Has Dr. Shiva Proven Michigan Voter Fraud?

A recent youtube video by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai claims that precinct-level data in Michigan reveals voter fraud.  Dr. Shiva has a Ph.D. in biological engineering from MIT.  He has twice run for senate in Massachusetts as an independent, once after losing the Republican primary.  He also has some "interesting" views on other topics, as detailed on his Wikipedia page.

   

My favorite part of the video is when Dr. Shiva says that Michigan has "around 86 counties".  Why not just say 83, the actual number?

Dr. Shiva analyzed data from the four largest counties in Michigan (Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, and Kent).  He made scatterplots of the precinct data for each county, comparing the straight ticket percentage for Republicans to the difference between Trump percentage and R straight ticket percentage.

On the Oakland County plot, he drew a horizontal line segment, followed by a downward sloping line.  While this seems to fit the Oakland data, it doesn't fit the Kent or Macomb data any better than just a regression line.  The plotted lines slope downward.  He claimed that this is proof of votes being taken away from Trump.

Note that the three counties Dr. Shiva accuses of fraud use three different voting vendors.  His video isn't focused on Dominion Voting Systems--his theory would implicate all three vendors.

Matt Parker, a math popularizer, responded to Dr. Shiva.

He points out a serious mathematical error.  Dr. Shiva subtracts two percentages that don't come from the same population!  This results in nonsensical data.  As Parker points out, this subtraction isn't really necessary to make the point Dr. Shiva wants to make.  You can just find a correlation between R   straight party percentage and Trump percentage.  I did this for Kalamazoo County.

The correlation is quite strong, as we would expect.  Dr. Shiva is asserting that the proportions of Republican straight ticket voters and Trump voters among non-straight ticket voters should be about the same.  That is, the slope of the regression line should be (approximately) 1.  However, we find that the slope is actually less than 1.  Dr. Shiva claims that this is evidence of voter fraud--that an algorithm in the vote counting machine has flipped votes from Trump to Biden (while presumably not flipping straight ticket votes).  But is this assumption correct?

Parker points out that this assumption can be checked by plotting straight ticket D votes against Biden votes.  If Trump votes were flipped to Biden, those votes should show up in this plot, right?  But the slope of the regression line for this plot is also less than 1.

This disproves the vote-flipping theory.  But what is causing the slopes of both these plots to be less than 1?  Parker didn't try to answer this, but there is a reasonable explanation.  When a precinct leans heavily to one party, there will be more people who defect to the minority party than the reverse because there are more people in the majority party to defect.

Consider an example.  Say a precinct has 100 voters, 80 typically vote R and 20 typically vote D.  Say half of the voters of each party vote straight ticket, 40 R and 10 D.  Then the R percentage of straight ticket votes is 40/(40+10) = 80%.  Now say 10% of each party's non-straight ticket voters defect to the other party's candidate.  That would be 8 R and 2 D voters.  Then the non-straight ticket voters break down 40-8+2 = 34 R and 10-2+8 = 16 D.  The R percentage of non-straight ticket voters is 34/50 = 68% R, less than the 80% R straight ticket voters.

Feel free to construct your own example.  As long as the proportion defecting from each party is the same, you will find the same effect.  Thus there is a reasonable explanation for the fact that non-straight ticket votes are less partisan than straight ticket votes.  Dr. Shiva is mistaken.

How Trump Lost Michigan

Four years ago, I wrote a long analysis of How Trump won Michigan.  The key points of that analysis are

• Trump did much better than other republicans in rural and downscale (working class/union) areas like Downriver, Macomb, suburban Genesee, and the northeastern Lower Peninsula.
• Trump did poorly in upscale (highly educated) suburbs in Oakland, Kent, and Kalamazoo counties.
• Turnout in Detroit was relatively poor, providing democrats with a relatively small absolute margin there.

Trump's margin of victory in Michigan in 2016 was 10,704 votes.  At the moment, the unofficial totals show Joe Biden with 2,804,039 votes and Trump with 2,649,852 votes.  Biden's margin over Trump is 154,187 votes.  This analysis will consider county vote totals to determine where this shift occurred, and whether there is any reason to be suspicious of the official totals.

County Margin Changes

Trump's performance by county is illustrated in the map below.

Data at the SOS website is broken down by county.  Subtracting 2016 and 2020 margins, we find the biggest (approximate) changes in margin in the following counties.

-54200 Oakland

-32500 Wayne

-30900 Kent

-23000 Washtenaw

-11300 Ingham

-10700 Kalamazoo

  -9400 Macomb

  -7300 Ottawa

  -4600 Grand Traverse

The totals are broadly consistent with the results of the last two elections.  Counties with many white leftists, particularly those featuring large universities (Washtenaw, Ingham, Kalamazoo) saw large increases in D turnout.  Upscale suburbs continued to trend away from Trump.  This is particularly the case in Dutch Reformed Christian areas (Kent, Ottawa), which voted for Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary.

Trump also improved his margin in many smaller counties.  The largest gains were about 3300 each in Monroe and St. Clair, and 3100 in Montcalm.

Local Voter Fraud?

Of course, this is taking the unofficial vote totals for granted.  Since election day, there have been many claims of fraud, and allegations that the election was stolen.  Specific allegations include that late-arriving absentee ballots were back-dated so that they could be counted, and that some poll workers encouraged voters to support Biden.  These allegations are plausible (though unproven) and deserve further investigation.

We should be careful to distinguish between voter fraud that happens a few votes at a time, and mass voter fraud (adding, deleting, or changing thousands of votes at a time).  Only the latter could have swung the election by a large enough margin to give the state to Biden.

Allegations of fraud have centered around the city of Detroit and the counting of absentee ballots at the TCF Center (formerly Cobo Center).  This is understandable, given Detroit's long history of incompetence (or worse) at running elections.  To get a handle on what happened in Detroit, consider the raw totals and percentages for GOP and D candidates for the past six elections.

Year – GOP (percent) and Dem (percent):

2000 – 15688 (5.22%), 282111 (93.88%)

2004 – 19343 (5.93%), 305258 (93.65%)

2008 –   8888 (2.65%), 325534 (96.99%)

2012 –   6018 (2.09%), 281743 (97.63%)

2016 –   7682 (3.11%), 234871 (94.95%)

2020 – 12654 (5.08%), 233908 (94.00%) 

Note that Trump got 5000 MORE votes than he got four years ago, consistent with a modest improvement with black voters nationwide.  Biden got 1000 FEWER votes than Hillary did in 2016.  The data provide no evidence to support mass voter fraud in Detroit.

How then did Biden gain 32000 votes in Wayne County versus 2016?  Trump lost ground in the upscale suburbs of western Wayne County.  For example, Trump's margin declined in the following jurisdictions.

-7500 Canton Township

-5200 Livonia

-2000 Northville Township

-1800 Plymouth Township

Similar patterns occurred elsewhere in the state.  In Kent County, Trump lost 13000 votes in Grand Rapids, and lost the suburbs of Kentwood, East Grand Rapids, Wyoming, and Grand Rapids Township.

Trump's biggest relative declines from his 2016 percentages were in West Michigan, Oakland, and Washtenaw.  Trump's biggest relative increases from his 2016 percentages were in the northern lower peninsula and Wayne County.

Dominion Voting Systems

If fraud in one or two jurisdictions cannot explain the swing to Biden, could fraud have been widely distributed across the state?  Such theories revolve around Dominion Voting Systems, a manufacturer of voting machines and vote counting machines.

On election night, something went wrong with the vote totals in Antrim County in northwest Lower Peninsula.  The reported totals showed Joe Biden handily winning the county, and many people (including me) immediately realized that this could not be correct.  The county clerk retracted the results and ordered a recount, which produced a reasonable result.  (Trump's margin declined by 233 votes compared to 2016.)

It still isn't clear what happened in Antrim County.  The clerk blamed a software error.  The Secretary of State blamed human error (i.e., the clerk).  If Dominion software produced a false result in Antrim, could it have done so elsewhere?

In theory, vote counting software could be programmed to flip a small fraction of votes from one candidate to another, so that the fraud would be difficult to detect.  Some commentators have claimed that Dominion did this.  This cannot be what happened in Antrim, as the results there were absurd, and quickly corrected.  Did Dominion flip votes in other counties?  Dominion machines are used in 65 Michigan counties, and the others are split between two other vendors.  The state of Michigan helpfully maps the vendors by county on a website.  I broke down the presidential vote totals by counties that use Dominion machines and those that don't.

In 2020, the totals in counties that use Dominion machines are

Trump 1410197, Biden 1459230 (49.1% Trump two-party)

In 2016, the totals in the same counties were

Trump 1237598, Clinton 1335566 (48.1% Trump two-party)

In 2020, the totals in counties that don't use Dominion machines are

Trump 1209676, Biden 1212807 (49.9% Trump two-party)

In 2016, the totals in the same counties were

Trump 1069867, Clinton 1056032 (50.3% Trump two-party)

Thus Trump actually improved from 2016 in counties that use Dominion machines and declined in counties that don't use Dominion machines.  The data provide no evidence to support the theory that Dominion machines flipped votes from Trump to Biden.  Indeed, some of the counties where Trump declined the most (Oakland, Macomb, Ottawa, Kalamazoo, Grand Traverse, Livingston) don't use Dominion machines.

Of course, a conspiracy theorist could double down and claim that all three vendor's machines were compromised, not just Dominion.  There is a simple way to test this theory.  Remember that Michigan doesn't have voting machines, it has vote counting machines.  There are paper ballots that can be recounted when desired, as was done in Antrim County.  As far as I know, the Trump campaign has not requested a recount in Michigan.

Comparison to US Senate Results

Another argument casting doubt on the validity of the election results concerns the results in the US Senate race.  The unofficial vote totals give Gary Peters 2,734,559 votes, and John James 2,642,221 votes, a margin of 92,338.  The distribution of votes across the state is similar to the Presidential race, but the relative differences are noteworthy.

Some observers have noticed the vote totals for Trump and James were quite close (only 7631 apart), while the vote totals for Biden and Peters were about 70000 apart.  Indeed, there were about 58000 more votes case in the presidential race than the senate race.  This has lead some to claim that 70000 ballots were cast only for Biden, and that this is proof of voter fraud.

There are several problems with this theory.

1. There is no proof that dropoff is due to votes only for Biden.  Voters could have skipped the senate race but voted in other races downballot.

2. There is nothing unusual about dropoff.  In 2012 (the last year before 2020 with both presidential and senate elections), there were 78043 more votes for president than for senate.  In 2008, there was a dropoff of 153156 between these races.  There is typically more dropoff further downballot, as some uninformed voters choose not to vote in races when they are unfamiliar with the candidates.

3. Someone committing mass fraud would presumably want Ds to win downballot, and they could just as easily vote straight ticket D to do this.

4. There was essentially no dropoff in Detroit (note that 77% of votes in Detroit were straight ticket D).

5. Trump and James did better in different regions of the state.  The map below uses Orange for Trump performing better than James, and blue for James performing better.

Trump performed better in downscale areas, while James performed better in traditional GOP areas in West Michigan.  Note that James won Kent, Muskegon, and Leelanau Counties, which Trump lost.  James got 11000 more votes than Trump in Kent County and 8700 more in Oakland, while Trump got 12000 more votes than James in Macomb County.  James did essentially the same as Trump in Detroit, gaining only 80 more votes there.

Conclusion

There is nothing in the data to indicate mass voter fraud in Michigan of the size that would have to exist to change the result of the Presidential election.  More than 150,000 fraudulent votes should be noticeable in the raw election results, but they are not there.  If there is any doubt about the reliability of the vote counting machines, a manual recount would resolve it.

Absentee Ballot Backdating Fraud in Detroit

From investigative reporter John Solomon, formerly of the The Washington Post, The Washington Times, and The Hill:

Detroit city worker blows whistle, claims ballots were ordered backdated, FBI probing

The FBI is investigating allegations of election fraud in Detroit after a city worker stepped forward and claimed election workers were asked to backdate ballots that had come in after the election deadline had passed, multiple officials said.

A senior law enforcement official in Washington confirmed that an investigation was opened after the whistleblower's concerns were forwarded from the Michigan Republican Party. "The FBI is investigating," the official said.

GOP officials in Michigan said the whistleblower was identified and assisted by Phill Kline, the head of the Thomas More Society's Amistad Project, which has been litigating voting disputes and irregularities across the country for months.

I doubt this would change enough votes to change the outcome of the election, but regardless this needs to be investigated, and any fraud prosecuted.

Michigan 2020 Election Results

President:  50.6-47.9 Biden over Trump.  The raw margin was about 146,000.  Close, but not quite enough.

Senate: 49.8-48.3 for Peters over John James.  The raw margin was about 84,000.  That's probably too large a margin to be due to voter fraud, but any credible allegations of fraud should be investigated.

Proposal 1 (natural resources): 84% yes.

Proposal 2 (privacy): 89% yes.  A rare moment of bipartisan agreement.

Supreme Court:  32% McCormick, 20% Welch for the two winning Ds.  17% Kelly, 14% Swartzle for the two Rs.  Ds take a 4-3 majority on the court.  This will have bad consequences.

State Board of Education:  Ds took both slots, with a 45K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
University of Michigan:  D Mark Bernstein was reelected.  R Sarah Hubbard snagged the second slot with a 12K vote margin over the other D.
Michigan State:  R Pat O'Keefe took the top slot, and D Rema Vassar took second.  D incumbent Brian Mosallam took third, and R Tonya Schuitmaker was fourth.
Wayne State:  R former SOS Terri Land was first, and D Sherley Stancato was second.

