Sunday, April 24, 2022

2022 Michigan State Senate Races

Last updated July 23, 2022.

All 38 seats in the Michigan Senate are up for election in 2022.  Republicans currently have a 22-16 majority, and have controlled the senate since 1983.  The Michigan state senate is up only in midterms, which usually favor Republicans more than presidential years.  However, Republicans lost five seats in the bad year of 2018.

Michigan has a new state senate map, thanks to the Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew lines that split many counties and split Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, and the Lansing area to benefit Ds.  The city of Detroit was split to reduce the number of black-majority districts from five to zero.  The commission created several competitive districts.

Michigan Redistricting: State Senate Map Approved

Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and MICRC.

Michigan State Senate Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan State Senate Map-MICRC

2022 Candidate List (Michigan Secretary of State)

Three R and one D incumbents had to move.  Seven senators are term-limited.  Two senators are running for congress, two are running for state house, and one just retired.  One was disqualified from the ballot.  There will be one incumbent-v-incumbent primary.  There will also be several interesting general election races. 

All but seven current state senators are former state representatives.  Two senators (LaSata, Theis) face primary challengers endorsed by President Trump, and there will be several interesting primaries in safe seats.  Consider the districts in detail.

The election data for each district is the R candidates for President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)

1. [SC Detroit, Taylor] Safe D
P16: 27 G18: 24 AG18: 25 P20: 30
This seat is 37% black and 17% Hispanic.  It loses much of downriver and adds a chunk of Detroit.  Erika Geiss lives here and will run for reelection. She is being challenged by former state rep (14-20) Frank Liberati and four other Ds.  Erik Soderquist will be the R nominee.

2. 26R, 74D [Dearborn, Dearborn Heights] Safe D
P16: 26 G18: 23 AG18: 24 P20: 26
This seat is 26% black, and now has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Sylvia Santana represents most of this seat and will run here.  Maurice Sanders is also seeking the D nomination.  Harry Sawicki will be the R nominee.

3. 26R, 74D [central Detroit, Warren, Madison Heights] Safe D
P16: 20 G18: 17 AG18: 18 P20: 21
This seat is 44% black.  Stephanie Chang will run for reelection here.  Adam Hollier also lives here, but is running for Congress instead.  Also seeking the D nomination is Toinu Reeves.

4. 48R, 52D [S Wayne] Lean D
P16: 46.5 G18: 39.9 AG18: 41.8 P20: 47.1
This area has moved toward Trump, but votes more D downballot.  Erika Geiss represents much of this seat, but lives in Taylor, and will run in district 1.  Ds have a strong candidate in state rep Darrin Camilleri (16-22) who flipped a seat that voted for Trump in 2016.  James Chapman, Michael Frazier, Houston James, and Beth Socia are seeking the R nomination.

5. 41R, 59D [Canton, Westland] Safe D
P16: 40 G18: 36 AG18: 38 P20: 39
Compared to old 7, this seat lost Plymouth/Northville and added Westland and Inkster.  This area has moved left, and Dayna Polehanki flipped it D in 2018.  Also seeking the D nomination is Velma Jean Overman.  Emily Bauman, Jody Rice-White, and Leonard Scott Jr. are seeking the R nomination.

6. 31R, 69D [Livonia, Redford, Farmington Hills] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 30 P20: 30
This seat is 41% black.  Incumbent Betty Jean Alexander is a political lightweight who beat white incumbent David Knezek in a huge primary upset in 2018.  She was disqualified from the ballot due to campaign finance violations.  One D candidate is former state rep (08-14) and Farmington Hills Mayor Vicki Barnett, who lost a close race for state senate in 2014.  Also running are 30-year-old state rep (20-P) Mary Cavanagh, who recently pled to 'superdrunk' driving, and Darryl Brown.  The R nominee will be Ken Crider.
7. 26R, 74D [Southfield, Pontiac, Bloomfield Hills] Safe D
P16: 25 G18: 25 AG18: 26 P20: 25
The most black district (47% black) on the map is mostly in Oakland.  White incumbent Jeremy Moss will run for reelection.  Rosemary Bayer also lived here, but moved to run in district 13.  Ryan Foster and Vernon Molnar are also seeking the D nomination.  The R nominee will be Corinne Khederian.

8. 22R, 78D [N Detroit, Royal Oak] Safe D
P16: 22 G18: 21 AG18: 22 P20: 22
This seat is 42% black.  White incumbent Mallory McMorrow of Royal Oak and black incumbent Marshall Bullock of Detroit are both running here.  McMorrow raised a huge sum due to a viral video attacking an R senator.  The R candidate is Brandon Simpson.

