Wednesday, January 11, 2017

2016 Election Results in Kalamazoo County

The trends that led to Donald Trump's statewide victory in Michigan also affected Kalamazoo County.  Trump did well in rural areas.  He also did much better in downscale areas of Comstock and Galesburg.  He did badly in Kalamazoo and underperformed in upscale areas of Portage and Oshtemo.
Compare Romney (2012) and Trump (2016):
Trump got the same two-party percentage (43.2%) as Romney in Kalamazoo County.  The following map compares Trump and Romney.  More green is better for Trump, more yellow/orange is worse for Trump (better for Romney).
Trump did best relative to Romney in Galesburg, Comstock 1-3, and K Township 1, all downscale areas.  Trump did worst relative to Romney in Portage 18 (Moorsbridge), Oshtemo 3, suburban Texas, and Bronson Boulevard, all wealthy upscale areas.

The State Board of Education can be used as a measure of generic R and D vote since almost nobody is familiar with the candidates.  The two-party percentages are Trump 43.2%, SBOE 48.1%.

Trump underperformed Republicn SBOE candidates everywhere except Comstock and Lakewood.  He did especially poorly in Western Portage, southern Kalamazoo, Texas, Oshtemo, and Gull Lake (all wealthy upscale areas).

The following maps show how local Republicans did in Kalamazoo County.  Kalamazoo County Treasurer Mary Balkema led Republicans in Kalamazoo County with 54.7%.
The GOP average (President/Congress/Clerk/ Prosecutor/Sheriff/Treasurer) was 45.6%.
The Republican party continues to lose ground in the City of Kalamazoo.  The results in the city are
34.0% Balkema
31.7% Upton
32.1% Snow
27.4% SBOE
23.1% Trump
22.4% Smith
22.2% Heppler
The most R precinct was #4 (Knollwood).  I suspect this was due to Fraternity Village supporting Trump.

The City of Portage saw many voters split tickets.
59.4% Balkema
57.6% Upton 
56.2% Snow
52.4% SBOE
45.9% Trump
40.9% Smith 
39.1% Heppler

Oshtemo Township has moved left in recent years.  The top of the ticket was too much for local candidates to overcome.
52.1% Balkema
50.2% Upton 
48.9% Snow
46.8% SBOE
40.0% Trump
35.9% Smith 
35.7% Heppler

Oshtemo Township official candidates:
42% Nieuwenhuis
43% Solarek
40% Zondervan
49.3% Carr
44% Corakis
42% Lefler
42% Clem

Federal Judge Gershwin Drain extended straight ticket voting in Michigan after the legislature passed a law to eliminate it.  After the election, some observers claimed that straight ticket voting benefited Republicans since in some counties (e.g. Macomb) more Republicans voted straight ticket.

However, we don’t know what people would have done in its absence.  In Kalamazoo, more democrats voted straight ticket (33218) than Republicans (25159).  The following map shows which party had more straight ticket voters in each precinct.

Monday, January 09, 2017

How Trump Won Michigan

Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the 2016 presidential election was capped off by winning Michigan. The vote total was
Trump 2279543 (47.50%)
Clinton 2268893 (47.27%)
The margin was only 10704 votes. Michigan had the closest percentage margin of any state in the nation.

Analyzing the election results nationwide leads to four basic observations:
1. Trump won huge margins in rural areas.
2. Trump improved significantly in downscale (white working class) areas.
3. Trump did poorly in upscale (wealthy, highly educated) areas.
4. Clinton won blacks by large margins, but turnout was significantly down.

The following maps show Trump/Clinton and Romney/Obama by county.
Trump did significantly better than Romney in the rural Northeast and Midwest.  This allowed him to pick up five states (and Maine 2) in this region.  Trump did worse than Romney in many suburban counties.  The following map compares Trump and Romney’s performance by county.  More red means Trump performed better.
Zooming in to Michigan, we compare Romney 2012 and Trump 2016.
Trump overperformed in most rural counties, particularly in northern Michigan and the Thumb.  He underperformed in Kent, Ottawa, and Washtenaw counties.

To better understand Trump's performance, consider the following map of southern Michigan.  More red indicates a higher Trump percentage, and more blue/black indicates a higher Clinton percentage.  The key is
DarkRed >65%
Red 60-65
Salmon 55-60
Pink 50-55
LightBlue 45-50
DeepSkyBlue 40-45
CornflowerBlue 35-40
SlateBlue 30-35
Blue 25-30
DarkBlue 20-25
MidnightBlue 15-20
Black 0-15
Results are broken down to the precinct level, except in Wayne, Macomb, Ingham, Livingston, and Montcalm Counties, where they are broken down to the municipality.  All maps use 2-party totals.  Some results are approximate due to changes in precinct lines.
Rural areas are overwhelmingly red; cities are blue to black.

Let’s take a closer look at some key areas of the state, starting with Detroit.
Year – GOP (2-party %) and Dem (2-party %):
2000 – 15688 (5.22%), 282111 (93.88%)
2004 – 19343 (5.93%), 305258 (93.65%)
2008 –   8888 (2.65%), 325534 (96.99%)
2012 –   6018 (2.09%), 281743 (97.63%)
2016 –   7682 (3.11%), 234871 (94.95%)
The percentages are about the same, but D turnout was down 46872 votes in 2016.

