020.  The new district moved several points left.  Novi Mayor Pro Tem David Staudt won the R nomination.

22. [W Livonia, Plymouth, Northville] Tossup
P16: 50 G18: 46.8 AG18: 49.7 P20: 47.2
Matt Koleszar (D) was first elected in 2018, flipping a historically R seat that moved left under Trump.  This district moved several points right compared to Koleszar's old district.  Businesswoman Cathryn Neracher is the R nominee.  Livonia Councilman Rob Donovic filed here, but was disqualified due to residency issues. 

23. [E Ann Arbor, South Lyon] Safe D
P16: 35 G18: 35 AG18: 37 P20: 34
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, Ann Arbor was split into four pieces.  This particularly absurd district has a slice of Ann Arbor, R-leaning Salem Township, South Lyon from Oakland County, and parts of Plymouth and Northville Townships in Wayne County.  Washtenaw County Commissioner Jason Morgan is the D nominee.  Richard Sharland is the R nominee.

24. [Canton Twp] Safe D
P16: 41 G18: 37 AG18: 40 P20: 38
Ranjeev Puri (D) was elected in 2020.  John Anthony is the R nominee.

25. [Westland, Wayne] Safe D
P16: 40 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 40
Kevin Coleman (D) was first elected in 2018.  Scott Barlow is the R nominee.

26. [Garden City, Inkster, N Romulus] Safe D
P16: 32 G18: 27 AG18: 28 P20: 34
Scandal-plagued rep. Jewell Jones (D) is term limited.  Teacher Dylan Wegela won the D nomination.  James Townsend will be the R nominee.

27. [Trenton, Grosse Ile] Tossup
P16: 51.5 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.7 P20: 51.3
The downriver area has many working class voters who have moved right under Trump.  Teacher Jaime Churches is the D nominee.  Trenton City Councilmember Bob Howey lost a race for state house by less than 1% in 2016.  Howey won the R nomination this year.

28. [NE Monroe, Brownstown Twp] Tossup
P16: 51.5 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.6 P20: 51.9
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Veterans Affairs Director Robert Kull is the D nominee.  Nurse Jamie Thompson won the R nomination.

29. [Taylor, Huron] Tossup
P16: 51.6 G18: 44.3 AG18: 46.3 P20: 53
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Alex Garza (D) was first elected in 2018.  He lost an election for mayor of Taylor in 2021.  Sales manager James DeSana won the R nomination.

30. [S Monroe] Safe R
P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 60
Bedford Township trustee TC Clements, who was elected in 2020, lost a bid for state senate.  Army veteran William Bruck won the R nomination.  Suzanne Jennens is the D nominee.

31. [N Monroe, Belleville] Lean D
P16: 47.4 G18: 42.1 AG18: 44.1 P20: 48.8
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It combines heavily D parts of Wayne with rural R areas of Monroe.  Van Buren Township Trustee Reggie Miller won the D nomination.  Truck driver Dale Biniecki won the R nomination.

32. [Ypsilanti] Safe D
P16: 22 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 22
Ronnie Peterson (D) is term limited.  Ypsilanti Township Trustee Jimmie Wilson Jr. won the D nomination.  Martin Church is the R nominee.

33. [S Ann Arbor, Pittsfield Twp] Safe D
P16: 25 G18: 24 AG18: 26 P20: 23
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships.  County Commissioner Felicia Brabec (D) was elected in 2020.  The R nominee is Robert Borer III.

34. [Lenawee] Safe R
P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 54 P20: 58
Bronna Khale (R) is term limited.  State senator (14-22) Dale Zorn was previously a state rep (10-14).  He is termed out of the state senate, but can still serve one more term in the state house.  He is running in Lenawee County rather than in Monroe County, which he previously represented.  He defeated retired fire chief Ryan Rank by only 17 votes for the R nomination.  John Dahlgren is the D nominee.

35. [Hillsdale, Branch] Safe R
P16: 69 G18: 64 AG18: 66 P20: 71
This district was almost unchanged, adding only the city of Hudson.  Attorney Andrew Fink (R) was elected in 2020.  He launched a leadership bid, but later dropped it.  Fink defeated a MAGA challenger, farmer Steve Meckley, 57-43.  The D nominee is Andrew Watkins.

36. [St. Joseph, Cass] Safe R
P16: 63 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 65
Steve Carra (R) was first elected in 2020.  After congressman Fred Upton voted for impeachment, Carra announced a run against him, and was endorsed by President Trump.  Redistricting took Carra out of the new district, and added the base of Congressman Bill Huizenga, who ran for the seat.  President Trump then offered a "complete and total" endorsement of Huizenga.  While not explicitly un-endorsing Carra, this served to push him out of the race, and he chose to run for reelection.  Upton decided not to seek reelection.
While Carra was running for Congress, several other candidates launched campaigns for this seat.  Carra won renomination with 40%.  The other candidates, former Kalamazoo county commissioner and Kalamazoo GOP chairman Scott McGraw, Navy veteran Jack Coleman, and pastor Jerry Solis each got about 20%.

37. [S Berrien, W Cass] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore and added more of interior Berrien County.  Teacher Brad Paquette (R) was first elected in 2018.  Naomi Ludman is the D nominee.

38. [Berrien to Allegan lakeshore] Tossup
P16: 46.1 G18: 44.9 AG18: 46.5 P20: 44.6
This absurd district runs about 75 miles along the Lake Michigan shoreline from New Buffalo to Saugatuck.  It is barely a mile wide at one point.  Apparently, people who live close to a lake form a community of interest.  This district promotes "partisan fairness" since it favors Ds.
The R nominee is accountant Kevin Whiteford, the husband of term-limited Allegan County state rep (16-22) Mary Whiteford.  The D nominee is Joey Andrews, an AFL-CIO operative who lost a bid for state house in N Berrien in 2018.
39. [Van Buren] Safe R
P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore of Van Buren and added parts of Berrien and Allegan.  Pauline Wendzel (R), a businesswoman who was elected to a N Berrien district in 2018, is running here after her district was split into several pieces.  She defeated Matt Nilson 57-43.  Jared Polonowski is the D nominee.

40. [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas] Lean D
P16: 42 G18: 41 AG18: 44.6 P20: 40
This area was R-held until 2020, when county commissioner Christine Morse (D) won an open seat. It has a lot of upscale suburban areas that have moved left under Trump.  The new district loses R areas of Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde, and Oshtemo precinct 1 and adds two precincts in Kalamazoo.  The R candidate is Kalamazoo GOP vice-chair Kelly Sackett, who protested school mask mandates.  This district is a long shot, but could be competitive if suburbs return to voting R.

41. [Kalamazoo city] Safe D
P16: 23 G18: 22 AG18: 24 P20: 23
County commissioner Julie Rogers (D) was elected in 2020 after losing earlier bids in 2006 and 2008.  The R candidates is Terry Haines.
42. [rural Kalamazoo, Plainwell] Safe R
P16: 52.9 G18: 49.4 AG18: 53.2 P20: 52.6
This district includes about half of the district currently represented by Matt Hall, along with parts of three other districts.  Hall was first elected in 2018, defeating a moderate incumbent, and is now in line to be the R leader next term.  He moved here from Calhoun County after being put in the same district as Sarah Lightner (R) of Jackson County.  She refused to move, but eventually agreed to drop her own leadership bid and support Hall.  The D nominee is Justin Mendoza.

43. [Allegan, S Barry] Safe R
P16: 67 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 69
This absurd district includes the majority of Allegan County, southern Barry County, one township from Eaton County, and part of a township in Ottawa County.  Allegan incumbent reps Mary Whiteford and Steve Johnson are both term-limited.  Martin Township Clerk Rachelle Smit won the R nomination due to the Trump endorsement and strong fundraising.  Mark Ludwig is the D nominee.

44. [Battle Creek, Albion] Tossup
P16: 48.1 G18: 44.4 AG18: 47.3 P20: 49.4
This district was drawn as a gerrymander to put the most D areas of Calhoun in one district to protect then-speaker Jase Bolger (R) in a neighboring district.  Incredibly, the redistricting commission maintained this gerrymander.  County commissioner Jim Haadsma (D) was elected to this open seat in 2018.  For the third straight election, the R candidate is Dave Morgan, who lost with 48.2% in 2018 and 48.7% in 2020.  Morgan was the Calhoun dem chairman and lost state house races in 2010 and 2014 as a D, before serving as Pennfield Township supervisor as an R 2016-20.
45. [S Calhoun, W Jackson] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Sarah Lightner (R) was first elected in 2018 in a rural Jackson County district.  The new district includes the majority of the current district represented by Matt Hall (R).  Lightner refused to move, but eventually agreed to drop her own leadership bid and support Hall.  The D nominee is Ron Hawkins, who has lost previous bids for state house in 2018 and 2020.

46. [Jackson city] Lean R
P16: 48 G18: 44.4 AG18: 46.8 P20: 49.1
This district was gerrymandered by adding Chelsea in Washtenaw County and removing rural R townships.  Julie Alexander (R) is term limited.  Broadcaster Kathy Schmaltz won the R nomination.  AFL-CIO staffer Maurice Imhoff, who is age 20, is the D nominee.  He was disowned by the D establishment due to having made violent threats as a high school student.  He ended, then restarted, his campaign.

