July 2021 Judiciary News

Breyer untired!

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Biden nominees:  President Biden got his first judicial confirmations in June.  The first of five district judges confirmed was Julien Neals (D-NJ).  The first of two appeals court judges confirmed was Ketanji Brown Jackson (DC Circuit), a possible Supreme Court candidate.

Public Defenders:  With President Biden nominating more public defenders to the judiciary, GOP senators are raising concerns over whether they have the necessary experience or are too sypathetic to criminals.

Nominations:

4th Circuit:  Toby Heytens--clerk for Ginsberg, Virginia Solicitor General 

9th Circuit:  Jennifer Sung--clerk for Betty Binns Fletcher (9th Circuit), labor lawyer

ED-MI:  Shalina Kumar--Oakland County Sixth Circuit Court

WD-MI:   Jane Beckering--MI court of appeals judge

ED-VA:  Patricia Tolliver Giles--clerk for Gerald Lee (ED-VA), AUSA

ED-VA:  Michael Nachmanoff--clerk for Leonie Brinkema (ED-VA), Magistrate Judge

Claims:  Armando Bonilla--clerk for Garrett Brown (D-NJ), former prosecutor

Claims:  Carolyn Lerner--clerk for Julian Abele Cook (ED-MI), Chief Mediator, DC Circuit

The Federal Judiciary:

Supreme Court:  The court issued rulings in several high-profile cases.  It upheld Obamacare on a 7-2 vote denying the plaintiffs had standing.  It upheld the religious liberty of a Catholic adoption agency in Philadelphia, though on very narrow grounds.  It protected the right of farms to not be invaded by union activists.  It upheld Arizona's election laws on a 6-3 vote.

Supreme Court:  The court has reversed the 9th Circuit many times this term, sometimes unanimously.

Supreme Court:  The court has employees who clip articles and tweets about the court.  Ed Whelan wonders why.

Trump judges:  Trump-appointed judges have blocked many of President Biden's attempts to impose his policies by executive order.

Court reform:  President Biden’s Supreme Court commission held its first meeting, which was either mostly about court packing, or mostly avoided the issue, depending which news article you believe.  Many ideas from limiting judicial review to term limits were discussed.  The commission is only tasked with studying issues, not making recommendations.

Term limits:  Ramesh Ponnuru argues that Supreme Court term limits would not help progressives.

2nd Circuit:  Senior Judge Robert Katzmann died of cancer on June 9 at age 68.  He was appointed by Clinton in 1999 and took senior status in 2021.  He was a feeder judge who sent many clerks to the Supreme Court.

SD-CA:  Judge Roger Benitez has attracted the scorn of anti-gun activists and CNN (but I repeat myself) for his rulings in favor of gun rights.  He has seemingly managed to hear every challenge to California's strict gun laws.  Benitez is a senior judge and Cuban refugee appointed by W in 2004.

D-SD:  Senior Judge Charles Kornmann threw a fit when several US marshalls refused to disclose whether they had received the COVID vaccine.  He claimed they kidnapped three defendants after he ordered the marshalls to leave the courtroom.  He is attempting to charge them with obstruction of justice, saying of the marshalls that "As it stands now, they could well be the most dangerous people in the courtroom".

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 109 current and future judicial vacancies.  All appeals courts except the 3rd and 8th have vacancies.  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.

D-WY: Nancy Freudenthal (Obama) 6/1/22 (senior)

ED-VA: John Gibney (Obama) 11/1 (senior)

D-PR: Francisco Besosa (W) 1/1/22 (senior)
ND-OK: John Dowdell (Obama) 6/21 (senior/certified disability)

State Supreme Courts:

Districts:  Several states are considering changing state supreme court districts.  Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker signed a map that would make two seats friendlier to Ds.  Montana put an amendment on the ballot to create judicial districts.  In Louisiana, the bill to add two seats to the Louisiana Supreme Court and redraw the districts failed to get the necessary 2/3 vote in the state house.

Georgia:  The Judicial Nominating Commission sent Governor Kemp a list of six nominees to succeed Chief Justice Harold Melton.  At least three of the six are black.  Melton is currently the only black judge on the court.

Idaho:  Governor Brad Little appointed Idaho deputy attorney general Colleen Zahn to the vacant seat on the Idaho Supreme Court.

Montana:  The Montana Supreme Court upheld a law eliminating the judicial nominating commission by a 6-1 vote.  The battle over the law led to hard feelings by justices upset that the legislature was insufficiently deferential to their authority.

New Mexico:  New Mexico Supreme Court justice Barbara Vigil will retire June 30.  Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham will get her fourth appointment to the five-member court.

New York:  The state senate confirmed Governor Andrew Cuomo's nominations to fill vacancies on the New York Court of Appeals.  They are Nassau County DA Madeline Singas (D) and Justice Anthony Cannataro, who manages the NYC Civil Courts.

Ohio:  Ohio Supreme Court Justice Jennifer Brunner (D) is running for chief justice.  She was elected in 2020, and was previously Ohio SOS.  R Justices Pat DeWine and Sharon Kennedy are also considering running.

Ohio:  The Ohio house passsed a bill to list the party of Ohio Supreme Court and appeals courts candidates on the general election ballot.  Governor DeWine plans to sign the bill.

Oklahoma:  The Oklahoma Judicial Nominating Commission announced three finalists for the Oklahoma Supreme Court seat vacated by Tom Colbert.  They are Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals Judges Dana Kuehn and Stacie Hixon and Tulsa County District Judge Rebecca Nightingale.  Governor Kevin Stitt will get his third appointment to the court.

Numbers and Trivia:

Minorities:  Ed Whelan points out that minorities are overrepresented in the judiciary relative to the number who have law degrees, and in some cases even relative to the overall population.

Feeder judges:  A feeder judge is a judge whose clerks frequently go on to clerk for the Supreme Court.  The most common D feeder judges over the past decade (Garland and Katzmann) have recently left the judiciary.  Two others (Tatel and Fletcher) have are taking senior status this year.  It isn't clear who will succeed them, though Sri Srinivasan (DC Circuit) is likely to be one.

Retirements (Carter):  When did appeals court judges appointed by Jimmy Carter retire?  By retire, I mean leave active status, that is resign, retire, take senior status, or die in office.  All 56 Carter appointees have left active status.  Here are the numbers.

4 (7%) resigned early

16 (29%) retired when eligible (within 1st year)

31 (55%) retired later

5 (9%) died in office

24 (43%) retired under R president

32 (57%) retired under D president

5 (9%) retired in first year of D president

Carter only had 12 appointees in his first two years, but he had 44 in his last two years after a court expansion bill was passed.  The appointees in the last two years seem more liberal than those in the first two years.

Resources:

Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room

How Appealing
Twitter: FedJudges Senate Cloakroom
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings 2021-2022
Wikipedia: US Appeals Courts Trump Judges Biden Judges
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia--State Supreme Court Vacancies 2021
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July August September October Elections November December

2021: January February March April May June 

Michigan State Senate Debunks Election Conspiracies

The Michigan state senate oversight committee issued a report on the 2020 election in Michigan.

Report on the November 2020 Election in Michigan

The report debunks many common claims of voter fraud and conspiracy theories concerning the 2020 election.  It also identifies some problems with the way the election was administered and suggests some improvements to the election system.  Some highlights of the report include:

• "This Committee found no evidence of widespread or systematic fraud in Michigan’s prosecution of the 2020 election."
• Most claims of dead people voting were false. "There were two claims of deceased individuals casting votes that were found to be true; one was a clerical error while the other was a timing issue."
• The false claim by the Voter Integrity Project of "289,866 illegal votes" cast was an extrapolation from a small sample of people who confused absentee ballots with absentee ballot applications.
• Vote counting in Detroit was a mess, and many involved were confused (including Republican observers), but there is no indication of mass voter fraud.
• In Antrim County, the initially reported unofficial results were wrong, but the initial tabulator tapes reported correct results.  A hand recount verified that this count was correct.
• "If the losing party had been so confident of any of these cyber attack theories or software-based vote switching, simply asking for several hand recounts or re-tabulations in the various precincts would have demonstrated a genuine hack had happened and that there was necessity for additional recounts and investigations."
• An audit was conducted of selected precincts and races in each county in Michigan.

June 2021 Judiciary News

Don't tire, Breyer!

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Diversity:  President Biden's first 20 judicial nominees embody the left's idea of diversity.  All of them are on the left, and none of them is a white male.

D-CO:  Colorado's senators have recommended three candidates, Kenzo Kawanabe, Charlotte Sweeney and Nina Wang, for a future vacancy on the district court.

SD-FL:  The applicants for the two vacancies on SD-FL were be interviewed by the congressional judicial nominating commission, which later announced its finalists.  The congressional JNC was established by Rep. Wasserman-Schultz and is not authorized by Senators Scott or Rubio.

Judiciary Committee:  Shockingly, Senate Ds seem not to be running the Judiciary Committee by the standards they demanded it run by when Rs ran the committee.

Nominations:

TBD

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:

TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Breyer:  Ds are worried they might not be able to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court.

Supreme Court:  Carrie Severino surveys the left's attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court through threats of court packing.

Supreme Court:  The Supreme Court will hear an appeal on Mississippi's law that bans abortion after 15 weeks (with the usual exceptions).  The case could be a vehicle to overturn Roe v. Wade, though more likely it will just be rolled back somewhat.

Court reform:  President Biden’s Supreme Court commission held its first meeting on May 19.  It has six months from that date to study changes to the judiciary.

4th Circuit:  Virginia's D senators have recommended U.S. District Court judges Arenda Allen and M. Hannah Lauck and Virginia Solicitor General Toby Heytens for the open seat on the 4th Circuit.

9th Circuit:  Ed Whelan observes that conservatives on the 9th Circuit have had some success in getting en banc review of bad panel decisions.

11th Circuit:  Retired judge Joseph W. Hatchett died on April 30.  He joined the Florida Supreme Court  in 1975. He was appointed to the Fifth Circuit by Carter in 1979. He transferred to the Eleventh Circuit in 1981.  He was Chief Judge from 1996 until his retirement in 1999.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 112 current and future judicial vacancies.  The 18 appeals court vacancies are on the 1st (1), 2nd (3), 4th (1), 5th (1), 6th (1), 7th (1), 9th (4), 10th (2), 11th (1), DC (2), and Federal (1).  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.

9th Circuit: Richard Paez (Clinton) TBD (senior)

ED-VA: Anthony Trenga (W) 6/1 (senior)

5th Circuit: James Dennis (Clinton) TBD (senior)

MD-PA: John E. Jones III (W) XX (retired)

D-PR: Gustavo Gelpí (W) TBD (nominated to 1st Circuit)

9th Circuit: William Fletcher (Clinton) TBD (senior)

11th Circuit: Beverly Martin (Obama) 9/30 (retired)

6th Circuit: Bernice Donald (Obama) XX (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Alaska:   The Alaska Judicial Council has selected three finalists for a seat on the Alaska Supreme Court being vacated by Joel Bolger.  They are Superior Court Judges Dani Crosby, Jennifer Stuart Henderson and Yvonne Lamoureux, who were all appointed to the Superior Court by left-leaning independent Gov. Bill Walker.   All three of them were finalists for the previous vacancy in 2020.  Another candidate, who was supporeted by Governor Dunleavy's appointees on the council, was eliminated after Bolger voted not to nominate him.

Arizona:  The Arizona Commission on Appellate Court Appointments nominated seven candidates for the open seat on the Arizona Supreme Court vacated by Andrew Gould.  Four candidates are Rs, two are independents, and one is a libertarian. Governor Doug Ducey will appoint one of them.

Illinois:  The D-controlled legislature has proposed new maps for the Illinois Supreme Court.  The map has not been updated since the 1960s, but a more proximate cause for the proposal is the defeat of a D judge in a 2020 retention election.  That seat will be open in 2022, along with a seat held by an R who was appointed to fill a vacancy.  The proposed new map makes both seats more friendly to Ds.

Maine:  Governor Janet Mills nominated Superior Court Justice Valerie Stanfill, age 63, to become chief justice of the Maine Supreme Court.  The seat has been vacant for over a year, since Chief Justice Leigh Saufley stepped down.

Missouri:  Governor Mike Parson appointed Missouri Eastern District Court of Appeals judge Robin Ransom to fill he Missouri Supreme Court seat vacated by Laura Denvir Stith.  Ransom will be the court's first black female justice.  The other candidates nominated by the Appellate Judicial Commission were Missouri Southern District Court of Appeals judge Donald E. Burrell Jr. and 21st Judicial Circuit judge William M. Corrigan Jr.

New York:  Governor Andrew Cuomo has made nominations to fill vacancies on the New York Court of Appeals.  They are Nassau County DA Madeline Singas (D) and Justice Anthony Cannataro, who manages the NYC Civil Courts.  The state senate has until June 10 to consider the nominations, which it might not due to Cuomo's scandals and possible impeachment trial.

Pennsylvania:  Commonwealth Court Judge Kevin Brobson won the R primary for an open Supreme Court seat with 53%.  Commonwealth Court Judge Patricia McCullough had 32%.  Brobson will face Superior Court Judge Maria McLaughlin (D) in the November 2 general election.

Numbers and Trivia:

Here are the numbers of senior status declarations/retirements for federal judges (circuit judges) for the past few months.

1 (0) December

20 (3) January

19 (3) February

8 (3) March

7 (1) April

8 (5) May

2020 Election:  The Juris Lab has some data on lawsuits related to the 2020 election.

Resources:

Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room

How Appealing
Twitter: FedJudges Senate Cloakroom
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings 2021-2022
Wikipedia: US Appeals Courts Trump Judges Biden Judges
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia--State Supreme Court Vacancies 2021
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July August September October Elections November December

2021: January February March April May

2021 Kalamazoo Election Preview

This article was last updated October 26, 2021.

This is a preview of the November 2 elections in Kalamazoo County.

Kalamazoo City Commission

The mayor and three seats on the Kalamazoo City Commission are up for election. The seven commissioners are Mayor David Anderson (on since 2005, mayor since 2019), Patrese Griffin (2019), Erin Knott (2015), Jack Urban (2013), Eric Cunningham (2017), Jeanne Hess (2019), and Chris Praedel (2019).

In 2014, Kalamazoo voters passed a charter amendment changing the charter by electing the mayor separately and implementing staggered four-year terms for the other seats (similar to the system Portage uses).  In 2019, Griffin, Hess, and Praedel got four-year terms.  The other three seats were up in 2017.

Mayor Anderson, a center-left democrat, will run for reelection.  He defeated David Benac, a Bernie Sanders fan, in 2019.  Commissioner/Vice Mayor Patrese Griffin announced for mayor, and resigned to run.  However, due to a campaign finance error, she could appear on the ballot and dropped out.  Benjamin Stanley is also running for mayor.

Cunningham, Knott, and Urban will not run again.  Former commissioner Don Cooney (1997-2019), a Bernie-style leftist, is seeking to return to the commission.  Other candidates include community organizer Marshall Kilgore, Alphonso Harris, Qianna Decker, Steven Chandler, Stephanie Hoffman, activist Esteven Juarez (who ran for mayor in 2019), and James Mitchell.

Portage City Council

The mayor and three seats on the Portage City Council are up for election.  Patricia Randall was elected mayor in 2017 after serving on the council since 2009.  She is unopposed this year, as she was in 2019.

The other councilmembers are Terry Urban (1997), Claudette Reid (2005), Jim Pearson (2011), Lori Knapp (2017), Chris Burns (2017), and Vic Ledbetter (2020).  Vic Ledbetter filled a seat vacated by the resignation of Richard Ford.

The three seats up for 4-year terms are held by Urban, Reid, and Knapp.  Reid is retiring.  Urban and Ledbetter are running for these seats.  Also running is Lisa Brayton, a Republican who lost a close race for county commission in 2020.

There will be an election for a 2-year term for the seat held by Vic Ledbetter.  The candidates are Lori Knapp and Tara Gish.

Is Third Party Vote Dropoff Evidence of Voter Fraud?

Stu Cvrk at RedState has yet another article promoting voter fraud conspiracy theories.  He claims that the drop in third party and write-in votes between 2016 and 2020 is evidence of voter fraud.  In particular, he claims that voting machines were programmed to declare third party votes needed adjudication, and then election officials declared these votes to be for Biden.

There is nothing unusual about the third party vote declining when an incumbent is running for reelection.  Consider recent pairs of elections when an incumbent sought first an second terms.

5.7% 2016 -> 2.8% 2020
1.4% 2008 -> 1.7% 2012
3.7% 2000 -> 1.0% 2004
19.5% 1992 -> 10.1% 1996
1.0% 1988 -> 19.5% 1992
8.3% 1980 -> 0.6% 1984

Thus in the last 40 years, third party total declined four times and increased twice (once by a trivial amount).  This shouldn't be surprising.  When an incumbent runs for reelection, the election tends to become a referendum on the incumbent.  In 2016, many voters disliked both candidates, so they voted for third party candidates or write-ins as a protest.  In 2020, Trump won back some disgruntled conservatives, while many leftists and centrist rallied to Biden to defeat Trump.

Another relevant factor is the strength of the third party candidates.  In 2016, the Libertarian candidate was Gary Johnson, a former two-term governor of New Mexico.  In 2020, they ran an obscure adjunct professor who didn't make any impact.  Of course, the huge jump in 1992 is largely explained by Ross Perot, a billionaire who spent a fortune to run a credible national campaign.

Also arguing strongly against this theory is that the decline in third party votes happened in every state (and probably every county as well) between 2016 and 2020.  Were the vote counting machines corrupted everywhere, regardless of location and manufacturer?  Note that vote adjudication is a manual process, so rigging this would require crooked operatives in tens of thousands of vote counting locations all across the country.  And if they missed any of them, the third party vote totals would be wildly out of sync with the rest of the country.

These theories keep getting dumber and dumber.

May 2021 Judiciary News

Mayday! Mayday!

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Diversity:  In President Biden's initial slate of judicial nominees, "nine of the eleven nominees are female, five are African American, three are Asian American—I’m including one who is Arab American (as well as Muslim)—and one is Latina".  Naturally, Latino groups are attacking the administration for not caring about them.

Diversity:  "A Biden Judge Would Be the First-Ever Muslim on the Federal Bench. Some Muslims Are Furious" due to his work for ICE and the US military during the Iraq War.

Nominations:

WD-WA: David Estudillo--Grant County Superior Court judge

WD-WA: Tana Lin--trial lawyer

D-NJ: Christine O’Hearn--trial lawyer

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:

TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Court packing:  Several progressive Ds in Congress introduced legislation to pack the Supreme Court, adding four seats.  There is essentially no nonpartisan argument for the change, as explained by Thomas Jipping.

Commission:  President Biden has appointed a commission on the Supreme Court.  Josh Blackman notes that about 2/3 of the members are on the left, and 1/3 are on the center or right.  The commission is tasked with surveying arguments on the issue but not to make recommendations, which suggests that Biden is not planning to pack the Supreme Court.

Breyer:  Justice Breyer came out against packing the Supreme Court in a speech at Harvard Law School.  He argued that it would undermine the legitimacy of the Supreme Court.  Get ready for progressives to declare Breyer a white supremacist.

Breyer:  Justice Breyer hired a full slate of four clerks for next year, leading observers such as David Lat to believe that it is likely he will not retire.  Retiring justices often, but not always, hire fewer than four clerks when they are planning to retire.

Chief Judges:  Jacob Finkel claims Trump appointees to circuit courts were picked so that several Trump appointees will become chief judge in the future.  Of course, it could just be that somewhat older candidates had the inside track on the first appointments.  He also speculates without evidence that Trump-appointed chief judges will manipulate 3-judge panels to help their preferred policy outcomes.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 106 current and future judicial vacancies.  The 13 appeals court vacancies are on the 1st (1), 2nd (3), 4th (1), 7th (1), 9th (2), 10th (2), DC (2), and Federal (1).  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.

SD-NY: Colleen McMahon (Clinton) 4/10 (senior)

9th Circuit: Marsha Berzon (Clinton) TBD (senior)

D-UT: David Nuffer (Obama) 4/2/22 (senior)

ED-PA: Petrese Tucker (Clinton) 6/1 (senior)

D-DC: Ketanji Brown Jackson (Obama) TBD (elevated)

Claims: Lydia Griggsby (Obama) TBD (elevated)

ED-CA: John Mendez (W) 4/17/22 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Idaho:  The Idaho Judicial Council selected 3 applicants for seat on the Idaho Supreme Court being vacated by Justice Roger Burdick.  They are Idaho Court of Appeals judge Jessica Lorello, 

magistrate judge Diane Walker, and Idaho deputy attorney general Colleen Zahn.

Louisiana:  The Louisiana state senate passed a bill to increase the Louisiana Supreme Court from seven to nine seats, and to force redrawing of the Supreme Court districts each decade to reflect population shifts.  The bill passed by a bipartisan 36-2 vote.

