Saturday, May 05, 2018

2018 Kalamazoo County Commission Races

This post was last updated May 5, 2018.

Democrats won a 6-5 majorities on the Kalamazoo County Commission in 2014 and 2016, which were generally good years for Republicans.  There were three open seats on 2016, and there is one (district 2) this year.

The following post has detailed descriptions of the districts and their political leanings. The numbers given are the percentage the Republican county commission candidate got in 2012, 2014 and 2016, and Ruth Johnson's (2010), Mitt Romney (2012) and Donald Trump (2016) percentages.  Incumbents are marked below with asterisks.

Kalamazoo County Commission Districts.


List of Kalamazoo County Candidates

District 1 [N Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
R12: 13.9 R14: 0 R16: 19 Johnson: 20.3 Romney: 13.5 Trump: 14.9
Democrat: Stephanie Moore*
Republican: Ronald Olson
Stephanie Moore replaced Carolyn Alford in 2014 in this majority minority district.  Moore was a Kalamazoo city commissioner and has been convicted of several crimes over the years.  She allied with Republicans to make Dale Shugars the board chairman for one year and became chair for 2018 herself.

District 2 [SE Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
R12: 0 R14: 29.5 R16: 27.5 Johnson: 33.4 Romney: 28.1 Trump: 25.1
Democrat: Paul Haag
Republican: none
Incumbent Kevin Wordelman, a union organizer at WMU, won this seat vacated by David Buskirk in 2014.  He is retiring this year.

District 3 [SW Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
R12: 31.1 R14: 32.3 R16: 29.7 Johnson: 37.2 Romney: 30.1 Trump: 28
Democrat: Tracy Hall*
Republican: Charley Coss
Hall was elected in 2016, replacing John Taylor.  Hall was previously a candidate for Kalamazoo city commission in 2013.  Coss is running again after losing in 2016.

District 4 [Kalamazoo Twp, Parchment] Safe Democrat
R12: 32.2 R14: 0 R16: 0 Johnson: 41.8 Romney: 31.7 Trump: 30
Democrat: Michael Seals*, Shequita Lewis
Republican: none
Seals defeated fellow democrat commissioner (02-10) Franklin Thompson in 2010.

District 5 [Alamo, N Oshtemo, NW Kalamazoo Twp] Safe Democrat
R12: 44.3 R14: 44.7 R16: 43.7 Johnson: 56.9 Romney: 47.2 Trump: 45.8
Democrat: Julie Rogers*
Republican: Chad Dillon
Rogers won this competiive seat in 2012.  Dillon, a staffer for Congressman Fred Upton, is running again.

District 6 [Cooper, Richland, Ross] Safe Republican
R12: 54 R14: 100 R16: 77 Johnson: 62.9 Romney: 54.7 Trump: 56.4
Democrat: none
Republican: Ron Kendall*
Kendall, a staffer for state rep. Tom Barrett (14-P) of Eaton County, succeeded Jeff Heppler in 2016.  He beat Vince Carahaly, a moderate businessman, and Frank Brooks, a passionate Trump supporter, 39-35-26 in the primary.

District 7 [Comstock, Galesburg, Charleston, Climax, Wakeshma] Safe Republican
R12: 50.9 R14: 54.9 R16: 56.8 Johnson: 59.3 Romney: 50.6 Trump: 56.7
Democrat: none
Republican: Roger Tuinier*
Tuinier, who is a greenhouse owner, barely defeated Leroy Crabtree in 2012.  He beat David Burgess, a Comstock Township Trustee, in 2014, and Pat Clark, a Climax Village Trustee, in 2016.

District 8 [Pavillion, Brady, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] Safe Republican
R12: 100 R14: 61 R16: 100 Johnson: 63.5 Romney: 55.1 Trump: 60
Democrat: Cody Dekker
Republican: John Gisler*, Kraig Lee
Commissioner John Gisler was elected in 2010 but deferred to fellow commissioner (02-12) David Maturen in the 2012 Republican primary due to redistricting.  Gisler returned in 2014 when Maturen was elected to the state house.

District 9 [Texas, SE Oshtemo] Safe Republican
R12: 53.9 R14: 61.3 R16: 54.6 Johnson: 62.5 Romney: 51.7 Trump: 47.6
Democrat: Christine Morse
Republican: Dale Shugars*
Shugars, a conservative former state senator (94-02) and state rep (90-94), was elected to the commission in 2014, succeeding Brandt Iden.  He was board chairman in 2017 thanks to a deal with democrat Stephanie Moore.

