Some folks have already begun discussing what will happen to
the 2020 redistricting cycle, so I'll weigh in as well. If Michigan
keeps 14 districts, an incumbent protection map is likely, with small shifts
necessary to account for changes in population.
has lost at least one congressional district for each of the last several
cycles, and will probably lose another next time. Republicans currently have a 9-5 advantage in
the congressional delegation. Can they
stretch it to 9-4? Yes, as the following
map shows. Michigan
I should note that I am assuming that the population trends that have affected
over the previous decade will continue.
In the previous decade, Michigan
lost 240,000 people. I assumed that Detroit
will lose another 100,000 people.
According the census estimates, it has lost 28,000 in the last two
years. Hence I overpopulated the Wayne County districts by
50,000 each, and underpopulated the Republican districts 10000-15000 each to
compensate. It is just barely possible
to maintain two black majority districts with these numbers, which leaves
little flexibility for how to draw them. Detroit
Many people have identified Sander Levin's 9th district as the most likely to be dismantled, and I agree. I drew the two
districts to pick up the most democrat parts of his district, with the rest
going to two Republican districts. The
metro Detroit Republican districts have to change significantly to account for
this. John Dingell's Downriver/Ann Arbor
district is mostly unchanged. Detroit
The key to the map, though, is the 5th district. It currently contains
Saginaw, and ,
along with some Republican and swing territory nearby. There aren't any major dem areas adjacent to
the district. Packing it as efficiently
as possible requires adding Bay County Lansing and , with
Shiawassee as a connector. This moves
the district 5% to the left, and allows Republican districts in metro East Lansing Detroit to take a few democrat areas, including Royal Oak and . Westland
Here is the map.
Here are the district descriptions with McCain 2008 and 2006 GOP average data.
1: 48.4/54.9 (unchanged) The UP and Northern LP. Adds a few counties for population. This district is never safe, but it has been trending Republican in recent years.
2: 49.0/61.7 (moves about 1.5% left, which it can afford)
Michigan. Adds a chunk of . Grand Rapids
3: 50.2/62.4 (moves about 1.5% right) Kent, Calhoun. Adds some of Eaton.
4: 48.5/57.9 (unchanged)
Michigan. Not much changes.
5: 30.6/40.5 (3-5% left)
Bay. Pretty clean, too. Saginaw
6: 45.5/56.1 (moves a hair right)
SW Michigan. Adds Branch and Hillsdale.
7: 48.6/58.9 (about 1.5% right) Livingston,
, Lenawee, parts of Jackson, Ingham,
Washtenaw. Walberg and Monroe ' bases are both here. Rogers
8: 48.3/60.2 (about 1% right) NW
W Oakland, S Genesee. State senators Pat Colbeck or Dave Robertson
would like this district.
9: 31.7/42.6 (not much change) Downriver and
. Bet on someone named Dingell representing
this. Ann Arbor
10: 49.3/58.9 (about 1% left)
St. Clair, the Grosse Pointes. Loses the
Thumb, adds the Grosse Pointes, Sterling Heights,
and . Safe for any Republican incumbent; could be
vulnerable to a St. Clair Shores
democrat if open. Macomb
11: 49.0/61.2 (a bit right)
and the Thumb. Parts of the existing
and Bentivolio districts. Rogers
12: 18.9/28.4 (51.6 Black/50.2 Black VAP) E Detroit,
13: 19.0/29.5 (52.6 Black/50.9 Black VAP) W Detroit,
Pontiac, Farmington, Southfield, Romulus