Wednesday, July 31, 2024

August 2024 Judiciary News

Supreme Court:

Overview:  The court concluded its term, issuing many ruling that did not fall strictly along ideological lines.  This refutes the left's lies and hysteria about the court.

Presidential immunity:  The court ruled 6-3 that the president has immunity for 'official acts', but does not have immunity for unofficial acts.  Lower courts will have to determine which of President Trump's acts fall into each category.

Chevron deference:  The court overturned Chevron deference, where courts defer to agencies' interpretations of federal regulations, even when those interpretations change radically in new administrations. (See also Ed Whelan.)

Homeless:  A 6-3 ruling overturned a 9th circuit ruling that people have a right to camp in public.  The ruling had made it impossible to remove homeless encampments.

Social media:  The court ruled 6-3 (with liberals in the majority) that the government can pressure social media companies to censor or hide content, so long as the pressure is sufficiently vague.

2nd Amendment:  The court ruled 8-1 that someone subject to a domestic-violence restraining can be prevented from owning a firearm.  The ruling seems likely to be cited by lower courts to justify many other gun control laws.

Legitimacy:  The media is engaging in concern trolling about declining trust in the Supreme Court.  Polling shows that this has occurred entirely among democrats, not Republicans or independents.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Vance:  Vice presidential nominee JD Vance and his wife Usha both graduated from Yale Law School.  JD clerked for David Bunning (ED-KY), while Usha clerked for Amul Thapar (ED-KY), Brett Kavanaugh (DC Circuit), and Chief Justice John Roberts.

4th Circuit:  Biden nominated NC solicitor general Ryan Park to the 4th Circuit.  Senators Tillis and Budd are not only opposing the nomination, but say that "the White House has already been informed they do not have the votes for confirmation".

SD-NY:  The Senate Judiciary Committee rejected the nomination of Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn 11-10 after Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) voted no.  Netburn became controversial after Senator Ted Cruz (R) challenged her about a ruling putting a (trans) man in a women's prison.

D-OR:  Carrie Severino exposes the radical record of Mustafa Kasubhai, including support for Marxism and rioters.  In June, a vote to advance his nomination was pulled due to lack of votes.

Kennedy:  Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) grilled nominees Karla Campbell (6th Circuit) and Julia Lipez (1st Circuit) on ties to radical groups and soft-on-crime rulings.

Nominations:
ND-NY: Anthony Brindisi-judge (NY Court of Claims), US House (18-20), state rep (10-18)
MD-PA: Keli Neary-Pennsylvania Deputy Attorney General
ND-GA: Tiffany Johnson-AUSA (ND-GA)

The Federal Judiciary:

Reform:  President Biden endorsed term limits for Supreme Court justices and a binding ethics code.  The term limits proposal would effectively remove justices Thomas, Roberts, and Alito from the court, while the ethics code would subject the justices to endless complaints by activists.

Reform:  Adam White, a member of Biden's commission on court reform, points out many problems with Biden's plan.  He also noted that Biden once criticized similar plans.

2nd Circuit:  David Lat reveals that judge Sarah Merriam was the subject of a complaint due to an ‘overly harsh’ management style.  However, he offers some reasons to doubt the complaint.

Federal Circuit:  The Federal Circuit is seeking to extend the suspension of Judge Pauline Newman due to alleged disability.  Meanwhile, Newman is appealing the dismissal of her suit against the Federal Circuit by Judge Christopher "Casey" Cooper (D-DC).  Critics claim she is unable to fulfill her duties, but supporters say she is being mistreated due to her frequent dissents.

D-AK:  Joshua Kindred resigned suddenly on July 8.  The Judicial Council of the Ninth Circuit reported that Kindred engaged in judicial misconduct, creating a sexually hostile workplace for clerks, by having an inappropriate sexual relationship with a clerk, and lying to investigators.  He was appointed by Trump in 2020.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 73 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past two months are listed below.
MD-PA: Christopher Connor (W) 1/17/25 (retired)
D-NM: William Johnson (W) 1/24/25 (senior)
SD-TX: Andrew Hanen (W) 1/2/25 (senior)
D-AK: Joshua Kindred (Trump) 7/8/24 (resigned)
ND-NY: Glenn Suddaby (W) 9/1/24 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Maryland:  Governor Wes Moore (D) nominated Prince George’s County Circuit Court judge Peter Killough to the Maryland Supreme Court.  He has been a judge since 2018, and previously worked for the Maryland Attorney General.  The other applicants were judges Krystal Alves, Tiffany Anderson, and William Snoddy.  Justice Michele Hotten was age-limited on April 20.  

