Saturday, October 27, 2018

2018 Michigan State House Races

Last updated October 27, 2018.

Cross-posted at The Western RightRight Michigan, and RRH Elections.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans won a 63-47 majority in 2016, the same margin as in 2014. There are 42 open seats, 25 held by Republicans and 17 held by democrats. There are 23 open due to term-limits, 18 just due to seeking another office, and 1 pure retirement.

Democrats are hoping to take control of the state house. They may benefit from anti-Trump enthusiasm.  Libertarians achieved major party status due to Gary Johnson's showing in 2016, which led to more Libertarian candidates.  The elimination of straight ticket voting may help Republicans in downballot races.

Conservatives did reasonably well in 2018 primaries.  Conservative Lee Chatfield is the presumptive next house GOP leader.

Republican Michigander has a profile of the Michigan state house focusing more on district demographics.





The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012, 2014, and 2016 state house results, 2012 Romney %, 2016 Trump % (if known), and political rating.  The complete candidate list is available here:

https://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/candlist/2018GEN_CANDLIST.html

1. (Tenisha Yancey) [Detroit] 29-71, 31-69, 32-68, R23.5%, Safe D
Yancey succeeded Brian Banks, who resigned following another felony conviction.  She faces R Mark Corcoran.
2. (OPEN-Bettie Cook Scott) [Detroit] 26-72, 33-67, 28-72, 23.8%, Safe D
Ex-Marine Joe Tate won a highly contested D primary.
3. (Wendell Byrd) [Detroit] 3-96, 3-97, 3-97, 1.6%, Safe D
4. (OPEN-Rose Robinson) [Detroit] 5-95, 5-95, 5-95, 3.4%, Safe D
Isaac Robinson, son of the incumbent, won a 14-candidate D primary, defeating several better-funded candidates.
5. (OPEN-Fred Durhal III) [Detroit] 6-94, 5-95, 7-93, 2.7%, Safe D
Radio broadcaster Cynthia Johnson won a 6-candidate D primary.
6. (OPEN-Stephanie Chang) [Detroit] 5-92, 6-94, 7-93, 5.3%, Safe D
This district has a strong claim to be the most diverse in Michigan, and has successively had black, Hispanic, Jewish, Muslim, and Chinese representatives.  Government employee Tyrone Carter won a 10-candidate primary.
7. (LaTanya Garrett) [Detroit] 2-98, 2-98, 2-98, 0.9%, Safe D
8. (Sherry Gay-Dagnogo) [Detroit] 3-97, 3-97, 4-96, 2%, Safe D
After flirting with a run for congress, Gay-Dagnogo defeated four primary challengers.
9. (OPEN-Sylvia Santana) [Detroit] 5-95, 4-96, 6-94, 3.3%, Safe D
Community organizer Karen Whitsett won the D primary.
10. (Leslie Love) [Detroit] 14-86, 18-82, 15-82, 16.4%, Safe D
11. (Jewell Jones) [Inkster, Garden City] 28-72, 30-70, 36-64, R29.3%, T34.8%, Safe D
Then 21-year-old Inkster city councilman Jewell Jones was nominated by party insiders after the 2016 primary following the sudden death of Rep. Julie Plawecki.  He defeated a strong challenge from Garden City mayor Randy Walker.
12. (OPEN-Erika Geiss) [Taylor, Romulus] 25-75, 30-70, 33-67, 39-61, R29.5%, T38.9%, Safe D
Taylor councilman Alex Garza won the D primary.
13. (Frank Liberati) [Southgate, Allen Park, Dearborn Heights] 35-65, 39-61, R40.3%, T46.7%, Safe D