District 10 [W Portage] Lean democrat
R12: 52.8 R14: 49.6 R16: 49.8 Johnson: 58.8 Romney: 49.4 Trump: 45.2
Democrat: Michael Quinn*
Republican: Steve Carra, Nasim Ansari
Quinn was a commissioner 2008-2010.  Following R Phil Stinchcomb (10-12) and D Larry Provancher (95-02, 14-16), Quinn returned.  Carra is a staffer for state rep Steven Johnson (16-P) of Allegan County and secretary of the Kalamazoo GOP.  Ansari was a county commissioner (02-12) and Portage city commissioner (13-17) who lost a race for mayor of Portage in 2017.

District 11 [E Portage] Lean Republican
R12: 52.5 R14: 54.2 R16: 52.5 Johnson: 56.5 Romney: 47.5 Trump: 46.9
Democrat: Meredith Place
Republican: Scott McGraw*
McGraw succeed John Zull (00-14).  McGraw formerly worked for the Kalamazoo Homebuilders Association and is now Chairman of the Kalamazoo GOP.  Place is the wife of former commissioner (02-16) and democrat party chairman John Taylor.

Tuesday, May 01, 2018

Primary Recommendations for Michigan State Senate

Every seat in the Michigan state senate is up for election in 2018, and the majority of seats are open due to term limits.  The senate has been run by more moderate Republicans, who have obstructed more conservative legislation passed in the state house.  How conservative the senate is for the next four years will be determined by Republican primaries in August.  Here are my recommendations for who to support in those primaries.

Recommended candidates are in bold.  Their voting records can be found at MichiganVotes.org.

7. State rep Laura Cox is an establishment conservative who is a strong candidate in a vulnerable district.  She is unopposed.
8. State rep Peter Lucido is a mixed bag who opposed Proposal 1 and an increased gas tax but also opposed right to work and electric choice and supported Hollywood subsidies.  He faces former state rep Ken Goike, who opposed right to work, Common Core, Medicaid expansion, Proposal 1, and Hollywood subsidies, and supported a gas tax increase and electric choice.
10. Dr. Michael MacDonald seems to be the most credible candidate in a weak field.  Michael Shallal has a history of questionable statements, and Joseph Bogdan is running a gadfly campaign.
12. State rep Jim Tedder is more conservative than average in the state house, opposing Hollywood subsidies and supporting an income tax cut, constitutional carry, and pension reform.  He faces moderate state rep Michael McCready, who supported Common Core, Medicaid expansion, Proposal 1, Hollywood subsidies and opposed an income tax cut, constitutional carry and pension reform.  Vernon Molnar and Terry Whitney are also running.
14. Secretary of State Ruth Johnson has a solid conservative record in office.  She faces Katherine Houston in her bid to move down to the state senate.
15. State rep Jim Runestad is a conservative hero who voted against Proposal 1 and an increased gas tax.  Runestad has fundraised very well, and moderate former state rep Hugh Crawford dropped out of the race to seek reelection to the Oakland County Commission.  Michael Saari unofficially dropped out of the race after making inflammatory comments, but remains on the ballot.
19. State rep Dr. John Bizon has a somewhat moderate record, yet he opposed Hollywood subsidies and FoxConn subsidies and supported electric choice.  Former state rep Mike Callton has a liberal record, supporting Hollywood subsidies and opposing electric choice.  Significantly, Callton represented a safely Republican district, while Bizon represents the most democratic district held by a Republican.  Thus there is a chance that Bizon would vote more conservative in a safer district, while we have no reason to expect any better from Callton.
21. State rep Kim LaSata is an average conservative, supporting an income tax cut, constitutional carry, and pension reform.  She faces state rep Dave Pagel, who is one of the most liberal republicans in the state house, having supported Common Core, Medicaid expansion, and Proposal 1 and opposed electric choice, an income tax cut, constitutional carry, and pension reform.
22. State rep Lana Theis is a conservative star who opposed Proposal 1 and the gas tax increase.  She faces Joseph Converse Marinaro, who is running a gadfly campaign.
24. State rep Tom Barrett is a solid conservative who supported electric choice, an income tax cut, pension reform, and auto insurance reform, and opposed FoxConn subsidies.  He faces state rep Brett Roberts, who opposed electric choice, an income tax cut, pension reform, and auto insurance reform, and supported FoxConn subsidies.  Roberts has never been endorsed by Right to Life and represents only a small part of the district.
25. State rep Dan Lauwers, an average Republican, is unopposed for this seat.
26. State rep Bob Genetski is a solid conservative who was regularly rated most conservative in the state house.  He faces state rep Aric Nesbitt, an average Republican who supported Common Core and opposed electric choice.
29. State rep Chris Afendoulis has a moderate voting record, but is the only candidate running a serious campaign in a very vulnerable district.  Daniel Oesch has filed a reporting waiver.
30. This is traditionally the most Republican district in Michigan, but it has a history of electing relative moderates.  Three state reps are competing here.  Daniela Garcia has a very moderate record, opposing electric choice, an income tax cut, and auto insurance reform.  Her predecessor, Joe Haveman, is little better, voting for Medicaid expansion and Proposal 1.  Roger Victory is a more average Republican, who voted against Medicaid expansion and electric choice and for Proposal 1, an income tax cut, and auto insurance reform.  A better choice is conservative activist Rett DeBoer, who has volunteered for President Trump and Pat Colbeck.
31. State rep Gary Glenn is a conservative hero in the state house, opposing Proposal 1 and the gas tax and supporting electric choice.  He faces state rep Kevin Daley, who supported Proposal 1.
33. Former state rep Rick Outman is an average Republican who supported Common Core and Proposal 1 and opposed Medicaid expansion and electric choice.  He faces former state house candidate Greg Alexander.
34. State rep John Bumstead is somewhat more conservative here, voting against Common Core, Medicaid expansion, Proposal 1, and for increased speed limits and electric choice.  He faces state rep Holly Hughes, who opposed increased speed limits and electric choice.
35. State rep Ray Franz is a solid conservative who opposed Proposal 1.  He faces average Republican state rep Bruce Rendon, who supported Proposal 1, and state rep Curt VanderWall, who supported FoxConn subsidies.
37. Teacher Jim Gurr is running an uphill primary challenge to state senator Wayne Schmidt, who supported Proposal 1, Common Core, Medicaid expansion, the Amazon tax, increased gas tax, and FoxConn subsidies and opposed electric choice.  He also introduced legislation to legalize red light cameras.
38. State rep Ed McBroom is somewhat moderate, but has weak fundraising so far.  Mike Carey is a moderate with significant self-funding.  This district is vulnerable, as moderate democrat state rep Scott Dianda is running.

