Sunday, September 06, 2020

Voter Fraud: Now We Have Proof

For a long time, those of us on the right have suspected that voter fraud is widespread on the left.  There have been plenty of isolated cases where fraud has been proved, but these were usually small or amateurish.  This allowed democrats to claim that voter fraud was rare and oppose measures to secure elections, branding them 'voter suppression'.

That all changed a week ago with the publication of a bombshell article in the New York Post.

Confessions of a voter fraud: I was a master at fixing mail-in ballots

A democrat operative from New Jersey, speaking anonymously, has exposed the democrats' operation.  They collect ballots from unsuspecting voters (ballot harvesting), then steam open the envelopes, and replace the ballots with copies they have filled in.  Postal employees can also collect ballots from the mail do the same thing, or just destroy them.  Nursing home employees can also "help" the elderly fill out ballots.  Homeless people can be bribed to vote their way.

The right has focused most on voter impersonation, while mail vote fraud has always been a bigger threat.  Nonetheless, impersonation is also one of their tactics.

So what can we do?  The most secure way to vote is in person.  If you can't vote in person, fill out your absentee ballot and bring it to your local clerk yourself.  You absolutely should not trust anyone you don't know (including postal employees) with your ballot.  Then make sure your friends know this as well.

Monday, August 31, 2020

September 2020 Judiciary News

Judiciary news continues to roll in.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Trump list:  As we wait for President Trump's updated Supreme Court list, John Malcolm and Zack Smith of the Heritage Foundation and Ilya Shapiro of the Cato Institute have made recommendations for who he should add.

Future appointments:  Harsh Voruganti of the Vetting Room lists thirteen federal judges Donald Trump and Joe Biden might elevate to the Court of Appeals.  The contrast is stark.

Court packing:  The democrat party included a plank in its party platform calling for
“structural court reforms” to counter what they call Trump's “unqualified, partisan judges.”  The Biden campaign signed off on the plank.  The platform does not specify what these 'reforms' would be, but it seems likely to include court packing, adding new seats that would be filled with leftists.

Legislative filibuster:  Court packing would depend on eliminating the legislative filibuster.  Support for this has been building on the left and among senate Ds.  Joe Biden has signaled openness, but has not formally endorsed the idea.  A few senate Ds say they are opposed, though it remains to be seen whether this opposition is real.

Roe v. Wade:  Senator Josh Hawley has argued that future Supreme Court nominees should be on the record saying that Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided.  Ed Whelan argues that this is a flawed test, as some liberals have acknowledged that Roe was wrongly decided and some conservative judges had not said this.  He suggests a different approach for pro-life senators.

New Nominations:
Court of Federal Claims: Zachary Somers--staffer for Senate Judiciary Committee

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:
TBD

Confirmations:
TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Judicial winning:  Carrie Severino of the Judicial Crisis Network is writing a series highlighting Trump's conservative judicial appointees.  The series so far includes Kyle Duncan, Amul Thapar, Ken Lee, Lisa Branch, Amy Coney Barrett, Greg Katsas, and Justin Walker.

9th Circuit:  Judge Jerome Farris passed away on July 23.  He was appointed by President Carter in 1979 and took senior status in 1995 on his 65th birthday.  He was the first black judge on the 9th Circuit.

DC Circuit:  Judge Stephen F. Williams passed away on August 7 due to the coronavirus.  He was appointed by President Reagan in 1986 and took senior status in 2001.  He was one of eight Reagan appointees to the DC Circuit.

D-ID:  Judge David Nye issued an injunction against an Idaho law declaring that women's sports not allow men.  Nye is a Trump appointee who was previously nominated by President Obama, but not confirmed.

D-ME:  Has Trump-appointed Judge Lance Walker betrayed conservatives?  This article tries to argue this, but most of the examples cited are not ideologically clear-cut.

State Supreme Courts:

States:  Harsh Voruganti argues that D governors appoint judges who are older and less involved in legal activism than R governors.

Florida:  The Florida Supreme Court ruled that Governor DeSantis' appointment of Renatha Francis to the court was not allowed by the law, since she did not have ten years of legal experience by the deadline to make the appointment.  The ruling was 5-0, with recently-appointed Justice John Couriel recused.  The suit was filed by state rep Geraldine Thompson, a black D who wanted one of the more liberal black applicants screened out by the Judicial Nominating Commission to be appointed.  However, the court ruled that what she wanted was illegal, and she did not request a proper remedy of appointing one of the other (non-black) candidates approved by the commission.  Thus Judge Francis can join the court in September.

South:  Billy Corriher summarizes state supreme court elections in Louisiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Texas, and North Carolina.

Numbers and Trivia:

2nd Circuit: As of September 1, Debra Ann Livingston will be the Chief Judge of the 2nd Circuit, taking over from Robert Katzmann. Katzmann was appointed by Clinton and is a D feeder judge.  Livingston was appointed by W in 2007. The Presidents who appointed chief judges of the 13 appeals courts are Clinton (4, 6, 9), W (1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, Fed), and Obama (DC).

9th Circuit:  This article analyzes the limited en banc panels of the 9th Circuit, particularly which judges are most and least likely to be selected for them.  John Doe has calculated (correctly) that there is a 24.9% chance that a limited en banc panel will have a majority of R appointed judges (ignoring senior judges).

Hispanic Judges:  Wikipedia has a list of Hispanic judges, but does not separate out federal judges.  These are Hispanic judges that Trump has appointed:
11th Circuit: Barbara Lagoa
SD-TX:  Fernando Rodriguez Jr.
SD-FL:  Roy Altman
SD-TX:  David Morales
SD-FL:  Rodolfo Ruiz
D-PR:  Raúl Arias-Marxuach
ND-GA:  Steven Grimberg
D-PR:  Silvia Carreño-Coll

There are a few more who have been nominated (corrections welcome):
CD-CA:  Fernando Aenlle-Rocha
ND-IL:  Franklin Valderrama
SD-FL:  Aileen Cannon
ED-NY:  Hector Gonzalez

History:

Supreme Court:  Dan McLaughlin shows that historical precedent supports a President and Senate of the same party filling a Supreme Court vacancy at any time, including a lame duck session.