47. [W Ann Arbor, SW Jackson] Safe D
P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson County.  Rep. Donna Lasinski (D) lives here, but is term limited.  Social work lecturer Carrie Rheingans won the D nomination.  Tina Bednarski-Lynch won the R nomination.
48. [N Ann Arbor, SC Livingston] Tossup
P16: 48.1 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.5 P20: 46.6
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson and Livingston Counties.  Journalist Jennifer Conlin is the D nominee.  Marine veteran and pastor Jason Woolford won the R nomination.

49. [SE Livington, Wixom] Safe R
P16: 54.9 G18: 51.2 AG18: 53.7 P20: 53.2
Ann Bollin was first elected in 2018.  Chase Turner, who lost bids for state house in Oakland County in 2018 and 2020, attempted to run here, but was disqualified due to campaign finance issues.  The D nominee is Christina Kafkakis.

50. [N, W Livingston] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Former Livingston County Sheriff Bob Bezotte (R) was elected in 2020.  Glen Miller is the D nominee.

51. [White Lake, Milford] Safe R
P16: 61 G18: 56 AG18: 58 P20: 59
Matt Maddock, an antiestablishment leader who has the Trump endorsement, was first elected in 2018.  He has floated running for R leader.  Sarah May-Seward is the D candidate.

52. [Waterford, Independence] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 53 AG18: 56 P20: 57
Police officer Mike Harris (R) was elected in a 2022 special election, following the death of Andrea Schroeder.  Robin McGregor is the D nominee.

53. [Pontiac, S Waterford] Safe D
P16: 30 G18: 28 AG18: 29 P20: 32
Brenda Carter (D) was first elected in 2018.  Waterford Township Trustee Anthony Bartolotta is a surprisingly credible candidate for this seat.  He previously lost the 2018 R primary for a state house seat to Andrea Schroeder.

54. [N Bloomfield, Auburn Hills, Orion] Lean R
P16: 51.2 G18: 48.4 AG18: 50.8 P20: 48.3
This is a rare example of a good draw for Rs (though not very compact), which puts shaky territory in Bloomfield Township with more R Orion Township to the north.  Orion Township Treasurer and realtor Donni Steele won the R nomination.  Businesswoman Shadia Martini won the D nomination.

55. [Rochester Hills] Lean R
P16: 50.9 G18: 48.2 AG18: 51.1 P20: 48.1
This historically conservative wealthy suburban seat has trended left under Trump.  Rochester Hills City Council member Mark Tisdell (R) won a highly competitive general election in 2020.  Businesswoman Patricia Bernard won the D nomination.
56. [Troy] Lean D
P16: 45.1 G18: 42 AG18: 44.6 P20: 41.3
This wealthy suburban seat has trended left under Trump.  Padma Kuppa (D), first elected in 2018, is running for state senate.  The D nominee is marketing manager Sharon MacDonell.  Businessman Mark Gunn is the R nominee.

57. [W Sterling Heights] Lean R
P16: 52 G18: 46.4 AG18: 48.4 P20: 53.1
Diana Farrington (R) is term limited.  Immigration lawyer Aisha Farooqi is the D nominee.  Oakland County Commissioner and attorney Thomas Kuhn is the R nominee.

58. [E Sterling Heights] Tossup
P16: 52.5 G18: 45.4 AG18: 48 P20: 52.1
This district is very oddly shaped for no clear reason.  Nate Shannon (D) was first elected in 2018.  He defeated a deeply flawed R opponent 53-47 in 2020.  Businesswoman Michelle Smith won the R nomination.

59. [Shelby Twp] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 61 P20: 63
State rep (18-21) Doug Wozniak won a 2021 special election for a Macomb-based state senate seat.  Terence Mekoski, a retired police officer who finished third in the R primary won by Wozniak, then won the special election to replace him.  Redistricting put Wozniak in the same district as Senator Ruth Johnson, and he chose to run for state house against Mekoski.  Wozniak, an establishment R, defeated Mekoski, a Stop the Steal candidate, 52-34.  James Diez is the D nominee.

60. [Macomb Twp] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 51.4 AG18: 55 P20: 58
Jeff Yaroch (R) is term limited.  Former Clinton Townshp Trustee Joseph Aragona will be the R nominee.  Stop the Steal activist Mellissa Carone moved to this district from Wayne County intending to run for state house, but she was disqualified from the ballot due to failure to file campaign finance reports.  Linda Clor won the D nomination.

61. [Clinton Twp] Lean D
P16: 50.3 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.8 P20: 49.5
This district moved slightly right, losing SW Clinton Township.  William Sowerby (D) is term limited.
Mount Clemens City Commissioner Denise Mentzer is the D nominee.  Chiropractor Mike Aiello won the R nomination after being disqualified when he ran for state house in 2016.

