Sunday, March 18, 2018

2018 Michigan State House Races

Last updated May 6, 2018.

Cross-posted at The Western RightRight Michigan, and RRH Elections.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans won a 63-47 majority in 2016, the same margin as in 2014. There are 42 open seats, 25 held by Republicans and 17 held by democrats. There are 23 open due to term-limits, 18 just due to seeking another office, and 1 pure retirement.

Democrats are hoping to take control of the state house. They may benefit from anti-Trump enthusiasm.  In some seats, the candidate fields have yet to take shape. Libertarians achieved major party status due to Gary Johnson's showing in 2016, which makes it easier for people to run as Libertarians.  Another factor is the fate of the bill eliminating straight ticket voting, which is currently tied up in court.

The last two cycles have seen contests between moderate and conservative factions in the house GOP, won by the conservatives narrowly in 2014 and more decisively in 2016.  This time, the house GOP candidate recruitment is solidly in the hands of conservatives, and conservative Lee Chatfield is the presumptive next house GOP leader.  There are still likely to be some ideological battles, particularly in districts vacated by moderate incumbents.

Republican Michigander has a profile of the Michigan state house focusing more on district demographics.





The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012, 2014, and 2016 state house results, 2012 Romney %, 2016 Trump % (if known), and political rating.  Candidates are designated as conservative (C), moderate (M), establishment (E), or antiestablishment (A) if this is known.