Michigan:  Justice Richard Bernstein (D) has been working from Dubai for the past three months.  He is up for re-election next year.  State rep. Beau LaFave (R) commented, "Having enough privilege to leave Michigan, where you voted to let the Governor become a dictator, move to a proper dictatorship, continue ruling on cases, and keep getting paid, is the real Bernstein Advantage."

Missouri:  There are 25 applicants for the Missouri Supreme Court seat vacated by Laura Denvir Stith.  The Appellate Judicial Commission will begin interviewing candidates on May 19.

Montana:  Montana's new law eliminating the judicial nominating commission is being challenged in court.  Chief Justice Mike McGrath recused himself.  There was an organized effort to get lower court judges to take positions on the bill, including the judge who would have replaced McGrath.  The legislature issued a subpoena for the communications of the organizer of the effort.  The Supreme Court tried to quash the subpoena, but the attorney general refused to respect the ruling.

Ohio:  The state senate passed a bill to list the partisan affiliations of Supreme Court candidates in the general election.  Currently candidates run in partisan primaries but the general election is nonpartisan.  The Ohio Supreme Court has a 4 R 3 D breakdown.

Pennsylvania:  Commonwealth Court Judge Kevin Brobson has been endorsed by the NRA and GOA.  The other GOP candidates for an open Supreme Court seat, Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas Judge Paula Patrick, and Commonwealth Court Judge Patricia McCullough, are also courting pro-gun voters.  The primary is May 18, and the winner will face Superior Court Judge Maria McLaughlin (D) in the November 2 general election.

Wisconsin:  R candidates picked up two seats on the Wisconsin Court of Appeals in the April 6 election.  In district 2, Shelley Grogan won 56-44 over incumbent Jeffrey Davis, who was appointed to replace Brian Hagedorn.  In district 3, Gregory Gill defeated Rick Cveykus 55-45 for the seat of retiring judge Mark Seidl.

Numbers and Trivia:

As of May 23, Jeffrey Sutton will be the Chief Judge of the 6th Circuit, taking over from R. Guy Cole. Cole was appointed by Clinton.  Sutton clerked for Scalia.  He was appointed by W in 2003, and is a feeder judge.

As of May 24, Kimberly Ann Moore will be the Chief Judge of the Federal Circuit, taking over from Sharon Proust. Moore was appointed by W in 2001 and Proust by W in 2006. 

The Presidents who appointed chief judges of the 13 appeals courts will be Clinton (4, 9), W (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, Fed), and Obama (DC).

Here are the numbers of senior status declarations/retirements for the past few months.

1 December

20 January

19 February

8 March

7 April

History:

Court Packing:  Carrie Severino surveys statements by Senate Ds opposing court packing.  We shall see whether these statements have expiration dates.

Retirements:  Joan Biskupic reviews the history of presidents encouraging Supreme Court justices to retire.

Resources:

Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room

How Appealing
Twitter: FedJudges Senate Cloakroom
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings 2021-2022
Wikipedia: US Appeals Courts Trump Judges Biden Judges
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia--State Supreme Court Vacancies 2021
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July August September October Elections November December

2021: January February March April

The Facts about 2020 Election Lawsuits

One stumbling block to claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election is the large number of court rulings against lawsuits making such claims.  Some proponents of these theories have tried to argue that no judges actually examined the merits of these claims, but this is false.

A recent RedState article by Stu Cvrk takes a different tack, arguing that Trump and his allies actually won many election lawsuits.  It points to an interesting database of such lawsuits.

2020 US Presidential Election Related Lawsuits

The article and database try to spin the results as favorably for Trump as possible, but they omit a few pertinent observations.  Most of the wins are in the category of "rules", one in "process", and one "miscellaneous".  None of the wins involve vote counting machines or other voter fraud.

Changes to election laws and policies that occurred shortly before the election are a legitimate issue, though often overstated.  Many of these changes were reversed prior to the election.

All but one of the wins in cases filed by Trump and his allies occurred before the election or the next day.  Only one occurred later.  The time to challenge these changes was before the election, not after.  Overturning the election based on policies that weren't challenged before the election was never going to happen.

April 2021 Judiciary News

Happy liberal judges day!

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Garland:  The Senate approved Merrick Garland as Attorney General by a 70-30 vote.  The Senate Judiciary Committee previously him by a 15-7 vote.  His seat on the DC Circuit is now open for President Biden to fill.

DC Circuit:  President Biden has nominated judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the DC Circuit.  According to Ed Whelan, Jackson has a "middling reputation" for competence.  He lists several times she was overturned by D-appointed judges on the DC Circuit.

Blue slip:  Florida house Ds, apparently led by Debbie Wasserman Schultz and impeached former federal judge Alcee Hastings, are trying to set up a judicial selection commission with the goal of bypassing Florida's R senators.  Senator Rick Scott is firmly opposing the effort.

D-NV:  Nevada's senators are planning to recommend Judge Jennifer Togliatti for a seat on the Nevada district court.  She was previously nominated by President Trump in 2019.  Her nomination was approved by the Judiciary Committee 15-7 (with conservatives in opposition) and she did not receive a final vote.

Nominations:

DC Circuit: Ketanji Brown Jackson--clerk for Breyer, Judge (D-DC)

7th Circuit: Candace Jackson-Akiwumi--clerk for Roger Gregory (4th Circuit)

Federal Circuit: Tiffany Cunningham--clerk for Timothy Dyk (Federal Circuit)

D-MD: Deborah Boardman--Magistrate Judge

D-MD: Lydia Kay Griggsby--Judge (Claims)

D-DC: Florence Pan--clerk for Ralph Winter (2nd Circuit), Judge (DC Superior Court)

D-NJ: Julien Neals--Acting County Administrator for Bergen County

D-NJ: Zahid Quraishi--Magistrate Judge

D-CO: Regina Rodriguez--AUSA

D-NM: Margaret Strickland--trial lawyer

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:

TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

2nd Circuit:  Judge Peter Hall of the 2nd Circuit died of cancer on March 11 at age 72.  He had not heard cases since August, and took senior status on March 4.  He was a moderate to liberal Vermont R who was appointed by W in 2004 after being the US attorney for Vermont.

8th Circuit:  Former Judge Kermit Bye of the 8th Circuit (ND) died on March 20 at age 84.  He was appointed by Clinton in 2000, took senior status in 2015, and retired in 2016.

10th Circuit:  This circuit now has an even split of R and D appointees, due to D appointees Carlos Lucero and Mary Briscoe taking senior status.  Of course, this split isn't likely to last very long.

Judicial conference:  The US Judicial Conference has its annual recommendations for new judgeships.  It is recommending two new judgeships for the 9th Circuit, down from five in previous years.  They are also recommending the addition of 77 new district judges, including 30 in California, 12 in Texas, and 11 in Florida.  They also recommend converting 9 temporary judgeships to permanent.

Judicial workload:  Ed Whelan is skeptical of the need for new appellate judges on the 9th Circuit.

