Wednesday, November 14, 2012

2012 Analysis: Michigan

The 2012 election was rough on the top of the ticket in Michigan.  Mitt Romney lost 44.8%-54.3%, improving significantly over John McCain's performance, but not enough to overcome the democrat lean of the state in presidential years.  He actually won 63 of 83 counties, but Obama won six of the largest seven.

Michigan Presidential Results: County Map

The results were much worse in the Senate race, where Pete Hoekstra was destroyed by Debbie Stabenow 38%-58.8%.  This race is the subject of this separate post:

2012 Analysis: Senate
Michigan Senate Results: County Map

Beyond these races, though Michigan Republicans held up pretty well, though. We held all our congressional seats, maintaining a 9-5 edge.

Michigan Congressional Results

1: Benishek 48.2%, McDowell 47.5%  This one was a lot closer than in 2010, though it was never lean democrat, as some national pundits claimed.  Redistricting saved Benishek.  He will probably have an easier time winning his third (and final?) term in 2014.
2. Huizinga 61.1% German 34.4%
3. Amash 52.7% Pestka 41.1% Libertarian 3.1%  I told you Amash was safe. Democrats ran their best possible candidate in a fairly dem year and it still wasn't close.  Amash should settle in, but he still needs to repair his relationships with Right to Life and the NRA.
4. Camp 63.1% Worth 35.5%
5. Slezak 31.4% Kildee 65%
6. Upton 54.5% O'Brien 42.7%  Upton's committee chairmanship fueled a tougher challenge from Mike O'Brien, who won most of the democrats who have padded Upton's margins in past years.  Upton has lost some of his luster, but this seat is still his as long as he wants it.
7. Walberg 53.3% Haskell 43%  Walberg will never win huge margins, but he is finally settling into this seat.
8. Rogers 58.6% Enderle 37.3%
9. Volaric 34% Levin 61.9%
10. Miller 68.7% Stadler 29.8%  Macomb loves them some Candi.  Run for Senate, please?
11. Bentivolio 50.8% Taj 44.4%  One of the strangest house campaigns ended with Tea Party candidate Bentivolio holding this seat against Muslim socialist Syed Taj.  Bentivolio will have to do a good job, or risk defeat by a primary challenger who is not a write-in.
12. Kallgren 29% Dingell 67.9%
13. Sawicki 13.6% Conyers 82.8%
14. Hauler 15.6% Peters 82.2%

Republicans were wiped out in the education board races.  Incumbent MSU trustee Melanie Foster came the closest.  Foster and one of the State Board of Eduation candidates could have won if they had received the votes that went to the Libertarian and Constitution party candidates.

Republicans won a big victory in holding their Michigan Supreme Court seats.  Steven Markman (R) was reelected to his final term with 23%, and Bridgit McCormack (D, 23.8%) captured the seat of age-limited democrat Marilyn Kelly.  They defeated Connie Kelley (D, 21.6%) and Colleen O'Brien (R, 21.3%).

Brian Zahra (R) won a 2-year partial term fairly easily 49.5%-41.7% over Sheila Johnson (D). The incumbency designation likely saved Markman and helped Zahra.  Zahra will have to run again for a full term in 2014, when Republicans will also try to capture the open seat of age-limited democrat Michael Cavanaugh.

Michigan State Rep results

Republicans held their majority in the state house despite a net loss of five seats.  Redistricting eliminated three dem seats in Detroit, which were replaced by dem seats in Macomb, Monroe (17), and Kent (74).  Dems held the first two and the latter was a safe GOP pickup.  But Republicans conceded 55 in Washtenaw, so there was no net gain from redistricting, though some existing seats were strengthened.  Six incumbent Republicans lost (52, 71, 76, 84, 91, 110) and the GOP picked up an open dem seat (39).

23 Somerville 50.5% Boritzki 49.5%
25 Clark (R) 48.6% Yanez  51.4%  Better redistricting could have won this seat.
39 Kesto (R) 53.3% Jackson 46.7% A pickup of a dem seat improved by redistricting.
41 Howrylak 50.5% Kerwin 49.5%
52 Ouimet 47% Driskell 53%  Huge redistricting fail.
57 Jenkins 52.5% Schmidt 47.5%
63 Bolger 50.9% Martin 49.1% This seat was close due to Speaker Bolger's knowledge of Roy Schmidt's party-switching scheme.
67 Oesterle (R) 43.6% Cochran 56.4%
71 Schaughnessy 46.6% Abed 53.4% Big upset in Eaton.  Not sure why.
76 Schmidt 31% Brinks 59.3%  Roy Schmidt switched parties at the filing deadline and recruited a patsy to run as a democrat. The scheme blew up in his face and destroyed his chances of reelection.
84 Dan Grimshaw 38.2% Terry Brown (D) 52.6% Grimshaw beat embattled incumbent Kurt Damrow in the primary.
91 Hughes 47.3% Lamonte 48.1%  Holly Hughes lost her RNC post in May, and now her state house seat.  A libertarian cost her some votes.
101 Franz 51%, O'Shea 49%
106 Pettalia 52.2% Hubbard 45.3%
110 Huuki 48.6% Dianda 51.4% Western UP is tough for local Republicans.

Notably, my rankings were pretty good, with all safe races correct, and only three "lean R" races going the opposite way. My tossups split 3-3.

2012 Analysis: Ballot Propositions

In the ballot propositions, conservatives won big victories by defeating propositions 2, 3, and 4.  Notably, 2 and 4 won only two counties (Wayne and Genesee) and 3 won only Washtenaw.

No comments: