Wednesday, September 04, 2019

2020 Michigan Congressional Races

This post was last updated on May 29, 2020.

Michigan will see several interesting congressional races in 2020, with one open seat so far.  Michigan has 14 congressional seats.



There are several articles that analyze the general political leanings of the districts.
Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Passed
Republican Michigander Congressional District Profiles (Sidebar at right)

District 1 (Upper Peninsula, Northern Lower Peninsula) Safe Republican.
CD12: 48.1-47.6 CD14: 52-45 CD16: 55-40 CD 18: 56-44 McCain: 48.5 Romney: 53.5 Trump 57.9
Following the retirement of Dan Benishek, conservative retired general Jack Bergman defeated moderate state senator Tom Casperson and former senator Jason Allen 39-32-28 in the 2016 R primary. He defeated Lon Johnson in 2016 and Matt Morgan in 2018.  Bergman has pledged to seek only one more term. Dana Ferguson and Linda O'Dell are seeking the D nomination.

District 2 (Ottowa, Muskegon) Safe Republican.
CD12: 61-34 CD14: 64-33 CD16: 63-33 CD 18: 55-43 McCain: 50.4 Romney: 56 Trump 55.8
Republican former state rep. Bill Huizinga won a close primary in 2010 to replace Pete Hoekstra, and was easily reelected since then. He has generally voted a fairly conservative line. This was the most Republican district in Michigan, but has been supplanted by more Trump-friendly areas.  Bryan Berghoef will be the D nominee.

District 3 (Kent, Calhoun) Lean Republican.
CD12: 52.6-44.1 CD14: 58-39 CD16: 59-37 CD 18: 54-43 McCain: 48.6 Romney: 53.1 Trump 51.6
Republican state rep. Justin Amash was elected in 2010. After years of voting as contrarian libertarian, he bolted the party, becoming an independent in 2019.  He became a Libertarian party member in 2020, and considered running for president, but declined.  Amash had previously attracted several primary challengers.  The R candidates are state rep. Lynn Afendoulis (18-P) of Grand Rapids Township, retail heir Peter Meijer, village trustee Joe Farrington, lawyer Emily Rafi, and anti-establishment former village trustee Tom Norton.  State rep. Jim Lower (16-P) and businessman Joel Langlois announced campaigns, but later dropped out.  Meijer and Afendoulis have fundraised the best so far.  The D nominee will be attorney Hillary Scholten.

District 4 (central Michigan) Safe Republican.
CD12: 63-34 CD14: 56-39 CD16: 62-32 CD 18: 63-37 McCain: 48.6 Romney: 53.4 Trump 59.5
Republican state senator John Moolenaar of Midland succeeded Dave Camp in 2014.  He has won easily since then in a district has a swung heavily to Trump.  The D candidates are Anthony Feig and Jerry Hilliard.

District 5 (Genesee, Saginaw, Bay) Safe democrat.
CD12: 31-65 CD14: 31-67 CD16: 35-61 CD 18: 36-60 McCain: 35.4 Romney: 38.4 Trump 45.5
Former Genesee Treasurer Dan Kildee succeeded his uncle Dale Kildee in 2012.  The R canddiates are former state rep. Tim Kelly and former GM worker Earl Lackie.

District 6 (SW Michigan) Lean Republican.
CD12: 55-43 CD14: 56-40 CD16: 59-36 CD 18: 50-46 McCain: 45 Romney: 50 Trump 51.3
Moderate Republican Fred Upton has won by wide margins since defeating conservative Mark Siljander in 1986.  But in 2018, doctor Matt Longjohn held Upton to a 4-point margin.  Upton is being challenged by realtor Elana Oelke.  Progressive D state rep Jon Hoadley (14-20) of Kalamazoo is the D favorite over Jen Richardson.

District 7 (south-central Michigan) Safe Republican.
CD12: 53-43 CD14: 53-41 CD16: 55-40 CD 18: 54-46 McCain: 47.4 Romney: 50.9 Trump 55.7
Republican Tim Walberg defeated liberal democrat Mark Schauer in a hard-fought race in 2010. This followed Schauer's defeat of Walberg in 2008, Walberg's defeat of RINO Joe Schwarz in 2006, and Schwarz's winning a divided Republican primary to replace Nick Smith in 2004. Walberg defeated D state rep (12-16) Gretchen Driskell in 2016 and 2018. She is running again in 2020.

