Wednesday, April 20, 2022

2022 Michigan Congressional Races

This post was last updated on November 6, 2022.

Michigan has a new congressional district map, thanks to the Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  Michigan lost one seat in redistricting, and is left with 13.  The commission drew some poor lines, and skewed several districts (3 and 8) to the left in the name of partisan fairness, but also created several districts (7 and 10) that are winnable for each side.

Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Approved

The map above is from the page at RRH Elections linked below, which also has individual district maps.

Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and 538.

Michigan Congressional Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan Congressional Map-538

Several incumbents had to move.  There have been two retirements, and there was one incumbent-v-incumbent primary and two open seats.  There will also be several interesting general election races.  Consider the districts in detail.

The election data for each district is the R candidates for President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)

District 1  (Upper Peninsula, northern Lower Peninsula) Safe R
P16: 59 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 59
This district doesn't change much, it just adds a few counties for population.  It becomes about 1% more R.  Retired general Jack Bergman was first elected in 2016. He pledged to serve only three terms, but now plans to break that pledge.  When he does retire, a troll (below the bridge) candidate may finally win the seat.  Bob Lorinser is the D nominee.

District 2.  (West Michigan coast, central MI) Safe R
P16: 61 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 63
This combines northern parts of old 2 represented by Bill Huizenga and a lot of rural territory from old 4 represented by John Moolenaar.  It is even safer, moving about 2% more R.  Republican state senator John Moolenaar, first elected in 2014, will run here, though he lives in Midland (in new 8).  He won the R primary 65-35 over Trump fan and frequent candidate Tom Norton, who originally intended to run against Peter Meijer.  Jerry Hilliard is the D nominee.

District 3 (Grand Rapids, north Ottawa, Muskegon) Lean D
P16: 46.6 G18: 44.9 AG18: 47.8 P20: 44.8
Old MI-2 was split into three pieces.  23% went to new 2, 51% went to new 3, and 26% went to new 4.  The core of old 3 in Kent County was merged with half of old 2.  New 3 drops heavily R rural Kent, Barry, Ionia, and Calhoun.  It adds Kentwood (D), Wyoming (lean R), N Ottawa (R), and the city of Muskegon (D), moving about 6% left.  This is a pro-D gerrymander in the name of "partisan fairness".
Retail heir and veteran Peter Meijer won the 2020 R primary with 50%, succeeding R-turned-Libertarian Justin Amash.  Meijer voted for impeachment, leading Trump to endorse former HUS official John Gibbs against him.  Gibbs won the primary 52-48, but may be a weak general election candidate due to some controversial comments and limited ties to the district.
The D nominee is attorney Hillary Scholten, who lost by 6% in 2020.

District 4 (Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Holland) Safe R
P16: 51.6 G18: 49.4 AG18: 52.3 P20: 51
Old MI-6 was split into two pieces.  69% went to new 4, and 31% went to new 5.  The southern tier of St. Joseph, Cass, and southern Berrien moves to new 5.  New 4 has 63% from old 6, 25% from old 2 (south Ottawa), and 10% from old 3 (the Battle Creek area).  Old 6 is represented by longtime moderate R Fred Upton.  The south Ottawa base of Bill Huizenga was added, and he quickly announced that he would run here.
President Trump had previously endorsed state rep. Steve Carra to run against Upton due to his vote for impeachment.  Redistricting took Carra out of the new district.  Upton didn't immediately announce his plans, but made some moves toward running again, including running $200,000 in ads.  President Trump then offered a "complete and total" endorsement of Huizenga.  While not explicitly un-endorsing Carra, this served to push him out of the race, and he chose to run for reelection.  Upton apparently realized that he wouldn't win a one-on-one race and declined to seek reelection, leaving Huizenga unopposed.  The D nominee will be veteran Joseph Alfonso.

District 5 (South-central Michigan, lower tier) Safe R
P16: 60 G18: 55 AG18: 58 P20: 61
This is mostly old 7, dropping Eaton and Washtenaw, and adds heavily R areas of rural Calhoun, St. Joseph, Cass, and S Berrien.  It moves about 4.5% right.  Republican Tim Walberg has become increasingly entrenched since his comeback in 2010, and he will be safe here.  He won the primary 67-33 over Sherry O'Donnell.  Bart Goldberg will be the D nominee.

District 6 (Washtenaw, plus south and west Wayne) Safe D
P16: 37 G18: 35 AG18: 36 P20: 36
This succeeds old 12, adding W Washtenaw and dropping Dearborn and part of Downriver.  It moves 2% more R.  Fortunately, the commission did not extend this district into R territory south or west of it.  In 2014, democrat Debbie Dingell easily replaced her husband John Dingell in Congress after his 58 years (!) in office.  The city of Dearborn has been represented by a member of the Dingell family since 1964, but Debbie Dingell will move here, since she represents the bulk of this territory.  Whittney Williams won the R primary 54-46 over Hima Kolanagireddy.