Here is Wayne county, broken down by municipality.
Here are the numbers for Wayne outside Detroit.
Year – GOP (%) and Dem (%):
2000 – 207333 (45.5%), 248303 (54.5%)
2004 – 238407 (44.7%), 294789 (55.3%)
2008 – 210694 (38.6%), 334551 (61.4%)
2012 – 207796 (39.8%), 314103 (60.2%)
2016 – 221311 (43.7%), 284573 (56.3%)
Trump improved by 43045 votes in Wayne outside Detroit.  Trump gained in Downriver, a downscale union area.  Trump declined in upscale areas – the Grosse Pointes, and Plymouth/Northville.

Macomb County, by municipality:
   Year – GOP (%) and Dem (%):
2004 – 202166 (50.2%), 196160 (48.7%)
2008 – 187663 (44.8%), 223784 (53.4%)
2012 – 191913 (47.5%), 208016 (51.5%)
2016 – 224665 (53.6%), 176317 (42.1%)
Trump gained 64451 votes over 2012.  He improved substantially in the downscale union areas of the county.

Oakland County by precinct:
   Year – GOP (%) and Dem (%):
2004 – 316633 (49.3%), 319387 (49.8%)
2008 – 276956 (42.0%), 372566 (56.5%)
2012 – 296514 (45.4%), 349002 (53.4%)
2016 – 289203 (43.2%), 343070 (51.3%)
Trump lost upscale areas, including Bloomfield, West Bloomfield, Troy and Novi, where Republicans usually win.  He gained in Waterford.  The following compares Romney (2012) and Trump (2016).
Genesee County:
Year – GOP (%) and Dem (%):
2004 – 83870 (39.2%), 128334 (60.0%)
2008 – 72451 (32.9%), 143927 (65.5%)
2012 – 71808 (35.4%), 128978 (63.6%)
2016 – 84175 (42.9%), 102751 (52.4%)
Trump improved by 38594 votes over 2012.  Trump gained significantly in the downscale union-heavy suburbs of Flint.  He won Burton and the entire outer ring (except Grand Blanc).  Republicans came within 4% of picking up state house district 50 in the suburbs, which was completely unexpected.  Here is a closer look at Flint.
St. Clair:
Trump even won Port Huron.
Trump won everything except the minority areas.
In past elections, the city of Midland has been more Republican than the surrounding areas.  Not this time.
Ingham by municipality:
Southwest Michigan:
St. Joseph:
Van Buren:
Year – GOP (%) and Dem (%):
2004 – 171201 (59.1%), 116909 (40.4%)
2008 – 148336 (48.9%), 149909 (49.4%)
2012 – 155925 (53.2%), 133408 (45.5%)
2016 – 148180 (48.3%), 138683 (45.2%)
Trump declined by 13020 votes in Kent County.  He lost Kentwood and did poorly in Wyoming.
 Year – GOP (%) and Dem (%):
2004 – 92048 (71.6%), 35552 (27.6%)
2008 – 83330 (61.2%), 50828 (37.3%)
2012 – 88166 (66.6%), 42737 (32.3%)
2016 – 88467 (62.3%), 44973 (31.7%)

Ottawa County is usually the most Republican in Michigan.  Why did Trump decline in Kent and Ottawa?  Ottawa, Kent, Allegan, and Missaukee are the only Dutch majority counties.  Dutch Americans tend to be Calvinists (Reformed/CRC) and solid Republicans.

Consider this list of Trump's best counties in 2016.
73.8% Missaukee
70.9% Hillsdale 
70.0% Oscoda
69.9% Sanilac
69.8% Montmorency
69.3% Kalkaska
69.2% Osceola
68.2% Luce
68.0% Alcona
67.2% Huron
67.1% Newaygo
66.8% Branch
66.6% Lapeer
66.4% Tuscola
66.0% Otsego
65.7% Ogemaw
65.4% Wexford
65.3% Dickinson
65.1% Gladwin
64.3% Arenac

Ottawa County dropped to number 32!  Livingston dropped to 34 and Allegan to 48!
Twelve of Trump’s 20 best counties are in the northern lower peninsula.  Four of the top 14 are in the Thumb.  Two (Luce, Dickinson) are in the UP.  Two (Hillsdale, Branch) are on the IN border.  Trump got 60-70% in 43 of 83 Michigan counties.  He got 50-60% in 23 counties.  These are almost all rural areas.

I have explained where Trump got his votes, but not how he got them.  Trump appealed to rural and working class voters with immigration restriction, opposition to free trade agreements, and concern for manufacturing jobs.  These voters were alienated from the democrats due to social justice warriors and environmentalism.

Bernie Sanders’ primary win in Michigan foreshadowed trouble for Hillary.  Rural democrats are not primarily socialists.  Many were clearly disenchanted with Hillary.

Why did Trump do better than Romney, who had a somewhat similar profile (rich businessman, Washington outsider)?  Rick Snyder won Michigan in 2010 on a similar platform.  Republican Michigander writes:
“The other thing that helped Snyder is that while he was a businessman, he ran as a CEO of Gateway. People remember Gateway Computers. That’s a difference with your venture capitalist types who are widely distrusted (with Dan Gilbert a major exception due to his Detroit investments and building). The Midwest respects builders. You’ll hear a different opinion of George Romney than Mitt. Builders built America and builders built Michigan. This is the land of Henry Ford, Roger Penske, Ransom Olds, Mike Illitch, Louis Chevrolet, Pete Karmanos, Fred Meijer, Tom Monaghan, and the Dodge brothers. It’s the cornerstone of this state and one of the rare things that can take root in the very different political factions in this state that are extremely tough to unite. It’s something our pols should remember in 2020 before either putting a bunch of money here, or before writing off altogether. The most important thing here is the job itself and the ability to do it.”
This obviously applies to Trump as well.