Michigan:  Nominees for Michigan Supreme Court will be decided at state conventions on August 24.
Bolden seat:  Former state rep Kyra Bolden (D) was appointed in 2023 to complete the term of Justice Bridget Mary McCormack.  She is running for the partial (4-year) term.  Matt DePerno, a Stop the Steal attorney who lost the 2022 attorney general race by 8.6% and is now facing charges for unlawful access to voting machines, is seeking the R nomination.  Also running are Branch County circuit court judge Patrick William O’Grady and Detroit attorney Alexandria Taylor.
Viviano seat:  Justice David Viviano (R), appointed in 2013, is retiring.  State rep Andrew Fink and Court of Appeals judge Mark Boonstra are seeking the R nomination, and law professor Kimberly Ann Thomas is seeking the D nomination.

Montana:  The primary election for Montana Supreme Court was held on June 4.
Chief:  Broadwater County attorney Cory Swanson (R) and Jerry Lynch (D supported) move on the the general election.  The results were Swanson 46%, Lynch 37%, Doug Marshall 16%.
Sandefur seat:  Flathead County District Court Judge Dan Wilson (R supported) and 7th Judicial District Judge Katherine Bidegaray (D supported) move on the the general election. The results were Bidegaray 48%, Wilson 35%, Jerry O'Neil (R) 17%.

New Jersey:  Justice Lee Solomon will be age-limited on August 17.  He is a Republican appointed in 2014 by Chris Christie (R).  Governor Phil Murphy (D) nominated John Jay Hoffman to the seat.  He is an independent who was acting attorney general of New Jersey under Christie 2013-16.  He has been the general counsel of Rutgers University since then.

History:

On Ed Whelan's Substack, "Confirmation Tales", recent posts deal with George W. Bush's nominations of Sam Alito and lower court judges.
Resources:
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Saturday, July 27, 2024

July 2024 Michigan State House Fundraising

July 26 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Here are summaries of the total amount raised (all cycle) in competitive Michigan state house districts.  Totals include in-kind contributions.  Candidates who filed reporting waivers are generally omitted.  These numbers come from the SOS campaign finance reports.  XX means the report has yet to be filed.

13. (D) Xiong 173K Steenland 44K (R) Singer XX
22. (D) Koleszar 217K (R) Stathakis 131K (100K self)
27. (D) Churches 301K (R) Dill 15K Linting 23K
28. (D) Robinson 121K (R) Thompson 99K
29. (D) Wright 23K (R) DeSana 24K 
31. (D) Miller 350K (R) Biniecki 55K
35. (R) Matthew 79K (67K self) Stockford 4K Wortz 53K
36. (R) Carra 22K Perez 8K Malmborg 2K
38. (D) Andrews 324K (R) Whiteford 163K (30K self) Lucas 285K (186K self)
40. (D) Longjohn 109K Brayton 4K (R) Sackett 3K
42. (D) Marsman 68K (R) Hall 300K Cutshaw 8K
44. (D) Haadsma 303K (R) Friskie 76K Harris 8K Shotts XX
46. (D) Mahoney 78K (R) Schmaltz 113K
48. (D) Conlin 327K (R) Beliger 3K Ignatowski 15K
50. (R) Bezotte 50K Lyke 16K (7K self) Woolford 117K (29K self) Restuccia XX
51. (R) Maddock 16K Zeigler 26K (15K self)
54. (D) Martini 219K (R) Steele 106K 
55. (D) Harrold 78K Hawkins 59K (47K self) (R) Tisdell 106K
57. (D) Farooqi 68K (R) Kuhn 77K 
58. (D) Shannon 242K (R) Robinson 30K
60. (R) Wozniak 32K Zott 30K (17K self)
61. (D) Mentzer 240K (R) Cleary 8K Grossenbacher 2K Wojtowicz 3K
62. (D) Woodman 22K (R) St. Germaine 28K
64. (R) Baldwin XX Eisen 8K Pavlov 27K (20K self)
66. (R) Schriver 64K LeVasseur 90K (81K self)
68. (D) Sneller 39K (R) Martin 37K
71. (R) BeGole 153K Rathbun 45K
76. (D) Witwer 273K (R) Shaver 28K
78. (R) Johnsen 134K Rocha 41K (14K self)
83. (D) Fitzgerald 274K (R) Brann 41K
84. (D) Glanville 292K (R) Wetzel 78K
86. (D) Klomparens 35K (R) De Boer 77K
92. (D) Odykirk 8K (R) Neyer 159K
96. (D) Howard 26K (R) Beson 53K
103. (D) Coffia 407K (R) Garcia XX Kniss 11K Trombley 80K
105. (R) Borton 41K Marcus 15K (13K self)
106. (R) Cavitt 125K Smalenberg 52K
107. (R) Fairbairn 132K (63K self) Friske 68K
109. (D) Hill 327K (R) Bohnak 54K Mason 41K (34K self) Wagner 7K (5K self)
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Wednesday, July 17, 2024