Maryanne Trump Barry:  The President's sister, Maryanne Trump Barry, is a retired judge of the 3rd Circuit and D-NJ.  She was considered a moderate who was nominated by presidents of both parties, and is not close to her brother.

ABA:  Harsh Voruganti of the Vetting Room reviews the history of the ABA having a special role rating judicial candidates and argues (from the left) that this practice should end.

Resources:
Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room
FedJudges (Twitter)
Senate Cloakroom (Twitter)
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings
Wikipedia-Trump Judges
Wikipedia-US Appeals Courts
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia-State Supreme Court Vacancies
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July August

Friday, August 14, 2020

Lessons from the 2020 Primary Elections

What can we learn from the 2020 primary elections? This article explains what the winning candidates had in common. I wrote similar articles in 2014, 2016, and 2018.

They don't call it the establishment for nothing Establishment candidates won most state house races. They have the inside track on fundraising, endorsements, and organization.  None of the winners are outright moderates.  Most could be considered establishment conservatives.  Solid conservative winners include Chase Turner, Steve Carra, Ken Borton, and John Damoose.

Experience counts Elected experience is valuable for winning candidates. Ken Borton is a county commissioner, and establishment conservative winners like Robert Bezotte, TC Clements, and Dave Morgan are also elected officials.

Incumbency Matters All incumbent Republicans won renomination. Beating an incumbent in a primary is very hard. In recent years, the only conservative challengers who beat a Republican incumbent are Tim Walberg in 2006, Lee Chatfield in 2014, and Matt Hall in 2018. Certainly many incumbents deserve primary challenges, but conservatives have limited resources. Winning an open seat is much easier than beating an incumbent. Politicians can still be held to account when they run for other offices.  There are still some benefits to primary challenges, though, as they may encourage the incumbent to vote better for awhile and may help the challenger to win an open seat later.

If at first you don't succeed  Chase Turner almost beat an incumbent in the 2018 primary.  This time, he easily won the primary, advancing to a competitive general election.  Candidates who lost this time should look for opportunities to run again in the future.

Don't split the vote Conservatives did much better this year than in past years. HD-58 may have been lost to a less conservative candidate due to vote splitting.  Conservatives may have benefited from splits in the establishment in HD-59.

Money doesn't buy elections  Self-funding candidates have a bad electoral track record.  Sreenivas Cherukuri self-funded and lost badly in HD-38.  Shri Thanedar did win the D nomination in HD-3 with major self-funding after losing a race for governor in 2018.

Money is essential Money does not guarantee victory, but it is essential to get your message out. This is particularly true in local elections, which are often decided by name recognition. Look at how much winning conservative candidates raised.
Turner 31K
Carra 24K
Borton 50K
Damoose 70K

The candidate who raised the most money won in 6 of 12 contested primaries in open Republican seats (fewer than in past cycles), and the remaining winners still had good fundraising.  My rule of thumb is that the minimum amount needed to be a credible candidate is $30,000. Only two winners raised less than 30K this cycle, one in a race where no candidate did.  The minimum raised by a winner was 24K.

Wednesday, August 05, 2020

2020 Michigan Primary Election Results

2020 Michigan Primary Election Results

Congress:
3. Meijer 50 Afendoulis 26 Norton 16
5. Kelly 79
6. (R) Upton 62 Oelke 38
    (D) Hoadley 52 Richardson 48
8. Junge 35 Detmer 29 Lyke 25
10. McClain 42 Hernandez 36 Slocum 22
11. Esshaki 31 Greco 23 Bentivolio 22 Acosta 13 Williams 11
13. (D) Tlaib 66 Jones 34

State House:
2. (D) Tate 69 Harrell 31
3. (D) Thanedar 35 McKinney 20
9. (D) Whitsett 45 Ogburn 30
19. Ptashnik 52 Crider 43
20. Lacny 59 Rouch 41
25. Smith 37 Wiley 32 Early 31
32. Hornberger 64 Mikula 36
38. Turner 62 Cherukuri 23
41. Sosnoski 51 Agnello 49
47. Bezotte 54 Reckling 41
56. Clements 72 Blaine 28
58. Fink 39 Welden 26 Wiseley 18 Stockford 17
59. Carra 37 Coleman 23 Walton 18 Balog 16
60. (D) Rogers 51.5 Moore 48.5
61. Haltom 66 Graham 34
62. Morgan 72 Gregoire 20
70. Outman 57 Ross 22
71. Johnsen 51.3 Barnes 48.7
73. Posthumus 46 Inhulsen 29 Regan 25
79. Wendzel 82 Blackwell 18
81. Eisen 72 Mahaney 28
83. Beeler 36 Alexander 28 Keller 20 O'Mara 14
100. VanSingel 68 Sebolt 32
101. O'Malley 87 Cater 13
104. Roth 58 Cerone 42
105. Borton 55 Cutler 36
107. Damoose 57 Twardy 12 Fisher 11

Oakland:
D turnout was about 200000, R turnout was about 120000.
Executive. (D) Coulter 54 Meisner 46
Prosecutor. (D) McDonald 66 Cooper 34

Macomb:
D turnout was about 89000, R turnout was about 95000.
Prosecutor. (D) Chrzanowski 35 Switalski 32
Prosecutor. (R) Lucido 68 Goodman 32
If Lucido wins, his senate seat will be open.
Clerk. (R) Forlini 45 Williams 23

Monday, August 03, 2020

2020 Michigan Primary Recommendations

Every seat in the Michigan state house is up for election in 2020, and many seats are open due to term limits.  The house has been run by its more conservative wing for the past four years.  Continuing this trend will depend on conservatives winning primaries in August.  Here are my recommendations for who to support in Republican primaries.  Michigan Right to Life is abbreviated RTL.  Fundraising totals are available from Open Secrets.  Some races are hard evaluate, so additional information from readers is welcome.

Congress:

3.  Tom Norton is the most conservative candidate here, but he seems unable to raise a significant amount of money.  He didn't come close either time he ran for state representative.  Lynn Afendoulis is thoroughly establishment friendly.  Peter Meijer is a veteran and heir of the retail chain who seems to be somewhat more conservative than Afendoulis.  Joe Farrington has an eccentric platform.
5. Former state rep. Tim Kelly had a conservative record in office and is a credible candidate.
8. It will take a good candidate with good fundraising to beat incumbent democrat Elissa Slotkin.  Television anchor and Trump USCIS official Paul Junge has a decent resume and has raised by far the most money.  None of the other candidates have raised much money.  Mike Detmer is endorsed by Pat Colbeck.
10. State rep. Shane Hernandez is the clear choice here.  He was a Tea Party leader who has compiled one of the most conservative voting records in the state legislature, according to the American Conservative Union, MIRS, and RightMichigan.  He has been endorsed by conservative organizations including Gun Owners of America, Club for Growth, Americans for Prosperity, Michigan Trump Republicans, and Tea Party Express.  He has also been endorsed by many conservative legislators, including Jack Brandenberg, Leon Drolet, Pam Hornberger, and Tom Leonard, plus many more establishment-friendly colleagues.  Neither of his opponents have a conservative track record.
11. The field of candidates to take on incumbent democrat Haley Stevens is quite weak.  Nurse/lawyer Eric Esshaki and businesswoman Carmelita Greco have raised the most money.  Whitney Williams is endorsed by former state rep. Jeff Noble.  Former Congressman Kerry Bentivolio had a conservative voting record, but was ineffective in Congress and is a weak candidate.

State House:

19. Penny Crider was district director for senator Pat Colbeck.  Martha Ptashnik has support from establishment groups.
20. Marine veteran John Lacny has the RTL endorsement.
21. Businesswoman Laurel Hess has the RTL endorsement.
25. Jazmine Early and Adam Wiley both seem to be fairly conservative.
38. Activist Chase Turner almost won a primary against an incumbent in 2018.  He is endorsed by RTL and Pat Colbeck.
41. Firefighter Evan Agnello has the RTL endorsement.
47. Livingston GOP chair Meghan Reckling worked for conservative Senator Lana Theis, who endorsed her. Wes Nakagiri and Tom Leonard have also endorsed her.
48. County commissioner David Martin is a credible candidate who has the RTL endorsement.
56. Bedford Township trustee TC Clements seems to be the only credible candidate, as his opponent is 19.  He has the RTL endorsement.
58. Prosecutor and realtor Daren Wiseley has a solidly conservative platform.
59. Steve Carra is a legislative staffer for solid conservative state representative Steve Johnson.  He has a true commitment to conservative values.
61. Trump campaign aide Bronwyn Haltom has establishment support and a big fundraising lead.  IT specialist Tom Graham has the NRA endorsement and a somewhat eclectic platform.
62. Pennfield Township Supervisor Dave Morgan, a former democrat, is running again after narrowly losing in 2018.  The other candidates might be fine in a safe district, but Morgan seems the best choice to flip this D-held seat.
70. Postmaster and pastor Martin Ross has the RTL endorsement.  Pat Outman, son of state rep and senator Rick Outman, is endorsed by conservative incumbent Jim Lower.
71. Former Eaton County commissioner Christine Barnes is running again.  Businesswoman Gina Johnsen has much better fundraising and is fairly conservative.
73. Businessman Robert Regan, who finished second in 2014 and 2018, is the most conservative and has some grassroots support.
79. Pauline Wendzel is an incumbent with a reasonably conservative record.
83. Teacher Tim Keller is a conservative former Tea Party leader.  He has been endorsed by the 10th district GOP and conservative leaders including Pat Colbeck, Tom McMillin and Wes Nakagiri.
100. Incumbent Scott VanSingel has a rather disappointing voting record.  Oceana County Commissioner Andrew Sebolt is solidly conservative.
101. Incumbent Jack O'Malley faces a primary from Carolyn Cater, who seems to be somewhat more conservative.
104. AFP organizer Heather Cerone seems to be more conservative than Grand Traverse County Republican Party chairman John Roth.
105. Otsego County Commissioner Ken Borton is the most conservative candidate.  Tony Cutler is a teacher who finished second in the 2014 primary.  Jimmy Schmidt is a former democrat.
107. Documentary producer John Damoose is the most conservative candidate in a large field.  He has the sole RTL endorsement.

Friday, July 31, 2020

August 2020 Judiciary News

The Supreme Court dealt with several controversial issues at the end of its term.

The Supreme Court:

Abortion:  Chief Justice Roberts sided with the left to strike down a Louisiana law regulating abortion clinics.  The law was similar to a Texas law Roberts had voted to uphold in 2016.

Blaine Amendments:  The Supreme Court struck down Montana's 'Blaine Amendment', which banned government aid to religious (but not secular) private schools.  Blaine amendments, named after Speaker of the House (1869-75) James Blaine (from the state of Maine), exist in 37 states.  They are widely acknowledged to be motivated by anti-Catholic sentiment at a time when public schools were de-facto Protestant schools.  The Supreme Court did not forbid states from banning all aid to private schools, as is the case in Michigan.

Death Penalty:  Federal executions were finally resumed on July 16.  Various attempts to stop them by activists and lower court judges were thwarted by a 5-4 ruling by the Supreme Court.

Religious Liberty:  The Supreme Court issued three rulings protecting religious liberty this term.  This continues a string of positive rulings over the past decade.

Roberts:  Joan Biskupic claims inside sources on John Roberts' maneuvering on the court.  Notably, the court has not taken any Second Amendment cases because Roberts has signaled that he could not be counted on to protect gun rights.  Ed Whelan believes that at least one Supreme Court justice leaked to Biskupic for the article.

Supreme Court:  Ed Whelan ponders why conservative judges are more likely to defect to join liberal decisions than the reverse.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Trump list:  President Trump's announcement that he would release an updated list of Supreme Court candidates has led to behind-the-scenes wrangling about who should be on the new list.  Some people want to omit younger Trump appointees with limited records.  Some older judges are likely to be removed from the list.

Feinstein:  Progressives are upset with Senator Diane Feinstein (D-CA), the ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Committee, for not doing enough to oppose President Trump's judicial nominees.  It isn't clear who they think should have the job.

New Nominations:
TBD

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:
TBD

Confirmations:
TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Federalist Society:  The Committee on Codes of Conduct of the Judicial Conference of the United States has abandoned its attempt to ban judges from membership in the Federalist Society.