62. [Harrison Twp] Lean R
P16: 52.8 G18: 46.1 AG18: 48.2 P20: 52.7
Compared to the old district containing Harrison Township, this district moved left a few points.  Steve Marino (R) is term limited.  His reputation was badly damaged by revelations that he had an affair with Rep. Mari Manoogian (D) and had made bizarre threats against her.  He was removed from his committees, but was not charged with a crime.  Alicia St. Germaine won the R nomination, defeating Steve's father Joe Marino.  Michael Brooks is the D nominee.

63. [Chesterfield Twp, S St. Clair] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 65
Pamela Hornberger is term limited and running for state senate. St. Clair County Clerk Jay DeBoyer won the R nomination.  Democrat Kelly Noland is the D nominee.

64. [E St. Clair] Safe R
P16: 58 G18: 49.5 AG18: 52.6 P20: 59
R incumbents Andrew Beeler (20-P) and Gary Eisen (18-P) both live here and ran here, even though there are several neighboring seats that are open, and either could have moved.  Beeler won the R nomination 67-26.  Charles Howell is the D nominee.

65. [W St. Clair, E Lapeer] Safe R
P16: 70 G18: 62 AG18: 65 P20: 71
This district has pieces of the old districts of Gary Howell, Pamela Hornberger, and Jeff Yaroch, who are all term limited, and Gary Eisen, who lost renomination in a Port Huron area district.  Navy veteran and Richmond City Councilmember Jaime Greene won the R nomination.  Mark Lingeman won the D nomination.

66. [NE Oakland] Safe R
P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Rep. John Reilly (R) is term limited.  Teacher Josh Schriver won the R nomination with a libertarian-leaning platform.  Emily Busch is the D nominee.

67. [W Lapeer, NE Genesee] Safe R
P16: 58 G18: 50.2 AG18: 54 P20: 60
This district includes about half of the districts of Gary Howell (R), who is term limited, and David Martin (R), who lives in a neighboring district.  In one of the few good draws for Rs, this district absorbs some D-leaning areas near Flint while remaining safe R.  It also includes one township from Tuscola County, which happens to be where state rep (18-P) Phil Green (R) lives.  Green, the son of senator (10-18) Mike Green, ran in this district, which is almost entirely new to him.  Green won an 8-way R primary with 25.5%.  Brian LaJoie is the D nominee.

68. [Burton, Davison] Lean R
P16: 52.5 G18: 45.5 AG18: 49.9 P20: 52.3
This district contains the residences of Tim Sneller (D), who is term limited, and David Martin (R).  Martin, a county commissioner from Davison who upset an incumbent D in 2020 in a NW Genesee district, ran here.  This district is slightly to the right of Martin's old district, and the area has moved significantly right under Trump.  Journalist Cheri Hardmon won the D nomination.

69. [W Genesee] Safe D
P16: 41 G18: 36 AG18: 40 P20: 42
State rep (18-22) John D. Cherry is running for state senate.  Legislative staffer Jasper Martus won the D nomination.  Jesse Couch is the R nominee.
70. [Flint] Safe D
P16: 17 G18: 14 AG18: 16 P20: 19
Due to population loss in Flint, this district expanded from being contained within Flint to containing Flint and some suburban areas.  It has a black majority.  Cynthia Neeley (D) won a 2020 special election to replace her husband Sheldon Neeley after he was elected mayor of Flint.  Tim Butler won the R nomination.

71. [Shiawassee] Safe R
P16: 57 G18: 50.4 AG18: 56 P20: 60
Ben Frederick (R) is term limited.  Shiawassee County Sheriff Brian BeGole won the R nomination.  Mark Zacharda is the D nominee.

72. [Fenton, Grand Blanc] Safe R
P16: 55 G18: 49.6 AG18: 53 P20: 55
This district added some competitive areas near Flint.  It shifted slightly left, but is still safe.  Former police officer Mike Mueller (R) was first elected in 2018.  Stacy Taylor won the D nomination.

73. [rural Ingham] Lean D
P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 43 P20: 44
This rural Ingham district loses Delhi Township and adds part of East Lansing.  It is usually close, but never close enough for Rs to win.  Julie Brixie (D) was elected in 2018 to a district based in East Lansing and Meridian Township.  Norm Shinkle (R) was state senator (1982-90) from Monroe County.  After relocating to the Lansing area, he served in many leadership positions in the local and state GOP, and is currently on the state board of canvassers.  He surprisingly filed to run for this seat at the last minute.

74. [S Lansing, Delhi Twp] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 31 P20: 31
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing.  Kara Hope (D) was elected to a largely rural and suburban district in 2018 but lives here.  Jennifer Sokol is the R nominee.
75. [Meridian Twp, SE Clinton] Safe D
P16: 39 G18: 35 AG18: 40 P20: 38
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits East Lansing and absorbs rural R areas.  Former Ingham County Commissioner Penelope Tsernoglou, who lost to Julie Brixie in the 2018 D primary for state house, won the D nomination.  Chris Stewart is the R nominee.