The Michigan state senate currently has two solid conservatives (Pat Colbeck and Joe Hune). This year, two (Runestad and Theis) are near certain to win, and four others (Barrett, Genetski, Glenn, and Franz) have decent chances to win.  Conservative donor looking to maximize their impact should support those four, and perhaps Tedder, LaSata, and DeBoer.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

2018 Michigan State House Races

Last updated May 6, 2018.

Cross-posted at The Western RightRight Michigan, and RRH Elections.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans won a 63-47 majority in 2016, the same margin as in 2014. There are 42 open seats, 25 held by Republicans and 17 held by democrats. There are 23 open due to term-limits, 18 just due to seeking another office, and 1 pure retirement.

Democrats are hoping to take control of the state house. They may benefit from anti-Trump enthusiasm.  In some seats, the candidate fields have yet to take shape. Libertarians achieved major party status due to Gary Johnson's showing in 2016, which makes it easier for people to run as Libertarians.  Another factor is the fate of the bill eliminating straight ticket voting, which is currently tied up in court.

The last two cycles have seen contests between moderate and conservative factions in the house GOP, won by the conservatives narrowly in 2014 and more decisively in 2016.  This time, the house GOP candidate recruitment is solidly in the hands of conservatives, and conservative Lee Chatfield is the presumptive next house GOP leader.  There are still likely to be some ideological battles, particularly in districts vacated by moderate incumbents.

Republican Michigander has a profile of the Michigan state house focusing more on district demographics.





The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012, 2014, and 2016 state house results, 2012 Romney %, 2016 Trump % (if known), and political rating.  Candidates are designated as conservative (C), moderate (M), establishment (E), or antiestablishment (A) if this is known.

