Sunday, July 31, 2016

Primary Recommendations

There are a bunch of contested primary elections on Tuesday.  It can be hard to find good information about these races.  What follows is this blog's judgement about who is the best conservative for each position.  Recommendations are in bold.

Congress:
District 1:  State senator Tom Casperson and former senator Jason Allen are attacking each other for voting to raise taxes, and both are correct.  General Jack Bergman is a solid conservative in the race, with a particularly good position on immigration.

District 10:  This one is tougher.  Businessman David VanAssche supports amnesty. State rep Anthony Forlini voted for Proposal 1, Medicaid expansion, and against Right to Work. Former state senator Alan Sanborn voted conservative in the legislature, but has raised almost nothing in this race. Senator Phil Pavlov voted right on Medicaid expansion, Proposal 1, and the Amazon tax, but wrong on the Hollywood subsidies. He also avoided discussion of Common Core for years before finally coming out against it. Businessman Paul Mitchell hasn't held office and his positions aren't clear on everything, but he earned a lot of goodwill for funding the opposition to Proposal 1.

Michigan State House:
20. Pastor Jeff Noble is endorsed by Pat Colbeck.
23. Trenton Councilman Bob Howey is endorsed by Right to Life and is running the strongest campaign is this vulnerable seat.
24. Macomb County Commissioner Steve Marino is endorsed by Right to Life and is running the most credible campaign.
30. no clear choice
32. no clear choice
33. Colleen Carl, daughter of the late senator Doug Carl, comes from a conservative family.
46. Businessman John Reilly nearly beat Bradford Jacobsen two years ago, and is back this year.  He is endorsed by Tom McMillin.
57. Bronna Kahle is endorsed by Michigan Right to Life and is running the most credible campaign in this vulnerable district.
64. County commissioner Julie Alexander seems to be a decent conservative.
66. County commissioner Beth Griffin, a Tea Party member, is endorsed by Michigan Right to Life.
70. James Lower is endorsed by the NRA.
72. no clear choice
77. Restaurant owner Tommy Brann is fairly conservative.
79. no clear choice
80. Conservative activist Abigail Nobel is challenging incumbent Mary Whiteford.
83. Conservative activist Shane Hernandez, an active Tea Party and GOP leader, is running.
85. Owosso Mayor Ben Frederick seems to be a good conservative.
86. Lawyer Katherine Henry is endorsed by Justin Amash and Pat Colbeck.
89. no clear choice
97. no clear choice
99. Township Trustee Roger Hauck is endorsed by the NRA.
100. Accountant/businessman Scott VanSingel is endorsed by Gary Glenn and John Bumstead.
101. County commissioner Curt VanderWall is endorsed by the NRA and is running the most credible campaign in this vulnerable district.
102. no clear choice
103. Daire Rendon is a clear choice over Vijay Kumar, who has been charged with sex crimes.
104. Former county commissioner and Rightmi.com owner Jason Gillman was endorsed by the NRA over moderate incumbent Larry Inman.
106. no clear choice
107. State rep. Lee Chatfield has made a couple bad votes since ousting moderate Frank Foster.  But he is still more conservative than Kathy Twardy, who is backed by supporters of Foster.
108. Veteran Alan Arcand is solidly conservative, but may have trouble in this vulnerable district.

Input from conservatives across Michigan is welcome.

Saturday, July 30, 2016

Beth Griffin for State Representative

Michigan's 66th state house district, which covers Van Buren County and Alamo, Cooper, and Parchment in Kalamazoo County, is open due to term limits.  There are three Republican candidates.  The best choice for conservatives is Beth Griffin.

Griffin is a Van Buren County Commissioner who was first elected in 2012.  She is a longtime member of the VanKal Tea Party.  She is solely endorsed by Michigan Right to Life, and has an Aq rating from the NRA.

Her main opponent, Matthew Nilson is not endorsed by Michigan Right to Life and has a C- rating from the NRA.

Beth Griffin is the best choice for conservatives.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

2016 Michigan State House Races

Last updated July 29, 2016.

Cross-posted at The Western RightRight Michigan, and Red Racing Horses.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans won a 63-47 majority in 2014, up from 59-41 after 2012. There are 42 open seats, 27 held by Republicans and 15 held by democrats. There are 41 open due to term-limits and 1 (Gretchen Driskell) just seeking another office.

Republicans picked up four seats (62, 71, 84, 91) in 2014.

Democrats are hoping to take back the state house. They will benefit from higher turnout in a presidential year and possibly coattails from the presidential race. They will try to take advantage of Republican support for a tax increase for roads and Governor Snyder's handling of the Flint water crisis, though state house candidates had nothing to do with the latter. There are also many Republican seats first won in 2010 that are now term-limited. Republicans may benefit from the recent elimination of straight ticket voting.

There are a number of interesting primaries in August. 2014 saw a number of primaries between establishment and Tea Party/antiestablishment conservatives. While the establishment won the majority of them, the antiestablishment won enough that the relatively conservative faction of the state house won the leadership races. The state house has served as a check on some of the Governor's less conservative plans.

This year, there are contests between relatively conservative candidates backed by the state house establishment, more moderate establishment candidates, and some antiestablishment conservatives supported by various Tea Parties and the Michigan Prosperity Project. Most primary battles are in open seats, but there are a few primary challenges to incumbents worth watching.

State house fundraising is analyzed in this article.





2016 Unofficial Michigan Primary Candidate Listing

The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012 and 2014 state house results, 2012 Romney %, and political rating. I did not use 'likely' in the general election ratings. Candidates are labeled as establishment (E), conservative (C), Tea Party (T), and antiestablishment conservative (AC), when these labels clearly apply. Candidates solely endorsed by Michigan Right to Life (RTL) are also noted.

