Sunday, April 24, 2022

2022 Michigan State Senate Races

Last updated October 15, 2022.

All 38 seats in the Michigan Senate are up for election in 2022.  Republicans currently have a 22-16 majority, and have controlled the senate since 1983.  The Michigan state senate is up only in midterms, which usually favor Republicans more than presidential years.  However, Republicans lost five seats in the bad year of 2018.

Michigan has a new state senate map, thanks to the Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew lines that split many counties and split Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, and the Lansing area to benefit Ds.  The city of Detroit was split to reduce the number of black-majority districts from five to zero.  The commission created several competitive districts.

Michigan Redistricting: State Senate Map Approved

Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and MICRC.

Michigan State Senate Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan State Senate Map-MICRC

2022 Candidate List (Michigan Secretary of State)

Three R and one D incumbents had to move.  Seven senators are term-limited.  Two senators are running for congress, two are running for state house, and one just retired.  One was disqualified from the ballot.  There was one incumbent-v-incumbent primary.  There will also be several interesting general election races. 

All but seven current state senators are former state representatives.  Two senators (LaSata, Theis) faced primary challengers endorsed by President Trump.  Consider the districts in detail.

The election data for each district is the R candidates for President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)

1. [SC Detroit, Taylor] Safe D
P16: 27 G18: 24 AG18: 25 P20: 30
This seat is 37% black and 17% Hispanic.  It loses much of downriver and adds a chunk of Detroit.  Erika Geiss lives here and will run for reelection. She defeated former state rep (14-20) Frank Liberati and four other Ds.  Erik Soderquist will be the R nominee.

2. 26R, 74D [Dearborn, Dearborn Heights] Safe D
P16: 26 G18: 23 AG18: 24 P20: 26
This seat is 26% black, and now has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Sylvia Santana represents most of this seat and will run here.  She easily defeated Maurice Sanders for the D nomination.  Harry Sawicki will be the R nominee.

3. 26R, 74D [central Detroit, Warren, Madison Heights] Safe D
P16: 20 G18: 17 AG18: 18 P20: 21
This seat is 44% black.  Stephanie Chang will run for reelection here.  Adam Hollier also lives here, but ran for Congress instead.  She defeated Toinu Reeves for the D nomination.

4. 48R, 52D [S Wayne] Lean D
P16: 46.5 G18: 39.9 AG18: 41.8 P20: 47.1
This area has moved toward Trump, but votes more D downballot.  Erika Geiss represents much of this seat, but lives in Taylor, and will run in district 1.  Ds have a strong candidate in state rep Darrin Camilleri (16-22) who flipped a seat that voted for Trump in 2016.  Houston James won the R nomination over James Chapman, Michael Frazier, and Beth Socia.

5. 41R, 59D [Canton, Westland] Safe D
P16: 40 G18: 36 AG18: 38 P20: 39
Compared to old 7, this seat lost Plymouth/Northville and added Westland and Inkster.  This area has moved left, and Dayna Polehanki flipped it D in 2018.  She defeated Velma Jean Overman in the primary.  Emily Bauman won the R nomination over Jody Rice-White and Leonard Scott Jr.

6. 31R, 69D [Livonia, Redford, Farmington Hills] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 30 P20: 30
This seat is 41% black.  Incumbent Betty Jean Alexander is a political lightweight who beat white incumbent David Knezek in a huge primary upset in 2018.  She was disqualified from the ballot due to campaign finance violations.  The D primary was won by 30-year-old state rep (20-P) Mary Cavanagh, who recently pled to 'superdrunk' driving.  The other D candidates were former state rep (08-14) and Farmington Hills Mayor Vicki Barnett, who lost a close race for state senate in 2014, and Darryl Brown.  The R nominee is Ken Crider.
7. 26R, 74D [Southfield, Pontiac, Bloomfield Hills] Safe D
P16: 25 G18: 25 AG18: 26 P20: 25
The most black district (47% black) on the map is mostly in Oakland.  White incumbent Jeremy Moss will run for reelection.  Rosemary Bayer also lived here, but moved to run in district 13.  Ryan Foster also sought the D nomination.  The R nominee is Corinne Khederian.

8. 22R, 78D [N Detroit, Royal Oak] Safe D
P16: 22 G18: 21 AG18: 22 P20: 22
This seat is 42% black.  White incumbent Mallory McMorrow of Royal Oak defeated black incumbent Marshall Bullock of Detroit.  McMorrow raised a huge sum due to a viral video attacking an R senator.  The R candidate is Brandon Simpson.