Judicial vacancies:  Ed Whelan asks why there has been a relatively small number of appellate vacancies announced since Joe Biden took office.  He cites parochial reasons including judges' roles on 3-judge and en banc panels.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 100 current and future judicial vacancies.  The 12 appeals court vacancies are on the 1st (1), 2nd (3), 4th (1), 7th (1), 9th (1), 10th (2), DC (2), and Federal (1).  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.

SD-NY: George Daniels (Clinton) 5/1 (senior)

D-CO: Richard Jackson (Obama) 9/30 (senior)

2nd Circuit: Peter Hall (W) 3/4 (senior)

DC Circuit: Merrick Garland (Clinton) 3/10 (confirmed AG)

D-MA: William Young (Reagan) 6/1 (senior)

Federal Circuit: Evan Wallach (Obama) 5/31 (senior)

Trade: Timothy Stanceu (W) 4/5 (senior)

SD-IA: John Alfred Jarvey (W) 3/18/22 (retired)

State Supreme Courts:

Arizona:  Arizona Supreme Court Justice Andrew Gould will retire from the court on April 1.  He is expected to run for Attorney General, as AG Mark Brnovich is term-limited.  Gould was appointed by Governor Doug Ducey in 2016.  Ducey will get to make his sixth appointment to the court.

Idaho:  Nine attorneys have applied for the seat on the Idaho Supreme Court being vacated by Justice Roger Burdick.  The Idaho Judicial Council will select 2-4 applicants for Governor Brad Little to select from.

Maine:  As of April 14, a seat on Maine Supreme Judicial Court will have been open for one year.  Governor Janet Mills has yet to name a new chief justice to replace Leigh Saufley, who left to become Dean of the University of Maine School of Law.

Montana:  Governor Greg Gianforte signed a bill to make judicial appointments directly without a nominating commission.  Judges will still have to contest the next general election after their appointment.

New Jersey:  Governor Phil Murphy will nominate Rachel Wainer Apter, age 40, an ACLU attorney and Ginsburg clerk to the New Jersey Supreme Court.  She would replace Justice Jaynee LaVecchia, who will retire August 31.

New York:  Justice Paul Feinman retired on March 23 and died 8 days later.  There are two other impending vacancies due to the retirements of Leslie Stein on June 4 and Eugene Fahey on December 31.  All three were appointed by Andrew Coumo.  Coumo can nominate successors, though his legal troubles may make it harder to confirm them.

Oklahoma:  Eight individuals have applied for the open seat on the Oklahoma Supreme Court, District 6 (Congressional District 1).  The Judicial Nominating Commission will interview the candidates.

Pennsylvania:  The GOP candidates for the open Supreme Court seat are Commonwealth Court Judge Kevin Brobson, Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas Judge Paula Patrick, and Commonwealth Court Judge Patricia McCullough.  The primary is May 18, and the winner will face Superior Court Judge Maria McLaughlin (D) in the November 2 general election.

Numbers and Trivia:

The ages of the circuit judges who have taken senior status under Biden are 67, 66, 71, 71, 80, 73, 68, 78, 71.

Resources:

Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room

How Appealing
Twitter: FedJudges Senate Cloakroom
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings
Wikipedia: US Appeals Courts Trump Judges Biden Judges
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia--State Supreme Court Vacancies 2021
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July August September October Elections November December

2021: January February March

Jack Welborn, RIP

State Senator Jack Welborn passed away on Sunday.  Welborn was a conservative leader in Kalamazoo County from the 1960s through the 90s.  The article below mostly does a good job covering his career.  One omission is that Welborn was one of a very small number of legislators to support Ronald Reagan over Gerald Ford for president in 1976.  At the time the Michigan GOP was dominated by moderate Milliken supporters.  Welborn contributed to conservatives becoming dominant in the Michigan GOP.

Former State Sen. Jack Welborn Passes Away at 88

By Tim Collins, WBCK

Former State Senator Jack Welborn, a longtime conservative leader in Michigan politics has died.  He was 88.  Wellborn who was well known for his anti-tax, smaller government, and pro-life stands died overnight Sunday, March 7, 2021, at the home he built at the family farm on Riverview Drive north of Parchment.  He was recently diagnosed with kidney failure and declined dialysis treatment.   Many thought of Welborn as a Reagan Conservative, before Reagan was one.

The Cooper Township dairy farmer first entered politics in 1966 when he was elected Cooper Township Supervisor, unseating long-time incumbent Willard Doster. The story goes that the entrenched incumbent, Doster, was so mad about losing that he piled all of the township's official documents in a big stack in the middle of the room, leaving Welborn to sort it all out. And sort things out he did.

Welborn mounted a legal challenge against the State of Michigan over the taxation of township residents and developed a reputation as a strong advocate of fair taxes and less government. Cooper Township fought long and hard, and ultimately won the suit, and several state reforms were enacted as a result. The attorney in the case, Richard Reed, recalled that later when Welborn was elected to the legislature, he was able to pass legislation to create the Michigan Tax Tribunal.  Reed said Michigan was one of the first states to enact such reforms, to ensure that an independent body would review municipal tax issues. Until then, and in the early 1970's case, Reed characterized the State Tax Commission review of cases as something like the fox guarding the henhouse. Reed said that Welborn was "very knowledgeable and had good ideas, but didn't try to run the case. He was fearless and honest."

In 1972, Welborn was elected to the State House of Representatives, and later to the State Senate, where he served from 1974 to 1982.  He left the Senate to stage an unsuccessful bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, and then returned to the Senate when his brother, State Senator Bob Welborn died of cancer in 1985. Welborn served in the State Senate until 1994.

Former 63rd State Rep. Jerry  Vander Roest knew Welborn for more than 50 years and even served as his chief of staff in Lansing for a few months, before getting elected to the state house. “Jack was strong in his convictions and principles and everyone knew they could take him at his word.”  Vander Roest said that he was respected on both sides of the aisle, and he would always listen to what others had to say.

Vander Roest recalled Welborn’s retirement from the State Senate. “Almost every Democratic senator got up and spoke highly of him.  At that time no one was harder on the Democratic Party than Jack. That was such a great compliment that the people that were viewed as his political enemies spoke so highly of him.”

Vander Roest’s son Jeff said Welborn reminded him of Donald Trump, in that he wasn’t afraid to stand up for what he believed. “When the Kalamazoo Gazette was attacking Jack back in the 80s, Jack paid for a full-page ad in the Gazette to show how the paper had supported slavery during the beginning of the Civil war.”

Dave Culver knew Welborn from the early 50’s when both were in 4-H and Future Farmers of America. “Jack was as honest as a man could be,” remembered Culver. “He had great people skills, probably because he had great empathy for people.”

Culver’s wife Carole was appointed Cooper Township Clerk by supervisor Welborn in 1970 and served as an elected official for 30 years. “The Amish people in Michigan adored Jack,” said Culver. “He went to bat for them in the legislature over freedom of religion issues that were related to homeschooling, and exemptions for worker’s comp and other things. He also helped lead the effort, along with Dr. Clarence M. Schrier and others to save the historic Kalamazoo Psychiatric Hospital Water Tower from the wrecking ball in 1974.”