1. (Brian Banks) [Detroit] 29-71, 31-69, 23.5%, Safe D
(D) Brian Banks won the 2012 primary before his long criminal record and ethical issues were exposed. He won a 2014 primary against divided opposition. This year, he again faces divided opposition and also new felony charges.
2. (OPEN-Alberta Tinsley Talibi) [Detroit] 26-72, 33-67, 23.8%, Safe D
3. (Wendell Byrd) [Detroit] 3-96, 3-97, 1.6%, Safe D
4. (Rose Robinson) [Detroit] 5-95, 5-95, 3.4%, Safe D
5. (Fred Durhal III) [Detroit] 6-94, 5-95, 2.7%, Safe D
6. (Stephanie Chang) [Detroit] 5-92, 6-94, 5.3%, Safe D
7. (LaTanya Garrett) [Detroit] 2-98, 2-98, 0.9%, Safe D
8. (Sherry Gay-Dagnogo) [Detroit] 3-97, 3-97, 2%, Safe D
9. (OPEN-Harvey Santana) [Detroit] 5-95, 4-96, 3.3%, Safe D
10. (Leslie Love) [Detroit] 14-86, 18-82, 16.4%, Safe D
11. (OPEN-Julie Plawecki) [Inkster, Garden City] 28-72, 30-70, 29.3%, Safe D
(D) This seat is open after Julie Plawecki's sudden death. There will be a special primary August 30. Party insiders picked Inkster Councilman Jewell Jones for the full term.
12. (Erika Geiss) [Taylor, Romulus] 25-75, 30-70, 29.5%, Safe D
13. (Frank Liberati) [Southgate, Allen Park, Dearborn Heights] 35-65, 39-61, 40.3%, Safe D
14. (OPEN-Paul Clemente) [Riverview, Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, Melvindale] 26-71, 30-70, 34.9%, Safe D
15. (OPEN-George Darany) [Dearborn] 25-75, 32-68, 33.5%, Safe D
16. (Robert Kosowski) [Westland, Wayne] 28-68, 32-68, 33.3%, Safe D
17. (Bill Lavoy) [N Monroe, Sumpter, Huron] 39-61, 40-60, 45.3%, Safe D
18. (OPEN-Sarah Roberts) [St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe] 34-64, 38-62, 40.7%, Safe D
19. (Laura Cox) [Livonia] 60-40, 62-38, 52%, Safe R
20. (OPEN-Kurt Heise) [Plymouth, Northville] 56-44, 60-40, 51.8%, Lean R
(R) (Lean Nielson) Attorney Jeffrey Neilson, pastor Jeff Noble (AC), and Northville Township Trustee Chris Roosen are running.
21. (Kristy Pagan) [Canton, Van Buren] 38-62, 45-55, 43.3%, Safe D
22. (John Chirkun) [Roseville, E Warren] 30-70, 32-64, 36.2%, Safe D
23. (OPEN-Pat Somerville) [SE Wayne] 50.5-49.5, 52.1-47.9, 47.5%, Tossup
Pat Somerville won three close victories in this seat, which is the top D target.
(R) (Likely Howey) Trenton Councilman Bob Howey (E/RTL) faces Michael Frazier and Mike Taylor.
(D) Township Clerk Sherry Berecz, Parks commissioner Darin Calmilleri, Trenton councilmember Steve Rzeppa, and Elayne Petrucci are running.
24. (OPEN-Anthony Forlini) [Harrison, N Clinton, SW Macomb] 54.7-45.3, 59-39, Lean R
(R) (Likely Marino) Macomb County Commissioner Steve Marino (E/RTL), Arzo Smith, and Darrel Smith are running.
25. (Henry Yanez) [E Sterling Heights, NC Warren] 48.6-51.4, 46.5-53.5, 47.8%, Safe D
26. (OPEN-Jim Townsend) [Royal Oak, Madison Heights] 36-60, 39-61, 40.3%, Safe D
27. (Robert Whittenberg) [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park] 20-76, 24-76, 24.8%, Safe D
28. (OPEN-Derek Miller) [W Warren, Center Line] 21-79, 36-64, 35.8%, Safe D
29. (Tim Greimel) [Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Orchard Lake] 23-77, 26-74, 23.9%, Safe D
30. (OPEN-Jeff Farrington) [W Sterling Heights, Utica, SE Shelby] 53.3-46.7, 55-45, 51.5%, Lean R
(R) (Likely Farrington) Diana Farrington (E), wife of the incumbent, faces Joseph Bogdan, Jackie Ryan, and Michael Shallal.
31. (OPEN-Marilyn Lane) [S Clinton, Fraser, Mt. Clemens] 34-62, 39-61, 41.8%, Safe D
32. (OPEN-Andrea LaFontaine) [Chesterfield, C St. Clair] 59-41, 62-38, 53.9%, Safe R
(R) (Lean Hornberger) School board treasurer Pamela Hornberger (E), Michael Schmina, and Justin Tranchita are running.
33. (OPEN-Ken Goike) [NE Macomb, Macomb Twp.] 62-38, 66-34, 56.2%, Safe R
(R) (Tossup) city councilman Jeff Yaroch, Mel Koch, Colleen Carl (C) daughter of late state senator Douglas Carl (1986-1997), Julianne Cusumano, Chales Karafa, and Steven Stoll are running.
34. (Sheldon Neeley) [Flint] 13-87, 9-91, 8.3%, Safe D
35. (Jeremy Moss) [Southfield] 17-83, 17-83, 17.6%, Safe D
36. (Peter Lucido) [Shelby, Washington, Bruce] 64-36, 70-30, 61%, Safe R
37. (Kristine Greig) [Farmington] 38-62, 43-57, 40.3%, Safe D
38. (Kathy Crawford) [Novi, Lyon] 59-41, 63-37, 53.6%, Safe R
39. (Klint Kesto) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom] 53.3-46.7, 52.3-47.7, 51.5%, Lean R
40. (Michael McCready) [Bloomfield, Birmingham, E West Bloomfield] 57-41, 58-42, 52.8%, Safe R
41. (Martin Howrylak) [Troy, Clawson] 50.5-49.5, 56-44, 51.6%, Lean R
42. (Lana Theis) [SE Livingston] 63-33, 65-35, 60.2%, Safe R
43. (Jim Tedder) [Waterford, Independence] 66-34, 58-42, 54.8%, Safe R
44. (Jim Runestad) [Springfield, White Lake, Highland, Milford] 63-33, 68-32, 59.1%, Safe R
45. (Michael Webber) [Rochester, S Oakland Twp] 56-44, 56-44, 55.9%, Safe R
46. (OPEN-Bradford Jacobsen) [NE Oakland] 64-36, 69-31, 60.1%, Safe R
(R) (Tossup) Bradford Jacobsen narrowly beat back a primary challenge 54-46 from John Reilly in 2014. This time, Reilly (AC) faces Joe Kent (E).
47. (Henry Vaupel) [N Livingston] 64-32, 69-27, 62.5%, Safe R
48. (Pam Faris) [NE Genesee] 36-64, 38-62, 39.8%, Safe D
49. (Phil Phelps) [Flint Twp., Mt. Morris, SW Flint] 25-75, 26-74, 28.8%, Safe D
50. (OPEN-Charles Smiley) [Burton, Grand Blanc, Mundy] 39-61, 41-59, 42.7%, Safe D
51. (Joe Graves) [W Genesee, Fenton, NW Oakland] 54.3-45.7, 58-42, 53.1%, Safe R
52. (OPEN-Gretchen Driskell) [W Washtenaw] 47-53, 44-56, 47.5%, Safe D
This seat is open since Driskell, who beat an incumbent R in 2012, is running for Congress.
(D) Road commissioner Barb Fuller and school board treasurer Donna Lasinski are running.
53. (OPEN-Jeff Irwin) [Ann Arbor] 19-81, 18-82, 19.5%, Safe D
54. (OPEN-David Rutledge) [Ypsilanti] 23-77, 25-75, 23.8%, Safe D
55. (Adam Zemke) [Pittsfield, NE Ann Arbor, York, Augusta] 32-65, 32-68, 31.6%, Safe D
56. (Jason Sheppard) [S Monroe] 58-42, 50.3-47.1, 50.6%, Lean R
Jason Sheppard narrowly beat Tom Redmond in 2014 and faces a rematch in 2016.
57. (OPEN-Nancy Jenkins) [Lenawee] 52.5-47.5, 59-41, 49.9%, Tossup
(R) Senior center director Bronna Khale (E/RTL), Jim Cottrell, and Brian Good are running.
58. (Eric Leutheuser) [Branch, Hillsdale] 70-30, 71-29, 60.1%, Safe R
59. (Aaron Miller) [St. Joseph, E Cass] 62-38, 62-38, 54.7%, Safe R
60. (Jon Hoadley) [Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp.] 26-74, 30-70, 26.8%, Safe D
61. (Brandt Iden) [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] 58-42, 48.4-42.7, 49.1%, Lean R
Iden, who hurt himself by lying about a DUI in 2014, faces a rematch with liberal pastor John Fisher.
62. (John Bizon) [Battle Creek, Albion, N Calhoun] 42-58, 51.2-48.8, 43.8%, Tossup
Dr. Bizon faces Calhoun County Commissioner Jim Haadsma in this dem-leaning district.
63. (David Maturen) [E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun] 50.9-49.1, 56-44, 54.6%, Safe R
64. (OPEN-Earl Poleski) [Jackson city, W Jackson] 56-44, 61-39, 51.2%, Lean R