9. 51R, 49D [Troy, Rochester Hills, Sterling Heights] Lean R
P16: 51 G18: 47.3 AG18: 50 P20: 49.2
This 17% Asian seat is an improvement on old district 13.  Mallory McMorrow represents about 2/3 of this seat, but will run in district 8.  State rep. (14-20) Michael Webber (R) of Rochester Hills will face state rep (18-P) Padma Kuppa (D) of Troy.

10. 34R, 66D [E Detroit, Warren, Sterling Heights] Safe D
P16: 33 G18: 30 AG18: 31 P20: 34
This seat is 42% black.  White incumbent Paul Wojno of Warren will run here.  Paul Smith, who lost a 2020 state house seat, won the R nomination over Joe Hunt.

11. 50R, 50D [Macomb Twp, Clinton Twp, Roseville] Tossup
P16: 48.6 G18: 42.2 AG18: 44.2 P20: 48.2
This slice of Macomb has moved R, but votes more D downballot.  Incumbent Michael MacDonald (R) will run here.  If he wins, he will be the first R in many decades to represent part of Detroit.  Conspiracy theorist Melissa Carone, who was disqualified from a state house run for campaign finance violations, was also disqualified for this seat.  Macomb County Commissioner Veronica Klinefelt defeated Monique Owens for the D nomination.

12. 53R, 47D [Lake St. Clair shoreline] Lean R
P16: 52.2 G18: 46.4 AG18: 48.9 P20: 51.5
This district hugging the Lake St. Clair shoreline is actually a good draw for Rs.  Unlike the congressional and state house maps, the Grosse Pointes are not drowned in a Detroit district.  State rep. (16-22) Pam Hornberger (R) of Chesterfield Township, who narrowly lost a state senate special primary in 2021, won the R nomination over Michael Williams.  State rep (16-22) Kevin Hertel (D) of St. Clair Shores is the D nominee.

13. 44R, 56D [West Bloomfield, Novi, Northville, Plymouth] Lean D
P16: 43.8 G18: 41.2 AG18: 43.2 P20: 42.2
Ten years ago, this would have been an R district, but these upscale suburban areas moved left under Trump.  Incumbent Rosemary Bayer (D) represents only tiny Keego Harbor (pop. 2970) and Sylvan Lake (pop. 1720), where she moved to avoid a primary with Jeremy Moss in district 8.  Northville Township Treasurer Jason Rhines won the R nomination over Brian Williams.

14. 45R, 55D [N Washtenaw, Jackson] Lean D
P16: 43.8 G18: 40.4 AG18: 42.4 P20: 43.9
In one of the outrageous pro-D gerrymanders on the map, Ann Arbor is split in half in an attempt to drown most of Jackson County in a D district.  Possible student turnout dropoff and the possibility of an Ann Arbor progressive being nominated are only barely keeping this seat competitive.  Washtenaw County Commissioner Sue Shink defeated former Jackson City Council Member Kelsey Wood and activist Val Cochran Toops for the D nomination.  Grass Lake Township Trustee Tim Golding will be the R nominee.
15. 27R, 73D [S Washtenaw] Safe D
P16: 27 G18: 26 AG18: 27 P20: 26
The rest of Washtenaw is safe for any D.  Incumbent Jeff Irwin is running here.  Scott Price won the R nomination over Wyckham Seelig.

16. 63R, 37D [Monroe, Lenawee, Hillsdale] Safe R
P16: 60 G18: 55 AG18: 57 P20: 62
This seat is open, with old 17 incumbent Dale Zorn termed out.  State rep (16-22) Joe Bellino won the R nomination 52-47 over state rep (20-22) TC Clements.  Katybeth Davis is the D nominee.

17. 65R, 35D [S Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph, Branch, E Calhoun] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 58 AG18: 60 P20: 63
This succeeds old 21, losing north Berrien.  The result is an absurd district takes a swath of rural territory from Berrien to Jackson counties.  Kim LaSata represents about 2/3 of this seat, but had to move into it.  Army veteran Jonathan Lindsey was endorsed by Trump when he planned to seek the seat vacated by term-limited senate majority leader Mike Shirkey, but ended up in this district.  He  outraised LaSata with help from many out-of-state donors and won the R primary 61-39.  The D nominee is Scott Starr.

18. 62R, 38D [W Calhoun, Barry, SE Kent, E Allegan] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 55 AG18: 58 P20: 60
This succeeds old 19, and goes from three whole counties to one whole county and parts of five others.  Incumbent John Bizon will retire after pleading guilty to misdemeanor assault and battery.  State rep (16-22) Thomas Albert of Lowell won the R nomination over biomedical electronics technician Ryan Mancinelli.  The D nominee is Kai Degraaf.

