Thursday, October 15, 2020

2020 Michigan State House Races

Last updated October 15, 2020.

Cross-posted at The Western RightRight Michigan, and RRH Elections.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans won a 63-47 majorities in 2014 and 2016, and a reduced 58-42 margin in 2018. There are 25 open seats, 12 held by Republicans and 13 held by democrats. There are 22 open due to term-limits, 1 just due to seeking another office, 1 due to death, and 1 pure retirement.

Democrats are hoping to take control of the state house. They may benefit from anti-Trump enthusiasm, particularly in suburban districts in Oakland County.

Republican Michigander has a profile of the Michigan state house focusing more on district demographics.





The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 state house results, 2012 Romney %, 2016 Trump % (if known), and political rating.  The complete candidate list and recent fundraising numbers are available here:

2020 Michigan Primary Candidate List
July 2020 Michigan State House Fundraising

1. (Tenisha Yancey) [Detroit] 29-71, 31-69, 32-68, 25-73, R23.5%, Safe D
2. (Joe Tate) [Detroit] 26-72, 33-67, 28-72, 27-73, 23.8%, Safe D
3. (OPEN-Wendell Byrd) [Detroit] 3-96, 3-97, 3-97, 3-97, 1.6%, Safe D
Former 2018 governor candidate and self-funding businessman Shri Thanedar spent $438,000 of his own money to win the D nomination for this seat.
4. (OPEN-Isaac Robinson) [Detroit] 5-95, 5-95, 5-95, 5-95, 3.4%, Safe D
Rep. Isaac Robinson, who succeeded his mother in 2018, died of the coronavirus in 2020.  An incredible 13 D candidates ran for this seat in the primary.  The winner was  Hamtramck city commissioner Abraham Aiyash, who narrowly lost a state senate race in 2018.
5. (Cynthia Johnson) [Detroit] 6-94, 5-95, 7-93, 6-93, 2.7%, Safe D
6. (Tyrone Carter) [Detroit] 5-92, 6-94, 7-93, 9-91, 5.3%, Safe D
This district has a strong claim to be the most diverse in Michigan, and has successively had black, Hispanic, Jewish, Muslim, Chinese, and black representatives.
7. (OPEN-LaTanya Garrett) [Detroit] 2-98, 2-98, 2-98, 2-98, 0.9%, Safe D
Helena Scott, a staffer to Garrett, won the D nomination.
8. (OPEN-Sherry Gay-Dagnogo) [Detroit] 3-97, 3-97, 4-96, 4-96, 2%, Safe D
Activist Stephanie Young won the D nomination.
9. (Karen Whitsett) [Detroit] 5-95, 4-96, 6-94, 5-95, 3.3%, Safe D
Community organizer Karen Whitsett was first elected in 2018.  She made headlines after calling the house D leader racist and praising President Trump after recovering from coronavirus.  She was condemned by the 13th district Ds, but beat back a tough primary challenge.
10. (OPEN-Leslie Love) [Detroit] 14-86, 18-82, 15-82, 14-84, 16.4%, Safe D
Mary Cavanagh, the daughter of rep Phil Cavanagh (10-14) who graduated from college last year, won the D primary.
11. (Jewell Jones) [Inkster, Garden City] 28-72, 30-70, 36-64, 33-67, R29.3%, T34.8%, Safe D
12. (Alex Garza) [Taylor, Romulus] 25-75, 30-70, 33-67, 33-67, R29.5%, T38.9%, Safe D
13. (OPEN-Frank Liberati) [Southgate, Allen Park, Dearborn Heights] 35-65, 39-61, 39-61, 37-63, R40.3%, T46.7%, Safe D