(R) (Lean Alexander) Jackson County Commissioner Julie Alexander, John Griffin, brother of the last D to hold this seat, and car dealer Phil Tripp are running.
65. (Brett Roberts) [N Jackson, SE Eaton] 57-43, 57-40, 53.4%, Safe R
66. (OPEN-Aric Nesbitt) [Van Buren, Cooper, Alamo, Parchment] 59-41, 57-43, 49.7%, Lean R
(R) (Likely Griffin) Van Buren County Commissioner Beth Griffin (E/T/RTL) faces Greg Kolich and veteran Matthew Nilson.
67. (Tom Cochran) [S Ingham] 44-56, 46-54, 44.8%, Safe D
68. (Andy Schor) [Lansing] 23-77, 23-77, 24.6%, Safe D
69. (Sam Singh) [East Lansing, Meridian] 35-65, 32-68, 35.9%, Safe D
70. (OPEN-Rick Outman) [Montcalm, N Gratiot] 54.5-45.5, 62-38, 52.6%, Safe R
(R) (Lean Lower) Former county commissioner James Lower (E), Alexander Gregory, Charles Mulholland, Jeremy Putansu, Dale Reyburn, and Michael Van Kleeck are running.
71. (Tom Barrett) [Eaton] 46.6-53.4, 50.4-49.6, 47.3%, Tossup
Tom Barrett beat dem state rep. Theresa Abed in 2014. She is back for a rematch in 2016.
72. (OPEN-Ken Yonker) [Kentwood, Gaines, NE Allegan] 59-38, 68-32, 56.3%, Safe R
(R) (Tossup) Teacher Ryan Gallogly, restaurateur Tony Noto, Bill Hirsch, Steven Johnson, and Robert Coughlin are running.
73. (Chris Afendoulis) [Grand Rapids Twp, Plainfield, NE Kent] 64-32, 68-32, 60.9%, Safe R
74. (Rob Verhuelen) [Grandville, Walker, Alpine, NW Kent] 66-34, 69-31, 60.4%, Safe R
75. (Dave LaGrand) [central Grand Rapids] 24-76, 26-74, 23.8%, Safe D
76. (Winnie Brinks) [peripheral Grand Rapids] 39-52, 45.6-52.1, 44.2%, Safe D
77. (OPEN-Thomas Hooker) [Wyoming, Byron] 60-36, 67-33, 58.3%, Safe R
(R) (Safe Brann) Restaurant owner Tommy Brann (E/C) faces Frank Murin.
78. (Dave Pagel) [S Berrien, SW Cass] 61-39, 67-33, 56.1%, Safe R
79. (OPEN-Al Pscholka) [N Berrien] 52.8-45.7, 59-39, 51.5%, Lean R (R) (Tossup) Realtor Ryan Arnt, teacher Kim LaSata, wife of former rep (1998-2004) Charles LaSata, Mary Brown, and Troy Rolling are running.
80. (Mary Whiteford) [Allegan] 62-38, 63-34, 57.6%, Safe R
(R) (Likely Whiteford) Mary Whiteford won a special election in March 2016 to replace expelled rep. Cindy Gamrat. She faces a primary against Abigail Nobel (C/T) this time.
81. (Dan Lauwers) [NW, E St. Clair] 53.8-46.2, 65-35, 55%, Safe R
82. (Gary Howell) [Lapeer] 59-41, 55-45, 55.1%, Safe R
83. (OPEN-Paul Muxlow) [Sanilac, Port Huron] 56-44, 62-38, 52.5%, Lean R
(R) (Tossup) Sanilac County Commissioner Justin Faber, conservative activist Shane Hernandez (C/T), and Matt Muxlow (son of the incumbent) are running.
84. (Edward Canfield) [Tuscola, Huron] 38-53, 59-41, 53-43, 55.6%, Safe R
85. (OPEN-Ben Glardon) [Shiawassee, W Saginaw] 54-40, 53-43, 48.9%, Lean R
(R) (Likely Frederick) Owosso Mayor Ben Frederick (C/E) faces Shiawassee County Commissioner Hartmann Aue. Robert Cotrell, and George Sode are also running.
86. (OPEN-Lisa Posthumus Lyons) [SE Kent, N Ionia] 70-30, 66-34, 63%, Safe R
(R) (Tossup) Marine Thomas Albert, attorney Katherine Henry (C), Jeffrey Johnson, and Bartholomew Lower are running.
87. (OPEN-Mike Callton) [Barry, S Ionia] 62-35, 67-33, 58.7%, Safe R
(R) Ionia County Commissioner Julie Calley, wife of LG Brian Calley, is unopposed in the primary.
88. (Roger Victory) [NE Ottawa] 87-0, 80-20, 72.9%, Safe R
89. (OPEN-Amanda Price) [W Ottawa] 66-34, 68-32, 61.6%, Safe R
(R) (Likely Lilly) Banker Jim Lilly (E/RTL) is the favorite over blogger Brandon Hall (AC), and Tracy Stille-Mulligan.
90. (Daniela Garcia) [Holland] 100-0, 78-22, 66.5%, Safe R