1. (Tenisha Yancey) [Detroit] 29-71, 31-69, 32-68, R23.5%, Safe D
Brian Banks resigned following another felony conviction.  He was succeeded by Tenisha Yancey.
2. (OPEN-Bettie Cook Scott) [Detroit] 26-72, 33-67, 28-72, 23.8%, Safe D
3. (Wendell Byrd) [Detroit] 3-96, 3-97, 3-97, 1.6%, Safe D
4. (OPEN-Rose Robinson) [Detroit] 5-95, 5-95, 5-95, 3.4%, Safe D
(D) An incredible 14 D candidates are running for this seat.
5. (Fred Durhal III) [Detroit] 6-94, 5-95, 7-93, 2.7%, Safe D
6. (OPEN-Stephanie Chang) [Detroit] 5-92, 6-94, 7-93, 5.3%, Safe D
(D) Ten Ds are running for this seat.
7. (LaTanya Garrett) [Detroit] 2-98, 2-98, 2-98, 0.9%, Safe D
8. (Sherry Gay-Dagnogo) [Detroit] 3-97, 3-97, 4-96, 2%, Safe D
9. (OPEN-Sylvia Santana) [Detroit] 5-95, 4-96, 6-94, 3.3%, Safe D
10. (Leslie Love) [Detroit] 14-86, 18-82, 15-82, 16.4%, Safe D
11. (Jewell Jones) [Inkster, Garden City] 28-72, 30-70, 36-64, R29.3%, T34.8%, Safe D
12. (OPEN-Erika Geiss) [Taylor, Romulus] 25-75, 30-70, 33-67, 39-61, R29.5%, T38.9%, Safe D
13. (Frank Liberati) [Southgate, Allen Park, Dearborn Heights] 35-65, 39-61, R40.3%, T46.7%, Safe D
14. (Cara Clemente) [Riverview, Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, Melvindale] 26-71, 30-70, 36-64, R34.9%, T44.3%, Safe D
15. (Abdullah Hammoud) [Dearborn] 25-75, 32-68, 38-62, R33.5%, T31%, Safe D
16. (OPEN-Robert Kosowski) [Westland, Wayne] 28-68, 32-68, 36-64, R33.3%, T38.7%, Safe D
17. (Joe Bellino) [N Monroe, Sumpter, Huron] 39-61, 40-60, 52.2-44.3, R45.3%, T56.3%, Tossup
Republican Joseph Bellino pulled off a shocking upset against D Bill LaVoy in a district that swung heavily to Trump. Lavoy's wife Michelle is running this time.
18. (Kevin Hertel) [St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe] 34-64, 38-62, 37-63, R40.7%, T44.9%, Safe D
19. (OPEN-Laura Cox) [Livonia] 60-40, 62-38, 61-39, R52%, T51.1%, Lean R
(R) Livonia city councilman Brian Meakin is unopposed for the R nomination.
20. (Jeff Noble) [Plymouth, Northville] 56-44, 60-40, 53.6-46.4, R51.8%, T45.7%, Lean R
21. (Kristy Pagan) [Canton, Van Buren] 38-62, 45-55, 41-59, R43.3%, Safe D
22. (John Chirkun) [Roseville, E Warren] 30-70, 32-64, 35-60, R36.2%, Safe D
23. (Darin Calmilleri) [SE Wayne] 50.5-49.5, 52.1-47.9, 49.7-50.3, R47.5%, T53.8%, Lean D
24. (Steve Marino) [Harrison, N Clinton, SW Macomb] 54.7-45.3, 59-39, 55-45, R47.5%, T56%, Lean R
25. (OPEN-Henry Yanez) [E Sterling Heights, NC Warren] 48.6-51.4, 46.5-53.5, 46-54, R47.8%, T52.5%, Lean D
R Jazmine Early will face D Nate Shannon for this competitive seat.
26. (Jim Ellison) [Royal Oak, Madison Heights] 36-60, 39-61, 41-59, R40.3%, T37.5%, Safe D
27. (Robert Whittenberg) [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park] 20-76, 24-76, 23-77, R24.8%, T23.3%, Safe D
28. (Patrick Green) [W Warren, Center Line] 21-79, 36-64, 34-66, R35.8%, Safe D
29. (OPEN-Tim Greimel) [Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Orchard Lake] 23-77, 26-74, 25-71, R23.9%, T26.7%, Safe D
30. (Diana Farrington) [W Sterling Heights, Utica, SE Shelby] 53.3-46.7, 55-45, 54-46, R51.5%, T57.1%, Lean R
31. (William Sowerby) [S Clinton, Fraser, Mt. Clemens] 34-62, 39-61, 39-56, R41.8%, T48.1%, Safe D
32. (Pamela Hornberger) [Chesterfield, C St. Clair] 59-41, 62-38, 64-36, R53.9%, T64.5%, Safe R
33. (Jeff Yaroch) [NE Macomb, Macomb Twp.] 62-38, 66-34, 70-30, R56.2%, T63.8%, Safe R
34. (Sheldon Neeley) [Flint] 13-87, 9-91, 11-89, R8.3%, Safe D
35. (OPEN-Jeremy Moss) [Southfield] 17-83, 17-83, 16-84, R17.6%, T15.7%, Safe D
(D) State senator Vincent Gregory is seeking a third and final state house term.  He one of six Ds running for this seat.
36. (OPEN-Peter Lucido) [Shelby, Washington, Bruce] 64-36, 70-30, 72-28, R61%, T65.7%, Safe R