District 7 (Ingham, Livingston, Eaton, Clinton, Schiawassee) Tossup
P16: 48.9 G18: 44.2 AG18: 48 P20: 48.7
This is a highly competitive district containing Lansing and surrounding counties.  It contains the core of old 8 (Ingham and Livingston), which was drawn to lean R.  It adds lean R areas from old 4 and 7, while losing R (but D-trending) areas in Oakland.  Former DOD official Elissa Slotkin (D) defeated Mike Bishop in 2018. She lived in Oakland but moved here.  The R candidate is conservative state senator (18-22) Tom Barrett, whose district was carved up.

District 8 (Genesee, Saginaw, Bay, Midland) Tossup
P16: 46.9 G18: 42.5 AG18: 45.8 P20: 48.2
This succeeds old 5, adding the rest of Saginaw County and the city of Midland.  While the district moves about 1% right, this is basically the best configuration Ds short of adding Lansing to the district.  This is another example of gerrymandering by the commission.  Former Genesee Treasurer Dan Kildee (D) succeeded his uncle Dale Kildee in 2012.  Television anchor and Trump USCIS official Paul Junge, who lost old 8 to Elissa Slotkin by 4% in 2020, won the R primary with 54% over Matthew Seely and Candice Miller (not the former congresswoman).

District 9 (The Thumb, N Oakland, N Macomb) Safe R
P16: 64 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 64
This succeeds old 10, losing a bit of central Macomb and adding some of north Oakland.  The partisanship hasn't changed.  Self-funding businesswoman Lisa McClain won the 2020 R primary with 42%, succeeding Paul Mitchell.  Brian Jaye will be the D nominee.

District 10 (S Macomb, Rochester Hills) Lean R
P16: 50.4 G18: 44.4 AG18: 46.6 P20: 49.8
This moves 7% right compared to old 9.  It adds lean R areas of central Macomb and Rochester Hills, while losing D areas of Oakland.  Andy Levin (D) represents much of this district but ran in new 11.  John James, the R US Senate nominee in 2018 and 2020 attracted widespread support, including a Trump endorsement, and easily won the R nomination.
The D nominee is former prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga, who won the nomination with 48% over former state rep Henry Yanez (12-18), Huwaida Arraf, Rhonda Powell, and Angela Rogensues.

District 11 (Central Oakland) Safe D
P16: 41 G18: 38 AG18: 39 P20: 39
This has much of old 11, along with parts of old 9 and 14.  It moved 8.5% left of old 11.  Andy Levin succeeded his father Sander Levin in old 9 in 2018.  Businesswoman Haley Stevens (D) succeeded David Trott (R) in old 11, which swung heavily against Trump.  Levin and Stevens represent roughly equal portions of the D base.  Stevens won the D primary with 59% against the marginally more leftist Levin.  Mark Ambrose won the R nomination over Matthew DenOtter.

District 12 (W Detroit, Southfield, Livonia, Dearborn, Westland) Safe D
P16: 25 G18: 22 AG18: 24 P20: 25
The commission decided to reduce MI from two black-majority districts to none, with both new 12 and 13 now about 46% black.  New 12 combines parts of old 13 and 14.  Brenda Lawrence, who has represented old 12 since 2014, will retire.  After Lawrence announced her retirement, Rep. Rashida Tlaib announced that she would run here.  
Tlaib won old 13 when it was open seat in 2018 due to a split in the black vote.  Tlaib is a Muslim member of "the squad" who has made national news due to her anti-Semitic remarks and attacks on President Trump.  While Tlaib lives in the other Detroit-based district, this district has a larger middle eastern population.  Tlaib won the D primary with 64% to 20% for Detroit Clerk Janice Winfrey, and less for former state rep Shanelle Jackson (06-12) and Lathrup Village Mayor Kelly Garrett.  Steven Elliott will be the R nominee.

District 13 (E Detroit, Downriver, Romulus) Safe D
P16: 23 G18: 21 AG18: 22 P20: 25
New 13 combines parts of old 13 and 14.  It was vacated by Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who will run in new 12.  Her announcement followed a primary challenge by state rep (20-22) Shri Thanedar, a wealthy businessman who represents a district in north Detroit.  After Tlaib left, a total of eleven candidates ran.  Thanedar won with 28% to 24% for state senator Adam Hollier.  The other candidates were John Conyers III (son of the late congressman), Detroit school board member and former state rep (14-20) Sherry Gay-Dagnogo, former Detroit city councilmember Sharon McPhail, nonprofit CEO Portia Roberson, political consultant Sam Riddle, Michael Griffie, Angela McIntosh, Lorrie Rutledge, and Adrian Tonan.  Martell Blivings is the R nominee.

No comments: