Wednesday, October 02, 2024

October 2024 Judiciary News

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Biden nominees:  Democrats are hoping that the Biden administration will surpass the 234 judges appointed by President Trump.  Biden could reach 241 judges if all his nominees are confirmed.  However, some nominees like Adeel Mangi and Sarah Netburn may not have the votes to be confirmed.  Also, Biden will not reach the 54 appeals court judges appointed by Trump.

Harris:  Carrie Severino reviews Senator Kamala Harris' absurd attacks on Trump's judicial nominees, including attacking Catholics' memberships in the Knights of Columbus.

4th Circuit: Carrie Severino lays out the extreme record of NC solicitor general Ryan Park.  His nomination is stalled, as senators Tillis and Budd are not only opposing the nomination, but say that "the White House has already been informed they do not have the votes for confirmation".

Nominations:
TBA

The Federal Judiciary:

Judgeships:  The Senate unanimously passed a bill to create 66 more federal judgeships.  The House has yet to take up the bill.  A breakdown of where and when the judgeships would be created is in this table.

Retirement:  This NBC News article frets that more federal judges aren't retiring.

Reform:  Justice Kagan has endorsed President Biden's "ethics reform" plan for the Supreme Court.  The term limits proposal would effectively remove justices Thomas, Roberts, and Alito from the court, while the ethics code would subject the justices to endless complaints by activists.

Threats:  Carrie Severino notes the threats from the left against conservative justices.  The mainstream media gives little attention to these threats.

5th Circuit:  Carrie Severino disputes leftist claims that the conservative 5th Circuit has an unusually high reversal rate compared to other circuit courts.

Federal Circuit:  The Federal Circuit has extended the suspension of Judge Pauline Newman for another year due to alleged disability.  Critics claim she is unable to fulfill her duties, but supporters say she is being mistreated due to her frequent dissents.

D-AK:  The US Judicial Conference has recommended impeaching former judge Joshua Kindred despite the fact that he has already resigned due to a sex scandal.  It is disputed whether officials can be impeached if they have already left office, but impeachment could be used to bar Kindred from holding future office.  This seems largely symbolic, as a US Senate that voted to bar him from office would be unlikely to confirm him to office.

WD-TX:  Josh Blackman details questionable behavior by Judge David Ezra regarding a case on securing Texas' border.  Ezra was appointed to D-HI in 1988, but since taking senior status in 2012 has been assigned to WD-TX.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 66 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past two months are listed below.
D-KS: Daniel Crabtree (Obama) 8/11/25 (senior)
ED-LA: Lance Africk (W) 10/1/2024 (senior)
SD-TX: Lee Rosenthal (HW) 12/1/2024 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Alaska:  Chief Justice Peter Maassen will be age-limited on January 14, 2025.  He was appointed to the court in 2012, and became chief in 2023.  Seven candidates have applied for the position, all female.

Arizona:  Justice Robert Brutinel will retire on October 31.  He is 66 and was appointed by Jan Brewer (R) in 2010.  Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) will appoint his replacement.

Connecticut:  Governor Ned Lamont (D) has nominated Justice Raheem Mullins to replace Chief Justice Richard Robinson, who retired on September 6.  Mullins was nominated by Dannel Malloy (D) in 2017.  No nominee has been announced to replace Mullins.

Michigan:  Nominees for Michigan Supreme Court were decided at state conventions on August 24.
Bolden seat:  Former state rep Kyra Bolden (D) was appointed in 2023 to complete the term of Justice Bridget Mary McCormack.  She is running for the partial (4-year) term.  Branch County circuit court judge Patrick William O’Grady won the R nomination.
Viviano seat:  Justice David Viviano (R), appointed in 2013, is retiring.  State rep Andrew Fink won the R nomination.  Law professor Kimberly Ann Thomas is the D nominee.

Montana:  The Montana Supreme Court is attempting to punish AG Austin Knudsen for representing the legislature in its investigation into misconduct in the judiciary.

Nebraska:  Chief Justice Michael Heavican will retire on October 31.  He was appointed by Dave Heineman (R) in 2006.  Governor Jim Pillen (R) will get his first appointment to the court.

New Hampshire:  Justice Hantz Marconi was placed on administrative leave in late July.  Her husband Geno Marconi has been on leave from the New Hampshire Port Authority since April.  No explanation has been given for the leave.

Numbers and Trivia:

5th Circuit:  As of October 4, the new chief judge of the 5th Circuit will be Jennifer Elrod, who was appointed by W in 2007.  She replaces Priscilla Richman, who was appointed by W in 2005.  The Presidents who appointed chief judges of the 13 appeals courts are W (2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, Fed), and Obama (1, 4, 9, DC).

History:

On Ed Whelan's Substack, "Confirmation Tales", recent posts deal with George W. Bush's nominations of lower court judges.

Resources:

Sunday, August 11, 2024

2024 Michigan Primary Election Results

2024 Michigan Primary Election Results 

US Senate:
(R) Rogers 64 Amash 15 O'Donnell 12 Pensler 9
(D) Slotkin 76 Hill 24

Congress:
3. (R) Hudson 55 Markey 45
4. (R) Huizenga 73 Muir 27
8. (R) Junge 75 Draves 15 Hudson 10
   (D) Rivet 53 Collier 26 Pugh 20
10. (D) Marlinga 49 Young 25 Tilley 13 Busch 13
13. (D) Thanedar 54 Waters 34 Hawkins 11
There will again be no black Ds from MI in Congress next year.

State House:
3. (D) Farhat 49 Abdulmalik 40
5. (D) Weiss 48 Bailey 40
13. (D) Xiong 71 Steenland 19
14. (D) McFall 71 Fouts 29
22. (R) Stathakis 71 Charette 29
27. (R) Linting 71 Dill 21
35. (R) Wortz 52 Stockford 30 Matthew 18
36. (R) Carra 69 Perez 20 Malmborg 11 Big improvement by Carra after a weak showing in 2022.
38. (R) Whiteford 56 Lucas 44
39. (R) Wendzel 72 Overton 28
40. (D) Longjohn 70 Brayton 30 The real D defeats the party switcher.
42. (R) Hall 65 Cutshaw 35
44. (R) Frisbie 77 Harris 15 Shotts 8
48. (R) Ignatowski 68 Beliger 32
50. (R) Woolford 34 Bezotte 30 Restucchia 22 Lyke 14 Scandal-adjacent incumbent goes down.
51. (R) Maddock 59 Zeigler 41 Some voters may be tiring of Maddock.
55. (D) Harrold 53 Hawkins 47
57. (D) Farooqi 67 Fox 22
58. (R) Robinson 68 Goodrich 32
59. (R) Wozniak 74 Zott 26
61. (R) Wojtowicz 45 Cleary 40 Grossenbacher 15
64. (R) Pavlov 32 Baldwin 30 Eisen 29 No comeback for Eisen.
66. (R) Schriver 66 Levasseur 34 Schriver's controversial comments didn't hurt much.
67. (R) Green 78 Cross 13 Marden 9
70. (D) Neeley 61 Clack 39
71. (R) BeGole 67 Rathbun 33
76. (R) Shaver 85 Jones 15
78. (R) Johnsen 72 Rocha 28
84. (R) Wetzel 87 June 13
103. (R) Trombley 63 Kniss 31 Garcia 6
106. (R) Cavitt 59 Smalenberg 41
107. (R) Fairbairn 63 Friske 37 Scandal-adjacent incumbent goes down.
109. (R) Bohnak 75 Mason 15 Wagner 10 (D) Hill 80 Girard 16 Finally a different nominee in this district.

Kalamazoo County Judge:
Morse 53 Willis 28 Camfield 19 Morse and Willis move on to November.

Saturday, August 10, 2024

2024 Michigan General Election Races

This post was last updated August 26, 2024.

Michigan's presidential electors, congressional seats, and the entire state house will be up for election November 2024.

President: Tossup
Michigan's presidential primary was on February 27.  Former president Trump won the primary with 68% to 27% for Nikki Haley.  Joe Biden won the Michigan D primary with 81%.  He was forced out of the race, and Vice President Kamala Harris was selected to be the D nominee.  Michigan was close in 2016 and 2020, and will be a battleground again in 2024.

US Senate: Tossup
Democrat Senator Debbie Stabenow is retiring.  Congresswoman (18-24) Elissa Slotkin, who represents a Lansing-area district, won the D primary with 76% to actor Hill Harper's 24%.

Former congressman (00-14) Mike Rogers, who represented the same Lansing-area district as Slotkin, won the R primary with 64% thanks in part to Trump's endorsement.  Also running were libertarian former rep (10-20) Justin Amash with 15%, Sherry O'Donnell with 12%, and businessman Sandy Pensler (who dropped out) with 9%.

Michigan Supreme Court Lean D/Tossup
Nominees for Michigan Supreme Court will be decided at state conventions on August 24.
Bolden seat:  Former state rep Kyra Bolden (D) was appointed in 2023 to complete the term of Justice Bridget Mary McCormack.  She is running for the partial (4-year) term.  Branch County circuit court judge Patrick William O’Grady is the R nominee.
Viviano seat:  Justice David Viviano (R), appointed in 2013, is retiring.  State rep Andrew Fink defeated Court of Appeals judge Mark Boonstra for the R nomination  Law professor Kimberly Ann Thomas is the D nominee.

Other Statewide Offices
Two seats on the state Board of Education and boards of trustees of U of M, MSU, and WSU will be up for election.  Out of 8 seats, Republicans won 5 in 2016, 0 in 2018, 3 in 2020, and 0 in 2022.  The candidates are as follows (incumbents are marked with *).
State Board of Education:
Republicans:  Tom McMillin *, Nikki Snyder *
Democrats:  Theodore “Ted” Jones and Adam Zemke
UM Board of Regents:
Republicans:  Sevag Vartanian, Carl Meyers
Democrats:  Denise Illitch *, Shauna Ryder Diggs
MSU Board of Trustees:
Republicans:  Mike Balow, July Maday
Democrats:  Rebecca Bahar Cook, Thomas Stallworth
WSU Board of Governors:
Republicans:  Michael Busuito *, Sunny Reddy
Democrats:  Mark Gaffney *, Rasha Demashkieh

Ballot Propositions
At present, no initiatives have qualified for the ballot.

Michigan Congressional Seats
Democrats won a 7-6 majority in Michigan's congressional delegation in 2022, after a commission gerrymandered the districts.  Districts 7 and 8 and open, and Republicans will try to win both districts. Ds will try to win the 10th district of Republican John James.  The post below examines these races in detail.

2024 Michigan Congressional Races

Michigan House
All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives are up for election. Democrats won a 56-54 majority in 2022.  There will be 8 open seats.  Both parties have potential targets to pickup.
2024 Michigan State House Races

40th District (Portage, Oshtemo) Safe democrat
Incumbent Christine Morse (D) is retiring this year to seek a local judgeship.  Dr. Matt Longjohn, who was the D nominee for congress in 2018, won the D nomination.  He defeated Lisa Brayton.  The R candidate is Kalamazoo GOP chair Kelly Sackett, who lost by 17% in 2022.
41st District (Kalamazoo City) Safe democrat
D county commissioner (12-20) Julie Rogers was elected in 2020.  The R nominee is Terry Haines.
42nd District (E Kalamazoo, Plainwell) Safe Republican
Matt Hall was first elected in 2018, defeating a moderate incumbent, and is now the house R leader.  He moved to Kalamazoo County from Calhoun County after being put in the same district as Sarah Lightner (R) of Jackson County.  He defeated trucking company owner Rich Cutshaw 65-35 in the R primary.  The D nominee is Austin Marsman.
44th District (Battle Creek, Albion) Tossup
This district was drawn in 2012 as a gerrymander to put the most D areas of Calhoun in one district to protect then-speaker Jase Bolger (R) in a neighboring district.  Incredibly, the redistricting commission maintained this gerrymander.  County commissioner Jim Haadsma (D) was elected to this open seat in 2018. County commissioner Steve Frisbie won the R nomination with 77% against Alexander Harris and Jim Shotts.

Kalamazoo Countywide Offices
All six countywide offices are up for election. Republicans hold one of six offices.

Sheriff: Safe democrat
Democrat Richard Fuller was first elected in 2008.  The R nominee is James Charon.
Prosecutor: Safe democrat
Democrat former assistant prosecutor Jeffrey Getting, who was first elected in 2012, is unopposed.
Clerk: Safe democrat
Democrat county commissioner (18-20) Meredith Place was elected in 2020.  The R nominee is Kathleen Olmstead.
Treasurer: Likely democrat
D real estate agent Thomas Whitener was elected in 2020, defeating R incumbent Mary Balkema.  He has been accused of incompetence in office.  The R nominee is former state senator (94-02), state rep (90-94) and county commissioner Dale Shugars.
Drain Commissioner: Safe democrat
Soil Erosion and Sedimentation Control agent Jason Wiersma was elected in 2020.
Surveyor: Safe democrat
Republican Bill Hahn was first elected in 2008, and has been unopposed in each election since then.  He is seeking reelection as a D, and is again unopposed.  The position is unpaid, and its holder must be a licensed surveyor.

9th Circuit Court Judge
This is a newly created seat.  In the nonpartisan primary, state rep (20-24) Christine Morse (D) got 53%, conservative attorney Mariko Willis got 28%, and Angelique Camfield got 19%.  Morse and Willis advance to the general election in November.

Kalamazoo County Commission
All 9 seats on the Kalamazoo County Commission will be up for election. Ds hold a 6-3 majority. There are no open seats and none are likely to be competitive.

2024 Kalamazoo County Commission Races

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

August 2024 Judiciary News

Supreme Court:

Overview:  The court concluded its term, issuing many ruling that did not fall strictly along ideological lines.  This refutes the left's lies and hysteria about the court.

Presidential immunity:  The court ruled 6-3 that the president has immunity for 'official acts', but does not have immunity for unofficial acts.  Lower courts will have to determine which of President Trump's acts fall into each category.

Chevron deference:  The court overturned Chevron deference, where courts defer to agencies' interpretations of federal regulations, even when those interpretations change radically in new administrations. (See also Ed Whelan.)

Homeless:  A 6-3 ruling overturned a 9th circuit ruling that people have a right to camp in public.  The ruling had made it impossible to remove homeless encampments.

Social media:  The court ruled 6-3 (with liberals in the majority) that the government can pressure social media companies to censor or hide content, so long as the pressure is sufficiently vague.

2nd Amendment:  The court ruled 8-1 that someone subject to a domestic-violence restraining can be prevented from owning a firearm.  The ruling seems likely to be cited by lower courts to justify many other gun control laws.

Legitimacy:  The media is engaging in concern trolling about declining trust in the Supreme Court.  Polling shows that this has occurred entirely among democrats, not Republicans or independents.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Vance:  Vice presidential nominee JD Vance and his wife Usha both graduated from Yale Law School.  JD clerked for David Bunning (ED-KY), while Usha clerked for Amul Thapar (ED-KY), Brett Kavanaugh (DC Circuit), and Chief Justice John Roberts.

4th Circuit:  Biden nominated NC solicitor general Ryan Park to the 4th Circuit.  Senators Tillis and Budd are not only opposing the nomination, but say that "the White House has already been informed they do not have the votes for confirmation".

SD-NY:  The Senate Judiciary Committee rejected the nomination of Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn 11-10 after Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) voted no.  Netburn became controversial after Senator Ted Cruz (R) challenged her about a ruling putting a (trans) man in a women's prison.

D-OR:  Carrie Severino exposes the radical record of Mustafa Kasubhai, including support for Marxism and rioters.  In June, a vote to advance his nomination was pulled due to lack of votes.

Kennedy:  Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) grilled nominees Karla Campbell (6th Circuit) and Julia Lipez (1st Circuit) on ties to radical groups and soft-on-crime rulings.

Nominations:
ND-NY: Anthony Brindisi-judge (NY Court of Claims), US House (18-20), state rep (10-18)
MD-PA: Keli Neary-Pennsylvania Deputy Attorney General
ND-GA: Tiffany Johnson-AUSA (ND-GA)

The Federal Judiciary:

Reform:  President Biden endorsed term limits for Supreme Court justices and a binding ethics code.  The term limits proposal would effectively remove justices Thomas, Roberts, and Alito from the court, while the ethics code would subject the justices to endless complaints by activists.

Reform:  Adam White, a member of Biden's commission on court reform, points out many problems with Biden's plan.  He also noted that Biden once criticized similar plans.

2nd Circuit:  David Lat reveals that judge Sarah Merriam was the subject of a complaint due to an ‘overly harsh’ management style.  However, he offers some reasons to doubt the complaint.

Federal Circuit:  The Federal Circuit is seeking to extend the suspension of Judge Pauline Newman due to alleged disability.  Meanwhile, Newman is appealing the dismissal of her suit against the Federal Circuit by Judge Christopher "Casey" Cooper (D-DC).  Critics claim she is unable to fulfill her duties, but supporters say she is being mistreated due to her frequent dissents.

D-AK:  Joshua Kindred resigned suddenly on July 8.  The Judicial Council of the Ninth Circuit reported that Kindred engaged in judicial misconduct, creating a sexually hostile workplace for clerks, by having an inappropriate sexual relationship with a clerk, and lying to investigators.  He was appointed by Trump in 2020.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 73 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past two months are listed below.
MD-PA: Christopher Connor (W) 1/17/25 (retired)
D-NM: William Johnson (W) 1/24/25 (senior)
SD-TX: Andrew Hanen (W) 1/2/25 (senior)
D-AK: Joshua Kindred (Trump) 7/8/24 (resigned)
ND-NY: Glenn Suddaby (W) 9/1/24 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Maryland:  Governor Wes Moore (D) nominated Prince George’s County Circuit Court judge Peter Killough to the Maryland Supreme Court.  He has been a judge since 2018, and previously worked for the Maryland Attorney General.  The other applicants were judges Krystal Alves, Tiffany Anderson, and William Snoddy.  Justice Michele Hotten was age-limited on April 20.  

Michigan:  Nominees for Michigan Supreme Court will be decided at state conventions on August 24.
Bolden seat:  Former state rep Kyra Bolden (D) was appointed in 2023 to complete the term of Justice Bridget Mary McCormack.  She is running for the partial (4-year) term.  Matt DePerno, a Stop the Steal attorney who lost the 2022 attorney general race by 8.6% and is now facing charges for unlawful access to voting machines, is seeking the R nomination.  Also running are Branch County circuit court judge Patrick William O’Grady and Detroit attorney Alexandria Taylor.
Viviano seat:  Justice David Viviano (R), appointed in 2013, is retiring.  State rep Andrew Fink and Court of Appeals judge Mark Boonstra are seeking the R nomination, and law professor Kimberly Ann Thomas is seeking the D nomination.