(R) Scott Czasak, a staffer for rep Lucido, is seeking this seat.  Frank Lams, Karen Potchynok-Lund, Tom Stanis, and Douglas Wozniak are also seeking the R nomination.
37. (Kristine Greig) [Farmington] 38-62, 43-57, 36-61, R40.3%, T35.6%, Safe D
38. (Kathy Crawford) [Novi, Lyon] 59-41, 63-37, 58-42, R53.6%, T49.4%, Safe R
39. (OPEN-Klint Kesto) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom] 53.3-46.7, 52.3-47.7, 50.4-42.2, R51.5%, T50.4%, Tossup
(R) Ryan Berman, Phillip Hoyt, Marsha Kosmatka, and Kevin Tatulyan are seeking the R nomination.
40. (OPEN-Michael McCready) [Bloomfield, Birmingham, E West Bloomfield] 57-41, 58-42, 53.5-46.5, R52.8%, T42.7%, Tossup
(R) Mike Banerian, Malissa Bossardet, Paul Secrest, Paul Taros, David Wolkinson, and Joe Zane are running.  Wolkinson (C), a conservative former state GOP official, finished a close second in the 2012 primary for this seat.
41. (OPEN-Martin Howrylak) [Troy, Clawson] 50.5-49.5, 56-44, 56-44, R51.6%, T47%, Tossup
(R) County commissioner and former Troy councilman Doug Tietz (C), who worked on the MCRI in 2006, is running here.  Also running are Troy councilman Ethan Baker and Ronald Dwyer.
42. (OPEN-Lana Theis) [SE Livingston] 63-33, 65-35, 64-32, R60.2%, T59.3%, Safe R
(R) Brighton Township Trustee Ann Bollin (C) is unopposed for the R nomination.
43. (OPEN-Jim Tedder) [Waterford, Independence] 66-34, 58-42, 66-34, R54.8%, T56.8%, Safe R
(R) Independence Township Trustees Jose Aliaga (C) and Andrea Schroder, who finished third and second in the 2014 primary, are running again.  Waterford Township Trustee Anthony Bartolotta is also running.
44. (OPEN-Jim Runestad) [Springfield, White Lake, Highland, Milford] 63-33, 68-32, 69-31, R59.1%, T60.6%, Safe R
(R) Tea Party leader and Trump supporter Matt Maddock (AC), who narrowly lost a challenge to state sen Mike Kowall in 2014, is the favorite here.  He faces April Guiles, Michael Mamut, Matt Marko, and Lynn O'Brien.
45. (Michael Webber) [Rochester, S Oakland Twp] 56-44, 56-44, 62-38, R55.9%, T51.5%, Safe R
46. (John Reilly) [NE Oakland] 64-36, 69-31, 69-31, R60.1%, T61.1%, Safe R
47. (Henry Vaupel) [N Livingston] 64-32, 69-27, 68-27, R62.5%, T65.1%, Safe R
48. (OPEN-Pam Faris) [NE Genesee] 36-64, 38-62, 46-54, R39.8%, T51.8%, Safe D
49. (OPEN-Phil Phelps) [Flint Twp., Mt. Morris, SW Flint] 25-75, 26-74, 32-68, R28.8%, Safe D
(D) John Cherry, son of the former LG, is one of six Ds running here.
50. (Tim Sneller) [Burton, Grand Blanc, Mundy] 39-61, 41-59, 48-52, R42.7%, T47.9%, Safe D
51. (Joe Graves) [W Genesee, Fenton, NW Oakland] 54.3-45.7, 58-42, 61-34, R53.1%, T59.1%, Safe R
(R) Michael Anderton, Mike Mueller, county commissioner Drew Shapiro, and Ian Shetron are running.
52. (Donna Lasinski) [W Washtenaw] 47-53, 44-56, 44.7-52.2, R47.5%, T42.5%, Safe D
53. (Yousef Rabhi) [Ann Arbor] 19-81, 18-82, 16-80, R19.5%, Safe D
54. (Ronnie Peterson) [Ypsilanti] 23-77, 25-75, 25-75, R23.8%, T23.1%, Safe D
55. (OPEN-Adam Zemke) [Pittsfield, NE Ann Arbor, York, Augusta] 32-65, 32-68, 31-69, R31.6%, Safe D
(D) State senator Rebekah Warren is running for a third and final state house term.  She faces Shauna McNally
56. (Jason Sheppard) [S Monroe] 58-42, 50.3-47.1, 58-39, R50.6%, T59.2%, Lean R
57. (Bronna Khale) [Lenawee] 52.5-47.5, 59-41, 56-44, R49.9%, T57.2%, Lean R
58. (Eric Leutheuser) [Branch, Hillsdale] 70-30, 71-29, 75-25, R60.1%, T68.8%, Safe R
59. (Aaron Miller) [St. Joseph, E Cass] 62-38, 62-38, 67-33, R54.7%, T62%, Safe R
60. (Jon Hoadley) [Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp.] 26-74, 30-70, 25-69, R26.8%, T24%, Safe D
61. (Brandt Iden) [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] 58-42, 48.4-42.7, 49.4-44.7, R49.1%, T44.9%, Tossup
