Thursday, November 07, 2024

Michigan 2024 Election Results

2024 Michigan Election Results

President: Trump 49.8% Harris 48.3%, Other 1.9%

Senate:  Rogers 48.3% Slotkin 48.6%  Frustratingly close loss.

Congress.  The congressional delegation will be 7R, 6D.  Rs picked up district 7.

1. 59-38 for Jack Bergman 
2. 65-32 for John Moolenaar 
3. Hudson 44 Scholten 54 This gerrymandered seat isn't winnable in this form.
4. 56-43 for Bill Huizenga 
5. 66-33 for Tim Walberg 
6. 35-62 for Debbie Dingell 
7. Tom Barrett 50.3% Curtis Hertel 46.6% PICKUP for Barrett after losing by 5% in 2022.
8. Paul Junge 44.6% Kristen Rivet 51.3% After three consecutive losses for Junge, time for a different candidate.  There will be a special election for Rivet's senate seat.
9. 67-30 for Lisa McClain 
10. John James 51 Carl Marlinga 45 Decent improvement for James in this rematch.
11. 40-58 for Haley Stevens 
12. 25-70 for Rashida Tlaib 
13. 25-69 for Shri Thanedar 

State House.  The house will be 58R, 52D.  Rs picked up four seats, ending the D majority after two  years.  They overcame the gerrymandered map.

2. Kokinda 42 Liberati 52 Downriver is getting more competitive.
13. Singer 46.3 Xiong 50.8  This may be worth targeting in the future.
20. Cowley 47 Arbit 53 
21. Konesky 43 Kelly Breen 55
22. Stathakis 47.5 Matt Kolezar 52.5
27. Linting 52.2 Churches 47.8 PICKUP
28. Thompson 54.4, Robinson 45.6
29. DeSana 55 Wright 45
31. Biniecki 49.4 Reggie Miller 50.6 (686 votes)  Missed opportunity?
38. Whiteford 46.9 Joey Andrews 53.1
40. Sackett 44 Longjohn 56 Modest improvement in a once-Republican district.
42. Matt Hall 57 Marsman 43  Hall is in line to be Speaker this upcoming term.
44. Frisbie 51.9 Haadsma 48.1  PICKUP in a district where Rs found a better candidate.
46. Schmaltz 52.1 Mahoney 47.9  Only a small decline in a district where Ds disowned their candidate two years ago.
48. Ignatowski 47.1 Conlin 51.5 
54. Donni Steele 52.4 Shadia Martini 47.6 Districts 54 and 55 continue to be a concern.
55. Tisdel 53.7 Bernard 46.3
57. Kuhn 57 Farooqi 43
58. Robinson 53.2 Shannon 46.8 PICKUP thanks to big R margin in Sterling Heights.
61. Wojtowicz 49.3 Mentzer 50.7 (715 votes)
62. St Germaine 56 Levine-Woodman 44 
68. David Martin 54 Schlinker 46
69. Duveneck 44 Martus 56
73. Rockey 45 Brixie 55
76. Shaver 47.9 Witwer 52.1
80. Sage 43 Phil Skaggs 57
81. Youngquist 45 Wooden 55
83. Brann 46.9 Fitzgerald 53.1
84. Wetzel 45 Glanville 55
The Grand Rapids area is gerrymandered to have 5 D districts, instead of the 2-3 D districts a fair map would have.  Note that the R percentages in 80, 81, 83, and 84 are all 43-47%--drawn to be just out of reach.
86. Nancy DeBoer 56 Klomparens 44
92. Neyer 58 Odykirk 42
96. Beson 60 Howard 40
103. Trombley 47.2 Coffia 52.8
109. Bohnak 51.3 Jenn Hill 48.7 PICKUP with a better candidate than the previous 4-time loser.

Supreme Court:  
Full term: Fink (R) 39 Thomas (D) 61
Partial term: O'Grady (R) 38 Bolden (D incumbent) 62
Ds will now hold a 5-2 majority on the court.  Ds did much better at getting their voters to vote in this nonpartisan race.

COA District 2: Ackerman 55 Willis 45
Ackerman had many R endorsements (and some Ds).

State Board of Education:  R incumbents Snyder and McMillin were reelected.  There was a 74K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
University of Michigan:  Meyers (R) and Illich (D incumbent) won.  The other R finished last.
Michigan State:  Rs Balow and Maday won.  There was a 14K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
Wayne State:  Rs Busuito and Reddy won.  There was a 66K vote margin between the second and third candidates.

My ratings turned out to be pretty accurate.  Every race I had at safe for a party was won by that party.  The only lean race I missed was house 109. I predicted all tossups correctly.  For congress, the tossup had a margin of 4, and the leans had margins of 6 and -7.
My state house tossups had margins of 4, 4, 4, 6, and -6.  My lean R races had margins from 5 to 14.  My lean D races had margins from 4 to -10.  The closest margin in race I had at safe was -6 in district 20.

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Tuesday, November 05, 2024

2024 Michigan State House Races

Last updated November 4, 2024.

All 110 seats in the Michigan house are up for election in 2024.  Democrats won a 56-54 majority in 2024, thanks to a newly gerrymandered state house map.  Rs controlled the house 2010-22.  

Michigan's 2022 state house map was drawn by Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew lines that split many counties and split Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, and the Lansing area to benefit Ds.  Other districts have strange shapes for no clear reason.  

The commission drew many districts that combined parts of Detroit with neighboring suburbs to dilute black voters.  This resulted in a lawsuit where a federal court threw out the Detroit-area districts and had them redrawn.  The new map has 8 black-majority districts based in Detroit/Southfield (4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 16, 18), up from only 6 in the old map.  There are three districts between 40% and 50% black (10, 12, 17).  Two districts are completely in Detroit.  These changes had minimal partisan impact, with only district 13 becoming competitive.

Michigan Redistricting: State House Map Approved




Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and MICRC.

Michigan State House Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan State House Map-MICRC


In 2022, voters passed changes to Michigan's term limits law.  Limits of 6 years in the state house and 8 in the state senate were replaced with a total of 12 years in both houses of the legislature.  This was sold as limiting legislators' time in office, but the practical effect is that most legislators will stay in office longer.  

This year, no state legislator is term limited except one who was previously a state senator.  After many cycles with 30-50 open seats, this year there are only 8 open seats.  Five legislators are retiring, apparently to prepare for state senate campaigns in 2026 (leaving after two terms allows for two state senate terms).  Two legislators are running for judgeships.

With term limits being extended, several previously term limited legislators are seeking state house seats again.  This is the case in districts 34, 83, 93.

Consider the districts in detail.  The election data for each district is the R candidates for 2022 state house results (R-D) (excluding districts 1-14), President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)  Additional information on the races comes from Gongwer and RepublicanMichigander.

The 2022 map (Detroit area):


The 2024 map (Detroit area):

1. [S Detroit] Safe D
P16: 10 G18: 9 AG18: 9 P20: 13
This district has a strong claim to be the most diverse in Michigan, and has successively had black, Hispanic, Jewish, Muslim, Chinese, and black representatives.  Tyrone Carter (D) was elected in 2018.   Valerie Whittaker is the R nominee.

2. [Lincoln Park, Allen Park] Safe D
P16: 45 G18: 38 AG18: 39 P20: 44
The downriver area has moved right under Trump, but is more D downballot.  Tullio Liberati (D), younger brother of rep (14-20) Frank Liberati, was elected in 2020.  Ronald Kokinda is the R nominee.

3. [Dearborn] Safe D
P16: 23 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 23
This district has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Community organizer Alabas Farhat lost the 2022 special election primary to Jeffrey Pepper, who replaced Abdullah Hammoud.  Pepper didn't seek a full term, and Farhat was elected in 2022. Farhat won the D primary.  State Board of Education member (10-18) Richard Zeile will be the R nominee.