Montana:  The primary election for Montana Supreme Court was held on June 4.
Chief:  Broadwater County attorney Cory Swanson (R) and Jerry Lynch (D supported) move on the the general election.  The results were Swanson 46%, Lynch 37%, Doug Marshall 16%.
Sandefur seat:  Flathead County District Court Judge Dan Wilson (R supported) and 7th Judicial District Judge Katherine Bidegaray (D supported) move on the the general election. The results were Bidegaray 48%, Wilson 35%, Jerry O'Neil (R) 17%.

New Jersey:  Justice Lee Solomon will be age-limited on August 17.  He is a Republican appointed in 2014 by Chris Christie (R).  Governor Phil Murphy (D) nominated John Jay Hoffman to the seat.  He is an independent who was acting attorney general of New Jersey under Christie 2013-16.  He has been the general counsel of Rutgers University since then.

History:

On Ed Whelan's Substack, "Confirmation Tales", recent posts deal with George W. Bush's nominations of Sam Alito and lower court judges.
Resources:

Saturday, July 27, 2024

July 2024 Michigan State House Fundraising

July 26 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Here are summaries of the total amount raised (all cycle) in competitive Michigan state house districts.  Totals include in-kind contributions.  Candidates who filed reporting waivers are generally omitted.  These numbers come from the SOS campaign finance reports.  XX means the report has yet to be filed.

13. (D) Xiong 173K Steenland 44K (R) Singer XX
22. (D) Koleszar 217K (R) Stathakis 131K (100K self)
27. (D) Churches 301K (R) Dill 15K Linting 23K
28. (D) Robinson 121K (R) Thompson 99K
29. (D) Wright 23K (R) DeSana 24K 
31. (D) Miller 350K (R) Biniecki 55K
35. (R) Matthew 79K (67K self) Stockford 4K Wortz 53K
36. (R) Carra 22K Perez 8K Malmborg 2K
38. (D) Andrews 324K (R) Whiteford 163K (30K self) Lucas 285K (186K self)
40. (D) Longjohn 109K Brayton 4K (R) Sackett 3K
42. (D) Marsman 68K (R) Hall 300K Cutshaw 8K
44. (D) Haadsma 303K (R) Friskie 76K Harris 8K Shotts XX
46. (D) Mahoney 78K (R) Schmaltz 113K
48. (D) Conlin 327K (R) Beliger 3K Ignatowski 15K
50. (R) Bezotte 50K Lyke 16K (7K self) Woolford 117K (29K self) Restuccia XX
51. (R) Maddock 16K Zeigler 26K (15K self)
54. (D) Martini 219K (R) Steele 106K 
55. (D) Harrold 78K Hawkins 59K (47K self) (R) Tisdell 106K
57. (D) Farooqi 68K (R) Kuhn 77K 
58. (D) Shannon 242K (R) Robinson 30K
60. (R) Wozniak 32K Zott 30K (17K self)
61. (D) Mentzer 240K (R) Cleary 8K Grossenbacher 2K Wojtowicz 3K
62. (D) Woodman 22K (R) St. Germaine 28K
64. (R) Baldwin XX Eisen 8K Pavlov 27K (20K self)
66. (R) Schriver 64K LeVasseur 90K (81K self)
68. (D) Sneller 39K (R) Martin 37K
71. (R) BeGole 153K Rathbun 45K
76. (D) Witwer 273K (R) Shaver 28K
78. (R) Johnsen 134K Rocha 41K (14K self)
83. (D) Fitzgerald 274K (R) Brann 41K
84. (D) Glanville 292K (R) Wetzel 78K
86. (D) Klomparens 35K (R) De Boer 77K
92. (D) Odykirk 8K (R) Neyer 159K
96. (D) Howard 26K (R) Beson 53K
103. (D) Coffia 407K (R) Garcia XX Kniss 11K Trombley 80K
105. (R) Borton 41K Marcus 15K (13K self)
106. (R) Cavitt 125K Smalenberg 52K
107. (R) Fairbairn 132K (63K self) Friske 68K
109. (D) Hill 327K (R) Bohnak 54K Mason 41K (34K self) Wagner 7K (5K self)

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

2024 Kalamazoo County Commission Races

This post was last updated August 9, 2024.

Democrats won a 6-3 majority on the Kalamazoo County Commission in 2022, which was a bad year for Republicans.  The Kalamazoo redistricting commission, which is dominated by D countywide elected officials, drew a new district map that is a soft D gerrymander, which is likely to produce 6 D and 3 R seats in most years.  No commissioners are retiring this year.

The following post has detailed descriptions of the districts and their political leanings. The numbers given are the 2022 election result and percentages for Trump (2016), O'Brien (2018), Trump (2020), and Balkema (2020).  Incumbents are marked below with asterisks.


List of Kalamazoo County Candidates

District 1 [N Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
0-100 T16 20.3, O18 21.3, T20 21.5, B20 28.6
Democrat: Tami Rey*
Republican: Douglas Olivares
This is the majority minority district.  Property manager Tami Rey won this seat in 2020 after Stephanie Moore vacated it for an unsuccessful race for state house.

District 2 [Westwood, WMU] Safe Democrat
0-100 T16 30.3, O18 30.2, T20 26.7, B20 34.5
Democrat: Jen Strebs*
Republican: Gary Mitchell
This district includes the WMU area of Kalamazoo.  Kalamazoo Township Board member Jen Strebs defeated longtime commissioner Michael Seals (10-20) in the 2020 D primary.  Mitchell was a 2022 state house candidate.  Mitchell defeated Andrew Smith in the R primary.

District 3 [SW, SE Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
22-78 T16 24.7, O18 25.2, T20 22, B20 31.4
Democrat: Monteze Morales*
Republican: Ron Austin
Monteze Morales was appointed in June 2021 to replace Zac Bauer, who resigned after being appointed in 2019.  She previously lost the 2020 D primary to Bauer.  Morales was elected to this district after Tracy Hall retired in 2022.

District 4 [W Portage] Safe Democrat
42-58 T16 44.7, O18 47, T20 39.9, B20 49.5
Democrat: Abigail Wheeler*
Republican: Jason Mikkelborg
Portage used to be R territory, but it moved left under President Trump.  Abigail Wheeler was a Mattawan trustee who lost a race for state house in 2020, and then moved to Portage.  She succeeded Michael Quinn in 2022.

District 5 [E Portage] Safe Democrat
43-57 T16 43.3, O18 45.1, T20 39.9, B20 48.3
Democrat: John Patrick Taylor*
Republican: none
Portage used to be R territory, but it moved left under President Trump.  Meredith Place (18-20), the wife of longtime commissioner John Patrick Taylor (02-16), was elected Kalamazoo County Clerk in 2020.  Fran Melgar was elected in 2020 and retired in 2022.  Taylor was elected here after previously representing the city of Kalamazoo.

District 6 [Comstock, Pavilion, Brady, Climax, Wakeshma] Safe Republican
57-43 T16 56.2, O18 57.2, T20 53.4, B20 61.1
Democrat: none
Republican: John Gisler*
Commissioner John Gisler (10-12, 14-P) has represented the southern townships for the last decade.

District 7 [Cooper, Richland, Ross, Charleston, Galesburg, and Parchment] Safe Republican
55-45 T16 58.3, O18 58.4, T20 55.8, B20 62.2
Democrat: Andy Davis
Republican: Jeff Heppler*
Heppler (02-16, 20-P) lost a race for sheriff in 2016.  He defeated appointed incumbent Jen Aniano (D) to return in 2020.

District 8 [Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] Safe Republican
53.7-46.3 T16 56.3, O18 58.3, T20 51.2, B20 61.1
Democrat: Matthew Miller
Republican: Wendy Mazer*
Texas Township Trustee Wendy Mazer, a solid conservative, was elected in 2022.

District 9 [Oshtemo, Alamo] Lean Democrat
44.3-55.7 T16 43.7, O18 45.9, T20 41.5, B20 50.0
Democrat: Dale Deleeuw*
Republican: Nicole Wagner
Former police officer Dale Deleeuw was elected in 2022.  He succeeded Dale Shugars, who did not seek reelection.

Thursday, July 11, 2024

2024 Michigan Congressional Races

This post was last updated on August 10, 2024.

Michigan's 13 congressional districts are up for election in 2024.  Michigan's congressional map was drawn by Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew some poor lines, and skewed districts 3 and 8 to the left in the name of partisan fairness, but also created districts (7 and 10) that are winnable for each side.

Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Approved


The map above is from the page at RRH Elections linked below, which also has individual district maps.


Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and 538.

Michigan Congressional Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan Congressional Map-538

There are two open seats (7 and 8).  There will also be several interesting general election races.  Consider the districts in detail.

The election data for each district is the R candidates for 2022 congressional results (R-D), President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)

District 1  (Upper Peninsula, northern Lower Peninsula) Safe R
60-37 P16: 59 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 59
Retired general Jack Bergman was first elected in 2016. He broke a term limits pledge in 2022, and is running again this year.  When he does retire, a troll (below the bridge) candidate may finally win the seat.  Josh Saul is also seeking the R nomination.  Callie Barr is the D nominee, defeating Bob Lorinser, the 2022 D nominee.

District 2  (West Michigan coast, central MI) Safe R
64-34 P16: 61 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 63
John Moolenaar ran here in 2022 after previously representing a district based in Midland.  Michael Lynch is the D nominee.

