Thursday, July 11, 2024

2024 Michigan Congressional Races

This post was last updated on August 10, 2024.

Michigan's 13 congressional districts are up for election in 2024.  Michigan's congressional map was drawn by Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew some poor lines, and skewed districts 3 and 8 to the left in the name of partisan fairness, but also created districts (7 and 10) that are winnable for each side.

Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Approved


The map above is from the page at RRH Elections linked below, which also has individual district maps.


Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and 538.

Michigan Congressional Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan Congressional Map-538

There are two open seats (7 and 8).  There will also be several interesting general election races.  Consider the districts in detail.

The election data for each district is the R candidates for 2022 congressional results (R-D), President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)

District 1  (Upper Peninsula, northern Lower Peninsula) Safe R
60-37 P16: 59 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 59
Retired general Jack Bergman was first elected in 2016. He broke a term limits pledge in 2022, and is running again this year.  When he does retire, a troll (below the bridge) candidate may finally win the seat.  Josh Saul is also seeking the R nomination.  Callie Barr is the D nominee, defeating Bob Lorinser, the 2022 D nominee.

District 2  (West Michigan coast, central MI) Safe R
64-34 P16: 61 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 63
John Moolenaar ran here in 2022 after previously representing a district based in Midland.  Michael Lynch is the D nominee.

District 3 (Grand Rapids, north Ottawa, Muskegon) Likely D
42-55 P16: 46.6 G18: 44.9 AG18: 47.8 P20: 44.8
Old MI-2 was split into three pieces.  23% went to new 2, 51% went to new 3, and 26% went to new 4.  The core of old 3 in Kent County was merged with half of old 2.  New 3 dropped heavily R rural Kent, Barry, Ionia, and Calhoun.  It added Kentwood (D), Wyoming (lean R), N Ottawa (R), and the city of Muskegon (D), moving about 6% left.  This is a pro-D gerrymander in the name of "partisan fairness".
Attorney Hillary Scholten (D) won in 2022 after losing by 6% in 2020.  
Attorney Paul Hudson (R), who previously ran for MI Supreme Court in 2022, is the R nominee.  He defeated Michael Markey 55-45.

District 4 (Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Holland) Safe R
54-42 P16: 51.6 G18: 49.4 AG18: 52.3 P20: 51
Ottawa county congressman Bill Huizenga ran here in 2022.  He eventually won the Trump endorsement, and incumbent Fred Upton, who had voted for impeachment, decided to retire.  Engineer and Ottawa County GOP chair Brendan Muir is also seeking the R nomination on an antiestablishment platform.  The D nominee is lawyer Jessica Swartz.

District 5 (South-central Michigan, lower tier) Safe R
62-35 P16: 60 G18: 55 AG18: 58 P20: 61
Republican Tim Walberg has become increasingly entrenched since his comeback in 2010, and he is now the longest-serving house member from Michigan.  Libbi Urban is the D nominee.

District 6 (Washtenaw, plus south and west Wayne) Safe D
34-66 P16: 37 G18: 35 AG18: 36 P20: 36
In 2014, democrat Debbie Dingell easily replaced her husband John Dingell in Congress after his 58 years (!) in office.  Debbie Dingell moved here from Dearborn, since she represented the bulk of this territory.  Heather Smiley is the R nominee.

District 7 (Ingham, Livingston, Eaton, Clinton, Schiawassee) Tossup
46.3-51.7 P16: 48.9 G18: 44.2 AG18: 48 P20: 48.7
This is a highly competitive district containing Lansing and surrounding counties.  It contains the core of old 8 (Ingham and Livingston), which was drawn to lean R.  It added lean R areas from old 4 and 7, while losing R (but D-trending) areas in Oakland.  Former DOD official Elissa Slotkin (D), who was elected 2018, is retiring to run for senate.  The R candidate is conservative state senator (18-22) and veteran Tom Barrett, who lost a close race against Slotkin in 2022.

District 8 (Genesee, Saginaw, Bay, Midland) Lean D
43-53 P16: 46.9 G18: 42.5 AG18: 45.8 P20: 48.2
This succeeds old 5, adding the rest of Saginaw County and the city of Midland.  While the district moved about 1% right, this is basically the best configuration Ds short of adding Lansing to the district.  This is another example of gerrymandering by the commission.  Former Genesee Treasurer Dan Kildee (D), who succeeded his uncle Dale Kildee in 2012, is retiring.  
State senator Kristen McDonald Rivet was elected to a swingy district containing the tri-cities (Saginaw, Midland, Bay City) in 2022.  She is the wife of state rep (98-04) and Bay County Drain Commissioner (04-20) Joe Rivet, and has the bulk of D establishment support.  She defeated Flint mayor (87-91) Matt Collier and MSU board member (14-P) Pamela Pugh for the D nomination.
The R nominee is television anchor and Trump USCIS official Paul Junge (R), who lost old 8 to Elissa Slotkin by 4% in 2020, moved here and lost the general in 2022.  He won 75%, defeating Dow executive Mary Draves and Anthony Hudson.

District 9 (The Thumb, N Oakland, N Macomb) Safe R
64-33 P16: 64 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 64
Self-funding businesswoman Lisa McClain (R) was elected in 2020.  Clinton St Mosley is the D nominee.

District 10 (S Macomb, Rochester Hills) Lean R
48.8-48.3 P16: 50.4 G18: 44.4 AG18: 46.6 P20: 49.8
Veteran and businessman John James, the R US Senate nominee in 2018 and 2020, easily won the R nomination in 2022 and barely won the general election.
Former prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga, who was the 2022 D nominee, won the D nomination again at age 77.  He defeated former state house candidate Emily Busch, state board of education member (18-P) Tiffany Tilley, and financial adviser Diane Young.

District 11 (Central Oakland) Safe D
39-61 P16: 41 G18: 38 AG18: 39 P20: 39
Businesswoman Haley Stevens (D) was elected in 2018, and defeated fellow incumbent Andy Levin in 2022.  Nick Somberg won the R nomination.

District 12 (W Detroit, Southfield, Livonia, Dearborn, Westland) Safe D
26-71 P16: 25 G18: 22 AG18: 24 P20: 25
The commission decided to reduce MI from two black-majority districts to none, with both new 12 and 13 now about 46% black.  New 12 combines parts of old 13 and 14.  Former state rep. (08-14) Rashida Tlaib (D) was elected to a district based in eastern Detroit in 2018.  After incumbent Brenda Lawrence announced her retirement, Tlaib announced that she would run here.  
Tlaib is a Muslim member of "the squad" who has made national news due to her anti-Semitic remarks and sympathy for Hamas.  While there was talk of a primary challenge by a more mainstream D in a district with a significant black population, no challenger made the ballot.
James Hooper won the R nomination.

District 13 (E Detroit, Downriver, Romulus) Safe D
24-71 P16: 23 G18: 21 AG18: 22 P20: 25
This district was vacated by Rashida Tlaib in 2022.  State rep (20-22) Shri Thanedar, a wealthy Indian businessman who moved to north Detroit, won an 11-way primary in 2022.  Thanedar won with 28% to 24% for state senator Adam Hollier.  The local D establishment is unhappy with Thanedar, in part because he isn't black.  Hollier ran for the seat this year and attracted substantial support, but was removed from the ballot due to significant fraud on his nominating petitions.  Thanedar defeated former state rep (2000-06) and Detroit City Council member (21-P) Mary Waters and Shakira Hawkins 54-34-11.
Martell Blivings is again the R nominee after losing in 2022.

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