11th Circuit:  Clinton-appointed judge Robert Hinkle (ND-FL) recently ruled against a Florida law requiring criminals to pay fines before being restored voting rights.  The 11th Circuit agreed to hear the case en banc, bypassing a three-judge panel.  Senate Judiciary Committee Ds sent a letter to three Trump-appointed judges demanding that they recuse themselves from the case, which would give liberals the majority.  Judge Andrew Brasher (AL) had already done so shortly before the letter was sent.  Judges Robert Luck and Barbara Lagoa had previously heard, but not ruled on, a different case on the same issue as justices on the Florida Supreme Court.  They denied the request to recuse themselves.

SD-FL:  Judge Federico Moreno took senior status on July 17.  He is the only Hispanic on President Trump's Supreme Court appointment list.  He was nominated to the 11th Circuit in 1992, but Joe Biden denied him a hearing.

ED-WI:  Clinton-appointed Judge Lynn Adelman was admonished by the 7th Circuit Judicial Council, which handles ethics complaints in that circuit.  He wrote a law review article entitled "The Roberts Court's Assault on Democracy", an angry screed against President Trump, Chief Justice John Roberts, and the R-appointed majority on the Supreme Court.  Before appointment to the bench, Adelman was a D state senator and three-time congressional candidate.

State Supreme Courts:

Alaska: Governor Mike Dunleavy name Dario Borghesan to the Alaska Supreme Court, replacing retired conservative Craig Stowers.  Borghesan was chief assistant attorney general under AG Kevin Clarkson.  He seemed to be the only candidate with conservative bonafides.  The other candidates were Superior Court Judges Dani Crosby, Jennifer Stuart Henderson and Yvonne Lamoureux, all appointed to the Superior Court by left-leaning independent Gov. Bill Walker.  Three of the five judges on the left-leaning court must retire no later than 2025.

Connecticut:  Governor Ned Lamont nominated Christine Keller to the Connecticut Supreme Court to succeed Justice Richard Palmer.  Keller is less than 3 years below the mandatory retirement age of 70.

Florida:  A lawsuit is challenging the appointment of black conservative Renatha Francis to the Florida Supreme Court.  Francis will not achieve the minimum 10 years of membership in the Florida bar until September 24.  Governor DeSantis announced that he would appoint her then.  He was supposed to make the appointment by March 23, but delayed the announcement due to the pandemic.  The suit was filed by state rep Geraldine Thompson, a black D who wanted one of the more liberal black applicants screened out by the Judicial Nominating Commission to be appointed.

New Hampshire:  The Hampshire Supreme Court has 2 D and 2 R appointees, with one vacancy.  That seat has been vacant for almost one year.  Former Justice Robert Lynn retired on August 23, 2019, as he was age-limited.  Governor Chris Sununu nominated Attorney General Gordon MacDonald, but the state Executive Council, with a 3-2 D majority, blocked the nomination.  Councilor Andru Volinsky is one of the D candidates against Governor Sununu this year.

Pennsylvania:  The Pennsylvania state senate approved a bill to elect Supreme Court judges by district rather than statewide.  The court currently has a 5-2 D majority, and most justices are from Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Texas:  Republican Justice Paul W. Green will retire in August.  He is 68 and was first elected in 2004.  His replacement will be appointed by Governor Greg Abbott.  This will be Abbott's fourth appointment to the all-Republican court.

Numbers and Trivia:

Trump Appointees:  Pew Research compares the number of Trump appointees to previous presidents at the same point in their terms.

Federalist Society:  John Doe (@fedjudges) has analyzed the signatories of the letter from mostly conservative judges opposing the proposal by the Judicial Conference of the United States Committee on Codes of Conduct to ban judges from membership in the Federalist Society.  I did some analysis of my own in June.

Two districts, D-ND and MD-AL, have only Trump appointees.  The first district court to have a Trump-appointed chief judge is D-ID, where the other judge is a Clinton appointee whose term as chief expired after 20 years.

History:

Lame Duck Appointments:  There have been many election-year Supreme Court appointments in the past, but none recently.  Not surprisingly, they are much more likely to be confirmed when the Presidency and Senate are controlled by the same party.

Resources:
Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room
FedJudges (Twitter)
Senate Cloakroom (Twitter)
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings
Wikipedia-Trump Judges
Wikipedia-US Appeals Courts
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia-State Supreme Court Vacancies
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July

Monday, July 27, 2020

July 2020 Michigan State House Fundraising

July 24 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Here are summaries of the total amount raised in competitive Michigan state house districts.  Totals include in-kind contributions.  Candidates who filed reporting waivers are generally omitted.  These numbers come from MIRS and the SOS campaign finance reports.  XX means the report has yet to be filed.