Trump’s winning coalition was laid out by several commentators.  Steve Sailer wrote after the 2000 election,
“The reason George W. Bush struggled so much to eke out a 271-267 win in the Electoral College … is not that he got crushed in the minority vote 77% to 21%. No, it`s that he commanded only a measly 54% of the white vote. …
What if Bush II had won 57% of the white vote? … he would have cruised to an Electoral College landslide of 367 to 171. …
So where could Bush have picked up an additional 3 percent of the white vote? The most obvious source: white union families. …
Immigration should be the perfect issue for the GOP to use to split the rank and file from their Democratic bosses.  Since union efforts cost Bush Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (at a minimum), you`d think that the GOP would be hot to win back the Reagan Democrats.”
 After the 2012 election, he wrote
“Romney could have won the Electoral College in what can be called the Big Ten states … He did win Indiana, and he lost Obama’s home state of Illinois badly. The other six states in this region, however, all slipped through his fingers: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
In each of these Slippery Six states, Romney won at least 45 percent of the vote. … If Romney, rather than Obama, had won all six, he’d be President. …
According to Reuters, Romney lost the Slippery Six states because … he did badly there among white voters—winning only 52 percent, six points worse than nationally. …
But, how much did Romney offer working class whites in this swing region? Did they have much cause for hope that he’d take a strong stand against legal and illegal immigration?”
“These voters were largely downscale, Northern, rural whites. In other words, H. Ross Perot voters.” 
“One option is to go after these downscale whites. … It means abandoning some of its more pro-corporate stances. This GOP would have to be more "America first" on trade, immigration and foreign policy; less pro-Wall Street and big business in its rhetoric; more Main Street/populist on economics.”
Demographics are the biggest factor affecting election results.  For example, some areas have voted for the same party since the Civil War, until very recently.  Dutch Americans have voted conservatively since immigrating here.  Often, changes in election results are the results of demographic changes rather than ideological changes.

Demographic groups can change voting patterns (e.g. downscale whites going for Trump), but such changes are neither easy nor inevitable.  Democrats have been using immigration from left-leaning groups to bring about electoral victories they could not win by persuasion.  Trump and his supporters need to stop this for conservatism to remain viable in America.

Donald Trump is now the face of the Republican party.  His supporters should do what they can to encourage him to adopt sound conservative policies.  There are no permanent majorities.  Republicans should be careful not to overreach (as Obama did with Obamacare).  Conversely, Republicans should accomplish what they can while the opportunity exists, as democrats will come back sooner or later.

Republicans should welcome Trump’s downscale supporters into the party and try to address their concerns on trade and immigration while upholding conservative values.  Upscale voters were likely alienated by Trump’s rhetoric and character.  If Trump is successful, many will come back.  We should run candidates who emphasize competence to appeal to this demographic.

Thursday, November 24, 2016

2016 Analysis: Kalamazoo

Donald Trump won Michigan by winning big margins among white working class voters.  That didn't help Republicans in Kalamazoo County, which has a highly educated populace.

Trump got 40.4% versus Clinton's 53.2%.  That's worse than Mitt Romney's 42.9%, which was pretty bad itself.  Trump did well in many rural townships, but got only 40% in Oshtemo, 33% in K Township, 23% in Kalamazoo, and 46% in Portage.  Trump won only three county commission districts (6, 7, and 8 in the east) and won only four precincts in Portage.  That hurt Republicans downticket.

Out of 128233 votes, Ds got 33218 straight ticket votes, and Rs got 25159.  Straight ticket votes likely hurt Republicans, though we cannot know what voters would have done in its absence.

Fred Upton got 49.4% to Paul Clements' 44.8%.  That's a slight improvement on his 50-46 victory in 2014.  "Libertarian" Lorence Wenke got 5.7%, racking up his fifth straight loss.

Ds won the education board races in Kalamazoo by narrower margins with one exception.  Ron Weiser squeaked into the second spot for U of M board.

Jon Hoadley was reelected 69-25.  Brandt Iden was reelected 49.4-44.7 in a district where Trump got 47.7% (2 party).  David Maturen got 58.6% in the Kalamazoo portion of his district.  Beth Griffin got 56% in the Kalamazoo portion of her district.

All incumbent countywide officials were reelected.  The results are:
Prosecutor: 38-62  Don Smith lost to Jeff Getting.
Sheriff: 38-62 Jeff Heppler lost to Richard Fuller.
Clerk: 52.2-47.8  Tim Snow defeated John Taylor.  2012 was even closer.
Treasurer: 55-45  Mary Balkema defeated Sunny Sahu
Pat Crowley (D drain commissioner) and Gary Hahn (R surveyor) were unopposed.  Voters evidently didn't see much reason to toss any incumbents.  Republicans need to do a better job publicizing the missteps of the D incumbents.