Tullio Liberati, younger brother of the incumbent, won the D primary.
14. (Cara Clemente) [Riverview, Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, Melvindale] 26-71, 30-70, 36-64, 36-64, R34.9%, T44.3%, Safe D
15. (Abdullah Hammoud) [Dearborn] 25-75, 32-68, 38-62, 31-69, R33.5%, T31%, Safe D
16. (Kevin Coleman) [Westland, Wayne] 28-68, 32-68, 36-64, 33-67, R33.3%, T38.7%, Safe D
17. (Joe Bellino) [N Monroe, Sumpter, Huron] 39-61, 40-60, 52.2-44.3, 56-44, R45.3%, T56.3%, Safe R
Republican Joseph Bellino pulled off a shocking upset in 2016 as this district moved right.  The D nominee will be Christopher Slat.
18. (Kevin Hertel) [St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe] 34-64, 38-62, 37-63, 37-63, R40.7%, T44.9%, Safe D
19. (Laurie Pohutsky) [Livonia] 60-40, 62-38, 61-39, 49.8-50.2, R52%, T51.1%, Tossup
Teacher Martha Ptashnik won the R primary in this long-Republican seat flipped in 2018.  
20. (Matt Koleszar) [Plymouth, Northville] 56-44, 60-40, 53.6-46.4, 48.6-51.4, R51.8%, T45.7%, Lean D
Marine veteran John Lacny won the R primary for this seat that flipped in 2018.
21. (OPEN-Kristy Pagan) [Canton, Van Buren] 38-62, 45-55, 41-59, 38-62, R43.3%, Safe D
Chrysler employee Ranjeev Puri won the D primary.  Laurel Hess is the R nominee.
22. (OPEN-John Chirkun) [Roseville, E Warren] 30-70, 32-64, 35-60, 34-62, R36.2%, Safe D
Roseville City Clerk Rich Steenland won the R primary.
23. (Darin Calmilleri) [SE Wayne] 50.5-49.5, 52.1-47.9, 49.7-50.3, 44-56, R47.5%, T53.8%, Safe D
24. (Steve Marino) [Harrison, N Clinton, SW Macomb] 54.7-45.3, 59-39, 55-45, 56-44, R47.5%, T56%, Safe R
25. (Nate Shannon) [E Sterling Heights, NC Warren] 48.6-51.4, 46.5-53.5, 46-54, 46-54, R47.8%, T52.5%, Lean D
Former Sterling Heights Councilman Paul Smith won the R nomination in a seat that is always close, but never close enough.  Smith has been disowned due to controversial comments.
26. (Jim Ellison) [Royal Oak, Madison Heights] 36-60, 39-61, 41-59, 31-69, R40.3%, T37.5%, Safe D
27. (OPEN-Robert Whittenberg) [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park] 20-76, 24-76, 23-77, 19-79, R24.8%, T23.3%, Safe D
Oak Park City Council Member Regina Weiss won the D nomination.
28. (Lori Stone) [W Warren, Center Line] 21-79, 36-64, 34-66, 34-63, R35.8%, Safe D
29. (Brenda Carter) [Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Orchard Lake] 23-77, 26-74, 25-71, 26-74, R23.9%, T26.7%, Safe D
30. (Diana Farrington) [W Sterling Heights, Utica, SE Shelby] 53.3-46.7, 55-45, 54-46, 57-43, R51.5%, T57.1%, Safe R
31. (William Sowerby) [S Clinton, Fraser, Mt. Clemens] 34-62, 39-61, 39-56, 40-60, R41.8%, T48.1%, Safe D
32. (Pamela Hornberger) [Chesterfield, C St. Clair] 59-41, 62-38, 64-36, 61-93, R53.9%, T64.5%, Safe R
33. (Jeff Yaroch) [NE Macomb, Macomb Twp.] 62-38, 66-34, 70-30, 65-35, R56.2%, T63.8%, Safe R
34. (Cynthia Neeley) [Flint] 13-87, 9-91, 11-89, 10-90, R8.3%, Safe D
Cynthia Neeley won a special election to replace her husband Sheldon Neeley after he was elected mayor of Flint.
35. (Kyra Bolden) [Southfield] 17-83, 17-83, 16-84, 15-85, R17.6%, T15.7%, Safe D
36. (Douglas Wozniak) [Shelby, Washington, Bruce] 64-36, 70-30, 72-28, 66-32, R61%, T65.7%, Safe R
37. (OPEN-Kristine Greig) [Farmington] 38-62, 43-57, 36-61, 33-67, R40.3%, T35.6%, Safe D
Farmington Hills City Council member Samantha Steckloff won the D nomination.
38. (OPEN-Kathy Crawford) [Novi, Lyon] 59-41, 63-37, 58-42, 49.4-48.1, R53.6%, T49.4%, Tossup
Crawford barely survived a primary challenge from the right from activist Chase Turner in 2018.  He is the R nominee this time.  Attorney and Novi city councilmember Kelly Breen is the D nominee after almost winning in 2018.  This is probably the Ds best pickup opportunity.
39. (Ryan Berman) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom] 53.3-46.7, 52.3-47.7, 50.4-42.2, 54-42, R51.5%, T50.4%, Tossup
Attorney and firearms instructor Ryan Berman beat a D candidate who was disavowed by their party in 2018.  He faces D nurse Julia Pulver, who nearly won the 15th state senate district in 2018.
40. (Mari Manoogian) [Bloomfield, Birmingham, E West Bloomfield] 57-41, 58-42, 53.5-46.5, 43-57, R52.8%, T42.7%, Safe D
This upscale R district swung left in 2018, consistent with national trends.  The R candidate will be Kendra Cleary.
41. (Padma Kuppa) [Troy, Clawson] 50.5-49.5, 56-44, 56-44, 48.7-51.3, R51.6%, T47%, Safe D
Construction manager Andrew Sosnoski won the R nomination in an upset for this seat that flipped D in 2018.
42. (Ann Bollin) [SE Livingston] 63-33, 65-35, 64-32, 60-40, R60.2%, T59.3%, Safe R
43. (Andrea Schroder) [Waterford, Independence] 66-34, 58-42, 66-34, 57-43, R54.8%, T56.8%, Safe R
The D nominee is Nicole Breadon, who lost in 2018.  Ds have made some noise about targeting this seat.
44. (Matt Maddock) [Springfield, White Lake, Highland, Milford] 63-33, 68-32, 69-31, 58-42, R59.1%, T60.6%, Safe R
Businessman, Tea Party leader and outspoken Trump supporter Matt Maddock won surprisingly easily in the 2018 primary.  Denise Forrest is the D candidate.
45. (OPEN-Michael Webber) [Rochester, S Oakland Twp] 56-44, 56-44, 62-38, 55-45, R55.9%, T51.5%, Lean R
Rochester Hills City Council member Mark Tisdell won the R nomination unopposed in this historically conservative wealthy suburban seat.  Rochester School Board member Barb Annes won the D nomination.
46. (John Reilly) [NE Oakland] 64-36, 69-31, 69-31, 60-40, R60.1%, T61.1%, Safe R
47. (OPEN-Henry Vaupel) [N Livingston] 64-32, 69-27, 68-27, 66-34, R62.5%, T65.1%, Safe R
Former Livingston County Sheriff Bob Bezotte won the R nomination.
48. (Sheryl Kennedy) [NE Genesee] 36-64, 38-62, 46-54, 45-55, R39.8%, T51.8%, Lean D
County commissioner David Martin is the R nominee for this historically D blue-collar seat won by Trump.
49. (John Cherry) [Flint Twp., Mt. Morris, SW Flint] 25-75, 26-74, 32-68, 28-72, R28.8%, Safe D
50. (Tim Sneller) [Burton, Grand Blanc, Mundy] 39-61, 41-59, 48-52, 43-57, R42.7%, T47.9%, Safe D
51. (Mike Mueller) [W Genesee, Fenton, NW Oakland] 54.3-45.7, 58-42, 61-34, 60-40, R53.1%, T59.1%, Safe R
52. (Donna Lasinski) [W Washtenaw] 47-53, 44-56, 44.7-52.2, 39-61, R47.5%, T42.5%, Safe D
Lasinski is expected to be the leader of the house Ds in the next session.
53. (Yousef Rabhi) [Ann Arbor] 19-81, 18-82, 16-80, 13-87, R19.5%, Safe D
54. (Ronnie Peterson) [Ypsilanti] 23-77, 25-75, 25-75, 21-79, R23.8%, T23.1%, Safe D
55. (OPEN-Rebekah Warren) [Pittsfield, NE Ann Arbor, York, Augusta] 32-65, 32-68, 31-69, 26-74, R31.6%, Safe D
County Commissioner Felicia Brabec is the D nominee.
56. (OPEN-Jason Sheppard) [S Monroe] 58-42, 50.3-47.1, 58-39, 62-38, R50.6%, T59.2%, Safe R
Bedford Township trustee TC Clements is the R nominee.
57. (Bronna Khale) [Lenawee] 52.5-47.5, 59-41, 56-44, 63-37, R49.9%, T57.2%, Safe R
58. (OPEN-Eric Leutheuser) [Branch, Hillsdale] 70-30, 71-29, 75-25, 71-29, R60.1%, T68.8%, Safe R
Attorney Andrew Fink won the R nomination.
59. (OPEN-Aaron Miller) [St. Joseph, E Cass] 62-38, 62-38, 67-33, 66-34, R54.7%, T62%, Safe R
Legislative staffer Steve Carra, staffer to conservative rep Steve Johnson (16-P), is a solid conservative who won the R nomination.
60. (OPEN-Jon Hoadley) [Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp.] 26-74, 30-70, 25-69, 23-77, R26.8%, T24%, Safe D
County commissioner Julie Rogers defeated Stephanie Moore for the D nomination.  Moore is running as a write-in.
61. (OPEN-Brandt Iden) [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] 58-42, 48.4-42.7, 49.4-44.7, 51.4-48.6, R49.1%, T44.9%, Tossup
Trump campaign aide Bronwyn Haltom won the R nomination and has huge fundraising.  County commissioner Christine Morse, who flipped an R district in 2018 is the D nominee.  This suburban district is one of the top D pickup opportunites.
62. (Jim Haadsma) [Battle Creek, Albion, N Calhoun] 42-58, 51.2-48.8, 48-47.5, 48.2-51.8, R43.8%, T48.4%, Lean D
Dave Morgan, former Calhoun D chairman and state house candidate turned R Pennfield Township Supervisor, is the R nominee again after narrowly losing in 2018.
63. (Matt Hall) [E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun] 50.9-49.1, 56-44, 61-33, 57-39, R54.6%, T57.5%, Safe R
64. (Julie Alexander) [Jackson city, W Jackson] 56-44, 61-39, 63-37, 58-40, R51.2%, T54%, Safe R
65. (Sarah Lightner) [N Jackson, SE Eaton] 57-43, 57-40, 61-35, 59-38, R53.4%, T59.8%, Safe R
66. (Beth Griffin) [Van Buren, Cooper, Alamo, Parchment] 59-41, 57-43, 54.3-45.7, 57-43, R49.7%, T53.5%, Safe R
Mattawan Village Council member Abigail Wheeler is the D candidate in a seat that sometimes borders on competitive.
67. (Kara Hope) [S Ingham] 44-56, 46-54, 45.4-54.6, 44-54, R44.8%, T44.7%, Safe D
68. (Sarah Anthony) [Lansing] 23-77, 23-77, 22-73, 23-75, R24.6%, T24.1%, Safe D
69. (Julie Brixie) [East Lansing, Meridian] 35-65, 32-68, 32-68, 28-72, R35.9%, T28.9%, Safe D
70. (OPEN-James Lower) [Montcalm, N Gratiot] 54.5-45.5, 62-38, 63-32, 62-38, R52.6%, T61.8%, Safe R
Lower retired after two terms.  Pat Outman, son of state senator Rick Outman, is the R nominee.
71. (Angela Witwer) [Eaton] 46.6-53.4, 50.4-49.6, 54-43, 49.2-50.8, R47.3%, T48.1%, Tossup