91. (Holly Hughes) [S, W Muskegon] 47.3-48.1, 46.5-46.3, 48.5%, Tossup
Holly Hughes defeated dem state rep. Colleen LaMonte in 2014, who defeated her in 2012. LaMonte is back for a rematch in 2016.
92. (OPEN-Marcia Hovey Wright) [Muskegon city] 27-73, 33-67, 31.3%, Safe D
93. (Tom Leonard) [S Gratiot, Clinton] 57-43, 56-35, 52.9%, Safe R
94. (Tim Kelly) [Saginaw Twp, E Saginaw] 56-44, 62-38, 55.7%, Safe R
95. (Vanessa Guerra) [Saginaw city] 22-78, 24-76, 24.8%, Safe D
96. (OPEN-Charles Brunner) [Bay] 31-69, 32-68, 45.3%, Safe D
(D) Principal Brian DuFresne, former county commissioner Brian Elder, and county commissioner Donald Tilley are running.
97. (OPEN-Joel Johnson) [Arenac, Gladwin, Clare, E Osceola] 62-38, 63-37, 53.2%, Lean R
(R) (Lean Wentworth) Veteran Jason Wentworth, George Gilmore, Brian Johnson, Jacob Link, and Thomas Winarski are running.
98. (Gary Glenn) [C Midland, N Bay] 59-41, 55-45, 56%, Safe R
99. (OPEN-Kevin Cotter) [Isabella, W Midland] 57-43, 51.5-48.5, 48.1%, Tossup
(R) (Lean Hauck) Township Trustee Roger Hauck and realtor Robin Stressman are running.
(D) Bryan Mielke is running again after coming close in 2014.
100. (OPEN-Jon Bumstead) [Newaygo, Oceana, Lake] 62-38, 63-37, 55.5%, Safe R
(R) (Likely VanSingel) Accountant/businessman Scott VanSingel (C/E), John Wilterink and Dan Eley are running.
101. (OPEN-Ray Franz) [Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Mason] 51-49, 50.4-49.6, 50.7%, Tossup
(R) (Likely VanderWall) Mason county commissioner Curt VanderWall, Mark Walter, and Cary Urka are running.
102. (OPEN-Phil Potvin) [Wexford, W Osceola, Mecosta] 54.8-45.2, 60-40, 56.3%, Safe R
(R) (Tossup) Veteran Jason Briscoe, Manton Mayor Michelle Hoitenga, party official Ormand Hook, and Morris Langworthy, who came close in 2010 and 2004, are running.
103. (OPEN-Bruce Rendon) [Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw] 52.8-47.2, 60-34, 55.9%, Lean R
(R) (Likely Rendon) Daire Rendon (E/RTL), wife of the incumbent, faces self-funding doctor Vijay Kumar, who has been charged with sexual abuse.
104. (Larry Inman) [Grand Traverse] 57-43, 53.2-46.8, 55.4%, Lean R
(R) (Likely Inman) Inman (E) won the Republican primary in 2014 with 21%. He is being challenged by former county commissioner Jason Gillman (AC).
105. (Triston Cole) [Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda] 67-33, 63-37, 58.5%, Safe R
106. (OPEN-Peter Petallia) [E Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco] 52.2-45.3, 55-45, 53.6%, Lean R
(R) (Tossup) Cheboygan County Commissioner Sue Allor, David Chandler, Chamber of Commerce official Jackie Krawczak, and Benishek staffer Jesse Osmer are running.
107. (Lee Chatfield) [Emmet, Mackinac, Chippewa, N Cheboygan] 58-42, 61-39, 55.5%, Safe R
(R) (Likely Chatfield) Lee Chatfield (C/E) defeated incumbent moderate Republican Frank Foster in the 2014 primary. Supporters of Foster are backing Sioux Sioux Ste Marie City Commissioner Kathy Twardy this year.
108. (OPEN-Ed McBroom) [Delta, Menominee, Dickinson] 54.6-45.4, 60-40, 54.6%, Tossup
(R) Veteran Alan Arcand (AC), Beau LaFave, and Darryl Shann are running.
109. (John Kivela) [Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, Luce] 42-58, 34-66, 45.4%, Safe D
(D) Kivela was arrested for 'super drunk' driving last year. He is being challenged by Marquette City Commissioner Sara Cambensy.
110. (Scott Dianda) [W Upper Peninsula] 48.4-51.6, 39-61, 51.6%, Safe D

