The Western Right

A new poll by the Rossman Group has Rocky Raczkowski leading Congressman Gary Peters in the 9th Congressional district. This is a surprise as Rocky has not been considered a top-tier candidate and the race has not attracted as much attention as the 1st or 7th districts.

U.S. Rep. Peters trails in latest tracking poll

45% Raczkowski
41% Peters
10% Undecided

They also polled the statewide races.

Governor
51% Snyder
32% Bernero
17% Undecided

Attorney General
40% Scheutte
31% Leyton
29% Undecided

Secretary of State
42% Johnson
28% Benson
30% Undecided

------------------

The Detroit Free Press also has a new poll.

Poll shows Snyder has widening lead over Bernero at 53% to 29%

Governor
53% Snyder
29% Bernero
15% Undecided

Attorney General
39% Scheutte
25% Leyton
31% Undecided

Secretary of State
31% Johnson
25% Benson
39% Undecided

Monday, September 13, 2010

POLITICAL UPDATE--The Economy

This update focuses on the economy.

Ron Paul: On More Stimulus Spending
Ron Paul: Successful Economic Policies? For Whom?
Steve Sailer: The New Synthesis—And Our Posterity
Gary North: The Fed's Digital Bullets
Gary North: Coming: Great Depression 2
Gary North: Bernanke's Jackson Hole Speech
Gary North: Where the Robber Meets the Road
Gary North: Keynesianism Is Dying
Gary North: The Two-Front War on Gold

See also:
Gary North series: What is Money?
The Recession Reader
The Bailout Reader

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Republicans Lead Michigan Races

Recent polls show good news for Michigan Republicans.

Poll: Snyder keeps lead on Bernero, with few undecided
Schuette leads for AG; Johnson in Secretary of State race
Mash-up in Michigan
RealClearPolitics-MI7

Governor:
56% Snyder
36% Bernero
_8% Undecided

Attorney General:
43% Scheutte
34% Leyton
22% Undecided

Secretary of State:
43% Johnson
31% Benson
24% Undecided

Supreme Court:
21% Robert Young
16% Denise Langford Morris
61% Undecided

22% Mary Beth Kelly
14% Alton Davis
61% Undecided

(It isn't clear why these races were separated, as they appear together on the November ballot. It also isn't clear if they identified the incumbents as such.)

Proposal 1 (Constitutional Convention):
35% Yes
39% No
26% Undecided

Proposal 2 (Ban felons from office):
72% Yes
15% No
12% Undecided

MI Congressional Races:
District 1:
45% Benishek
29% McDowell

District 3:
51% Amash
30% Miles

District 7:
45% Walberg
37% Schauer

50% Walberg
40% Schauer

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Remembering 9/11

Remembering September 11

9/11 and Immigration
College Republicans of WMU honor the victims of 9/11 in a tribute of 2,997 flags
Notes from the Chairman

2010 Election Preview

The primary elections and state party conventions for 2010 have passed. Michigan's top constitutional offices, congressional seats, and the entire state legislature will be up for election next November. This article may be updated as the election approaches.

2010 Official Michigan General Candidate Listing

Governor-Leans Republican
Democrat Governor Jennifer Granholm is term-limited. She is fairly unpopular due to the state of Michigan's economy on her watch. Republicans have a good chance of picking up this seat.

On the democrat side, Lieutenant Governor John Cherry was seen as the clear favorite, but dropped out due to the widespread perception that he could not win the general election. The democrat candidate is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, formerly a state senator and representative. Bernero is backed by labor unions and 'progressives'. His running mate is Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence, a member of the anti-gun group Mayors Against Illegal Guns.

The Republican nominee is Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder. Snyder is a moderate who is not pro-life. His positions on many issues are unclear. He won the primary with strong support from independent voters. His running mate is state rep. Brian Calley, a conservative.

See also:
Rick Snyder's Ten Platitudes
Granholm's Third Term
Virg Bernero: Career Politician

Attorney General-Leans Republican
Current Republican Attorney General Mike Cox is term limited. Both parties nominated candidates at conventions in August. Democrats chose Genessee County Prosecutor David Leyton to be their nominee.

The Republican candidate is former Michigan Court of Appeals Judge, state senator, and congressman Bill Scheutte from the Midland area. Both Scheute is generally considered conservative.

Secretary of State-Leans Republican
Current Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is term limited. WSU law professor Jocelyn Bensen is the democrat nominee. She is a radical leftist who has worked for many leftist organizations including the Southern Poverty Law Center and NAACP.

The Republican nominee is Oakland County Clerk Ruth Johnson. She is a conservative and former state representative. She helped to expose the fake tea party scandal in Oakland County.

Michigan Supreme Court
There are two seats up for election on the Michigan Supreme Court. They are those of conservative Republican Robert Young and renegade moderate Republican Elizabeth Weaver. Young is running for reelection. Weaver announced for reelection as an independent, then resigned allowing Governor Granholm to appoint as her successor democrat Alton Davis, who will run as an incumbent.

Republicans also nominated Wayne County judge Mary Beth Kelly and democrats nominated Oakland County judge Denise Langford Morris.

See also: Weaver's Betrayal

Other Statewide Offices
State Board of Education
Republicans: Eileen Weiser, Dr. Richard Zeile
Democrats: Elizabeth Bauer, Lupe Ramos-Montigny

U os M Board of Regents
Republicans: Andrea Fischer Newman, Andrew Richner
Democrats: Paul Brown, Greg Stephens

MSU Board of Trestees
Republicans: Mitch Lyons, Brian Breslin
Democrats: Dennis Denno, Colleen McNamara

WSU Board of Governors
Republicans: Diane Dunakiss, Danielle Karmanos
Democrats: Ed Bruley, Brenda Moon

Democrats have swept the education board elections in 2006 and 2008.

Michigan Congressional Seats
Democrats picked up two Michigan congressional districts in 2008. These will be highly contested seats in 2010. Long-time incumbents Bart Stupak, Pete Hoekstra, and Vern Ehlers are retiring, and Carolyn Kilpatrick was defeated by state senator Hansen Clarke in the democrat primary. Most other seats will be safe for the incumbent party.

1st District (Upper Peninsula, Northern Lower Peninsula) Toss-up.
Democrat Bart Stupak announced his retirement shortly after voting for Obamacare. While Stupak held this seat for 18 years, it is politically competitive and has been won by Republicans in the past. The democrat nominee will be state rep. Gary McDowell, who is nominally pro-life and pro-gun, after democrats forced all the other candidates (Joel Sheltrown, Connie Saltonstall, Matt Gillard) out of the race. The Republican nominee is Doctor Dan Benishek, who beat state senator Jason Allen by 15 votes in the primary. The district is ideologically ideosyncratic and highly competitive.

3rd District (Kent County) Safe Republican.
Republican moderate Vern Ehlers is retiring. The Republican nominee is conservative state rep. and Tea Party favorite Justin Amash. Democrats nominated Pat Miles for this seat.

6th District (Kalamazoo/St. Joseph) Safe Republican.
Moderate Republican Fred Upton is running for a 13th term. He overcame a surprisingly strong challenge by staunch conservative former state rep. Jack Hoogendyk, who won 43% in the primary. The democrat candidate will be leftist Kalamazoo City Commissioner Don Cooney, who lost to Upton in 2008 by over 20%. There will also be several third party candidates.

7th District (Battle Creek/Jackson) Leans Republican.
Democrat Mark Schauer very narrowly defeated Republican Congressman Tim Walberg 49-46 in a hard-fought and bitter race in 2008. In 2009, Republicans picked up the senate seat that Schauer vacated by a landslide 61-34 margin. Now Walberg is seeking to reclaim his seat, and easily won the nomination again. Schauer has compiled a highly liberal voting record in Washington, supporting socialized medicine, cap-and-trade, the Obama stimulus plan, and more. Several polls have shown Walberg to be the favorite.

9th District (eastern Oakland County) Leans Democrat.
Democrat Gary Peters won this seat by defeating Republican Joe Knollenberg by a wide margin. The Republican nominee is former state rep. Rocky Rachowski.

15th District (Downriver, Ann Arbor, Monroe County) Safe Democrat.
Democrat John Dingell, a 55-year incumbent, is facing a stronger than usual challenge from Republican Dr. Rob Steele. One poll showed the race with 9 points.

Michigan Senate
All 38 seats in the Michigan state senate are up for election, and 29 have no incumbent due to term limits. Republicans succently hold a 22-16 advantage after winning a 2009 special election to replace Mark Schauer. Democrats will likely target Republican-held seats in Kalamazoo County, Grand Rapids, the northeastern lower peninsula, Muskegon County, and western Wayne County. Republicans will target democrat-held seats in southern Genessee County, the Upper Peninsula, the Thumb, central Macomb county, and Livonia.

Michigan Senate Races

20th District-Leans Republican
This district includes all of Kalamazoo County and a small part of VanBuren county. Republican Senator Tom George is leaving due to term limits. There are contested races on both sides. On the democrat side, state Rep. Robert Jones of Kalamazoo is the nominee. He is a liberal who supported several gay rights measures and pushed a bill to allow a tax increase for the Kalamazoo arena proposal.

On the Republican side, the nominee is state rep. Tonya Schuitmaker, who has represented about 30,000 people in the 21st district in VanBuren County since 2004. She is moderate to conservative. Schuitmaker opposed making English the official language of Michigan and voted to ban smoking in restaurants and bars.

The state senate seats surrounding Kalamazoo County are safely Republican. Mike Nofs should easily hold the 19th district [Calhoun, Jackson Counties] while the seats vacated by Cameron Brown [St. Joseph, Branch, Hillsdale, Lenewaee Counties], Ron Jelenik [Berrien, VanBuren, Cass Counties] and Patty Birkholz [Allegan, Barry, Eaton Counties] should stay Republican.

Michigan House
All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives are up for election. Democrats currently have a 67-43 majority. Republicans will likely target a number of seats that they lost over the past three cycles. 52 seats are open due to term limits or candidates running for other offices.

Area State House Races

The above post examines local state house races in greater detail. Most local state house races are not especially competitive.

Kalamazoo County Commission
All 17 seats on the Kalamazoo County Commission will be up for election. Democrats hold a 9-8 edge. Republicans will target the seat of democrat John Niewenhuis in Oshtemo Township, who lost in the primary, and Michael Quinn in central Portage. Democrats may target Ann Niewenhuis in Comstock Township and Nasim Ansari in northern Portage. The races are examined in greater detail in the following post.

Kalamazoo County Commission Races

Friday, September 10, 2010

Michigan Senate Races

All 38 seats in the Michigan Senate are up for election in 2010. The majority of current senators are term-limited. Republicans currently have a 22-16 majority, and have controlled the senate for the past 25 years.

2010 Official Michigan General Candidate Listing
Republican Michigander district profiles (see sidebar)

1. [eastern Detroit] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Hansen Clarke (term-limited, defeated Congressional incumbent Carolyn Kilpatrick)
Democrat: Coleman Young
Republican: Dakeisha Harwick
Analysis: Young is a current state rep. and the young son of the late race-baiting mayor of Detroit.

2. [northern Detroit, Grosse Pointes] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Martha Scott (term-limited)
Democrat: Bert Johnson
Republican: John Chouinard
Analysis: Johnson is a current state rep and also a convicted criminal.

3. [central Detroit, Dearborn] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Irma Clark-Coleman (term-limited)
Democrat: Morris Hood
Republican: Doug Mitchell
Analysis: Hood is a state rep.

4. [central Detroit] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Buzz Thomas (term-limited)
Democrats: Virgil Smith
Republican: Frederick Robinson
Analysis: Smith is a current or former state rep.

5. [western Detroit] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Tupak Hunter (running for reelection)
Democrat: Tupak Hunter
Republican: Bonnie Patrick
Analysis: None

6. [Livonia, Westland, Redford] Leans democrat.
Incumbent: Glenn Andersen (running for reelection)
Democrat: Glenn Andersen
Republican: John Pastor
Analysis: This district was drawn to lean Republican. Andersen defeated Republican senator Laura Toy in 2006. Pastor is a former state rep. from Livonia. Pastor has only raised a few thousand dollars, compared to hundreds of thousands for Andersen.

7. [western, southern Wayne County] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Bruce Patterson (term-limited)
Democrat: Kathleen Law
Republican: Patrick Colbeck
Independent: John Stewart
Analysis: This Republican district is highly vulnerable. Law is a former state rep. from the southern tier of the district. Colbeck is a tea party candidate endorsed by Right to Life. Fundraising in this district is competitive. Stewart is a liberal former Republican state rep. from the Northville/Plymouth area.

8. [downriver Detroit suburbs] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Ray Basham (term-limited)
Democrat: Hoon-Yung Hopgood
Republican: Ken Larkin
Analysis: Hopgood is a former state rep.

9. [southern Macomb County] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Dennis Olshove (term-limited)
Democrat: Steven Bieda
Republican: Michael Ennis
Analysis: Bieda is a current or former state rep.

10. [central Macomb County] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Mickey Switalski (term-limited, ran for Congress against incumbent Sander Levin)
Democrat: Paul Gieleghem
Republican: Tory Rocca
Analysis: Rocca is a state rep. from Sterling Heights, Gielegham is a Macomb County commissioner and former state rep. This race should be highly competitive. Rocca has had decent fundraising, while Gieleghem spent his money in a competitive primary.

11. [northern Macomb County] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Alan Sanborn (term-limited)
Democrat: Jim Ayers
Republican: Jack Brandenburg
Analysis: Brandenburg is a former state rep. He is a conservative who did not represent much of the district.

12. [northeastern Oakland County] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Mike Bishop (term-limited, ran for Attorney General)
Democrat: Cassandra Ulbrich
Republican: Jim Marleau
Analysis: Marleau is a former state rep.

13. [Troy, Royal Oak, Bloomfield] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: John Pappageorge (running for reelection)
Democrat: Aaron Bailey
Republican: John Pappageorge
Analysis: This district was hotly contested in 2006, with Pappageorge narrowly defeating Andy Levin. This year, democrats failed to find a strong candidate.

14. [southeastern Oakland County] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Gilda Jacobs (term-limited)
Democrat: Vincent Gregory
Republicans: Michael Peters
Analysis: Gregory is a current state rep.

15. [southwestern Oakland County] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Nancy Cassis (term-limited)
Democrats: Pam Jackson
Republicans: Mike Kowall
Analysis: Kowall is a former state rep.

16. [Lenewaee, Hillsdale, Branch, St. Joseph Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Cameron Brown (term-limited, ran for Secretary of State)
Democrat: Doug Spade
Republican: Bruce Caswell
Analysis: Both are current or former state reps.

17. [Monroe, parts of Washtenaw and Jackson Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Randy Richardville (running for reelection)
Democrat: John Spencer
Republican: Randy Richardville
Analysis: This district is competitive in principle, but democrats failed to recruit a strong candidate.

18. [Washtenaw County] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Liz Brater (term-limited)
Democrat: Rebekah Warren
Republican: John Hochstetler
Analysis: Warren is a state rep.

19. [Calhoun, Jackson Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Mike Nofs (running for reelection)
Democrat: Brenda Abbey
Republican: Mike Nofs
Analysis: This seat was held by democrat Mark Schauer until he left for Congress. Nofs won a special election overwhelmingly of Martin Griffin in 2009. Democrats did not recruit a credible candidate this time.

20. [Kalamazoo County] Leans Republican.
Incumbent: Tom George (term-limited, ran for Governor)
Democrat: Robert Jones
Republican: Tonya Schuitmaker
Analysis: George won a close reelection in 2006 over Alexander Lipsey. Jones is a popular state rep and former mayor of Kalamazoo. He is a liberal. Schuitmaker is a state rep. who represents a small part of VanBuren County. She is moderate to conservative. Both spent most of their money in competitive primaries, but Tonya was a stronger fundraiser. Kalamazoo city democrats often have difficulty in the rest of the county. A good Republican year should be enough to overcome Tonya's geographical disadvantage.

21. [Berrien, Cass, VanBuren Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Ron Jelenek (term-limited)
Democrat: Scott Elliott
Republican: John Proos
Analysis: Proos is a state rep. and former staffer for Congressman Fred Upton.

22. [Livingston, Shiawassee Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Valde Garcia (term-limited)
Democrat: Chuck Fellows
Republican: Joe Hune
Analysis: Hune is a state rep.

23. [northeastern Oakland County] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Gretchen Whitmer (running for reelection)
Democrat: Gretchen Whitmer
Republican: Kyle Haubrich
Analysis: Whitmer dropped out of the race for Attorney General.

24. [Allegan, Barry, Eaton Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Patty Birkholz (term-limited)
Democrat: Michelle DiSano
Republican: Rick Jones
Analysis: Jones is a state rep. from Eaton County.

25. [St. Clair, Lapeer Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Jud Gilbert (term-limited)
Democrat: John Nugent
Republican: Phil Pavlov
Analysis: Pavlov is a current or former state rep.

26. [eastern Genessee, northwest Oakland Counties] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Deb Cherry (term-limited)
Democrat: Paula Zelenko
Republican: David Robertson
Analysis: Zelenko and Robertson are former state reps. Robertson is a strong conservative. Robertson has had strong fundraising, but spent his money in the primary. This seat was competitive in 2002 despite Republicans not devoting any attention to it.

27. [Flint, western Genessee County] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: John Gleason (running for reelection)
Democrat: John Gleason
Republican: Vernon Molnar
Analysis: Gleason is safe.

28. [Kent County outside Grand Rapids] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Mark Jansen (running for reelection)
Democrat: Robin Golden
Republican: Mark Jansen
Analysis: None.

29. [Grand Rapids, Kentwood] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Bill Hardiman (term-limited, ran for Congress)
Democrat: Dave LaGrand
Republican: Dave Hildenbrand
Analysis: Hildenbrand is a state rep from Lowell, while LaGrand was a Grand Rapids city commissioner. Hildenbrand has a fundraising advantage, while LaGrand has a geographic advantage.

30. [Ottowa County] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Wayne Kuipers (term-limited, ran for Congress)
Democrat: John Chester
Republican: Arlan Meekhof
Analysis: Meekhof is a state rep.

31. [the Thumb] Leans democrat.
Incumbent: Jim Barcia (term-limited)
Democrat: Jeff Mayes
Republican: Mike Green
Analysis: Mayes is a state rep. from Bay County. Green lost to Barcia, a former congressman, in 2002. Mayes has a strong fundraising advantage. Green sponsored the concealed carry bill when he was in the state house.

32. [Saginaw, Gratiot Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Roger Khan (running for reelection)
Democrat: Debasish Mridha
Republican: Roger Khan
Analysis: Democrats failed to recruit a strong candidate against Khan, who won a nail-biter in 2006.

33. [Clinton, Ionia, Montcalm, Isabella Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Alan Cropsey (term-limited)
Democrat: James Hoisington
Republican: Judy Emmons
Analysis: Emmons was appointed to replace state rep. Brian Calley, who was selected to be Rick Snyder's running mate for Lieutenant Governor. She is a former state rep. from Montcalm County.

34. [Muskegon County] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Gerald VanWoerkem (term-limited)
Democrat: Mary Valentine
Republican: Geoff Hansen
Analysis: Both are state reps. This seat has been quite competitive in past elections. Hansen has a fundraising advantage, while Valentine has a geographic advantage.

35. [north-central lower peninsula] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Michelle McManus (term-limited, running for Secretary of State)
Democrat: Roger Dunigan
Republican: Darwin Booher
Analysis: Booher is a state rep.

36. [northeastern lower peninsula, Midland] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Tony Stamas (term-limited)
Democrat: Andy Neumann
Republican: John Moolenaar
Analysis: Neumann narrowly lost a race to the incumbent in 2002. Both candidates are state reps. Moolenaar has a large fundraising advantage.

37. [northern lower peninsula, eastern upper peninsula] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Jason Allen (term-limited, ran for Congress)
Democrat: Bob Carr
Republican: Howard Walker
Analysis: Walker is a state rep.

38. [Upper Peninsula] Leans democrat.
Incumbent: Mike Prusi (term-limited)
Democrat: Michael Lahti
Republicans: Tom Casperson
Analysis: Lahti is a state rep. Casperson is a former state rep. who lost to Congressman Bart Stupak in 2008. Casperson has a fundraising advatage.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe democrat: 11
Leans democrat: 3
Toss-up: 6
Lean Republican: 1
Safe Republican: 17

Kalamazoo County Commission Races

The nominees for Kalamazoo County Commission were decided in the August primary. Here we examine the contested races. Democrats currently control the board 9-8. To win back control, Republicans will have to hold all the seats that lean Republican while picking up at least one of the two competitive seats that are held by democrats.

Note that some ratings have change since the primary.

Unofficial Candidates List for August 3, 2010 Primary

Many races are uncontested. No Republicans filed for districts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. No democrats filed for districts 8 or 14. Democrat Michael Seals defeated incumbent democrat Franklin Thompson in district 6.

7. [Milwood area] Safe democrat.
Incumbent David Buskirk is being challenged by Republican Kai Phillips. Buskirk is a long-time popular incumbent, and is safe here. Phillips ran unsuccessfully for Kalamazoo City Commission last year.

9. [northern Portage] Leans Republican.
Incumbent Republican Nasim Ansari is being challenged by democrat Chuck Vliek. Ansari, a veteran of the County Commission and Portage City Council, was first elected with 67% of the vote in 2002. However, he has faced closer elections since then, dropping to 52% in 2008. Vliek is the son of longtime Portage City Council member Ted Vliek.

10. [central Portage] Leans Republican.
Incumbent democrat Michael Quinn is being challenged by Republican Phil Stinchcomb. Quinn was elected in 2008 by defeating former Portage Mayor James Graham, who did almost no campaigning. Republican Tom Drabik was retiring. Quinn opposed the arena proposal and cosponsored a measure that would have prevented abortion funding, which may alienate some democrats. Stinchcomb is a conservative Republican who ran unsuccessfully for Portage City Council last year.

11. [Texas Township] Safe Republican.
Republican Tim Rogowski is seeking a full term after recently being appointed to fill the seat of the late Grady Biby. Democrat Barbara Hammon is also seeking this seat, which is the most Republican in the county.

12. [Oshtemo Township] Leans Republican.
Democrat incumbent John Nieuwenhuis was defeated in the democrat primary by Oshtemo Township Trustee Scott McCormick. He received on 30% in a three-way race. Nieuwenhuis defeated incumbent Republican Bob Brink, who did little campaigning, in 2006 and held off Republican Chris Haenicke in 2008. McCormick did no visible campaigning in 2008 and was elected purely based on straight-ticket voting. He is a leftist who cites ralph Nader and Dennis Kucinich as his political role models. The Republican nominee will be Brandt Iden.

13. [Cooper and Alamo Townships, Parchment] Safe Republican.
Incumbent Republican Deb Buchholtz faces democrat Harvey Hanna.

15. [Comstock Township] Leans Republican.
Incumbent Republican Ann Nieuwenshuis faces democrat Leroy Crabtree, who she unseated in 2008. Nieuwenhuis, a moderate Republican, opposed the arena while supporting abortion funding. She was one of very few Republicans in the state to unseat an incumbent democrat in 2008. Crabtree, a moderate union democrat, unseated Republican Joe VanBruggen in 2006.

16. [Pavillion, Climax, Fulton Townships] Leans Republican.
Incumbent Jeff Balkema is retiring. Republicans nominated John Gisler, a leader of a local taxpayers group. Thomas Post, who ran several close-but-losing races against Balkema, will be the democrat nominee.

17. [Brady, Schoolcraft, Priare Ronde Townships] Safe Republican.
Incumbent moderate Republican David Maturen faces democrat Jerry Rudolph.

Sunday, September 05, 2010

Political Extortion

An article in the Lansing State Journal explains how MSU Trustee was ousted at the state convention.

GOP faction worked to oust MSU trustee from place on ticket

Conflicting stories
There is a back story to this that is unprovable, a case of conflicting accounts of a private conversation, but part of the picture nonetheless.

In March, Nugent told the MIRS newsletter that Chuck Yob, former member of the Republican National Committee and a consultant for Strategic National Campaign Management, the Grand Rapids firm run by his son, John, came to him with a proposition. Yob would work for Nugent's campaign for $5,000 a month. If Nugent wasn't interested, Yob would find somebody to run against him.

"The conversation never happened as described," Yob said in an e-mail Tuesday. "It is unfortunate that it has been so mischaracterized. Whether this was done in an effort to build support within the establishment of the Party, I do not know, but it seems to have backfired."

But, as it happened, Lyons did hire Strategic National to manage his campaign, but said that it wasn't Yob who asked him to run.

"I wouldn't have run under those circumstances," he said. "I'm my own man. There is too much involved in a statewide campaign."

Votes 'out of step'
Voorheis said he is "just someone who believes in Mitch."

Glenn said he got the information on Nugent from a young Republican activist and former party vice-chairman named Matt Hall, who circulated an e-mail of his own.

Hall said he considers John Yob a friend, and did give $25 to Lyons' campaign, but said he has no formal or informal affiliation with that campaign.

He said in an e-mail that he went after Nugent because he "voted with the Democrat trustees ... to enact radical social policies pushed by far left campus activists."

"These votes were out of step with the mainstream of the Republican Party and the general public," he said. "The Republican delegates made the right choice replacing him."

Hall campaigned with and for Lyons on the floor of the convention.

Saturday, September 04, 2010

Money On Fire Update!

Now that the post-primary campaign finance reports are out, we have the final answer to the question of how badly the three local self-funding candidates wasted their money.

The three candidates are Mark Totten, Lorence Wenke, and Grant Taylor.

We consider the number of dollars spent per vote.

Mark Totten
Spent: $167, 736
Votes: 3876
Dollars per vote: $43.28 per vote

Lorence Wenke
Spent: $380,879
Votes: 8371
Dollars per vote: $45.50 per vote

Grant Taylor
Spent: $95,246
Votes: 737
Dollars per vote: $129.23 per vote

GRANT TAYLOR WINS!!!

POLITICAL UPDATE--Education

This update focuses on education.

JH Huebert: School Vouchers Are Not Libertarian
Steve Sailer: “Bad Students”—Unmentionable Cause Of The Great Achievement Gap
Phyllis Schlafly: Un-American American History Courses
Gary North: Bring Down the Ruling Elite
Gary North: The Ron Paul Curriculum
Phyllis Schlafly: The NEA's Latest Shenanigans
John Taylor Gatto: The Public School Nightmare
Gennady Stolyarov II: Public Schools Are Anti-Mind

Learn more about education issues in Education Reporter.

Friday, September 03, 2010

Granholm's Third Term

What a choice we have for governor in November. On the one hand, we have someone who hires a longtime democrat aide to Granholm, Cherry, and Carl Levin. On the other hand, we have... democrat Virg Bernero.

DE WITT JOINS SNYDER CAMPAIGN
Chris De Witt, a longtime Democratic operative who has worked for Governor Jennifer Granholm, Lt. Governor John Cherry Jr., former Attorney General Frank Kelley and U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, made a stunning move Friday and joined the campaign of Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder as a senior adviser.

Republicans who ignore warning signs like this should not be surprised when Snyder turns out to be a liberal. Republican turncoat governor Arnold Schwarzenegger did the same thing when he ran for governor of California, and after a year of acting like a conservative, he became a de facto democrat.

Snyder ran a gauzy, platitude-filled primary campaign in which he was never seriously challenged on the issues. Snyder's nerdy businessman who can 'reinvent Michigan' is to 2010 as Barack Obama's tranformative, post-partisan optimist preaching 'hope and change' is to 2008.

As far as anyone can tell, Snyder's economic plan is essentially the same as Granholm's policies that have failed for eight years. He wants to use government to pick winners and losers and 'help' business. Don't be surprised when we get the same results.

Fake Tea Party Exposed, Defeated

The Michigan Supreme Court drove a stake through the heart of the fake tea party, ruling 5-2 to affirm the board of canvassers' ruling denying it a spot on the ballot. The Republicans and democrats Davis and Cavanagh were the majority.

Meanwhile, in a case of real journalism, the Free Press provides an even larger mountain of evidence that the fake tea party was a democrat party operation from the beginning.

Michigan Tea Party has some Democratic ties

We know Oakland County democrat chairman Mike McGuinness, who is only 26, and his roommate Jason Bauer, their executive director, were involved. What we don't yet know is if democrat party boss Mark Brewer was behind the whole thing. Given how amateurish the whole operation was, maybe he wasn't.

We also don't yet know who paid the costs of the paid petition gatherers and the fake tea party lawyer.

Meanwhile, real tea partiers should redouble their efforts to elect conservatives in November.

Interview with Amash

National Review interviews state rep. Justin Amash, who is the Republican nominee for the third congressional seat being vacated by Vern Ehlers.

Facebook the Nation

Local News

Local news around Kalamazoo.

Jones calls again for penalties for hiring illegal immigrants
Kalamazoo River oil spill workers detained in Texas
Police arrest alleged undocumented immigrants said to have worked on Kalamazoo River oil spill cleanup

Democrat Don Cooney plans to join Labor Day rally in bid against Republican U.S. Rep. Fred Upton
Western Michigan University names Martha Warfield Vice President for diversity and inclusion
Michigan senate race was costly: GOP field alone spent more than $700,000
Kalamazoo city commissioner succumbs to cancer: Terry Kuseske remembered for his compassion
Poll shows majority of voters support making Michigan a right-to-work state

Western Michigan University hires new fundraising vice president
Western Michigan University's summer vacation?: Construction
On the ballot: Southwest Michigan voters will have a lot to consider in November

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Weaver's Betrayal

The day before the Republican state convention, Michigan Supreme Court Justice Elizabeth Weaver resigned from the court. Governor Jennifer Granholm quickly appointed Appeals Court judge Alton Davis to replace Weaver, giving democrats a 4-3 majority on the court.

Weaver had been nominated by the Republican party in 1994 and 2002 and had only a few months left in her term. She had filed to run for reelection as an independent months earlier. It was quickly revealed in news reports that the whole situation was masterminded by Weaver. Months earlier, she had contacted judge Davis to recruit him as her replacement on the court. Then she contacted the governor and offered to resign provided that Granholm appoint Weaver's anointed successor. Granholm agreed to the scheme. Weaver never intended to run for election; her filing was a ruse. Resigning allowed Davis to run as an incumbent, giving him the advantageous incumbent designation on the ballot that usually propels incumbent judges to victory.

Weaver's actions constitute a final betrayal of the Republican party.

How did it come to this? Weaver's actions stem from a personal slight and reveal a warped character.

The Chief Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court is elected by the seven members of the court. Traditionally, the post is rotated amongst the judges, with a judge serving two two-year terms as chief before relinquishing the position to another judge. When Republicans achieved a majority on the Michigan Supreme Court, they gained the ability to select one of their own as chief. Since she was the most senior Republican, the moderate Weaver was elected chief in 1998 with the support of her more conservative colleagues.

According to her colleagues on the court, Weaver was incompetent in her position as chief. Accordingly the four more conservative judges decided not to support her for a second two-year term as chief. This was not an ideological issue, as not only the conservatives but also the court's two democrats voted 6-1 not to reappoint Weaver as chief but instead to appoint conservative Maura Corrigan as chief.

Weaver has harbored a bitter grudge against the court's conservatives ever since. She has personally attacked them in print. She has voted with the court's democrats on many legal matters, seemingly out of spite. The court has been dysfunctional and divided. The division is not between Republicans and democrats, but between Republicans and Weaver.

Weaver's backstabbing shouldn't be a surprise. In 2005, only two years into her second term, she announced that she would resign from the court, giving her seat to the democrats. She was apparently talked out of it at the time.

Weaver is good reason to never trust a moderate Republican. She should have been denied renomination in 2002 when her flawed character was already apparent. Unfortunately, Republican party leaders didn't have the foresight then to do so.

------------------

Parting note: Democrat Michigan Supreme Court judges Marilyn Kelly and Michael Cavanagh are both serving their final terms on the court due to age restrictions. Will we see similar switcheroos, consisting of last-minute resignations and appointments, after the election?

Convention Controversy

Here are a couple articles on the controversy over the nomination of the Lieutenant Governor at the state Republican convention.

Smoking Out The Rats In A Snake Pit - Calley vs. Cooper
Insider’s Report on the Lt. Governor’s Nominations and Vote

On a side note, Brenda Lawrence, who is Virg Bernero's pick for Lieutenant Governor, is one of two Michigan members of the anti-gun group Mayors Against Illegal Guns, along with Kalamazoo's Bobby Hopewell.

Hopewell Hates Guns

Monday, August 30, 2010

POLITICAL UPDATE--Immigration

This update focuses on immigration.

James Edwards: Amnesty Means Massive Medicaid Costs
Washington Watcher: GOP Establishment’s Epiphany on Birthright Citizenship—Be Optimistic AND Suspicious!
Ann Coulter: Look Who's 'Nativist' Now!
Ann Coulter: Justice Brennan's Footnote Gave Us Anchor Babies
Allen Wall: How Mexican Law Undercuts “Anchor Baby” Interpretation of U.S. 14th Amendment
Washington Watcher: The Next Roe vs. Wade? Obama’s Pyrrhic Victory in Arizona

For more on immigration, see VDARE.com.

Virg Bernero: Career Politician

Democrat nominee for Governor Virg Bernero is a career politician who has run for office six times in the last decade.

Ingham County election results

Here are the six campaigns:

2000: state representative
2002: state senate
2003: Lansing mayor (lost)
2005: Lansing mayor (won)
2009: Lansing mayor
2010: governor

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Michigan Supports Arizona Law, Tea Party

Poll: Mich supports AZ immigration law

EPIC-MRA poll shows Tea Party support

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) - While only 5% of poll respondents identify themselves as members of the Tea Party, 44% supports the Tea Party movement, a new EPIC-MRA poll revealed.

The poll of 600 Michigan voters - for WOOD TV8 and our broadcast partners - was taken between August 21-23, and has a margin of error of 4%.

On immigration, 72% of those polled support the recently-passed law in Arizona, with 67% favoring a similar bill in Michigan.

Only 27% said they believe the economy has bottomed out and is improving, with another 33% who said the economy is at the bottom but not getting better. But 37% don't think the economy has hit bottom and will get still worse.

When asked what party they consider themselves in, 36% said Democrats, 39% Republicans and 25% independent/other. But when asked if they're liberal or conservative, 23% said liberal and 49% conservative. Another 29% said they were moderate/other.

EPIC-MRA poll on August 27, 2010

Previous:
Tea Party Popularity
74%

Michigan Republican Convention Summary

Republican Michigander writes an excellent summary of the Michigan Republican convention in East Lansing so that this blog doesn't have to.

The Michigan Republican Convention - 8-28-2010

Monday, August 23, 2010

Stabbed by Diversity

Here is the information on the Michigan serial stabbing case that the media has failed to report.

Diversity Is Strength! It’s Also…Arab Stabbing Attacks

Oshtemo Featherbedding

UPDATE: The benefits have been repealed starting in 2012.

Oshtemo Township trustees are paying themselves well at the taxpayers' expense.

Oshtemo reviews 'generous' board benefits: Trustees may add committee to set compensation

Trustees in Oshtemo are currently offered health insurance at no cost, including dental and vision coverage, as well as life insurance, a pension and long-term care coverage. Those benefits come in addition to an annual base salary of $2,400 and a per diem of $50 per meeting.

Trustees who take on additional responsibilities may have a higher annual salary, and the per diem applies to almost every meeting trustees attend, including committees of the board.

The average trustee in 2010 will earn $7,881. The three full-time board members — Supervisor Elizabeth Heiny-Cogswell, Clerk Deb Everett and Treasurer Nancy Culp — make annual salaries of $63,378.

According to a township subcommittee’s report, Oshtemo Township trustees have a lower base salary but a higher total salary than similarly sized townships in the state. The subcommittee also reported that Oshtemo Township trustees receive “generous” benefit packages compared to other townships.

The committee found that only 22 percent of Michigan townships with similar populations as Oshtemo offer health insurance to their trustees. Most that do offer health insurance limit coverage to the trustee only.

In Oshtemo Township, the seven board members are eligible to receive the same family health insurance plan as township employees.

Most townships surveyed contribute to pension plans, according to the report, and average contributions range from 8 to 15 percent of trustees’ salaries. Oshtemo’s contribution for trustees is 12.5 percent.

Heiny-Cogswell, Borgfjord, and McCormick are democrats who were elected in 2008. McCormick is a democrat nominee for county commissioner this November.

Local News

Local news around Kalamazoo.

Kalamazoo College ranked among the nation's top liberal arts institutions
Western Michigan University ranked among the nation's top universities
Downtown Kalamazoo Arena supporters hope for extension as deadline for tax-free bonds looms
Arcus donation to help fund Kuseske scholarship
Marijuana-enforcement measure won't be on Kalamazoo's 2010 ballot
Oshtemo reviews 'generous' board benefits: Trustees may add committee to set compensation

Kalamazoo County commissioners to debate local preference in contracts
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek airport expects return to profitability
Gun store owner calls for boycott of St. Joseph County Grange Fair
Fred Upton says he will debate Don Cooney in 6th District congressional race
How is Western Michigan University doing? Public comment sought on quality of Kalamazoo school
Candidates file for Southwest Michigan offices in Nov. 2 election
Homeschooling can pave fast track to college

Sunday, August 22, 2010

POLITICAL UPDATE--Sovereignty

This update focuses on sovereignty.

Phyllis Schlafly: The Feminist Left Goes Global on Our Money
Gary North: The Globalist Power Grab
Phyllis Schlafly: How Republicans Can Blow the Coming Election
Raven Clabough: Crime, Inc.— The Movement Toward Global Government
William Jasper: The Grasp of Socialist International

United Nations: Eagle Forum: United Nations
North American Union: Eagle Forum Stop SPP
Trans-Texas Corridor: Corridor Watch

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Detroit: How Times Change

Monday, August 16, 2010

POLITICAL UPDATE--The Culture War

This update focuses on the culture war.

Angelo Codevilla: America's Ruling Class – And the Perils of Revolution
Gary North: Codevilla's Not-Quite Manifesto
Thomas Sowell: Race, Baseball, and Baloney
Pat Buchanan: The Mosque at Ground Zero
Steve Sailer: James Edwards’ Racism Schmacism—Combating PC Newspeak
Steve Sailer: Jim Webb, The GOP, And The Sammy Sosa Solution
Phyllis Schlafly: The Awesome Power of Family Courts
Steve Sailer: Barack Obama—After Two Rough Years, An Even Bigger Wake-Up Call Is Coming

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Founding Fathers

The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Founding Fathers
By Brian McClanahan

This tome is another in Regnery's popular Politically Incorrect Guide series. The book begins by debunking a number of myths about the Founding Fathers, such as that Thomas Jefferson fathered a child with Sally Hemmings. It explains how the American Revolution was a conservative revolution, with the purpose of preserving the rights of Englishmen. It briefly considers their positions on some of the issues common to both then and now, such as guns, God, and government power.

Most of the book contains brief biographies of many of the Founders. It first considers the "big six": Washington, Jefferson, Adams, Madison, Hamilton, Franklin. It then profiles fourteen "forgotten founders" (Sam Adams, Carroll, Clinton, Dickinson, Gerry, Hancock, Henry, Lee, Macon, Marion, Marshall, Mason, Sherman, Taylor).

The profiles make special mention of their positions on 'politically incorrect' issues such as secession, nullification, federalism vs. antifederalism, central banking. It also examines their positions on slavery. (None thought slavery was a good thing, but they differed over what could be done about it.)

This book makes for interesting and informative reading.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Arguing With Idiots

Arguing With Idiots: How to Stop Small Minds and Big Government
By Glenn Beck

Conservative radio and television host Glenn Beck has been cranking out books at a frantic pace. One of the more recent is Arguing with Idiots. The book covers a variety of topics of current interest. The format is a conversation with an idiot, providing facts and arguments to debunk his specious claims. The format is similar to that of An Inconvenient Book in that the book has lots of jokes, sidebars, "ADD moments", and more.

The topics covered are capitalism, the Second Amendment, education, energy, unions, illegal immigration, the nanny state, home ownership, economics, US presidents, health care, and the Constitution.

Much of this territory has been covered before, albeit not in the same way. Probably the most original chapter is the one on home ownership, which takes on conventional wisdom that has been embraced by many conservatives. A few idiotic statements managed to slip into this book, such as "we are a nation of immigrants" and "suggesting that minorities from traditionally poorer socioeconomic backgrounds can't be on par with white peers is nonsense". Still, most of this book is well-justified and makes for profitable reading, at least for those not used to deeper fare.

Previous:
Conservative of the Year: Glenn Beck
Glenn Beck's Common Sense
Books in Brief (An Inconvenient Book)

Monday, August 09, 2010

Analysis of the 20th Senate Primary

Tonya Schuitmaker won a surprisingly large victory in the Republican primary for the 20th state senate district. It was also broad-based. While each of the three Republican candidates had a distinct geographical base, Tonya won all three of them. Overall, Tonya won 53%, Lorence Wenke won 28%, and Larry Deshazor won 19%.

Election Magic-Senate District 20
20th District State Senate race: Battle for seat between Robert Jones and Tonya Schuitmaker looks like a toss-up

Incredibly, Wenke did not win a single precinct of his former district. He didn't get as much as 40% in any of them. Perhaps this shouldn't be so surprising though, as Wenke lost the Kalamazoo County portion of his old district in 2004 and 2006, the last two times he ran for election. Both times he was saved by the Calhoun County portion of the district. He survived by fewer than 100 votes in 2004 after voting against an initiative to correctly define marriage, and won by a few points in 2006. In both cases he beat former Rep. Jerry VanderRoest, outspending him by huge margins. Evidently he remains unpopular in his own district, and was overwhelmed by a candidate who could match him dollar-for-dollar.

Wenke did win six precincts (K Twp 1, Kalamazoo City 3, 8, 14, 17, 23) in the 60 district. He tied Tonya in four others, Cooper 5, K Twp 2, Kalamazoo City 5, 19.

Larry won only four precincts, all in Portage. They are Portage 4, 14, 18, 20. His best showing was 41% in Portage 4.

The Gazette calculates that

In Comstock Township where Wenke runs his greenhouse business, Schuitmaker garnered 56 percent of the vote. In Galesburg, where Wenke lives, she won 43 percent of ballots to Wenke’s 39 percent.

In Portage, where DeShazor served on the city council for five years, Schuitmaker won 41 percent of the vote while 33 percent of ballots cast Tuesday went to DeShazor.

In Texas Township, 23 percent of the Republican primary voters supported DeShazor and 57 percent selected Schuitmaker.

Breaking the results down by state house district, we find the following.

District____ Larry Tonya Wenke
60th district__ 14%__ 51%__ 35%
61st district__ 27%__ 48%__ 25%
63rd district__ 13%__ 55%__ 31%
Van Buren____ 6%__ 74%__ 20%

Why did Tonya do so well? It had to be her endorsements. Virtually all of the prominent local Republicans who made endorsements supported her. They ranged from conservatives like Mary Balkema to moderates like Fred Upton and Al Heilman. Some did not endorse anyone publicly, but several prominent local Republicans privately supported her as well. The only local official who this blog is aware of supporting Larry is county commissioner Tim Rogowski. This blog is not aware of any local officials endorsing Wenke.

Wenke spent a lot of money, but self-funding candidates usually lose, as this blog has discussed before. Larry had little money to spend. He was apparently convinced to run by the Yob faction of the state party against the advice of most of his local supporters. This happened after the Yobs were turned down by Tonya and Wenke for consulting work, which Larry hired them for. Many of Larry's previous supporters were upset by his decision to run for senate after spending so much to elect him to the state house in 2008.

So what next? Tonya faces a tough general election race against Robert Jones, who won the democrat primary. The Gazette article discusses this in more depth. This blog suspects that Lorence Wenke has made his last bid for public office. DeShazor will probably recover from his career suicide, perhaps by returning to the Portage city council after Margaret O'Brien (presumably) wins Larry's district in November.

Sunday, August 08, 2010

Money on Fire

It's time to ask the burning question: Which local candidate set fire to the biggest pile of money in the 2010 primary election?

The three contestants are Mark Totten, Lorence Wenke, and Grant Taylor.

The contest will be decided based on the the number of dollars spent per vote. (Note that spending totals are based on pre-primary spending reports, so the final ratios will be larger.) Let's look at the numbers!

Mark Totten
Spent: $126,754
Votes: 3876
Dollars per vote: $32.70 per vote

Lorence Wenke
Spent: $249,534
Votes: 8371
Dollars per vote: $29.81 per vote

Grant Taylor
Spent: $53,655
Votes: 737
Dollars per vote: $72.80 per vote

GRANT TAYLOR WINS!!!

POLITICAL UPDATE--The Economy

This update focuses on the economy.

Gary North: Crowding Out Our Future Wealth
Gary North: Economic Warnings From Two Respected Analysts
Gary North: Bonds and the Fading Recovery
Gary North: Shun These Two Bad Investments
Gary North: Desperate Troubles Ahead
Steve Sailer: The Minority Mortgage Meltdown: More Evidence—But Our Elite Doesn’t Want To Know

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Saturday, August 07, 2010

Local News

Local news and election results.