District 3 (Grand Rapids, north Ottawa, Muskegon) Likely D
42-55 P16: 46.6 G18: 44.9 AG18: 47.8 P20: 44.8
Old MI-2 was split into three pieces.  23% went to new 2, 51% went to new 3, and 26% went to new 4.  The core of old 3 in Kent County was merged with half of old 2.  New 3 dropped heavily R rural Kent, Barry, Ionia, and Calhoun.  It added Kentwood (D), Wyoming (lean R), N Ottawa (R), and the city of Muskegon (D), moving about 6% left.  This is a pro-D gerrymander in the name of "partisan fairness".
Attorney Hillary Scholten (D) won in 2022 after losing by 6% in 2020.  
Attorney Paul Hudson (R), who previously ran for MI Supreme Court in 2022, is the R nominee.  He defeated Michael Markey 55-45.

District 4 (Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Holland) Safe R
54-42 P16: 51.6 G18: 49.4 AG18: 52.3 P20: 51
Ottawa county congressman Bill Huizenga ran here in 2022.  He eventually won the Trump endorsement, and incumbent Fred Upton, who had voted for impeachment, decided to retire.  Engineer and Ottawa County GOP chair Brendan Muir is also seeking the R nomination on an antiestablishment platform.  The D nominee is lawyer Jessica Swartz.

District 5 (South-central Michigan, lower tier) Safe R
62-35 P16: 60 G18: 55 AG18: 58 P20: 61
Republican Tim Walberg has become increasingly entrenched since his comeback in 2010, and he is now the longest-serving house member from Michigan.  Libbi Urban is the D nominee.

District 6 (Washtenaw, plus south and west Wayne) Safe D
34-66 P16: 37 G18: 35 AG18: 36 P20: 36
In 2014, democrat Debbie Dingell easily replaced her husband John Dingell in Congress after his 58 years (!) in office.  Debbie Dingell moved here from Dearborn, since she represented the bulk of this territory.  Heather Smiley is the R nominee.

District 7 (Ingham, Livingston, Eaton, Clinton, Schiawassee) Tossup
46.3-51.7 P16: 48.9 G18: 44.2 AG18: 48 P20: 48.7
This is a highly competitive district containing Lansing and surrounding counties.  It contains the core of old 8 (Ingham and Livingston), which was drawn to lean R.  It added lean R areas from old 4 and 7, while losing R (but D-trending) areas in Oakland.  Former DOD official Elissa Slotkin (D), who was elected 2018, is retiring to run for senate.  The R candidate is conservative state senator (18-22) and veteran Tom Barrett, who lost a close race against Slotkin in 2022.

District 8 (Genesee, Saginaw, Bay, Midland) Lean D
43-53 P16: 46.9 G18: 42.5 AG18: 45.8 P20: 48.2
This succeeds old 5, adding the rest of Saginaw County and the city of Midland.  While the district moved about 1% right, this is basically the best configuration Ds short of adding Lansing to the district.  This is another example of gerrymandering by the commission.  Former Genesee Treasurer Dan Kildee (D), who succeeded his uncle Dale Kildee in 2012, is retiring.  
State senator Kristen McDonald Rivet was elected to a swingy district containing the tri-cities (Saginaw, Midland, Bay City) in 2022.  She is the wife of state rep (98-04) and Bay County Drain Commissioner (04-20) Joe Rivet, and has the bulk of D establishment support.  She defeated Flint mayor (87-91) Matt Collier and MSU board member (14-P) Pamela Pugh for the D nomination.
The R nominee is television anchor and Trump USCIS official Paul Junge (R), who lost old 8 to Elissa Slotkin by 4% in 2020, moved here and lost the general in 2022.  He won 75%, defeating Dow executive Mary Draves and Anthony Hudson.

District 9 (The Thumb, N Oakland, N Macomb) Safe R
64-33 P16: 64 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 64
Self-funding businesswoman Lisa McClain (R) was elected in 2020.  Clinton St Mosley is the D nominee.

District 10 (S Macomb, Rochester Hills) Lean R
48.8-48.3 P16: 50.4 G18: 44.4 AG18: 46.6 P20: 49.8
Veteran and businessman John James, the R US Senate nominee in 2018 and 2020, easily won the R nomination in 2022 and barely won the general election.
Former prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga, who was the 2022 D nominee, won the D nomination again at age 77.  He defeated former state house candidate Emily Busch, state board of education member (18-P) Tiffany Tilley, and financial adviser Diane Young.

District 11 (Central Oakland) Safe D
39-61 P16: 41 G18: 38 AG18: 39 P20: 39
Businesswoman Haley Stevens (D) was elected in 2018, and defeated fellow incumbent Andy Levin in 2022.  Nick Somberg won the R nomination.

District 12 (W Detroit, Southfield, Livonia, Dearborn, Westland) Safe D
26-71 P16: 25 G18: 22 AG18: 24 P20: 25
The commission decided to reduce MI from two black-majority districts to none, with both new 12 and 13 now about 46% black.  New 12 combines parts of old 13 and 14.  Former state rep. (08-14) Rashida Tlaib (D) was elected to a district based in eastern Detroit in 2018.  After incumbent Brenda Lawrence announced her retirement, Tlaib announced that she would run here.  
Tlaib is a Muslim member of "the squad" who has made national news due to her anti-Semitic remarks and sympathy for Hamas.  While there was talk of a primary challenge by a more mainstream D in a district with a significant black population, no challenger made the ballot.
James Hooper won the R nomination.

District 13 (E Detroit, Downriver, Romulus) Safe D
24-71 P16: 23 G18: 21 AG18: 22 P20: 25
This district was vacated by Rashida Tlaib in 2022.  State rep (20-22) Shri Thanedar, a wealthy Indian businessman who moved to north Detroit, won an 11-way primary in 2022.  Thanedar won with 28% to 24% for state senator Adam Hollier.  The local D establishment is unhappy with Thanedar, in part because he isn't black.  Hollier ran for the seat this year and attracted substantial support, but was removed from the ballot due to significant fraud on his nominating petitions.  Thanedar defeated former state rep (2000-06) and Detroit City Council member (21-P) Mary Waters and Shakira Hawkins 54-34-11.
Martell Blivings is again the R nominee after losing in 2022.

Sunday, June 23, 2024

2024 Michigan State House Races

Last updated June 23, 2022.

All 110 seats in the Michigan house are up for election in 2024.  Democrats won a 56-54 majority in 2024, thanks to a newly gerrymandered state house map.  Rs controlled the house 2010-22.  

Michigan's 2022 state house map was drawn by Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew lines that split many counties and split Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, and the Lansing area to benefit Ds.  Other districts have strange shapes for no clear reason.  

The commission drew many districts that combined parts of Detroit with neighboring suburbs to dilute black voters.  This resulted in a lawsuit where a federal court threw out the Detroit-area districts and had them redrawn.  The new map has 8 black-majority districts based in Detroit/Southfield (4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 16, 18), up from only 6 in the old map.  There are three districts between 40% and 50% black (10, 12, 17).  Two districts are completely in Detroit.  These changes had minimal partisan impact, with only district 13 becoming competitive.





Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and MICRC.

Michigan State House Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan State House Map-MICRC


In 2022, voters passed changes to Michigan's term limits law.  Limits of 6 years in the state house and 8 in the state senate were replaced with a total of 12 years in both houses of the legislature.  This was sold as limiting legislators' time in office, but the practical effect is that most legislators will stay in office longer.  

This year, no state legislator is term limited except one who was previously a state senator.  After many cycles with 30-50 open seats, this year there are only 8 open seats.  Five legislators are retiring, apparently to prepare for state senate campaigns in 2026 (leaving after two terms allows for two state senate terms).  Two legislators are running for judgeships.

With term limits being extended, several previously term limited legislators are seeking state house seats again.  This is the case in districts 34, 68, 83, 93.

Past cycles (particularly 2014 and 2016) have seen many battles in R primaries between establishment and antiestablishment candidates.  In 2022, there were battles between Trump-endorsed candidates and establishment candidates.  This year, the primaries are relatively dull, with fewer open seats, fewer primary challenges, and not many contested primaries with a clear ideological divide.  The four most outspoken R incumbents (36, 51, 66, 107) have primary challengers, though it isn't clear how serious they are.  Michigan Right to Life has made endorsements that may have an impact in some races. 

Consider the districts in detail.  The election data for each district is the R candidates for 2022 state house results (R-D) (excluding districts 1-14), President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)  Additional information on the races comes from Gongwer and RepublicanMichigander.

The 2022 map (Detroit area):


The 2024 map (Detroit area):

1. [S Detroit] Safe D
P16: 10 G18: 9 AG18: 9 P20: 13
This district has a strong claim to be the most diverse in Michigan, and has successively had black, Hispanic, Jewish, Muslim, Chinese, and black representatives.  Tyrone Carter (D) was elected in 2018.  Jay Lovelady is also seeking the D nomination.  Valerie Whittaker will be the R nominee.

2. [Lincoln Park, Allen Park] Safe D
P16: 45 G18: 38 AG18: 39 P20: 44
The downriver area has moved right under Trump, but is more D downballot.  Tullio Liberati (D), younger brother of rep (14-20) Frank Liberati, was elected in 2020.  Ronald Kokinda will be the R nominee.