76. [Eaton] Tossup
P16: 47.9 G18: 42.9 AG18: 46.9 P20: 47.9
This district flipped several times over the past decade, and usually has close races.  Angela Witwer (D) was first elected with 50.8% in 2018 and was reelected with 51.2% in 2020.  Eaton County Commissioner Jeremy Whittum is the R nominee, but has raised little money.

77. [N Lansing, SW Clinton] Safe D
P16: 37 G18: 33 AG18: 38 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing and absorbs rural R areas of Clinton County.  Sarah Anthony (D) lives here but is running for state senate, and Graham Filler (R) lived here, but moved north to a safe district.  Leftist activist Emily Dievendorf won the D nomination.  John Magoola is the R nominee.

78. [Ionia, NE Barry] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 56 AG18: 61 P20: 63
This is essentially the Ionia/Barry County seat of term-limited rep Julie Calley, but it includes small parts of Eaton and Kent Counties.  Former Eaton County commissioner Christine Barnes and businesswoman Gina Johnsen faced off in the 2020 R primary for an Eaton County seat (Johnsen won the primary but lost the general).  Johnsen won 42% over Barnes and two other candidates in the R primary.   Leah Groves is the D nominee.

79. [S Kent] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 63
This district has most of the southern tier of Kent, plus three townships from Barry and one from Allegan.  Angela Rigas won the R nomination with help from a Trump endorsement.  She unsuccessfully challenged rep Lisa Lyons in the 2014 R primary, and was on the capital grounds on January 6.  The D nominee is Kimberly Kennedy-Barrington.

80. [Kentwood, East Grand Rapids] Lean D
P16: 42.7 G18: 43 AG18: 46.1 P20: 39.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Kent County Commissioner Phil Skaggs won the D nomination.  Attorney Jeffrey Johnson is the R nominee.

81. [NE Grand Rapids, Ada Twp] Lean D
P16: 45.5 G18: 43.3 AG18: 46.6 P20: 41.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Rachel Hood (D), who was first elected to a peripheral Grand Rapids district, now lives here.  Rep. Lynn Afendoulis (18-20), who lost a race for Congress in 2020, is the R nominee.

82. [SE Grand Rapids] Safe D
P16: 24 G18: 25 AG18: 27 P20: 23
Rep. Dave LaGrand (D) is term limited and running for state senate.  Grand Rapids school board member Kristian Grant won the D nomination.  Ryan Malinoski won the R nomination.
83. [Wyoming, SW Grand Rapids] Lean D
P16: 46.2 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.9 P20: 44
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost heavily R Byron Township and added part of Grand Rapids.  Rep Tommy Brann (R) is term limited and running for state senate.  Wyoming City Councilmember John Fitzgerald won the D nomination.  Businesswoman Lisa DeKryger is the R nominee.

84. [W Grand Rapids, Walker, Grandville] Tossup
P16: 47.5 G18: 43.8 AG18: 47.1 P20: 43.7
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Walker City Commissioner Carol Glanville (D) was elected 52-40 in a normally safe R district in a May 2022 special election after the election of Mark Huizenga to the state senate.  The R nominee in that election was Robert Regan, who had made many controversial comments on rape, feminism, and Putin's war that came to light after the primary.  Regan, who previously lost house races in 2014, 2018, and 2020, lost again this year.  Loan officer Mike Milanowski, who ran as a write-in in the special, receiving about 8% of the vote, won the R nomination with 51% this time.

85. [Jenison, Zeeland] Safe R
P16: 71 G18: 69 AG18: 72 P20: 67
Bradley Slagh was first elected in 2018.  Todd Avery is the D nominee.

86. [Holland] Safe R
P16: 51.7 G18: 51.4 AG18: 54.4 P20: 49.3
This Holland-area district has trended left, but is more R downballot.  Former Holland Mayor Nancy De Boer won the R nomination.  Larry Jackson, the D nominee, has been disowned by the D establishment due to a criminal past.

87. [Muskegon city] Safe D
P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 37 P20: 39
This district is open, as Terry Sabo is term limited and running for state senate.  Will Snyder, district director for Terry Sabo, won the D nomination.  The R nominee is Michael Haueisen.

88. [Grand Haven, Norton Shores] Safe R
P16: 54.5 G18: 51.7 AG18: 55.3 P20: 53.7
Greg VanWoerkom, son of state senator (02-10) Jerry VanWoerkom, was elected to the rural Muskegon district in 2018.  That district was chopped into three pieces, and his home is in this district that contains much of the district of term-limited rep Jim Lilly.  VanWoerkom won the R nomination with 63% over former missionary Mick Bricker, who got the Trump endorsement.  Christine Baker won the D nomination.

89. [E Ottawa, SE Muskegon] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 61 AG18: 64 P20: 66
This district adds a chunk of Muskegon County.  Luke Meerman (R) was first elected in 2018.  The D nominee is Sharon McConnon.

