Sunday, September 08, 2019

2020 Michigan Election Preview

This post was last updated September 10, 2019.

Michigan's presidential electors, congressional seats, and the entire state house will be up for election November 2020.

President: Tossup
Michigan's presidential primary is on March 10.  President Trump faces several challengers who are unlikely to make a big impact.  Democrats have a crowded primary field led by Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.  After President Trump's narrow victory in Michigan in 2016, the state is sure to be a battleground in 2020.

US Senate: Lean democrat
Democrat Senator Gary Peters is seeking reelection.  He won 55-41 in 2014 against Terri Lynn Land, who ran a weak campaign.  He has mediocre approval ratings, and is the least-known US senator.

Businessman John James, a black veteran, is running for the R nomination.  He was the R nominee against Debbie Stabenow in 2018, losing a relatively narrow 46.3-51.7 margin in a bad years for Republicans.

Michigan Supreme Court Safe democrat / Tossup
Republicans currently hold a 4-3 majority on the court, but moderate Republicans Elizabeth Clement and David Viviano holding the balance of power.  There are two full-term seats up for election on the Michigan Supreme Court. They are those of D Chief Justice Bridget Mary McCormack and conservative Stephen Markman, who is age-limited.  McCormack is likely safe, while the open seat will be hotly contested.

Other Statewide Offices
Two seats on the state Board of Education and boards of trustees of U of M, MSU, and WSU will be up for election. All eight seats up are held by democrats. Democrats have swept these elections in 2006, 2008, 2012, and 2018, while Republicans swept in 2010.  The candidates are
State Board of Education:
Republicans:
Democrats:
UM Board of Regents:
Republicans:
Democrats:
MSU Board of Trustees:
Republicans:
Democrats:
WSU Board of Governors:
Republicans:
Democrats:

Ballot Propositions
There may be several initiatives on the ballot.

Michigan Congressional Seats
Republicans won an 8-7 majority in Michigan's congressional delegation in 2018, after losing up the 8th and 11th districts.  Republicans may try to reclaim both districts, while Ds try to win the 3rd district of Republican turned independent Justin Amash.  The 10th district of R Paul Mitchell is open.  The post below examines these races in detail.

2020 Michigan Congressional Races

Michigan House
All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives are up for election. Republicans won a 58-52 majority in 2018.  There will be 22 open seats due to term limits and two more due to candidates running for other offices.  Both parties have potential targets to pickup.

60th District (Kalamazoo City) Safe democrat
Democrat state rep Jon Hoadley was first elected in 2014.  He is term-limited and running for Congress.  D county commissioners Stephanie Moore, Tracy Hall, and Julie Rogers are running for the seat.
61st District (Portage, Oshtemo) Tossup
Republican state rep Brandt Iden, first elected in 2014, is term-limited.  Bronwyn Haltom, a Trump campaign aide, is the choice of the R establishment.  D county commissioner Meredith Place of Portage, who was elected in 2018, is running.
63rd District (E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun) Safe Republican
R state rep Matt Hall defeated moderate David Maturen in the 2018 R primary.
66th District (Van Buren, Cooper) Safe Republican
R state rep Beth Griffin, a former county commissioner, was first elected in 2016.

Kalamazoo County Commission
All 11 seats on the Kalamazoo County Commission will be up for election. Ds won an 8-3 majority, and picked up one more seat due to a resignation. Republicans may target districts 6, 9, 10, and 11 for pickups.

2020 Kalamazoo County Commission Races

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