1. (Tenisha Yancey) [Detroit] 29-71, 31-69, 32-68, R23.5%, Safe D
Brian Banks resigned following another felony conviction.  He was succeeded by Tenisha Yancey.
2. (OPEN-Bettie Cook Scott) [Detroit] 26-72, 33-67, 28-72, 23.8%, Safe D
3. (Wendell Byrd) [Detroit] 3-96, 3-97, 3-97, 1.6%, Safe D
4. (OPEN-Rose Robinson) [Detroit] 5-95, 5-95, 5-95, 3.4%, Safe D
(D) An incredible 14 D candidates are running for this seat.
5. (Fred Durhal III) [Detroit] 6-94, 5-95, 7-93, 2.7%, Safe D
6. (OPEN-Stephanie Chang) [Detroit] 5-92, 6-94, 7-93, 5.3%, Safe D
(D) Ten Ds are running for this seat.
7. (LaTanya Garrett) [Detroit] 2-98, 2-98, 2-98, 0.9%, Safe D
8. (Sherry Gay-Dagnogo) [Detroit] 3-97, 3-97, 4-96, 2%, Safe D
9. (OPEN-Sylvia Santana) [Detroit] 5-95, 4-96, 6-94, 3.3%, Safe D
10. (Leslie Love) [Detroit] 14-86, 18-82, 15-82, 16.4%, Safe D
11. (Jewell Jones) [Inkster, Garden City] 28-72, 30-70, 36-64, R29.3%, T34.8%, Safe D
12. (OPEN-Erika Geiss) [Taylor, Romulus] 25-75, 30-70, 33-67, 39-61, R29.5%, T38.9%, Safe D
13. (Frank Liberati) [Southgate, Allen Park, Dearborn Heights] 35-65, 39-61, R40.3%, T46.7%, Safe D
14. (Cara Clemente) [Riverview, Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, Melvindale] 26-71, 30-70, 36-64, R34.9%, T44.3%, Safe D
15. (Abdullah Hammoud) [Dearborn] 25-75, 32-68, 38-62, R33.5%, T31%, Safe D
16. (OPEN-Robert Kosowski) [Westland, Wayne] 28-68, 32-68, 36-64, R33.3%, T38.7%, Safe D
17. (Joe Bellino) [N Monroe, Sumpter, Huron] 39-61, 40-60, 52.2-44.3, R45.3%, T56.3%, Tossup
Republican Joseph Bellino pulled off a shocking upset against D Bill LaVoy in a district that swung heavily to Trump. Lavoy's wife Michelle is running this time.
18. (Kevin Hertel) [St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe] 34-64, 38-62, 37-63, R40.7%, T44.9%, Safe D
19. (OPEN-Laura Cox) [Livonia] 60-40, 62-38, 61-39, R52%, T51.1%, Lean R
(R) Livonia city councilman Brian Meakin is unopposed for the R nomination.
20. (Jeff Noble) [Plymouth, Northville] 56-44, 60-40, 53.6-46.4, R51.8%, T45.7%, Lean R
21. (Kristy Pagan) [Canton, Van Buren] 38-62, 45-55, 41-59, R43.3%, Safe D
22. (John Chirkun) [Roseville, E Warren] 30-70, 32-64, 35-60, R36.2%, Safe D
23. (Darin Calmilleri) [SE Wayne] 50.5-49.5, 52.1-47.9, 49.7-50.3, R47.5%, T53.8%, Lean D
24. (Steve Marino) [Harrison, N Clinton, SW Macomb] 54.7-45.3, 59-39, 55-45, R47.5%, T56%, Lean R
25. (OPEN-Henry Yanez) [E Sterling Heights, NC Warren] 48.6-51.4, 46.5-53.5, 46-54, R47.8%, T52.5%, Lean D
R Jazmine Early will face D Nate Shannon for this competitive seat.
26. (Jim Ellison) [Royal Oak, Madison Heights] 36-60, 39-61, 41-59, R40.3%, T37.5%, Safe D
27. (Robert Whittenberg) [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park] 20-76, 24-76, 23-77, R24.8%, T23.3%, Safe D
28. (Patrick Green) [W Warren, Center Line] 21-79, 36-64, 34-66, R35.8%, Safe D
29. (OPEN-Tim Greimel) [Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Orchard Lake] 23-77, 26-74, 25-71, R23.9%, T26.7%, Safe D
30. (Diana Farrington) [W Sterling Heights, Utica, SE Shelby] 53.3-46.7, 55-45, 54-46, R51.5%, T57.1%, Lean R
31. (William Sowerby) [S Clinton, Fraser, Mt. Clemens] 34-62, 39-61, 39-56, R41.8%, T48.1%, Safe D
32. (Pamela Hornberger) [Chesterfield, C St. Clair] 59-41, 62-38, 64-36, R53.9%, T64.5%, Safe R
33. (Jeff Yaroch) [NE Macomb, Macomb Twp.] 62-38, 66-34, 70-30, R56.2%, T63.8%, Safe R
34. (Sheldon Neeley) [Flint] 13-87, 9-91, 11-89, R8.3%, Safe D
35. (OPEN-Jeremy Moss) [Southfield] 17-83, 17-83, 16-84, R17.6%, T15.7%, Safe D
(D) State senator Vincent Gregory is seeking a third and final state house term.  He one of six Ds running for this seat.
36. (OPEN-Peter Lucido) [Shelby, Washington, Bruce] 64-36, 70-30, 72-28, R61%, T65.7%, Safe R