County commission results:
1. 19-81 Salvano loses to Moore.
2. 28-72 Fawley loses to Wordelman
3. 30-70 Coss loses to Hall
4. Seals unopposed
5. 44-56 Dillon loses to Rogers
6. Kendall got 77% against a libertarian.
7. 57-43 Tuinier defeats Clark
8. Gisler unopposed
9. 55-45 Shugars defeats Adams
10. 49.8-50.2 Whitaker loses to Quinn.  Inexcusable.
11. 52.5-47.5 McGraw defeats Foster.  Too close for comfort.
Unfortunately, Republicans will again be in the minority on the county commission.  Trump lost Portage, and R results in Portage were weak.

In Comstock Township, where Trump won 52% (2 party), Sandra Bloomfield lost a squeaker with 49.7% to former trustee Randy Thompson.  Michelle Mohney won 62% in the clerk race.  Republicans Amos, McIver, and Austin won for trustee along with D Pratt.

In Oshtemo Township, where Trump won 40% (2 party), John Nieuwenhuis lost 42-58 against Libby Heiny-Cogswell.  Solarek lost to Farmer 43-57 for clerk.  Zondervan lost to Culp 40-60.  Ds Everett (61%), Bushouse (58%), Ford (54%), and Hudok (49.6%) beat Rs Carr (49.3%), Corakis (44%), Lefler (42%), and Clem (42%).  The former Republicans Everett and Bushouse did best.  The R candidates tried to get the word out about the Ds mismanagement, but the top of the ticket was too much to overcome.  The preservation of straight ticket voting likely hurt Rs here.

It is still possible for Kalamazoo candidates to overcome the top of the ticket, but it takes a high quality campaign.  Republicans need to do a better job publicizing the misdeeds of local democrats and explaining the consequences of people's votes in local elections.  It may help if straight ticket voting is eventually eliminated.

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Michigan Election Results

Trump 47.6 Clinton 47.3

Supreme Court:
67-23 for Viviano
59-28 for Larsen

Education Boards:
SBOE:  McMillin and Snyder win, pulling Rs into a 4-4 tie.  Big loss for D bathroom policy.
UofM:  Weiser wins, Illich second.  Now 3R, 5D.
MSU:  Kelly and Byrum win.  Now 4-4 tie.
WSU:  Gaffney and Busito win Now 3R, 5D.

1. 55-40 for Bergman over Johnson. Big win in a race many pundits called a tossup.
2. 63-32 for Huizinga
3. 59-38 for Amash
4. 62-32 for Moolenaar
5. 35-61 Kildee
6. 59-36 Upton over Clements. Wenke got 5%.
7. 55-40 Walberg over Driskell. Big win in a race Ds fought for.
8. 56-39 Bishop. Secure.
9. 37-58 for Sander Levin
10. 63-32 for Paul Mitchell
11. 53-40 for Trott.  Surprisingly, this was the closest congressional race.
12. 29-64 for Debbie Dingell
13. 16-77 for Conyers
14. 19-79 for Lawrence

 State House:
17. 52-44 for Bellino over Lavoy. Shocking upset and PICKUP.
20. 56-44 for Noble.  Big conservative win.
23. 49.7-50.3 Camilleri beats Howey.  Tough LOSS in a tough district.
24. 55-45 for Marino. The tapes didn’t matter.
30. 54-46 for Farrington
39. 50-42 for Kesto
40. 53-47 for McCready. Close call in an upscale district.
41. 56-44 for Howrylak
50. 48-52 for Sneller. This wasn’t even on the radar.  Trump did well here.
52. 45-52 Lasinski wins.  Not that close, but this might have been won with a stronger candidate.
57. 56-44 for Kahle
61. 49-45 for Iden. Iden seriously underperformed.
62. 48.0-47.5 Bizon wins a very tough district.
66. 54-46 for Griffin
71. 54-43 for Barrett
85. 56-34 for Frederick. Locked down early.
91. 49-44 for Hughes
99. 55-45 for Hauck
101. 54-46 for VanderWall
104. 51-43 for Inman
106. 61-35 for Allor over sign-stealing Kennedy.
108. 53-47 for LaFave. Dems top recruit loses.

Macomb: Candace Miller wins public works. Rs win Treasurer and Clerk narrowly.
Oakland: Incumbents win, including Patterson and Bouchard.
Kalamazoo:  All incumbents win.
The metro Detroit transit millage failed.

Friday, October 28, 2016

2016 Michigan Pre-General State House Fundraising Reports

October 28 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Here are summaries of the total amounts raised (with cash on hand) in competitive general elections for Michigan state house.  XX means the report has yet to be filed.