Congress:

1. 61-37 for Bergman.  If Bergman keeps his term limits pledge, this seat will be open in 2022.
2. 59-38 for Huizinga.
3. 53-47 for Meijer.  Kent has trended in the wrong direction.  Hopefully Meijer locks it down.
4. 65-32 for Moolenaar.
5. 42-54 for Kildee.  Closer due to Trump's appeal to blue collar workers.
6. 56-40 Upton.  A better result against the far-left Hoadley.  If Upton is thinking about retirement, 2022 would be a good year to do so.
7. 59-41 Walberg. This is Walberg's best margin yet in what was once a swing district.
8. 47.3-50.9 for Slotkin.  A stronger candidate could have won.  This district will likely change significantly in redistricting.
9. 38-58 for Andy Levin.
10. 66-34 for McClain.
11. 47.8-50.2 for Stevens.  Esshaki did well under the circumstances.  This district probably gets chopped up in redistricting.
12. 31-66 for Debbie Dingell.
13. 19-78 for Tlaib.
14. 19-79 for Lawrence.

State house.  Republicans lost two seats and picked up two, for no net change.  The majority is now 58-52.  Conservative Jason Wentworth will be the new speaker.

3-9. Rs got 2-7% in the all-Detroit districts.
13. 42-58 for Tullio Liberati.  This district might be worth contesting in the future.
19. 49.8-50.2 for Pohutski (258 votes).  The same margin as in 2018.  Rs should contest this again.
20. 45-55 for Koleszar.  This upscale suburban district was lost in 2018.
23. 47.5-52.5 for Camilleri.  This district must be contested in 2022, when it will be open.
25. 47-53 for Shannon.  This could have been won with a better candidate.
31. 44-56 for Sowerby.  This could be worth more effort in the future.
38. 48.4-51.6 for Breen.  LOSS in an open suburban seat that was close in 2018.
39. 52-47 for Berman against a far-left candidate.  This was heavily targeted by Ds.
40. 42-58 for Manoogian.  This upscale suburban district swung hard in 2018 after long being safe R.
41. 45-55 for Kuppa.  Lost in 2018, but may be worth contesting again.
43. 60-40 for Schroeder.  Some pundits absurdly thought this would be close.
44. 60-40 for Maddock.
45. 52.3-47.7 for Tisdel.  Close win in a district heavily targeted by Ds.
48. 50.5-49.5 for David Martin.  PICKUP in a blue collar suburban Flint district against far-left incumbent Sheryl Kennedy.
50. 46-54 for Sneller.  Close due to Trump performing well in suburban Flint.
59. 64-36 for Carra.  Possibly the most conservative new member.
60. 25-75 for Rogers.  She previously lost the 61st in 2006 and 2008.
61. 46-54 for Morse.  LOSS in an open suburban seat that was close in 2018.
62. 48.7-51.3 for Haadsma.  Another close loss for Dave Morgan.
63. 61-36 for Matt Hall.
66. 59-41 for Beth Griffin.  The D here got some hype, but it wasn't close.
67. 46-54 for Hope.  This district is sometimes close, but never close enough.
71. 47.3-51.2 for Witwer.  This district was lost in 2018.
72. 55-45 for Steven Johnson.
73. 57-42 for Posthumus.  MIRS had a poll that showed a 1 point race.
79. 57-43 for Wendzel.  The D candidate got a lot of hype here.
91. 60-40 for VanWoerkem.  Big win in a former swing district.
96. 57-43 for Timothy Beson.  PICKUP in a blue collar Bay County against an incumbent who renounced his pro-life position.
98. 59-41 for Annette Glenn.  Much bigger margin than in 2018, when utilities spent heavily.
99. 61-37 for Hauck.
104. 51-47 for John Roth.  Better candidate than the scandal-plagued incumbent.
109. 42-57 for Cambensy.  This district may be worth targeting when open.
110. 58-41 for Markkanen.  This was a surprise pickup in 2018.

In 2022, Rs should target districts 19, 23, 25, 38, 50, 62, and 71.  Of course, there will be a new district map, so some district boundaries or numbers will change.

My ratings turned out to be pretty accurate.  Every race I had at likely or safe for a party was won by that party.  The only lean races I missed were house 48 and 96.  My state house tossups had margins of 0.4, 3.2, 5, 8, and 4.  My lean R races had margins from 4 to 24.  My lean D races had margins of 10, 6, -1, 1, and -14.  The closest margin in a race I had at safe was 5 (house 23).  My lean ratings for Congress had margins of 6, 16, 3.6.

November 2020 Judiciary News

ACB > RBG

Supreme Court:

Barrett:  Justice Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed on October 26 by a 52-48 vote.  All Rs except Susan Collins voted yes; all members of the D caucus voted no.  Barrett was sworn in by Justice Thomas the same evening.

Barrett:  Carrie Severino summarizes Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 of the Judiciary Committee hearings on Judge Barrett.

ABA:  The left-leaning American Bar Association gave Judge Barrett a rating of Well Qualified by a substantial majority, with a minority voting for a rating of qualified.

Barrett:  Both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris declined to criticize Judge Barrett during their debates.

Barrett:  Harsh Voruganti of the Vetting Room has analyzed the split opinions involving Judge Barrett, both when she was in the majority and minority.

Barrett:  Politico writes that Barrett quickly became a consensus candidate due to strong support from Mitch McConnell, Leonard Leo, and Josh Hawley.  Also notable is the Leo helped to keep Neomi Rao off Trump's Supreme Court list.

Barrett:  Leftists have demanded that Justice Barrett recuse herself from a variety of cases, especially potential election litigation.  Carrie Severino and Ed Whelan disagree, pointing out previous cases in which liberal judges did not recuse themselves.

Supreme Court:  Senator Ted Cruz has written a book on the Supreme Court: One Vote Away: How a Single Supreme Court Seat Can Change History.  He revealed that he raised concerns with President Trump about Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh.  He instead recommended Senator Mike Lee be appointed.

Supreme Court:  Joshua Wilson asks why there aren’t any evangelicals on the Supreme Court, while there are 6 Catholics.  He mentions that evangelicals are less likely to become lawyers, and less likely to attend top law schools.  One answer the article doesn’t give is that evangelicals are more interested in results than identity politics.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Feinstein:  Some leftist groups want Senator Diane Feinstein removed as ranking D on the Senate Judiciary Committee.  Some senators are unhappy with her performance in the ACB hearings, but there doesn't seem to be much support for removing her.

Texas:  Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was accused of corruption by seven aides, including First Assistant AG Jeff Mateer, who resigned in protest.  Mateer is notable due to his nomination to ED-TX in 2017.  He was not confirmed due to some controversial comments he made that came to light.

New Nominations:
TBD

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:
TBD

Confirmations:
TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Judicial winning:  Carrie Severino of the Judicial Crisis Network is writing a series highlighting Trump's conservative judicial appointees.  The series so far includes Kyle Duncan, Amul Thapar, Ken Lee, Lisa Branch, Amy Coney Barrett, Greg Katsas, Justin Walker, Kevin Newsom, Dan Bress, Eric Murphy, Daniel Collins, Patrick Bumatay, Paul Matey, and Jay Richardson.

Misconduct:  Judges accused of misconduct often retire to avoid accountability.  Case in point is Judge Truman A. Morrison III of the DC Superior Court.

