Wednesday, July 17, 2024

2024 Kalamazoo County Commission Races

This post was last updated July 17, 2024.

Democrats won a 6-3 majority on the Kalamazoo County Commission in 2022, which was a bad year for Republicans.  The Kalamazoo redistricting commission, which is dominated by D countywide elected officials, drew a new district map that is a soft D gerrymander, which is likely to produce 6 D and 3 R seats in most years.  No commissioners are retiring this year.

The following post has detailed descriptions of the districts and their political leanings. The numbers given are the 2022 election result and percentages for Trump (2016), O'Brien (2018), Trump (2020), and Balkema (2020).  Incumbents are marked below with asterisks.


List of Kalamazoo County Candidates

District 1 [N Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
0-100 T16 20.3, O18 21.3, T20 21.5, B20 28.6
Democrat: Tami Rey*
Republican: Douglas Olivares
This is the majority minority district.  Property manager Tami Rey won this seat in 2020 after Stephanie Moore vacated it for an unsuccessful race for state house.

District 2 [Westwood, WMU] Safe Democrat
0-100 T16 30.3, O18 30.2, T20 26.7, B20 34.5
Democrat: Jen Strebs*
Republican: Gary Mitchell, Andrew Smith
This district includes the WMU area of Kalamazoo.  Kalamazoo Township Board member Jen Strebs defeated longtime commissioner Michael Seals (10-20) in the 2020 D primary.  Mitchell was a 2022 state house candidate.

District 3 [SW, SE Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
22-78 T16 24.7, O18 25.2, T20 22, B20 31.4
Democrat: Monteze Morales*
Republican: Ron Austin
Monteze Morales was appointed in June 2021 to replace Zac Bauer, who resigned after being appointed in 2019.  She previously lost the 2020 D primary to Bauer.  Morales was elected to this district after Tracy Hall retired in 2022.

District 4 [W Portage] Safe Democrat
42-58 T16 44.7, O18 47, T20 39.9, B20 49.5
Democrat: Abigail Wheeler*
Republican: Jason Mikkelborg
Portage used to be R territory, but it moved left under President Trump.  Abigail Wheeler was a Mattawan trustee who lost a race for state house in 2020, and then moved to Portage.  She succeeded Michael Quinn in 2022.

District 5 [E Portage] Safe Democrat
43-57 T16 43.3, O18 45.1, T20 39.9, B20 48.3
Democrat: John Patrick Taylor*
Republican: none
Portage used to be R territory, but it moved left under President Trump.  Meredith Place (18-20), the wife of longtime commissioner John Patrick Taylor (02-16), was elected Kalamazoo County Clerk in 2020.  Fran Melgar was elected in 2020 and retired in 2022.  Taylor was elected here after previously representing the city of Kalamazoo.

District 6 [Comstock, Pavilion, Brady, Climax, Wakeshma] Safe Republican
57-43 T16 56.2, O18 57.2, T20 53.4, B20 61.1
Democrat: none
Republican: John Gisler*
Commissioner John Gisler (10-12, 14-P) has represented the southern townships for the last decade.

District 7 [Cooper, Richland, Ross, Charleston, Galesburg, and Parchment] Safe Republican
55-45 T16 58.3, O18 58.4, T20 55.8, B20 62.2
Democrat: Andy Davis
Republican: Jeff Heppler*
Heppler (02-16, 20-P) lost a race for sheriff in 2016.  He defeated appointed incumbent Jen Aniano (D) to return in 2020.

District 8 [Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] Safe Republican
53.7-46.3 T16 56.3, O18 58.3, T20 51.2, B20 61.1
Democrat: Matthew Miller
Republican: Wendy Mazer*
Texas Township Trustee Wendy Mazer, a solid conservative, was elected in 2022.

District 9 [Oshtemo, Alamo] Lean Democrat
44.3-55.7 T16 43.7, O18 45.9, T20 41.5, B20 50.0
Democrat: Dale Deleeuw*
Republican: Nicole Wagner
Former police officer Dale Deleeuw was elected in 2022.  He succeeded Dale Shugars, who did not seek reelection.

Thursday, July 11, 2024

2024 Michigan Congressional Races

This post was last updated on July 11, 2024.

Michigan's 13 congressional districts are up for election in 2024.  Michigan's congressional map was drawn by Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew some poor lines, and skewed districts 3 and 8 to the left in the name of partisan fairness, but also created districts (7 and 10) that are winnable for each side.

Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Approved


The map above is from the page at RRH Elections linked below, which also has individual district maps.


Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and 538.

Michigan Congressional Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan Congressional Map-538

There are two open seats (7 and 8).  There will also be several interesting general election races.  Consider the districts in detail.

The election data for each district is the R candidates for 2022 congressional results (R-D), President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)

District 1  (Upper Peninsula, northern Lower Peninsula) Safe R
60-37 P16: 59 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 59
Retired general Jack Bergman was first elected in 2016. He broke a term limits pledge in 2022, and is running again this year.  When he does retire, a troll (below the bridge) candidate may finally win the seat.  Josh Saul is also seeking the R nomination.  Bob Lorinser is running again after losing to Bergman in 2022.  Callie Barr is also seeking the D nomination.

District 2  (West Michigan coast, central MI) Safe R
64-34 P16: 61 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 63
John Moolenaar ran here in 2022 after previously representing a district based in Midland.  Michael Lynch is the D nominee.

District 3 (Grand Rapids, north Ottawa, Muskegon) Likely D
42-55 P16: 46.6 G18: 44.9 AG18: 47.8 P20: 44.8
Old MI-2 was split into three pieces.  23% went to new 2, 51% went to new 3, and 26% went to new 4.  The core of old 3 in Kent County was merged with half of old 2.  New 3 dropped heavily R rural Kent, Barry, Ionia, and Calhoun.  It added Kentwood (D), Wyoming (lean R), N Ottawa (R), and the city of Muskegon (D), moving about 6% left.  This is a pro-D gerrymander in the name of "partisan fairness".
Attorney Hillary Scholten (D) won in 2022 after losing by 6% in 2020.  Salim Al-Shatel is also seeking the D nomination.  Attorney Paul Hudson (R), who previously ran for MI Supreme Court in 2022, seems to have most establishment support.  Michael Markey, who ran for governor in 2022 but was disqualified, is also seeking the R nomination.

District 4 (Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Holland) Safe R
54-42 P16: 51.6 G18: 49.4 AG18: 52.3 P20: 51
Ottawa county congressman Bill Huizenga ran here in 2022.  He eventually won the Trump endorsement, and incumbent Fred Upton, who had voted for impeachment, decided to retire.  Engineer and Ottawa County GOP chair Brendan Muir is also seeking the R nomination on an antiestablishment platform.  The D nominee will be lawyer Jessica Swartz.

District 5 (South-central Michigan, lower tier) Safe R
62-35 P16: 60 G18: 55 AG18: 58 P20: 61
Republican Tim Walberg has become increasingly entrenched since his comeback in 2010, and he is now the longest-serving house member from Michigan.  Libbi Urban will be the D nominee.

District 6 (Washtenaw, plus south and west Wayne) Safe D
34-66 P16: 37 G18: 35 AG18: 36 P20: 36
In 2014, democrat Debbie Dingell easily replaced her husband John Dingell in Congress after his 58 years (!) in office.  Debbie Dingell moved here from Dearborn, since she represented the bulk of this territory.  Heather Smiley will be the R nominee.