Iden, who hurt himself by lying about a DUI in 2014, has been attacked for his support of Trump (he was a national delegate) but got good PR for his mass shooting alert bill.
(D) Alberta Griffin, Corey Kendall, and Thomas Whitener are seeking the D nomination.
62. (OPEN-John Bizon) [Battle Creek, Albion, N Calhoun] 42-58, 51.2-48.8, 48-47.5, R43.8%, T48.4%, Lean D
Bizon, who is running for state senate, narrowly beat D Calhoun County Commissioner Jim Haadsma in 2016.  Haadsma is running again.  Dave Morgan, former Calhoun D chairman and state house candidate turned R Pennfield Township Supervisor, is running.
63. (David Maturen) [E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun] 50.9-49.1, 56-44, 61-33, R54.6%, T57.5%, Safe R
(R) Maturen, one of the most moderate Rs in the legislature, is being challenged by Richland Township Trustee Paul Foust and MI GOP activist Matt Hall.
64. (Julie Alexander) [Jackson city, W Jackson] 56-44, 61-39, 63-37, R51.2%, T54%, Safe R
65. (OPEN-Brett Roberts) [N Jackson, SE Eaton] 57-43, 57-40, 61-35, R53.4%, T59.8%, Safe R
(R) Jackson county commissioners Sarah Lightner and Carl Rice are running, along with Todd Brittain and Matt Eyer.
66. (Beth Griffin) [Van Buren, Cooper, Alamo, Parchment] 59-41, 57-43, 54.3-45.7, R49.7%, T53.5%, Safe R
67. (OPEN-Tom Cochran) [S Ingham] 44-56, 46-54, 45.4-54.6, R44.8%, T44.7%, Safe D
68. (OPEN-Andy Schor) [Lansing] 23-77, 23-77, 22-73, R24.6%, T24.1%, Safe D
(D) Schor vacated this seat after his election as Mayor of Lansing.  Former R state rep Paul DeWeese (98-02) is one of seven Ds running.
69. (OPEN-Sam Singh) [East Lansing, Meridian] 35-65, 32-68, 32-68, R35.9%, T28.9%, Safe D
70. (James Lower) [Montcalm, N Gratiot] 54.5-45.5, 62-38, 63-32, R52.6%, T61.8%, Safe R
71. (OPEN-Tom Barrett) [Eaton] 46.6-53.4, 50.4-49.6, 54-43, R47.3%, T48.1%, Tossup
(R) Eaton County commissioner Christine Barnes, Chuck Cascarilla, Chris Stewart, and Clarissa Trevino are running.
72. (Steven Johnson) [Kentwood, Gaines, NE Allegan] 59-38, 68-32, 59-41, R56.3%, T51.7%, Safe R
(R) Johnson, a libertarian conservative in the mold of Justin Amash, is being challenged by Wayland Mayor pro tem Jennifer Antel.
73. (OPEN-Chris Afendoulis) [Grand Rapids Twp, Plainfield, NE Kent] 64-32, 68-32, 64-32, R60.9%, T55.5%, Safe R
(R) Lynn Afendoulis, wife of the incumbent, faces Ken Fortier, Robert Regan, and David Spencer.
74. (OPEN-Rob Verhuelen) [Grandville, Walker, Alpine, NW Kent] 66-34, 69-31, 64-31, R60.4%, T58.8%, Safe R
(R) Mark Huizenga, mayor of Walker, is unopposed for the R nomination.
75. (Dave LaGrand) [central Grand Rapids] 24-76, 26-74, 24-76, R23.8%, Safe D
76. (OPEN-Winnie Brinks) [peripheral Grand Rapids] 39-52, 45.6-52.1, 39-57, R44.2%, Safe D
R Amanda Brand faces D Rachel Hood for this seat.
77. (Tommy Brann) [Wyoming, Byron] 60-36, 67-33, 66-34, R58.3%, T54.2%, Safe R
78. (OPEN-Dave Pagel) [S Berrien, SW Cass] 61-39, 67-33, 68-32, R56.1%, T58.9%, Safe R
(R) Niles city councilman David Mann (C), Steve Bury, Dana Daniels, Daniel Hinkle, Brad Paquette, and Kelly Priede are running.
79. (OPEN-Kim LaSata) [N Berrien] 52.8-45.7, 59-39, 59-38, R51.5%, T51.4%, Lean R
(R) Kim LaSata is running for state senate. JoAnn DeMuelenaere, Bruce Gorenflo, Maria Moen, Troy Rolling, and Pauline Wendzel are running.
80. (Mary Whiteford) [Allegan] 62-38, 63-34, 67-28, R57.6%, T59.8%, Safe R
81. (OPEN-Dan Lauwers) [NW, E St. Clair] 53.8-46.2, 65-35, 69-31, R55%, T65.6%, Safe R
(R) Eight candidates are running:  Gary Eisen, who finished second in 2012, John Mahaney, Kenneth Nicholl, Michael Pratt, Eric Stocker, Dan Tollis, Dan Turke, and Joel Willaims.