1st Circuit:  Judge Juan Torruella died on October 26 at age 87.  He was the first appeals court judge from Puerto Rico.  He was appointed to D-PR by Ford in 1974 and to the 1st Circuit by Reagan in 1984.  He was generally liberal, issuing rulings supporting abortion and gay rights, and obstructing the death penalty.

SD-CA:  Chief Judge Larry Burns will take senior status on January 22, 2021, two days after the winner of the next presidential election is inaugurated.  He was appointed by W in 2003.  In 2012, he wrote a column endorsing an assault weapons ban, so he isn't that conservative.

State Supreme Courts:

Elections:  Check out my preview of state supreme court elections in 2020.

California:  Governor Gavin Newsom appointed Martin Jenkins to the California Supreme Court.  He was appointed to ND-CA by Clinton in 1997, and resigned in 2008.  Governor Schwarzenegger then appointed him to the California Court of Appeals.  He is 66.  The court now has 5 D and 2 R appointees.

Texas:  Governor Greg Abbott appointed Rebeca Huddle to the Texas Supreme Court.  Huddle, 47, is a native of El Paso who was a justice on a Houston-based appeals court.  She replaces Justice Paul Green, who retired in August.

Numbers and Trivia:

Obstruction:  Keith Whittington examines obstruction of circuit court nominees.  Both parties have engaged in this practice and President Obama was not obstructed significantly more than previous presidents.

Supreme Court:  Ilya Shapiro shows that liberal justices of the Supreme Court are more likely to vote as a block than conservative justices.

Roberts Court:  Dan McLaughlin rebuts the claim by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse that the Roberts Court decided 80 cases by a 5-4 margin, and all 80 cases were decided in favor of corporate interests.

Longevity:  Three judges originally appointed by Nixon, Gerald Bard Tjoflat, John Clifford Wallace, and Peter T. Fay, just passed 50 years of service.  They are tied for 26th on the list of longevity of service of federal judges.

Longevity:  ProPublica examines the longevity of current federal judges.  Trump appointees are somewhat younger than those of other presidents.

Courting Change:  Reuters examines the federal appeals courts, including appointing president, circuits, age, race, and sex.

Claims:  President Trump appointed Eleni Roumel as Chief Judge of the Court of Federal Claims on October 19.  Trump appointed her to the court in February 2020.  She was Deputy Counsel to VP Mike Pence 2018-2020.  She replaces Margaret Sweeney, whose term on the court of claims expired on October 24.  Sweeney was appointed to the court by W in 2005 and was named chief by Trump in 2018.

History:

Lincoln:  Kamala Harris misrepresented how President Lincoln handled a Supreme Court vacancy in an election year.  He didn't make a nomination before the election not because "the people should decide" but because the Senate was out of session.  (Also, there was a civil war.)  The seat was filled in the lame duck session after the election.

Resources:
Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room
Twitter: FedJudges Senate Cloakroom
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings
Wikipedia: Trump Judges US Appeals Courts
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia--State Supreme Court Vacancies Elections
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July August September October Elections

2020 State Supreme Court Election Preview

A majority of states have elections for state Supreme Court in November.  Here is a guide to the contested elections.  The elections in Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas seem to be the most competitive.

Ballotpedia:  2020 State Supreme Court Elections

Alaska:  Liberal Justice Susan Carney, on the court since 2016, faces a retention election.  A conservative group is campaigning for a no vote.

Arizona:  Justices Robert Brutinel, Andrew Gould, and John Lopez face a retention election.

Colorado:  Justices Melissa Hart and Carlos Samour face a retention election.

Florida:  Conservative Justice Carlos Muniz faces a retention vote.  He was appointed to the court by Governor Ron DeSantis in 2019.  There is no organized campaign against him, but several major newspapers have recommended a no vote.

Illinois:  
District 3  (North central)  Justice Thomas L. Kilbride (D) is an ally of corrupt Speaker Mike Madigan.  He faces a retention election where he must receive 60% of the vote.  If he doesn't get 60%, the other justices will choose a replacement for the next two years.
District 5 (South) Two judges of the 5th District Appellate Court are facing each other for the seat of retired Justice Lloyd A. Karmeier (R).  The candidates are Judy Cates (D) and David Overstreet (R).

Indiana:  Justice Christopher Goff, appointed in 2017, faces a retention election.

Iowa:  Justices Susan Christensen, Edward Mansfield, Christopher McDonald, Thomas Waterman face a retention election.  All are conservatives appointed by R governors.

Kansas:  Liberal Justice Eric Rosen faces a retention election.

Kentucky:  Samuel Wright III, the incumbent judge in district 7 (east) lost in a nonpartisan primary due to a graft scandal.  The runoff candidates are liberal D state rep Chris Harris and conservative Circuit Court Judge Bob Conley.

Louisiana:  
District 4 (Northeast)  Justice Marcus Clark (R) retired in June.  Judges Jay McCallum (2nd Circuit Court of Appeal) and Shannon Gremillion (3rd Circuit Court of Appeal) are running.  Both are Rs, but McCallum has support the Louisiana Association of Business & Industry (LABI), while Gremillion has been supported by trial lawyer John Carmouche.
District 7 (New Orleans) Chief Justice Bernette Johnson (D) is retiring.  The candidates to replace her are Judge Piper Griffin and 4th Circuit Court of Appeal judges Sandra Cabrina Jenkins and Terri Love.  All three are black female Ds.

Maryland:  Justices Brynja Booth, Jonathan Biran, and Mary Ellen Barbera face a retention election.

Michigan:  There are two full-term seats up for election on the Michigan Supreme Court. They are those of Chief Justice Bridget Mary McCormack (D) and conservative Stephen Markman (R), who is age-limited.  McCormack is likely safe, as she has the endorsement of the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, which usually endorses Rs.  The other D nominee is Grand Rapids attorney Elizabeth Welch.  Court of Appeals judge Brock Swartzle and assistant St. Clair County prosecutor Mary Kelly are the R nominees.  Swartzle has the stronger resume, but Michigan loves electing Irish female judges, as former justices Marilyn Kelly and Mary Beth Kelly can attest.  The second seat seems to be a tossup.

Minnesota:  Justice Paul Thissen, a former D speaker of the house, faces R Michelle MacDonald.

Mississippi:  
District 1 (Central) Justice Kenny Griffis, appointed by Governor Phil Bryant in 2019, faces Court of Appeals Judge Latrice Westbrooks, a black woman.  The candidates have been endorsed by R and D parties, respectively.
District 3 (North) Justice Josiah Coleman faces Chancery Judge Percy Lynchard.

Missouri:  Conservative Justice Patricia Breckenridge faces a retention election.

Montana:  Justice Jim Shea is unopposed for reelection.  R-leaning Justice Laurie McKinnon faces trial lawyer Mike Black, who has been endorsed by several D former justices.  McKinnon got 53% to 29% for Black in the primary.

Nebraska:  Justices Lindsey Miller-Lerman and Jeffrey Funke face retention elections.

Nevada:  R-leaning justice Mark Gibbons is retiring.  The candidates to replace him are D state rep Ozzie Fumo and Eighth Judicial District Court judge Douglas Herndon, who is supported by R groups.  Herndon got 45% in the primary to Fumo's 36%.

New Mexico:  D Justice Shannon Bacon, appointed in 2019, faces R deputy district attorney Ned Fuller.
D Justice David Thomson, appointed in 2019, faces R attorney Kerry Morris.

North Carolina:  
Seat 1:  Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) is being challenged by Justice Paul Martin Newby (R).
Seat 2:  Court of Appeals judges Lucy N. Inman (D) and Phil Berger Jr. (R) are facing off.
Seat 4:  Justice Mark A. Davis (D) faces former state senator Tamara Barringer (R).

Ohio:  Justice Judi French (R) faces liberal D former SOS Jennifer Brunner.  Justice Sharon Kennedy (R) faces Judge John O’Donnell (D).

Oklahoma:  Justices John Kane, Tom Colbert and Richard Darby face a retention election.

South Dakota:  Justice Steven Jensen, who has been on the court since 2017, faces a retention election.

Texas Supreme Court:  There are four R incumbents up for election. Ds are aggressively challenging the incumbents.
Place 1: Nathan Hecht (R) faces 201st Judicial District Judge Amy Clark Meachum (D).
Place 6: Jane Bland (R) faces attorney Kathy Cheng (D).
Place 7: Jeffrey S. Boyd (R) faces Dallas County District Court Judge Staci Williams (D).
Place 8: Brett Busby (R) faces Texas Third Court of Appeals Judge Gisela Triana (D).

Texas Court of Criminal Appeals: There are three R incumbents up for election.
Place 3: Bert Richardson (R) faces former Dallas County Criminal District Court judge Elizabeth Davis Frizell (D).
Place 4: Kevin Patrick Yeary (R) faces Dallas County Criminal District Court judge Tina Yoo Clinton (D).
Place 9: David Newell (R) faces Texas 292nd District Court judge Brandon Birmingham (D).

Utah:  Justice John A. Pearce, on the court since 2015, faces a retention election.

Washington:  Justices Charles Johnson and Debra Stephens are unopposed for reelection.  Justice Raquel Montoya-Lewis, appointed in January by Governor Jay Inslee, faces Federal Way Municipal Court Judge David Larson.  Justice Helen Whitener, appointed in April, faces former Winlock School District Superintendent Richard Serns.

Wyoming:  Justices Lynne Boomgaarden and Kari Jo Gray face retention elections.

2020 Michigan State House Races

Last updated October 15, 2020.

Cross-posted at The Western Right, Right Michigan, and RRH Elections.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans won a 63-47 majorities in 2014 and 2016, and a reduced 58-42 margin in 2018. There are 25 open seats, 12 held by Republicans and 13 held by democrats. There are 22 open due to term-limits, 1 just due to seeking another office, 1 due to death, and 1 pure retirement.

Democrats are hoping to take control of the state house. They may benefit from anti-Trump enthusiasm, particularly in suburban districts in Oakland County.

Republican Michigander has a profile of the Michigan state house focusing more on district demographics.





The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 state house results, 2012 Romney %, 2016 Trump % (if known), and political rating.  The complete candidate list and recent fundraising numbers are available here:

2020 Michigan Primary Candidate List
July 2020 Michigan State House Fundraising

October 2020 Judiciary News

RBG, RIP.

Supreme Court:

Ginsberg:  Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg died September 18 at the age of 87.  She was appointed to the DC Circuit by Carter in 1979.  She was elevated to the Supreme Court by Clinton in 1993 at age 60.  She was recommended to Clinton by Senator Orrin Hatch (!) and confirmed 96-3.  The three no votes were Jesse Helms, Don Nickles, and Bob Smith.

Ginsberg:  Despite her support for abortion, Justice Ginsberg acknowledged in 1973 that Roe v Wade was wrongly decided:

“One of the most curious things about Roe is that, behind its own verbal smokescreen, the substantive judgment on which it rests is nowhere to be found.”

Ginsberg:  Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg hired over 100 law clerks, but only one is black (Paul Watford of the 9th Circuit).  Under the theory of 'disparate impact', any racial distribution in hiring different from the surrounding population is proof of racial discrimination.  Ginsberg's hiring discredits this theory.

Barrett:  President Trump announced the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett of the 7th Circuit for the Supreme Court on September 26.  Barrett, age 48, got her JD from Notre Dame and clerked for Judge Laurence Silberman (DC Circuit) and for Justice Scalia at the Supreme Court.  She was a professor at Notre Dame for 15 years, and has been on the 7th Circuit since November 2, 2017.

Barrett:  The AP explains how Barrett rose from law professor to Supreme Court nominee with the help of Don McGahn, the Federalist Society, and the conservative movement.

Barrett:  Ed Whelan has written a series of articles on Judge Barrett's views on abortion, the Second Amendment, textualism and originalism, Title IX protections for accused students, and stare decisis.

McConnell:  Senator Mich McConnell has been accused of hypocrisy for pledging a vote on President Trump's nominee while refusing a vote on Merrick Garland in 2016.  However, McConnell clearly stated then that he was referring to blocking a nominee of the opposite party.

Hypocrisy:  In 2016, more than 350 law professors signed a letter stating that the Senate had a “constitutional duty to give President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee a prompt and fair hearing and a timely vote.”  Surely they will say the same about President Trump's nominee.

Senate:  National Review examines how Senator McConnell rounded up support in the Senate for voting on a Supreme Court nominee prior to the election.

Lagoa:  Barbara Lagoa, the reported runner-up for the nomination, has been a member of the Federalist Society since 1998.  Her rise to prominence coincides with the increasing influence of the Florida Federalist Society over judicial selections in that state.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Trump list:  President Trump released a list of 20 additions to his list of Supreme Court candidates, along with a statement of purpose.  The additions are:

Circuit Judges: Bridget Bade (9th), Kyle Duncan (5th), James Ho (5th), Gregory Katsas (DC), Barbara Lagoa (11th), Peter Phipps (3rd), Allison Jones Rushing (4th), Lawrence VanDyke (9th)
District Judges: Martha Pacold (ND-IL), Sarah Pitlyk (ED-MO)
State Supreme Court Judges: Carlos Muñiz (FL)
US Senators: Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley
DC lawyers: Paul Clement, Steven Engel, Noel Francisco, Christopher Landau, Kate Todd
State Attorney Generals: Daniel Cameron (KY)

Notable omissions include Neomi Rao (DC), Michael Park (2nd), Andy Oldham (5th), Ken Lee (9th)

Future appointments:  Harsh Voruganti of the Vetting Room lists twelve state court judges Donald Trump and Joe Biden might elevate to the Court of Appeals.  The contrast is stark.

Blue slip:  For the past four years, senate Ds have lauded the blue slip, but now that they expect a Biden victory, the far-left group Demand Justice is demanding that Senator Diane Feinstein end it.  Feinstein says she is undecided, apparently meaning that she needs to know the election results before she decides her position on blue slips.