District 7 (Ingham, Livingston, Eaton, Clinton, Schiawassee) Tossup
46.3-51.7 P16: 48.9 G18: 44.2 AG18: 48 P20: 48.7
This is a highly competitive district containing Lansing and surrounding counties.  It contains the core of old 8 (Ingham and Livingston), which was drawn to lean R.  It added lean R areas from old 4 and 7, while losing R (but D-trending) areas in Oakland.  Former DOD official Elissa Slotkin (D), who was elected 2018, is retiring to run for senate.  The R candidate is conservative state senator (18-22) and veteran Tom Barrett, who lost a close race against Slotkin in 2022.

District 8 (Genesee, Saginaw, Bay, Midland) Lean D
43-53 P16: 46.9 G18: 42.5 AG18: 45.8 P20: 48.2
This succeeds old 5, adding the rest of Saginaw County and the city of Midland.  While the district moved about 1% right, this is basically the best configuration Ds short of adding Lansing to the district.  This is another example of gerrymandering by the commission.  Former Genesee Treasurer Dan Kildee (D), who succeeded his uncle Dale Kildee in 2012, is retiring.  
State senator Kristen McDonald Rivet was elected to a swingy district containing the tri-cities (Saginaw, Midland, Bay City) in 2022.  She is the wife of state rep (98-04) and Bay County Drain Commissioner (04-20) Joe Rivet, and has the bulk of D establishment support. Also seeking the D nomination are Flint mayor (87-91) Matt Collier and MSU board member (14-P) Pamela Pugh.
Television anchor and Trump USCIS official Paul Junge (R), who lost old 8 to Elissa Slotkin by 4% in 2020, moved here and lost the general in 2022.  Dow executive Mary Draves and Anthony Hudson are also seeking the R nomination.

District 9 (The Thumb, N Oakland, N Macomb) Safe R
64-33 P16: 64 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 64
Self-funding businesswoman Lisa McClain (R) was elected in 2020.  Clinton St Mosley will be the D nominee.

District 10 (S Macomb, Rochester Hills) Lean R
48.8-48.3 P16: 50.4 G18: 44.4 AG18: 46.6 P20: 49.8
Veteran and businessman John James, the R US Senate nominee in 2018 and 2020, easily won the R nomination in 2022 and barely won the general election.
Former prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga, who was the 2022 D nominee, is running again at age 77.  Former state house candidate Emily Busch, state board of education member (18-P) Tiffany Tilley, and financial adviser Diane Young are also seeking the D nomination.

District 11 (Central Oakland) Safe D
39-61 P16: 41 G18: 38 AG18: 39 P20: 39
Businesswoman Haley Stevens (D) was elected in 2018, and defeated fellow incumbent Andy Levin in 2022.  Ahmed Ghanim is also seeking the D nomination.  Charles Frangie and Nick Somberg are seeking the R nomination.

District 12 (W Detroit, Southfield, Livonia, Dearborn, Westland) Safe D
26-71 P16: 25 G18: 22 AG18: 24 P20: 25
The commission decided to reduce MI from two black-majority districts to none, with both new 12 and 13 now about 46% black.  New 12 combines parts of old 13 and 14.  Former state rep. (08-14) Rashida Tlaib (D) was elected to a district based in eastern Detroit in 2018.  After incumbent Brenda Lawrence announced her retirement, Tlaib announced that she would run here.  
Tlaib is a Muslim member of "the squad" who has made national news due to her anti-Semitic remarks and sympathy for Hamas.  While there was talk of a primary challenge by a more mainstream D in a district with a significant black population, no challenger made the ballot and Tlaib will again be the D nominee.
James Hooper and Linda Sawyer are seeking the R nomination.

District 13 (E Detroit, Downriver, Romulus) Safe D
24-71 P16: 23 G18: 21 AG18: 22 P20: 25
This district was vacated by Rashida Tlaib in 2022.  State rep (20-22) Shri Thanedar, a wealthy Indian businessman who moved to north Detroit, won an 11-way primary in 2022.  Thanedar won with 28% to 24% for state senator Adam Hollier.  The local D establishment is unhappy with Thanedar, in part because he isn't black.  Hollier ran for the seat this year and attracted substantial support, but was removed from the ballot due to significant fraud on his nominating petitions.  Former state rep (2000-06) and Detroit City Council member (21-P) Mary Waters is also running and has attracted some of Hollier's former supporters.  Shakira Hawkins is also running.
Martell Blivings will again be the R nominee after losing in 2022.

Sunday, June 23, 2024

2024 Michigan State House Races

Last updated June 23, 2022.

All 110 seats in the Michigan house are up for election in 2024.  Democrats won a 56-54 majority in 2024, thanks to a newly gerrymandered state house map.  Rs controlled the house 2010-22.  

Michigan's 2022 state house map was drawn by Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew lines that split many counties and split Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, and the Lansing area to benefit Ds.  Other districts have strange shapes for no clear reason.  

The commission drew many districts that combined parts of Detroit with neighboring suburbs to dilute black voters.  This resulted in a lawsuit where a federal court threw out the Detroit-area districts and had them redrawn.  The new map has 8 black-majority districts based in Detroit/Southfield (4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 16, 18), up from only 6 in the old map.  There are three districts between 40% and 50% black (10, 12, 17).  Two districts are completely in Detroit.  These changes had minimal partisan impact, with only district 13 becoming competitive.





Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and MICRC.

Michigan State House Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan State House Map-MICRC


In 2022, voters passed changes to Michigan's term limits law.  Limits of 6 years in the state house and 8 in the state senate were replaced with a total of 12 years in both houses of the legislature.  This was sold as limiting legislators' time in office, but the practical effect is that most legislators will stay in office longer.  

This year, no state legislator is term limited except one who was previously a state senator.  After many cycles with 30-50 open seats, this year there are only 8 open seats.  Five legislators are retiring, apparently to prepare for state senate campaigns in 2026 (leaving after two terms allows for two state senate terms).  Two legislators are running for judgeships.

With term limits being extended, several previously term limited legislators are seeking state house seats again.  This is the case in districts 34, 68, 83, 93.

Past cycles (particularly 2014 and 2016) have seen many battles in R primaries between establishment and antiestablishment candidates.  In 2022, there were battles between Trump-endorsed candidates and establishment candidates.  This year, the primaries are relatively dull, with fewer open seats, fewer primary challenges, and not many contested primaries with a clear ideological divide.  The four most outspoken R incumbents (36, 51, 66, 107) have primary challengers, though it isn't clear how serious they are.  Michigan Right to Life has made endorsements that may have an impact in some races. 

Consider the districts in detail.  The election data for each district is the R candidates for 2022 state house results (R-D) (excluding districts 1-14), President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)  Additional information on the races comes from Gongwer and RepublicanMichigander.

The 2022 map (Detroit area):


The 2024 map (Detroit area):

1. [S Detroit] Safe D
P16: 10 G18: 9 AG18: 9 P20: 13
This district has a strong claim to be the most diverse in Michigan, and has successively had black, Hispanic, Jewish, Muslim, Chinese, and black representatives.  Tyrone Carter (D) was elected in 2018.  Jay Lovelady is also seeking the D nomination.  Valerie Whittaker will be the R nominee.

2. [Lincoln Park, Allen Park] Safe D
P16: 45 G18: 38 AG18: 39 P20: 44
The downriver area has moved right under Trump, but is more D downballot.  Tullio Liberati (D), younger brother of rep (14-20) Frank Liberati, was elected in 2020.  Ronald Kokinda will be the R nominee.