(R) Scott Czasak, a staffer for rep Lucido, is seeking this seat.  Frank Lams, Karen Potchynok-Lund, Tom Stanis, and Douglas Wozniak are also seeking the R nomination.
37. (Kristine Greig) [Farmington] 38-62, 43-57, 36-61, R40.3%, T35.6%, Safe D
38. (Kathy Crawford) [Novi, Lyon] 59-41, 63-37, 58-42, R53.6%, T49.4%, Safe R
39. (OPEN-Klint Kesto) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom] 53.3-46.7, 52.3-47.7, 50.4-42.2, R51.5%, T50.4%, Tossup
(R) Ryan Berman, Phillip Hoyt, Marsha Kosmatka, and Kevin Tatulyan are seeking the R nomination.
40. (OPEN-Michael McCready) [Bloomfield, Birmingham, E West Bloomfield] 57-41, 58-42, 53.5-46.5, R52.8%, T42.7%, Tossup
(R) Mike Banerian, Malissa Bossardet, Paul Secrest, Paul Taros, David Wolkinson, and Joe Zane are running.  Wolkinson (C), a conservative former state GOP official, finished a close second in the 2012 primary for this seat.
41. (OPEN-Martin Howrylak) [Troy, Clawson] 50.5-49.5, 56-44, 56-44, R51.6%, T47%, Tossup
(R) County commissioner and former Troy councilman Doug Tietz (C), who worked on the MCRI in 2006, is running here.  Also running are Troy councilman Ethan Baker and Ronald Dwyer.
42. (OPEN-Lana Theis) [SE Livingston] 63-33, 65-35, 64-32, R60.2%, T59.3%, Safe R
(R) Brighton Township Trustee Ann Bollin (C) is unopposed for the R nomination.
43. (OPEN-Jim Tedder) [Waterford, Independence] 66-34, 58-42, 66-34, R54.8%, T56.8%, Safe R
(R) Independence Township Trustees Jose Aliaga (C) and Andrea Schroder, who finished third and second in the 2014 primary, are running again.  Waterford Township Trustee Anthony Bartolotta is also running.
44. (OPEN-Jim Runestad) [Springfield, White Lake, Highland, Milford] 63-33, 68-32, 69-31, R59.1%, T60.6%, Safe R
(R) Tea Party leader and Trump supporter Matt Maddock (AC), who narrowly lost a challenge to state sen Mike Kowall in 2014, is the favorite here.  He faces April Guiles, Michael Mamut, Matt Marko, and Lynn O'Brien.
45. (Michael Webber) [Rochester, S Oakland Twp] 56-44, 56-44, 62-38, R55.9%, T51.5%, Safe R
46. (John Reilly) [NE Oakland] 64-36, 69-31, 69-31, R60.1%, T61.1%, Safe R
47. (Henry Vaupel) [N Livingston] 64-32, 69-27, 68-27, R62.5%, T65.1%, Safe R
48. (OPEN-Pam Faris) [NE Genesee] 36-64, 38-62, 46-54, R39.8%, T51.8%, Safe D
49. (OPEN-Phil Phelps) [Flint Twp., Mt. Morris, SW Flint] 25-75, 26-74, 32-68, R28.8%, Safe D
(D) John Cherry, son of the former LG, is one of six Ds running here.
50. (Tim Sneller) [Burton, Grand Blanc, Mundy] 39-61, 41-59, 48-52, R42.7%, T47.9%, Safe D
51. (Joe Graves) [W Genesee, Fenton, NW Oakland] 54.3-45.7, 58-42, 61-34, R53.1%, T59.1%, Safe R
(R) Michael Anderton, Mike Mueller, county commissioner Drew Shapiro, and Ian Shetron are running.
52. (Donna Lasinski) [W Washtenaw] 47-53, 44-56, 44.7-52.2, R47.5%, T42.5%, Safe D
53. (Yousef Rabhi) [Ann Arbor] 19-81, 18-82, 16-80, R19.5%, Safe D
54. (Ronnie Peterson) [Ypsilanti] 23-77, 25-75, 25-75, R23.8%, T23.1%, Safe D
55. (OPEN-Adam Zemke) [Pittsfield, NE Ann Arbor, York, Augusta] 32-65, 32-68, 31-69, R31.6%, Safe D
(D) State senator Rebekah Warren is running for a third and final state house term.  She faces Shauna McNally
56. (Jason Sheppard) [S Monroe] 58-42, 50.3-47.1, 58-39, R50.6%, T59.2%, Lean R
57. (Bronna Khale) [Lenawee] 52.5-47.5, 59-41, 56-44, R49.9%, T57.2%, Lean R
58. (Eric Leutheuser) [Branch, Hillsdale] 70-30, 71-29, 75-25, R60.1%, T68.8%, Safe R
59. (Aaron Miller) [St. Joseph, E Cass] 62-38, 62-38, 67-33, R54.7%, T62%, Safe R
60. (Jon Hoadley) [Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp.] 26-74, 30-70, 25-69, R26.8%, T24%, Safe D
61. (Brandt Iden) [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] 58-42, 48.4-42.7, 49.4-44.7, R49.1%, T44.9%, Tossup