4. [W Detroit] Safe D
P16: 2 G18: 3 AG18: 3 P20: 4
Community organizer Karen Whitsett (D) was first elected in 2018.  She made headlines in 2020 after calling the house D leader racist and praising President Trump after recovering from coronavirus.  She won renomination in 2020 with 45% against a split field.  She has not attracted much attention since then, and is unopposed for reelection this year.

5. [W Detroit, Oak Park] Safe D
P16: 6 G18: 6 AG18: 6 P20: 9
Oak Park City Council Member Regina Weiss (D) was elected in 2020.  She currently represents district 6, an absurd strip from Detroit to Royal Oak.  Will Sears is the R nominee.

6. [Royal Oak] Safe D
P16: 34 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 32
Berkley City Councilmember Natalie Price was elected in 2022 to district 5, a particularly absurd strip from Detroit to Oakland County.  It has a chunk of Detroit, slices through Oak Park to the mostly white suburb of Birmingham (with precincts from Southfield, Royal Oak, and Berkley).  The new district 6 is a much more reasonable district based in Royal Oak.  Brent Lamkin is the R nominee.

7. [C Detroit] Safe D
P16: 4 G18: 5 AG18: 5 P20: 7
Hamtramck city commissioner Abraham Aiyash (D), a Muslim Bernie Sanders progressive elected in 2020, is retiring, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  He represents district 9, which roughly corresponds to this new district.  Tonya Phillips (D) faces Barry Altman (R).

8. [C Detroit, Ferndale] Safe D
P16: 8 G18: 8 AG18: 9 P20: 9
Helena Scott (D), a legislative staffer, was elected to district 7 in 2020.  In 2022, district 7 was drawn as a strip from Detroit to Royal Oak.  She is running in district 8 this year.  Alex Kuhn is the R nominee.

9. [downtown Detroit] Safe D
P16: 4 G18: 4 AG18: 5 P20: 5
Joe Tate (D) was elected in 2018 and became the house D leader and speaker after the 2022 election.  His current district 10 includes the Grosse Pointes.  He is running in district 9, which includes downtown Detroit.  Michele Lundgren is the R nominee.

10. [Grosse Pointes, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 32 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
Harper Woods Council Member Veronica Paiz was elected in 2022 to district 11, which stretches from Detroit to most of St. Clair Shores.  The new district 10 includes most of the Grosse Pointes (a clear community of interest), but combines them with part of Detroit, making it unlikely that they can elect a candidate of their choice.  Griffin Wojtowicz is the R nominee.

11. [N Detroit, S Warren] Safe D
P16: 13 G18: 12 AG18: 13 P20: 16
Donavan McKinney was elected in 2022 to district 14, which contains parts of Detroit and Warren.  He will be the D nominee for the new district 11.  The R nominee is Dale Walker.

12. [Eastpointe, Detroit, St. Clair Shores] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 29 P20: 31
The old version of this district combined parts of Detroit and Macomb County.  Kimberly Edwards (D), a Detroit resident, won a surprise upset over a Macomb D incumbent in 2022.  The new district trades Roseville for part of St. Clair Shores.  Randell Shafer is the R nominee.

13. [E Warren, Roseville] Lean D
P16: 49 G18: 41 AG18: 43 P20: 48
The current district includes E Warren and a chunk of Detroit.  It was redistricted to include less of Warren and none of Detroit.  It added Roseville and central St. Clair Shores.  The new district was close at the presidential level, but is more D downballot.
Macomb County commissioner Mai Xiong (D) was elected in a 2024 special election after incumbent Lori Stone was elected mayor of Warren in 2023.  She defeated former state rep Rich Steenland (D) in the primary.  Engineer Ronald Singer is the R nominee.

14. [C Warren, Madison Heights] Safe D
P16: 42 G18: 35 AG18: 37 P20: 41
Hazel Park City Councilmember Mike McFall was elected in 2022 to district 8, which was a strip from Detroit to Madison Heights.  The new district 14 has Madison Heights, Hazel Park, and a large chuck of central Warren.  McFall is running here.
McFall defeated former Warren Mayor (2007-23) James Fouts in the primary.  The R nominee is Barbara Barber.

15. [Dearborn Heights, W Dearborn] Safe D
38-62 P16: 39 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
This district has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Dearborn City Councilmember Erin Byrnes (D) was elected in 2022.  Gary Gardner is the R nominee.

16. [SE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
22-78 P16: 23 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 23
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Stephanie Young (D) was elected to a district entirely within Detroit in 2020.  Brian Duggan is the R nominee.

17. [NE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
31-69 P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 30 P20: 31
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Laurie Pohutsky (D) is a progressive who was first elected to a swing district based in Livonia in 2018.  Rola Makki is the R nominee.

18. [Southfield, Farmington] Safe D
20-80 P16: 19 G18: 18 AG18: 19 P20: 20
Southfield City Councilman Jason Hoskins (D) was elected in 2022.  Mordechai Klainberg is the R nominee.

19. [N Farmington Hills, S Bloomfield Twp] Safe D
33-67 P16: 33 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
Farmington Hills City Council member Samantha Steckloff (D) was elected in 2020.  Kevin Hammer is the R nominee.

20. [W Bloomfield Twp.] Safe D
43-57 P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 41 P20: 43
Political activist Noah Arbit (D) was elected in 2022.  Brendan Cowley is the R nominee.

21. [Novi] Safe D
42-56 P16: 45.3 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.9 P20: 42.4
Novi city councilmember Kelly Breen (D) flipped this historically conservative seat D in 2020.  The new district moved several points left.  Residential appraiser Thomas Konesky is the R nominee.

22. [W Livonia, Plymouth, Northville] Lean D
46-54 P16: 50 G18: 46.8 AG18: 49.7 P20: 47.2
Matt Koleszar (D) was first elected in 2018, flipping a historically R seat that moved left under Trump.  This district moved several points right compared to Koleszar's old district.  Carpet cleaner Adam Stathakis is the R nominee.

23. [E Ann Arbor, South Lyon] Safe D
35-65 P16: 35 G18: 35 AG18: 37 P20: 34
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, Ann Arbor was split into four pieces.  This particularly absurd district has a slice of Ann Arbor, R-leaning Salem Township, South Lyon from Oakland County, and parts of Plymouth and Northville Townships in Wayne County.  Washtenaw County Commissioner Jason Morgan was elected in 2022.  David Stamp is the R nominee.

24. [Canton Twp] Safe D
39-61 P16: 41 G18: 37 AG18: 40 P20: 38
Ranjeev Puri (D) was elected in 2020.  Leonard Scott is the R nominee.

25. [Westland, Wayne] Safe D
37-63 P16: 40 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 40
Peter Herzberg (D) was elected in a 2024 special election after Kevin Coleman (D) was elected in mayor of Westland.  Josh Powell is the R nominee.

26. [Garden City, Inkster, N Romulus] Safe D
32-68 P16: 32 G18: 27 AG18: 28 P20: 34
Teacher Dylan Wegela (D) won in 2022.  Jeff Gorman is the R nominee.

27. [Trenton, Grosse Ile] Tossup
49.2-50.8 P16: 51.5 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.7 P20: 51.3
The downriver area has many working class voters who have moved right under Trump.  Teacher Jaime Churches (D) was elected in 2022.  Student activist Rylee Linting is the R nominee.

28. [NE Monroe, Brownstown Twp] Lean R
51-49 P16: 51.5 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.6 P20: 51.9
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Nurse Jamie Thompson (R) was elected in 2022.  Teacher Janise Robinson is the D nominee.

29. [Taylor, Huron] Lean R
51.5-48.5 P16: 51.6 G18: 44.3 AG18: 46.3 P20: 53
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Sales manager James DeSana (R) was elected in 2022.  Taylor School Board member Kyle Wright will be the D nominee.

30. [S Monroe] Safe R
37-63 P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 60
Army veteran William Bruck was elected in 2022.  Rick Kull is the D nominee.

31. [N Monroe, Belleville] Lean D
47.7-52.3 P16: 47.4 G18: 42.1 AG18: 44.1 P20: 48.8
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It combines heavily D parts of Wayne with rural R areas of Monroe.  Van Buren Township Trustee Reggie Miller (D) was elected in 2022.  She won by 5% over truck driver Dale Biniecki, who is the R nominee again this year.