3. [Dearborn] Safe D
P16: 23 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 23
This district has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Community organizer Alabas Farhat lost the 2022 special election primary to Jeffrey Pepper, who replaced Abdullah Hammoud.  Pepper didn't seek a full term, and Farhat was elected in 2022.  Ziad Abdulmalik and Gus Tarraf are also seeking the D nomination.  State Board of Education member (10-18) Richard Zeile will be the R nominee.

4. [W Detroit] Safe D
P16: 2 G18: 3 AG18: 3 P20: 4
Community organizer Karen Whitsett (D) was first elected in 2018.  She made headlines in 2020 after calling the house D leader racist and praising President Trump after recovering from coronavirus.  She won renomination in 2020 with 45% against a split field.  She has not attracted much attention since then, and is unopposed for reelection this year.

5. [W Detroit, Oak Park] Safe D
P16: 6 G18: 6 AG18: 6 P20: 9
Oak Park City Council Member Regina Weiss (D) was elected in 2020.  She currently represents district 6, an absurd strip from Detroit to Royal Oak.  Three other Ds are challenging Weiss for the D nomination.  Will Sears will be the R nominee.

6. [Royal Oak] Safe D
P16: 34 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 32
Berkley City Councilmember Natalie Price was elected in 2022 to district 5, a particularly absurd strip from Detroit to Oakland County.  It has a chunk of Detroit, slices through Oak Park to the mostly white suburb of Birmingham (with precincts from Southfield, Royal Oak, and Berkley).  The new district 6 is a much more reasonable district based in Royal Oak.  Price is being challenged for the D nomination for Jospeh Fisher.  Brent Lamkin will be the R nominee.

7. [C Detroit] Safe D
P16: 4 G18: 5 AG18: 5 P20: 7
Hamtramck city commissioner Abraham Aiyash (D), a Muslim Bernie Sanders progressive elected in 2020, is retiring, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  He represents district 9, which roughly corresponds to this new district.  Three Ds and two Rs are seeking the seat.

8. [C Detroit, Ferndale] Safe D
P16: 8 G18: 8 AG18: 9 P20: 9
Helena Scott (D), a legislative staffer, was elected to district 7 in 2020.  In 2022, district 7 was drawn as a strip from Detroit to Royal Oak.  She is running in district 8 this year.  Chris Gilmer-Hill is also seeking the D nomination.  Alex Kuhn will be the R nominee.

9. [downtown Detroit] Safe D
P16: 4 G18: 4 AG18: 5 P20: 5
Joe Tate (D) was elected in 2018 and became the house D leader and speaker after the 2022 election.  His current district 10 includes the Grosse Pointes.  He is running in district 9, which includes downtown Detroit.  R. M. Nelson and Lory Parks are also seeking the D nomination.  Michele Lundgren will be the R nominee.

10. [Grosse Pointes, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 32 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
Harper Woods Council Member Veronica Paiz was elected in 2022 to district 11, which stretches from Detroit to most of St. Clair Shores.  The new district 10 includes most of the Grosse Pointes (a clear community of interest), but combines them with part of Detroit, making it unlikely that they can elect a candidate of their choice.  Justin Counts is also seeking the D nomination.  Griffin Wojtowicz will be the R nominee.

11. [N Detroit, S Warren] Safe D
P16: 13 G18: 12 AG18: 13 P20: 16
Donavan McKinney was elected in 2022 to district 14, which contains parts of Detroit and Warren.  He will be the D nominee for the new district 11.  The R nominee will be Dale Walker.

12. [Eastpointe, Detroit, St. Clair Shores] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 29 P20: 31
The old version of this district combined parts of Detroit and Macomb County.  Kimberly Edwards (D), a Detroit resident, won a surprise upset over a Macomb D incumbent in 2022.  The new district trades Roseville for part of St. Clair Shores.  Patrick Biange and Angela McIntosh are also seeking the D nomination.  Randell Shafer will be the R nominee.

13. [E Warren, Roseville] Lean D
P16: 49 G18: 41 AG18: 43 P20: 48
The current district includes E Warren and a chunk of Detroit.  It was redistricted to include less of Warren and none of Detroit.  It added Roseville and central St. Clair Shores.  The new district was close at the presidential level, but is more D downballot.
Macomb County commissioner Mai Xiong (D) was elected in a 2024 special election after incumbent Lori Stone was elected mayor of Warren in 2023.  Roseville City Clerk Rich Steenland (D) was elected to the state house in 2020 and lost a shock upset to Kimberly Edwards in 2022 after a chunk of Detroit was added to the district.  He is running again this year.  Patricia Johnson Singleton, is also seeking the D nomination.
Engineer Ronald Singer seems to have the most R establishment support.  Jerrie Bowl Bilello, Mark Foster, and John Sheets are also seeking the R nomination.

14. [C Warren, Madison Heights] Safe D
P16: 42 G18: 35 AG18: 37 P20: 41
Hazel Park City Councilmember Mike McFall was elected in 2022 to district 8, which was a strip from Detroit to Madison Heights.  The new district 14 has Madison Heights, Hazel Park, and a large chuck of central Warren.  McFall is running here.
McFall is being challenged for the D nomination by former Warren Mayor (2007-23) James Fouts.  Fouts, age 81, has a long, controversial history in Warren, including "allegedly" making racist remarks on tape (which he denies).  He also identified as an independent for the latter half of his tenure as mayor.  Despite the controversies, he remained fairly popular in Warren, and his tenure was only ended by term limits.
McFall has essentially unanimous support from the D establishment, but Fouts' long history in Warren can't be counted out.  The R nominee will be Barbara Barber.

15. [Dearborn Heights, W Dearborn] Safe D
38-62 P16: 39 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
This district has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Dearborn City Councilmember Erin Byrnes, was elected in 2022.  Gary Gardner will be the R nominee.

16. [SE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
22-78 P16: 23 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 23
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Stephanie Young (D) was elected to a district entirely within Detroit in 2020.  Keith Windham is also seeking the D nomination.  Brian Duggan will be the R nominee.

17. [NE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
31-69 P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 30 P20: 31
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Laurie Pohutsky (D) is a progressive who was first elected to a swing district based in Livonia in 2018.  Rola Makki will be the R nominee.

18. [Southfield, Farmington] Safe D
20-80 P16: 19 G18: 18 AG18: 19 P20: 20
Southfield City Councilman Jason Hoskins was elected in 2022.  Mordechai Klainberg will be the R nominee.

19. [N Farmington Hills, S Bloomfield Twp] Safe D
33-67 P16: 33 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
Farmington Hills City Council member Samantha Steckloff (D) was elected in 2020.  Kevin Hammer will be the R nominee.

20. [W Bloomfield Twp.] Safe D
43-57 P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 41 P20: 43
Political activist Noah Arbit (D) was elected in 2022.  Hermon Barbe and Brendan Cowley are seeking the R nomination.

21. [Novi] Safe D
42-56 P16: 45.3 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.9 P20: 42.4
Novi city councilmember Kelly Breen (D) flipped this historically conservative seat D in 2020.  The new district moved several points left.  Residential appraiser Thomas Konesky will be the R nominee.

22. [W Livonia, Plymouth, Northville] Lean D
46-54 P16: 50 G18: 46.8 AG18: 49.7 P20: 47.2
Matt Koleszar (D) was first elected in 2018, flipping a historically R seat that moved left under Trump.  This district moved several points right compared to Koleszar's old district.  Student Christian Charette and carpet cleaner Adam Stathakis are seeking the R nomination.