Businesswoman Gina Johnsen is the R nominee.
72. (Steven Johnson) [Kentwood, Gaines, NE Allegan] 59-38, 68-32, 59-41, 54-43, R56.3%, T51.7%, Safe R
73. (OPEN-Lynn Afendoulis) [Grand Rapids Twp, Plainfield, NE Kent] 64-32, 68-32, 64-32, 60-40, R60.9%, T55.5%, Safe R
Lynn Afendoulis lost a bid for congress in the primary.  Bryan Posthumus, brother of Kent County Clerk Lisa Posthumus Lyons, is the R nominee.
74. (Mark Huizenga) [Grandville, Walker, Alpine, NW Kent] 66-34, 69-31, 64-31, 60-40, R60.4%, T58.8%, Safe R
75. (Dave LaGrand) [central Grand Rapids] 24-76, 26-74, 24-76, 19-78, R23.8%, Safe D
76. (Rachel Hood) [peripheral Grand Rapids] 39-52, 45.6-52.1, 39-57, 39-61, R44.2%, Safe D
77. (Tommy Brann) [Wyoming, Byron] 60-36, 67-33, 66-34, 60-37, R58.3%, T54.2%, Safe R
78. (Brad Paquette) [S Berrien, SW Cass] 61-39, 67-33, 68-32, 61-39, R56.1%, T58.9%, Safe R
79. (Pauline Wendzel) [N Berrien] 52.8-45.7, 59-39, 59-38, 56-44, R51.5%, T51.4%, Safe R
Wendzel, a businesswoman who won a crowded primary in 2018, faces Chokwe Pitchford
80. (Mary Whiteford) [Allegan] 62-38, 63-34, 67-28, 64-36, R57.6%, T59.8%, Safe R
81. (Gary Eisen) [NW, E St. Clair] 53.8-46.2, 65-35, 69-31, 63-37, R55%, T65.6%, Safe R
82. (Gary Howell) [Lapeer] 59-41, 55-45, 69-31, 70-30, R55.1%, T66.5%, Safe R
83. (OPEN-Shane Hernandez) [Sanilac, Port Huron] 56-44, 62-38, 63-34, 64-36, R52.5%, T60.8%, Safe R
Navy reservist Andrew Beeler won a hotly contested R nomination.
84. (Phil Green) [Tuscola, Huron] 38-53, 59-41, 65-35, R55.6%, T66.6%, Safe R
85. (Ben Frederick) [Shiawassee, W Saginaw] 54-40, 53-43, 56-34, 62-38, R48.9%, T57.9%, Safe R
86. (Thomas Albert) [SE Kent, N Ionia] 70-30, 66-34, 60-35, 60-37, R63%, T58.6%, Safe R
87. (Julie Calley) [Barry, S Ionia] 62-35, 67-33, 67-28, 68-32, R58.7%, T63.5%, Safe R
88. (Luke Meerman) [NE Ottawa] 87-0, 80-20, 75-25, 71-29, R72.9%, T68.1%, Safe R
89. (Jim Lilly) [W Ottawa] 66-34, 68-32, 61-34, 62-38, R61.6%, T57.6%, Safe R
90. (Bradley Slagh) [Holland] 100-0, 78-22, 73-27, 66-34, R66.5%, T60.4%, Safe R
91. (Greg VanWoerkom) [S, W Muskegon] 47.3-48.1, 46.5-46.3, 49.3-43.7, R48.5%, T54.1%, Lean R
VanWoerkom, son of state senator (02-10) Jerry VanWoerkom, comfortably won a district that has flipped repeatedly over the past decade.  The D nominee is assistant prosecutor Brian Hosticka.
92. (Terry Sabo) [Muskegon city] 27-73, 33-67, 32-68, 31-69, R31.3%, T36.3%, Safe D
93. (Graham Filler) [S Gratiot, Clinton] 57-43, 56-35, 62-33, 52.5-44.6, R52.9%, T55.1%, Safe R
94. (Rodney Wakeman) [Saginaw Twp, E Saginaw] 56-44, 62-38, 65-35, 55-45, R55.7%, T57.7%, Safe R
95. (OPEN-Vanessa Guerra) [Saginaw city] 22-78, 24-76, 26-74, 27-73, R24.8%, T29.8%, Safe D
Saginaw County commissioner Amos O'Neal won the D nomination.
96. (Brian Elder) [Bay] 31-69, 32-68, 42-58, 43-57, R45.3%, T51.5%, Lean D
Bangor Township School Board member Timothy Beson is the R nominee.
97. (Jason Wentworth) [Arenac, Gladwin, Clare, E Osceola] 62-38, 63-37, 65-35, 68-32, R53.2%, T65.1%, Safe R
Wentworth is expected to be the house R leader next term.