32. [Ypsilanti] Safe D
21-79 P16: 22 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 22
Ypsilanti Township Trustee Jimmie Wilson Jr. was elected in 2022.  Martin Church is the R nominee.

33. [S Ann Arbor, Pittsfield Twp] Safe D
25-75 P16: 25 G18: 24 AG18: 26 P20: 23
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships.  County Commissioner Felicia Brabec (D), who was elected in 2020, is retiring to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  Legislative staffer Morgan Foreman won the D nomination.  The R nominee is Jason Rogers.

34. [Lenawee] Safe R
62-38 P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 54 P20: 58
State rep (10-14) and senator (14-22) Dale Zorn won this seat in 2022.  He is term limited (even after the initiative).  Former state rep (10-16) Nancy Jenkins, who is no longer term limited, is the R nominee.  John Dahlgren is the D nominee after losing in 2022.

35. [Hillsdale, Branch] Safe R
73-27 P16: 69 G18: 64 AG18: 66 P20: 71
Attorney Andrew Fink (R), who was elected in 2020, is running for Michigan Supreme Court.  Teacher Jennifer Wortz won the R nomination.  The D nominee is Don Hicks.

36. [St. Joseph, Cass] Safe R
66-34 P16: 63 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 65
Steve Carra (R) was first elected in 2020.  He is a pro-Trump libertarian who is close to the Karamo faction of the Michigan GOP.  After congressman Fred Upton voted for impeachment, Carra announced a run against him, and was endorsed by President Trump.  Redistricting took Carra out of the new district, and added the base of Congressman Bill Huizenga, who ran for the seat.  President Trump then offered a "complete and total" endorsement of Huizenga.  While not explicitly un-endorsing Carra, this served to push him out of the race, and he chose to run for reelection.  Upton decided not to seek reelection.
Carra won renomination easily this year after a weak showing in 2022.  Erin Schultes is the D nominee.

37. [S Berrien, W Cass] Safe R
65-35 P16: 59 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore and added more of interior Berrien County.  Teacher Brad Paquette (R) was first elected in 2018.  Angela Jones is the D nominee.

38. [Berrien to Allegan lakeshore] Lean D
48.2-51.8 P16: 46.1 G18: 44.9 AG18: 46.5 P20: 44.6
This absurd district runs about 75 miles along the Lake Michigan shoreline from New Buffalo to Saugatuck.  It is barely a mile wide at one point.  Apparently, people who live close to a lake form a community of interest.  This district promotes "partisan fairness" since it favors Ds.  Joey Andrews (D), an AFL-CIO operative, won this seat in 2022.
The R nominee is Kevin Whiteford, the husband of Allegan County state rep (16-22) Mary Whiteford, who lost by 3.6% in 2022.
39. [Van Buren] Safe R
63-37 P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore of Van Buren and added parts of Berrien and Allegan.  Pauline Wendzel (R), a businesswoman who was elected to a N Berrien district in 2018, won here in 2022.   Kerry Tapper won the D nomination.

40. [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas] Safe D
41-59 P16: 42 G18: 41 AG18: 44.6 P20: 40
This area was R-held until 2020, when county commissioner Christine Morse (D) won an open seat. She is retiring this year to seek a local judgeship.  Dr. Matt Longjohn, who was the D nominee for congress in 2018, is the D nominee this year.  The R candidate is Kalamazoo GOP chair Kelly Sackett, who lost by 17% in 2022.

41. [Kalamazoo city] Safe D
21-77 P16: 23 G18: 22 AG18: 24 P20: 23
County commissioner Julie Rogers (D) was elected in 2020 after losing earlier bids in 2006 and 2008.  The R nominee is Terry Haines.
42. [rural Kalamazoo, Plainwell] Safe R
55-45 P16: 52.9 G18: 49.4 AG18: 53.2 P20: 52.6
Matt Hall was first elected in 2018, defeating a moderate incumbent, and is now the house R leader.  He moved to Kalamazoo County from Calhoun County after being put in the same district as Sarah Lightner (R) of Jackson County.  The D nominee is Austin Marsman.

43. [Allegan, S Barry] Safe R
71-29 P16: 67 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 69
This absurd district includes the majority of Allegan County, southern Barry County, one township from Eaton County, and part of a township in Ottawa County.  Martin Township Clerk Rachelle Smit was elected in 2022 with a Trump endorsement.   Danene Shumaker is the D nominee.

44. [Battle Creek, Albion] Tossup
47.8-52.2 P16: 48.1 G18: 44.4 AG18: 47.3 P20: 49.4
This district was drawn in 2012 as a gerrymander to put the most D areas of Calhoun in one district to protect then-speaker Jase Bolger (R) in a neighboring district.  Incredibly, the redistricting commission maintained this gerrymander.  County commissioner Jim Haadsma (D) was elected to this open seat in 2018. County commissioner Steve Frisbie is the R nominee.
45. [S Calhoun, W Jackson] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Sarah Lightner (R) was first elected in 2018 in a rural Jackson County district.  Doug Murch is the D nominee.

46. [Jackson city] Tossup
54.4-45.6 P16: 48 G18: 44.4 AG18: 46.8 P20: 49.1
This district was gerrymandered by adding Chelsea in Washtenaw County and removing rural R townships.  Broadcaster Kathy Schmaltz (R) won in 2022 after the D nominee imploded due to scandal.  Jackson Mayor Daniel Mahoney is the D nominee.

47. [W Ann Arbor, SW Jackson] Safe D
37-63 P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson County.  Social work lecturer Carrie Rheingans was elected in 2022.  Teresa Spiegelberg won the R nomination.
48. [N Ann Arbor, SC Livingston] Lean D
46-53 P16: 48.1 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.5 P20: 46.6
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson and Livingston Counties.  Journalist Jennifer Conlin (D) was elected in 2022.  Brian Ignatowski won the R nomination.

49. [SE Livington, Wixom] Safe R
56-44 P16: 54.9 G18: 51.2 AG18: 53.7 P20: 53.2
Ann Bollin was first elected in 2018.  The D nominee is Andy Wood.

50. [N, W Livingston] Safe R
67-33 P16: 65 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Former Livingston County Sheriff Bob Bezotte (R) was elected in 2020.  Following the news of a messy divorce, he announced his retirement, and several candidates jumped in the race to succeed him.  One is Marine veteran and pastor Jason Woolford, who lost by 7% in district 48 in 2022.  Bezotte then reentered the race shortly before the filing deadline.  Woolford won the R nomination 34-30.
Austin Breuer is the D nominee.

51. [White Lake, Milford] Safe R
58-42 P16: 61 G18: 56 AG18: 58 P20: 59
Matt Maddock, an antiestablishment leader who is close to Trump, was first elected in 2018.  Sarah May-Seward won the D nomination.

52. [Waterford, Independence] Safe R
59-41 P16: 59 G18: 53 AG18: 56 P20: 57
Police officer Mike Harris (R) was elected in a 2022 special election, following the death of Andrea Schroeder.  Caroline Dargay is the D nominee.

53. [Pontiac, S Waterford] Safe D
33-67 P16: 30 G18: 28 AG18: 29 P20: 32
Brenda Carter (D) was first elected in 2018.  Melissa Schultz is the R nominee.

54. [N Bloomfield, Auburn Hills, Orion] Lean R
51.2-48.8 P16: 51.2 G18: 48.4 AG18: 50.8 P20: 48.3
This is a rare example of a good draw for Rs (though not very compact), which puts shaky territory in Bloomfield Township with more R Orion Township to the north.  Orion Township Treasurer and realtor Donni Steele (R) won in 2022.  Businesswoman Shadia Martini is the D nominee again after losing by 2% in 2022.

55. [Rochester Hills] Lean R
51.8-48.2 P16: 50.9 G18: 48.2 AG18: 51.1 P20: 48.1
This historically conservative wealthy suburban seat has trended left under Trump.  Rochester Hills City Council member Mark Tisdell (R) won a highly competitive general election in 2020.  Diplomat Trevis Harrold won the D nomination.