District 8 (Ingham, Livingston, N Oakland) Lean democrat.
CD12: 59-37 CD14: 55-42 CD16: 56-39 CD 18: 47-51 McCain: 46.4 Romney: 51.1 Trump 50.6
R congressman Mike Bishop, who succeeded Mike Rogers in 2014, lost to former DOD official Elissa Slotkin in the 2018 wave.  Candidates for the R nomination include businessman Mike Detmer, veteran Alan Hoover, television anchor and Trump USCIS official Paul Junge, and attorney Kristina Lyke.  State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder was disqualified due to lack of signatures.

District 9 (S Macomb, Royal Oak, Bloomfield) Safe democrat.
CD12: 34-62 CD14: 36-60 CD16: 37-58 CD 18: 37-60 McCain: 40.4 Romney: 41.8 Trump 43.7
Democrat Sander Levin, who has represented this district since 1982, retired in 2018.  His son Andy Levin defeated progressive state rep Ellen Lipton (08-14) and Martin Brook for the D nomination.  The R candidates are businessman Gabi Grossbard and veteran Charles Langworthy.

District 10 (N Macomb, the Thumb) Safe Republican.
CD12: 69-30 CD14: 69-29 CD16: 63-32 CD 18: 60-35 McCain: 50 Romney: 55.2 Trump 63.8
Self-funding businessman Paul Mitchell, first elected in 2016, is retiring in 2020, citing frustration with Congress.  State Rep Shane Hernandez, one of the most conservative members of the legislature, is running, and has received endorsements from many legislative colleagues.  The other R candidates are retired Air Force Gen. Doug Slocum, and businesswoman Lisa McClain.  The D candidates are environmental activist Kimberly Bizon and nurse Kelly Noland.

District 11 (NW Wayne, SW Oakland, Troy) Lean democrat.
CD12: 50.8-44.4 CD14: 56-41 CD16: 53-40 CD 18: 45-52 McCain: 48.4 Romney: 52.2 Trump 49.7
In 2018, establishment Republican businessman David Trott retired retirement after two terms.  Pro-Trump businesswoman Lena Epstein defeated several other candidates in the primary.  Businesswoman Haley Stevens defeated State rep Tim Greimel (12-18) of Auburn Hills, Suneel Gupta, Fayrouz Saad, and Nancy Skinner for the D nomination.  Stevens won this district, which swung heavily against Trump.  The R candidates in 2020 are businessman Frank Acosta, former Congressman Kerry Bentivolio, nurse and lawyer Eric Esshaki, businesswoman Carmelita Greco, and GOP official Whitney Williams.  As this district is likely to be chopped up in redistricting, stronger candidates avoided the race.

District 12 (Downriver, Ann Arbor) Safe democrat.
CD12: 29-68 CD14: 31-65 CD16: 29-64 CD 18: 29-68 McCain: 31.2 Romney: 32.7 Trump 34.5
In 2014, democrat Debbie Dingell easily replaced her husband John Dingell in Congress after his 58 years (!) in office.  She is being challenged in the D primary by Solomon Rajput.  The R nominee will be businessman Jeff Jones.

District 13 (W Detroit, Westland) Safe democrat.
CD12: 14-82 CD14: 16-80 CD16: 16-77 CD 18: 0-84 McCain: 14 Romney: 14 Trump 18
In November 2017, congressman John Conyers, who represented this district since 1964, announced his resignation in a sexual harassment scandal.  Rep Rashida Tlaib (08-14), a Muslim who lost a state senate race in 2014, defeated Detroit council president Brenda Jones, Westland Mayor William Wild, the only suburban candidate, state sen Coleman Young (10-18), state senator Ian Conyers (16-18), and rep Shanelle Jackson (06-12) for the D nomination.  Without Jackson and Young on the ballot, however, Jones won the primary for a special election held on the same day.  Tlaib has made national news due to her anti-Semitic remarks and attacks on President Trump.  She may be vulnerable to a primary challenge from a black Detroit democrat.  Jones is challenging Tlaib in the D primary this year.  The R candidates are GOP official David Dudenhoefer and engineer Al Lemmo.

District 14 (E Detroit, Southfield, Farmington, Pontiac) Safe democrat.
CD12: 16-82 CD14: 20-78 CD16: 19-79 CD 18: 17-81 McCain: 18 Romney: 18 Trump 18
In 2014, Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence succeeded Gary Peters, who was elected to the US Senate.  She is being challenged in the D primary by Terrance Morrison.  The R candidates are attorney Daryle Houston and construction contractor Robert Patrick.

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