23. [E Ann Arbor, South Lyon] Safe D
35-65 P16: 35 G18: 35 AG18: 37 P20: 34
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, Ann Arbor was split into four pieces.  This particularly absurd district has a slice of Ann Arbor, R-leaning Salem Township, South Lyon from Oakland County, and parts of Plymouth and Northville Townships in Wayne County.  Washtenaw County Commissioner Jason Morgan was elected in 2022.  Miriam Corvino and David Stamp are seeking the R nomination.

24. [Canton Twp] Safe D
39-61 P16: 41 G18: 37 AG18: 40 P20: 38
Ranjeev Puri (D) was elected in 2020.  Leonard Scott will be the R nominee.

25. [Westland, Wayne] Safe D
37-63 P16: 40 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 40
Peter Herzberg (D) was elected in a 2024 special election after Kevin Coleman (D) was elected in mayor of Westland.  Four other candidates are seeking the D nomination.  Josh Powell will be the R nominee.

26. [Garden City, Inkster, N Romulus] Safe D
32-68 P16: 32 G18: 27 AG18: 28 P20: 34
Teacher Dylan Wegela (D) won in 2022.  DeArtriss Coleman-Richardson is also seeking the D nomination.  Jeff Gorman will be the R nominee.

27. [Trenton, Grosse Ile] Tossup
49.2-50.8 P16: 51.5 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.7 P20: 51.3
The downriver area has many working class voters who have moved right under Trump.  Teacher Jaime Churches (D) was elected in 2022.  Gibraltar City Council member Cody Dill, student Rylee Linting, and realtor Maria Mendoza-Boc are also seeking the R nomination.

28. [NE Monroe, Brownstown Twp] Tossup
51-49 P16: 51.5 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.6 P20: 51.9
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Nurse Jamie Thompson (R) was elected in 2022.  Beth Socia is also seeking the R nomination.  Teacher Janise Robinson will be the D nominee.

29. [Taylor, Huron] Lean R
51.5-48.5 P16: 51.6 G18: 44.3 AG18: 46.3 P20: 53
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Sales manager James DeSana (R) was elected in 2022.  Taylor School Board member Kyle Wright will be the D nominee.

30. [S Monroe] Safe R
37-63 P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 60
Army veteran William Bruck was elected in 2022.  Rick Kull will be the D nominee.

31. [N Monroe, Belleville] Lean D
47.7-52.3 P16: 47.4 G18: 42.1 AG18: 44.1 P20: 48.8
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It combines heavily D parts of Wayne with rural R areas of Monroe.  Van Buren Township Trustee Reggie Miller (D) was elected in 2022.  She won by 5% over truck driver Dale Biniecki, who will be the R nominee again this year.

32. [Ypsilanti] Safe D
21-79 P16: 22 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 22
Ypsilanti Township Trustee Jimmie Wilson Jr. was elected in 2022.  Three people are seeking the R nomination.

33. [S Ann Arbor, Pittsfield Twp] Safe D
25-75 P16: 25 G18: 24 AG18: 26 P20: 23
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships.  County Commissioner Felicia Brabec (D), who was elected in 2020, is retiring to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  Legislative staffer Morgan Foreman and Ann Arbor School Board trustee Rima Mohammed are seeking the D nomination.  The R nominee will be Jason Rogers.

34. [Lenawee] Safe R
62-38 P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 54 P20: 58
State rep (10-14) and senator (14-22) Dale Zorn won this seat in 2022.  He is term limited (even after the initiative).  Former state rep (10-16) Nancy Jenkins, who is no longer term limited, will be the R nominee.  John Dahlgren will be the D nominee after losing in 2022.

35. [Hillsdale, Branch] Safe R
73-27 P16: 69 G18: 64 AG18: 66 P20: 71
Attorney Andrew Fink (R), who was elected in 2020, is running for Michigan Supreme Court.  Branch County Commissioner Tom Matthew, Hillsdale Mayor Adam Stockford, who previously ran for this seat in 2020, and teacher Jennifer Wortz are seeking the R nomination.  The D nominee will be Don Hicks.

36. [St. Joseph, Cass] Safe R
66-34 P16: 63 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 65
Steve Carra (R) was first elected in 2020.  He is a pro-Trump libertarian who is close to the Karamo faction of the Michigan GOP.  After congressman Fred Upton voted for impeachment, Carra announced a run against him, and was endorsed by President Trump.  Redistricting took Carra out of the new district, and added the base of Congressman Bill Huizenga, who ran for the seat.  President Trump then offered a "complete and total" endorsement of Huizenga.  While not explicitly un-endorsing Carra, this served to push him out of the race, and he chose to run for reelection.  Upton decided not to seek reelection.
Carra won renomination in 2022 with only 40% against three credible candidates who entered the race while he was running for congress.  Michael Malmborg and Sturgis Mayor Frank Perez are also seeking the R nomination this year.  Erin Schultes will be the D nominee.

37. [S Berrien, W Cass] Safe R
65-35 P16: 59 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore and added more of interior Berrien County.  Teacher Brad Paquette (R) was first elected in 2018.  Angela Jones will be the D nominee.

38. [Berrien to Allegan lakeshore] Lean D
48.2-51.8 P16: 46.1 G18: 44.9 AG18: 46.5 P20: 44.6
This absurd district runs about 75 miles along the Lake Michigan shoreline from New Buffalo to Saugatuck.  It is barely a mile wide at one point.  Apparently, people who live close to a lake form a community of interest.  This district promotes "partisan fairness" since it favors Ds.  Joey Andrews (D), an AFL-CIO operative, won this seat in 2022.
One R candidate is accountant Kevin Whiteford, the husband of Allegan County state rep (16-22) Mary Whiteford, who lost by 3.6% in 2022.  He faces a rematch with realtor George Steven Lucas for the R nomination.
39. [Van Buren] Safe R
63-37 P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore of Van Buren and added parts of Berrien and Allegan.  Pauline Wendzel (R), a businesswoman who was elected to a N Berrien district in 2018, won here in 2022.  Richard Overton, who was a Reform Party congressional candidate in 2000 and 2002, is also seeking the R nomination.  Jared Polonowski and Kerry Tapper are seeking the D nomination.

40. [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas] Safe D
41-59 P16: 42 G18: 41 AG18: 44.6 P20: 40
This area was R-held until 2020, when county commissioner Christine Morse (D) won an open seat. She is retiring this year to seek a local judgeship.  Dr. Matt Longjohn, who was the D nominee for congress in 2018, is the likely nominee this year.  Also seeking the D nomination is former Portage city council member Lisa Brayton, whose campaign for mayor ended over a residency issue.  The R candidate is Kalamazoo GOP chair Kelly Sackett, who lost by 17% in 2022.

41. [Kalamazoo city] Safe D
21-77 P16: 23 G18: 22 AG18: 24 P20: 23
County commissioner Julie Rogers (D) was elected in 2020 after losing earlier bids in 2006 and 2008.  The R candidates are Terry Haines and Nicole Sabel.
42. [rural Kalamazoo, Plainwell] Safe R
55-45 P16: 52.9 G18: 49.4 AG18: 53.2 P20: 52.6
Matt Hall was first elected in 2018, defeating a moderate incumbent, and is now the house R leader.  He moved to Kalamazoo County from Calhoun County after being put in the same district as Sarah Lightner (R) of Jackson County.  Trucking company owner Rich Cutshaw is also seeking the R nomination, running to Hall's right.  The D nominee will be Austin Marsman.

43. [Allegan, S Barry] Safe R
71-29 P16: 67 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 69
This absurd district includes the majority of Allegan County, southern Barry County, one township from Eaton County, and part of a township in Ottawa County.  Martin Township Clerk Rachelle Smit was elected in 2022 with a Trump endorsement.   Danene Shumaker will be the D nominee.