17. (Safe D) (R) Bellino 53K (-4K) (D) LaVoy 54K (8K)
20. (Lean R) (R) Noble 81K (15K) (D) Pubur 83K (42K)
23. (Tossup/Tilt R) (R) Howey 194K (71K) (D) Camilleri 177K (37K)
24. (Tossup/Tilt R) (R) Marino 147K (18K) (D) Peterson 156K (39K)
30. (Tossup/Tilt R) (R) Farrington 282K (25K) (D) Notte 134K (45K)
39. (Lean R) (R) Kesto 300K (57K) (D) Stack 72K (22K)
41. (Likely R) (R) Howrylak 109K (39K) (D) Peltonon 18K (5K)
52. (Safe D) (R) Clark 30K ($263) (D) Lasinski 213K (53K)
56. (Lean R) (R) Sheppard 271K (64K) (D) Redmond 48K (16K)
57. (Lean R) (R) Kahle 207K (38K) (D) Schmidt 162K (42K)
61. (Lean R) (R) Iden 336K (93K) (D) Fisher 254K (11K)
62. (Tossup/Tilt R) (R) Bizon 198K (106K) (D) Haadsma 280K (60K)
64. (Likely R) (R) Alexander 170K (40K) (D) Brooks 24K (-2K)
66. (Lean R) (R) Griffin 333K (60K) (D) Brown 292K (72K)
71. (Tossup/Tilt R) (R) Barrett 231K (68K) (D) Abed 327K (34K)
76. (Safe D) (R) O'Neill 49K (6K) (D) Brinks 121K (64K)
79. (Likely R) (R) LaSata 72K (24K) (D) Seats 15K (6K)
83. (Safe R) (R) Hernandez 61K (6K) (D) Frank 21K (11K)
85. (Likely R) (R) Frederick 172K (34K) (D) Karhoff 22K (-1K)
91. (Tossup/Tilt D) (R) Hughes 364K (111K) (D) Lamonte 449K (46K)
97. (Safe R) (R) Wentworth 75K (2K) (D) Townsend XX
98. (Safe R) (R) Glenn 195K (82K) (D) Malicoat 27K (1K)
99. (Tossup/Tilt D) (R) Hauck 229K (55K) (D) Mielke 370K (53K)
101. (Lean D) (R) VanderWall 130K (78K) (D) Scripps 435K (26K)
103. (Likely R) (R) Rendon 116K (40K) (D) Stancil 44K (3K)
104. (Lean R) (R) Inman 142K (8K) (D) Coffia 62K (24K)
106. (Tossup/Tilt R) (R) Allor 173K (17K) (D) Kennedy 72K (35K)
108. (Tossup/Tilt R) (R) Lafave 88K (7K) (D) Celello 289K (60K)

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Phyllis Schlafly, RIP

Phyllis Schlafly, one of the founders of the modern American conservative movement, has died.

She was a delegate to numerous Republican conventions. She wrote many books on topics including education, feminism, national defense, and judicial activism; her total sales are several million. She led the movement to defeat the Equal Rights Amendment, the chief goal of the feminist movement. She founded and still led Eagle Forum, a conservative organization focusing on national sovereignty, immigration reform, education, and traditional values. Schlafly wrote a weekly column and a monthly newsletter.

I met Schlafly when she spoke at Kalamazoo College in 2007.  The following article summarized that event.

Phyllis Schlafly Speech

2016 Michigan State House Races

Last updated October 28, 2016.

Cross-posted at The Western RightRight Michigan, and Red Racing Horses.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans won a 63-47 majority in 2014, picking up four seats (62, 71, 84, 91), up from 59-41 after 2012. There are 42 open seats, 27 held by Republicans and 15 held by democrats. There are 41 open due to term-limits and one (Gretchen Driskell) just seeking another office.

Democrats are hoping to take back the state house. They will benefit from higher turnout in a presidential year and possibly coattails from the presidential race. They will try to take advantage of Republican support for a tax increase for roads and Governor Snyder's handling of the Flint water crisis, though state house candidates had nothing to do with the latter.

There are also many Republican seats first won in 2010 that are now term-limited.  Democrats are targeting several Republican incumbents, including 61, 62, 71, 91, and a number of open seats.

State house fundraising is analyzed in this article.

2016 Unofficial Michigan Primary Candidate Listing

The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012 and 2014 state house results, 2012 Romney %, and political rating.