14. (Cara Clemente) [Riverview, Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, Melvindale] 26-71, 30-70, 36-64, R34.9%, T44.3%, Safe D
15. (Abdullah Hammoud) [Dearborn] 25-75, 32-68, 38-62, R33.5%, T31%, Safe D
16. (OPEN-Robert Kosowski) [Westland, Wayne] 28-68, 32-68, 36-64, R33.3%, T38.7%, Safe D
Former Westland councilman Kevin Coleman won the D primary.
17. (Joe Bellino) [N Monroe, Sumpter, Huron] 39-61, 40-60, 52.2-44.3, R45.3%, T56.3%, Tossup
Republican Joseph Bellino pulled off a shocking upset against D Bill LaVoy in a district that swung heavily to Trump. Lavoy's wife Michelle is running this time.
18. (Kevin Hertel) [St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe] 34-64, 38-62, 37-63, R40.7%, T44.9%, Safe D
19. (OPEN-Laura Cox) [Livonia] 60-40, 62-38, 61-39, R52%, T51.1%, Tossup
Livonia city councilman Brian Meakin was unopposed for the R nomination.  Progressive microbiologist Laurie Pohutsky defeated a more mainstream candidate in the D primary.
20. (Jeff Noble) [Plymouth, Northville] 56-44, 60-40, 53.6-46.4, R51.8%, T45.7%, Tossup
Noble, a solid conservative, won a primary upset in 2016.  He faces D Matt Koleszar in this upscale district that swung away from Trump.
21. (Kristy Pagan) [Canton, Van Buren] 38-62, 45-55, 41-59, R43.3%, Safe D
22. (John Chirkun) [Roseville, E Warren] 30-70, 32-64, 35-60, R36.2%, Safe D
23. (Darin Camilleri) [SE Wayne] 50.5-49.5, 52.1-47.9, 49.7-50.3, R47.5%, T53.8%, Safe D
Camilleri picked up this seat in 2016 after Rs held it for three terms.  He has locked it down against Michael Frazier, who has raised little.
24. (Steve Marino) [Harrison, N Clinton, SW Macomb] 54.7-45.3, 59-39, 55-45, R47.5%, T56%, Lean R
Marino faces D Laura Winn in this district that swung toward Trump.
25. (OPEN-Henry Yanez) [E Sterling Heights, NC Warren] 48.6-51.4, 46.5-53.5, 46-54, R47.8%, T52.5%, Lean D
R Jazmine Early has raised little in this district won by Trump.  Nate Shannon is the D candidate.  Republicans seem likely to punt this Trump-won seat due to weak recruitment.
26. (Jim Ellison) [Royal Oak, Madison Heights] 36-60, 39-61, 41-59, R40.3%, T37.5%, Safe D
27. (Robert Whittenberg) [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park] 20-76, 24-76, 23-77, R24.8%, T23.3%, Safe D
28. (Patrick Green) [W Warren, Center Line] 21-79, 36-64, 34-66, R35.8%, Safe D
Green lost a shocking primary upset to Lori Stone, a rematch of the 2016 primary.  Stone raised only a small amount of money.
29. (OPEN-Tim Greimel) [Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Orchard Lake] 23-77, 26-74, 25-71, R23.9%, T26.7%, Safe D
Pontiac School Board member Brenda Carter won a 6-candidate D primary.
30. (Diana Farrington) [W Sterling Heights, Utica, SE Shelby] 53.3-46.7, 55-45, 54-46, R51.5%, T57.1%, Safe R
This district seems to be a lower priority for Ds after they went all-out in 2016.  The D candidate is John Spica.
31. (William Sowerby) [S Clinton, Fraser, Mt. Clemens] 34-62, 39-61, 39-56, R41.8%, T48.1%, Safe D
32. (Pamela Hornberger) [Chesterfield, C St. Clair] 59-41, 62-38, 64-36, R53.9%, T64.5%, Safe R
33. (Jeff Yaroch) [NE Macomb, Macomb Twp.] 62-38, 66-34, 70-30, R56.2%, T63.8%, Safe R
34. (Sheldon Neeley) [Flint] 13-87, 9-91, 11-89, R8.3%, Safe D