90. [NC Kent] Safe R
P16: 60 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 59
Bryan Posthumus (R) was first elected in 2020.  He is the son of LG (1998-2002) Dick Posthumus and brother of Kent County Clerk Lisa Lyons.  Meagan Hintz is the D nominee.

91. [Montcalm] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 67
Pat Outman, the son of senator (18-P) Rick Outman, was first elected in 2020.  Tammy DeVries won the D nomination.

92. [Isabella, N Gratiot] Lean R
P16: 50.8 G18: 46.4 AG18: 50.2 P20: 53
This district is drawn in the way most beneficial to Ds.  While it keeps Isabella County whole, it includes northern Gratiot County, which is the most pro-D area in any of the five neighboring counties.  Roger Hauck (R) is term limited and running for state senate.  Farmer Jerry Neyer won the R nomination.  CMU professor Anthony Feig is the D nominee.  He previously lost the D primary for MI-4 in 2020.
93. [W Saginaw, S Gratiot, N Clinton] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Graham Filler (R) was first elected in 2018.  He moved into this new district after his house was put into a D-heavy district as part of the gerrymander of the Lansing area.  Jeffrey Lockwood is the D nominee.

94. [Saginaw city] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 32 P20: 32
Saginaw County commissioner Amos O'Neal (D) was elected in 2020.  James Shepler is the R nominee.

95. [Midland] Safe R
P16: 57 G18: 55 AG18: 57 P20: 57
State rep Annette Glenn (18-22) is running for state senate.  Former DIA officer Bill G. Schuette, the son of former AG (10-18) Bill Schuette, won the R nomination.  Matthew Dawson won the D nomination.

96. [Bay County] Lean R
P16: 52.3 G18: 45.9 AG18: 48.8 P20: 53.7
Bay County was long a D stronghold, but it has been moving right.  Bangor Township School Board member Timothy Beson (R) defeated a D incumbent in an upset in 2020.  Bay County Commissioner Kim Coonan is the D nominee.

97. [E Saginaw, W Tuscola] Safe R
P16: 63 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 64
This strange district neighbors four urban areas, and has an arm to take in rural areas between the tri-cities (Saginaw, Midland, and Bay City).  Rodney Wakeman (R) was first elected to a suburban Saginaw district in 2018.  Former Tuscola County Commissioner Matthew Bierlein is the district director for Senator Kevin Daley.  He lost a close race for the 2018 R nomination for a state house seat in the Thumb to Phil Green.  Bierlein won the R nomination 59-30 over Wakeman.  Paul Whitney is the D nominee.

98. [the Thumb] Safe R
P16: 69 G18: 63 AG18: 66 P20: 71
This district is mostly represented by incumbents Phil Green and Andrew Beeler, but they both live in (and are seeking reelection in) neighboring districts.  Former Sanilac County drain commissioner and farmer Gregory Alexander, who finished a close second to Beeler for the R nomination for a state house seat in 2020, won the R nomination.  Robert Mroczek is the D nominee.

99. [Iosco, Arenac, Ogemaw, Gladwin] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 58 AG18: 59 P20: 67
This district has the majority of the current district of Speaker Jason Wentworth, who is term limited.  Au Gres Mayor and hunting store owner Mike Hoadley, who got the Trump endorsement and support from the DeVos family, won the R nomination.  Kenneth Kish is the D nominee.

100. [Mecosta, Osceola, Clare] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 67
This district combines parts of the districts of Michelle Hoitenga and Jason Wentworth, who are both term limited.  Grant Township Board member Tom Kunse won the R nomination unopposed.  Reed City councilman Nate Bailey is the D nominee.

101. [Newaygo, Lake] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 60 AG18: 63 P20: 67
Scott VanSingel (R) is term limited.  Former director of the Newaygo County Commission on Aging Joseph Fox won the R nomination.  Amanda Siggins is the D nominee.

102. [Muskegon to Manistee lakeshore] Safe R
P16: 56 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 58
This district was assembled from pieces of three existing districts.  Senator (18-22) Curt VanderWall was previously a state rep (16-18) representing one of them.  Redistricting put him in a district largely represented by senator Jon Bumstead.  VanderWall won the R nomination for state house rather than challenge Bumstead or move to a different district.  Assistant prosecutor Brian Hosticka is the D nominee.  He previously lost to Rep. Greg VanWoerkom in a rural Muskegon district in 2020.