1. (Brian Banks) [Detroit] 29-71, 31-69, 23.5%, Safe D Brian Banks won the 2012 primary before his long criminal record and ethical issues were exposed. He won a 2014 primary against divided opposition. This year, he again won the primary over divided opposition, and also faces new felony charges.
2. (OPEN-Alberta Tinsley Talibi) [Detroit] 26-72, 33-67, 23.8%, Safe D
3. (Wendell Byrd) [Detroit] 3-96, 3-97, 1.6%, Safe D
4. (Rose Robinson) [Detroit] 5-95, 5-95, 3.4%, Safe D
5. (Fred Durhal III) [Detroit] 6-94, 5-95, 2.7%, Safe D
6. (Stephanie Chang) [Detroit] 5-92, 6-94, 5.3%, Safe D
7. (LaTanya Garrett) [Detroit] 2-98, 2-98, 0.9%, Safe D
8. (Sherry Gay-Dagnogo) [Detroit] 3-97, 3-97, 2%, Safe D
9. (OPEN-Harvey Santana) [Detroit] 5-95, 4-96, 3.3%, Safe D
10. (Leslie Love) [Detroit] 14-86, 18-82, 16.4%, Safe D
11. (OPEN-Julie Plawecki) [Inkster, Garden City] 28-72, 30-70, 29.3%, Safe D This seat is open after Julie Plawecki's sudden death. Party insiders picked Inkster Councilman Jewell Jones for the full term.
12. (Erika Geiss) [Taylor, Romulus] 25-75, 30-70, 29.5%, Safe D
13. (Frank Liberati) [Southgate, Allen Park, Dearborn Heights] 35-65, 39-61, 40.3%, Safe D
14. (OPEN-Paul Clemente) [Riverview, Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, Melvindale] 26-71, 30-70, 34.9%, Safe D
15. (OPEN-George Darany) [Dearborn] 25-75, 32-68, 33.5%, Safe D
16. (Robert Kosowski) [Westland, Wayne] 28-68, 32-68, 33.3%, Safe D
17. (Bill Lavoy) [N Monroe, Sumpter, Huron] 39-61, 40-60, 45.3%, Safe D Republican Joseph Bellino has raised a decent amount of money, but running against a two-term incumbent in this environment is too high a hill to climb. He can be a strong candidate when the seat is open in 2018.
18. (OPEN-Sarah Roberts) [St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe] 34-64, 38-62, 40.7%, Safe D
19. (Laura Cox) [Livonia] 60-40, 62-38, 52%, Safe R
20. (OPEN-Kurt Heise) [Plymouth, Northville] 56-44, 60-40, 51.8%, Lean R Pastor Jeff Noble won an upset in the R primary with Tea Party support. He faces D Colleen Pobur in this somewhat moderate district.
21. (Kristy Pagan) [Canton, Van Buren] 38-62, 45-55, 43.3%, Safe D
22. (John Chirkun) [Roseville, E Warren] 30-70, 32-64, 36.2%, Safe D
23. (OPEN-Pat Somerville) [SE Wayne] 50.5-49.5, 52.1-47.9, 47.5%, Tossup (Tilt R) Pat Somerville won three close victories in this seat, which is the top D target. R Trenton Councilman Bob Howey has fundraised well. He faces Parks commissioner Darin Calmilleri, who won a tough D primary.
24. (OPEN-Anthony Forlini) [Harrison, N Clinton, SW Macomb] 54.7-45.3, 59-39, Tossup (Tilt R) R Macomb County Commissioner Steve Marino was embarrassed by recordings of him making false claims about his lobbying. He faces D Dana Camphous-Peterson, who has fundraised well.
25. (Henry Yanez) [E Sterling Heights, NC Warren] 48.6-51.4, 46.5-53.5, 47.8%, Safe D
26. (OPEN-Jim Townsend) [Royal Oak, Madison Heights] 36-60, 39-61, 40.3%, Safe D
27. (Robert Whittenberg) [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park] 20-76, 24-76, 24.8%, Safe D
28. (OPEN-Derek Miller) [W Warren, Center Line] 21-79, 36-64, 35.8%, Safe D
29. (Tim Greimel) [Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Orchard Lake] 23-77, 26-74, 23.9%, Safe D
30. (OPEN-Jeff Farrington) [W Sterling Heights, Utica, SE Shelby] 53.3-46.7, 55-45, 51.5%, Tossup (Tilt R) Diana Farrington, wife of the incumbent, won an unexpectedly close R primary. She faces D Michael Notte, son of the former Mayor of Sterling Heights. MIRS rates this district most likely to flip.
31. (OPEN-Marilyn Lane) [S Clinton, Fraser, Mt. Clemens] 34-62, 39-61, 41.8%, Safe D
32. (OPEN-Andrea LaFontaine) [Chesterfield, C St. Clair] 59-41, 62-38, 53.9%, Safe R School board treasurer Pamela Hornberger won the R primary in the seat.
33. (OPEN-Ken Goike) [NE Macomb, Macomb Twp.] 62-38, 66-34, 56.2%, Safe R City councilman Jeff Yaroch won the R primary in this seat.
34. (Sheldon Neeley) [Flint] 13-87, 9-91, 8.3%, Safe D
35. (Jeremy Moss) [Southfield] 17-83, 17-83, 17.6%, Safe D
36. (Peter Lucido) [Shelby, Washington, Bruce] 64-36, 70-30, 61%, Safe R
37. (Kristine Greig) [Farmington] 38-62, 43-57, 40.3%, Safe D
38. (Kathy Crawford) [Novi, Lyon] 59-41, 63-37, 53.6%, Safe R
39. (Klint Kesto) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom] 53.3-46.7, 52.3-47.7, 51.5%, Lean R Kesto has a large cash advantage over D Michael Stack, but the district is closely divided.
40. (Michael McCready) [Bloomfield, Birmingham, E West Bloomfield] 57-41, 58-42, 52.8%, Safe R
41. (Martin Howrylak) [Troy, Clawson] 50.5-49.5, 56-44, 51.6%, Likely R D Cyndi Peltonen hasn't raised much money, but Howrylak had a close call in 2012.
42. (Lana Theis) [SE Livingston] 63-33, 65-35, 60.2%, Safe R
43. (Jim Tedder) [Waterford, Independence] 66-34, 58-42, 54.8%, Safe R
44. (Jim Runestad) [Springfield, White Lake, Highland, Milford] 63-33, 68-32, 59.1%, Safe R
45. (Michael Webber) [Rochester, S Oakland Twp] 56-44, 56-44, 55.9%, Safe R
46. (OPEN-Bradford Jacobsen) [NE Oakland] 64-36, 69-31, 60.1%, Safe R Bradford Jacobsen narrowly beat back a primary challenge 54-46 from John Reilly in 2014. This time, Reilly (AC) beat Joe Kent (E) by 31 votes.
47. (Henry Vaupel) [N Livingston] 64-32, 69-27, 62.5%, Safe R
48. (Pam Faris) [NE Genesee] 36-64, 38-62, 39.8%, Safe D
49. (Phil Phelps) [Flint Twp., Mt. Morris, SW Flint] 25-75, 26-74, 28.8%, Safe D
50. (OPEN-Charles Smiley) [Burton, Grand Blanc, Mundy] 39-61, 41-59, 42.7%, Safe D
51. (Joe Graves) [W Genesee, Fenton, NW Oakland] 54.3-45.7, 58-42, 53.1%, Safe R
52. (OPEN-Gretchen Driskell) [W Washtenaw] 47-53, 44-56, 47.5%, Safe D This seat is open since Driskell, who beat an incumbent R in 2012, is running for Congress. School board treasurer Donna Lasinski, who had chamber of commerce support, won the D primary.
53. (OPEN-Jeff Irwin) [Ann Arbor] 19-81, 18-82, 19.5%, Safe D
54. (OPEN-David Rutledge) [Ypsilanti] 23-77, 25-75, 23.8%, Safe D
55. (Adam Zemke) [Pittsfield, NE Ann Arbor, York, Augusta] 32-65, 32-68, 31.6%, Safe D
56. (Jason Sheppard) [S Monroe] 58-42, 50.3-47.1, 50.6%, Lean R Jason Sheppard narrowly beat Tom Redmond in 2014 and faces a rematch in 2016.
57. (OPEN-Nancy Jenkins) [Lenawee] 52.5-47.5, 59-41, 49.9%, Lean R Senior center director Bronna Khale easily won the R primary. She faces D Harvey Schmidt.
58. (Eric Leutheuser) [Branch, Hillsdale] 70-30, 71-29, 60.1%, Safe R
59. (Aaron Miller) [St. Joseph, E Cass] 62-38, 62-38, 54.7%, Safe R
60. (Jon Hoadley) [Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp.] 26-74, 30-70, 26.8%, Safe D
61. (Brandt Iden) [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] 58-42, 48.4-42.7, 49.1%, Lean R Iden, who hurt himself by lying about a DUI in 2014, has been attacked for his support of Trump (he was a national delegate) but got good PR for his mass shooting alert bill. He faces a rematch with liberal pastor John Fisher.
62. (John Bizon) [Battle Creek, Albion, N Calhoun] 42-58, 51.2-48.8, 43.8%, Tossup (Tilt R) Dr. Bizon has a large base and great fundraising. He faces D Calhoun County Commissioner Jim Haadsma in the most D house district held by an R.
63. (David Maturen) [E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun] 50.9-49.1, 56-44, 54.6%, Safe R
64. (OPEN-Earl Poleski) [Jackson city, W Jackson] 56-44, 61-39, 51.2%, Likely R Jackson County Commissioner Julie Alexander won the R primary. She faces D Ron Brooks, who has not raised much.
65. (Brett Roberts) [N Jackson, SE Eaton] 57-43, 57-40, 53.4%, Safe R
66. (OPEN-Aric Nesbitt) [Van Buren, Cooper, Alamo, Parchment] 59-41, 57-43, 49.7%, Lean R Van Buren County Commissioner Beth Griffin easily won the R primary. She faces D school board member Annie Brown, who lost to Nesbitt in 2014.
67. (Tom Cochran) [S Ingham] 44-56, 46-54, 44.8%, Safe D
68. (Andy Schor) [Lansing] 23-77, 23-77, 24.6%, Safe D
69. (Sam Singh) [East Lansing, Meridian] 35-65, 32-68, 35.9%, Safe D
70. (OPEN-Rick Outman) [Montcalm, N Gratiot] 54.5-45.5, 62-38, 52.6%, Safe R Former county commissioner James Lower won the R primary.
71. (Tom Barrett) [Eaton] 46.6-53.4, 50.4-49.6, 47.3%, Tossup (Tilt R) Tom Barrett beat dem state rep. Theresa Abed in 2014. She is back for a rematch in 2016.
72. (OPEN-Ken Yonker) [Kentwood, Gaines, NE Allegan] 59-38, 68-32, 56.3%, Safe R Unemployed 25-year-old military veteran Steven Johnson won a shocking upset in the R primary.
73. (Chris Afendoulis) [Grand Rapids Twp, Plainfield, NE Kent] 64-32, 68-32, 60.9%, Safe R
74. (Rob Verhuelen) [Grandville, Walker, Alpine, NW Kent] 66-34, 69-31, 60.4%, Safe R
75. (Dave LaGrand) [central Grand Rapids] 24-76, 26-74, 23.8%, Safe D
76. (Winnie Brinks) [peripheral Grand Rapids] 39-52, 45.6-52.1, 44.2%, Safe D Republican Casey O'Neill has fundraised well, but running against a two-term incumbent in this environment is too high a hill to climb. Rs will have a better chance when the seat is open in 2018.
77. (OPEN-Thomas Hooker) [Wyoming, Byron] 60-36, 67-33, 58.3%, Safe R Restaurant owner Tommy Brann won the R primary overwhelmingly.