2024 Kalamazoo County Commission Races

This post was last updated August 9, 2024.

Democrats won a 6-3 majority on the Kalamazoo County Commission in 2022, which was a bad year for Republicans.  The Kalamazoo redistricting commission, which is dominated by D countywide elected officials, drew a new district map that is a soft D gerrymander, which is likely to produce 6 D and 3 R seats in most years.  No commissioners are retiring this year.

The following post has detailed descriptions of the districts and their political leanings. The numbers given are the 2022 election result and percentages for Trump (2016), O'Brien (2018), Trump (2020), and Balkema (2020).  Incumbents are marked below with asterisks.


List of Kalamazoo County Candidates

District 1 [N Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
0-100 T16 20.3, O18 21.3, T20 21.5, B20 28.6
Democrat: Tami Rey*
Republican: Douglas Olivares
This is the majority minority district.  Property manager Tami Rey won this seat in 2020 after Stephanie Moore vacated it for an unsuccessful race for state house.

District 2 [Westwood, WMU] Safe Democrat
0-100 T16 30.3, O18 30.2, T20 26.7, B20 34.5
Democrat: Jen Strebs*
Republican: Gary Mitchell
This district includes the WMU area of Kalamazoo.  Kalamazoo Township Board member Jen Strebs defeated longtime commissioner Michael Seals (10-20) in the 2020 D primary.  Mitchell was a 2022 state house candidate.  Mitchell defeated Andrew Smith in the R primary.

District 3 [SW, SE Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
22-78 T16 24.7, O18 25.2, T20 22, B20 31.4
Democrat: Monteze Morales*
Republican: Ron Austin
Monteze Morales was appointed in June 2021 to replace Zac Bauer, who resigned after being appointed in 2019.  She previously lost the 2020 D primary to Bauer.  Morales was elected to this district after Tracy Hall retired in 2022.

District 4 [W Portage] Safe Democrat
42-58 T16 44.7, O18 47, T20 39.9, B20 49.5
Democrat: Abigail Wheeler*
Republican: Jason Mikkelborg
Portage used to be R territory, but it moved left under President Trump.  Abigail Wheeler was a Mattawan trustee who lost a race for state house in 2020, and then moved to Portage.  She succeeded Michael Quinn in 2022.

District 5 [E Portage] Safe Democrat
43-57 T16 43.3, O18 45.1, T20 39.9, B20 48.3
Democrat: John Patrick Taylor*
Republican: none
Portage used to be R territory, but it moved left under President Trump.  Meredith Place (18-20), the wife of longtime commissioner John Patrick Taylor (02-16), was elected Kalamazoo County Clerk in 2020.  Fran Melgar was elected in 2020 and retired in 2022.  Taylor was elected here after previously representing the city of Kalamazoo.

District 6 [Comstock, Pavilion, Brady, Climax, Wakeshma] Safe Republican
57-43 T16 56.2, O18 57.2, T20 53.4, B20 61.1
Democrat: none
Republican: John Gisler*
Commissioner John Gisler (10-12, 14-P) has represented the southern townships for the last decade.

