Of the ten house Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump, two are from Michigan--Fred Upton of the sixth district, and Peter Meijer of the third district. Upton is likely to retire in 2022, and would be highly vulnerable if he didn't. The third district is more complicated.
DEMOGRAPHICS OF MI-3
Understanding MI-3 requires understanding Dutch Reformed conservatives. Around 100 years ago, many Dutch immigrants settled in West Michigan. They were predominantly Reformed Christians (Calvinists), who emphasized hard work, frugality, and social conservatism. They were natural Republicans. The biggest denominations are the Mainline Reformed Church of America (RCA) and Christian Reformed Church (CRC). The RCA has both liberal and conservative wings, with liberals more common on the east coast.
(President Trump once identified as an RCA member, attending a church led by Norman Vincent Peale, the author of The Power of Positive Thinking, which borders on the prosperity gospel. Trump later called himself a Presbyterian, the more common theological cousins of the Reformed church founded by Scottish Calvinists.)
The CRC is more conservative than the RCA. It is headquartered in Grand Rapids, and Calvin College, its flagship educational institution, is located there. The CRC has some liberal influences itself, often emanating from Calvin. Senator Scott Brown, rep. Bill Huizinga, and former rep. Vern Ehlers are prominent members. Several smaller Reformed denominations have split from the CRC, viewing it as too liberal. The CRC (and the splinter denominations) have long supported Christian schools over public schools, and in recent decades, many Reformed Christians have embraced homeschooling.
The Reformed churches have tended to be skeptical about military engagements, and MI-3 has one of the more anti-war bases of R congressional districts. The other counties in the district have more conventional Republicans, and Calhoun County (added in 2012) has a more working class demographic.
Today, I would divide the R base in MI-3 into four groups, along with typical representatives.
- Country-club moderates (Brian Ellis) centered in East Grand Rapids and upscale areas around Grand Rapids.
- Establishment conservatives (the DeVos family)
- Conservative/libertarian Trump sceptics (Justin Amash, Steven Johnson)
- Trump conservatives (Tom Norton). The latter two groups were both active in the Tea Party movement, but separated over Trump.
POLITICAL HISTORY OF MI-3
The Kent County area was represented by Gerald Ford from 1948 until he became vice-president in 1973. Ford was succeeded by democrat Richard Vander Veen (1974-1976), whose election was a major upset in the wake of the Watergate scandal. He was succeeded by R prosecutor Harold Sawyer (1976-1984) and former Calvin College political science professor and state legislator Paul Henry (1984-1993).
Vern Ehlers represented the 3rd from 1993 to 2010. Ehlers was previously a physics professor at Calvin College, and a state legislator. Ehlers was fairly moderate, though strongly pro-life. He won easily with the support of the moderates and establishment conservatives.
The DeVos family has had a major impact in the Michigan Republican Party, and particularly in MI-3. In 1959, Rich DeVos co-founded Amway, a company that sells home products using multi-level marketing. He became a billionaire and Republican mega-donor. In the early 1980s, his son Dick DeVos worked with young state senators John Engler and Dick Posthumus to displace the allies of liberal governor Bill Milliken from control of the state GOP, resulting in a relatively conservative party. The DeVos family continued to be prolific donors. Betsy DeVos (wife of Dick) was MIGOP chair 1996-2000 and 2003-2005, and US Secretary of Education 2017-2021.
Justin Amash was elected to the Michigan state house in 2008. With the rise of the Tea Party movement, local activists were unhappy with Ehlers, and the libertarian Amash challenged him in the 2010 primary. Ehlers decided to retire. Amash defeated several other candidates in the primary with the support of the DeVos family and Club for Growth. While he was one of the most anti-establishment members of congress, he maintained the support of the DeVos family.
In 2014, Amash was challenged by Brian Ellis, a moderate. Ellis had the support of the Chamber of Commerce and former rep Pete Hoekstra. Amash won 57-43, with the help of the DeVos family and Club for Growth.
Amash became increasingly critical of President Trump, and in May 2019, the DeVos family announced that it would no longer support him. He left the GOP in July, and later became a Libertarian.
Peter Meijer was elected in 2020. He is a 33-year-old Army veteran and heir of the Meijer retail chain. He ran a rather bland campaign, with the exception that he opposed military interventionism. He had the backing of the DeVos family. He won the primary with 50%, with state rep Lynn Afendoulis (establishment) getting 26%, and Tom Norton (super-Trumpy) getting 16%. Meijer won a relatively narrow 53-47 victory over Hillary Scholten in the general.
FOUR QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE
Will Meijer face more than one challenger? Tom Norton, a Trump die hard who was a Tea Party activist has already announced a primary challenge to Meijer. Norton has a poor electoral track record, finishing fifth in primaries for state house in 2010 and 2014. He also has a history of controversial statements. Shortly after announcing his primary challenge of Amash, Norton "passed out press releases calling on the House to expel Amash for allegedly failing to represent constituents in a district that backed Trump."
Amash has said it’s his duty to uphold the U.S. Constitution. But the congressman's “first duty” is to represent constituents, and “he’s failing at that miserably,” Norton said.
Norton would struggle to gain much support beyond Trump conservatives, and Meijer would most likely beat him. Defeating Meijer would require a more mainstream challenger who could attract at least part of the establishment along with Trump supporters. But will such a challenger emerge?
Does Trump endorse a primary opponent? It seems likely that he would, though a lot can happen in two years. If there is more than one challenger, will the other(s) drop out? Meijer would be more likely to win the primary if opposition to him is split.
Does the DeVos family continue to back Meijer? Betsy DeVos recently resigned as Secretary of Education, harshly criticizing President Trump's role in inspiring the Capitol riot. It seems likely that they will continue to back Meijer, but if not, his position would weaken.
How will redistricting change MI-3? Michigan's congressional districts will be redrawn by an independent commission. There will presumably be a district containing the bulk of Kent County where Meijer will run. What else is attached will matter, though. The current district contains several Trump-friendly rural counties. If they are removed in favor of more of Kent County or part of Ottawa County, Meijer's chances will improve.
Peter Meijer is in for a tough fight. The answers to the questions above will determine whether he survives.
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