2. (D) Tate 108K, Harrell XX
3. (D) Thanedar 438K (all self), Mckinney 37K, Cochran 23K
4. (D) Aiyash 72K, Oberholtzer 58K, Holmes 37K, Ahmed 12K
6. (D) Carter 40K, Palmer 23K
7. (D) Scott 28K, Yancy 10K
8. (D) Etheridge 37K, Young 30K, Davis 24K
9. (D) Whitsett 22K, Ogburn 38K
10. (D) Cavanagh 13K, Hill 5K
13. (D) Liberati 34K, Estheimer 10K, Colovos XX
19. (R) Crider 54K (32K self), Ptashnik 45K (D) Pohutski 148K
20. (R) Lacny 30K (all self), Roush 3K (D) Koleszar 131K
21. (R) Nangle 6K, Hess 3K (D) Puri 128K, Petzold 55K
22. (D) Steenland 20K, Nelson 9K, Anderson 1.5K
25. (R) Smith 10K, Wiley 6K, Early waiver (D) Shannon 65K
27. (D) Weiss 50K, Kresch 33K, Stoel 22K, Williams 8K
35. (D) Bolden 61K, Martini 27K
37. (D) Bruce 111K, Steckloff 62K
38. (R) Chereukuri 102K (100K self), Turner 31K (D) Breen 43K McAllister 33K
39. (R) Berman 67K (D) Pulver 117K
40. (R) Cleary 6K (D) Manoogian 160K
41. (R) Agnello 22K Sosnoski 7K (D) Kuppa 188K
43. (R) Schroeder 56K (D) Breadon 25K
44. (R) Maddock 83K (D) Forrest 44K
45. (R) Tisdel 42K (D) Johnson 58K, Anness 39K
46. (R) Reilly 51K (D) LaMacchia 98K
47. (R) Reckling 55K, Bezotte 46K (21K self), Dyba 5K
48. (R) Martin 11K, Cross 1.3K (D) Kennedy 85K
55. (D) Brabec 142K
56. (R) Clements 28K, Blaine 4K
58. (R) Fink 49K, Welden 23K (17K self), Wiseley 19K, Stockford 11K
59. (R) Coleman 52K (38K self), Carra 24K, Walton 15K, Balog 9K, Hinkle 8K (all self)
60. (D) Rogers 107K, Moore 43K
61. (R) Haltom 286K (100K self), Graham 6K (5K self) (D) Morse 165K
62. (R) Morgan 13K (9K self), Gregoire 4K (D) Haadsma 199K
66. (R) Griffin 85K (D) Wheeler 24K
70. (R) Outman 46K, Ross 17K (14K self), Comden 4K
71. (R) Johnsen 88K (42K self), Barnes 12K (D) Witwer 195K
72. (R) Johnson 18K (D) Wilson 15K, Cheng 7K
73. (R) Inhulsen 116K, Posthumus 53K, Regan 23K (12K self) (D) Saxton 89K
76. (R) Zandstra 55K (D) Hood 45K
79. (R) Wendzel 83K, Blackwell 3K (D) Pitchford 38K
83. (R) Alexander 60K, O'Mara 49K (all self), Beeler 30K, Keller 29K
90. (R) Slagh 90K, Northrup 5K
91. (R) VanWoerkem 112K (D) Hosticka 37K
95. (D) Bryant 16K, Hammond 13K, Graham 7K, Adams 4K
98. (R) Glenn 258K (D) Schulz 173K
99. (R) Hauck 58K (D) Zang 6K
100. (R) VanSingel 78K Sebolt 9K
101. (R) O'Malley 80K Cater waiver
104. (R) Roth 38K (22K self), Cerone 19K (D) O'Neil 210K
105. (R) Culter 56K, Borton 50K
107. (R) Damoose 70K (30K self), Fisher 28K (21K self), Lamb 25K (24K self), Twardy 8K, Lieurance 5K
110. (R) Markkanen 31K (D) Metsa 20K, Dale 6K

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

CTV Endorsements

Citizens for Traditional Values, a social conservative organization in Michigan, has issued endorsements for the 2020 primary.  They endorsed most, but not all GOP incumbents.  They endorsed two candidates in some primaries.

16 Emily Bauman
19 Martha Ptashnik, Penny Crider
20 John Lacny
23 John Poe
24 Steve Marino
25 Adam Wiley, Jazmine Early
38 Chase Turner
42 Ann Bollin
43 Andrea Schroeder
44 Matt Maddock
45 Mark Tisdel
47 Meghan Reckling, Robert Bezotte
48 David Martin
50 Christina Firchett-Hickson
54 Martin Church
56 TC Clements
57 Bronna Kahle
58 Andrew Fink
59 Allen Balog
60 Gary Mitchell
62 Dave Morgan
63 Matt Hall
64 Julie Alexander
67 Nate Ross
68 Robert Atkinson
70 Martin Ross
71 Gina Johnsen, Christine Barnes
72 Steven Johnson
73 Robert Regan
74 Mark Huizenga
81 Gary Eisen
83 Greg Alexander
84 Phil Green
87 Julie Calley
90 Bradley Slagh
94 Rodney Wakeman
97 Jason Wentworth
98 Annette Glenn
100 Scott VanSingel
104 John Roth, Heather Cerone
106 Sue Allor
107 John Damoose
108 Beau LaFave
110 Gregory Markkanen

Saturday, July 11, 2020

NRA Endorsements

The National Rifle Association has just issued its endorsements for the 2020 primary.  They give grades to candidates who have voting records or fill out their survey.  They endorse most acceptable incumbents and endorse in some open seats. (Aq means a candidate got an A from the questionnaire only, and doesn't have a voting record.)

Congress:
3. Afendoulis B Farrington ? Meijer AQ Norton AQ
8. No grades listed
10. Hernandez A+ McClain Aq Slocum A
11. No grades listed

State House:
13. (D) Colovos Aq Liberati B
19. Crider and Ptashnik both got Aq
20. Lacny C
21. Hess B
25. Early Aq Smith D Wiley Aq
38. Turner and Cherukuri both got Aq
41. Both got Aq
47. Bezotte and Reckling both got Aq
48. Both got Aq
56. Clements Aq (endorsed)
58. Fink, Stockford, Wiseley got Aq
59. All rated got Aq
61. Graham Aq (endorsed)
62. Gregoire and Morgan got Aq
70. Comden C Outman, Puckerin, and Ross got Aq
71. Both got Aq
73. All three got Aq
81. Eisen A+ (endorsed)
83. All rated got Aq
90. Slagh A (endorsed)
104. Both got Aq
105. Borton, Cutler got Aq Schmidt D
107. All rated got Aq

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

July 2020 Judiciary News

As the nation descends into anarchy, there is plenty of news in the American judicial system.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Trump:  President Trump will update his Supreme Court list by September 1.  John Doe had argued that he would.

Biden:  Will Biden release a Supreme Court list?  Prominent Ds are advising him not to.

DC Circuit:  The Senate confirmed Justin Walker 51-42 to the DC Circuit.  This is Trump's third appointment to "the second most influential appeals court in the nation".  Walker is a protege of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  Walker's seat on WD-KY will soon be open for another nominee.

5th Circuit:  The Senate confirmed Cory Wilson 52-48 to the last open appeals court seat.  He finally fills a MS seat that has been open since 2017.  The 5th circuit should finally have a solid conservative majority, with 10 conservatives, 2 moderates, and 5 liberals.

New Jersey:  There are still no nominations for district court in New Jersey.  Carl Tobias tries blame President Trump, but given that most blue states have had nominees confirmed, it is clear that D senators are to blame.