44. [Battle Creek, Albion] Tossup
47.8-52.2 P16: 48.1 G18: 44.4 AG18: 47.3 P20: 49.4
This district was drawn in 2012 as a gerrymander to put the most D areas of Calhoun in one district to protect then-speaker Jase Bolger (R) in a neighboring district.  Incredibly, the redistricting commission maintained this gerrymander.  County commissioner Jim Haadsma (D) was elected to this open seat in 2018. County commissioner Steve Frisbie, Alexander Harris, and Jim Shotts are seeking the R nomination.
45. [S Calhoun, W Jackson] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Sarah Lightner (R) was first elected in 2018 in a rural Jackson County district.  Doug Murch will be the D nominee.

46. [Jackson city] Tossup
54.4-45.6 P16: 48 G18: 44.4 AG18: 46.8 P20: 49.1
This district was gerrymandered by adding Chelsea in Washtenaw County and removing rural R townships.  Broadcaster Kathy Schmaltz (R) won in 2022 after the D nominee imploded due to scandal.  Jackson Mayor Daniel Mahoney will be the D nominee.

47. [W Ann Arbor, SW Jackson] Safe D
37-63 P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson County.  Social work lecturer Carrie Rheingans was elected in 2022.  Tammy Keller and Teresa Spiegelberg are seeking the R nomination.
48. [N Ann Arbor, SC Livingston] Lean D
46-53 P16: 48.1 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.5 P20: 46.6
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson and Livingston Counties.  Journalist Jennifer Conlin (D) was elected in 2022.  Northfield Township Trustee Tawn Beliger and small business owner Brian Ignatowski are seeking the R nomination.

49. [SE Livington, Wixom] Safe R
56-44 P16: 54.9 G18: 51.2 AG18: 53.7 P20: 53.2
Ann Bollin was first elected in 2018.  The D nominee will be Andy Wood.

50. [N, W Livingston] Safe R
67-33 P16: 65 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Former Livingston County Sheriff Bob Bezotte (R) was elected in 2020.  Following the news of a messy divorce, he announced his retirement, and several candidates jumped in the race to succeed him.  One is Marine veteran and pastor Jason Woolford, who lost by 7% in district 48 in 2022.  Also running are attorney Kristina Lyke, who ran for congress in 2020, and realtor/legislative staffer Dominic Restuccia.  Bezotte then reentered the race shortly before the filing deadline.  Lyke's husband filed a complaint that Bezotte did not live in the house (that he owns with his wife) listed on his candidate filing, and he was removed from the ballot.  Bezotte appealed the decision, and was returned to the ballot.
Austin Breuer will be the D nominee.

51. [White Lake, Milford] Safe R
58-42 P16: 61 G18: 56 AG18: 58 P20: 59
Matt Maddock, an antiestablishment leader who is close to Trump, was first elected in 2018.  Milford Village Council member Kevin Ziegler is also seeking the R nomination.  Debbie Llewellyn and Sarah May-Seward are seeking the D nomination.

52. [Waterford, Independence] Safe R
59-41 P16: 59 G18: 53 AG18: 56 P20: 57
Police officer Mike Harris (R) was elected in a 2022 special election, following the death of Andrea Schroeder.  Caroline Dargay will be the D nominee.

53. [Pontiac, S Waterford] Safe D
33-67 P16: 30 G18: 28 AG18: 29 P20: 32
Brenda Carter (D) was first elected in 2018.  Melissa Schultz will be the R nominee.

54. [N Bloomfield, Auburn Hills, Orion] Lean R
51.2-48.8 P16: 51.2 G18: 48.4 AG18: 50.8 P20: 48.3
This is a rare example of a good draw for Rs (though not very compact), which puts shaky territory in Bloomfield Township with more R Orion Township to the north.  Orion Township Treasurer and realtor Donni Steele (R) won in 2022.  Businesswoman Shadia Martini will be the D nominee after losing by 2% in 2022.

55. [Rochester Hills] Lean R
51.8-48.2 P16: 50.9 G18: 48.2 AG18: 51.1 P20: 48.1
This historically conservative wealthy suburban seat has trended left under Trump.  Rochester Hills City Council member Mark Tisdell (R) won a highly competitive general election in 2020.  Diplomat Trevis Harrold and Army veteran Alexander Hawkins are seeking the D nomination.


56. [Troy] Safe D
42-58 P16: 45.1 G18: 42 AG18: 44.6 P20: 41.3
Marketing manager Sharon MacDonell (D) was elected in 2022.  Dave Kniffen will be the R nominee.

57. [W Sterling Heights] Lean R
52.6-47.4 P16: 52 G18: 46.4 AG18: 48.4 P20: 53.1
Oakland County Commissioner and attorney Thomas Kuhn (R) was elected in 2022.  Attorney Aisha Farooqi (D) is running again after losing by 5% in 2022.  Tyler Fox and Douglas Waggener are also seeking the D nomination.  

58. [E Sterling Heights] Tossup
48.7-51.3 P16: 52.5 G18: 45.4 AG18: 48 P20: 52.1
This district is very oddly shaped for no clear reason.  Nate Shannon (D) was first elected in 2018.  Roger Goodrich and Utica City Councilman Ron Robinson are seeking the R nomination.

59. [Shelby Twp] Safe R
65-35 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 61 P20: 63
State rep (18-21) Doug Wozniak won a 2021 special election for a Macomb-based state senate seat.  Redistricting put Wozniak in the same district as an incumbent senator, and he chose to run for state house again in 2022, defeating his successor in the primary.  CPA Jean Zott is also seeking the R nomination.
Jason Pulaski will be the D nominee.

60. [Macomb Twp] Safe R
58-42 P16: 59 G18: 51.4 AG18: 55 P20: 58
Former Clinton Townshp Trustee Joseph Aragona was elected in 2022.  Shelly Fraley will be the D nominee.

61. [Clinton Twp] Lean D
48-52 P16: 50.3 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.8 P20: 49.5
Mount Clemens City Commissioner Denise Mentzer (D) won this seat in 2022.  Legislative staffer Russ Cleary, IT consultant John Grossenbacher, and school board member Robert Wojtowicz are seeking the R nomination.

62. [Harrison Twp] Lean R
53.4-46.6 P16: 52.8 G18: 46.1 AG18: 48.2 P20: 52.7
Alicia St. Germaine (R) was elected in 2022.  Michelle Levine-Woodman will be the D nominee.

63. [Chesterfield Twp, S St. Clair] Safe R
64-36 P16: 64 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 65
St. Clair County Clerk Jay DeBoyer won this seat in 2022.  Michael Zoran is also seeking the R nomination.  Robert Kelly-McFarland will be the D nominee.

64. [E St. Clair] Safe R
61-39 P16: 58 G18: 49.5 AG18: 52.6 P20: 59
R incumbents Andrew Beeler (20-24) and Gary Eisen (18-22) faced off in 2022, with Beeler winning 67-26.  Beeler is retiring this year, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  Eisen, a firearms instructor, is one of five R candidates.  The others are "St. Clair County Commissioner Jorja Baldwin, Joseph Pavlov of Kimball, a former teacher at Marysville Public Schools, Dan Geiersbach of Port Huron, who ran for Senate in 2022, Ryan Maxon of Smiths Creek".
There are three candidates for the D nomination.

65. [W St. Clair, E Lapeer] Safe R
72-28 P16: 70 G18: 62 AG18: 65 P20: 71
Navy veteran and Richmond City Councilmember Jaime Greene won in 2022.  Shirley Tomczak will be the D nominee.

