Wednesday, September 04, 2019

2020 Michigan Congressional Races

This post was last updated on December 8, 2019.

Michigan will see several interesting congressional races in 2020, with one open seat so far.  Michigan has 14 congressional seats.



There are several articles that analyze the general political leanings of the districts.
Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Passed
Republican Michigander Congressional District Profiles (Sidebar at right)

District 1 (Upper Peninsula, Northern Lower Peninsula) Safe Republican.
CD12: 48.1-47.6 CD14: 52-45 CD16: 55-40 CD 18: 56-44 McCain: 48.5 Romney: 53.5 Trump 57.9
Following the retirement of Dan Benishek, conservative retired general Jack Bergman defeated moderate state senator Tom Casperson and former senator Jason Allen 39-32-28 in the 2016 R primary. He defeated Lon Johnson in 2016 and Matt Morgan in 2018.  Bergman has pledged to seek only one more term.

District 2 (Ottowa, Muskegon) Safe Republican.
CD12: 61-34 CD14: 64-33 CD16: 63-33 CD 18: 55-43 McCain: 50.4 Romney: 56 Trump 55.8
Republican former state rep. Bill Huizinga won a close primary in 2010 to replace Pete Hoekstra, and was easily reelected since then. He has generally voted a fairly conservative line. This was the most Republican district in Michigan, but has been supplanted by more Trump-friendly areas.

District 3 (Kent, Calhoun) Lean Republican.
CD12: 52.6-44.1 CD14: 58-39 CD16: 59-37 CD 18: 54-43 McCain: 48.6 Romney: 53.1 Trump 51.6
Republican state rep. Justin Amash was elected in 2010. After years of voting as contrarian libertarian, he bolted the party, becoming an independent in 2019.  He had already attracted several primary challengers.  The announced R candidates are state rep. Lynn Afendoulis (18-P) of Grand Rapids Township, retail heir Peter Meijer, Trump-friendly businessman Joel Langlois, and anti-establishment activist Tom Norton.  State rep. Jim Lower (16-P) of Greenville announced a challenge to Amash, but later dropped out and announced retirement.  Meijer and Langlois will be able to self-fund.  Amash is expected to run as an independent, possibly splitting the conservative vote and allowing democrats a chance to win.  D candidates include attorney Nick Colvin, and attorney Hillary Scholten, who is the establishment favorite.

District 4 (central Michigan) Safe Republican.
CD12: 63-34 CD14: 56-39 CD16: 62-32 CD 18: 63-37 McCain: 48.6 Romney: 53.4 Trump 59.5
Republican state senator John Moolenaar of Midland succeeded Dave Camp in 2014.  He has won easily since then in a district has a swung heavily to Trump.

District 5 (Genesee, Saginaw, Bay) Safe democrat.
CD12: 31-65 CD14: 31-67 CD16: 35-61 CD 18: 36-60 McCain: 35.4 Romney: 38.4 Trump 45.5
Former Genesee Treasurer Dan Kildee succeeded his uncle Dale Kildee in 2012.

District 6 (SW Michigan) Lean Republican.
CD12: 55-43 CD14: 56-40 CD16: 59-36 CD 18: 50-46 McCain: 45 Romney: 50 Trump 51.3
Moderate Republican Fred Upton has won by wide margins since defeating conservative Mark Siljander in 1986.  But in 2018, doctor Matt Longjohn held Upton to a 4-point margin.  Progressive D state rep Jon Hoadley (14-20) of Kalamazoo is running.

District 7 (south-central Michigan) Safe Republican.
CD12: 53-43 CD14: 53-41 CD16: 55-40 CD 18: 54-46 McCain: 47.4 Romney: 50.9 Trump 55.7
Republican Tim Walberg defeated liberal democrat Mark Schauer in a hard-fought race in 2010. This followed Schauer's defeat of Walberg in 2008, Walberg's defeat of RINO Joe Schwarz in 2006, and Schwarz's winning a divided Republican primary to replace Nick Smith in 2004. Walberg defeated D state rep (12-16) Gretchen Driskell in 2016 and 2018. She is running again in 2020.