Thurmond rule:  Will Senate Rs ignore the 'Thurmond rule'?  This is actually tradition, not a rule, that says the senate won't confirm judges nominated near the end of a president's term.  This 'rule' has often been violated, and is much more likely to be applied when the Senate and Presidency are in opposite hands.

New Nominations:
TBD

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:
July 2 (business):  Some district court nominees may be held over.

Confirmations:
TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Supreme Court:  The Supreme Court ruled in Bostock v. Clayton County "by a vote of 6 to 3 that discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or transgender status constitutes discrimination “because of … sex” in violation of Title VII."  Justices Gorsuch and Roberts joined the court's four liberals.  Ed Whelan discusses the dissents by Justices Alito and Kavanaugh.

Trump judges:  This article debunks the myth that Trump's judicial appointees are less qualified than those of previous presidents.

Whitehouse:  Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) has long railed against the Federalist Society, claiming it is just a conduit for wealthy special interests to stack the courts.  However, there are many well-funded leftist groups that try to influence the courts.  Also, Whitehouse got a major D donor, John McConnell, a federal judgeship (D-RI).

DC-CA:  Chief Judge Cormac Carney has stepped down after less than a month as chief judge.  He described a court official, a black woman, as "street smart".  Some, including him, considered the comment racially insensitive.  While he was appointed to federal court by W, he was appointed to a state court by Governor Gray Davis (D).  He also declared California's death penalty unconstitutional in 2014, a decision unanimously overturned by the 9th Circuit (!), so he doesn't appear to be any sort of conservative.

MD-FL:  Judge Virginia M. Hernandez Covington (appointed by W) will take senior status on July 12, her 65th birthday.

State Supreme Courts:

Georgia:  In the June 9 primaries, Justice Sarah Warren (R) was easily renominated, with 79%.  Charlie Bethel was held to 53% by former state Rep. Beth Beskin (R) (14-18). Beskin has twice tried to run for open seats on the court, only to have the elections cancelled when the incumbents resigned early and they were filled by appointment.

Kansas:  Kansas Supreme Court Justice Carol Beier will retire.  D Governor Laura Kelly will get her third appointment to the famously liberal court, as liberal judges see a chance to get favorable replacements.

Michigan:  Republicans currently hold a 4-3 majority on the court, but moderate Republicans Elizabeth Clement and David Viviano hold the balance of power.  There are two full-term seats up for election on the Michigan Supreme Court. They are those of D Chief Justice Bridget Mary McCormack and conservative Stephen Markman, who is age-limited.  McCormack is likely safe, while the open seat will be hotly contested.  Court of Appeals judge Brock Swartzle and assistant St. Clair County prosecutor Mary Kelly are running for R nominations.  Candidates who are women, Irish, and especially Irish women have an advantage in Michigan judicial races, as former justices Marilyn Kelly and Mary Beth Kelly can attest.

New Jersey:  Governor Phil Murphy has appointed Fabiana Pierre-Louis to the New Jersey Supreme Court.  She is the first African American woman on the New Jersey Supreme Court.  The court will have 3 appointees from D governors and 4 appointees from R governors, though it is unclear whether any of the R appointees are conservatives.

West Virginia:  The (officially nonpartisan) election of three seats was held on June 9.  The court will maintain a 3R-2D balance.
Place 1: Incumbent Tim Armstead (R), a former state House Speaker, was reelected.
Place 2: Trial lawyer Bill Wooton (D) narrowly beat a more conservative candidate.
Place 3:  Appointed incumbent John Hutchison, a supposedly conservative D appointed by Governor Justice, was reelected.

Numbers and Trivia:

President Trump has had 200 judicial confirmations for Article III courts.  That includes four judges (Quattlebaum, Phipps, Brasher, and Walker) confirmed to both district and appeals courts.  Trump has 53 appeals court appointments, compared to 55 for Obama's two terms.  Trump has 143 district court appointments.  Obama had 141 district judges in his first term, and 268 total.

7th Circuit:  As of July 4, Diane Sykes will be the Chief Judge of the 7th Circuit, taking over from Diane Wood.  Sykes was appointed by W, and is on President Trump's Supreme Court list.  The Presidents who appointed chief judges of the 13 appeals courts are Clinton (2, 4, 6, 9), W (1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, Fed), and Obama (DC).

Black Judges:  Wikipedia has a list of black federal judges.  (The list is not complete, as it omits Ada Brown of ND-TX.)  Notably, Trump has nominated 10 black district judges, similar to the 11 appointed by George W Bush in his first term.  However, Bush appointed six black judges to the appeals courts, while Trump has not yet nominated any.  Bush's appointees included two conservatives (Smith, Brown), two moderates (Duncan, Holmes), and two liberals (Gregory, Parker).

History:

Roberts:  In light of Justice Roberts' recent string of disappointing rulings, it is enlightening to return to Ann Coulter's columns (one, two, three) criticizing Roberts' appointment in 2005.

Resources:
Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room
FedJudges (Twitter)
Senate Cloakroom (Twitter)
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings
Wikipedia-Trump Judges
Wikipedia-US Appeals Courts
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia-State Supreme Court Vacancies
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June

Sunday, June 21, 2020

Michigan Right to Life Endorsements

Michigan Right to Life has just issued its endorsements for the 2020 primary.  RTL swings a significant number of Michigan primary voters, so its endorsements will decide some races.

RTL will recommend all candidates if they are all pro-life, but if there is a serious non-pro-life candidate, they will pick one pro-life candidate to endorse.  Their noteworthy endorsements are listed below.

President:  Trump
US Senate: John James

Congress:
All Republican incumbents are endorsed except for Fred Upton.  Notably, Upton was endorsed in 2012, 2014, and 2016 despite a past pro-abortion record.
3. Afendoulis, Meijer, and Norton all endorsed
5. Tim Kelly solely endorsed
6. No endorsement
8. All four Republican candidates are endorsed.
9. Both Republican candidates are endorsed.
10. All three Republican candidates are endorsed.