Iden, who hurt himself by lying about a DUI in 2014, has been attacked for his support of Trump (he was a national delegate) but got good PR for his mass shooting alert bill.
(D) Alberta Griffin, Corey Kendall, and Thomas Whitener are seeking the D nomination.
62. (OPEN-John Bizon) [Battle Creek, Albion, N Calhoun] 42-58, 51.2-48.8, 48-47.5, R43.8%, T48.4%, Lean D
Bizon, who is running for state senate, narrowly beat D Calhoun County Commissioner Jim Haadsma in 2016.  Haadsma is running again.  Dave Morgan, former Calhoun D chairman and state house candidate turned R Pennfield Township Supervisor, is running.
63. (David Maturen) [E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun] 50.9-49.1, 56-44, 61-33, R54.6%, T57.5%, Safe R
(R) Maturen, one of the most moderate Rs in the legislature, is being challenged by Richland Township Trustee Paul Foust and MI GOP activist Matt Hall.
64. (Julie Alexander) [Jackson city, W Jackson] 56-44, 61-39, 63-37, R51.2%, T54%, Safe R
65. (OPEN-Brett Roberts) [N Jackson, SE Eaton] 57-43, 57-40, 61-35, R53.4%, T59.8%, Safe R
(R) Jackson county commissioners Sarah Lightner and Carl Rice are running, along with Todd Brittain and Matt Eyer.
66. (Beth Griffin) [Van Buren, Cooper, Alamo, Parchment] 59-41, 57-43, 54.3-45.7, R49.7%, T53.5%, Safe R
67. (OPEN-Tom Cochran) [S Ingham] 44-56, 46-54, 45.4-54.6, R44.8%, T44.7%, Safe D
68. (OPEN-Andy Schor) [Lansing] 23-77, 23-77, 22-73, R24.6%, T24.1%, Safe D
(D) Schor vacated this seat after his election as Mayor of Lansing.  Former R state rep Paul DeWeese (98-02) is one of seven Ds running.
69. (OPEN-Sam Singh) [East Lansing, Meridian] 35-65, 32-68, 32-68, R35.9%, T28.9%, Safe D
70. (James Lower) [Montcalm, N Gratiot] 54.5-45.5, 62-38, 63-32, R52.6%, T61.8%, Safe R
71. (OPEN-Tom Barrett) [Eaton] 46.6-53.4, 50.4-49.6, 54-43, R47.3%, T48.1%, Tossup
(R) Eaton County commissioner Christine Barnes, Chuck Cascarilla, Chris Stewart, and Clarissa Trevino are running.
72. (Steven Johnson) [Kentwood, Gaines, NE Allegan] 59-38, 68-32, 59-41, R56.3%, T51.7%, Safe R
(R) Johnson, a libertarian conservative in the mold of Justin Amash, is being challenged by Wayland Mayor pro tem Jennifer Antel.
73. (OPEN-Chris Afendoulis) [Grand Rapids Twp, Plainfield, NE Kent] 64-32, 68-32, 64-32, R60.9%, T55.5%, Safe R
(R) Lynn Afendoulis, wife of the incumbent, faces Ken Fortier, Robert Regan, and David Spencer.
74. (OPEN-Rob Verhuelen) [Grandville, Walker, Alpine, NW Kent] 66-34, 69-31, 64-31, R60.4%, T58.8%, Safe R
(R) Mark Huizenga, mayor of Walker, is unopposed for the R nomination.
75. (Dave LaGrand) [central Grand Rapids] 24-76, 26-74, 24-76, R23.8%, Safe D
76. (OPEN-Winnie Brinks) [peripheral Grand Rapids] 39-52, 45.6-52.1, 39-57, R44.2%, Safe D
R Amanda Brand faces D Rachel Hood for this seat.
77. (Tommy Brann) [Wyoming, Byron] 60-36, 67-33, 66-34, R58.3%, T54.2%, Safe R
78. (OPEN-Dave Pagel) [S Berrien, SW Cass] 61-39, 67-33, 68-32, R56.1%, T58.9%, Safe R
(R) Niles city councilman David Mann (C), Steve Bury, Dana Daniels, Daniel Hinkle, Brad Paquette, and Kelly Priede are running.
79. (OPEN-Kim LaSata) [N Berrien] 52.8-45.7, 59-39, 59-38, R51.5%, T51.4%, Lean R
(R) Kim LaSata is running for state senate. JoAnn DeMuelenaere, Bruce Gorenflo, Maria Moen, Troy Rolling, and Pauline Wendzel are running.
80. (Mary Whiteford) [Allegan] 62-38, 63-34, 67-28, R57.6%, T59.8%, Safe R
81. (OPEN-Dan Lauwers) [NW, E St. Clair] 53.8-46.2, 65-35, 69-31, R55%, T65.6%, Safe R
(R) Eight candidates are running:  Gary Eisen, who finished second in 2012, John Mahaney, Kenneth Nicholl, Michael Pratt, Eric Stocker, Dan Tollis, Dan Turke, and Joel Willaims.
82. (Gary Howell) [Lapeer] 59-41, 55-45, 69-31, R55.1%, T66.5%, Safe R
83. (Shane Hernandez) [Sanilac, Port Huron] 56-44, 62-38, 63-34, R52.5%, T60.8%, Safe R