3. [Dearborn] Safe D
P16: 23 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 23
This district has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Community organizer Alabas Farhat lost the 2022 special election primary to Jeffrey Pepper, who replaced Abdullah Hammoud.  Pepper didn't seek a full term, and Farhat was elected in 2022.  Ziad Abdulmalik and Gus Tarraf are also seeking the D nomination.  State Board of Education member (10-18) Richard Zeile will be the R nominee.

4. [W Detroit] Safe D
P16: 2 G18: 3 AG18: 3 P20: 4
Community organizer Karen Whitsett (D) was first elected in 2018.  She made headlines in 2020 after calling the house D leader racist and praising President Trump after recovering from coronavirus.  She won renomination in 2020 with 45% against a split field.  She has not attracted much attention since then, and is unopposed for reelection this year.

5. [W Detroit, Oak Park] Safe D
P16: 6 G18: 6 AG18: 6 P20: 9
Oak Park City Council Member Regina Weiss (D) was elected in 2020.  She currently represents district 6, an absurd strip from Detroit to Royal Oak.  Three other Ds are challenging Weiss for the D nomination.  Will Sears will be the R nominee.

6. [Royal Oak] Safe D
P16: 34 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 32
Berkley City Councilmember Natalie Price was elected in 2022 to district 5, a particularly absurd strip from Detroit to Oakland County.  It has a chunk of Detroit, slices through Oak Park to the mostly white suburb of Birmingham (with precincts from Southfield, Royal Oak, and Berkley).  The new district 6 is a much more reasonable district based in Royal Oak.  Price is being challenged for the D nomination for Jospeh Fisher.  Brent Lamkin will be the R nominee.

7. [C Detroit] Safe D
P16: 4 G18: 5 AG18: 5 P20: 7
Hamtramck city commissioner Abraham Aiyash (D), a Muslim Bernie Sanders progressive elected in 2020, is retiring, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  He represents district 9, which roughly corresponds to this new district.  Three Ds and two Rs are seeking the seat.

8. [C Detroit, Ferndale] Safe D
P16: 8 G18: 8 AG18: 9 P20: 9
Helena Scott (D), a legislative staffer, was elected to district 7 in 2020.  In 2022, district 7 was drawn as a strip from Detroit to Royal Oak.  She is running in district 8 this year.  Chris Gilmer-Hill is also seeking the D nomination.  Alex Kuhn will be the R nominee.

9. [downtown Detroit] Safe D
P16: 4 G18: 4 AG18: 5 P20: 5
Joe Tate (D) was elected in 2018 and became the house D leader and speaker after the 2022 election.  His current district 10 includes the Grosse Pointes.  He is running in district 9, which includes downtown Detroit.  R. M. Nelson and Lory Parks are also seeking the D nomination.  Michele Lundgren will be the R nominee.

10. [Grosse Pointes, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 32 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
Harper Woods Council Member Veronica Paiz was elected in 2022 to district 11, which stretches from Detroit to most of St. Clair Shores.  The new district 10 includes most of the Grosse Pointes (a clear community of interest), but combines them with part of Detroit, making it unlikely that they can elect a candidate of their choice.  Justin Counts is also seeking the D nomination.  Griffin Wojtowicz will be the R nominee.

11. [N Detroit, S Warren] Safe D
P16: 13 G18: 12 AG18: 13 P20: 16
Donavan McKinney was elected in 2022 to district 14, which contains parts of Detroit and Warren.  He will be the D nominee for the new district 11.  The R nominee will be Dale Walker.

12. [Eastpointe, Detroit, St. Clair Shores] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 29 P20: 31
The old version of this district combined parts of Detroit and Macomb County.  Kimberly Edwards (D), a Detroit resident, won a surprise upset over a Macomb D incumbent in 2022.  The new district trades Roseville for part of St. Clair Shores.  Patrick Biange and Angela McIntosh are also seeking the D nomination.  Randell Shafer will be the R nominee.

13. [E Warren, Roseville] Lean D
P16: 49 G18: 41 AG18: 43 P20: 48
The current district includes E Warren and a chunk of Detroit.  It was redistricted to include less of Warren and none of Detroit.  It added Roseville and central St. Clair Shores.  The new district was close at the presidential level, but is more D downballot.
Macomb County commissioner Mai Xiong (D) was elected in a 2024 special election after incumbent Lori Stone was elected mayor of Warren in 2023.  Roseville City Clerk Rich Steenland (D) was elected to the state house in 2020 and lost a shock upset to Kimberly Edwards in 2022 after a chunk of Detroit was added to the district.  He is running again this year.  Patricia Johnson Singleton, is also seeking the D nomination.
Engineer Ronald Singer seems to have the most R establishment support.  Jerrie Bowl Bilello, Mark Foster, and John Sheets are also seeking the R nomination.

14. [C Warren, Madison Heights] Safe D
P16: 42 G18: 35 AG18: 37 P20: 41
Hazel Park City Councilmember Mike McFall was elected in 2022 to district 8, which was a strip from Detroit to Madison Heights.  The new district 14 has Madison Heights, Hazel Park, and a large chuck of central Warren.  McFall is running here.
McFall is being challenged for the D nomination by former Warren Mayor (2007-23) James Fouts.  Fouts, age 81, has a long, controversial history in Warren, including "allegedly" making racist remarks on tape (which he denies).  He also identified as an independent for the latter half of his tenure as mayor.  Despite the controversies, he remained fairly popular in Warren, and his tenure was only ended by term limits.
McFall has essentially unanimous support from the D establishment, but Fouts' long history in Warren can't be counted out.  The R nominee will be Barbara Barber.

15. [Dearborn Heights, W Dearborn] Safe D
38-62 P16: 39 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
This district has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Dearborn City Councilmember Erin Byrnes, was elected in 2022.  Gary Gardner will be the R nominee.

16. [SE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
22-78 P16: 23 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 23
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Stephanie Young (D) was elected to a district entirely within Detroit in 2020.  Keith Windham is also seeking the D nomination.  Brian Duggan will be the R nominee.

17. [NE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
31-69 P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 30 P20: 31
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Laurie Pohutsky (D) is a progressive who was first elected to a swing district based in Livonia in 2018.  Rola Makki will be the R nominee.

18. [Southfield, Farmington] Safe D
20-80 P16: 19 G18: 18 AG18: 19 P20: 20
Southfield City Councilman Jason Hoskins was elected in 2022.  Mordechai Klainberg will be the R nominee.

19. [N Farmington Hills, S Bloomfield Twp] Safe D
33-67 P16: 33 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
Farmington Hills City Council member Samantha Steckloff (D) was elected in 2020.  Kevin Hammer will be the R nominee.

20. [W Bloomfield Twp.] Safe D
43-57 P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 41 P20: 43
Political activist Noah Arbit (D) was elected in 2022.  Hermon Barbe and Brendan Cowley are seeking the R nomination.

21. [Novi] Safe D
42-56 P16: 45.3 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.9 P20: 42.4
Novi city councilmember Kelly Breen (D) flipped this historically conservative seat D in 2020.  The new district moved several points left.  Residential appraiser Thomas Konesky will be the R nominee.

22. [W Livonia, Plymouth, Northville] Lean D
46-54 P16: 50 G18: 46.8 AG18: 49.7 P20: 47.2
Matt Koleszar (D) was first elected in 2018, flipping a historically R seat that moved left under Trump.  This district moved several points right compared to Koleszar's old district.  Student Christian Charette and carpet cleaner Adam Stathakis are seeking the R nomination.

23. [E Ann Arbor, South Lyon] Safe D
35-65 P16: 35 G18: 35 AG18: 37 P20: 34
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, Ann Arbor was split into four pieces.  This particularly absurd district has a slice of Ann Arbor, R-leaning Salem Township, South Lyon from Oakland County, and parts of Plymouth and Northville Townships in Wayne County.  Washtenaw County Commissioner Jason Morgan was elected in 2022.  Miriam Corvino and David Stamp are seeking the R nomination.

24. [Canton Twp] Safe D
39-61 P16: 41 G18: 37 AG18: 40 P20: 38
Ranjeev Puri (D) was elected in 2020.  Leonard Scott will be the R nominee.

25. [Westland, Wayne] Safe D
37-63 P16: 40 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 40
Peter Herzberg (D) was elected in a 2024 special election after Kevin Coleman (D) was elected in mayor of Westland.  Four other candidates are seeking the D nomination.  Josh Powell will be the R nominee.

26. [Garden City, Inkster, N Romulus] Safe D
32-68 P16: 32 G18: 27 AG18: 28 P20: 34
Teacher Dylan Wegela (D) won in 2022.  DeArtriss Coleman-Richardson is also seeking the D nomination.  Jeff Gorman will be the R nominee.

27. [Trenton, Grosse Ile] Tossup
49.2-50.8 P16: 51.5 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.7 P20: 51.3
The downriver area has many working class voters who have moved right under Trump.  Teacher Jaime Churches (D) was elected in 2022.  Gibraltar City Council member Cody Dill, student Rylee Linting, and realtor Maria Mendoza-Boc are also seeking the R nomination.

28. [NE Monroe, Brownstown Twp] Tossup
51-49 P16: 51.5 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.6 P20: 51.9
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Nurse Jamie Thompson (R) was elected in 2022.  Beth Socia is also seeking the R nomination.  Teacher Janise Robinson will be the D nominee.

29. [Taylor, Huron] Lean R
51.5-48.5 P16: 51.6 G18: 44.3 AG18: 46.3 P20: 53
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Sales manager James DeSana (R) was elected in 2022.  Taylor School Board member Kyle Wright will be the D nominee.

30. [S Monroe] Safe R
37-63 P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 60
Army veteran William Bruck was elected in 2022.  Rick Kull will be the D nominee.

31. [N Monroe, Belleville] Lean D
47.7-52.3 P16: 47.4 G18: 42.1 AG18: 44.1 P20: 48.8
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It combines heavily D parts of Wayne with rural R areas of Monroe.  Van Buren Township Trustee Reggie Miller (D) was elected in 2022.  She won by 5% over truck driver Dale Biniecki, who will be the R nominee again this year.

32. [Ypsilanti] Safe D
21-79 P16: 22 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 22
Ypsilanti Township Trustee Jimmie Wilson Jr. was elected in 2022.  Three people are seeking the R nomination.

33. [S Ann Arbor, Pittsfield Twp] Safe D
25-75 P16: 25 G18: 24 AG18: 26 P20: 23
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships.  County Commissioner Felicia Brabec (D), who was elected in 2020, is retiring to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  Legislative staffer Morgan Foreman and Ann Arbor School Board trustee Rima Mohammed are seeking the D nomination.  The R nominee will be Jason Rogers.

34. [Lenawee] Safe R
62-38 P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 54 P20: 58
State rep (10-14) and senator (14-22) Dale Zorn won this seat in 2022.  He is term limited (even after the initiative).  Former state rep (10-16) Nancy Jenkins, who is no longer term limited, will be the R nominee.  John Dahlgren will be the D nominee after losing in 2022.

35. [Hillsdale, Branch] Safe R
73-27 P16: 69 G18: 64 AG18: 66 P20: 71
Attorney Andrew Fink (R), who was elected in 2020, is running for Michigan Supreme Court.  Branch County Commissioner Tom Matthew, Hillsdale Mayor Adam Stockford, who previously ran for this seat in 2020, and teacher Jennifer Wortz are seeking the R nomination.  The D nominee will be Don Hicks.

36. [St. Joseph, Cass] Safe R
66-34 P16: 63 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 65
Steve Carra (R) was first elected in 2020.  He is a pro-Trump libertarian who is close to the Karamo faction of the Michigan GOP.  After congressman Fred Upton voted for impeachment, Carra announced a run against him, and was endorsed by President Trump.  Redistricting took Carra out of the new district, and added the base of Congressman Bill Huizenga, who ran for the seat.  President Trump then offered a "complete and total" endorsement of Huizenga.  While not explicitly un-endorsing Carra, this served to push him out of the race, and he chose to run for reelection.  Upton decided not to seek reelection.
Carra won renomination in 2022 with only 40% against three credible candidates who entered the race while he was running for congress.  Michael Malmborg and Sturgis Mayor Frank Perez are also seeking the R nomination this year.  Erin Schultes will be the D nominee.

37. [S Berrien, W Cass] Safe R
65-35 P16: 59 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore and added more of interior Berrien County.  Teacher Brad Paquette (R) was first elected in 2018.  Angela Jones will be the D nominee.

38. [Berrien to Allegan lakeshore] Lean D
48.2-51.8 P16: 46.1 G18: 44.9 AG18: 46.5 P20: 44.6
This absurd district runs about 75 miles along the Lake Michigan shoreline from New Buffalo to Saugatuck.  It is barely a mile wide at one point.  Apparently, people who live close to a lake form a community of interest.  This district promotes "partisan fairness" since it favors Ds.  Joey Andrews (D), an AFL-CIO operative, won this seat in 2022.
One R candidate is accountant Kevin Whiteford, the husband of Allegan County state rep (16-22) Mary Whiteford, who lost by 3.6% in 2022.  He faces a rematch with realtor George Steven Lucas for the R nomination.
39. [Van Buren] Safe R
63-37 P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore of Van Buren and added parts of Berrien and Allegan.  Pauline Wendzel (R), a businesswoman who was elected to a N Berrien district in 2018, won here in 2022.  Richard Overton, who was a Reform Party congressional candidate in 2000 and 2002, is also seeking the R nomination.  Jared Polonowski and Kerry Tapper are seeking the D nomination.

40. [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas] Safe D
41-59 P16: 42 G18: 41 AG18: 44.6 P20: 40
This area was R-held until 2020, when county commissioner Christine Morse (D) won an open seat. She is retiring this year to seek a local judgeship.  Dr. Matt Longjohn, who was the D nominee for congress in 2018, is the likely nominee this year.  Also seeking the D nomination is former Portage city council member Lisa Brayton, whose campaign for mayor ended over a residency issue.  The R candidate is Kalamazoo GOP chair Kelly Sackett, who lost by 17% in 2022.

41. [Kalamazoo city] Safe D
21-77 P16: 23 G18: 22 AG18: 24 P20: 23
County commissioner Julie Rogers (D) was elected in 2020 after losing earlier bids in 2006 and 2008.  The R candidates are Terry Haines and Nicole Sabel.
42. [rural Kalamazoo, Plainwell] Safe R
55-45 P16: 52.9 G18: 49.4 AG18: 53.2 P20: 52.6
Matt Hall was first elected in 2018, defeating a moderate incumbent, and is now the house R leader.  He moved to Kalamazoo County from Calhoun County after being put in the same district as Sarah Lightner (R) of Jackson County.  Trucking company owner Rich Cutshaw is also seeking the R nomination, running to Hall's right.  The D nominee will be Austin Marsman.

43. [Allegan, S Barry] Safe R
71-29 P16: 67 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 69
This absurd district includes the majority of Allegan County, southern Barry County, one township from Eaton County, and part of a township in Ottawa County.  Martin Township Clerk Rachelle Smit was elected in 2022 with a Trump endorsement.   Danene Shumaker will be the D nominee.

44. [Battle Creek, Albion] Tossup
47.8-52.2 P16: 48.1 G18: 44.4 AG18: 47.3 P20: 49.4
This district was drawn in 2012 as a gerrymander to put the most D areas of Calhoun in one district to protect then-speaker Jase Bolger (R) in a neighboring district.  Incredibly, the redistricting commission maintained this gerrymander.  County commissioner Jim Haadsma (D) was elected to this open seat in 2018. County commissioner Steve Frisbie, Alexander Harris, and Jim Shotts are seeking the R nomination.
45. [S Calhoun, W Jackson] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Sarah Lightner (R) was first elected in 2018 in a rural Jackson County district.  Doug Murch will be the D nominee.

46. [Jackson city] Tossup
54.4-45.6 P16: 48 G18: 44.4 AG18: 46.8 P20: 49.1
This district was gerrymandered by adding Chelsea in Washtenaw County and removing rural R townships.  Broadcaster Kathy Schmaltz (R) won in 2022 after the D nominee imploded due to scandal.  Jackson Mayor Daniel Mahoney will be the D nominee.

47. [W Ann Arbor, SW Jackson] Safe D
37-63 P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson County.  Social work lecturer Carrie Rheingans was elected in 2022.  Tammy Keller and Teresa Spiegelberg are seeking the R nomination.
48. [N Ann Arbor, SC Livingston] Lean D
46-53 P16: 48.1 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.5 P20: 46.6
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson and Livingston Counties.  Journalist Jennifer Conlin (D) was elected in 2022.  Northfield Township Trustee Tawn Beliger and small business owner Brian Ignatowski are seeking the R nomination.

49. [SE Livington, Wixom] Safe R
56-44 P16: 54.9 G18: 51.2 AG18: 53.7 P20: 53.2
Ann Bollin was first elected in 2018.  The D nominee will be Andy Wood.

50. [N, W Livingston] Safe R
67-33 P16: 65 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Former Livingston County Sheriff Bob Bezotte (R) was elected in 2020.  Following the news of a messy divorce, he announced his retirement, and several candidates jumped in the race to succeed him.  One is Marine veteran and pastor Jason Woolford, who lost by 7% in district 48 in 2022.  Also running are attorney Kristina Lyke, who ran for congress in 2020, and realtor/legislative staffer Dominic Restuccia.  Bezotte then reentered the race shortly before the filing deadline.  Lyke's husband filed a complaint that Bezotte did not live in the house (that he owns with his wife) listed on his candidate filing, and he was removed from the ballot.  Bezotte appealed the decision, and was returned to the ballot.
Austin Breuer will be the D nominee.

51. [White Lake, Milford] Safe R
58-42 P16: 61 G18: 56 AG18: 58 P20: 59
Matt Maddock, an antiestablishment leader who is close to Trump, was first elected in 2018.  Milford Village Council member Kevin Ziegler is also seeking the R nomination.  Debbie Llewellyn and Sarah May-Seward are seeking the D nomination.

52. [Waterford, Independence] Safe R
59-41 P16: 59 G18: 53 AG18: 56 P20: 57
Police officer Mike Harris (R) was elected in a 2022 special election, following the death of Andrea Schroeder.  Caroline Dargay will be the D nominee.

53. [Pontiac, S Waterford] Safe D
33-67 P16: 30 G18: 28 AG18: 29 P20: 32
Brenda Carter (D) was first elected in 2018.  Melissa Schultz will be the R nominee.

54. [N Bloomfield, Auburn Hills, Orion] Lean R
51.2-48.8 P16: 51.2 G18: 48.4 AG18: 50.8 P20: 48.3
This is a rare example of a good draw for Rs (though not very compact), which puts shaky territory in Bloomfield Township with more R Orion Township to the north.  Orion Township Treasurer and realtor Donni Steele (R) won in 2022.  Businesswoman Shadia Martini will be the D nominee after losing by 2% in 2022.

55. [Rochester Hills] Lean R
51.8-48.2 P16: 50.9 G18: 48.2 AG18: 51.1 P20: 48.1
This historically conservative wealthy suburban seat has trended left under Trump.  Rochester Hills City Council member Mark Tisdell (R) won a highly competitive general election in 2020.  Diplomat Trevis Harrold and Army veteran Alexander Hawkins are seeking the D nomination.


56. [Troy] Safe D
42-58 P16: 45.1 G18: 42 AG18: 44.6 P20: 41.3
Marketing manager Sharon MacDonell (D) was elected in 2022.  Dave Kniffen will be the R nominee.

57. [W Sterling Heights] Lean R
52.6-47.4 P16: 52 G18: 46.4 AG18: 48.4 P20: 53.1
Oakland County Commissioner and attorney Thomas Kuhn (R) was elected in 2022.  Attorney Aisha Farooqi (D) is running again after losing by 5% in 2022.  Tyler Fox and Douglas Waggener are also seeking the D nomination.  

58. [E Sterling Heights] Tossup
48.7-51.3 P16: 52.5 G18: 45.4 AG18: 48 P20: 52.1
This district is very oddly shaped for no clear reason.  Nate Shannon (D) was first elected in 2018.  Roger Goodrich and Utica City Councilman Ron Robinson are seeking the R nomination.

59. [Shelby Twp] Safe R
65-35 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 61 P20: 63
State rep (18-21) Doug Wozniak won a 2021 special election for a Macomb-based state senate seat.  Redistricting put Wozniak in the same district as an incumbent senator, and he chose to run for state house again in 2022, defeating his successor in the primary.  CPA Jean Zott is also seeking the R nomination.
Jason Pulaski will be the D nominee.

60. [Macomb Twp] Safe R
58-42 P16: 59 G18: 51.4 AG18: 55 P20: 58
Former Clinton Townshp Trustee Joseph Aragona was elected in 2022.  Shelly Fraley will be the D nominee.

61. [Clinton Twp] Lean D
48-52 P16: 50.3 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.8 P20: 49.5
Mount Clemens City Commissioner Denise Mentzer (D) won this seat in 2022.  Legislative staffer Russ Cleary, IT consultant John Grossenbacher, and school board member Robert Wojtowicz are seeking the R nomination.

62. [Harrison Twp] Lean R
53.4-46.6 P16: 52.8 G18: 46.1 AG18: 48.2 P20: 52.7
Alicia St. Germaine (R) was elected in 2022.  Michelle Levine-Woodman will be the D nominee.

63. [Chesterfield Twp, S St. Clair] Safe R
64-36 P16: 64 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 65
St. Clair County Clerk Jay DeBoyer won this seat in 2022.  Michael Zoran is also seeking the R nomination.  Robert Kelly-McFarland will be the D nominee.

64. [E St. Clair] Safe R
61-39 P16: 58 G18: 49.5 AG18: 52.6 P20: 59
R incumbents Andrew Beeler (20-24) and Gary Eisen (18-22) faced off in 2022, with Beeler winning 67-26.  Beeler is retiring this year, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  Eisen, a firearms instructor, is one of five R candidates.  The others are "St. Clair County Commissioner Jorja Baldwin, Joseph Pavlov of Kimball, a former teacher at Marysville Public Schools, Dan Geiersbach of Port Huron, who ran for Senate in 2022, Ryan Maxon of Smiths Creek".
There are three candidates for the D nomination.

65. [W St. Clair, E Lapeer] Safe R
72-28 P16: 70 G18: 62 AG18: 65 P20: 71
Navy veteran and Richmond City Councilmember Jaime Greene won in 2022.  Shirley Tomczak will be the D nominee.

66. [NE Oakland] Safe R
65-35 P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Teacher Josh Schriver won this seat in 2022 on a libertarian-leaning platform.  He has attracted controversy for retweeting a meme about the 'great replacement'.  Real estate lawyer Randy LeVasseur is also seeking the R nomination.  Shawn Almeranti-Crosby will be the D nominee.

67. [W Lapeer, NE Genesee] Safe R
61-39 P16: 58 G18: 50.2 AG18: 54 P20: 60
Phil Green (R) was elected in 2018 in a Tuscola/Huron County district.  Redistricting placed one township from Tuscola County in this district.  Green won an 8-way primary with only 25% in 2022.
He is being challenged by former radio host Sherri Cross, who previously lost R primaries for state house in 2018, 2020, and 2022 (to Green, finishing seventh).  Also seeking the R nomination is Sherry Marden.  Anissa Buffin will be the D nominee.

68. [Burton, Davison] Lean R
55-45 P16: 52.5 G18: 45.5 AG18: 49.9 P20: 52.3
This area has moved significantly right under Trump.  David Martin (R), a county commissioner from Davison who upset an incumbent D in 2020 in a NW Genesee district, won this district in 2022.  Former rep (16-22) Tim Sneller (D) of Burton, who is no longer term limited, is the D candidate.

69. [W Genesee] Safe D
41-56 P16: 41 G18: 36 AG18: 40 P20: 42
Legislative staffer Jasper Martus was elected in 2022.  Patrick Duvendeck will be the R nominee.
70. [Flint] Safe D
18-82 P16: 17 G18: 14 AG18: 16 P20: 19
Due to population loss in Flint, this district expanded from being contained within Flint to containing Flint and some suburban areas.  It has a black majority.  Cynthia Neeley (D) won a 2020 special election to replace her husband Sheldon Neeley after he was elected mayor of Flint.  Michael Clack is also seeking the D nomination.  Rob Waskoviak will be the R nominee.

71. [Shiawassee] Safe R
58-42 P16: 57 G18: 50.4 AG18: 56 P20: 60
Shiawassee County Sheriff Brian BeGole was elected in 2022.  He won 46-36 over Trump-endorsed Army veteran Kevin Rathbun, who is back for a rematch this year.  Mark Zacharda will be the D nominee again after losing in 2022.

72. [Fenton, Grand Blanc] Safe R
58-42 P16: 55 G18: 49.6 AG18: 53 P20: 55
This district added some competitive areas near Flint.  It shifted slightly left, but is still safe.  Former police officer Mike Mueller (R) was first elected in 2018.  John Dolza will be the D nominee.

73. [rural Ingham] Safe D
43-57 P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 43 P20: 44
This rural Ingham district loses Delhi Township and adds part of East Lansing.  It is usually close, but never close enough for Rs to win.  Julie Brixie (D) was elected in 2018 to a district based in East Lansing and Meridian Township.  Joshua Rockey will be the R nominee.

74. [S Lansing, Delhi Twp] Safe D
31-69 P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 31 P20: 31
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing.  Kara Hope (D) was elected in 2018.  Tom Izzo (not the MSU basketball coach) will be the R nominee.
75. [Meridian Twp, SE Clinton] Safe D
40-60 P16: 39 G18: 35 AG18: 40 P20: 38
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits East Lansing and absorbs rural R areas.  Former Ingham County Commissioner Penelope Tsernoglou won in 2022 after losing to state rep Julie Brixie in the 2018 D primary.  Frank Lambert will be the R nominee.

76. [Eaton] Lean D
44-56 P16: 47.9 G18: 42.9 AG18: 46.9 P20: 47.9
This district flipped several times over the past decade, and usually has close races.  Angela Witwer (D) was first elected with 50.8% in 2018 and was reelected with 51.2% in 2020.  Restaurant owner Peter Jones and pastor Andy Shaver are seeking the R nomination.

77. [N Lansing, SW Clinton] Safe D
38-62 P16: 37 G18: 33 AG18: 38 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing and absorbs rural R areas of Clinton County.  Leftist activist Emily Dievendorf won this seat in 2022.  Angela Matthews is also seeking the D nomination.  Two candidates are seeking the R nomination.

78. [Ionia, NE Barry] Safe R
66-34 P16: 62 G18: 56 AG18: 61 P20: 63
Businesswoman Gina Johnsen won in 2022 after losing an Eaton County seat in 2020.  She is being challenged by sheriff's deputy Jon Rocha, who got Trump's endorsement in 2020 but was disqualified from the ballot due to campaign finance problems.  Christine Terpening will be the D nominee.

79. [S Kent] Safe R
66-34 P16: 65 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 63
This district has most of the southern tier of Kent, plus three townships from Barry and one from Allegan.  Angela Rigas was elected in 2022 after securing the Trump endorsement.  The D nominee will be Jason Rubin.

80. [Kentwood, East Grand Rapids] Safe D
44-56 P16: 42.7 G18: 43 AG18: 46.1 P20: 39.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Kent County Commissioner Phil Skaggs (D) won here in 2022.  Former Allegan County Commissioner Bill Sage will be the R nominee.

81. [NE Grand Rapids, Ada Twp] Safe D
44-56 P16: 45.5 G18: 43.3 AG18: 46.6 P20: 41.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Rep. (18-24) Rachel Hood (D) is retiring, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  Kent County Commissioner Stephen Wooden will be the D nominee.  Jordan Youngquist will be the R nominee.

82. [SE Grand Rapids] Safe D
25-74 P16: 24 G18: 25 AG18: 27 P20: 23
Grand Rapids school board member Kristian Grant was elected in 2022.  Ryan Malinoski will be the R nominee again after losing in 2022.
83. [Wyoming, SW Grand Rapids] Lean D
45-53 P16: 46.2 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.9 P20: 44
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost heavily R Byron Township and added part of Grand Rapids.  Wyoming City Councilmember John Fitzgerald (D) was elected in 2022.  
Former rep (16-22) Tommy Brann (R) is no longer term limited and will be the R nominee after losing a race for state senate in 2022.  

84. [W Grand Rapids, Walker, Grandville] Lean D
44-56 P16: 47.5 G18: 43.8 AG18: 47.1 P20: 43.7
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Walker City Commissioner Carol Glanville (D) was elected 52-40 in a normally safe R district in a May 2022 special election after the election of Mark Huizenga to the state senate.  Justin Rackham is also seeking the D nomination.
Businessman John Wetzel and Ben June are seeking the R nomination.

85. [Jenison, Zeeland] Safe R
70-28 P16: 71 G18: 69 AG18: 72 P20: 67
Bradley Slagh was first elected in 2018.  Marcia Mansaray will be the D nominee.

86. [Holland] Safe R
56-44 P16: 51.7 G18: 51.4 AG18: 54.4 P20: 49.3
This Holland-area district has trended left, but is more R downballot.  Former Holland Mayor Nancy De Boer was elected in 2022.   Legislative staffer Abby Klomparens will be the D nominee.

87. [Muskegon city] Safe D
38-62 P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 37 P20: 39
Will Snyder, district director for Rep. (16-22) Terry Sabo won here in 2022.  The R nominee will be Chip Chipman.

88. [Grand Haven, Norton Shores] Safe R
56-42 P16: 54.5 G18: 51.7 AG18: 55.3 P20: 53.7
Greg VanWoerkom, son of state senator (02-10) Jerry VanWoerkom, was elected to the rural Muskegon district in 2018.  That district was chopped into three pieces, and he won this district in 2022.  Tim Meyer will be the D nominee.

89. [E Ottawa, SE Muskegon] Safe R
69-31 P16: 65 G18: 61 AG18: 64 P20: 66
Luke Meerman (R) was first elected in 2018.  The D nominee will be Lois Maassen.

90. [NC Kent] Safe R
62-38 P16: 60 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 59
Bryan Posthumus (R) was first elected in 2020.  He is the son of LG (1998-2002) Dick Posthumus and brother of Kent County Clerk Lisa Lyons.  William Higgins will be the D nominee.

91. [Montcalm] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 67
Pat Outman, the son of senator (18-P) Rick Outman, was first elected in 2020.  Jason Dillingham will be the D nominee.

92. [Isabella, N Gratiot] Lean R
56-42 P16: 50.8 G18: 46.4 AG18: 50.2 P20: 53
This district is drawn in the way most beneficial to Ds.  While it keeps Isabella County whole, it includes northern Gratiot County, which is the most pro-D area in any of the five neighboring counties.  Farmer Jerry Neyer (R) won this seat in 2022.  CMU manager Timothy Odykirk will be the D nominee.
93. [W Saginaw, S Gratiot, N Clinton] Safe R
64-36 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Graham Filler (R) was first elected in 2018 and moved into this new district after his house was put into a D-heavy district as part of the gerrymander of the Lansing area.  He is retiring this year, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  The R nominee will be former state rep (12-18) Tim Kelly, who is no longer term limited.  He was nominated, but not confirmed for a position in the Trump administration and lost a campaigns for congress in 2020 and state senate in 2022.
Kevin Seamon will be the D nominee.

94. [Saginaw city] Safe D
32-68 P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 32 P20: 32
Saginaw County commissioner Amos O'Neal (D) was elected in 2020.  Geoffrey Weil and Robert Zelle are seeking the R nomination.

95. [Midland] Safe R
61-39 P16: 57 G18: 55 AG18: 57 P20: 57
Former DIA officer Bill G. Schuette, son of former AG (10-18) Bill Schuette, was elected in 2022.  Sabrina Lopez will be the D nominee.

96. [Bay County] Lean R
55-45 P16: 52.3 G18: 45.9 AG18: 48.8 P20: 53.7
Bay County was long a D stronghold, but it has been moving right.  Bangor Township School Board member Timothy Beson (R) defeated a D incumbent in an upset in 2020.  Veteran Chaz Fowler is challenging Beson in the R primary.  Teacher Rudy Howard, Jr. will be the D nominee.

97. [E Saginaw, W Tuscola] Safe R
67-33 P16: 63 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 64
This strange district neighbors four urban areas, and has an arm to take in rural areas between the tri-cities (Saginaw, Midland, and Bay City).  Former Tuscola County Commissioner Matthew Bierlein defeated an R incumbent in 2022 to win this seat.  Mark Putnam will be the D nominee.

98. [the Thumb] Safe R
72-28 P16: 69 G18: 63 AG18: 66 P20: 71
Former Sanilac County drain commissioner and farmer Gregory Alexander was elected in 2022.  April Osentoski will be the D nominee.

99. [Iosco, Arenac, Ogemaw, Gladwin] Safe R
68-32 P16: 65 G18: 58 AG18: 59 P20: 67
Au Gres Mayor and hunting store owner Mike Hoadley was elected in 2022 after securing a Trump endorsement.  John LeRoux will be the D nominee.

100. [Mecosta, Osceola, Clare] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 67
Grant Township Board member Tom Kunse won in 2022.  Two candidates are seeking the D nomination.

101. [Newaygo, Lake] Safe R
68-32 P16: 65 G18: 60 AG18: 63 P20: 67
Former director of the Newaygo County Commission on Aging Joseph Fox was elected in 2022.  Brandon Scott McDonald is also seeking the GOP nomination.  Christopher Crain will be the D nominee.

102. [Muskegon to Manistee lakeshore] Safe R
61-39 P16: 56 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 58
This district was assembled from pieces of three existing districts.  Senator (18-22) Curt VanderWall (R) was previously a state rep (16-18) representing one of them.  Redistricting put him in a district largely represented by senator Jon Bumstead.  VanderWall decided to run for state house in 2022 rather than challenge Bumstead or move to a different district.  Kathy Pelleran-Mahoney will be the D nominee.

103. [Leelanau, Traverse City] Tossup
48.5-49.8 P16: 49.9 G18: 46.6 AG18: 49.5 P20: 46.9
This district is gerrymandered to combine Leelanau County with the Traverse City area in a way that is the best for Ds.  Grand Traverse County is split, even though it has the right population for a single district.  Grand Traverse County Commissioner Betsy Coffia (D), who previously lost races for state house in 2012, 2014, and 2016, has most D establishment support, narrowly beat an R incumbent in 2022.
Tripp Garcia, Kate Kniss, and Lisa Trombley are seeking the R nomination.  Kniss and Trombley are both former county GOP chairs, and Kniss took 48% against an incumbent state rep in district 104 in 2022.
104. [S Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Antrim] Safe R
63-37 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 62
The oddly shaped district contains parts of six counties but all of none.  John Roth (R) was first elected in 2020 and moved to this district to avoid a primary with another incumbent.  Owen Suhy is also seeking the R nomination.  Larry Knight will be the D nominee.

105. [Roscommon, Crawford, Otsego, Missaukee] Safe R
69-31 P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 65 P20: 68
Otsego County Commissioner Ken Borton was first elected in 2020.  Christian Marcus is also seeking the R nomination.  James Wojey will be the D nominee.

106. [NE Lower Peninsula] Safe R
65-35 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 66
Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner Cam Cavitt was elected in 2022.  Veteran Todd Smalenberg is also seeking the R nomination.  Two candidates are seeking the D nomination. 

107. [Mackinac Bridge area] Safe R
57-43 P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 57
Property manager Neil Friske won this seat in 2022.  He is an antiestablishment conservative friendly with the Karamo wing of the Michigan GOP.  University student Parker Fairbairn, who also ran in 2022, is seeking the R nomination.  Jodi Decker will again be the D nominee after losing in 2022.

108. [Menominee to Chippewa] Safe R
66-34 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 64
Menominee County Commissioner and paramedic David Prestin won this seat in 2022.  Christiana Reynolds will be the D nominee.

109. [Marquette] Lean D
47-53 P16: 48.6 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.1 P20: 48
Trump won this district, but it is more D downballot.  Marquette City Commissioner Jenn Hill won this seat in 2022.  Hill faces two primary challengers.  Former farmer and police officer Melody Wagner is seeking the R nomination, after losing races for this district in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022.  Businessman Burt Mason and weatherman Karl Bohnak are also seeking the R nomination.

110. [W Upper Peninsula] Safe R
63-37 P16: 59 G18: 54 AG18: 55 P20: 59
Gregory Markkanen (R) won this historically D district in an upset in in 2018.  Kim Corcoran will be the D nominee.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe D: 42 (1-12, 14-21, 23-26, 32, 33, 40, 41, 47, 53, 56, 69, 70, 73-75, 77, 81-82, 87, 94)
Lean D: 10 (13, 22, 31, 38, 48, 61, 76, 83, 84, 109)
Tossup: 6 (27, 28, 44, 46, 58, 103)
Lean R: 8 (29, 54, 55, 57, 62, 68, 92, 96)
Safe R: 44 (30, 34-37, 39, 42, 43, 45, 49-52, 59, 60, 63-67, 71, 72, 78, 79, 85, 86, 88-91, 93, 95, 97-102, 104-108, 110)