Local election results: Election Magic

Kalamazoo County election results could boost downtown arena's prospects
Tom George going back to the operating room after 10 years in Lansing
Police release sketch of suspect in stabbing of Western Michigan University student
Two Michigan colleges ranked among most religious
Next on Michigan gubernatorial candidates' list: Pick running mates
Don Cooney wants to debate Congressman Fred Upton in every county in 6th District
Grant Taylor spent more than $100,000 on campaign, but lost to Democrat Thomas Batten in the end
Rick Snyder seeks to be Michigan's first moderate GOP governor since William Milliken
WMU’s polling location saw low turnout for primary elections

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Analysis of 6th District Congressional Race

Congressman Fred Upton was nominated for a 13th term in the 6th congressional district on Tuesday. The local media has spun this another easy victory for the invincible Upton. But Upton is smart enough to know better. Jack came closer to defeating Upton than any other primary challenger than he has had.

Let's break down the numbers.

http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/10PRI/06006000.html
http://www.electionmagic.com/results/mi/K39results/K3900101001.htm

County_______ TOTAL Jack Fred__ Jack %

ALLEGAN____ 10,760 4,139_ 5,024 45.2%
BERRIEN_____ 21,120 7,399 10,129 42.2%
CALHOUN______ 974__ 289__ 543 34.7%
CASS________ 4,944_ 1,929_ 2,084 48.1%
KALAMAZOO_ 36,114 11,380 15,492 42.3%
ST. JOSEPH___ 6,146_ 2,598_ 2,762 48.5%
VAN BUREN__ 11,509_ 3,810_ 5,971 39.0%

Totals_______ 91,567 31,544 42,005 42.9%

Breaking down Kalamazoo County, we find the following.
61st district___ 18313_ 5828_ 7660 43.2%
60th district___ 10116_ 2100_ 3379 38.3%
63rd district____ 9853_ 3386_ 4364 43.7%

The numbers are surprising. One might think that Jack's strength would be in the 61st district, which he represented for six years, but his performance there was about average. His best performance was in St. Jospeh and Cass counties, which are largely farming territory. It isn't clear why this would be. Fred hasn't done anything to upset farmers that I know of. Jack also got 42% in Berrien County, which is shocking given this is Fred's base. This is far better than Dale Shugars did there in 2002. Aside from the anomoly of Calhoun (only three precincts), Fred did best in the city of Kalamazoo (moderates, democrat crossovers) and VanBuren (??). In Kalamazoo County, Jack won Alamo 1 and 2, Cooper 3 and 4, Prairie Ronde, Schoolcraft 4, Texas 1, and Kalamazoo 14.

Were democrat crossovers a factor? Doubtless there were some, but if there were a lot, turnout would have been higher in the city of Kalamazoo and outside Kalamazoo County where there weren't democrat legislative primaries.

http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/02PRI/06006000.html

Compare Jack to previous Upton challengers.
Year Challenger Challenger %
2010 Jack Hoogendyk_ 43%
2002 Dale Shugars___ 32%
1990 (don't remember) 40%

Jack got 10000 almost more votes than Dale did in 2002, while Fred got about 2000 fewer.

All of this suggests that voters were not so much pro-Jack as anti-incumbent. We have seen a rising anti-incumbent sentiment nationally. It was not obvious locally before the election, but it was manifested at the polls. Also interesting is the fact that Upton's proteges did much better than him, with John Proos and Al Pscholka cruising to easy victories.

It is interesting to contrast Jack and Dale's campaigns. Both were heavily outspent, but Shugars had something like three times as much money to work with. Both were endorsed by Right to Life. The NRA endorsed Shugars in 2002 and Upton in 2010. Shugars had many candidates and a few elected officials endorse him (Jerry VanderRoest, Jack, Fulton Sheen, Margaret O'Brien, Nasim Ansari, John Zull, etc.). Jack had no elected officials endorse him that I know of other than his wife Erin, who is a Texas Township Trustee. Most of those previously listed endorsed Upton or remained neutral. Jack had support from the Tea Party movement.

So what next? Jack had a strong enough showing to remain a plausible future contender. Redistricting will change the boundaries of all Michigan's congressional districts for 2012, when Michigan will lose a seat. Unless the 6th district is completely dismantled or merged with another district, it will have to expand into neighboring counties such as Allegan, Barry, Calhoun, or Branch. Adding new territory would make the district more competitive in the primary.

Jack announced that he would run only 3 1/2 months before the primary election. If he runs again, he should start much earlier. His showing this time may be strong enough to attract more funding, perhaps from a group like the Club for Growth. It is also possible that some other Republican who thinks Upton is vulnerable might challenge him next time.

Election Results

This post has quick results, more detailed analysis will come later. Republican turnout was much higher than democrat across the state.

Governor and Congress
State Senate
State House
Kalamazoo County

Governor:
Republican: Snyder 36%, Hoekstra 27%, Cox 23%, Bouchard 12%, George 2%. What a disaster. Four more years of failure. More thoughts later.
Democrat: Bernero 59%, Dillon 41%. No shock given the unions all-out push for Bernero.

Congress:
1. Benishek leads Allen by 1 votes! Recount!
2. Huizinga beats Riemersma by about 800 votes.
3. Amash 40%, Heacock 26%, Hardiman 24%. Club for Growth and conservatives win a big one here.
6. Upton 57%, Hoogendyk 43%. It is shocking that this race was this close given Upton's 20:1 funding advantage. There was a tide of anti-incumbent sentiment that nobody, including me, saw coming. This was the closest that any challenger has come to Upton, far surpassing Shugars in 2002. What if Jack had had more support?
7. Walberg 58%, Rooney 32%. Not close. Hometown beats carpetbagger.
9. Rachowski 42%, Welday 28%. Welday sent me 500 emails, and it did him no good.
12. Levin 76%, Switalski 24%. Not close.
13. Clarke 47%, Kilpatrick 41%. Goodbye and good riddance.

State Senate:
7. Colbeck 31%, Whyman 27%, Mufakh 22%, Osterman 19%. Right to Life endorsement win this one. Munfakh's money didn't help him.
10. Paul Gieleghem beats Carl Marlinga by 200 votes.
11. Brandenburg 38%, Drolet 28%, Meltzer 27%. Surprising given Brandenburg's geographic disadvantage.
12. Marleau 32% Russell 25%. No surprise.
18. Warren beats Byrnes. Ann Arbor wins it.
20. Republican: Schuitmaker 53%, Wenke 28%, DeShazor 19%. Endorsements win this one for Tonya. She wins almost every precinct. Wenke remains disliked. He also lost his precinct delegate race, finishing last!
Democrat: Jones 63%, Totten 27%. About what this blog predicted.
25. Pavlov 42%, Courser 33%, Hager 26%. No big surprise.
29. Lagrand 58%, Dean 42%. Not a big surprise.
33. Calley 57%, Trebesh 43%. Trebesh's money made it somewhat close.

State House:
61. Thomas Batten got 2910 votes. No results how many write-in votes Grant Taylor got yet. I'll guess 500.
79. Pscholka 65%, Petersen 20%. No Tea Party here. Interesting Pscholka did better than his boos Upton.
80. Nesbitt 50%, Hartmann 17%. Good. Right to Life wins again.
87. Callton 47%, Fabiano 27%. Right to Life wins another one.
105. Dennis Lennox crushed with only 7%! Ouch!

Kalamazoo County:
County Commission:
3. Barnard 60%, Sweet 40%
6. Seals 63.5%, Thompson 36.5%. Incumbent democrat loses. Thompson's age was likely a factor, as he is 80-something and has been acting eratic.
11. Rogowski 58%, Cross 42%.
12. McCormick 52%, Nieuwenhuis 30%, Spicer 18%. Shocker. Nieuwenhuis was the incumbent. McCormick was elected an Oshtemo trustee in 2008 based on straight ticket voting. He has no yard signs and no visible campaign. Did he turn out the nutty democrat base in a low turnout election? Things just got easier for Republican Brandt Iden, who got more than twice as many votes as the democrats combined.
16. Gisler 57%, O'Keefe 43%. Conservative wins.

Millages pass in Comstock Twp, K Twp, Comstock Schools, fail in Comstock schools.

Kansas:
Todd Tiahrt loses narrowly.
Tim Huelskamp wins! Club for Growth wins again.
Mike Pompeo wins! Club for Growth wins again.
Kris Kobach wins! Kobach authored the Arizona immigration law.

Missouri:
Missouri says HELL NO to Obamacare 71% to 29%!

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

2010 Primary Races to Watch

It's election day. Make sure to vote. This blog will discuss results after the polls close. Here are some of the races of interest around the state.

2010 Election Preview

6 House races to watch
Senate races to watch
House races to watch

Governor: Obviously. Will it be Cox, Hoekstra, or Snyder on the Republican side? Dillon or Bernero for the democrats?

Congress:
1. Allen or Benishek? Establishment or Tea Party?
2. Kuipers/Huizinga/Riemersma/Cooper. Which conservative will win?
3. Hardiman/Heacock/Amash. Conservatives root for Amash.
6. Upton/Hoogendyk. Will Jack do better or worse than Dale Shugars eight years ago?
7. Walberg or Rooney? Walberg is a conservative champion.
9. Welday or Rachowski?
12. Can Switalski topple Sander Levin?
13. Will Carolyn Kilpatrick finally be defeated by Hansen Clarke?

State Senate:
7. Munfakh/Colbeck/Whyman/Osterman. Endorsements split in this race.
10. Paul Gieleghem versus Carl Marlinga for the democrats.
11. Drolet/Meltzer/Brandenberg. Bloody primary.
12. Marleau/Garfield/Rizzo/Russell. Marleau is the favorite.
18. Byrnes v. Warren for the democrats.
20. See below.
25. Pavlov/Hager/Courser. Two state reps and Tea Party.
29. Lagrand v. Dean for the democrats.
33. Calley/Trebesh. Can self-funding elect Trebesh?

State House:
61. Can democrat Grant Taylor beat Thomas Batten as a write-in? This blog says be doesn't get more than 20%.
79. Can Tea Party guy Paul Petersen beat Upton staffer Al Pscholka?
80. Will conservative Aric Nesbitt beat the competition?
87. Will Mike Callton beat his opponents?

20th senate district
On the Republican side, each of Larry Deshazor, Tonya Schuitmaker, Lorence Wenke could plausibly win. Tonya and Wenke have been hammering each other with negative ads accusing each other of being tax/spend/borrow/regulators, more or less correctly. Tonya has most establishment support, but geography is against her. Wenke has money. DeShazor has geography. Will voters sick of negative ads back him? It's possible. Similar things have happened in the South Dakota governor race in 2002 and in California 3 in 2004.

On the democrat side, Mark Totten has spent a small fortune attacking state rep. Robert Jones. He has attacked Jones on the arena tax, Colony Farm Orchard, and prescription drug liability. Only the first would seem to be a clear winner even in a democrat primary. Some observers think Totten will win, but this blog doesn't see him getting more than 1/3 of the vote.

Kansas: Go Todd Tiahrt, Tim Huelskamp, and Mike Pompeo!

Monday, August 02, 2010

Amash, Riemersma Lead Polls

The Grand Rapids Press conducted polls in the 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts.

Press poll shows Jay Riemersma leading Republican field to succeed Pete Hoekstra, but 2nd District race remains too close to call
Upstart Justin Amash builds support in outlying areas of 3rd Congressional District but remains within reach of rivals, Press poll shows
Press Poll: 2nd, 3rd Congressional Districts

The results:

3rd District:
28% Amash
23% Hardiman
18% Heacock
<5% others

2nd District:
22% Riemersma
15% Huizinga
15% Cooper
13% Kuipers
<5% others

University Websites

Frustration.edu

I would add 'diversity' to the circle on the left.

POLITICAL UPDATE--Government

This update focuses on government.

Chuck Baldwin: "Top Secret America": The Rest Of The Story
National Review: Ten Reasons to Oppose Dodd-Frank
Phyllis Schlafly: Obama Takes Illinois Mistakes Nationwide
Will Grigg: Police Kill a City
Gary North: Alien vs. Predator
Walter Williams: Government Aggravated Tragedy
Pat Buchanan: Bailing Out Politicians Now?
Will Grigg: Economic Hitmen Target You
Gary North: Busted: Governments, Pensions, Unions
Steven Malanga: The Municipal Debt Racket
Chris Maloney: Good Luck and Good Hunting?

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Election News

Election news around Kalamazoo.

Tuesday's primary promises hot races for Southwest Michigan voters
Richland Township trustee challenger Paul Foust says Deb Robinson is a 'liberal lion,' he's better suited for the job
Three board seats contested in St. Joseph County Board of Commissioners race
Editorial: 20th Senate district: We choose Tonya Schuitmaker and Robert Jones
GOP candidate Mike Cox makes stop in Kalamazoo, confident going into final weekend
Kalamazoo's Metro Transit rider slide continues: Another double-digit drop recorded in June
Candidates for state Senate's 20th District talk economy, education, taxes at debate
Video: 20th District Senate seat candidates debate in Kalamazoo
Editorial: Kalamazoo County Board of Commissioners
Two seek GOP nod for state Senate 21st District
One Democrat drops out of Van Buren County board race: 2 Republicans vie for nomination in District 3
Editorial: Aric Nesbitt has background, knowledge in GOP 80th district House race
Write-in candidate for Michigan House contributes nearly $106,000 to own campaign
Texas Township approves $60 special assessment for road repairs
Editorial: McCann's city experience bodes well for moving into state politics
Six from GOP vie to replace Schuitmaker in state House 80th District

In the race for U.S. Congress, Republican Jack Hoogendyk is guided by conservative principles
U.S. Congressman Fred Upton looks toward leadership role on the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee
Jack Hoogendyk vs. Fred Upton -- Read how they stand on the different issues, immigration, taxes
Editorial: Endorsement: Upton in the GOP race for U.S. House 6th District

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Jack Hoogendyk for Congress

Incumbent 6th district Congressman Fred Upton is being challenged for the Republican nomination by former state rep. Jack Hoogendyk. When considering ousting an incumbent, examining his record is key. Nobody questions that Upton is hard-working. But his record shows that he is not a conservative.

Examining Upton's ten worst votes should give plenty of reason not to support him:
Fred Upton's Ten Worst Votes

Jack's campaign website contains more information on Upton's record:
Compare the Candidates

In addition, note that Upton has voted for a number of gun control measures in the past, including the Brady bill. He also supports 'comprehensive immigration reform', including a 'path to citizenship' for illegal aliens, which not only gives them amnesty but actually rewards their lawbreaking.

Upton's record speaks for itself.

How about Jack Hoogendyk? He is a principled conservative. He was often named the most conservative member of the state legislature. He not only opposed tax increases, but he actively fought against them. He actually voted against increasing spending, unlike most of his colleagues. He is not only pro-life, but ran the Alternatives crisis pregnancy center. He is pro-gun, against amnesty, pro-marriage, and more.

Jack is the real deal. He has been endorsed by Right to Life, Citizens for Traditional Values, Concerned Women for American, Shooters Alliance for Firearms Rights, Republican Liberty Caucus, and more. He has earned the support of all conservatives.

Friday, July 30, 2010

The Case Against Rick Snyder

Republican Michigander makes the case against stealth 'Republican' Rick Snyder.

No Rick Snyder for governor. Anybody in the primary but Rick Michigan.

This blog will only add that his campaign has admitted that its strategy is to get democrats to vote in the Republican primary.

Previous: Rick Snyder's Ten Platitudes