82. (Gary Howell) [Lapeer] 59-41, 55-45, 69-31, R55.1%, T66.5%, Safe R
83. (Shane Hernandez) [Sanilac, Port Huron] 56-44, 62-38, 63-34, R52.5%, T60.8%, Safe R
84. (OPEN-Edward Canfield) [Tuscola, Huron] 38-53, 59-41, 65-35, R55.6%, T66.6%, Safe R
Canfield is retiring after two terms for personal reasons.
(R) Matthew Bierlein, Phil Green, and Dean Smith are running.
85. (Ben Frederick) [Shiawassee, W Saginaw] 54-40, 53-43, 56-34, R48.9%, T57.9%, Safe R
86. (Thomas Albert) [SE Kent, N Ionia] 70-30, 66-34, 60-35, R63%, T58.6%, Safe R
87. (Julie Calley) [Barry, S Ionia] 62-35, 67-33, 67-28, R58.7%, T63.5%, Safe R
88. (OPEN-Roger Victory) [NE Ottawa] 87-0, 80-20, 75-25, R72.9%, T68.1%, Safe R
(R) Michael Bosch, Brent Huddleston, Luke Meerman, and Jason Minier are running.
89. (Jim Lilly) [W Ottawa] 66-34, 68-32, 61-34, R61.6%, T57.6%, Safe R
90. (OPEN-Daniela Garcia) [Holland] 100-0, 78-22, 73-27, R66.5%, T60.4%, Safe R
(R) Ottawa County Treasurer is the favorite over Orlando Estrada.
91. (OPEN-Holly Hughes) [S, W Muskegon] 47.3-48.1, 46.5-46.3, 49.3-43.7, R48.5%, T54.1%, Tossup
(R) Congressional staffer Greg VanWoerkom, son of state senator (02-10) Jerry VanWoerkom, faces Alan Jager.
92. (Terry Sabo) [Muskegon city] 27-73, 33-67, 32-68, R31.3%, T36.3%, Safe D
93. (OPEN-Tom Leonard) [S Gratiot, Clinton] 57-43, 56-35, 62-33, R52.9%, T55.1%, Safe R
(R) Madhu Anderson, Assistant AG Graham Filler, and county commissioner Anne Hill are running.
94. (OPEN-Tim Kelly) [Saginaw Twp, E Saginaw] 56-44, 62-38, 65-35, R55.7%, T57.7%, Safe R
(R) Steven Gerhardt, Rick Riebschleger, and Rodney Wakeman are running.
95. (Vanessa Guerra) [Saginaw city] 22-78, 24-76, 26-74, R24.8%, T29.8%, Safe D
96. (Brian Elder) [Bay] 31-69, 32-68, 42-58, R45.3%, T51.5%, Safe D
97. (Jason Wentworth) [Arenac, Gladwin, Clare, E Osceola] 62-38, 63-37, 65-35, R53.2%, T65.1%, Safe R
98. (OPEN-Gary Glenn) [C Midland, N Bay] 59-41, 55-45, 60-40, R56%, T56%, Safe R
(R) Annette Glenn, wife of the incumbent, is favored over Carl Hamann, who is not running a serious campaign.
99. (Roger Hauck) [Isabella, W Midland] 57-43, 51.5-48.5, 54.6-45.4, R48.1%, T52.8%, Tossup
100. (Scott VanSingel) [Newaygo, Oceana, Lake] 62-38, 63-37, 67-33, R55.5%, T64.2%, Safe R
101. (OPEN-Curt VanderWall) [Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Mason] 51-49, 50.4-49.6, 54-46, R50.7%, T54%, Tossup
(R) Carolyn Cater and Jack O'Malley are seeking this seat.
102. (Michelle Hoitenga) [Wexford, W Osceola, Mecosta] 54.8-45.2, 60-40, 69-31, R56.3%, T63.4%, Safe R
103. (Daire Rendon) [Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw] 52.8-47.2, 60-34, 58-42, R55.9%, T66.4%, Safe R
104. (Larry Inman) [Grand Traverse] 57-43, 53.2-46.8, 51.4-43.2, R55.4%, T53.1%, Lean R
105. (Triston Cole) [Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda] 67-33, 63-37, 70-30, R58.5%, T63.8%, Safe R
106. (Sue Allor) [E Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco] 52.2-45.3, 55-45, 61-35, R53.6%, T63.2%, Safe R
107. (Lee Chatfield) [Emmet, Mackinac, Chippewa, N Cheboygan] 58-42, 61-39, 67-33, R55.5%, T58.9%, Safe R
(R) Chatfield is the favorite to be Republican leader next term.  He faces a primary challenge from Bruce Newville.
108. (Beau LaFave) [Delta, Menominee, Dickinson] 54.6-45.4, 60-40, 52.7-47.3, R54.6%, T62.2%, Lean R
109. (Sara Cambensy) [Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, Luce] 42-58, 34-66, 34-62, R45.4%, T48.7%, Safe D
Cambensey, who lost a primary challenge to John Kivela in 2016, won a special election to replace Kivela after his suicide.
110. (OPEN-Scott Dianda) [W Upper Peninsula] 48.4-51.6, 39-61, 39-61, R51.6%, T56.5%, Tossup
(R) Keith LaCosse, Gregory Markkanen, Kirk Schott, and Brady Tervo are running.