District 7 [Cooper, Richland, Ross, Charleston, Galesburg, and Parchment] Safe Republican
55-45 T16 58.3, O18 58.4, T20 55.8, B20 62.2
Democrat: Andy Davis
Republican: Jeff Heppler*
Heppler (02-16, 20-P) lost a race for sheriff in 2016.  He defeated appointed incumbent Jen Aniano (D) to return in 2020.

District 8 [Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] Safe Republican
53.7-46.3 T16 56.3, O18 58.3, T20 51.2, B20 61.1
Democrat: Matthew Miller
Republican: Wendy Mazer*
Texas Township Trustee Wendy Mazer, a solid conservative, was elected in 2022.

District 9 [Oshtemo, Alamo] Lean Democrat
44.3-55.7 T16 43.7, O18 45.9, T20 41.5, B20 50.0
Democrat: Dale Deleeuw*
Republican: Nicole Wagner
Former police officer Dale Deleeuw was elected in 2022.  He succeeded Dale Shugars, who did not seek reelection.
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Thursday, July 11, 2024

2024 Michigan Congressional Races

This post was last updated on August 10, 2024.

Michigan's 13 congressional districts are up for election in 2024.  Michigan's congressional map was drawn by Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew some poor lines, and skewed districts 3 and 8 to the left in the name of partisan fairness, but also created districts (7 and 10) that are winnable for each side.

Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Approved


The map above is from the page at RRH Elections linked below, which also has individual district maps.


Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and 538.

Michigan Congressional Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan Congressional Map-538

There are two open seats (7 and 8).  There will also be several interesting general election races.  Consider the districts in detail.

The election data for each district is the R candidates for 2022 congressional results (R-D), President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)

District 1  (Upper Peninsula, northern Lower Peninsula) Safe R
60-37 P16: 59 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 59
Retired general Jack Bergman was first elected in 2016. He broke a term limits pledge in 2022, and is running again this year.  When he does retire, a troll (below the bridge) candidate may finally win the seat.  Josh Saul is also seeking the R nomination.  Callie Barr is the D nominee, defeating Bob Lorinser, the 2022 D nominee.

District 2  (West Michigan coast, central MI) Safe R
64-34 P16: 61 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 63
John Moolenaar ran here in 2022 after previously representing a district based in Midland.  Michael Lynch is the D nominee.

District 3 (Grand Rapids, north Ottawa, Muskegon) Likely D
42-55 P16: 46.6 G18: 44.9 AG18: 47.8 P20: 44.8
Old MI-2 was split into three pieces.  23% went to new 2, 51% went to new 3, and 26% went to new 4.  The core of old 3 in Kent County was merged with half of old 2.  New 3 dropped heavily R rural Kent, Barry, Ionia, and Calhoun.  It added Kentwood (D), Wyoming (lean R), N Ottawa (R), and the city of Muskegon (D), moving about 6% left.  This is a pro-D gerrymander in the name of "partisan fairness".
Attorney Hillary Scholten (D) won in 2022 after losing by 6% in 2020.  
Attorney Paul Hudson (R), who previously ran for MI Supreme Court in 2022, is the R nominee.  He defeated Michael Markey 55-45.

District 4 (Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Holland) Safe R
54-42 P16: 51.6 G18: 49.4 AG18: 52.3 P20: 51
Ottawa county congressman Bill Huizenga ran here in 2022.  He eventually won the Trump endorsement, and incumbent Fred Upton, who had voted for impeachment, decided to retire.  Engineer and Ottawa County GOP chair Brendan Muir is also seeking the R nomination on an antiestablishment platform.  The D nominee is lawyer Jessica Swartz.

District 5 (South-central Michigan, lower tier) Safe R
62-35 P16: 60 G18: 55 AG18: 58 P20: 61
Republican Tim Walberg has become increasingly entrenched since his comeback in 2010, and he is now the longest-serving house member from Michigan.  Libbi Urban is the D nominee.

District 6 (Washtenaw, plus south and west Wayne) Safe D
34-66 P16: 37 G18: 35 AG18: 36 P20: 36
In 2014, democrat Debbie Dingell easily replaced her husband John Dingell in Congress after his 58 years (!) in office.  Debbie Dingell moved here from Dearborn, since she represented the bulk of this territory.  Heather Smiley is the R nominee.

District 7 (Ingham, Livingston, Eaton, Clinton, Schiawassee) Tossup
46.3-51.7 P16: 48.9 G18: 44.2 AG18: 48 P20: 48.7
This is a highly competitive district containing Lansing and surrounding counties.  It contains the core of old 8 (Ingham and Livingston), which was drawn to lean R.  It added lean R areas from old 4 and 7, while losing R (but D-trending) areas in Oakland.  Former DOD official Elissa Slotkin (D), who was elected 2018, is retiring to run for senate.  The R candidate is conservative state senator (18-22) and veteran Tom Barrett, who lost a close race against Slotkin in 2022.

District 8 (Genesee, Saginaw, Bay, Midland) Lean D
43-53 P16: 46.9 G18: 42.5 AG18: 45.8 P20: 48.2
This succeeds old 5, adding the rest of Saginaw County and the city of Midland.  While the district moved about 1% right, this is basically the best configuration Ds short of adding Lansing to the district.  This is another example of gerrymandering by the commission.  Former Genesee Treasurer Dan Kildee (D), who succeeded his uncle Dale Kildee in 2012, is retiring.  
State senator Kristen McDonald Rivet was elected to a swingy district containing the tri-cities (Saginaw, Midland, Bay City) in 2022.  She is the wife of state rep (98-04) and Bay County Drain Commissioner (04-20) Joe Rivet, and has the bulk of D establishment support.  She defeated Flint mayor (87-91) Matt Collier and MSU board member (14-P) Pamela Pugh for the D nomination.
The R nominee is television anchor and Trump USCIS official Paul Junge (R), who lost old 8 to Elissa Slotkin by 4% in 2020, moved here and lost the general in 2022.  He won 75%, defeating Dow executive Mary Draves and Anthony Hudson.

District 9 (The Thumb, N Oakland, N Macomb) Safe R
64-33 P16: 64 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 64
Self-funding businesswoman Lisa McClain (R) was elected in 2020.  Clinton St Mosley is the D nominee.

District 10 (S Macomb, Rochester Hills) Lean R
48.8-48.3 P16: 50.4 G18: 44.4 AG18: 46.6 P20: 49.8
Veteran and businessman John James, the R US Senate nominee in 2018 and 2020, easily won the R nomination in 2022 and barely won the general election.
Former prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga, who was the 2022 D nominee, won the D nomination again at age 77.  He defeated former state house candidate Emily Busch, state board of education member (18-P) Tiffany Tilley, and financial adviser Diane Young.

District 11 (Central Oakland) Safe D
39-61 P16: 41 G18: 38 AG18: 39 P20: 39
Businesswoman Haley Stevens (D) was elected in 2018, and defeated fellow incumbent Andy Levin in 2022.  Nick Somberg won the R nomination.

District 12 (W Detroit, Southfield, Livonia, Dearborn, Westland) Safe D
26-71 P16: 25 G18: 22 AG18: 24 P20: 25
The commission decided to reduce MI from two black-majority districts to none, with both new 12 and 13 now about 46% black.  New 12 combines parts of old 13 and 14.  Former state rep. (08-14) Rashida Tlaib (D) was elected to a district based in eastern Detroit in 2018.  After incumbent Brenda Lawrence announced her retirement, Tlaib announced that she would run here.  
Tlaib is a Muslim member of "the squad" who has made national news due to her anti-Semitic remarks and sympathy for Hamas.  While there was talk of a primary challenge by a more mainstream D in a district with a significant black population, no challenger made the ballot.
James Hooper won the R nomination.

District 13 (E Detroit, Downriver, Romulus) Safe D
24-71 P16: 23 G18: 21 AG18: 22 P20: 25
This district was vacated by Rashida Tlaib in 2022.  State rep (20-22) Shri Thanedar, a wealthy Indian businessman who moved to north Detroit, won an 11-way primary in 2022.  Thanedar won with 28% to 24% for state senator Adam Hollier.  The local D establishment is unhappy with Thanedar, in part because he isn't black.  Hollier ran for the seat this year and attracted substantial support, but was removed from the ballot due to significant fraud on his nominating petitions.  Thanedar defeated former state rep (2000-06) and Detroit City Council member (21-P) Mary Waters and Shakira Hawkins 54-34-11.
Martell Blivings is again the R nominee after losing in 2022.
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