35. (OPEN-Jeremy Moss) [Southfield] 17-83, 17-83, 16-84, R17.6%, T15.7%, Safe D
Attorney Kyra Bolden defeated state senator Vincent Gregory and four others in the D primary.
36. (OPEN-Peter Lucido) [Shelby, Washington, Bruce] 64-36, 70-30, 72-28, R61%, T65.7%, Safe R
Shelby Township Trustee Douglas Wozniak defeated Karen Potchynok-Lund, wife of conservative former rep Pete Lund (08-14) and three others in the R primary.
37. (Kristine Greig) [Farmington] 38-62, 43-57, 36-61, R40.3%, T35.6%, Safe D
38. (Kathy Crawford) [Novi, Lyon] 59-41, 63-37, 58-42, R53.6%, T49.4%, Lean R
Crawford, one of the more moderate R members of the state house, barely defeated a challenge from the right by Chase Turner.  She faces attorney and Novi city councilmember Kelly Breen in this district that swung against Trump.
39. (OPEN-Klint Kesto) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom] 53.3-46.7, 52.3-47.7, 50.4-42.2, R51.5%, T50.4%, Lean R
Attorney and firearms instructor Ryan Berman won a very competitive R primary.  D Jennifer Suidan has been indicted for embezzling from a previous D campaign.  She has been disowned by the D party.  While that should make the race safe R, we can't entirely rule out the possibility of highly motivated low info D voters still supporting Suidan.
40. (OPEN-Michael McCready) [Bloomfield, Birmingham, E West Bloomfield] 57-41, 58-42, 53.5-46.5, R52.8%, T42.7%, Lean D
Lawyer/businessman David Wolkinson, a conservative former state GOP official, finished a close second in the 2012 primary for this seat.  He won a highly competitive primary this time.  He faces former state department employee Mari Manoogian in an upscale seat that swung heavily against Trump.
41. (OPEN-Martin Howrylak) [Troy, Clawson] 50.5-49.5, 56-44, 56-44, R51.6%, T47%, Tossup
County commissioner, former Troy councilman and David Trott staffer Doug Tietz is a mainstream conservative.  He won a highly competitive R primary and now faces D Padma Kuppa, who has a big fundraising lead.
42. (OPEN-Lana Theis) [SE Livingston] 63-33, 65-35, 64-32, R60.2%, T59.3%, Safe R
Brighton Township Trustee Ann Bollin won the R nomination unopposed (don't tell Henry VIII!).
43. (OPEN-Jim Tedder) [Waterford, Independence] 66-34, 58-42, 66-34, R54.8%, T56.8%, Safe R
Independence Township Trustee Andrea Schroder beat fellow trustee Jose Aliaga in the R primary.  Both had previously run in 2014.
44. (OPEN-Jim Runestad) [Springfield, White Lake, Highland, Milford] 63-33, 68-32, 69-31, R59.1%, T60.6%, Safe R
Businessman, Tea Party leader and Trump supporter Matt Maddock has given the local establishment fits with his frequent challenges to party officials and his narrow loss to incumbent state sen Mike Kowall in 2014.  He easily won the R primary in this highly R district.
45. (Michael Webber) [Rochester, S Oakland Twp] 56-44, 56-44, 62-38, R55.9%, T51.5%, Safe R
46. (John Reilly) [NE Oakland] 64-36, 69-31, 69-31, R60.1%, T61.1%, Safe R
47. (Henry Vaupel) [N Livingston] 64-32, 69-27, 68-27, R62.5%, T65.1%, Safe R
48. (OPEN-Pam Faris) [NE Genesee] 36-64, 38-62, 46-54, R39.8%, T51.8%, Safe D
Dr. Sheryl Kennedy won the D nomination.
49. (OPEN-Phil Phelps) [Flint Twp., Mt. Morris, SW Flint] 25-75, 26-74, 32-68, R28.8%, Safe D
John Cherry, son of the former LG of the same name, won a 6-candidate D primary.
50. (Tim Sneller) [Burton, Grand Blanc, Mundy] 39-61, 41-59, 48-52, R42.7%, T47.9%, Safe D
51. (Joe Graves) [W Genesee, Fenton, NW Oakland] 54.3-45.7, 58-42, 61-34, R53.1%, T59.1%, Safe R
Police officer Mike Mueller easily won the R primary.  He faces D David Lossing, who has fundraised competitively.
52. (Donna Lasinski) [W Washtenaw] 47-53, 44-56, 44.7-52.2, R47.5%, T42.5%, Safe D
53. (Yousef Rabhi) [Ann Arbor] 19-81, 18-82, 16-80, R19.5%, Safe D
54. (Ronnie Peterson) [Ypsilanti] 23-77, 25-75, 25-75, R23.8%, T23.1%, Safe D
55. (OPEN-Adam Zemke) [Pittsfield, NE Ann Arbor, York, Augusta] 32-65, 32-68, 31-69, R31.6%, Safe D
State senator Rebekah Warren easily won the nomination for a third and final state house term.
56. (Jason Sheppard) [S Monroe] 58-42, 50.3-47.1, 58-39, R50.6%, T59.2%, Safe R
57. (Bronna Khale) [Lenawee] 52.5-47.5, 59-41, 56-44, R49.9%, T57.2%, Safe R
58. (Eric Leutheuser) [Branch, Hillsdale] 70-30, 71-29, 75-25, R60.1%, T68.8%, Safe R
59. (Aaron Miller) [St. Joseph, E Cass] 62-38, 62-38, 67-33, R54.7%, T62%, Safe R
60. (Jon Hoadley) [Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp.] 26-74, 30-70, 25-69, R26.8%, T24%, Safe D
Hoadley is being challenged by hospital employee William Baker.
61. (Brandt Iden) [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] 58-42, 48.4-42.7, 49.4-44.7, R49.1%, T44.9%, Tossup
Iden faces WMU teacher Alberta Griffin in this suburban district that swung against Trump.  Iden has yet to get over 50%, but he will need to this time, as there is no libertarian on the ballot.
62. (OPEN-John Bizon) [Battle Creek, Albion, N Calhoun] 42-58, 51.2-48.8, 48-47.5, R43.8%, T48.4%, Lean D
D Calhoun County Commissioner Jim Haadsma, who narrowly lost to Bizon in 2016, is running again.  Dave Morgan, former Calhoun D chairman and state house candidate turned R Pennfield Township Supervisor, is the R nominee.  Haadsma almost beat an incumbent in 2016 and is a clear favorite this time.
63. (David Maturen) [E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun] 50.9-49.1, 56-44, 61-33, R54.6%, T57.5%, Safe R
Maturen, one of the most moderate Rs in the legislature, was defeated by MI GOP activist Matt Hall, an ardent Trump supporter who is more conservative.
64. (Julie Alexander) [Jackson city, W Jackson] 56-44, 61-39, 63-37, R51.2%, T54%, Safe R
65. (OPEN-Brett Roberts) [N Jackson, SE Eaton] 57-43, 57-40, 61-35, R53.4%, T59.8%, Safe R
Jackson county commissioner Sarah Lightner won the R primary.
66. (Beth Griffin) [Van Buren, Cooper, Alamo, Parchment] 59-41, 57-43, 54.3-45.7, R49.7%, T53.5%, Lean R
Griffin faces IT worker Dan Seibert.
67. (OPEN-Tom Cochran) [S Ingham] 44-56, 46-54, 45.4-54.6, R44.8%, T44.7%, Safe D
R Leon Clark faces D Ingham County commissioner Kara Hope.
68. (OPEN-Andy Schor) [Lansing] 23-77, 23-77, 22-73, R24.6%, T24.1%, Safe D
Schor vacated this seat after his election as Mayor of Lansing.  Ingham county commissioner Sarah Anthony won the D nomination for both the regular and special elections.
69. (OPEN-Sam Singh) [East Lansing, Meridian] 35-65, 32-68, 32-68, R35.9%, T28.9%, Safe D
Meridian Township Treasurer Julie Brixie won the D primary.