D-NM:  New Mexico's D senators are using the blue slip to hold up district court nominees from their states as a protest of the latest Supreme Court nomination.   It appears that other D senators are doing the same.

MD-FL:  Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, a nominee to MD-FL, is only 33 years old.  She has been attacked for inexperience, and got a NQ/Q rating from the ABA.  Carrie Severino defends her experience, noting she had four clerkships, worked in the Department of Justice, private practice, and taught in law school.

New Nominations:
Supreme Court: Amy Coney Barrett--clerk for Scalia, Judge (7th Circuit)

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:
October 1 (business): Five district court nominees are likely to be approved.

Confirmations:
TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Judicial winning:  Carrie Severino of the Judicial Crisis Network is writing a series highlighting Trump's conservative judicial appointees.  The series so far includes Kyle Duncan, Amul Thapar, Ken Lee, Lisa Branch, Amy Coney Barrett, Greg Katsas, Justin Walker, Kevin Newsom, Dan Bress, Eric Murphy, Daniel Collins, Patrick Bumatay, and Paul Matey.

Trump judges:  The far-left People For the American Way released a report, Trump Judges: Even More Extreme than Reagan and Bush Judges.  Music to our ears!

DC Circuit: Carrie Severino writes an 'open letter' to new DC Circuit Judge Justin Walker, detailing the "politicization and bitter infighting" on the circuit.

4th Circuit:  Senior Judge Clyde Hamilton died in early September at age 86.  He was appointed to D-SC by Reagan in 1981 and to the 4th Circuit by HW in 1991.  He took senior status in 1999 and was active until his death.  The 4th Circuit now has only two senior judges.

5th Circuit: Former Judge Robert Manley Parker died on August 27 at age 82.  He was appointed to ED-TX by Carter in 1979 and to the 5th Circuit by Clinton in 1994.  He retired in 2002.

ED-TN:  Judge Pamela Reeves died of cancer on September 10 at age 66.  She was appointed by Obama in 2014.  ED-TN now has two vacancies out of five judgeships.

State Supreme Courts:

Florida:  The Florida Supreme Court issued a 5-0 ruling that Governor DeSantis must appoint a judge from the existing list of qualified judges submitted by the Judicial Nominating Commission in January.  They previously ruled that his appointment of Renatha Francis to the court was not allowed by the law, since she did not have ten years of legal experience by the deadline to make the appointment.  The suit was filed by state rep Geraldine Thompson, a black D who wanted one of the more liberal black applicants screened out by the Commission to be appointed.  While she initially wanted a new list drawn up, the court allowed her to amend her complaint to demand a judge from the existing list.  Governor DeSantis waited a few hours after the court's deadline of September 14 at Noon to announce his choice.

Florida:  Governor DeSantis appointed Jamie Grosshans to the Florida Supreme Court.  She is a judge of the Fifth District Court of Appeal, appointed by Rick Scott in 2018. Grosshans, age 42, is a member of the Federalist Society, Orlando Christian Legal Society, and Alliance Defending Freedom.

Kansas:  Eleven lawyers have applied for the seat on the Kansas Supreme Court vacated by retiring Justice Carol Beier.

Massachusetts:  Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court Chief Justice Ralph Gants died at age 65.  He was appointed to the court by Governor DeVal Patrick in 2009.  Another seat will open December 1 when Justice Barbara Lenk is age-limited.  When those seats are filled, all seven justices will be appointees of left-leaning Republican Governor Charlie Baker.

Numbers and Trivia:

Clerks:  John Doe has a list of judges for whom Trump's judicial nominees have clerked.  Justice Thomas leads the pack.

D-KS:  Judge Wesley Brown was the oldest judge to ever hear cases.  Brown heard cases until shortly before his death in 2012 at age 104.  He was appointed by Kennedy in 1962 and took senior status in 1979.

Asian Judges: Wikipedia has a list of Asian judges, but does not separate out federal judges.  These are Asian judges that Trump has appointed:
6th Circuit: Amul Thapar
5th Circuit: James Ho
6th Circuit: John Nalbandian
DC Circuit: Neomi Rao
2nd Circuit: Michael Park
9th Circuit: Kenneth Lee
9th Circuit: Patrick Bumatay
ND-TX: Karen Scholer
D-HI: Jill Otake
WD-PA: Nicholas Ranjan
ND-IL: Martha Pacold
SD-FL: Anuraag Singhal
ED-NY:  Diane Gujarati

There are a few more who have been nominated (corrections welcome):
CD-CA:  Steve Kim
ED-NY:  Saritha Komatireddy

History:

Supreme Court:  Dan McLaughlin shows that historical precedent supports a President and Senate of the same party filling a Supreme Court vacancy at any time, including a lame duck session.  This article led National Review's list of top stories for a week after RBG's death.

Resources:
Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room
FedJudges (Twitter)
Senate Cloakroom (Twitter)
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings
Wikipedia-Trump Judges
Wikipedia-US Appeals Courts
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia-State Supreme Court Vacancies
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July August September

Voter Fraud: Now We Have Proof

For a long time, those of us on the right have suspected that voter fraud is widespread on the left.  There have been plenty of isolated cases where fraud has been proved, but these were usually small or amateurish.  This allowed democrats to claim that voter fraud was rare and oppose measures to secure elections, branding them 'voter suppression'.

That all changed a week ago with the publication of a bombshell article in the New York Post.

Confessions of a voter fraud: I was a master at fixing mail-in ballots

A democrat operative from New Jersey, speaking anonymously, has exposed the democrats' operation.  They collect ballots from unsuspecting voters (ballot harvesting), then steam open the envelopes, and replace the ballots with copies they have filled in.  Postal employees can also collect ballots from the mail do the same thing, or just destroy them.  Nursing home employees can also "help" the elderly fill out ballots.  Homeless people can be bribed to vote their way.

The right has focused most on voter impersonation, while mail vote fraud has always been a bigger threat.  Nonetheless, impersonation is also one of their tactics.

So what can we do?  The most secure way to vote is in person.  If you can't vote in person, fill out your absentee ballot and bring it to your local clerk yourself.  You absolutely should not trust anyone you don't know (including postal employees) with your ballot.  Then make sure your friends know this as well.

September 2020 Judiciary News

Judiciary news continues to roll in.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Trump list:  As we wait for President Trump's updated Supreme Court list, John Malcolm and Zack Smith of the Heritage Foundation and Ilya Shapiro of the Cato Institute have made recommendations for who he should add.

Future appointments:  Harsh Voruganti of the Vetting Room lists thirteen federal judges Donald Trump and Joe Biden might elevate to the Court of Appeals.  The contrast is stark.

Court packing:  The democrat party included a plank in its party platform calling for
“structural court reforms” to counter what they call Trump's “unqualified, partisan judges.”  The Biden campaign signed off on the plank.  The platform does not specify what these 'reforms' would be, but it seems likely to include court packing, adding new seats that would be filled with leftists.

Legislative filibuster:  Court packing would depend on eliminating the legislative filibuster.  Support for this has been building on the left and among senate Ds.  Joe Biden has signaled openness, but has not formally endorsed the idea.  A few senate Ds say they are opposed, though it remains to be seen whether this opposition is real.

