Friday, September 10, 2010

Michigan Senate Races

All 38 seats in the Michigan Senate are up for election in 2010. The majority of current senators are term-limited. Republicans currently have a 22-16 majority, and have controlled the senate for the past 25 years.

2010 Official Michigan General Candidate Listing
Republican Michigander district profiles (see sidebar)

1. [eastern Detroit] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Hansen Clarke (term-limited, defeated Congressional incumbent Carolyn Kilpatrick)
Democrat: Coleman Young
Republican: Dakeisha Harwick
Analysis: Young is a current state rep. and the young son of the late race-baiting mayor of Detroit.

2. [northern Detroit, Grosse Pointes] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Martha Scott (term-limited)
Democrat: Bert Johnson
Republican: John Chouinard
Analysis: Johnson is a current state rep and also a convicted criminal.

3. [central Detroit, Dearborn] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Irma Clark-Coleman (term-limited)
Democrat: Morris Hood
Republican: Doug Mitchell
Analysis: Hood is a state rep.

4. [central Detroit] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Buzz Thomas (term-limited)
Democrats: Virgil Smith
Republican: Frederick Robinson
Analysis: Smith is a current or former state rep.

5. [western Detroit] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Tupak Hunter (running for reelection)
Democrat: Tupak Hunter
Republican: Bonnie Patrick
Analysis: None

6. [Livonia, Westland, Redford] Leans democrat.
Incumbent: Glenn Andersen (running for reelection)
Democrat: Glenn Andersen
Republican: John Pastor
Analysis: This district was drawn to lean Republican. Andersen defeated Republican senator Laura Toy in 2006. Pastor is a former state rep. from Livonia. Pastor has only raised a few thousand dollars, compared to hundreds of thousands for Andersen.

7. [western, southern Wayne County] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Bruce Patterson (term-limited)
Democrat: Kathleen Law
Republican: Patrick Colbeck
Independent: John Stewart
Analysis: This Republican district is highly vulnerable. Law is a former state rep. from the southern tier of the district. Colbeck is a tea party candidate endorsed by Right to Life. Fundraising in this district is competitive. Stewart is a liberal former Republican state rep. from the Northville/Plymouth area.

8. [downriver Detroit suburbs] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Ray Basham (term-limited)
Democrat: Hoon-Yung Hopgood
Republican: Ken Larkin
Analysis: Hopgood is a former state rep.

9. [southern Macomb County] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Dennis Olshove (term-limited)
Democrat: Steven Bieda
Republican: Michael Ennis
Analysis: Bieda is a current or former state rep.

10. [central Macomb County] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Mickey Switalski (term-limited, ran for Congress against incumbent Sander Levin)
Democrat: Paul Gieleghem
Republican: Tory Rocca
Analysis: Rocca is a state rep. from Sterling Heights, Gielegham is a Macomb County commissioner and former state rep. This race should be highly competitive. Rocca has had decent fundraising, while Gieleghem spent his money in a competitive primary.

11. [northern Macomb County] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Alan Sanborn (term-limited)
Democrat: Jim Ayers
Republican: Jack Brandenburg
Analysis: Brandenburg is a former state rep. He is a conservative who did not represent much of the district.

12. [northeastern Oakland County] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Mike Bishop (term-limited, ran for Attorney General)
Democrat: Cassandra Ulbrich
Republican: Jim Marleau
Analysis: Marleau is a former state rep.

13. [Troy, Royal Oak, Bloomfield] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: John Pappageorge (running for reelection)
Democrat: Aaron Bailey
Republican: John Pappageorge
Analysis: This district was hotly contested in 2006, with Pappageorge narrowly defeating Andy Levin. This year, democrats failed to find a strong candidate.

14. [southeastern Oakland County] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Gilda Jacobs (term-limited)
Democrat: Vincent Gregory
Republicans: Michael Peters
Analysis: Gregory is a current state rep.

15. [southwestern Oakland County] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Nancy Cassis (term-limited)
Democrats: Pam Jackson
Republicans: Mike Kowall
Analysis: Kowall is a former state rep.

16. [Lenewaee, Hillsdale, Branch, St. Joseph Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Cameron Brown (term-limited, ran for Secretary of State)
Democrat: Doug Spade
Republican: Bruce Caswell
Analysis: Both are current or former state reps.

17. [Monroe, parts of Washtenaw and Jackson Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Randy Richardville (running for reelection)
Democrat: John Spencer
Republican: Randy Richardville
Analysis: This district is competitive in principle, but democrats failed to recruit a strong candidate.

18. [Washtenaw County] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Liz Brater (term-limited)
Democrat: Rebekah Warren
Republican: John Hochstetler
Analysis: Warren is a state rep.

19. [Calhoun, Jackson Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Mike Nofs (running for reelection)
Democrat: Brenda Abbey
Republican: Mike Nofs
Analysis: This seat was held by democrat Mark Schauer until he left for Congress. Nofs won a special election overwhelmingly of Martin Griffin in 2009. Democrats did not recruit a credible candidate this time.

20. [Kalamazoo County] Leans Republican.
Incumbent: Tom George (term-limited, ran for Governor)
Democrat: Robert Jones
Republican: Tonya Schuitmaker
Analysis: George won a close reelection in 2006 over Alexander Lipsey. Jones is a popular state rep and former mayor of Kalamazoo. He is a liberal. Schuitmaker is a state rep. who represents a small part of VanBuren County. She is moderate to conservative. Both spent most of their money in competitive primaries, but Tonya was a stronger fundraiser. Kalamazoo city democrats often have difficulty in the rest of the county. A good Republican year should be enough to overcome Tonya's geographical disadvantage.

21. [Berrien, Cass, VanBuren Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Ron Jelenek (term-limited)
Democrat: Scott Elliott
Republican: John Proos
Analysis: Proos is a state rep. and former staffer for Congressman Fred Upton.

22. [Livingston, Shiawassee Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Valde Garcia (term-limited)
Democrat: Chuck Fellows
Republican: Joe Hune
Analysis: Hune is a state rep.

23. [northeastern Oakland County] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: Gretchen Whitmer (running for reelection)
Democrat: Gretchen Whitmer
Republican: Kyle Haubrich
Analysis: Whitmer dropped out of the race for Attorney General.

24. [Allegan, Barry, Eaton Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Patty Birkholz (term-limited)
Democrat: Michelle DiSano
Republican: Rick Jones
Analysis: Jones is a state rep. from Eaton County.

25. [St. Clair, Lapeer Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Jud Gilbert (term-limited)
Democrat: John Nugent
Republican: Phil Pavlov
Analysis: Pavlov is a current or former state rep.

26. [eastern Genessee, northwest Oakland Counties] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Deb Cherry (term-limited)
Democrat: Paula Zelenko
Republican: David Robertson
Analysis: Zelenko and Robertson are former state reps. Robertson is a strong conservative. Robertson has had strong fundraising, but spent his money in the primary. This seat was competitive in 2002 despite Republicans not devoting any attention to it.

27. [Flint, western Genessee County] Safe democrat.
Incumbent: John Gleason (running for reelection)
Democrat: John Gleason
Republican: Vernon Molnar
Analysis: Gleason is safe.

28. [Kent County outside Grand Rapids] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Mark Jansen (running for reelection)
Democrat: Robin Golden
Republican: Mark Jansen
Analysis: None.

29. [Grand Rapids, Kentwood] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Bill Hardiman (term-limited, ran for Congress)
Democrat: Dave LaGrand
Republican: Dave Hildenbrand
Analysis: Hildenbrand is a state rep from Lowell, while LaGrand was a Grand Rapids city commissioner. Hildenbrand has a fundraising advantage, while LaGrand has a geographic advantage.

30. [Ottowa County] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Wayne Kuipers (term-limited, ran for Congress)
Democrat: John Chester
Republican: Arlan Meekhof
Analysis: Meekhof is a state rep.

31. [the Thumb] Leans democrat.
Incumbent: Jim Barcia (term-limited)
Democrat: Jeff Mayes
Republican: Mike Green
Analysis: Mayes is a state rep. from Bay County. Green lost to Barcia, a former congressman, in 2002. Mayes has a strong fundraising advantage. Green sponsored the concealed carry bill when he was in the state house.

32. [Saginaw, Gratiot Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Roger Khan (running for reelection)
Democrat: Debasish Mridha
Republican: Roger Khan
Analysis: Democrats failed to recruit a strong candidate against Khan, who won a nail-biter in 2006.

33. [Clinton, Ionia, Montcalm, Isabella Counties] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Alan Cropsey (term-limited)
Democrat: James Hoisington
Republican: Judy Emmons
Analysis: Emmons was appointed to replace state rep. Brian Calley, who was selected to be Rick Snyder's running mate for Lieutenant Governor. She is a former state rep. from Montcalm County.

34. [Muskegon County] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Gerald VanWoerkem (term-limited)
Democrat: Mary Valentine
Republican: Geoff Hansen
Analysis: Both are state reps. This seat has been quite competitive in past elections. Hansen has a fundraising advantage, while Valentine has a geographic advantage.

35. [north-central lower peninsula] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Michelle McManus (term-limited, running for Secretary of State)
Democrat: Roger Dunigan
Republican: Darwin Booher
Analysis: Booher is a state rep.

36. [northeastern lower peninsula, Midland] Toss-up.
Incumbent: Tony Stamas (term-limited)
Democrat: Andy Neumann
Republican: John Moolenaar
Analysis: Neumann narrowly lost a race to the incumbent in 2002. Both candidates are state reps. Moolenaar has a large fundraising advantage.

37. [northern lower peninsula, eastern upper peninsula] Safe Republican.
Incumbent: Jason Allen (term-limited, ran for Congress)
Democrat: Bob Carr
Republican: Howard Walker
Analysis: Walker is a state rep.

38. [Upper Peninsula] Leans democrat.
Incumbent: Mike Prusi (term-limited)
Democrat: Michael Lahti
Republicans: Tom Casperson
Analysis: Lahti is a state rep. Casperson is a former state rep. who lost to Congressman Bart Stupak in 2008. Casperson has a fundraising advatage.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe democrat: 11
Leans democrat: 3
Toss-up: 6
Lean Republican: 1
Safe Republican: 17

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