103. [Leelanau, Traverse City] Tossup
P16: 49.9 G18: 46.6 AG18: 49.5 P20: 46.9
This district is gerrymandered to combine Leelanau County with the Traverse City area in a way that is the best for Ds.  Grand Traverse County is split, even though it has the right population for a single district.  District 103 contained the residences of two R incumbents, Jack O'Malley and John Roth.  
O'Malley was first elected to a lakeshore district in 2018.  Roth moved to a neighboring district to avoid a primary.  Grand Traverse County Commissioner Betsy Coffia, who previously lost races for state house in 2012, 2014, and 2016, won the D nomination.
104. [S Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Antrim] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 62
The oddly shaped district contains parts of six counties but all of none.  John Roth (R) was first elected in 2020.  He moved to this district to avoid a primary with fellow incumbent Jack O'Malley.  He barely defeated businesswoman Katie Kniss 52-48 for the R nomination.  Cathy Albro is the D nominee.  She lost MI-3 against Justin Amash in 2018.

105. [Roscommon, Crawford, Otsego, Missaukee] Safe R
P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 65 P20: 68
This district has parts of the current districts of Ken Borton and Daire Rendon.  Rendon, who has embraced Stop the Steal and flirted with QAnon, is term limited.  Otsego County Commissioner Ken Borton, who was first elected in 2020, won the R nomination here.  Adam Wojdan is the D nominee.

106. [NE Lower Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 66
Sue Allor (R) is term limited.  Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner Cam Cavitt won the R nomination.  Marie Fielder is the D nominee.  

107. [Mackinac Bridge area] Safe R
P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 57
Documentary producer John Damoose, who easily won the R nomination in 2020, is running for state senate.  Property manager Neil Friske won the R nomination.  Jodi Decker is the D nominee.

108. [Menominee to Chippewa] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 64
Beau LaFave is term limited, and unsuccessfully sought the R endorsement for secretary of state.  Menominee County Commissioner and paramedic David Prestin won the R nomination.  Chris Lopez is the D nominee.

109. [Marquette] Lean D
P16: 48.6 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.1 P20: 48
Trump won this district, but it is more D downballot.  Sara Cambensy (D) is term limited.  Marquette City Commissioner Jenn Hill won the D nomination. Former farmer and police officer Melody Wagner won the R nomination, after losing races for this district in 2016, 2018, and 2020, the latter two to Cambensy.

110. [W Upper Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 54 AG18: 55 P20: 59
Gregory Markkanen (R) won this historically D district in an upset in in 2018.  Casey VerBerkmoes is the D nominee.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe D: 36 (1-19, 23-26, 32, 33, 41, 47, 53, 69, 70, 74-75, 77, 82, 87, 94)
Lean D: 11 (20, 21, 31, 40, 56, 61, 73, 80, 81, 83, 109)
Tossup: 11 (22, 27, 28, 29, 38, 44, 48, 58, 76, 84, 103)
Lean R: 8 (46, 54, 55, 57, 62, 68, 92, 96)
Safe R: 44 (30, 34-37, 39, 42, 43, 45, 49-52, 59, 60, 63-67, 71, 72, 78, 79, 85, 86, 88-91, 93, 95, 97-102, 104-108, 110)

Tuesday, October 18, 2022

2022 State Supreme Court Election Preview

A majority of states have elections for state Supreme Court in November.  Here is a guide to the contested elections.  The elections in Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas seem to be the most competitive.

Ballotpedia:  2022 State Supreme Court Elections

Place 5: Greg Cook (R) faces Anita Kelly (D) for the seat of Michael Bolin (R), who is age-limited.
Place 6: Kelli Wise (R) is unopposed for reelection.

Arizona:  Justices James Beene, Bill Montgomery, and Ann Timmer (all R-appointed) face a retention election.

Position 2: Incumbent Robin Wynne (D leaning) who got 49.5% in the nonpartisan primary, faces Chris Carnahan (R leaning), who got 29% in the primary.

California: Justices Joshua Groban, Patricia Guerrero, Martin Jenkins, and Goodwin Liu (all D-appointed) face a retention election.

Florida:  Justices Jamie Rutland Grosshans, John Couriel, Ricky Polston, Charles Canady, and Jorge Labarga face a retention election.  All except Labarga are conservative.  Some newspapers are recommended a no vote on the other four.

District 1 (Cook County): Justice Mary Jane Theis faces a retention election.
District 2 (Northeast): Former Lake County Sheriff Mark Curran (R) faces Elizabeth Rochford (D).
District 3 (areas S, W of Chicago): Justice Michael Burke (R) faces judge Mary O'Brien (D).

Iowa: Justices Matthew McDermott and Dana Oxley (both R-appointed) face a retention election.

Kansas:  Justice Daniel Biles, Marla Luckert, Evelyn Wilson, Caleb Stegall, Keynen Wall, and Melissa Standridge face a retention election.  All but Stegall are D-appointed.

District 1 (west): Incumbent Christopher Nickell is unopposed.
District 2 (west-central): Shawn Alcott (conservative) faces Kelly Thompson for the seat of retiring Justice John Minton.
District 4 (Jefferson County): Angela McCormick Bisig faces Jason Bowman.
District 6 (north): Incumbent Michelle Keller faces state rep Joseph Fischer (R) in a race that has attracted much outside spending.