Roe v. Wade:  Senator Josh Hawley has argued that future Supreme Court nominees should be on the record saying that Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided.  Ed Whelan argues that this is a flawed test, as some liberals have acknowledged that Roe was wrongly decided and some conservative judges had not said this.  He suggests a different approach for pro-life senators.

New Nominations:
Court of Federal Claims: Zachary Somers--staffer for Senate Judiciary Committee

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:
TBD

Confirmations:
TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Judicial winning:  Carrie Severino of the Judicial Crisis Network is writing a series highlighting Trump's conservative judicial appointees.  The series so far includes Kyle Duncan, Amul Thapar, Ken Lee, Lisa Branch, Amy Coney Barrett, Greg Katsas, and Justin Walker.

9th Circuit:  Judge Jerome Farris passed away on July 23.  He was appointed by President Carter in 1979 and took senior status in 1995 on his 65th birthday.  He was the first black judge on the 9th Circuit.

DC Circuit:  Judge Stephen F. Williams passed away on August 7 due to the coronavirus.  He was appointed by President Reagan in 1986 and took senior status in 2001.  He was one of eight Reagan appointees to the DC Circuit.

D-ID:  Judge David Nye issued an injunction against an Idaho law declaring that women's sports not allow men.  Nye is a Trump appointee who was previously nominated by President Obama, but not confirmed.

D-ME:  Has Trump-appointed Judge Lance Walker betrayed conservatives?  This article tries to argue this, but most of the examples cited are not ideologically clear-cut.

State Supreme Courts:

States:  Harsh Voruganti argues that D governors appoint judges who are older and less involved in legal activism than R governors.

Florida:  The Florida Supreme Court ruled that Governor DeSantis' appointment of Renatha Francis to the court was not allowed by the law, since she did not have ten years of legal experience by the deadline to make the appointment.  The ruling was 5-0, with recently-appointed Justice John Couriel recused.  The suit was filed by state rep Geraldine Thompson, a black D who wanted one of the more liberal black applicants screened out by the Judicial Nominating Commission to be appointed.  However, the court ruled that what she wanted was illegal, and she did not request a proper remedy of appointing one of the other (non-black) candidates approved by the commission.  Thus Judge Francis can join the court in September.

South:  Billy Corriher summarizes state supreme court elections in Louisiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Texas, and North Carolina.

Numbers and Trivia:

2nd Circuit: As of September 1, Debra Ann Livingston will be the Chief Judge of the 2nd Circuit, taking over from Robert Katzmann. Katzmann was appointed by Clinton and is a D feeder judge.  Livingston was appointed by W in 2007. The Presidents who appointed chief judges of the 13 appeals courts are Clinton (4, 6, 9), W (1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, Fed), and Obama (DC).

9th Circuit:  This article analyzes the limited en banc panels of the 9th Circuit, particularly which judges are most and least likely to be selected for them.  John Doe has calculated (correctly) that there is a 24.9% chance that a limited en banc panel will have a majority of R appointed judges (ignoring senior judges).

Hispanic Judges:  Wikipedia has a list of Hispanic judges, but does not separate out federal judges.  These are Hispanic judges that Trump has appointed:
11th Circuit: Barbara Lagoa
SD-TX:  Fernando Rodriguez Jr.
SD-FL:  Roy Altman
SD-TX:  David Morales
SD-FL:  Rodolfo Ruiz
D-PR:  Raúl Arias-Marxuach
ND-GA:  Steven Grimberg
D-PR:  Silvia Carreño-Coll

There are a few more who have been nominated (corrections welcome):
CD-CA:  Fernando Aenlle-Rocha
ND-IL:  Franklin Valderrama
SD-FL:  Aileen Cannon
ED-NY:  Hector Gonzalez

History:

Supreme Court:  Dan McLaughlin shows that historical precedent supports a President and Senate of the same party filling a Supreme Court vacancy at any time, including a lame duck session.

Maryanne Trump Barry:  The President's sister, Maryanne Trump Barry, is a retired judge of the 3rd Circuit and D-NJ.  She was considered a moderate who was nominated by presidents of both parties, and is not close to her brother.

ABA:  Harsh Voruganti of the Vetting Room reviews the history of the ABA having a special role rating judicial candidates and argues (from the left) that this practice should end.

Resources:
Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room
FedJudges (Twitter)
Senate Cloakroom (Twitter)
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings
Wikipedia-Trump Judges
Wikipedia-US Appeals Courts
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia-State Supreme Court Vacancies
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July August

Lessons from the 2020 Primary Elections

What can we learn from the 2020 primary elections? This article explains what the winning candidates had in common. I wrote similar articles in 2014, 2016, and 2018.

They don't call it the establishment for nothing Establishment candidates won most state house races. They have the inside track on fundraising, endorsements, and organization.  None of the winners are outright moderates.  Most could be considered establishment conservatives.  Solid conservative winners include Chase Turner, Steve Carra, Ken Borton, and John Damoose.

Experience counts Elected experience is valuable for winning candidates. Ken Borton is a county commissioner, and establishment conservative winners like Robert Bezotte, TC Clements, and Dave Morgan are also elected officials.

Incumbency Matters All incumbent Republicans won renomination. Beating an incumbent in a primary is very hard. In recent years, the only conservative challengers who beat a Republican incumbent are Tim Walberg in 2006, Lee Chatfield in 2014, and Matt Hall in 2018. Certainly many incumbents deserve primary challenges, but conservatives have limited resources. Winning an open seat is much easier than beating an incumbent. Politicians can still be held to account when they run for other offices.  There are still some benefits to primary challenges, though, as they may encourage the incumbent to vote better for awhile and may help the challenger to win an open seat later.

If at first you don't succeed  Chase Turner almost beat an incumbent in the 2018 primary.  This time, he easily won the primary, advancing to a competitive general election.  Candidates who lost this time should look for opportunities to run again in the future.

Don't split the vote Conservatives did much better this year than in past years. HD-58 may have been lost to a less conservative candidate due to vote splitting.  Conservatives may have benefited from splits in the establishment in HD-59.

Money doesn't buy elections  Self-funding candidates have a bad electoral track record.  Sreenivas Cherukuri self-funded and lost badly in HD-38.  Shri Thanedar did win the D nomination in HD-3 with major self-funding after losing a race for governor in 2018.

Money is essential Money does not guarantee victory, but it is essential to get your message out. This is particularly true in local elections, which are often decided by name recognition. Look at how much winning conservative candidates raised.
Turner 31K
Carra 24K
Borton 50K
Damoose 70K

The candidate who raised the most money won in 6 of 12 contested primaries in open Republican seats (fewer than in past cycles), and the remaining winners still had good fundraising.  My rule of thumb is that the minimum amount needed to be a credible candidate is $30,000. Only two winners raised less than 30K this cycle, one in a race where no candidate did.  The minimum raised by a winner was 24K.