19. 42R, 58D [Kalamazoo, Antwerp Twp] Safe D
P16: 41 G18: 39 AG18: 42 P20: 40
This is mostly the same as old 20, plus or minus a couple townships.  Incumbent Sean McCann was the first D to win this seat in 2018, after many years of Rs winning by decreasing margins.  The R candidate is Tamara Mitchell.

20. 59R, 41D [N Berrien, Van Buren, W Allegan, SW Kent] Safe R
P16: 57 G18: 55 AG18: 57 P20: 57
This is a messier successor to old 26, stretching from Benton Harbor to the Grand Rapids suburbs.  Aric Nesbitt, who is the presumptive next R senate leader, lived in 19, but moved here, where the large majority of his constituents live.  Kim LaSata lived here, but moved to 17 to avoid a primary.  Nesbitt defeated Kaleb Hudson and Austin Kreutz for the R nomination.  Kim Gane is the D nominee.

21. 43R, 57D [W Ingham, Eaton] Safe D
P16: 41 G18: 37 AG18: 40 P20: 41
In another outrageous pro-D gerrymander, Lansing is split, and East Lansing is put a into separate district.  This district takes away the Eaton County base of Tom Barrett (R), who is running for Congress instead.  Curtis Hertel Jr. is term limited.  State rep Sarah Anthony is the D nominee.  Nkenge Robertson is the R nominee.
22. 63R, 37D [Livingston, S. Genessee] Safe R
P16: 62 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 61
Livingston County will no longer share a district with Washtenaw, to the delight of folks on both sides of the county line.  Incumbent conservative Lana Theis is seeking reelection.  She defeated Mike Detmer 58-42.  He had Trump's endorsement, due to her refusal to endorse election fraud conspiracy theories.  Jordan Genso is the D candidate.

23. 59R, 41D [W Oakland] Safe R
P16: 58 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 56
Jim Runestad gets a significantly safer district due to the removal of Novi and West Bloomfield.  Una Hepburn won the D nomination over Michael Wiese.

24. 66R, 34D [N Oakland, NW Macomb] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 63
This packs much of the most R territory in Oakland and Macomb.  Incumbent Ruth Johnson only represents a small part of this district, but is well known from being SOS (10-18) and Oakland County Clerk.  Doug Wozniak, who won a 2021 special election for a Macomb-based seat, lives here.  Wozniak deferred to Johnson after redistricting put them in the same district, and ran for state house against the man who was elected to succeed him.  Theresa Fougnie is the D nominee.

25. 68R, 32D [St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 66
Dan Lauwers keeps almost all his existing district, and shouldn't have any trouble.  The D nominee is Bert Van Dyke.

26. 62R, 38D [Lapeer, NE Genessee, S Saginaw, W Tuscola] Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 52 AG18: 56 P20: 61
Incumbent Kevin Daley won renomination over Sherry Marden.  Charles Stadler will be the D nominee.

27. 38R, 62D [central Genessee] Safe D
P16: 36 G18: 32 AG18: 35 P20: 37
This 29% black seat is open, since D leader Jim Ananich is termed out.  State rep (18-P) John D. Cherry, the son of the state senator and LG of the same name, easily won the D nomination over David Davenport, Monica Galloway, and Bill Swanson.  Aaron Gardner won the R nomination over Christina Hickson.

28. 45R, 55D [East Lansing, Clinton, Schiawassee] Lean D
P16: 43.2 G18: 38.2 AG18: 43.9 P20: 43.6
This is the other half of the gerrymander that split East Lansing from Lansing.  There is a small chance that this could be competitive due to turnout dropoff amongst MSU students.  Former state rep (12-18) Sam Singh won the D nomination over Sais Muhammad Salman.  Daylen Howard won the R nomination over Madhu Anderson.

29. 38R, 62D [S Grand Rapids, Wyoming, Kentwood] Safe D
P16: 37 G18: 37 AG18: 39 P20: 35
This district was held by an R until 2018, but Grand Rapids has zoomed left under Trump.  Incumbent Winnie Brinks will run here.  State rep (16-22) Tommy Brann, who lost a 2021 special election for a suburban state senate seat, is the R nominee.  Brann is a decent candidate in case of a total bloodbath for Ds in November.
30. 51R, 49D [N Grand Rapids, central Kent, NE Ottawa] Lean R
P16: 50.1 G18: 47.4 AG18: 50.6 P20: 47.1
Another gerrymander is splitting Grand Rapids between 29 and 30 to create a competitive district here.  Fortunately, the rural areas of Kent and Ottawa are still solidly R downballot, through the presidential numbers got much worse under Trump.  Mark Huizenga was elected to succeed Peter MacGregor in a 2021 special election, and is seeking reelection here.  He won the R nomination over Keith Hinkle.  State rep (16-22) David LaGrand is running here, after losing a previous state senate race in 2010.