Maryland:  Justice Steven Gould (R-appointed) faces a retention election.

Michigan:  There are two full-term seats up for election. They are those of conservative R incumbent Brian Zahra and liberal D incumbent Richard Bernstein.  Bernstein attracted controversy for voting to uphold Whitmer's lockdown measures and then leaving the country to work from Dubai for months during the pandemic.  The other R nominee is Paul Hudson, an attorney who clerked for Ray Kethledge (6th Circuit).  The other D nominee is state rep (18-22) Kyra Harris Bolden of Southfield.

Minnesota:  Justices Gordon Moore and Natalie Hudson (both D-appointed) face a retention election.

Missouri:  Justices Robin Ransom and Zel Fischer (both R-appointed) face a retention election.

Montana:  Two justices faces nonpartisan elections in a state that has seen major conflict between the courts and the legislature.
Justice James Rice (moderate R), who got 76% in the primary, faces Bill D'Alton.
Justice Ingrid Gayle Gustafson (D-aligned) faces James Brown (R-aligned) in a race that attracted significant spending.

Nebraska:  Justices Jonathan Papik, William Cassel, John Freudenberg, and Michael Heavican face a retention election.

Nevada:  Linda Bell is unopposed for the seat of James Hardesty, who did not seek reelection.
Incumbent Ron Parraguirre is also unopposed.

New Mexico:  Michael Vigil (D) faces a retention election.  Incumbent Julie Vargas (D) faces Thomas Montoya (R).  Incumbent Briana Zamora (D) faces Kerry Morris (R).

North Carolina:  There are two seats up for partisan election.
Seat 3: Justice Robin Hudson (D) is retiring, as she is near the age limit.  North Carolina Court of Appeals judges Lucy Inman (D) and Richard Dietz (R) are unopposed for their parties’ nominations.
Seat 5: Justice Sam Ervin IV (D) is running for reelection.  The R nominee is Trey Allen, general counsel for the North Carolina Administrative Office of the Court.

North Dakota:  Incumbent Daniel Crothers is unopposed in a nonpartisan election.

Ohio:  Three seats are up for election.
Justice Sharon Kennedy (R) will face Justice Jennifer Brunner (D) for the seat of age-limited Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor.
Justice Pat Fischer (R) will face appeals court judge Terri Jamison (D).
Justice Pat DeWine (son of Governor Mike DeWine) will face appeals court judge Marilyn Zayas (D).

Oklahoma:  Justices James Winchester, Douglas Combs, Dustin Rowe, and Dana Kuehn face a retention election.  The latter two are conservative, while the first two are not.

Oregon:  Justice Roger DeHoog (D-appointed) faces a retention election.

South Dakota:  Justices Mark Salter and Patricia DeVaney face a retention election.

Texas Supreme Court:  There are three R incumbents up for election.
Place 3: Debra Lehrmann (R) faces Erin Nowell (D).
Place 5: Rebeca Huddle (R) faces Amanda Reichek (D).
Place 9: Evan Young (R) faces Julia Maldonado (D).

Texas Court of Criminal Appeals: There are three R incumbents up for election.
Place 2: Mary Lou Keel (R) is unopposed.
Place 5: Scott Walker (R) faces Dana Huffman (D).
Place 6: Jesse McClure III (R) faces Robert Johnson (D).

Utah:  Justice Paige Petersen faces a retention election.

Washington:  Incumbents Mary Yu, Helen Whitener, and Barbara Madsen are unopposed in a nonpartisan election.


Alabama:  Greg Cook (R) won with 67%.
Arkansas:  Incumbent Robin Wynne (D leaning) won with 58%.
Florida:  All five justices were retained with 62-64%.
Illinois:  In District 2, Elizabeth Rochford (D) won with 54%.  In District 3, judge Mary O’Brien (D) won with 50.6%.
Kansas:  Six justices were retained with 65-73%.
Kentucky:  Thompson and Keller, the two less conservative candidates, won with 55% and 62%.
Michigan:  Incumbents Brian Zahra (R) and Richard Bernstein (D) were reelected.
Montana:  Justice Ingrid Gayle Gustafson (D-aligned) won with 54%.
North Carolina:  In Seat 3, North Carolina Court of Appeals judge Richard Dietz (R) won with 52.6% over fellow judge Lucy Inman (D).  In Seat 5, Trey Allen, general counsel for the North Carolina Administrative Office of the Court, won with 52.4% over Justice Sam Ervin IV (D).
Ohio:  Justice Sharon Kennedy (R) was elected chief justice with 56%.  Justice Pat Fischer (R) and Justice Pat DeWine won with 57% and 56%.
Texas:  Rs won the five contested races with 56-57%.