9. 51R, 49D [Troy, Rochester Hills, Sterling Heights] Lean R
P16: 51 G18: 47.3 AG18: 50 P20: 49.2
This 17% Asian seat is an improvement on old district 13.  Mallory McMorrow represents about 2/3 of this seat, but will run in district 8.  State rep. (14-20) Michael Webber (R) of Rochester Hills will face state rep (18-P) Padma Kuppa (D) of Troy.

10. 34R, 66D [E Detroit, Warren, Sterling Heights] Safe D
P16: 33 G18: 30 AG18: 31 P20: 34
This seat is 42% black.  White incumbent Paul Wojno of Warren will run here.  He could face a primary from a Detroit candidate.  Joe Hunt and Paul Smith, who lost a 2020 state house seat, are seeking the R nomination.

11. 50R, 50D [Macomb Twp, Clinton Twp, Roseville] Tossup
P16: 48.6 G18: 42.2 AG18: 44.2 P20: 48.2
This slice of Macomb has moved R, but votes more D downballot.  Incumbent Michael MacDonald (R) will run here.  If he wins, he will be the first R in many decades to represent part of Detroit.  Conspiracy theorist Melissa Carone, who was disqualified from a state house run for campaign finance violations, was also disqualified for this seat.  Macomb County Commissioner Veronica Klinefelt, William Collins, and Monique Owens are seeking the D nomination.

12. 53R, 47D [Lake St. Clair shoreline] Lean R
P16: 52.2 G18: 46.4 AG18: 48.9 P20: 51.5
This district hugging the Lake St. Clair shoreline is actually a good draw for Rs.  Unlike the congressional and state house maps, the Grosse Pointes are not drowned in a Detroit district.  State rep. (16-22) Pam Hornberger (R) of Chesterfield Township, who narrowly lost a state senate special primary in 2021, will run here.  Michael Williams is also seeking the R nomination.  State rep (16-22) Kevin Hertel (D) of St. Clair Shores will run here.

13. 44R, 56D [West Bloomfield, Novi, Northville, Plymouth] Lean D
P16: 43.8 G18: 41.2 AG18: 43.2 P20: 42.2
Ten years ago, this would have been an R district, but these upscale suburban areas moved left under Trump.  Incumbent Rosemary Bayer (D) represents only tiny Keego Harbor (pop. 2970) and Sylvan Lake (pop. 1720), where she moved to avoid a primary with Jeremy Moss in district 8.  Jason Rhines and Brian Williams are seeking the R nomination.

14. 45R, 55D [N Washtenaw, Jackson] Lean D
P16: 43.8 G18: 40.4 AG18: 42.4 P20: 43.9
In one of the outrageous pro-D gerrymanders on the map, Ann Arbor is split in half in an attempt to drown most of Jackson County in a D district.  Possible student turnout dropoff and the possibility of an Ann Arbor progressive being nominated are only barely keeping this seat competitive.  Washtenaw County Commissioner Sue Shink, former Jackson City Council Member Kelsey Wood, and activist Val Cochran Toops are seeking the D nomination.  Grass Lake Township Trustee Tim Golding will be the R nominee.
15. 27R, 73D [S Washtenaw] Safe D
P16: 27 G18: 26 AG18: 27 P20: 26
The rest of Washtenaw is safe for any D.  Incumbent Jeff Irwin will run here.  Scott Price and Wyckham Seelig are seeking the R nomination.

16. 63R, 37D [Monroe, Lenawee, Hillsdale] Safe R
P16: 60 G18: 55 AG18: 57 P20: 62
This seat is open, with old 17 incumbent Dale Zorn termed out.  State rep (16-22) Joe Bellino and state rep (20-P) TC Clements are seeking the R nomination.  Katybeth Davis will be the D nominee.

17. 65R, 35D [S Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph, Branch, E Calhoun] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 58 AG18: 60 P20: 63
This succeeds old 21, losing north Berrien.  The result is an absurd district takes a swath of rural territory from Berrien to Jackson counties.  Kim LaSata represents about 2/3 of this seat, but had to move into it.  Army veteran Jonathan Lindsey was endorsed by Trump when he planned to seek the seat vacated by term-limited senate majority leader Mike Shirkey, but ended up in this district.  He has outraised LaSata with help from many out-of-state donors.  The D nominee will be Scott Starr.

18. 62R, 38D [W Calhoun, Barry, SE Kent, E Allegan] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 55 AG18: 58 P20: 60
This succeeds old 19, and goes from three whole counties to one whole county and parts of five others.  Incumbent John Bizon will retire after pleading guilty to misdemeanor assault and battery.  State rep (16-22) Thomas Albert of Lowell is seeking the R nomination, along with biomedical electronics technician Ryan Mancinelli.  The D nominee will be Kai Degraaf.