31. 62R, 38D [Ottawa, Holland area] Safe R
P16: 61 G18: 60 AG18: 63 P20: 59
Incumbent Roger Victory won another easy victory over Brian VanDussen for the R nomination.  Kim Nagy is the D nominee.

32. 53R, 47D [Muskegon, Lake Michigan coast] Lean R
P16: 49.6 G18: 46.4 AG18: 49.2 P20: 51.7
This seat loses heavily R Newaygo County and adds more competitive areas along the lakeshore in a mild pro-D gerrymander.  Jon Bumstead represents about 2/3 of this seat, but had to move in from Newaygo County.  Senator Curt VanderWall lives in Mason County, but decided to run for state house rather than challenge Bumstead or move to a different district.  He defeated Charles Ritchard for the R nomination.  State rep (16-22) Terry Sabo is the D nominee.

33. 68R, 32D [N Kent, Ionia, Montcalm, Newaygo, Lake] Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 66
Incumbent Rick Outman is running for reelection here, though the majority of his current constituents are in district 34.  Jon Bumstead also lived here, but moved to 33.  Mark Bignell is the D nominee.

34. 64R, 36D [central Lower Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 60 G18: 55 AG18: 58 P20: 63
This district is open, though the majority of it is currently represented by Rick Outman.  State rep (16-22) Roger Hauck easily won the R nomination over Lisa Sowers.  Christine Gerace is the D nominee.

35. 49R, 51D [Saginaw, Bay, Midland] Tossup
P16: 47.1 G18: 44.2 AG18: 46.4 P20: 47.6
This is another pro-D gerrymander, combining three mid-Michigan seats to make about the best district possible for Ds.  While all cities, Saginaw (blacks), Bay City (white working class), and Midland (upscale Rs) have little in common demographically.  A decade ago, this would have been safe D, but Bay County has moved right. Turnout in Saginaw and candidate quality have long been a problem for Ds.  Incredibly, despite D dominance of Saginaw County, Rs have won its state senate district for the last eight elections.  
With Jim Stamas and Ken Horn term-limited, there is no incumbent here.  Conservative state rep (18-P) Annette Glenn of Midland won the R nomination with 41%.  She succeeded her husband, state rep Gary Glenn (14-18), who lost a primary for a senate district in 2018.  She defeated former state rep (12-18) Tim Kelly, Doctor Martin Blank, and businessman Christian Velasquez, who each raised over $100000.  Bay City Commissioner Kristen McDonald Rivet is the D nominee.  She is the wife of state rep (98-04) and Bay County Drain Commissioner (04-20) Joe Rivet.

36. 68R, 32D [NE Lower Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 65 G18: 59 AG18: 63 P20: 67
This seat has no incumbent.  Curt VanderWall could have moved here, but chose to run for state house instead.  Conservative state rep. (16-22) Michele Hoitenga won the R nomination uncontested.  Former state rep (04-10) Joel Sheltrown is the D nominee.  He was a strong overperformer and would have been a tough candidate a decade ago, but this area has moved right and he is now 75.

37. 58R, 42D [NW Lower Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 56 G18: 52 AG18: 55 P20: 55
This seat only slightly shifts from its current version.  With Wayne Schmidt term-limited, the seat is open. State rep John Damoose (20-P) of Emmet County won the R nomination with 41%.  He defeated former state rep Triston Cole (14-20) of Antrim County, businessman William Hindle, and Mackinaw City trustee George Ranville.  Barbara Conley easily won the D nomination over "Trucker" Randy Bishop and Jim Schmidt.

38. 59R, 41D [Upper Peninsula] Safe R
P16: 56 G18: 51 AG18: 53 P20: 57
This seat adds more area, and now has almost all of the Upper Peninsula.  It was held by Ds for decades until 2010.  R state rep Ed McBroom (10-16) of Dickinson County won it in 2018.  McBroom angered Trump due to his refusal to endorse election fraud conspiracy theories.  He easily won the R nomination with 77% over Matthew Furyk and Kayla Wikstrom.  The D nominee will be John Bramsee.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe D: 13 (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 19, 21, 27, 29)
Lean D: 4 (4, 13, 14, 28)
Tossup: 2 (11, 35)
Lean R: 4 (9, 12, 30, 32)
Safe R: 15 (16, 17, 18, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 31, 33, 34, 36, 37, 38)

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