70. (James Lower) [Montcalm, N Gratiot] 54.5-45.5, 62-38, 63-32, R52.6%, T61.8%, Safe R
71. (OPEN-Tom Barrett) [Eaton] 46.6-53.4, 50.4-49.6, 54-43, R47.3%, T48.1%, Tossup
Eaton County commissioner Christine Barnes won the R primary.  She faces school board member Angela Witwer.
72. (Steven Johnson) [Kentwood, Gaines, NE Allegan] 59-38, 68-32, 59-41, R56.3%, T51.7%, Safe R
Johnson is a libertarian-conservative in the mold of Justin Amash who won a shocking primary upset in 2016.  He faces D Ron Draayer in this district that swung away from Trump.
73. (OPEN-Chris Afendoulis) [Grand Rapids Twp, Plainfield, NE Kent] 64-32, 68-32, 64-32, R60.9%, T55.5%, Safe R
Lynn Afendoulis, cousin of the (moderate) incumbent, easily won the R primary.
74. (OPEN-Rob Verhuelen) [Grandville, Walker, Alpine, NW Kent] 66-34, 69-31, 64-31, R60.4%, T58.8%, Safe R
Mark Huizenga, mayor of Walker, was unopposed for the R nomination.
75. (Dave LaGrand) [central Grand Rapids] 24-76, 26-74, 24-76, R23.8%, Safe D
76. (OPEN-Winnie Brinks) [peripheral Grand Rapids] 39-52, 45.6-52.1, 39-57, R44.2%, Safe D
R Amanda Brand and D Rachel Hood were unopposed for their nominations.
77. (Tommy Brann) [Wyoming, Byron] 60-36, 67-33, 66-34, R58.3%, T54.2%, Safe R
78. (OPEN-Dave Pagel) [S Berrien, SW Cass] 61-39, 67-33, 68-32, R56.1%, T58.9%, Safe R
Teacher Brad Paquette easily won the R primary.
79. (OPEN-Kim LaSata) [N Berrien] 52.8-45.7, 59-39, 59-38, R51.5%, T51.4%, Lean R
Businesswoman Pauline Wendzel easily won a 5-candidate R primary.  She faces D Joey Andrews.
80. (Mary Whiteford) [Allegan] 62-38, 63-34, 67-28, R57.6%, T59.8%, Safe R
81. (OPEN-Dan Lauwers) [NW, E St. Clair] 53.8-46.2, 65-35, 69-31, R55%, T65.6%, Safe R
Firearms instructor Gary Eisen, who finished second in 2012, barely won the 8-candidate R primary.
82. (Gary Howell) [Lapeer] 59-41, 55-45, 69-31, R55.1%, T66.5%, Safe R
83. (Shane Hernandez) [Sanilac, Port Huron] 56-44, 62-38, 63-34, R52.5%, T60.8%, Safe R
84. (OPEN-Edward Canfield) [Tuscola, Huron] 38-53, 59-41, 65-35, R55.6%, T66.6%, Safe R
Canfield is retiring after two terms for personal reasons.  Phil Green, son of conservative state senator (10-18) Mike Green, narrowly won the R primary.
85. (Ben Frederick) [Shiawassee, W Saginaw] 54-40, 53-43, 56-34, R48.9%, T57.9%, Safe R
86. (Thomas Albert) [SE Kent, N Ionia] 70-30, 66-34, 60-35, R63%, T58.6%, Safe R
87. (Julie Calley) [Barry, S Ionia] 62-35, 67-33, 67-28, R58.7%, T63.5%, Safe R
88. (OPEN-Roger Victory) [NE Ottawa] 87-0, 80-20, 75-25, R72.9%, T68.1%, Safe R
Farmer Luke Meerman easily won the R primary in perhaps the most R district in the state.
89. (Jim Lilly) [W Ottawa] 66-34, 68-32, 61-34, R61.6%, T57.6%, Safe R
90. (OPEN-Daniela Garcia) [Holland] 100-0, 78-22, 73-27, R66.5%, T60.4%, Safe R
Ottawa County Treasurer Bradley Slagh easily won the R primary.
91. (OPEN-Holly Hughes) [S, W Muskegon] 47.3-48.1, 46.5-46.3, 49.3-43.7, R48.5%, T54.1%, Tossup
Congressional staffer Greg VanWoerkom, son of state senator (02-10) Jerry VanWoerkom easily won the R primary.  He faces Whitehall city council member Tanya Cabala in a district that has frequently flipped between parties.
92. (Terry Sabo) [Muskegon city] 27-73, 33-67, 32-68, R31.3%, T36.3%, Safe D
93. (OPEN-Tom Leonard) [S Gratiot, Clinton] 57-43, 56-35, 62-33, R52.9%, T55.1%, Safe R
Assistant AG Graham Filler won the R primary.
94. (OPEN-Tim Kelly) [Saginaw Twp, E Saginaw] 56-44, 62-38, 65-35, R55.7%, T57.7%, Safe R
Funeral home owner Rodney Wakeman won a close R primary.
95. (Vanessa Guerra) [Saginaw city] 22-78, 24-76, 26-74, R24.8%, T29.8%, Safe D
96. (Brian Elder) [Bay] 31-69, 32-68, 42-58, R45.3%, T51.5%, Safe D
97. (Jason Wentworth) [Arenac, Gladwin, Clare, E Osceola] 62-38, 63-37, 65-35, R53.2%, T65.1%, Safe R
98. (OPEN-Gary Glenn) [C Midland, N Bay] 59-41, 55-45, 60-40, R56%, T56%, Lean R
Annette Glenn, wife of the incumbent, easily won the R primary.  She faces D activist Sarah Schulz.  The district should be safe, but an electric monopoly is spending big money attacking Glenn, as both Glenns are supporters of electric choice.
99. (Roger Hauck) [Isabella, W Midland] 57-43, 51.5-48.5, 54.6-45.4, R48.1%, T52.8%, Tossup
Hauck faces D attorney Kristen Brown.  This district, which contains Central Michigan University, is often competitive, but has yet to flip.
100. (Scott VanSingel) [Newaygo, Oceana, Lake] 62-38, 63-37, 67-33, R55.5%, T64.2%, Safe R
101. (OPEN-Curt VanderWall) [Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Mason] 51-49, 50.4-49.6, 54-46, R50.7%, T54%, Tossup
Radio host Jack O'Malley easily won the R primary.  He faces nurse Kathy Wiejaczka in this perpetually close district.
102. (Michelle Hoitenga) [Wexford, W Osceola, Mecosta] 54.8-45.2, 60-40, 69-31, R56.3%, T63.4%, Safe R
103. (Daire Rendon) [Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw] 52.8-47.2, 60-34, 58-42, R55.9%, T66.4%, Safe R
104. (Larry Inman) [Grand Traverse] 57-43, 53.2-46.8, 51.4-43.2, R55.4%, T53.1%, Lean R
Inman faces Dan O'Neil, who has a big fundraising lead.  This district has seen an influx of wealthy retirees.
105. (Triston Cole) [Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda] 67-33, 63-37, 70-30, R58.5%, T63.8%, Safe R
106. (Sue Allor) [E Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco] 52.2-45.3, 55-45, 61-35, R53.6%, T63.2%, Safe R
107. (Lee Chatfield) [Emmet, Mackinac, Chippewa, N Cheboygan] 58-42, 61-39, 67-33, R55.5%, T58.9%, Safe R
Chatfield is the presumptive choice to be Republican leader next term.  He faces farmer Joanne Galloway.
108. (Beau LaFave) [Delta, Menominee, Dickinson] 54.6-45.4, 60-40, 52.7-47.3, R54.6%, T62.2%, Lean R
LaFave faces D Bob Romps in a district that swung heavily to Trump.
109. (Sara Cambensy) [Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, Luce] 42-58, 34-66, 34-62, R45.4%, T48.7%, Safe D
Cambensey, who lost a primary challenge to John Kivela in 2016, won a special election to replace Kivela after his suicide.
110. (OPEN-Scott Dianda) [W Upper Peninsula] 48.4-51.6, 39-61, 39-61, R51.6%, T56.5%, Lean D
Gregory Markkanen won an upset victory in the primary but has bad fundraising.  The D candidate is Ken Summers.  Republicans seem likely to punt this Trump-won seat due to weak recruitment.

Ratings:
Safe D: 45
Lean D: 4 (25, 40, 62, 110)
Tossup: 9 (17, 19, 20, 41, 61, 71, 91, 99, 101)
Lean R: 8 (24, 38, 39, 66, 79, 98, 104, 108)
Safe R: 44

1 comment:

Jorge Frew said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.