56. [Troy] Safe D
42-58 P16: 45.1 G18: 42 AG18: 44.6 P20: 41.3
Marketing manager Sharon MacDonell (D) was elected in 2022.  Dave Kniffen is the R nominee.

57. [W Sterling Heights] Lean R
52.6-47.4 P16: 52 G18: 46.4 AG18: 48.4 P20: 53.1
Oakland County Commissioner and attorney Thomas Kuhn (R) was elected in 2022.  Attorney Aisha Farooqi (D) is the D nominee again after losing by 5% in 2022.  

58. [E Sterling Heights] Tossup
48.7-51.3 P16: 52.5 G18: 45.4 AG18: 48 P20: 52.1
This district is very oddly shaped for no clear reason.  Nate Shannon (D) was first elected in 2018.  Utica City Councilman Ron Robinson won the R nomination.

59. [Shelby Twp] Safe R
65-35 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 61 P20: 63
State rep (18-21) Doug Wozniak won a 2021 special election for a Macomb-based state senate seat.  Redistricting put Wozniak in the same district as an incumbent senator, and he chose to run for state house again in 2022, defeating his successor in the primary.  Jason Pulaski is the D nominee.

60. [Macomb Twp] Safe R
58-42 P16: 59 G18: 51.4 AG18: 55 P20: 58
Former Clinton Townshp Trustee Joseph Aragona was elected in 2022.  Shelly Fraley will be the D nominee.

61. [Clinton Twp] Lean D
48-52 P16: 50.3 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.8 P20: 49.5
Mount Clemens City Commissioner Denise Mentzer (D) won this seat in 2022.  School board member Robert Wojtowicz won the R nomination.

62. [Harrison Twp] Lean R
53.4-46.6 P16: 52.8 G18: 46.1 AG18: 48.2 P20: 52.7
Alicia St. Germaine (R) was elected in 2022.  Michelle Levine-Woodman is the D nominee.

63. [Chesterfield Twp, S St. Clair] Safe R
64-36 P16: 64 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 65
St. Clair County Clerk Jay DeBoyer won this seat in 2022.  Robert Kelly-McFarland is the D nominee.

64. [E St. Clair] Safe R
61-39 P16: 58 G18: 49.5 AG18: 52.6 P20: 59
R incumbents Andrew Beeler (20-24) and Gary Eisen (18-22) faced off in 2022, with Beeler winning 67-26.  Beeler is retiring this year, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.   Joseph Pavlov won the R nomination.  John Anter won the D nomination.

65. [W St. Clair, E Lapeer] Safe R
72-28 P16: 70 G18: 62 AG18: 65 P20: 71
Navy veteran and Richmond City Councilmember Jaime Greene won in 2022.  Shirley Tomczak is the D nominee.

66. [NE Oakland] Safe R
65-35 P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Teacher Josh Schriver won this seat in 2022 on a libertarian-leaning platform.  He has attracted controversy for retweeting a meme about the 'great replacement'.  Shawn Almeranti-Crosby is the D nominee.

67. [W Lapeer, NE Genesee] Safe R
61-39 P16: 58 G18: 50.2 AG18: 54 P20: 60
Phil Green (R) was elected in 2018 in a Tuscola/Huron County district.  Redistricting placed one township from Tuscola County in this district.  Green won an 8-way primary with only 25% in 2022.
 Anissa Buffin is the D nominee.

68. [Burton, Davison] Lean R
55-45 P16: 52.5 G18: 45.5 AG18: 49.9 P20: 52.3
This area has moved significantly right under Trump.  David Martin (R), a county commissioner from Davison who upset an incumbent D in 2020 in a NW Genesee district, won this district in 2022.  Former rep (16-22) Tim Sneller (D) of Burton died while running for the D nomination, leading to Matt Schlinker winning the D nomination as a write-in.

69. [W Genesee] Safe D
41-56 P16: 41 G18: 36 AG18: 40 P20: 42
Legislative staffer Jasper Martus was elected in 2022.  Patrick Duvendeck is the R nominee.
70. [Flint] Safe D
18-82 P16: 17 G18: 14 AG18: 16 P20: 19
Due to population loss in Flint, this district expanded from being contained within Flint to containing Flint and some suburban areas.  It has a black majority.  Cynthia Neeley (D) won a 2020 special election to replace her husband Sheldon Neeley after he was elected mayor of Flint.  Rob Waskoviak is the R nominee.

71. [Shiawassee] Safe R
58-42 P16: 57 G18: 50.4 AG18: 56 P20: 60
Shiawassee County Sheriff Brian BeGole was elected in 2022.  Mark Zacharda is the D nominee again after losing in 2022.

72. [Fenton, Grand Blanc] Safe R
58-42 P16: 55 G18: 49.6 AG18: 53 P20: 55
This district added some competitive areas near Flint.  It shifted slightly left, but is still safe.  Former police officer Mike Mueller (R) was first elected in 2018.  John Dolza is the D nominee.

73. [rural Ingham] Safe D
43-57 P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 43 P20: 44
This rural Ingham district loses Delhi Township and adds part of East Lansing.  It is usually close, but never close enough for Rs to win.  Julie Brixie (D) was elected in 2018 to a district based in East Lansing and Meridian Township.  Joshua Rockey is the R nominee.

74. [S Lansing, Delhi Twp] Safe D
31-69 P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 31 P20: 31
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing.  Kara Hope (D) was elected in 2018.  Tom Izzo (not the MSU basketball coach) is the R nominee.
75. [Meridian Twp, SE Clinton] Safe D
40-60 P16: 39 G18: 35 AG18: 40 P20: 38
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits East Lansing and absorbs rural R areas.  Former Ingham County Commissioner Penelope Tsernoglou won in 2022 after losing to state rep Julie Brixie in the 2018 D primary.  Frank Lambert is the R nominee.

76. [Eaton] Lean D
44-56 P16: 47.9 G18: 42.9 AG18: 46.9 P20: 47.9
This district flipped several times over the past decade, and usually has close races.  Angela Witwer (D) was first elected with 50.8% in 2018 and was reelected with 51.2% in 2020.  Pastor Andy Shaver won the R nomination.

77. [N Lansing, SW Clinton] Safe D
38-62 P16: 37 G18: 33 AG18: 38 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing and absorbs rural R areas of Clinton County.  Leftist activist Emily Dievendorf won this seat in 2022.  Cady Ness-Smith won the R nomination.

78. [Ionia, NE Barry] Safe R
66-34 P16: 62 G18: 56 AG18: 61 P20: 63
Businesswoman Gina Johnsen won in 2022 after losing an Eaton County seat in 2020.  Christine Terpening is the D nominee.

79. [S Kent] Safe R
66-34 P16: 65 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 63
This district has most of the southern tier of Kent, plus three townships from Barry and one from Allegan.  Angela Rigas was elected in 2022 after securing the Trump endorsement.  The D nominee is Jason Rubin.

80. [Kentwood, East Grand Rapids] Safe D
44-56 P16: 42.7 G18: 43 AG18: 46.1 P20: 39.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Kent County Commissioner Phil Skaggs (D) won here in 2022.  Former Allegan County Commissioner Bill Sage is the R nominee.

81. [NE Grand Rapids, Ada Twp] Safe D
44-56 P16: 45.5 G18: 43.3 AG18: 46.6 P20: 41.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Rep. (18-24) Rachel Hood (D) is retiring, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  Kent County Commissioner Stephen Wooden is the D nominee.  Jordan Youngquist is the R nominee.

82. [SE Grand Rapids] Safe D
25-74 P16: 24 G18: 25 AG18: 27 P20: 23
Grand Rapids school board member Kristian Grant was elected in 2022.  Ryan Malinoski is the R nominee again after losing in 2022.
83. [Wyoming, SW Grand Rapids] Lean D
45-53 P16: 46.2 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.9 P20: 44
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost heavily R Byron Township and added part of Grand Rapids.  Wyoming City Councilmember John Fitzgerald (D) was elected in 2022.  
Former rep (16-22) Tommy Brann (R) is no longer term limited and is the R nominee after losing a race for state senate in 2022.  

