Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission has passed a state senate district map.
Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and MICRC.
Michigan State Senate Map-MICRC
1. 29R, 71D SC Detroit, Taylor
2. 26R, 74D Dearborn, Dearborn Heights
3. 26R, 74D central Detroit, Warren, Madison Heights
4. 48R, 52D S Wayne
5. 41R, 59D Canton, Westland
6. 31R, 69D Livonia, Redford, Farmington Hills
7. 26R, 74D Southfield, Pontiac, Bloomfield Hills
8. 22R, 78D N Detroit, Royal Oak
9. 51R, 49D Troy, Rochester Hills, Sterling Heights
10. 34R, 66D E Detroit, Warren, Sterling Heights
11. 50R, 50D Macomb Twp, Clinton Twp, Roseville
12. 53R, 47D Lake St. Clair shoreline
13. 44R, 56D West Bloomfield, Novi, Northville, Plymouth
14. 45R, 55D N Washtenaw, Jackson
15. 27R, 73D S Washtenaw
16. 63R, 37D Monroe, Lenawee, Hillsdale
17. 65R, 35D S Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph, Branch, E Calhoun
18. 62R, 38D W Calhoun, Barry, SE Kent, E Allegan
19. 42R, 58D Kalamazoo, Antwerp Twp
20. 59R, 41D N Berrien, Van Buren, W Allegan, SW Kent
21. 43R, 57D W Ingham, Eaton
22. 63R, 37D Livingston, S. Genessee
23. 59R, 41D W Oakland
24. 66R, 34D N Oakland, NW Macomb
25. 68R, 32D St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron
26. 62R, 38D Lapeer, NE Genessee, S Saginaw, W Tuscola
27. 38R, 62D central Genessee
28. 45R, 55D East Lansing, Clinton, Schiawassee
29. 38R, 62D S Grand Rapids, Wyoming, Kentwood
30. 51R, 49D N Grand Rapids, central Kent, NE Ottawa
31. 62R, 38D Ottawa, Holland area
32. 53R, 47D Muskegon, Lake Michigan coast
33. 68R, 32D N Kent, Ionia, Montcalm, Newaygo, Lake
34. 64R, 36D central Lower Peninsula
35. 49R, 51D Saginaw, Bay, Midland
36. 68R, 32D NE Lower Peninsula
37. 58R, 42D NW Lower Peninsula
38. 59R, 41D Upper Peninsula
The existing map has five black-majority districts, while this map has zero. There are five districts over 40% black (3, 6, 7, 8, 10), with district 7 topping out at 47% black. Detroit is sliced into eight districts, up from five in the current map. All 12 metro-Detroit area D state senators can run for reelection, so there will be quite a scramble for seats, and a couple will probably be left out. There are also plenty of state reps. who will want to move up, creating more contentious primaries.
1. (Safe D) Stephanie Chang will likely run here. Erika Geiss also lives here, but could move to new 4.
2. (Safe D) This seat now has a significant Middle Eastern population. Sylvia Santana represents most of this seat and will probably run here.
3. (Safe D) At least one of Adam Hollier and Marshall Bullock will probably run here, though one could run in either 8 or 10.
4. (Lean D) This area has moved toward Trump, but votes more D downballot. Erika Geiss represents much of this seat, but lives in Taylor (in district 1). Geiss is black and quite liberal, and may not fit well in this working class seat. Former rep. Pat Somerville (R) would be a good candidate, if he were interested.
5. (Safe D) I'm not sure where in Livonia Dayna Polehanki lives, but this seat is likely hers if she wants it. Otherwise, she could run in district 6.
6. (Safe D) Betty Jean Alexander is a political lightweight who beat a white incumbent in a huge primary upset in 2018. She will likely run here, but could face Livonia incumbent Dayna Polehanki.
7. (Safe D) The most black district on the map is mostly in Oakland. It will likely see a primary between white incumbents Jeremy Moss and Rosemary Bayer.
8. (Safe D) Mallory McMorrow lives here, and will probably run here, though the majority of her current district is in new 9. She could face a primary from a Detroit candidate.
9. (Lean R) State rep. Michael Webber (R) may run here. Mallory McMorrow (D) represents about 2/3 of this seat, but lives in new 8.
10. (Safe D) Paul Wojno will likely run here. He could face a primary from a Detroit candidate.
11. (Tossup) This slice of Macomb has moved R, but votes more D downballot. Michael MacDonald (R) lives here.
12. (Lean R) This distict hugging the Lake St. Clair shoreline is actually a good draw for Rs. Unlike the congressional and state house maps, the Grosse Pointes are not drowned in a Detroit district. State rep. Pam Hornberger (R) narrowly lost a state senate special primary in 2021, and is the likely R candidate here.
13. (Lean D) Ten years ago, this would have been an R district, but these upscale suburban areas moved left under Trump. This district borders on safe D, and only the hope of a suburban backlash is keeping it competitive. No incumbent lives here.
14. (Lean D) In one of the outrageous pro-D gerrymanders on the map, Ann Arbor is split in half in an attempt to drown most of Jackson County in a D district. Possible student turnout dropoff and the possibility of an Ann Arbor progressive being nominated are only barely keeping this seat competitive. State rep. Julie Alexander (R) could run here.
15. (Safe D) The rest of Washtenaw is safe for any D. I don't know if Jeff Irwin lives here or in 14.
16. (Safe R) This seat is open, with old 17 incumbent Dale Zorn termed out. State reps Bronna Kahle and TC Clements are running for this seat.
17. (Safe R) This absurd district takes a swath of rural territory from Berrien to Jackson counties. No incumbent lives here, but Kim LaSata represents about 2/3 of this seat and could move.
18. (Safe R) This succeeds old 19, and goes from three whole counties to one whole county and parts of five others. John Bizon shouldn't have any trouble here.
19. (Safe D) Mostly the same as old 20, plus or minus a couple townships. Sean McCann was the first D to win this seat in 2018, but probably won't have much trouble this time.
20. (Safe R) This is a messier successor to old 26, stretching from Benton Harbor to the Grand Rapids suburbs. Aric Nesbitt, who is the presumptive next R senate leader, lives in 19. However, he will certainly run here, where the large majority of his constituents live. Kim LaSata lives here, but could move to 17 to avoid a primary.
21. (Safe D) In another outrageous pro-D gerrymander, Lansing is split, and East Lansing is put a into separate district. This district takes away the Eaton County base of Tom Barrett (R), who is running for Congress instead.
22. (Safe R) Livingston County will no longer share a district with Washtenaw, to the delight of folks on both sides of the county line. Conservative Lana Theis faces a primary from a challenger unhappy with her refusal to endorse election fraud conspiracy theories.
23. (Safe R) Jim Runestad gets a significantly safer district, but could face a primary with Ruth Johnson if she chooses to move here.
24. (Safe R) This packs much of the most R territory in Oakland and Macomb. Doug Wozniak just won a special election for a Macomb-based seat. Ruth Johnson also lives here; while she doesn't represent much of this district now, she is well-known from her previous offices. State rep. John Reilly could run if Johnson doesn't.
25. (Safe R) Dan Lauwers keeps almost all his existing district, and shouldn't have any trouble.
26. (Safe R) Kevin Daley is the only incumbent here, but could face a primary from a Saginaw or Genessee-based candidate.
27. (Safe D) This is a reasonable seat containing most of the core of Genessee County. It is open, since D leader Jim Ananich is termed out.
28. (Lean D) This is the other half of the gerrymander that split East Lansing from Lansing. There is a chance that this could be competitive due to turnout dropoff amongst MSU students and the chance of a D nominee too far left for the district. State rep. Ben Frederick (R) would be a good candidate if he is interested.
29. (Safe D) This district was held by an R until 2018, but Grand Rapids has zoomed left under Trump. Winnie Brinks will presumably run here.
30. (Lean R) Another gerrymander is splitting Grand Rapids between 29 and 30 to create a competitive district here. Fortunately, the rural areas of Kent and Ottawa are still solidly R downballot, through the presidential numbers got much worse under Trump. Mark Huizenga was elected in a special election in 2021, and should be a good candidate to hold this seat.
31. (Safe R) Roger Victory should have another easy victory here.
32. (Lean R) This seat loses heavily R Newaygo County and adds more competitive areas along the lakeshore in a mild pro-D gerrymander. However, these areas have been moving right, so this district will still likely elect an R. Curt VanderWall lives here, but has most of his territory elsewhere, while Jon Bumstead represents the majority of this seat, but lives outside it in Newaygo County. Presumably, one of them will run here, and one will run elsewhere.
33. (Safe R) Rick Outman lives here, but the majority of his current constituents are in 34. Jon Bumstead also lives here, but could move to 33.
34. (Safe R) This district has no incumbent, but Rick Outman could move here, since he represents the majority of it now.
35. (Tossup) This is another pro-D gerrymander, combining three mid-Michigan seats to make about the best district possible for Ds. While all cities, Saginaw (blacks), Bay City (white working class), and Midland (upscale Rs) have little in common demographically. A decade ago, this would have been safe D, but Bay County has moved right. Turnout in Saginaw and candidate quality have long been a problem for Ds. With Jim Stamas term-limited, there is no incumbent here. State rep. Annette Glenn is running.
36. (Safe R) This seat has no incumbent, but Curt VanderWall could move here. State rep. Michele Hoitenga has announced a campaign for this seat.
37. (Safe R) This seat only slightly shifts from its current version. With Wayne Schmidt term-limited, the seat is open.
38. (Safe R) This seat adds more area, and now has almost all of the Upper Peninsula. Incumbent Ed McBroom has angered Trump due to his refusal to endorse election fraud conspiracy theories, but has yet to attract a primary challenger.
Summary of Ratings:
Safe D: 13 (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 19, 21, 27, 29)
Lean D: 4 (4, 13, 14, 28)
Tossup: 2 (11, 35)
Lean R: 4 (9, 12, 30, 32)
Safe R: 15 (16, 17, 18, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 31, 33, 34, 36, 37, 38)
The map is clearly gerrymandered to help Ds in the name of "partisan fairness". Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Ann Arbor are split for no legitimate community of interest reason. District 35 is also drawn to maximize the chance of electing a D. The only noticably good draw for Rs is district 12. The lack of any majority black districts is likely a violation of the Voting Rights Act. Districts 1, 3, 6, 8, and 10 split Detroit, and have no good community of interest justification. Districts 17, 18, 20, and 26 are also poor communities of interest. The map looks sloppy, and breaks 29 counties (85 total breaks), up from 6 counties (7 total breaks) on the existing map. This poor map indicates a need for major reform of the redistricting process in Michigan.
Coverage of last decade's redistricting:
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