2020 Michigan Primary Election Results

2020 Michigan Primary Election Results

Congress:
3. Meijer 50 Afendoulis 26 Norton 16
5. Kelly 79
6. (R) Upton 62 Oelke 38
    (D) Hoadley 52 Richardson 48
8. Junge 35 Detmer 29 Lyke 25
10. McClain 42 Hernandez 36 Slocum 22
11. Esshaki 31 Greco 23 Bentivolio 22 Acosta 13 Williams 11
13. (D) Tlaib 66 Jones 34

State House:
2. (D) Tate 69 Harrell 31
3. (D) Thanedar 35 McKinney 20
9. (D) Whitsett 45 Ogburn 30
19. Ptashnik 52 Crider 43
20. Lacny 59 Rouch 41
25. Smith 37 Wiley 32 Early 31
32. Hornberger 64 Mikula 36
38. Turner 62 Cherukuri 23
41. Sosnoski 51 Agnello 49
47. Bezotte 54 Reckling 41
56. Clements 72 Blaine 28
58. Fink 39 Welden 26 Wiseley 18 Stockford 17
59. Carra 37 Coleman 23 Walton 18 Balog 16
60. (D) Rogers 51.5 Moore 48.5
61. Haltom 66 Graham 34
62. Morgan 72 Gregoire 20
70. Outman 57 Ross 22
71. Johnsen 51.3 Barnes 48.7
73. Posthumus 46 Inhulsen 29 Regan 25
79. Wendzel 82 Blackwell 18
81. Eisen 72 Mahaney 28
83. Beeler 36 Alexander 28 Keller 20 O'Mara 14
100. VanSingel 68 Sebolt 32
101. O'Malley 87 Cater 13
104. Roth 58 Cerone 42
105. Borton 55 Cutler 36
107. Damoose 57 Twardy 12 Fisher 11

Oakland:
D turnout was about 200000, R turnout was about 120000.
Executive. (D) Coulter 54 Meisner 46
Prosecutor. (D) McDonald 66 Cooper 34

Macomb:
D turnout was about 89000, R turnout was about 95000.
Prosecutor. (D) Chrzanowski 35 Switalski 32
Prosecutor. (R) Lucido 68 Goodman 32
If Lucido wins, his senate seat will be open.
Clerk. (R) Forlini 45 Williams 23

2020 Michigan Primary Recommendations

Every seat in the Michigan state house is up for election in 2020, and many seats are open due to term limits.  The house has been run by its more conservative wing for the past four years.  Continuing this trend will depend on conservatives winning primaries in August.  Here are my recommendations for who to support in Republican primaries.  Michigan Right to Life is abbreviated RTL.  Fundraising totals are available from Open Secrets.  Some races are hard evaluate, so additional information from readers is welcome.

Congress:

3.  Tom Norton is the most conservative candidate here, but he seems unable to raise a significant amount of money.  He didn't come close either time he ran for state representative.  Lynn Afendoulis is thoroughly establishment friendly.  Peter Meijer is a veteran and heir of the retail chain who seems to be somewhat more conservative than Afendoulis.  Joe Farrington has an eccentric platform.
5. Former state rep. Tim Kelly had a conservative record in office and is a credible candidate.
8. It will take a good candidate with good fundraising to beat incumbent democrat Elissa Slotkin.  Television anchor and Trump USCIS official Paul Junge has a decent resume and has raised by far the most money.  None of the other candidates have raised much money.  Mike Detmer is endorsed by Pat Colbeck.
10. State rep. Shane Hernandez is the clear choice here.  He was a Tea Party leader who has compiled one of the most conservative voting records in the state legislature, according to the American Conservative Union, MIRS, and RightMichigan.  He has been endorsed by conservative organizations including Gun Owners of America, Club for Growth, Americans for Prosperity, Michigan Trump Republicans, and Tea Party Express.  He has also been endorsed by many conservative legislators, including Jack Brandenberg, Leon Drolet, Pam Hornberger, and Tom Leonard, plus many more establishment-friendly colleagues.  Neither of his opponents have a conservative track record.
11. The field of candidates to take on incumbent democrat Haley Stevens is quite weak.  Nurse/lawyer Eric Esshaki and businesswoman Carmelita Greco have raised the most money.  Whitney Williams is endorsed by former state rep. Jeff Noble.  Former Congressman Kerry Bentivolio had a conservative voting record, but was ineffective in Congress and is a weak candidate.

State House:

19. Penny Crider was district director for senator Pat Colbeck.  Martha Ptashnik has support from establishment groups.
20. Marine veteran John Lacny has the RTL endorsement.
21. Businesswoman Laurel Hess has the RTL endorsement.
25. Jazmine Early and Adam Wiley both seem to be fairly conservative.
38. Activist Chase Turner almost won a primary against an incumbent in 2018.  He is endorsed by RTL and Pat Colbeck.
41. Firefighter Evan Agnello has the RTL endorsement.
47. Livingston GOP chair Meghan Reckling worked for conservative Senator Lana Theis, who endorsed her. Wes Nakagiri and Tom Leonard have also endorsed her.
48. County commissioner David Martin is a credible candidate who has the RTL endorsement.
56. Bedford Township trustee TC Clements seems to be the only credible candidate, as his opponent is 19.  He has the RTL endorsement.
58. Prosecutor and realtor Daren Wiseley has a solidly conservative platform.
59. Steve Carra is a legislative staffer for solid conservative state representative Steve Johnson.  He has a true commitment to conservative values.
61. Trump campaign aide Bronwyn Haltom has establishment support and a big fundraising lead.  IT specialist Tom Graham has the NRA endorsement and a somewhat eclectic platform.
62. Pennfield Township Supervisor Dave Morgan, a former democrat, is running again after narrowly losing in 2018.  The other candidates might be fine in a safe district, but Morgan seems the best choice to flip this D-held seat.
70. Postmaster and pastor Martin Ross has the RTL endorsement.  Pat Outman, son of state rep and senator Rick Outman, is endorsed by conservative incumbent Jim Lower.
71. Former Eaton County commissioner Christine Barnes is running again.  Businesswoman Gina Johnsen has much better fundraising and is fairly conservative.
73. Businessman Robert Regan, who finished second in 2014 and 2018, is the most conservative and has some grassroots support.
79. Pauline Wendzel is an incumbent with a reasonably conservative record.
83. Teacher Tim Keller is a conservative former Tea Party leader.  He has been endorsed by the 10th district GOP and conservative leaders including Pat Colbeck, Tom McMillin and Wes Nakagiri.
100. Incumbent Scott VanSingel has a rather disappointing voting record.  Oceana County Commissioner Andrew Sebolt is solidly conservative.
101. Incumbent Jack O'Malley faces a primary from Carolyn Cater, who seems to be somewhat more conservative.
104. AFP organizer Heather Cerone seems to be more conservative than Grand Traverse County Republican Party chairman John Roth.
105. Otsego County Commissioner Ken Borton is the most conservative candidate.  Tony Cutler is a teacher who finished second in the 2014 primary.  Jimmy Schmidt is a former democrat.
107. Documentary producer John Damoose is the most conservative candidate in a large field.  He has the sole RTL endorsement.