March 2021 Judiciary News

Happy one year anniversary of judiciary news!

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Judiciary Committee:  The Senate Judiciary Committee now has 11 members of each party.  Ds have added Senators Jon Ossoff (GA) and Alex Padilla (CA) to the Senate Judiciary Committee.  Neither are lawyers.  Ossoff is a somewhat odd choice, as he comes from a competitive state.  R senators Mike Crapo (ID) and Joni Ernst (IA) have been removed from the committee, and Tom Cotton (AR) has been added.  Cotton has a JD from Harvard and clerked for Jerry Smith (5th Circuit).

Garland:  The Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing for Attorney General nominee Merrick Garland, a DC Circuit judge.  It was a somewhat rocky hearing.  Garland confused equity and equality, said he hasn't thought about whether illegal border crossing should be a crime, dodged questions about the Durham probe and transgender athletes competing in girls' sports, defended DOJ nominee Kristen Clarke, who called Blacks superior, referenced a Capital 'bombing', and suggested Antifa attacks on federal courthouse may not be domestic terrorism because they happened at night.  None of this will stop the media from referring to him as a moderate.

ABA:  The Biden administration will not wait for a rating from the American Bar Association (ABA) before making judicial nominations.  We can't wait for all the D senators who condemned the Trump administration for the same policy to object.

Diversity:  Colorado's D senators are promoting Regina Rodriguez for a district court vacancy.  She is a half Mexican, half Japanese woman, who might seem to embody the diversity the left wants on the courts.  But Brian Fallon of Demand Justice is opposing the nomination because she worked for a corporate law firm.

Biden nominees:  Harsh Voruganti of the Vetting Room offers his predictions for possible Biden nominees for judicial vacancies.

Supreme Court:  Maneuvering to fill a potential Supreme Court vacancy is already underway.  House Majority Whip James Clyburn, whose endorsement was key to President Biden's nomination, is pushing Judge Michelle Childs (D-SC) for the seat.  Childs, age 54, was appointed by Obama in 2010.  Biden has pledged to appoint a black woman, but there is some resentment in the black caucus towards potential nominees from the Ivy League such as Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson (D-DC) and Justice Leondra Kruger (CA-SC).

Nominations:

TBD

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:

March 1 (business):  Merrick Garland (attorney general) was approved 15-7.

March 9 (nominations):  Lisa Monaco and Vanita Gupta (DOJ positions) will be considered.

The Federal Judiciary:

Commission:  The Biden panel on reforming the judiciary is unlikely to recommend packing the Supreme Court.  More likely proposals include nonpartisan ideas like judicial term limits and ethics reforms.

Judicial expansion:  Various liberal groups are pushing for an expansion in the number of federal judges.  Somehow, they didn't demand this during the previous four years.  While there is a legitimate need for more judges in some districts, neither party wants to allow a president of the other party to make more appointments.

En Banc:  Partisan splits on en banc panels have become much more common in the past few years.  The article tries to blame Trump, though a partisan split requires both sides to be partisan.

2nd Circuit:  Retired judge Chris Droney revealed in an interview that "I had some role in the appointment of my successor", William Nardini.  This helps to explain the otherwise underwhelming appointment of Nardini, a clerk for Sandra Day O'Connor.

3rd Circuit:  Senior Judge Morton Greenberg died on January 28 at age 87.  Reagan appointed him to the 3rd Circuit in 1987.  He took senior status in 2000.

11th Circuit:  Senior Judge Peter Fay died on January 31 at age 92.  Nixon appointed him to SD-FL in 1970 and Ford appointed him to the 5th Circuit in 1976.  He was assigned to the 11th Circuit when it was created in 1981.  He took senior status in 1994.

SD-TX:  The 5th Circuit reversed Judge Lynn Hughes' improper dismissal of a female professor’s sex discrimination claims and removed him from the case.  Hughes has a history of controversial comments, including saying to a female prosecutor that "we didn’t let girls do it in the old days.”  Hughes, who is 79, was appointed by Reagan in 1985.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 91 current and future judicial vacancies.  The 9 appeals court vacancies are on the 1st (1), 2nd (2), 4th (1), 7th (1), 9th (1), 10th (2), and DC (1).  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.

WD-LA: Elizabeth Foote (Obama) 1/21/22 (senior)

WD-MI: Janet Neff (W) 3/1 (senior)

D-CT: Janet Hall (Clinton) 1/21 (senior)

SD-OH: Solomon Oliver (Clinton) 2/15 (senior)

D-DC: Emmet Sullivan (Clinton) 4/3 (senior)

10th Circuit: Mary Briscoe (Clinton) 3/15 (senior)

WD-VA: James Parker Jones (Clinton) 8/30 (senior)

ND-GA: Thomas Thrash Jr. (Clinton) 5/8 (senior)

DC Circuit: David Tatel (Clinton) TBD (senior)

ED-PA: Darnell Jones II (W) 3/15 (senior)

D-KS: Julie Robinson (W) 1/14/22 (senior)

D-CT: Vanessa Bryant, (W) 2/1 (senior)

9th circuit: Susan Graber (Clinton) TBD (senior)

D-PR: Carmen Cerezo (Carter) 2/28 (retired)

D-NH: Paul Barbadoro (HW) 3/1 (senior)

CD-CA: Virginia Phillips (Clinton) 2/14/22 (retired)

ND-GA: Amy Totenberg (Obama) 4/4 (senior)

4th Circuit: Barbara Keenan (Obama) 8/31 (senior)

WD-TX: Philip R. Martinez (W) 2/26 (death)

State Supreme Courts:

Judicial Selection:  Many states are considering changes to how judges are selected.  In particular, R legislators in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Oklahoma, and South Carolina are trying to reduce or eliminate the role of judicial nominating commissions that are influenced by liberal bar associations.

Georgia:  Chief Justice Harold Melton will retire on July 1.  He is the only black justice on the all-R nine-member court.  He was appointed by Sonny Perdue in 2005, and is only 54 now.  His successor will be the third appointee of Governor Brian Kemp.

Idaho:  Justice Roger Burdick will retire on June 30.  He is 73, and was appointed by Dirk Kempthorne in 2003.  His successor will be the first appointee of Governor Brad Little.

Missouri:  Missouri Supreme Court Judge Laura Denvir Stith will retire on March 8.  She had to retire no later than 2023 due to the age limit of 70.  She was appointed in 2001 by D governor Bob Holden.  The Missouri Supreme Court has 4 D and 3 R appointees, but the Rs may not always be conservative.  Missouri has a "merit selection" system that sometimes makes it difficult to appoint conservative judges.

Montana:  Now that Montana has an R trifecta, the legislature is considering how to reform judicial selection.  Governor Gianforte is supporting a bill to make appointments directly without a nominating commission.  Meanwhile, the state house passed a bill to elect judges by district.  Electing judges on a partisan basis is also being considered.  Montana is in the sad group of red states with liberal supreme courts, along with Alaska, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma.