78. (Dave Pagel) [S Berrien, SW Cass] 61-39, 67-33, 56.1%, Safe R
79. (OPEN-Al Pscholka) [N Berrien] 52.8-45.7, 59-39, 51.5%, Likely R Teacher Kim LaSata, wife of former rep (1998-2004) Charles LaSata, won the R primary.
80. (Mary Whiteford) [Allegan] 62-38, 63-34, 57.6%, Safe R Mary Whiteford won a special election in March 2016 to replace expelled rep. Cindy Gamrat.
81. (Dan Lauwers) [NW, E St. Clair] 53.8-46.2, 65-35, 55%, Safe R
82. (Gary Howell) [Lapeer] 59-41, 55-45, 55.1%, Safe R
83. (OPEN-Paul Muxlow) [Sanilac, Port Huron] 56-44, 62-38, 52.5%, Safe R Conservative activist Shane Hernandez won the R primary.
84. (Edward Canfield) [Tuscola, Huron] 38-53, 59-41, 53-43, 55.6%, Safe R
85. (OPEN-Ben Glardon) [Shiawassee, W Saginaw] 54-40, 53-43, 48.9%, Likely R Owosso Mayor Ben Frederick fundraised well and easily won the R primary. He faces D Anthony Karhoff, who has not fundraised well.
86. (OPEN-Lisa Posthumus Lyons) [SE Kent, N Ionia] 70-30, 66-34, 63%, Safe R Marine Thomas Albert won the close R primary.
87. (OPEN-Mike Callton) [Barry, S Ionia] 62-35, 67-33, 58.7%, Safe R Ionia County Commissioner Julie Calley, wife of LG Brian Calley, was unopposed in the R primary.
88. (Roger Victory) [NE Ottawa] 87-0, 80-20, 72.9%, Safe R
89. (OPEN-Amanda Price) [W Ottawa] 66-34, 68-32, 61.6%, Safe R Banker Jim Lilly easily won the R primary.
90. (Daniela Garcia) [Holland] 100-0, 78-22, 66.5%, Safe R
91. (Holly Hughes) [S, W Muskegon] 47.3-48.1, 46.5-46.3, 48.5%, Tossup (Tilt D) Holly Hughes defeated dem state rep. Colleen LaMonte in 2014, who defeated her in 2012. LaMonte is back for a rematch in 2016.
92. (OPEN-Marcia Hovey Wright) [Muskegon city] 27-73, 33-67, 31.3%, Safe D
93. (Tom Leonard) [S Gratiot, Clinton] 57-43, 56-35, 52.9%, Safe R
94. (Tim Kelly) [Saginaw Twp, E Saginaw] 56-44, 62-38, 55.7%, Safe R
95. (Vanessa Guerra) [Saginaw city] 22-78, 24-76, 24.8%, Safe D
96. (OPEN-Charles Brunner) [Bay] 31-69, 32-68, 45.3%, Safe D Former county commissioner Brian Elder, who is pro-life, won the D primary.
97. (OPEN-Joel Johnson) [Arenac, Gladwin, Clare, E Osceola] 62-38, 63-37, 53.2%, Safe R Veteran Jason Wentworth won the R primary easily. The D candidate has effectively dropped out.
98. (Gary Glenn) [C Midland, N Bay] 59-41, 55-45, 56%, Safe R
99. (OPEN-Kevin Cotter) [Isabella, W Midland] 57-43, 51.5-48.5, 48.1%, Tossup (Tilt D) Township Trustee Roger Hauck easily won the R primary, but has struggled in fundraising. D Bryan Mielke is running again after coming close in 2014 against Speaker Cotter.
100. (OPEN-Jon Bumstead) [Newaygo, Oceana, Lake] 62-38, 63-37, 55.5%, Safe R Accountant/businessman Scott VanSingel easily won the R primary.
101. (OPEN-Ray Franz) [Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Mason] 51-49, 50.4-49.6, 50.7%, Lean D Mason county commissioner Curt VanderWall easily won the R primary. He faces D former state rep Dan Scripps (2008-2010), who has raised significantly more.
102. (OPEN-Phil Potvin) [Wexford, W Osceola, Mecosta] 54.8-45.2, 60-40, 56.3%, Safe R Manton Mayor Michelle Hoitenga won a close R primary.
103. (OPEN-Bruce Rendon) [Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw] 52.8-47.2, 60-34, 55.9%, Likely R Daire Rendon, wife of the incumbent, easily won the R primary. She faces D Jordan Stancil.
104. (Larry Inman) [Grand Traverse] 57-43, 53.2-46.8, 55.4%, Lean R Inman, who won the Republican primary in 2014 with 21%, beat back a primary challenge this time. He faces D Betsy Coffia.
105. (Triston Cole) [Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda] 67-33, 63-37, 58.5%, Safe R
106. (OPEN-Peter Petallia) [E Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco] 52.2-45.3, 55-45, 53.6%, Tossup (Tilt R) Cheboygan County Commissioner Sue Allor won the R primary. She faces Robert Kennedy, who upset the preferred D candidate. A MIRS poll has Kennedy leading.
107. (Lee Chatfield) [Emmet, Mackinac, Chippewa, N Cheboygan] 58-42, 61-39, 55.5%, Safe R
108. (OPEN-Ed McBroom) [Delta, Menominee, Dickinson] 54.6-45.4, 60-40, 54.6%, Tossup/Tilt R Beau LaFave won the R primary. He faces Sheriff Scott Celello, won is highly touted by dems, but underperformed in the D primary.
109. (John Kivela) [Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, Luce] 42-58, 34-66, 45.4%, Safe D
110. (Scott Dianda) [W Upper Peninsula] 48.4-51.6, 39-61, 51.6%,

Safe D Ratings:
Safe D: 47
Lean D: 1 (101)
Tossup (Tilt D): 2 (91, 99)
Tossup (Tilt R): 7 (23, 24, 30, 62, 71, 106, 108)
Lean R: 7 (20, 39, 56, 57, 61, 64, 104)
Likely R: 5 (41, 64, 79, 85, 103)
Safe R: 41