Ratings:
Safe D: 47
Lean D: 0
Tossup: 8
Lean R: 17
Safe R: 38

Monday, July 25, 2016

2016 Michigan State House Fundraising

July 22 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Here are summaries of the total amounts raised in competitive Republican primaries and general elections for Michigan state house.  Primary ratings are included.  XX means the report has yet to be filed.

1. (D) Banks 136K Sossi 30K Broman 11K Youson 6K
20. (R) (Lean Nielson) Nielson 79K (37K self) Roosen 24K Noble 16K
23. (R) (Likely Howey) Howey 57K (25K self) Frazier XX Taylor 2K
    (D) (Tossup) Berecz 60K (26K self) Rzeppa 54K Camilleri 53K Petrucci 5K
24. (R) (Safe Marino) Marino 69K (35K self) D Smith 2K
    (D) Peterson 59K
30. (R) (Likely Farrington) Farrington 59K Shallal 14K Bogdan 3K
    (D) Notte 36K Spica 6K
32. (R) (Lean Hornberger) Hornberger 44K Shmina 19K Tranchita XX
33. (R) (Tossup) Yaroch 52K (49K self) Koch 21K Carl 15K Karafa 12K
39. (R) Kesto 151K (D) Stack 22K
41. (R) Howrylak 77K (D) Peltonon 4K
46. (R) (Tossup) Kent 97K (27K self) Reilly 46K
52. (R) Clark 13K (D) Fuller 116K Lasinski 99K
56. (R) Sheppard 102K (D) Redmond 18K
57. (R) (Likely Kahle) Kahle 73K Cottrell 10K Good $100 (D) Wimple 19K
60. (R) Ross 1K (D) Hoadley 84K
61. (R) Iden 125K (D) Fisher 26K
62. (R) Bizon 106K (D) Haadsma 55K
63. (R) Maturen 32K (D) Shiflea waiver
64. (R) (Lean Alexander) Griffin 92K Alexander 86K Tripp 65K (36K self)
    (D) Brooks 13K
66. (R) (Likely Griffin) Griffin 81K (40K self) Nilson 10K (6K self)
    (D) Brown 57K
70. (R) (Lean Lower) Lower 47K (17K self) VanKleek 10K Mulholland 6K Reyburn 5K Putansu XX
71. (R) Barrett 122K (D) Abed 43K
72. (R) (Tossup) Gallogly 33K Noto 25K Coughlin 12K Johnson 6K Hirsch 2K
76. (R) O'Neill 34K (D) Brinks 70K
77. (R) (Safe Brann) Brann 77K (51K self)
79. (R) (Tossup) Arnt 24K LaSata 23K Rolling 3K
80. (R) (Likely Whiteford) Whiteford 26K Nobel 8K
83. (R) (Tossup) Hernandez 35K Muxlow 26K Faber 20K (10K self)
85. (R) (Likely Frederick) Frederick 101K Aue 27K
    (D) Karhoff 8K Hovarth 6K Surprenant 5K
86. (R) (Tossup) Johnson 47K (38K self) Henry 43K (40K self) Albert 36K VanderWerff 3K Lower 2K
89. (R) (Likely Lilly) Lilly 85K Mulligan 37K Hall $100
91. (R) Hughes 166K (D) Lamonte 104K
96. (D) Elder 37K (26K self) Tilley 25K (10K self) DuFresne 18K
97. (R) (Lean Wentworth) Wentworth 41K (21K self) Gilmore 20K (16K self) Link 19K (12K self) Winarski 16K (7K self)
98. (R) Glenn 168K (D) Malicoat 13K
99. (R) (Lean Hauck) Hauck 26K Stressman 26K (D) Mielke 91K
100. (R) (Likely VanSingel) VanSingel 49K (17K self) Wilterink 7K
101. (R) (Likely VanderWall) VandelWall 38K (21K self) Walter 8K (D) Scripps 88K
102. (R) (Tossup) Hoitenga 44K (30K self) Hook 41K Briscoe 8K Langworthy 4K
103. (R) (Likely Rendon) Kumar 139K self Rendon 62K (D) Stancil 29K
104. (R) (Likely Inman) Inman 112K Gillman 22K (8K self) (D) Coffia 24K
106. (R) (Tossup) Allor 67K (56K self) Krawkzac 33K Osmer 27K Chandler 8K self
    (D) Kieliszewski 53K Kennedy 15K
107. (R) (Likely Chatfield) Chatfield 166K Twardy 23K (8K self)
108. (R) (Tossup) Lafave 27K Shann 17K Arcand 6K
    (D) Celello 56K Dziedzic 7K
109. (D) Kivela 23K Cambensey 6K

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Michigan Right to Life Endorsements

Michigan Right to Life has just issued its endorsements for the 2016 primary.  RTL swings a significant number of Michigan primary voters, so its endorsements will decide some races.

RTL will recommend all candidates if they are all pro-life, but if there is a serious non-pro-life candidate, they will pick one pro-life candidate to endorse.  Their noteworthy endorsements are listed below.

Congress:
1. Allen, Bergman, and Casperson meet criteria.
3. Justin Amash is endorsed after nonendorsements in 2012 and 2014.
6. Fred Upton is again endorsed, despite his long pro-abortion record.
10. All five Rs meet criteria.

State House:
20: All meet criteria
23: Bob Howey
24: Steve Marino
25: Ronald Albers
30: All meet criteria
32: All meet criteria
33: All but Stoll meet criteria
46: All meet criteria
57: Bronna Kahle
64: All meet criteria
66: Beth Griffin
70: Lower, Mulholland, Reyburn, Van Kleeck meet criteria
72: All meet criteria
77: All meet criteria
79: All meet criteria
83: All meet criteria
85: Aue and Frederick meet criteria
86: All meet criteria
89: Jim Lilly
96: (D) Brian Elder
97: All meet criteria
99: All meet criteria
100: VanSingel and Wilterink meet criteria
101: Vanderwall and Walter meet criteria
102: All meet criteria
103: Daire Rendon
106: All meet criteria
108: All meet criteria

Kalamazoo County Commission:
5: Chad Dillon
6: Frank Brooks
7: Roger Tuinier
9: Dale Shugars
10: Jerry Whitaker
11: Scott McGraw

NRA Endorsements

The NRA has released its grades for contested state house races.  They endorse all incumbents who meet their minimum criteria.  They endorsed in some, but not all open seats.  Notable grades and endorsements (in bold) include:

20: Noble and Roosen get Aq.  Nielson gets a D.
33: Carl, Koch, and Yaroch get Aq.
66: Griffin and Kolich get Aq.  Nilson gets C-.
70: Lower gets Aq.
72: Noto and Johnson get Aq.
77: Brann gets B-.
85: Frederick and Aue get Aq.
86: Henry and Johnson get Aq.
89: Lilly get Aq
97: Gilmore and Link get Aq.
99: Hauck gets Aq, Stressman gets C.
100: VanSingel and Wilterink get Aq.
101: VanderWall gets Aq.
103: Rendon gets Aq.
104: Gillman gets Aq and endorsement over Inman C.  This is the only endorsement of a primary challenger to an incumbent.
107: Chatfield gets A+ over Twardy C+.