Numbers and Trivia:

District Judges:  Senate Ds seem to have decided not to eliminate the blue slip for district judges.  The numbers below show that there are more district judgeships assigned to blue states than to red states, so in the long run, there may be more downside to Ds to eliminate the blue slip.

261 Red (Two R senators)

78 Purple (One R, one D senator)

317 Blue (Two D senators)

26 None (DC and territories)

History:

Sotomayor:  Thanks to RightInMA for compiling a list of times the media referred to Sonya Sotomayor as a "moderate".

Resources:
Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room

How Appealing
Twitter: FedJudges Senate Cloakroom
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings
Wikipedia: US Appeals Courts Trump Judges
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia--State Supreme Court Vacancies 2021
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July August September October Elections November December

2021: January February

February 2021 Judiciary News

Leave every vacancy unfilled.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Biden:  Law360 has a list of possible Biden appeals court nominees.  Many are district judges appointed by Obama, and several were previously rejected by senate Rs.

Biden:  Ed Whelan outlines three questions about Biden judicial nominees.  Will another Supreme Court vacancy arise?  Will many new vacancies open up on the federal appellate courts?  Will the Biden White House make nominations expeditiously?

Retirements:  Harsh Voruganti of the Vetting Room lists all appeals court judges who are currently eligible for senior status now or in the near future.

Renominations:  Harsh Voruganti lists all recent cases of a president renominating an unconfirmed nominee of a predecessor.  It is likely that some previous Trump and Obama nominees will be nominated by President Biden.

First nominations:  Harsh Voruganti discusses how quickly (or slowly) new presidents submit their first judicial nominees.

Court packing:  Ilya Somin argues that President Biden's commission on judicial reform is unlikely to support court packing.  Bob Bauer, the chairman of the commission, previously wrote an article opposing court packing.

Judiciary Committee:  The Senate Judiciary Committee has not yet organized itself for this session.  It currently has 12 Rs and 9 Ds.  It will presumably have equal numbers of Rs and Ds, but it is unknown whether any Rs will have to give up their seats.

Garland:  President Biden announced that judge Merrick Garland of the DC Circuit is his nominee for Attorney General.  Garland was nominated to the DC Circuit by Clinton in 1997, and Obama nominated him to the Supreme Court in 2016, but the R senate did not give him a hearing.  Garland was only nominated after the Georgia runoffs.  Some progressive groups want the senate to have hearings for Biden judicial nominees first, even though there are no Biden judicial nominees yet.

Senate Judiciary Committee hearings:

TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Breyer:  Justice Stephen Breyer is getting pressure from the left to step down so that President Biden can appoint a black woman to the Supreme Court.

Trump judges:  Reuters gives an overview of the impact that Trump appointees are having on the judiciary.

Federalist Society:  The Federalist Society is debating what to do in the wake of the Capital riot.  David Lat argues that it should take steps to separate itself from partisan politics.

Many judges have announced that they are taking senior status, mostly liberals who were waiting for president Biden's inauguration.  Only two are circuit court judges so far.

ED-NY: Roslynn Mauskopf (W) 2/1 (uscourts director)

ED-MI: Victoria Roberts (Clinton) 2/24 (senior)

2nd Circuit: Robert Katzmann (Clinton) 2/21 (senior)
ND-CA: William Alsup (Clinton) 1/21 (senior)

D-ID: B. Lynn Winmill (Clinton) 8/16 (senior)

D-MD: Hollander (Obama) TBD (senior)

D-MD: Blake (Clinton) 4/2 (senior)

SD-TX: Gilmore (Clinton) 1/2/22 (retire)

ND-OH: Polster 1/31 (senior)

ND-CA: Hamilton (Clinton) 2/1 (senior)

ND-CA: White (W) 2/1 (senior)

D-OR: Mosman (W) 12/27 (senior)

SD-FL: Ursula Ungaro (HW) 5/1 (senior)

D-SD: D. Viken (Obama) 10/01 (senior)

SD-CA: A. Battaglia (Obama) 3/31 (senior)

ED-WA: R. Peterson (Obama) 10/1 (senior)

10th Circuit: Carlos Lucero (Clinton) 2/1 (senior)
ND-OH: James Gwin (Clinton) 2/1 (senior)

2nd Circuit: Denny Chin (Obama) 6/1 (senior)

ED-PA: Timothy Savage (W) 3/1 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Gerrymandering:  Billy Corriher observes that house Ds have a majority thanks to D gerrymanders imposed by courts in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Alaska:  The Alaska Judicial Council released the names of the seven applicants for a seat on the Alaska Supreme Court.  Three of them, Superior Court Judges Dani Crosby, Jennifer Stuart Henderson and Yvonne Lamoureux, were finalists for the previous vacancy.

New Hampshire:  Governor Chris Sununu appointed Attorney General Gordon MacDonald, age 60, to be the next Chief Justice of the New Hampshire Supreme Court.  The Hampshire Supreme Court has 2 D and 2 R appointees, with one seat vacant for over one year.  Former Justice Robert Lynn retired on August 23, 2019, as he was age-limited.  Governor Chris Sununu nominated MacDonald in 2019, but the state Executive Council, with a 3-2 D majority, blocked the nomination.  The council, which now has a 4-1 R majority, confirmed MacDonald on January 22.

Oklahoma:  Oklahoma Supreme Court Justice Tom Colbert will retire on February 1.  He was appointed by D governor Brad Henry in 2004.  Gov. Kevin Stitt will appoint a successor from applicants screened by the Judicial Nominating Commission.  This will be his third appointment.  The court has 5 D and 4 R judges, but only three conservatives.

South Carolina:  The legislature is considering adding two more justices to the five-member court.  Justices are appointed by the legislature after being screened by a panel.  The proposal would have to be approved by the voters.  The current chief justice, Donald Beatty, is a D appointed by the legislature in 2007.

Numbers and Trivia:

With the end of the Trump presidency, here are the final numbers of Trump-appointed judges.  He appointed 226 total article 3 judges.

3 Supreme Court justices

54 appeals court judges (net 53)

174 district court judges (net 170)

55 are women (24%)

37 are non-White (16%)

He also appointed the following judges to other courts.

3 Court of International Trade

10 Court of Federal Claims

7 Tax Court

6 Court of Appeals for Veterans Claims

2 Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces

1 Court of Military Commission Review

Resources:
Bench Memos (National Review)
The Vetting Room

How Appealing
Twitter: FedJudges Senate Cloakroom
Senate Judiciary Committee
ABA Judicial Ratings
Wikipedia: US Appeals Courts Trump Judges
Senior Status Spreadsheet
Future Judicial Vacancies
BostonPatriot diaries: History Trump DC-5 6-11 9th
Ballotpedia--State Supreme Court Vacancies 2020 2021
The Supreme Courts
2020: March April May June July August September October Elections November December

2021: January

Is Peter Meijer Vulnerable in MI-3?

Of the ten house Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump, two are from Michigan--Fred Upton of the sixth district, and Peter Meijer of the third district.  Upton is likely to retire in 2022, and would be highly vulnerable if he didn't.  The third district is more complicated.