66. [NE Oakland] Safe R
65-35 P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Teacher Josh Schriver won this seat in 2022 on a libertarian-leaning platform.  He has attracted controversy for retweeting a meme about the 'great replacement'.  Real estate lawyer Randy LeVasseur is also seeking the R nomination.  Shawn Almeranti-Crosby will be the D nominee.

67. [W Lapeer, NE Genesee] Safe R
61-39 P16: 58 G18: 50.2 AG18: 54 P20: 60
Phil Green (R) was elected in 2018 in a Tuscola/Huron County district.  Redistricting placed one township from Tuscola County in this district.  Green won an 8-way primary with only 25% in 2022.
He is being challenged by former radio host Sherri Cross, who previously lost R primaries for state house in 2018, 2020, and 2022 (to Green, finishing seventh).  Also seeking the R nomination is Sherry Marden.  Anissa Buffin will be the D nominee.

68. [Burton, Davison] Lean R
55-45 P16: 52.5 G18: 45.5 AG18: 49.9 P20: 52.3
This area has moved significantly right under Trump.  David Martin (R), a county commissioner from Davison who upset an incumbent D in 2020 in a NW Genesee district, won this district in 2022.  Former rep (16-22) Tim Sneller (D) of Burton, who is no longer term limited, is the D candidate.

69. [W Genesee] Safe D
41-56 P16: 41 G18: 36 AG18: 40 P20: 42
Legislative staffer Jasper Martus was elected in 2022.  Patrick Duvendeck will be the R nominee.
70. [Flint] Safe D
18-82 P16: 17 G18: 14 AG18: 16 P20: 19
Due to population loss in Flint, this district expanded from being contained within Flint to containing Flint and some suburban areas.  It has a black majority.  Cynthia Neeley (D) won a 2020 special election to replace her husband Sheldon Neeley after he was elected mayor of Flint.  Michael Clack is also seeking the D nomination.  Rob Waskoviak will be the R nominee.

71. [Shiawassee] Safe R
58-42 P16: 57 G18: 50.4 AG18: 56 P20: 60
Shiawassee County Sheriff Brian BeGole was elected in 2022.  He won 46-36 over Trump-endorsed Army veteran Kevin Rathbun, who is back for a rematch this year.  Mark Zacharda will be the D nominee again after losing in 2022.

72. [Fenton, Grand Blanc] Safe R
58-42 P16: 55 G18: 49.6 AG18: 53 P20: 55
This district added some competitive areas near Flint.  It shifted slightly left, but is still safe.  Former police officer Mike Mueller (R) was first elected in 2018.  John Dolza will be the D nominee.

73. [rural Ingham] Safe D
43-57 P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 43 P20: 44
This rural Ingham district loses Delhi Township and adds part of East Lansing.  It is usually close, but never close enough for Rs to win.  Julie Brixie (D) was elected in 2018 to a district based in East Lansing and Meridian Township.  Joshua Rockey will be the R nominee.

74. [S Lansing, Delhi Twp] Safe D
31-69 P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 31 P20: 31
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing.  Kara Hope (D) was elected in 2018.  Tom Izzo (not the MSU basketball coach) will be the R nominee.
75. [Meridian Twp, SE Clinton] Safe D
40-60 P16: 39 G18: 35 AG18: 40 P20: 38
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits East Lansing and absorbs rural R areas.  Former Ingham County Commissioner Penelope Tsernoglou won in 2022 after losing to state rep Julie Brixie in the 2018 D primary.  Frank Lambert will be the R nominee.

76. [Eaton] Lean D
44-56 P16: 47.9 G18: 42.9 AG18: 46.9 P20: 47.9
This district flipped several times over the past decade, and usually has close races.  Angela Witwer (D) was first elected with 50.8% in 2018 and was reelected with 51.2% in 2020.  Restaurant owner Peter Jones and pastor Andy Shaver are seeking the R nomination.

77. [N Lansing, SW Clinton] Safe D
38-62 P16: 37 G18: 33 AG18: 38 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing and absorbs rural R areas of Clinton County.  Leftist activist Emily Dievendorf won this seat in 2022.  Angela Matthews is also seeking the D nomination.  Two candidates are seeking the R nomination.

78. [Ionia, NE Barry] Safe R
66-34 P16: 62 G18: 56 AG18: 61 P20: 63
Businesswoman Gina Johnsen won in 2022 after losing an Eaton County seat in 2020.  She is being challenged by sheriff's deputy Jon Rocha, who got Trump's endorsement in 2020 but was disqualified from the ballot due to campaign finance problems.  Christine Terpening will be the D nominee.

79. [S Kent] Safe R
66-34 P16: 65 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 63
This district has most of the southern tier of Kent, plus three townships from Barry and one from Allegan.  Angela Rigas was elected in 2022 after securing the Trump endorsement.  The D nominee will be Jason Rubin.

80. [Kentwood, East Grand Rapids] Safe D
44-56 P16: 42.7 G18: 43 AG18: 46.1 P20: 39.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Kent County Commissioner Phil Skaggs (D) won here in 2022.  Former Allegan County Commissioner Bill Sage will be the R nominee.

81. [NE Grand Rapids, Ada Twp] Safe D
44-56 P16: 45.5 G18: 43.3 AG18: 46.6 P20: 41.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Rep. (18-24) Rachel Hood (D) is retiring, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  Kent County Commissioner Stephen Wooden will be the D nominee.  Jordan Youngquist will be the R nominee.

82. [SE Grand Rapids] Safe D
25-74 P16: 24 G18: 25 AG18: 27 P20: 23
Grand Rapids school board member Kristian Grant was elected in 2022.  Ryan Malinoski will be the R nominee again after losing in 2022.
83. [Wyoming, SW Grand Rapids] Lean D
45-53 P16: 46.2 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.9 P20: 44
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost heavily R Byron Township and added part of Grand Rapids.  Wyoming City Councilmember John Fitzgerald (D) was elected in 2022.  
Former rep (16-22) Tommy Brann (R) is no longer term limited and will be the R nominee after losing a race for state senate in 2022.  

84. [W Grand Rapids, Walker, Grandville] Lean D
44-56 P16: 47.5 G18: 43.8 AG18: 47.1 P20: 43.7
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Walker City Commissioner Carol Glanville (D) was elected 52-40 in a normally safe R district in a May 2022 special election after the election of Mark Huizenga to the state senate.  Justin Rackham is also seeking the D nomination.
Businessman John Wetzel and Ben June are seeking the R nomination.

85. [Jenison, Zeeland] Safe R
70-28 P16: 71 G18: 69 AG18: 72 P20: 67
Bradley Slagh was first elected in 2018.  Marcia Mansaray will be the D nominee.

86. [Holland] Safe R
56-44 P16: 51.7 G18: 51.4 AG18: 54.4 P20: 49.3
This Holland-area district has trended left, but is more R downballot.  Former Holland Mayor Nancy De Boer was elected in 2022.   Legislative staffer Abby Klomparens will be the D nominee.

87. [Muskegon city] Safe D
38-62 P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 37 P20: 39
Will Snyder, district director for Rep. (16-22) Terry Sabo won here in 2022.  The R nominee will be Chip Chipman.

88. [Grand Haven, Norton Shores] Safe R
56-42 P16: 54.5 G18: 51.7 AG18: 55.3 P20: 53.7
Greg VanWoerkom, son of state senator (02-10) Jerry VanWoerkom, was elected to the rural Muskegon district in 2018.  That district was chopped into three pieces, and he won this district in 2022.  Tim Meyer will be the D nominee.