98. (Annette Glenn) [C Midland, N Bay] 59-41, 55-45, 60-40, 52-48, R56%, T56%, Lean R
Glenn had a close call from D Sarah Schulz in 2018, who is back this year.  Both candidates have huge fundraising.
99. (Roger Hauck) [Isabella, W Midland] 57-43, 51.5-48.5, 54.6-45.4, 53.4-46.6, R48.1%, T52.8%, Lean R
Former Mount Pleasant public works leader John Zang is the D nominee.
100. (Scott VanSingel) [Newaygo, Oceana, Lake] 62-38, 63-37, 67-33, 66-34, R55.5%, T64.2%, Safe R
101. (Jack O'Malley) [Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Mason] 51-49, 50.4-49.6, 54-46, 58-42, R50.7%, T54%, Safe R
102. (Michelle Hoitenga) [Wexford, W Osceola, Mecosta] 54.8-45.2, 60-40, 69-31, 68-32, R56.3%, T63.4%, Safe R
103. (Daire Rendon) [Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw] 52.8-47.2, 60-34, 58-42, 65-35, R55.9%, T66.4%, Safe R
104. (OPEN-Larry Inman) [Grand Traverse] 57-43, 53.2-46.8, 51.4-43.2, 50.4-49.6, R55.4%, T53.1%, Lean R
Grand Traverse County Republican Party chairman John Roth won the R nomination to replace the scandal-plagued Inman.  Attorney Dan O'Neil has the D nomination again after coming close in 2018.
105. (OPEN-Triston Cole) [Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda] 67-33, 63-37, 70-30, 65-35, R58.5%, T63.8%, Safe R
Otsego County Commissioner Ken Borton won the R nomination.
106. (Sue Allor) [E Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco] 52.2-45.3, 55-45, 61-35, 61-39, R53.6%, T63.2%, Safe R
107. (OPEN-Lee Chatfield) [Emmet, Mackinac, Chippewa, N Cheboygan] 58-42, 61-39, 67-33, 59-41, R55.5%, T58.9%, Safe R
Solidly conservative documentary producer John Damoose easily won the R nomination in a field of seven candidates.
108. (Beau LaFave) [Delta, Menominee, Dickinson] 54.6-45.4, 60-40, 52.7-47.3, 62-38, R54.6%, T62.2%, Safe R
109. (Sara Cambensy) [Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, Luce] 42-58, 34-66, 34-62, 42-58, R45.4%, T48.7%, Safe D
110. (Gregory Markkanen) [W Upper Peninsula] 48.4-51.6, 39-61, 39-61, 50.8-49.2, R51.6%, T56.5%, Lean R
Chemical engineer Janet Metsa won the D nomination.

Ratings:
Safe D: 45
Lean D: 5 (20, 25, 48, 62, 96)
Tossup: 5 (19, 38, 39, 61, 71)
Lean R: 6 (45, 91, 98, 99, 104, 110)
Safe R: 49

1 comment:

Conservative First said...

The latest fundraising reports came out yesterday, giving a clearer picture on the state of the races. D candidates raised more in most competitive districts. Many of them were flooded with contributions from out of state. Five D challengers got more then 10000 (!) individual contributions. Breen in 38 got 22633, Pulver in 39 got 19322, Anness in 45 got 22845, Morse in 61 got 17797, and O'Neil in 104 got 10032. Which national group is organizing this?
Thankfully, the HRCC is spending big in key districts. They are spending in districts 19, 38, 39, 45, 48, 61, 71, 96, 98, 104. They are not spending in districts 20, 25, 41, 62 (likely to stay D) and 91, 99, 110 (likely to stay R).
I have moved 39 to tossup, 41 to safe D, and 96 to lean D based on the latest reports.