84. [W Grand Rapids, Walker, Grandville] Lean D
44-56 P16: 47.5 G18: 43.8 AG18: 47.1 P20: 43.7
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Walker City Commissioner Carol Glanville (D) was elected 52-40 in a normally safe R district in a May 2022 special election after the election of Mark Huizenga to the state senate.
Businessman John Wetzel won the R nomination.

85. [Jenison, Zeeland] Safe R
70-28 P16: 71 G18: 69 AG18: 72 P20: 67
Bradley Slagh was first elected in 2018.  Marcia Mansaray is the D nominee.

86. [Holland] Safe R
56-44 P16: 51.7 G18: 51.4 AG18: 54.4 P20: 49.3
This Holland-area district has trended left, but is more R downballot.  Former Holland Mayor Nancy De Boer was elected in 2022.   Legislative staffer Abby Klomparens is the D nominee.

87. [Muskegon city] Safe D
38-62 P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 37 P20: 39
Will Snyder, district director for Rep. (16-22) Terry Sabo won here in 2022.  The R nominee is Chip Chipman.

88. [Grand Haven, Norton Shores] Safe R
56-42 P16: 54.5 G18: 51.7 AG18: 55.3 P20: 53.7
Greg VanWoerkom, son of state senator (02-10) Jerry VanWoerkom, was elected to the rural Muskegon district in 2018.  That district was chopped into three pieces, and he won this district in 2022.  Tim Meyer is the D nominee.

89. [E Ottawa, SE Muskegon] Safe R
69-31 P16: 65 G18: 61 AG18: 64 P20: 66
Luke Meerman (R) was first elected in 2018.  The D nominee is Lois Maassen.

90. [NC Kent] Safe R
62-38 P16: 60 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 59
Bryan Posthumus (R) was first elected in 2020.  He is the son of LG (1998-2002) Dick Posthumus and brother of Kent County Clerk Lisa Lyons.  William Higgins is the D nominee.

91. [Montcalm] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 67
Pat Outman, the son of senator (18-P) Rick Outman, was first elected in 2020.  Jason Dillingham is the D nominee.

92. [Isabella, N Gratiot] Safe R
56-42 P16: 50.8 G18: 46.4 AG18: 50.2 P20: 53
This district is drawn in the way most beneficial to Ds.  While it keeps Isabella County whole, it includes northern Gratiot County, which is the most pro-D area in any of the five neighboring counties.  Farmer Jerry Neyer (R) won this seat in 2022.  CMU manager Timothy Odykirk is the D nominee.
93. [W Saginaw, S Gratiot, N Clinton] Safe R
64-36 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Graham Filler (R) was first elected in 2018 and moved into this new district after his house was put into a D-heavy district as part of the gerrymander of the Lansing area.  He is retiring this year, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  The R nominee will be former state rep (12-18) Tim Kelly, who is no longer term limited.  He was nominated, but not confirmed for a position in the Trump administration and lost a campaigns for congress in 2020 and state senate in 2022.
Kevin Seamon is the D nominee.

94. [Saginaw city] Safe D
32-68 P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 32 P20: 32
Saginaw County commissioner Amos O'Neal (D) was elected in 2020.  Robert Zelle won the R nomination.

95. [Midland] Safe R
61-39 P16: 57 G18: 55 AG18: 57 P20: 57
Former DIA officer Bill G. Schuette, son of former AG (10-18) Bill Schuette, was elected in 2022.  Sabrina Lopez is the D nominee.

96. [Bay County] Safe R
55-45 P16: 52.3 G18: 45.9 AG18: 48.8 P20: 53.7
Bay County was long a D stronghold, but it has been moving right.  Bangor Township School Board member Timothy Beson (R) defeated a D incumbent in an upset in 2020.  Teacher Rudy Howard, Jr. is the D nominee.

97. [E Saginaw, W Tuscola] Safe R
67-33 P16: 63 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 64
This strange district neighbors four urban areas, and has an arm to take in rural areas between the tri-cities (Saginaw, Midland, and Bay City).  Former Tuscola County Commissioner Matthew Bierlein defeated an R incumbent in 2022 to win this seat.  Mark Putnam is the D nominee.

98. [the Thumb] Safe R
72-28 P16: 69 G18: 63 AG18: 66 P20: 71
Former Sanilac County drain commissioner and farmer Gregory Alexander was elected in 2022.  April Osentoski is the D nominee.

99. [Iosco, Arenac, Ogemaw, Gladwin] Safe R
68-32 P16: 65 G18: 58 AG18: 59 P20: 67
Au Gres Mayor and hunting store owner Mike Hoadley was elected in 2022 after securing a Trump endorsement.  John LeRoux is the D nominee.

100. [Mecosta, Osceola, Clare] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 67
Grant Township Board member Tom Kunse won in 2022.  Tracy Ruell won the D nomination.

101. [Newaygo, Lake] Safe R
68-32 P16: 65 G18: 60 AG18: 63 P20: 67
Former director of the Newaygo County Commission on Aging Joseph Fox was elected in 2022.  Christopher Crain is the D nominee.

102. [Muskegon to Manistee lakeshore] Safe R
61-39 P16: 56 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 58
This district was assembled from pieces of three existing districts.  Senator (18-22) Curt VanderWall (R) was previously a state rep (16-18) representing one of them.  Redistricting put him in a district largely represented by senator Jon Bumstead.  VanderWall decided to run for state house in 2022 rather than challenge Bumstead or move to a different district.  Kathy Pelleran-Mahoney is the D nominee.

103. [Leelanau, Traverse City] Tossup
48.5-49.8 P16: 49.9 G18: 46.6 AG18: 49.5 P20: 46.9
This district is gerrymandered to combine Leelanau County with the Traverse City area in a way that is the best for Ds.  Grand Traverse County is split, even though it has the right population for a single district.  Grand Traverse County Commissioner Betsy Coffia (D), who previously lost races for state house in 2012, 2014, and 2016, has most D establishment support, narrowly beat an R incumbent in 2022.
Former county GOP chair Lisa Trombley won the R nomination.
104. [S Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Antrim] Safe R
63-37 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 62
The oddly shaped district contains parts of six counties but all of none.  John Roth (R) was first elected in 2020 and moved to this district to avoid a primary with another incumbent.  Larry Knight is the D nominee.

105. [Roscommon, Crawford, Otsego, Missaukee] Safe R
69-31 P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 65 P20: 68
Otsego County Commissioner Ken Borton was first elected in 2020.  James Wojey is the D nominee.

106. [NE Lower Peninsula] Safe R
65-35 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 66
Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner Cam Cavitt was elected in 2022.  Veteran Todd Smalenberg is also seeking the R nomination.  Trina Borenstein won the D nomination. 

107. [Mackinac Bridge area] Safe R
57-43 P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 57
Property manager Neil Friske won this seat in 2022.  He is an antiestablishment conservative friendly with the Karamo wing of the Michigan GOP.  He was arrested (but not charged) due to an incident with a prostitute in Lansing.  University student Parker Fairbairn, who also ran in 2022, defeated Friske for R nomination.  Jodi Decker will again be the D nominee after losing in 2022.

108. [Menominee to Chippewa] Safe R
66-34 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 64
Menominee County Commissioner and paramedic David Prestin won this seat in 2022.  Christiana Reynolds is the D nominee.

109. [Marquette] Lean D
47-53 P16: 48.6 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.1 P20: 48
Trump won this district, but it is more D downballot.  Marquette City Commissioner Jenn Hill won this seat in 2022.  Hill faces two primary challengers.  Weatherman Karl Bohnak won the R nomination.

110. [W Upper Peninsula] Safe R
63-37 P16: 59 G18: 54 AG18: 55 P20: 59
Gregory Markkanen (R) won this historically D district in an upset in in 2018.  Kim Corcoran is the D nominee.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe D: 42 (1-12, 14-21, 23-26, 32, 33, 40, 41, 47, 53, 56, 69, 70, 73-75, 77, 81-82, 87, 94)
Lean D: 10 (13, 22, 31, 38, 48, 61, 76, 83, 84, 109)
Tossup: 6 (27, 44, 46, 58, 103)
Lean R: 8 (28, 29, 54, 55, 57, 62, 68)
Safe R: 44 (30, 34-37, 39, 42, 43, 45, 49-52, 59, 60, 63-67, 71, 72, 78, 79, 85, 86, 88-93, 95-102, 104-108, 110)
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Wednesday, October 16, 2024

2024 State Supreme Court Election Preview

A majority of states have elections for state Supreme Court in November.  Here is a guide to the contested elections.  The elections in Arkansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas seem to be the most competitive.

Ballotpedia:  2024 State Supreme Court Elections

Alabama: 
Chief:  Chief justice Tom Parker is age-limited.  Justice Sarah Stewart (R) faces local judge Greg Griffin (D).
Jay Mitchell, Tommy Bryan, Will Sellers (all R) are unopposed for reelection to the court.  Chris McCool (R), a judge of the Alabama Court of Criminal Appeals is unopposed for promotion to the court.

Arizona:  Justices Clint Bolick and Kathryn Hackett King (both R-appointed) face a retention election.  Leftists are campaigning against them due to a decision on abortion.  There is also a ballot proposition to end retention elections for judges.

Arkansas:  Chief Justice John Dan Kemp is retiring.  Justice Karen Baker (D) and Justice Rhonda Wood (R) advanced to the November runoff.  Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) will appoint a replacement for whichever justice wins.

Florida:  Justices Renatha Francis and Meredith Sasso face a retention election.  Both are conservatives appointed by Ron DeSantis (R).  Some newspapers are recommended a no vote on them.

Illinois:  
District 1 (Cook County): Justice Joy Cunningham (D) faces a retention election.
District 2 (west, central): Justice Lisa Holder White (R) faces a retention election.

Indiana:  Justices Loretta Rush, Christopher Goff and Derek Molter face a retention election.

Iowa: Justice David May (R-appointed) faces a retention election.  There is some opposition due to a decision on abortion.

Kentucky:  
District 5 (Lexington area): Justice Laurance VanMeter (R) is retiring.  Appeals court judge Pamela Goodwine (D supported) and lawyer Erin Izzo (R supported) are seeking the seat.

Louisiana:  Justice Scott Crichton (R) is age-limited.  District 2 was redrawn to be a black-majority district based in Baton Rouge.  Appeals court judges John Michael Guidry and Marcus Hunter, and lawyer Leslie Chambers are seeking the seat.  The primary election is November 5, and a runoff (if necessary) is December 7.

Maryland:  Justices Matthew Fader, Shirley Watts, and Angela Eaves face a retention election.

Bolden seat:  Former state rep Kyra Bolden (D) was appointed in 2023 to complete the term of Justice Bridget Mary McCormack.  She is running for the partial (4-year) term.  She faces Branch County circuit court judge Patrick William O’Grady (R).
Viviano seat:  Justice David Viviano (R), appointed in 2013, is retiring.  State rep Andrew Fink (R) faces law professor Kimberly Ann Thomas (D).

Minnesota: Three justices face nonpartisan elections.
Chief Justice Natalie Hudson (D-appointed) faces attorney Stephen Emery.
Justice Karl Procaccini (D-appointed) faces attorney Matthew Hanson.
Justice Anne McKeig (D-appointed) is unopposed.

Mississippi:  Four justices face nonpartisan elections.
District 1 (central) Position 3: Incumbent James Kitchens (age 81) faces state senator Jenifer Branning (R) and attorneys Byron Carter, Ceola James, and Abby Robinson.  Branning has raised by far the most money.
District 2 (south) Position 2: Incumbent Dawn Beam faces David Sullivan.
District 3 (north) Position 1: Incumbent Robert Chamberlin is unopposed.
District 3 (north) Position 2: Incumbent Jimmy Maxwell is unopposed.

Missouri:  Justices Kelly Broniec and Ginger Gooch (both R-appointed) face a retention election.

Montana:  Two justices faces nonpartisan elections in a state that has seen major conflict between the courts and the legislature.
Chief:  Chief Justice Mike McGrath is retiring.  Broadwater County attorney Cory Swanson (R) and Jerry Lynch (D supported) finished first and second in the primary.
Sandefur seat:  Justice Dirk Sandefur is retiring.  District Judge Katherine Bidegaray (D supported) and Flathead County District Court Judge Dan Wilson (R supported) finished first and second in the primary.

Nebraska:  Justice Stephanie Stacy faces a retention election.

Nevada:  Justices Elissa Cadish, Lidia Stiglich, and Patricia Lee are unopposed for nonpartisan reelection.

New Mexico:  Briana Zamora faces a retention election.

North Carolina:  One seat is up for partisan election.
Seat 6: Justice Allison Riggs (D) was appointed in 2023.  Court of Appeals judge Jefferson Griffin (R) is seeking the seat.

Ohio:  Three seats are up for election.
Incumbent Michael Donnelly (D) faces local judge Megan Shanahan (R).
Incumbent Melody Stewart (D) faces appointed incumbent Joseph Deters (R).
Appeals judge Lisa Forbes (D) faces local judge Dan Hawkins (R).

Oklahoma:  Liberal justices Noma Gurich (age 72), Yvonne Kauger (age 87), and James Edmondson (age 79) face a retention election. The conservative group People for Opportunity is leading a campaign against retention.

Oregon:  Justices Stephen Bushong, Rebecca Duncan, Meagan Flynn, Aruna Masih, and Bronson James (D-appointed) are unopposed for nonpartisan reelection.

South Dakota:  Justice Scott Myren faces a retention election.

Texas Supreme Court:  There are three R incumbents up for election.  Leftists are campaigning against them due to a decision on abortion.
Place 2: Jimmy Blacklock (R) faces DaSean Jones (D).
Place 4: John Devine (R) faces Christine Weems (D).
Place 6: Jane Bland (R) faces Bonnie Lee Goldstein (D).

Texas Court of Criminal Appeals: In the March 5 primary, R incumbents Sharon Keller, Barbara Hervey, and Michelle Slaughter lost renomination.  The three had ruled that the Texas AG was unable to prosecute voter fraud cases, leading AG Ken Paxton (R) to support challengers to the three.
Chief:  Former appeal court judge David Schenck (R) faces ADA Holly Taylor (D)
Place 7:  Attorney Gina Parker (R) faces Nancy Mulder (D)
Place 8:  Lee Finley (R) faces Chika Anyiam (D)

Utah:  Justice Matthew Durrant faces a retention election.

Washington: Three seats are up for nonpartisan election.
Position 2: Incumbent Susan Owens is age-limited.  Lawyer Sal Mungia (D supported) and judge Dave Larson (R supported) finished first and second in the primary.
Position 8: Incumbent Steven González is unopposed.
Position 9: Incumbent Sheryl Gordon McCloud is unopposed.

Wyoming: Incumbents Kate Fox and John Fenn are unopposed for nonpartisan reelection.

Results:

Alabama:  Sarah Stewart (R) won with 66%.

Arizona:  Justices Clint Bolick and Kathryn Hackett King (both R-appointed) won retention with 60%. The ballot proposition to end retention elections for judges failed 23-77.

Arkansas:  Justice Karen Baker (D) won the chief justice position 52-48 over Justice Rhonda Wood (R).  Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) will appoint a replacement for Baker.

Florida:  Justices Renatha Francis and Meredith Sasso won retention with 62-63%.

Indiana:  Justices Loretta Rush, Christopher Goff and Derek Molter won retention with 69-71%.

Iowa: Justice David May (R-appointed) won retention with 64%.

District 5 (Lexington area): Appeals court judge Pamela Goodwine (D supported) won with 77%.

Louisiana:  District 2 (Baton Rouge area)  Appeals court judges John Michael Guidry was elected unopposed after his opponents were disqualified due to failure to document their payment of taxes.

Michigan:  
Bolden seat:  Justice Kyra Bolden (D) won with 61%.
Viviano seat:  Law professor Kimberly Ann Thomas (D) won with 61%.

Minnesota: 
Chief Justice Natalie Hudson (D-appointed) won with 64%.
Justice Karl Procaccini (D-appointed) won with 57%.

Mississippi:  
District 1 (central) Position 3: State senator Jenifer Branning (R) won 42% to 36% for incumbent James Kitchens.  They move on to a runoff on November 26.
District 2 (south) Position 2: David Sullivan won 55-45 over incumbent Dawn Beam.

Chief:  Broadwater County attorney Cory Swanson (R) won 54-46 over Jerry Lynch (D supported).
Sandefur seat:  District Judge Katherine Bidegaray (D supported) won 54-46 over Dan Wilson (R supported).

Seat 6: Court of Appeals judge Jefferson Griffin (R) appears to have won 50.1-49.9 over Justice Allison Riggs (D).  There may be a recount.

Ohio:  R nominees won all three seats 55-45.
Local judge Megan Shanahan (R) beat incumbent Michael Donnelly (D).
Appointed incumbent Joseph Deters (R) beat incumbent Melody Stewart (D).
Local judge Dan Hawkins (R) beat appeals judge Lisa Forbes (D).

Oklahoma:  Voters ousted liberal justice Yvonne Kauger (age 87), with 50.2% voting against her.  Two other liberal justices, Noma Gurich (50.3%) and James Edmondson (51%) narrowly survived.  Governor Kevin Still (R) will appoint a replacement for Kauger, which should change the balance on the court which currently has 5 liberals and 4 conservatives.

Texas Supreme Court: Three R incumbents, Jimmy Blacklock, John Devine, and Jane Bland, won with 56-58%.

Texas Court of Criminal Appeals: Three R nominees, David Schenck, Gina Parker, and Lee Finley, won with 58%.

It is also notable that R nominees won 25 of 26 seats on Texas appeals courts, reversing D gains in recent years.

Position 2: Lawyer Sal Mungia (D supported) and judge Dave Larson (R supported) were close as votes continue to be counted.
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Wednesday, October 02, 2024

October 2024 Judiciary News

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Biden nominees:  Democrats are hoping that the Biden administration will surpass the 234 judges appointed by President Trump.  Biden could reach 241 judges if all his nominees are confirmed.  However, some nominees like Adeel Mangi and Sarah Netburn may not have the votes to be confirmed.  Also, Biden will not reach the 54 appeals court judges appointed by Trump.

Harris:  Carrie Severino reviews Senator Kamala Harris' absurd attacks on Trump's judicial nominees, including attacking Catholics' memberships in the Knights of Columbus.

4th Circuit: Carrie Severino lays out the extreme record of NC solicitor general Ryan Park.  His nomination is stalled, as senators Tillis and Budd are not only opposing the nomination, but say that "the White House has already been informed they do not have the votes for confirmation".

Nominations:
TBA

The Federal Judiciary:

Judgeships:  The Senate unanimously passed a bill to create 66 more federal judgeships.  The House has yet to take up the bill.  A breakdown of where and when the judgeships would be created is in this table.

Retirement:  This NBC News article frets that more federal judges aren't retiring.

Reform:  Justice Kagan has endorsed President Biden's "ethics reform" plan for the Supreme Court.  The term limits proposal would effectively remove justices Thomas, Roberts, and Alito from the court, while the ethics code would subject the justices to endless complaints by activists.

Threats:  Carrie Severino notes the threats from the left against conservative justices.  The mainstream media gives little attention to these threats.

5th Circuit:  Carrie Severino disputes leftist claims that the conservative 5th Circuit has an unusually high reversal rate compared to other circuit courts.

Federal Circuit:  The Federal Circuit has extended the suspension of Judge Pauline Newman for another year due to alleged disability.  Critics claim she is unable to fulfill her duties, but supporters say she is being mistreated due to her frequent dissents.

D-AK:  The US Judicial Conference has recommended impeaching former judge Joshua Kindred despite the fact that he has already resigned due to a sex scandal.  It is disputed whether officials can be impeached if they have already left office, but impeachment could be used to bar Kindred from holding future office.  This seems largely symbolic, as a US Senate that voted to bar him from office would be unlikely to confirm him to office.

WD-TX:  Josh Blackman details questionable behavior by Judge David Ezra regarding a case on securing Texas' border.  Ezra was appointed to D-HI in 1988, but since taking senior status in 2012 has been assigned to WD-TX.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 66 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past two months are listed below.
D-KS: Daniel Crabtree (Obama) 8/11/25 (senior)
ED-LA: Lance Africk (W) 10/1/2024 (senior)
SD-TX: Lee Rosenthal (HW) 12/1/2024 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Alaska:  Chief Justice Peter Maassen will be age-limited on January 14, 2025.  He was appointed to the court in 2012, and became chief in 2023.  Seven candidates have applied for the position, all female.

Arizona:  Justice Robert Brutinel will retire on October 31.  He is 66 and was appointed by Jan Brewer (R) in 2010.  Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) will appoint his replacement.

Connecticut:  Governor Ned Lamont (D) has nominated Justice Raheem Mullins to replace Chief Justice Richard Robinson, who retired on September 6.  Mullins was nominated by Dannel Malloy (D) in 2017.  No nominee has been announced to replace Mullins.

Michigan:  Nominees for Michigan Supreme Court were decided at state conventions on August 24.
Bolden seat:  Former state rep Kyra Bolden (D) was appointed in 2023 to complete the term of Justice Bridget Mary McCormack.  She is running for the partial (4-year) term.  Branch County circuit court judge Patrick William O’Grady won the R nomination.
Viviano seat:  Justice David Viviano (R), appointed in 2013, is retiring.  State rep Andrew Fink won the R nomination.  Law professor Kimberly Ann Thomas is the D nominee.

Montana:  The Montana Supreme Court is attempting to punish AG Austin Knudsen for representing the legislature in its investigation into misconduct in the judiciary.

Nebraska:  Chief Justice Michael Heavican will retire on October 31.  He was appointed by Dave Heineman (R) in 2006.  Governor Jim Pillen (R) will get his first appointment to the court.

New Hampshire:  Justice Hantz Marconi was placed on administrative leave in late July.  Her husband Geno Marconi has been on leave from the New Hampshire Port Authority since April.  No explanation has been given for the leave.

Numbers and Trivia:

5th Circuit:  As of October 4, the new chief judge of the 5th Circuit will be Jennifer Elrod, who was appointed by W in 2007.  She replaces Priscilla Richman, who was appointed by W in 2005.  The Presidents who appointed chief judges of the 13 appeals courts are W (2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, Fed), and Obama (1, 4, 9, DC).

History:

On Ed Whelan's Substack, "Confirmation Tales", recent posts deal with George W. Bush's nominations of lower court judges.

Resources:
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Sunday, August 11, 2024

2024 Michigan Primary Election Results

2024 Michigan Primary Election Results 

US Senate:
(R) Rogers 64 Amash 15 O'Donnell 12 Pensler 9
(D) Slotkin 76 Hill 24

Congress:
3. (R) Hudson 55 Markey 45
4. (R) Huizenga 73 Muir 27
8. (R) Junge 75 Draves 15 Hudson 10
   (D) Rivet 53 Collier 26 Pugh 20
10. (D) Marlinga 49 Young 25 Tilley 13 Busch 13
13. (D) Thanedar 54 Waters 34 Hawkins 11
There will again be no black Ds from MI in Congress next year.

State House:
3. (D) Farhat 49 Abdulmalik 40
5. (D) Weiss 48 Bailey 40
13. (D) Xiong 71 Steenland 19
14. (D) McFall 71 Fouts 29
22. (R) Stathakis 71 Charette 29
27. (R) Linting 71 Dill 21
35. (R) Wortz 52 Stockford 30 Matthew 18
36. (R) Carra 69 Perez 20 Malmborg 11 Big improvement by Carra after a weak showing in 2022.
38. (R) Whiteford 56 Lucas 44
39. (R) Wendzel 72 Overton 28
40. (D) Longjohn 70 Brayton 30 The real D defeats the party switcher.
42. (R) Hall 65 Cutshaw 35
44. (R) Frisbie 77 Harris 15 Shotts 8
48. (R) Ignatowski 68 Beliger 32
50. (R) Woolford 34 Bezotte 30 Restucchia 22 Lyke 14 Scandal-adjacent incumbent goes down.
51. (R) Maddock 59 Zeigler 41 Some voters may be tiring of Maddock.
55. (D) Harrold 53 Hawkins 47
57. (D) Farooqi 67 Fox 22
58. (R) Robinson 68 Goodrich 32
59. (R) Wozniak 74 Zott 26
61. (R) Wojtowicz 45 Cleary 40 Grossenbacher 15
64. (R) Pavlov 32 Baldwin 30 Eisen 29 No comeback for Eisen.
66. (R) Schriver 66 Levasseur 34 Schriver's controversial comments didn't hurt much.
67. (R) Green 78 Cross 13 Marden 9
70. (D) Neeley 61 Clack 39
71. (R) BeGole 67 Rathbun 33
76. (R) Shaver 85 Jones 15
78. (R) Johnsen 72 Rocha 28
84. (R) Wetzel 87 June 13
103. (R) Trombley 63 Kniss 31 Garcia 6
106. (R) Cavitt 59 Smalenberg 41
107. (R) Fairbairn 63 Friske 37 Scandal-adjacent incumbent goes down.
109. (R) Bohnak 75 Mason 15 Wagner 10 (D) Hill 80 Girard 16 Finally a different nominee in this district.

Kalamazoo County Judge:
Morse 53 Willis 28 Camfield 19 Morse and Willis move on to November.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024

2024 Michigan General Election Races

This post was last updated August 26, 2024.

Michigan's presidential electors, congressional seats, and the entire state house will be up for election November 2024.

President: Tossup
Michigan's presidential primary was on February 27.  Former president Trump won the primary with 68% to 27% for Nikki Haley.  Joe Biden won the Michigan D primary with 81%.  He was forced out of the race, and Vice President Kamala Harris was selected to be the D nominee.  Michigan was close in 2016 and 2020, and will be a battleground again in 2024.

US Senate: Tossup
Democrat Senator Debbie Stabenow is retiring.  Congresswoman (18-24) Elissa Slotkin, who represents a Lansing-area district, won the D primary with 76% to actor Hill Harper's 24%.

Former congressman (00-14) Mike Rogers, who represented the same Lansing-area district as Slotkin, won the R primary with 64% thanks in part to Trump's endorsement.  Also running were libertarian former rep (10-20) Justin Amash with 15%, Sherry O'Donnell with 12%, and businessman Sandy Pensler (who dropped out) with 9%.

Michigan Supreme Court Lean D/Tossup
Nominees for Michigan Supreme Court will be decided at state conventions on August 24.
Bolden seat:  Former state rep Kyra Bolden (D) was appointed in 2023 to complete the term of Justice Bridget Mary McCormack.  She is running for the partial (4-year) term.  Branch County circuit court judge Patrick William O’Grady is the R nominee.
Viviano seat:  Justice David Viviano (R), appointed in 2013, is retiring.  State rep Andrew Fink defeated Court of Appeals judge Mark Boonstra for the R nomination  Law professor Kimberly Ann Thomas is the D nominee.

Other Statewide Offices
Two seats on the state Board of Education and boards of trustees of U of M, MSU, and WSU will be up for election.  Out of 8 seats, Republicans won 5 in 2016, 0 in 2018, 3 in 2020, and 0 in 2022.  The candidates are as follows (incumbents are marked with *).
State Board of Education:
Republicans:  Tom McMillin *, Nikki Snyder *
Democrats:  Theodore “Ted” Jones and Adam Zemke
UM Board of Regents:
Republicans:  Sevag Vartanian, Carl Meyers
Democrats:  Denise Illitch *, Shauna Ryder Diggs
MSU Board of Trustees:
Republicans:  Mike Balow, July Maday
Democrats:  Rebecca Bahar Cook, Thomas Stallworth
WSU Board of Governors:
Republicans:  Michael Busuito *, Sunny Reddy
Democrats:  Mark Gaffney *, Rasha Demashkieh

Ballot Propositions
At present, no initiatives have qualified for the ballot.

Michigan Congressional Seats
Democrats won a 7-6 majority in Michigan's congressional delegation in 2022, after a commission gerrymandered the districts.  Districts 7 and 8 and open, and Republicans will try to win both districts. Ds will try to win the 10th district of Republican John James.  The post below examines these races in detail.

2024 Michigan Congressional Races

Michigan House
All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives are up for election. Democrats won a 56-54 majority in 2022.  There will be 8 open seats.  Both parties have potential targets to pickup.
2024 Michigan State House Races

40th District (Portage, Oshtemo) Safe democrat
Incumbent Christine Morse (D) is retiring this year to seek a local judgeship.  Dr. Matt Longjohn, who was the D nominee for congress in 2018, won the D nomination.  He defeated Lisa Brayton.  The R candidate is Kalamazoo GOP chair Kelly Sackett, who lost by 17% in 2022.
41st District (Kalamazoo City) Safe democrat
D county commissioner (12-20) Julie Rogers was elected in 2020.  The R nominee is Terry Haines.
42nd District (E Kalamazoo, Plainwell) Safe Republican
Matt Hall was first elected in 2018, defeating a moderate incumbent, and is now the house R leader.  He moved to Kalamazoo County from Calhoun County after being put in the same district as Sarah Lightner (R) of Jackson County.  He defeated trucking company owner Rich Cutshaw 65-35 in the R primary.  The D nominee is Austin Marsman.
44th District (Battle Creek, Albion) Tossup
This district was drawn in 2012 as a gerrymander to put the most D areas of Calhoun in one district to protect then-speaker Jase Bolger (R) in a neighboring district.  Incredibly, the redistricting commission maintained this gerrymander.  County commissioner Jim Haadsma (D) was elected to this open seat in 2018. County commissioner Steve Frisbie won the R nomination with 77% against Alexander Harris and Jim Shotts.

Kalamazoo Countywide Offices
All six countywide offices are up for election. Republicans hold one of six offices.

Sheriff: Safe democrat
Democrat Richard Fuller was first elected in 2008.  The R nominee is James Charon.
Prosecutor: Safe democrat
Democrat former assistant prosecutor Jeffrey Getting, who was first elected in 2012, is unopposed.
Clerk: Safe democrat
Democrat county commissioner (18-20) Meredith Place was elected in 2020.  The R nominee is Kathleen Olmstead.
Treasurer: Likely democrat
D real estate agent Thomas Whitener was elected in 2020, defeating R incumbent Mary Balkema.  He has been accused of incompetence in office.  The R nominee is former state senator (94-02), state rep (90-94) and county commissioner Dale Shugars.
Drain Commissioner: Safe democrat
Soil Erosion and Sedimentation Control agent Jason Wiersma was elected in 2020.
Surveyor: Safe democrat
Republican Bill Hahn was first elected in 2008, and has been unopposed in each election since then.  He is seeking reelection as a D, and is again unopposed.  The position is unpaid, and its holder must be a licensed surveyor.

9th Circuit Court Judge
This is a newly created seat.  In the nonpartisan primary, state rep (20-24) Christine Morse (D) got 53%, conservative attorney Mariko Willis got 28%, and Angelique Camfield got 19%.  Morse and Willis advance to the general election in November.

Kalamazoo County Commission
All 9 seats on the Kalamazoo County Commission will be up for election. Ds hold a 6-3 majority. There are no open seats and none are likely to be competitive.

2024 Kalamazoo County Commission Races
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