89. [E Ottawa, SE Muskegon] Safe R
69-31 P16: 65 G18: 61 AG18: 64 P20: 66
Luke Meerman (R) was first elected in 2018.  The D nominee will be Lois Maassen.

90. [NC Kent] Safe R
62-38 P16: 60 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 59
Bryan Posthumus (R) was first elected in 2020.  He is the son of LG (1998-2002) Dick Posthumus and brother of Kent County Clerk Lisa Lyons.  William Higgins will be the D nominee.

91. [Montcalm] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 67
Pat Outman, the son of senator (18-P) Rick Outman, was first elected in 2020.  Jason Dillingham will be the D nominee.

92. [Isabella, N Gratiot] Lean R
56-42 P16: 50.8 G18: 46.4 AG18: 50.2 P20: 53
This district is drawn in the way most beneficial to Ds.  While it keeps Isabella County whole, it includes northern Gratiot County, which is the most pro-D area in any of the five neighboring counties.  Farmer Jerry Neyer (R) won this seat in 2022.  CMU manager Timothy Odykirk will be the D nominee.
93. [W Saginaw, S Gratiot, N Clinton] Safe R
64-36 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Graham Filler (R) was first elected in 2018 and moved into this new district after his house was put into a D-heavy district as part of the gerrymander of the Lansing area.  He is retiring this year, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  The R nominee will be former state rep (12-18) Tim Kelly, who is no longer term limited.  He was nominated, but not confirmed for a position in the Trump administration and lost a campaigns for congress in 2020 and state senate in 2022.
Kevin Seamon will be the D nominee.

94. [Saginaw city] Safe D
32-68 P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 32 P20: 32
Saginaw County commissioner Amos O'Neal (D) was elected in 2020.  Geoffrey Weil and Robert Zelle are seeking the R nomination.

95. [Midland] Safe R
61-39 P16: 57 G18: 55 AG18: 57 P20: 57
Former DIA officer Bill G. Schuette, son of former AG (10-18) Bill Schuette, was elected in 2022.  Sabrina Lopez will be the D nominee.

96. [Bay County] Lean R
55-45 P16: 52.3 G18: 45.9 AG18: 48.8 P20: 53.7
Bay County was long a D stronghold, but it has been moving right.  Bangor Township School Board member Timothy Beson (R) defeated a D incumbent in an upset in 2020.  Veteran Chaz Fowler is challenging Beson in the R primary.  Teacher Rudy Howard, Jr. will be the D nominee.

97. [E Saginaw, W Tuscola] Safe R
67-33 P16: 63 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 64
This strange district neighbors four urban areas, and has an arm to take in rural areas between the tri-cities (Saginaw, Midland, and Bay City).  Former Tuscola County Commissioner Matthew Bierlein defeated an R incumbent in 2022 to win this seat.  Mark Putnam will be the D nominee.

98. [the Thumb] Safe R
72-28 P16: 69 G18: 63 AG18: 66 P20: 71
Former Sanilac County drain commissioner and farmer Gregory Alexander was elected in 2022.  April Osentoski will be the D nominee.

99. [Iosco, Arenac, Ogemaw, Gladwin] Safe R
68-32 P16: 65 G18: 58 AG18: 59 P20: 67
Au Gres Mayor and hunting store owner Mike Hoadley was elected in 2022 after securing a Trump endorsement.  John LeRoux will be the D nominee.

100. [Mecosta, Osceola, Clare] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 67
Grant Township Board member Tom Kunse won in 2022.  Two candidates are seeking the D nomination.

101. [Newaygo, Lake] Safe R
68-32 P16: 65 G18: 60 AG18: 63 P20: 67
Former director of the Newaygo County Commission on Aging Joseph Fox was elected in 2022.  Brandon Scott McDonald is also seeking the GOP nomination.  Christopher Crain will be the D nominee.

102. [Muskegon to Manistee lakeshore] Safe R
61-39 P16: 56 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 58
This district was assembled from pieces of three existing districts.  Senator (18-22) Curt VanderWall (R) was previously a state rep (16-18) representing one of them.  Redistricting put him in a district largely represented by senator Jon Bumstead.  VanderWall decided to run for state house in 2022 rather than challenge Bumstead or move to a different district.  Kathy Pelleran-Mahoney will be the D nominee.

103. [Leelanau, Traverse City] Tossup
48.5-49.8 P16: 49.9 G18: 46.6 AG18: 49.5 P20: 46.9
This district is gerrymandered to combine Leelanau County with the Traverse City area in a way that is the best for Ds.  Grand Traverse County is split, even though it has the right population for a single district.  Grand Traverse County Commissioner Betsy Coffia (D), who previously lost races for state house in 2012, 2014, and 2016, has most D establishment support, narrowly beat an R incumbent in 2022.
Tripp Garcia, Kate Kniss, and Lisa Trombley are seeking the R nomination.  Kniss and Trombley are both former county GOP chairs, and Kniss took 48% against an incumbent state rep in district 104 in 2022.
104. [S Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Antrim] Safe R
63-37 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 62
The oddly shaped district contains parts of six counties but all of none.  John Roth (R) was first elected in 2020 and moved to this district to avoid a primary with another incumbent.  Owen Suhy is also seeking the R nomination.  Larry Knight will be the D nominee.

105. [Roscommon, Crawford, Otsego, Missaukee] Safe R
69-31 P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 65 P20: 68
Otsego County Commissioner Ken Borton was first elected in 2020.  Christian Marcus is also seeking the R nomination.  James Wojey will be the D nominee.

106. [NE Lower Peninsula] Safe R
65-35 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 66
Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner Cam Cavitt was elected in 2022.  Veteran Todd Smalenberg is also seeking the R nomination.  Two candidates are seeking the D nomination. 

107. [Mackinac Bridge area] Safe R
57-43 P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 57
Property manager Neil Friske won this seat in 2022.  He is an antiestablishment conservative friendly with the Karamo wing of the Michigan GOP.  University student Parker Fairbairn, who also ran in 2022, is seeking the R nomination.  Jodi Decker will again be the D nominee after losing in 2022.

108. [Menominee to Chippewa] Safe R
66-34 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 64
Menominee County Commissioner and paramedic David Prestin won this seat in 2022.  Christiana Reynolds will be the D nominee.

109. [Marquette] Lean D
47-53 P16: 48.6 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.1 P20: 48
Trump won this district, but it is more D downballot.  Marquette City Commissioner Jenn Hill won this seat in 2022.  Hill faces two primary challengers.  Former farmer and police officer Melody Wagner is seeking the R nomination, after losing races for this district in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022.  Businessman Burt Mason and weatherman Karl Bohnak are also seeking the R nomination.

110. [W Upper Peninsula] Safe R
63-37 P16: 59 G18: 54 AG18: 55 P20: 59
Gregory Markkanen (R) won this historically D district in an upset in in 2018.  Kim Corcoran will be the D nominee.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe D: 42 (1-12, 14-21, 23-26, 32, 33, 40, 41, 47, 53, 56, 69, 70, 73-75, 77, 81-82, 87, 94)
Lean D: 10 (13, 22, 31, 38, 48, 61, 76, 83, 84, 109)
Tossup: 6 (27, 28, 44, 46, 58, 103)
Lean R: 8 (29, 54, 55, 57, 62, 68, 92, 96)
Safe R: 44 (30, 34-37, 39, 42, 43, 45, 49-52, 59, 60, 63-67, 71, 72, 78, 79, 85, 86, 88-91, 93, 95, 97-102, 104-108, 110)

Saturday, June 22, 2024

Michigan Right to Life endorsements

Michigan Right to Life has just issued its endorsements for the 2024 primary.  RTL has influenced a significant number of Michigan primary voters, so its endorsements will decide some races.  Following the passage of a pro-abortion referendum, some candidates are moderating their positions on abortion, and a larger number of incumbents have not sought (or not obtained) the RTL endorsement.  It remains to be seen whether RTL will have as much sway as in past cycles.

