Thursday, December 30, 2021

Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Approved

Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission has passed a new congressional district map.


The map above is from the page at RRH Elections linked below, which also has individual district maps.


Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and 538.

Michigan Congressional Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan Congressional Map-538

Here are brief district descriptions.  The partisan statistics come from Dave's Redistricting; they are averages of several statewide races.

1. 59R, 39D Upper Peninsula, northern Lower Peninsula.
2. 63R, 35D West Michigan coast, central MI
3. 45R, 53D Grand Rapids and suburbs, north Ottawa, Muskegon
4. 51R, 47D Allegan, Van Buren, most of Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, S Ottawa, N Berrien
5. 61R, 37D South-central Michigan, including the entire lower tier
6. 36R, 63D Washtenaw, plus south and west Wayne
7. 49R, 50D Central MI (Ingham, Livingston, Eaton, Clinton, Schiawassee)
8. 48R, 50D Genesee, Saginaw, Bay, Midland
9. 64R, 35D The Thumb, N Oakland, N Macomb
10. 50R, 49D S Macomb, Rochester Hills
11. 39R, 59D Central Oakland
12. 25R, 74D W Detroit, Southfield, Livonia, Dearborn, Westland
13. 25R, 74D E Detroit, Downriver, Romulus

The overall takeaway is that the map is skewed to favor Ds, though not as badly as it could have been.  Consider the districts in detail.

1. (Safe R) This district doesn't change much, it just adds a few counties for popluation.  It becomes about 1% more R.  Rep. Jack Bergman previously pledged to retire this year (after three terms), but hasn't said yet whether he will keep his pledge.  If he does, a troll (below the bridge) candidate may finally win the seat.

2. (Safe R) This combines northern parts of old 2 represented by Bill Huizenga and a lot of rural territory from old 4 represented by John Moolenaar.  It is even safer, moving about 2% more R.  Moolenaar will run here, though he lives in Midland (in new 8).

3. (Tossup) This district drops heavily R rural Kent, Barry, Ionia, and Calhoun.  It adds Kentwood (D), Wyoming (lean R), N Ottawa (R), and the city of Muskegon (D), moving about 6% left.  This is a pro-D gerrymander in the name of "partisan fairness".  Incumbent Peter Meijer faces several pro-Trump challengers due to his vote for impeachment.  Meijer can still win this district, but if he loses the primary, the district will likely go D.

4. (Safe R) This has the majority of old 6, represented by longtime moderate R Fred Upton, but also includes the south Ottawa base of Bill Huizenga.  It drops the southern tier (R) and adds S Ottawa (R) and Battle Creek area (lean D).  The partisanship hasn't changed.  Huizenga is running here, while Upton has yet to announce his plans.  A wildcard here is state rep. Steve Carra, who was endorsed by Trump due to Upton's vote for impeachment.  He has been drawn into new district 5, where Tim Walberg will run.  If Carra continues to run against Upton, he could split the anti-Upton vote and allow Upton to win, or Upton and Huizenga could split the establishment vote and allow Carra to win.

5. (Safe R) This is mostly old 7, dropping Eaton and Washtenaw, and adds heavily R areas of rural Calhoun, St. Joseph, Cass, and S Berrien.  It moves about 4.5% right.  Tim Walberg will be safe here.

6. (Safe D) This succeeds old 12, adding W Washtenaw and dropping Dearborn and part of Downriver.  It moves 2% more R.  Fortunately, the commission did not extend this district into R territory south or west of it.  The city of Dearborn has been represented by a member of the Dingell family since 1964, but Debbie Dingell will move here, since she represents the bulk of this territory.

7. (Tossup) This is a highly competitive district containing Lansing and surrounding counties.  It contains the core of old 8 (Ingham and Livingston), which was drawn to lean R but was won by Elissa Slotkin (D) in 2018.  It adds lean R areas from old 4 and 7, while losing R (but D-trending) areas in Oakland.  Slotkin, who lives in Oakland, will move here.  The R candidate is likely to be state senator Tom Barrett, whose district was carved up.

8. (Lean D) This succeeds old 5, adding the rest of Saginaw County and the city of Midland.  While the district moves about 1% right, this is basically the best configuration for Dan Kildee (D) short of adding Lansing to the district.  This is another example of gerrymandering by the commission.

9. (Safe R) This succeeds old 10, losing a bit of central Macomb and adding some of north Oakland.  The partisanship hasn't changed.  Lisa McClain won't have a problem here.

10. (Tossup) This moves 7% right compared to old 9.  It adds lean R areas of central Macomb and Rochester Hills, while losing D areas of Oakland.  Andy Levin (D) represents much of this district but will run in new 11.  Several Oakland County Rs are considering running here, including former US Senate nominee John James, 2020 MI-11 nominee Erik Esshaki, and former Rep. (14-18) Mike Bishop.  It remains to be seen whether any prominent Macomb Rs will run, and who the Ds will nominate.

11. (Safe D) This has much of old 11, along with parts of old 9 and 14.  It moved 8.5% left of old 11.  It contains the homes of Haley Stevens and Andy Levin, who will compete against each other in the D primary.

12. (Safe D) The commission decided to reduce MI from two black-majority districts to none, with both new 12 and 13 now about 46% black.  This is likely to be challenged in court.  New 12 combines parts of old 13 and 14, but it contains the Southfield base of Brenda Lawrence, who will likely run here.

13. (Safe D) New 13 combines parts of old 13 and 14, but it contains the south Detroit base of Rashida Tlaib, who will run here.  She is being challenged in the D primary by state rep. Shri Thanedar, a wealthy businessman who represents a district in north Detroit.

Overall, districts 3 and 8 are clearly gerrymandered to favor Ds, and district 2, 5, and 9 are drawn to pack Rs.  However, the line between districts 5 and 6 is good, and districts 7 and 10 are reasonably competitive districts.  Old district 2 is effectively the one eliminated, since it doesn't have a clear successor in the new map.  The lack of any black-majority districts is likely to be challenged in court.

Coverage of last decade's redistricting:

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