Safe D Ratings:
Safe D: 44
Lean D: 3 (23, 25, 62)
Tossup: 10 (17, 39, 40, 41, 61, 71, 91, 99, 101, 110)
Lean R: 10 (19, 20, 24, 30, 56, 57, 66, 79, 104, 108)
Safe R: 43

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

January 2018 Michigan State Senate Fundraising

January 31 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Some races are already well-developed, while in others, candidates have only recently declared or have yet to declare.  Here are summaries of the total amount raised in Michigan state senate districts.  Totals include state house committees for state representatives. Cash on hand is in parentheses when significantly less than the total raised.

3. (D) Santana 91K Woronchak 2K
6. (D) Kosowski 69K Geiss 16K
7. (R) Cox 95K (D) Qadir 98K
8. (R) Lucido 130K
9. (D) Lane 101K Wojno 8K
10. (R) Shallal 36K (D) Yanez 66K
11. (D) Moss 23K (5K)
12. (R) Tedder 73K (36K)
13. (R) Knollenberg 143K (54K)
14. (R) Johnson 35K (21K)
15. (R) Runestad 190K (151K) Crawford 46K (18K)
16. (R) Shirkey 123K
17. (R) Zorn 143K (83K)
18. (D) Irwin 66K Zemke 22K
19. (R) Callton 242K (115K) Bizon 211K
20. (R) O'Brien 213K (147K) McCann 30K
21. (R) Pscholka 65K
22. (R) Theis 80K (51K)
24. (R) Barrett 61K Roberts 25K (7K) (D) Rossman-McKinney 180K (150K)
25. (R) Lauwers 47K
26. (R) Genetski 192K Nesbitt 74K
28. (R) MacGregor 181K (83K)
29. (R) Afendoulis 220K (D) Brinks 139K
30. (R) Garcia 172K Haveman 32K Victory 77K
31. (R) Glenn 115K Daley 61K (D) Luczak 9K
32. (R) Horn 186K (109K)
33. (R) Outman 14K
34. (R) Bumstead 137K (76K) Hughes 806K (300K)
35. (R) Franz 27K Rendon 57K (21K)
36. (R) Stamas 233K (109K)
37. (R) Schmidt 265K (60K)
38. (R) McBroom 27K (11K) (D) Dianda 100K (80K)