RTL will recommend all candidates if they are all pro-life, but if there is a serious non-pro-life candidate, they will pick one pro-life candidate to endorse.  Their noteworthy endorsements are listed below.

https://rtl.org/get-involved/elections/endorsed-candidates/

No endorsements are listed for US Senate.

Congress: All Republican incumbents are endorsed.
3. Michael J. Markey
7. Tom Barrett

State house: All Republican incumbents are endorsed except Brad Paquette, Mike Harris, Donni Steele, Thomas Kuhn, Alicia St. Germaine, and Bryan Posthumus.  Steve Carra was endorsed after not being endorsed in previous cycles.  For seats that are open or have no pro-life incumbent, we have the following. 

27. Rylee Linting solely endorsed.
31. Dale Biniecki
34. Nancy Jenkins-Arno
35. all three endorsed
38. Kevin Whiteford solely endorsed.
44. Steve Frisbie solely endorsed.
48. both endorsed
58. Ron Robinson solely endorsed.
61. Robert Wojtowicz
64. Joseph G. Pavlov solely endorsed.
76. both endorsed
84. John Wetzel solely endorsed.
93. Tim Kelly
103. Katie Kniss solely endorsed.
109. Melody Wagner solely endorsed.

Friday, May 31, 2024

June 2024 Judiciary News

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Nominees:  Carrie Severino explains why Biden nominees Adeel Mangi, Nancy Maldonado, Sparkle Sooknanan, Amir Ali, and Mustafa Kasubhai should not be confirmed.

Blue Slip:  Senator Durbin has proposed to reinstate the blue slip for circuit courts, which suggests D senators think Rs are likely to win the senate in November.

3rd Circuit: The White House is still supporting the nomination of Adeel Mangi, despite him lacking the votes for confirmation.  Three D senators, Joe Manchin, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Jacky Rosen oppose Mangi due to his ties to anti-Semites and hostility to law enforcement.  Biden may fear losing Muslim votes if he withdraws the nomination.

SD-NY:  Senator Ted Cruz (R) asked Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn whether it is acceptable to put men in women's prisons, which she found it difficult to answer.

D-MT:  President Biden nominated Danna Jackson to an open seat on D-MT without consulting senator Steve Daines (R).  Daines will oppose Jackson's nomination.

Nominations:
TBA

The Federal Judiciary:

Judgeships:  The US Senate passed a bill to make all 10 temporary federal district court judgeships permanent.  The judgeships are located in WD-NC, ED-TX, ED-MO, D-AZ, D-HI, CD-CA, D-KS, D-NM, SD-FL, and ND-AL.

Judgeships:  There is supposedly momentum in congress to create more than 60 new federal judgeships.  However, it is far from certain that this will happen.

Alito:  The left is in a lather over a story that Justice Alito's house briefly flew an American flag upside down.  They are claiming this has something to do with the Stop the Steal movement, despite no evidence of this.  Alito rejected demands that he recuse from pending cases, and Justice Roberts rejected a demand to meet with D senators about the controversy.

Kavanaugh:  At a recent conference, Justice Kavanaugh offered a surprisingly positive assessment of the Warren court.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 69 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past two months are listed below.
ND-NY: David Hurd (Clinton) TBD (senior)
D-SC: Robert Bryan Harwell (W) 6/4/24 (senior)
3rd Circuit: Kent Jordan (W) 1/15/25 (retired)
ND-GA: Steve Jones (Obama) 1/1/25 (senior)
ED-PA: Gene E. K. Pratter (W) 5/18/24 (death)

State Supreme Courts:

Elections:  Bolts magazine surveys 2024 state supreme court elections.

Connecticut:  Chief Justice Richard Robinson will retire on September 6.  He was appointed in 2013 by Dannel Malloy (D) and promoted to chief in 2018.  Ned Lamont (D) will get his third appointment to the court.

Georgia:  Four justices were elected on May 21.  John Ellington, Nels Peterson, and Michael Boggs were unopposed for reelection.
Andrew Pinson won the seat to which he was appointed in 2022 by Brian Kemp (R) 55-45 over former congressman (2004-14) John Barrow (D).  Barrow centered his campaign on abortion, and fought the state Judicial Qualifications Commission over making promises about future cases.

Maryland:  Justice Michele Hotten was age-limited on April 20.  She was appointed in 2015 by Larry Hogan.  Her replacement will be appointed by Governor Wes Moore (D).  The applicants are judges Krystal Alves, Tiffany Anderson, Peter Killough, and William Snoddy.

Minnesota:  Governor Tim Walz (D) nominated 7th District Chief Judge Sarah Hennesy and Minnesota Court of Appeals Judge Theodora Ga├»tas to the Minnesota Supreme Court.  They replace Justices Barry Anderson and Margaret Chutich who are retiring in May and July.  The court will have all D appointees.

Montana:  Montana Supreme Court Chief Justice Mike McGrath and Justice Dirk Sandefur will not seek reelection in 2024.  The primary election is June 4.
Chief:  Former federal magistrate judge (2006-19) Jerry Lynch, age 72, has support on the left.  Broadwater County attorney Cory Swanson (R) has support on the right.  Doug Marshall is also running.
Sandefur seat:  Flathead County District Court Judge Dan Wilson (R supported) and 7th Judicial District Judge Katherine Bidegaray (D supported) are running, along with former state rep (10-14) Jerry O'Neil (R).
Clerk:  The MSC clerk is an elected office that administers court business.  Incumbent Bowen Greenwood (R) faces a primary challenge from state senator Jason Ellsworth.  The winner will face Erin Farris-Olsen (D).

Oklahoma:  The state house voted 60-36 against a proposal to end the judicial nominating commission after the state senate passed it 32-14.  The commission is significantly influenced by the liberal Oklahoma Bar Association.

South Carolina:  Justice Donald Beatty will be age-limited on July 31.  Beatty is a former state rep and liberal D who is the only black member of the court.  Six candidates applied for the position.  Court of Appeals Judges Blake Hewitt and Letitia Verdin and Circuit Court Judge Jocelyn Newman were advanced by the Judicial Merit Selection Commission.  Verdin is the presumptive choice after Newman and Hewitt later dropped out of contention.  The position will officially be filled by the state legislature on June 5.

West Virginia:  Two seats were up for election on May 14.  Haley Bunn (R) was unopposed for the seat to which she was appointed in 2022.  John Hutchison (I) retired from the seat to which he was appointed in 2019.  State senator (2014-P) Charles S. Trump IV (R) was unopposed for the seat.

Wisconsin:  Justice Ann Walsh Bradley will not seek reelection in 2025.  She is the most senior justice on the court, and part of a 4-3 liberal block that controls the court since 2023.  Bradley is age 73 and was first elected in 1995.  Former AG Brad Schimel (R) is seeking the seat.  Court of Appeals Judge Chris Taylor (D) and Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D) have both expressed interest in running.

History:

On Ed Whelan's Substack, "Confirmation Tales", recent posts deal with George W. Bush's nominations of Harriet Miers and Sam Alito.

Resources: