Fred Upton Finally Retires

Congressman Fred Upton announced today that he would retire from Congress.  He has been in Congress since 1986.  That's 18 terms, or 36 years.  He is the 6th most senior member of the house of representatives.

'This is it for me': Upton plans to retire from U.S. House, won't face Huizenga in primary

[David] Stockman was succeeded in Congress by staunch conservative Mark Siljander. In 1986, Upton ran in the primary against Siljander. Upton received campaign assistance from ultra-liberal democrat Congressman Howard Wolpe of the neighboring 3rd district. President Reagan endorsed Siljander, but Upton nonetheless won the primary 55-45 by distorting a mailing from Siljander to Christians in the district. 

In 1992, redistricting carved up Wolpe's district, leaving Upton to represent the now-6th district, which has largely held its present form of Kalamazoo, St. Jospeh, Cass, Berrien, Van Buren, and part of Allegan Counties since then. Following the 1994 election, Upton co-founded the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group of Republicans in Congress dedicated to moving the party to the left.

Upton racked up many liberal votes over his time in Congress.  He was not consistently pro-life, and did not receive the Right to Life endorsement, except for a few terms when the led the Energy and Commerce Committee.  He was anti-gun before 2002, voted pro-gun for a while, but has recently supported some gun control.  He has consistently voted for big spending and deficits, and supported Medicare Part D and the Wall Street bailout.  He often supported government regulations like the infamous light bulb ban.  Upton often endorsed or flirted with supporting amnesty.  Contrary to some claims, Upton did not get more conservative over the years.

Fred Upton's Ten Worst Votes

About a third of the Republicans district never liked for Upton.  He faced several conservative primary challengers over the years.

1990: defeated state senator Ed Fredericks 63-37

2002: defeated state senator Dale Shugars 66-32

2010: defeated state rep Jack Hoogendyk 57-43

2012: defeated Jack Hoogendyk 67-33

2014: defeated Jim Bussler 71-29

2020: defeated Elena Oelke 62-38

I wrote an in-depth analysis of the 2012 primary campaign, including history, advertisements, debates, and outside endorsements.

Fred Upton's Smear Campaign

Ultimately, two unforeseen factors led to Upton's retirement--Donald Trump and the Michigan redistricting commission.  Upton obviously never cared for Trump, but he managed to avoid open conflict with him until the end of Trump's term.  Trump's false claims of election fraud led the January 6 riot, which led to his second impeachment.  Upton was one of ten house Rs to vote for that impeachment.

This led many establishment Rs to distance themselves from Upton.  The GOP 6th District Committee criticized Upton's vote.  Based on this vote, I predicted that Upton would retire in 2022.

President Trump wanted retribution against those Rs who voted for impeachment or otherwise irked him.  Several candidates announced challenges against Upton.  Trump eventually endorsed State rep. Steve Carra, a solid conservative who was elected to represent St. Joseph and Cass Counties in 2022.

The second unforeseen factor was the Michigan Independent Redistricting Commission, which was approved by the voters in a referendum.  In the previous two cycles, redistricting was controlled by Rs in the legislature, who could be counted on to protect R incumbents in congress, including Upton.  Now it would be unknown what the map would look like until fairly late.

Upton seemed to be in a fairly good position, as he lived in a corner of the state.  A logical map would have just added Barry County or part of Calhoun County to the district to get the necessary population.  But few decisions the commission made were logical.  Eventually, the commission removed St. Joseph, Cass, and southern Berrien counties, and added southern Ottawa county and the Battle Creek area of Calhoun county, creating the new MI-4.

Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Approved

This upended the R primary in two ways.  Carra no longer lived in the new MI-4, and none of district was contained in it.  This made an uphill primary challenge that much harder.  The old MI-2 was essentially dismantled, and its incumbent, Bill Huizenga, now lives in and represents about 25% of the new MI-4.  Huizenga quickly announced that he would run for new MI-4.

Upton didn't announce his plans, but made some moves toward running again, including running $200,000 in ads.  A three-way race was difficult to predict, and could have been won by any of Upton, Huizenga, or Carra.  President Trump apparently decided that he wanted to defeat Upton more than he wanted to elect the most conservative candidate.  He offered a "complete and total" endorsement of Huizenga.  While not explicitly un-endorsing Carra, this served to push him out of the race, and he chose to run for reelection.  That left Upton in a race against a mainstream incumbent who could raise money and compete for endorsements on equal terms.  Upton apparently realized that he wouldn't win (perhaps after some private polling) and declined to seek reelection.

Huizenga is now the clear favorite to be the next congressman from southwest Michigan, but there is still time for other candidates to run.