DEMOGRAPHICS OF MI-3

Understanding MI-3 requires understanding Dutch Reformed conservatives.  Around 100 years ago, many Dutch immigrants settled in West Michigan.  They were predominantly Reformed Christians (Calvinists), who emphasized hard work, frugality, and social conservatism.  They were natural Republicans.  The biggest denominations are the Mainline Reformed Church of America (RCA) and Christian Reformed Church (CRC).  The RCA has both liberal and conservative wings, with liberals more common on the east coast.

(President Trump once identified as an RCA member, attending a church led by Norman Vincent Peale, the author of  The Power of Positive Thinking, which borders on the prosperity gospel.  Trump later called himself a Presbyterian, the more common theological cousins of the Reformed church founded by Scottish Calvinists.)

The CRC is more conservative than the RCA.  It is headquartered in Grand Rapids, and Calvin College, its flagship educational institution, is located there.  The CRC has some liberal influences itself, often emanating from Calvin.  Senator Scott Brown, rep. Bill Huizinga, and former rep. Vern Ehlers are prominent members.  Several smaller Reformed denominations have split from the CRC, viewing it as too liberal.  The CRC (and the splinter denominations) have long supported Christian schools over public schools, and in recent decades, many Reformed Christians have embraced homeschooling.

The Reformed churches have tended to be skeptical about military engagements, and MI-3 has one of the more anti-war bases of R congressional districts.  The other counties in the district have more conventional Republicans, and Calhoun County (added in 2012) has a more working class demographic.

Today, I would divide the R base in MI-3 into four groups, along with typical representatives.

• Country-club moderates (Brian Ellis) centered in East Grand Rapids and upscale areas around Grand Rapids.
• Establishment conservatives (the DeVos family)
• Conservative/libertarian Trump sceptics (Justin Amash, Steven Johnson)
• Trump conservatives (Tom Norton).  The latter two groups were both active in the Tea Party movement, but separated over Trump.

I won't try to estimate the sizes of the four groups, except to say that establishment conservatives are definitely the largest.

POLITICAL HISTORY OF MI-3

The Kent County area was represented by Gerald Ford from 1948 until he became vice-president in 1973.  Ford was succeeded by democrat Richard Vander Veen (1974-1976), whose election was a major upset in the wake of the Watergate scandal.  He was succeeded by R prosecutor Harold Sawyer (1976-1984) and former Calvin College political science professor and state legislator Paul Henry (1984-1993).

Vern Ehlers represented the 3rd from 1993 to 2010.  Ehlers was previously a physics professor at Calvin College, and a state legislator.  Ehlers was fairly moderate, though strongly pro-life.  He won easily with the support of the moderates and establishment conservatives.

The DeVos family has had a major impact in the Michigan Republican Party, and particularly in MI-3.  In 1959, Rich DeVos co-founded Amway, a company that sells home products using multi-level marketing.  He became a billionaire and Republican mega-donor.  In the early 1980s, his son Dick DeVos worked with young state senators John Engler and Dick Posthumus to displace the allies of liberal governor Bill Milliken from control of the state GOP, resulting in a relatively conservative party.  The DeVos family continued to be prolific donors.  Betsy DeVos (wife of Dick) was MIGOP chair 1996-2000 and 2003-2005, and US Secretary of Education 2017-2021.

Justin Amash was elected to the Michigan state house in 2008.  With the rise of the Tea Party movement, local activists were unhappy with Ehlers, and the libertarian Amash challenged him in the 2010 primary.  Ehlers decided to retire.  Amash defeated several other candidates in the primary with the support of the DeVos family and Club for Growth.  While he was one of the most anti-establishment members of congress, he maintained the support of the DeVos family.

In 2014, Amash was challenged by Brian Ellis, a moderate.  Ellis had the support of the Chamber of Commerce and former rep Pete Hoekstra.  Amash won 57-43, with the help of the DeVos family and Club for Growth.

Amash became increasingly critical of President Trump, and in May 2019, the DeVos family announced that it would no longer support him.  He left the GOP in July, and later became a Libertarian.

Peter Meijer was elected in 2020.  He is a 33-year-old Army veteran and heir of the Meijer retail chain.  He ran a rather bland campaign, with the exception that he opposed military interventionism.  He had the backing of the DeVos family.  He won the primary with 50%, with state rep Lynn Afendoulis (establishment) getting 26%, and Tom Norton (super-Trumpy) getting 16%.  Meijer won a relatively narrow 53-47 victory over Hillary Scholten in the general.

FOUR QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE

Will Meijer face more than one challenger?  Tom Norton, a Trump die hard who was a Tea Party activist has already announced a primary challenge to Meijer.  Norton has a poor electoral track record, finishing fifth in primaries for state house in 2010 and 2014.  He also has a history of controversial statements.  Shortly after announcing his primary challenge of Amash, Norton "passed out press releases calling on the House to expel Amash for allegedly failing to represent constituents in a district that backed Trump."

Amash has said it’s his duty to uphold the U.S. Constitution. But the congressman's “first duty” is to represent constituents, and “he’s failing at that miserably,” Norton said.

Norton would struggle to gain much support beyond Trump conservatives, and Meijer would most likely beat him.  Defeating Meijer would require a more mainstream challenger who could attract at least part of the establishment along with Trump supporters.  But will such a challenger emerge?

Does Trump endorse a primary opponent?  It seems likely that he would, though a lot can happen in two years.  If there is more than one challenger, will the other(s) drop out?  Meijer would be more likely to win the primary if opposition to him is split.

Does the DeVos family continue to back Meijer?  Betsy DeVos recently resigned as Secretary of Education, harshly criticizing President Trump's role in inspiring the Capitol riot.  It seems likely that they will continue to back Meijer, but if not, his position would weaken.

How will redistricting change MI-3?  Michigan's congressional districts will be redrawn by an independent commission.  There will presumably be a district containing the bulk of Kent County where Meijer will run.  What else is attached will matter, though.  The current district contains several Trump-friendly rural counties.  If they are removed in favor of more of Kent County or part of Ottawa County, Meijer's chances will improve.

Peter Meijer is in for a tough fight.  The answers to the questions above will determine whether he survives.

6th District Committee Criticizes Upton Impeachment Vote

Republican leaders of the 6th District Committee and all six county GOP chairs in the district issued a statement criticizing Upton’s vote for impeachment of President Trump. While worded tactfully, this is still a big deal. As far as I know, none of them were anti-Upton before now, and most were slavishly loyal. In addition, the Allegan GOP voted to censure Upton.

About a third of the R base in MI-6 has never liked Upton, and he has periodically faced primary challengers.

• 1990: defeated state senator Ed Fredericks 63-37
• 2002: defeated state senator Dale Shugars 66-32
• 2010: defeated state rep Jack Hoogendyk 57-43
• 2012: defeated Jack Hoogendyk 67-33
• 2014: defeated Jim Bussler 71-29
• 2020: defeated Elena Oelke 62-38

Oelke's strong performance was a surprise, since she had little fundraising or institutional support.  I don’t think Upton would get a majority in the 2022 primary. I’m almost certain that he will retire in 2022.