State House:  All Republican incumbents are endorsed except two.
13. (D) Bill Colovos
19. Crider and Ptashnik both endorsed.
20. John Lacny
21. Laurel Ness
25. All three Republican candidates are endorsed.
38. Chase Turner solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
39. No endorsement for incumbent Ryan Berman
41. Evan Agnello
45. No endorsement for Mark Tisdel
47. Bezotte and Reckling both endorsed.
48. David Martin solely endorsed.
56. TC Clements
58. Andrew Fink solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
59. Allen Balong solely endorsed.  Some other candidates, including State Carra, are pro-life.
61. Bronwyn Haltom
62. Dave Morgan
70. Martin Ross solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
71. Barnes and Johnsen both endorsed.
73. All three Republican candidates are endorsed.
78. No endorsement for incumbent Brad Paquette
83. Gregory Alexander solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
95. (D) James Graham
96. Bauer and Beson both endorsed.
104. Cerone and Roth both endorsed.
105. Cutler and Borton both endorsed.
107. John Damoose solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?

Sunday, May 31, 2020

June 2020 Judiciary News

As the nation begins to reopen, there is plenty of news in the American judicial system.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

DC Circuit:  The leftist group Demand Justice has tried to claim a conspiracy between Senator McConnell and retiring judge Thomas Griffith. McConnell has reportedly been encouraging conservative judges who are eligible to take senior status. District judge Justin Walker, a McConnell protege, has been nominated to Griffith’s seat. But there is no evidence that Griffith got anything. Further, Griffith has been planning to retire for a year due to his need to care for his sick wife.

DC Circuit:  Demand Justice filed a complaint with new DC Circuit chief judge Sri Srinivasan, who accepted it despite Demand Justice’s failure to set forth its complaint under penalty of perjury. He asked Chief Justice John Roberts to transfer the complaint to another circuit for evaluation. Roberts denied the request, and it was then dismissed by judge Henderson.  Srinivasan's behavior may be influenced by a desire for a Supreme Court appointment.

DC Circuit:  Justin Walker got a rare WQm/Qmin/NQmin rating from the ABA.  The ABA gave Walker an NQ for lack of trial experience when rating him for the district court.  Now that he is a district court judge that is less of an issue.  Also, his background as a law professor is a better fit for the appeals court.  This deprives the left of a talking point opposing his nomination.

5th Circuit:  The Judiciary Committee held a hearing on Cory Wilson's nomination for the 5th Circuit (MS).  He received a WQ from the ABA, an upgrade from the Q he received for his district court nomination.  D Senators attacked him for his opposition to Obamacare and support for voter ID laws. He held up well and should pass the committee by a party line vote.

Guardian:  The Guardian, a far-left British paper, is running a series of articles attacking Trump's judicial nominees.

New Nominations:
D-NM:  Fred Federici--Assistant US Attorney
D-NM:  Brenda Saiz--private practice

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:
June 4 (business):  Justin Walker is likely to be voted out of committee.

Confirmations:
The Senate is expected to confirm John Leonard Badalamenti (MD-FL) and Drew Tipton (SD-TX) the week of June 1.

The Federal Judiciary:

Judicial retirements:  The GOP may, or may not, be pressuring conservative judges eligible for senior status to retire.  Aside from media reports making this claim, the only evidence seems to be a spreadsheet created by the Article III project, a group fighting for confirmation of conservative judges.  Most judges did not comment; one who did said
"I hope to die on the bench," said one federal judge on the list who requested anonymity to say there'd been no outreach from McConnell or anyone else about their job plans.
Federalist Society:  The Judicial Conference of the United States Committee on Codes of Conduct wants to bar judges from being members of the Federalist Society, while claiming that the ABA is fine.  In March, 210 federal judges wrote a letter protesting the Draft Advisory Opinion.  They point out that the ABA engages in advocacy and lobbying, while the Federalist Society does not.  They also ask whether members of the ABA recused themselves when drafting the opinion.

Federalist Society:  The primary authors of the letter were Greg Katsas (DC Circuit), Andy Oldham (5th), William Pryor (11th), and Amul Thapar (6th).  The 210 judges are primarily Republican appointees, but include some appointees of democrats as well.  The appeals court judges in this category are José Cabranes (2nd), Julie Carnes (11th), Frank Hull (11th), Cheryl Krause (3rd), Stanley Marcus (11th), and Richard Tallman (9th).  All but Krause are generally considered right of center.  The only Trump appeals court judges to not sign the letter are Ralph Erickson (8th), Jonathan Kobes (8th), Eric Miller (9th), Marvin Quattlebaum (4th), and Amy St. Eve (7th).

Federalist Society:  The letter was leaked shortly before Justin Walker's committee hearing, and a New York Times article framed the issue around his nomination in a very biased way.  Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, who is known for promoting conspiracy theories about the Federalist Society, asked Walker about the letter at his nomination hearing.

9th Circuit:  Environmentalists are upset with the Trump appointees to the 9th circuit.  (For bonus points, see how many errors you can spot in this article.)

State Supreme Courts:

Alaska:  The Alaska Judicial Council selected four finalists for the Supreme Court vacancy caused by the retirement of Craig Stowers, effective June 1.  They are "Superior Court Judges Dani Crosby, Jennifer Stuart Henderson and Yvonne Lamoureux, as well as chief assistant attorney general Dario Borghesan".  Borghesan seems to be the only candidate with conservative bonafides, as he worked for AGs Dan Sullivan and Kevin Clarkson.  The other three were all appointed to the Superior Court  by left-leaning independent Gov. Bill Walker.  Alaska, along with Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri, is a red state with a liberal Supreme Court due to its "merit-based" judicial selection.

Florida:  Governor Ron DeSantis finally made two appointments to the Florida Supreme Court, after passing his second, self-imposed deadline of May 1.  One is John Couriel, a Miami lawyer went to Harvard, clerked for a district judge, and served as an AUSA. He is Hispanic (Cuban). He was a finalist last time, but was not chosen.

The other appointee is Renatha Francis, who went to Florida Coastal University Law School, and served as a trial judge in Miami and Palm Beach. She is a black woman (born in Jamaica). Many black leaders had demanded a black appointee. She has to wait until September to meet the eligibility requirements.  The appointments were cheered by conservatives and jeered by liberals.

Georgia:  The Georgia Supreme Court has ruled 6-2 that Governor Brian Kemp can appoint the successor to Justice Keith Blackwell, who will leave the Georgia Supreme Court in November. He was scheduled to face a retention election in November, but state law allows the Governor to appoint a replacement who will not face retention until later. Former U.S. Rep. John Barrow (D) and former state Rep. Beth Beskin (R) wanted to run for the seat. They filed suit claiming that cancelling the election is illegal since Blackwell is still on the court. After a local court denied the request, they appealed to the Supreme Court.  They demanded that all eight Supreme Court justices recuse themselves; five did.  Barrow and Raskin were previously candidates for the seat of retiring judge Robert Benham, but that election was also cancelled when Benham resigned early.  Barrow is now pursuing a similar case in federal court.

Georgia:  Former state Rep. Beth Beskin (R) (14-18) is challenging incumbent Georgia Supreme Court Justice Charlie Bethel in the June 9 primary.  Beskin has twice tried to run for open seats on the court, only to have the elections cancelled when the incumbents resigned early and they were filled by appointment.  Bethel was a state senator (10-16) before appointment to the Georgia Court of Appeals.

Minnesota: Governor Tim Walz appointed Nobles County District Judge Gordon Moore to the Minnesota Supreme Court.  He replaces retiring Justice David Lillehaug.  Moore previously worked for Attorney General Skip Humphrey (D) and was appointed to his current position by Mark Dayton (D).  Notably, Moore lives in rural southwest Minnesota.  The Minnesota Supreme Court has five D appointees and two R appointees.

West Virginia:  The (officially nonpartisan) election of three seats will occur on June 9.  Incumbent Tim Armstead (R), a former state House Speaker, faces two challengers.  Incumbent Margaret Workman (D), who managed to get the state judges to issue an injunction against her impeachment trial (!) is retiring.  There are four candidates for her seat.  Appointed incumbent John Hutchison (D) is seeking election against two challengers.  Good luck figuring out who is conservative from media profiles of the races (1 2 3).

Lockdowns:  Many states have been grappling with the issue of lockdowns imposed by executive order.  Some courts have upheld the orders, while others have been struck down.  In one example of the latter, the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down Governor Tony Evers' stay-at-home order.  The ruling was 4-3, with conservative Brian Hagedorn joining the two liberals in the minority.

Numbers and Trivia:

Trump:  The Brookings Institution compares Trump to previous presidents with regard to the number and percentage of judicial appointments.

D-ND:  The last time a North Dakota district judge was appointed by a D president was in 1941.

ED-NY:  Diane Gujarati was nominated to the Eastern District of New York on May 15, 2018 (over two years ago) and has not yet received a vote.  She was previously nominated on September 13, 2016 by President Obama to the same position.

As of June 3, William Pryor will be the Chief Judge of the 11th Circuit, taking over from Edward Carnes.  The Presidents who appointed chief judges of the 13 appeals courts are Clinton (2, 4, 6, 7, 9), W (1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 11, Fed), and Obama (DC).

Trump has appointed nine black judges to district courts. Here is the list, along with my best understanding of their views.
SD-AL: Terry Moorer – nonpartisan
ED-VA: Rossie Alston – conservative
SD-FL: Rodney Smith – nonpartisan
WD-TX: Jason Pulliam – conservative
ED-PA: John Younge – liberal
ND-TX: Ada Brown – nonpartisan
ED-MI: Stephanie Davis – liberal
ED-NC: Richard Myers – conservative
WD-OK: Bernard Jones – nonpartisan

There is one more who has been nominated.
ED-VA: Roderick C. Young – nonpartisan

Resources:
Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room
FedJudges (Twitter)
Senate Cloakroom (Twitter)
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings
Wikipedia-Trump Judges
Wikipedia-US Appeals Courts
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia-State Supreme Court Vacancies
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Influence peddling, Hypocrisy, and Lies

Governor Whitmer's husband recently tried to cut the line to get his boat out of storage by using his wife's position.  The line existed due to the Governor's lockdown orders.  This was exposed by a Facebook post by the owner of the storage company.

Whitmer’s spokespeople initially tried to avoid commenting on this story, saying
“Our practice is not to discuss the governor’s or her family’s personal calendar/schedules. And we’re not going to make it a practice of addressing every rumor that is spread online,” Brown said. 
“There’s been a lot of wild misinformation spreading online attacking the governor and her family, and the threats of violence against her personally are downright dangerous,” she added.
Of course, it isn’t a rumor when the person making the allegation knows whether it is true or not. The governor’s staff also claimed it was false.
“But the lawmaker said he eventually deleted it after the governor’s office reached out to the staff of Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey, R-Clarklake, asking for the post to be removed and contending the comments were false.”
Now, the Governor has admitted the story is true, but claimed it is a joke.
“My husband made a failed attempt at humor last week when checking in with a small business that helps with our boat and dock up north,” Whitmer said at a press conference Tuesday. “Knowing it wouldn’t make a difference, he jokingly asked if being married to me might move him up in the queue. Obviously with the motorized boating prohibition in our early days of COVID-19, he thought it might get a laugh. It didn’t.”
But which part was a joke? He was the governor’s husband, and was asking for special treatment.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

2020 Michigan State House Races

Last updated August 2, 2020.

Cross-posted at The Western RightRight Michigan, and RRH Elections.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans won a 63-47 majorities in 2014 and 2016, and a reduced 58-42 margin in 2018. There are 25 open seats, 12 held by Republicans and 13 held by democrats. There are 22 open due to term-limits, 1 just due to seeking another office, 1 due to death, and 1 pure retirement.

Democrats are hoping to take control of the state house. They may benefit from anti-Trump enthusiasm.

In 2014 and 2016, there were many contests between moderate and conservative factions in the house GOP, won by the conservatives narrowly in 2014 and more decisively in 2016.  These battles died down in 2018, and conservative Jason Wentworth is the presumptive next house GOP leader.  There are still likely to be some ideological battles.

Republican Michigander has a profile of the Michigan state house focusing more on district demographics.





The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 state house results, 2012 Romney %, 2016 Trump % (if known), and political rating.  Candidates who filed a reporting waiver, indicating that they will not raise more than $1000 (and hence are not serious) are typically omitted.  The complete candidate list and recent fundraising numbers are available here:


2020 Michigan Primary Candidate List
July 2020 Michigan State House Fundraising