19. 42R, 58D [Kalamazoo, Antwerp Twp] Safe D
P16: 41 G18: 39 AG18: 42 P20: 40
This is mostly the same as old 20, plus or minus a couple townships.  Incumbent Sean McCann was the first D to win this seat in 2018, after many years of Rs winning by decreasing margins.  The R candidate is Tamara Mitchell.

20. 59R, 41D [N Berrien, Van Buren, W Allegan, SW Kent] Safe R
P16: 57 G18: 55 AG18: 57 P20: 57
This is a messier successor to old 26, stretching from Benton Harbor to the Grand Rapids suburbs.  Aric Nesbitt, who is the presumptive next R senate leader, lived in 19, but moved here, where the large majority of his constituents live.  Kim LaSata lived here, but moved to 17 to avoid a primary.  Kaleb Hudson and Austin Kreutz are also seeking the R nomination.  Kim Gane will be the D nominee.

21. 43R, 57D [W Ingham, Eaton] Safe D
P16: 41 G18: 37 AG18: 40 P20: 41
In another outrageous pro-D gerrymander, Lansing is split, and East Lansing is put a into separate district.  This district takes away the Eaton County base of Tom Barrett (R), who is running for Congress instead.  Curtis Hertel Jr. is term limited.  State rep Sarah Anthony will be the D nominee.  Nkenge Robertson will be the R nominee.
22. 63R, 37D [Livingston, S. Genessee] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 61
Livingston County will no longer share a district with Washtenaw, to the delight of folks on both sides of the county line.  Incumbent conservative Lana Theis is seeking reelection.  She is being challenged by Mike Detmer, who has Trump's endorsement, due to her refusal to endorse election fraud conspiracy theories.  Jordan Genso is the D candidate.

23. 59R, 41D [W Oakland] Safe R
P16: 58 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 56
Jim Runestad gets a significantly safer district due to the removal of Novi and West Bloomfield.  Una Hepburn and Michael Wiese are seeking the D nomination.

24. 66R, 34D [N Oakland, NW Macomb] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 63
This packs much of the most R territory in Oakland and Macomb.  Incumbent Ruth Johnson only represents a small part of this district, but is well known from being SOS (10-18) and Oakland County Clerk.  Doug Wozniak, who won a 2021 special election for a Macomb-based seat, lives here.  Wozniak deferred to Johnson after redistricting put them in the same district, and will run for state house against the man who was elected to succeed him.  Theresa Fougnie will be the D nominee.

25. 68R, 32D [St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 66
Dan Lauwers keeps almost all his existing district, and shouldn't have any trouble.  The D nominee will be Bert Van Dyke.

26. 62R, 38D [Lapeer, NE Genessee, S Saginaw, W Tuscola] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 52 AG18: 56 P20: 61
Incumbent Kevin Daley is seeking reelection.  Sherry Marden is also seeking the R nomination.  Charles Stadler will be the D nominee.

27. 38R, 62D [central Genessee] Safe D
P16: 36 G18: 32 AG18: 35 P20: 37
This 29% black seat is open, since D leader Jim Ananich is termed out.  State rep (18-P) John D. Cherry is likely the favorite.  He is the son of the state senator and LG of the same name.  David Davenport, Monica Galloway, and Bill Swanson are also seeking the D nomination.  Aaron Gardner and Christina Hickson are seeking the R nomination.

28. 45R, 55D [East Lansing, Clinton, Schiawassee] Lean D
P16: 43.2 G18: 38.2 AG18: 43.9 P20: 43.6
This is the other half of the gerrymander that split East Lansing from Lansing.  There is a chance that this could be competitive due to turnout dropoff amongst MSU students.  Former state rep (12-18) Sam Singh is seeking the D nomination, along with Sais Muhammad Salman.  Madhu Anderson and Daylen Howard are seeking the R nomination.

29. 38R, 62D [S Grand Rapids, Wyoming, Kentwood] Safe D
P16: 37 G18: 37 AG18: 39 P20: 35
This district was held by an R until 2018, but Grand Rapids has zoomed left under Trump.  Incumbent Winnie Brinks will run here.  State rep (16-22) Tommy Brann, who lost a 2021 special election for a suburban state senate seat, is seeking the R nomination along with Andrew Kroll.  Brann is a decent candidate in case of a total bloodbath for Ds in November.
30. 51R, 49D [N Grand Rapids, central Kent, NE Ottawa] Lean R
P16: 50.1 G18: 47.4 AG18: 50.6 P20: 47.1
Another gerrymander is splitting Grand Rapids between 29 and 30 to create a competitive district here.  Fortunately, the rural areas of Kent and Ottawa are still solidly R downballot, through the presidential numbers got much worse under Trump.  Mark Huizenga was elected to succeed Peter MacGregor in a 2021 special election, and is seeking reelection here.  Keith Hinkle is also seeking the R nomination.  State rep (16-22) David LaGrand is running here, after losing a previous state senate race in 2010.