84. (OPEN-Edward Canfield) [Tuscola, Huron] 38-53, 59-41, 65-35, R55.6%, T66.6%, Safe R
Canfield is retiring after two terms for personal reasons.
(R) Matthew Bierlein, Phil Green, and Dean Smith are running.
85. (Ben Frederick) [Shiawassee, W Saginaw] 54-40, 53-43, 56-34, R48.9%, T57.9%, Safe R
86. (Thomas Albert) [SE Kent, N Ionia] 70-30, 66-34, 60-35, R63%, T58.6%, Safe R
87. (Julie Calley) [Barry, S Ionia] 62-35, 67-33, 67-28, R58.7%, T63.5%, Safe R
88. (OPEN-Roger Victory) [NE Ottawa] 87-0, 80-20, 75-25, R72.9%, T68.1%, Safe R
(R) Michael Bosch, Brent Huddleston, Luke Meerman, and Jason Minier are running.
89. (Jim Lilly) [W Ottawa] 66-34, 68-32, 61-34, R61.6%, T57.6%, Safe R
90. (OPEN-Daniela Garcia) [Holland] 100-0, 78-22, 73-27, R66.5%, T60.4%, Safe R
(R) Ottawa County Treasurer is the favorite over Orlando Estrada.
91. (OPEN-Holly Hughes) [S, W Muskegon] 47.3-48.1, 46.5-46.3, 49.3-43.7, R48.5%, T54.1%, Tossup
(R) Congressional staffer Greg VanWoerkom, son of state senator (02-10) Jerry VanWoerkom, faces Alan Jager.
92. (Terry Sabo) [Muskegon city] 27-73, 33-67, 32-68, R31.3%, T36.3%, Safe D
93. (OPEN-Tom Leonard) [S Gratiot, Clinton] 57-43, 56-35, 62-33, R52.9%, T55.1%, Safe R
(R) Madhu Anderson, Assistant AG Graham Filler, and county commissioner Anne Hill are running.
94. (OPEN-Tim Kelly) [Saginaw Twp, E Saginaw] 56-44, 62-38, 65-35, R55.7%, T57.7%, Safe R
(R) Steven Gerhardt, Rick Riebschleger, and Rodney Wakeman are running.
95. (Vanessa Guerra) [Saginaw city] 22-78, 24-76, 26-74, R24.8%, T29.8%, Safe D
96. (Brian Elder) [Bay] 31-69, 32-68, 42-58, R45.3%, T51.5%, Safe D
97. (Jason Wentworth) [Arenac, Gladwin, Clare, E Osceola] 62-38, 63-37, 65-35, R53.2%, T65.1%, Safe R
98. (OPEN-Gary Glenn) [C Midland, N Bay] 59-41, 55-45, 60-40, R56%, T56%, Safe R
(R) Annette Glenn, wife of the incumbent, is favored over Carl Hamann, who is not running a serious campaign.
99. (Roger Hauck) [Isabella, W Midland] 57-43, 51.5-48.5, 54.6-45.4, R48.1%, T52.8%, Tossup
100. (Scott VanSingel) [Newaygo, Oceana, Lake] 62-38, 63-37, 67-33, R55.5%, T64.2%, Safe R
101. (OPEN-Curt VanderWall) [Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Mason] 51-49, 50.4-49.6, 54-46, R50.7%, T54%, Tossup
(R) Carolyn Cater and Jack O'Malley are seeking this seat.
102. (Michelle Hoitenga) [Wexford, W Osceola, Mecosta] 54.8-45.2, 60-40, 69-31, R56.3%, T63.4%, Safe R
103. (Daire Rendon) [Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw] 52.8-47.2, 60-34, 58-42, R55.9%, T66.4%, Safe R
104. (Larry Inman) [Grand Traverse] 57-43, 53.2-46.8, 51.4-43.2, R55.4%, T53.1%, Lean R
105. (Triston Cole) [Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda] 67-33, 63-37, 70-30, R58.5%, T63.8%, Safe R
106. (Sue Allor) [E Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco] 52.2-45.3, 55-45, 61-35, R53.6%, T63.2%, Safe R
107. (Lee Chatfield) [Emmet, Mackinac, Chippewa, N Cheboygan] 58-42, 61-39, 67-33, R55.5%, T58.9%, Safe R
(R) Chatfield is the favorite to be Republican leader next term.  He faces a primary challenge from Bruce Newville.
108. (Beau LaFave) [Delta, Menominee, Dickinson] 54.6-45.4, 60-40, 52.7-47.3, R54.6%, T62.2%, Lean R
109. (Sara Cambensy) [Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, Luce] 42-58, 34-66, 34-62, R45.4%, T48.7%, Safe D
Cambensey, who lost a primary challenge to John Kivela in 2016, won a special election to replace Kivela after his suicide.
110. (OPEN-Scott Dianda) [W Upper Peninsula] 48.4-51.6, 39-61, 39-61, R51.6%, T56.5%, Tossup
(R) Keith LaCosse, Gregory Markkanen, Kirk Schott, and Brady Tervo are running.

Safe D Ratings:
Safe D: 44
Lean D: 3 (23, 25, 62)
Tossup: 10 (17, 39, 40, 41, 61, 71, 91, 99, 101, 110)
Lean R: 10 (19, 20, 24, 30, 56, 57, 66, 79, 104, 108)
Safe R: 43