District 8 (Ingham, Livingston, N Oakland) Lean democrat.
CD12: 59-37 CD14: 55-42 CD16: 56-39 CD 18: 47-51 McCain: 46.4 Romney: 51.1 Trump 50.6
R congressman Mike Bishop, who succeeded Mike Rogers in 2014, lost to former DOD official Elissa Slotkin in the 2018 wave.  State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder and businessman Mike Detmer are running for the R nomination.

District 9 (S Macomb, Royal Oak, Bloomfield) Safe democrat.
CD12: 34-62 CD14: 36-60 CD16: 37-58 CD 18: 37-60 McCain: 40.4 Romney: 41.8 Trump 43.7
Democrat Sander Levin, who has represented this district since 1982, retired in 2018.  His son Andy Levin defeated progressive state rep Ellen Lipton (08-14) and Martin Brook for the D nomination.

District 10 (N Macomb, the Thumb) Safe Republican.
CD12: 69-30 CD14: 69-29 CD16: 63-32 CD 18: 60-35 McCain: 50 Romney: 55.2 Trump 63.8
Following Candice Miller's retirement, self-funding businessman Paul Mitchell won the R primary 36-28-16.  Mitchell previously lost the Republican primary in district 4 in 2014 and led the fight to defeat proposal 1, a large tax increase.  He is retiring in 2018, citing frustration with Congress.  State Rep Shane Hernandez, one of the most conservative members of the legislature, is running, and has received endorsements from many legislative colleagues.  Retired Air Force Gen. Doug Slocum is also running.

District 11 (NW Wayne, SW Oakland, Troy) Lean democrat.
CD12: 50.8-44.4 CD14: 56-41 CD16: 53-40 CD 18: 45-52 McCain: 48.4 Romney: 52.2 Trump 49.7
Establishment Republican businessman David Trott retired retirement after two terms.  Pro-Trump businesswoman Lena Epstein defeated several other candidates in the primary.  Businesswoman Haley Stevens defeated State rep Tim Greimel (12-18) of Auburn Hills, Suneel Gupta, Fayrouz Saad, and Nancy Skinner for the D nomination.  Stevens won this district, which swung heavily against Trump.  GOP official Whitney Williams is running.  As this district is likely to be chopped up in redistricting, the best candidates may avoid this race.

District 12 (Downriver, Ann Arbor) Safe democrat.
CD12: 29-68 CD14: 31-65 CD16: 29-64 CD 18: 29-68 McCain: 31.2 Romney: 32.7 Trump 34.5
In 2014, democrat Debbie Dingell easily replaced her husband John Dingell in Congress after his 58 years (!) in office.

District 13 (W Detroit, Westland) Safe democrat.
CD12: 14-82 CD14: 16-80 CD16: 16-77 CD 18: 0-84 McCain: 14 Romney: 14 Trump 18
In November 2017, congressman John Conyers, who represented this district since 1964, announced his resignation in a sexual harassment scandal.  Rep Rashida Tlaib (08-14), a Muslim who lost a state senate race in 2014, defeated Detroit council president Brenda Jones, Westland Mayor William Wild, the only suburban candidate, state sen Coleman Young (10-18), state senator Ian Conyers (16-18), and rep Shanelle Jackson (06-12) for the D nomination.  Without Jackson and Young on the ballot, however, Jones won the primary for a special election held on the same day.  Tlaib has made national news due to her anti-Semitic remarks and attacks on President Trump.  She may be vulnerable to a primary challenge from a black Detroit democrat.

District 14 (E Detroit, Southfield, Farmington, Pontiac) Safe democrat.
CD12: 16-82 CD14: 20-78 CD16: 19-79 CD 18: 17-81 McCain: 18 Romney: 18 Trump 18
In 2014, Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence succeeded Gary Peters, who was elected to the US Senate.

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