31. 62R, 38D [Ottawa, Holland area] Safe R
P16: 61 G18: 60 AG18: 63 P20: 59
Incumbent Roger Victory should have another easy victory here.  Brian VanDussen is also seeking the R nomination.  Kim Nagy will be the D nominee.

32. 53R, 47D [Muskegon, Lake Michigan coast] Lean R
P16: 49.6 G18: 46.4 AG18: 49.2 P20: 51.7
This seat loses heavily R Newaygo County and adds more competitive areas along the lakeshore in a mild pro-D gerrymander.  Jon Bumstead represents about 2/3 of this seat, but had to move in from Newaygo County.  Senator Curt VanderWall lives in Mason County, but decided to run for state house rather than challenge Bumstead or move to a different district.  Charles Ritchard is also seeking the R nomination.  State rep (16-22) Terry Sabo will be the D nominee.

33. 68R, 32D [N Kent, Ionia, Montcalm, Newaygo, Lake] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 66
Incumbent Rick Outman will run for reelection here, though the majority of his current constituents are in 34.  Jon Bumstead also lived here, but moved to 33.  Mark Bignell will be the D nominee.

34. 64R, 36D [central Lower Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 60 G18: 55 AG18: 58 P20: 63
This district is open, though the majority of it is currently represented by Rick Outman.  State rep (16-22) Roger Hauck will run here.  Lisa Sowers is also seeking the R nomination.  Christine Gerace will be the D nominee.

35. 49R, 51D [Saginaw, Bay, Midland] Tossup
P16: 47.1 G18: 44.2 AG18: 46.4 P20: 47.6
This is another pro-D gerrymander, combining three mid-Michigan seats to make about the best district possible for Ds.  While all cities, Saginaw (blacks), Bay City (white working class), and Midland (upscale Rs) have little in common demographically.  A decade ago, this would have been safe D, but Bay County has moved right. Turnout in Saginaw and candidate quality have long been a problem for Ds.  Incredibly, despite D dominance of Saginaw County, Rs have won its state senate district for the last eight elections.  
With Jim Stamas and Ken Horn term-limited, there is no incumbent here.  Conservative state rep (18-P) Annette Glenn of Midland is running.  She succeeded her husband, state rep Gary Glenn (14-18), who lost a primary for a senate district in 2018.  Another candidate is conservative former state rep (12-18) Tim Kelly, though most of his old seat is in district 26.  Doctor Martin Blank and businessman Christian Velasquez are also seeking the R nomination, and have raised over $100000 each.  Bay City Commissioner Kristen McDonald Rivet will be the D nominee.  She is the wife of state rep (98-04) and Bay County Drain Commissioner (04-20) Joe Rivet.

36. 68R, 32D [NE Lower Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 59 AG18: 63 P20: 67
This seat has no incumbent.  Curt VanderWall could have moved here, but chose to run for state house instead.  Conservative state rep. (16-22) Michele Hoitenga will be the R nominee.  Former state rep (04-10) Joel Sheltrown will be the D nominee.  He was a strong overperformer and would have been a tough candidate a decade ago, but this area has moved right and he is now 75.

37. 58R, 42D [NW Lower Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 56 G18: 52 AG18: 55 P20: 55
This seat only slightly shifts from its current version.  With Wayne Schmidt term-limited, the seat is open. State rep John Damoose (20-P) of Emmet County and former state rep Triston Cole (14-20) of Antrim County are the leading candidates here.  Businessman William Hindle and Mackinaw City trustee George Ranville and also seeking the R nomination.  "Trucker" Randy Bishop, Barbara Conley, and Jim Schmidt are seeking the D nomination.

38. 59R, 41D [Upper Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 56 G18: 51 AG18: 53 P20: 57
This seat adds more area, and now has almost all of the Upper Peninsula.  It was held by Ds for decades until 2010.  R state rep Ed McBroom (10-16) of Dickinson County won it in 2018.  McBroom has angered Trump due to his refusal to endorse election fraud conspiracy theories.  He is being challenged for the R nomination by Matthew Furyk and Kayla Wikstrom.  The D nominee will be John Bramsee.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe D: 13 (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 19, 21, 27, 29)
Lean D: 4 (4, 13, 14, 28)
Tossup: 2 (11, 35)
Lean R: 4 (9, 12, 30, 32)
Safe R: 15 (16, 17, 18, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 31, 33, 34, 36, 37, 38)

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