The Western Right

Saturday, August 06, 2011

Paul Scott Faces Recall Election

For months now, we've seen news of possible recall elections against Republican legislators. Basically, filing a recall petition is a cheap way to say that you don't like a politician. It gets media attention in a way that a press release doesn't. Then a couple people hear about it and decide to so the same thing elsewhere. But getting signatures is much harder.

After all the hype, only one recall campaign filed signatures for a November election. Republican Paul Scott of southern Genesee County is the target.

The campaign against him has yet to file its campaign finances and seems to be trying to hide them. Nonetheless, it seems clear that it is being run by the MEA, which has paid handsomely to collect the necessary signatures. Scott is being targeted due to the fact that he is chairman of the house education committee, which has passed modest teacher tenure reforms.

Scott has a lean republican district, which is where I would initially rate the recall election, assuming it makes the ballot. If Scott were recalled, there would have to be a special election to replace him.

Interestingly, Scott's district is basically chopped in half in the new redistricting plan. Half becomes part of a new lean dem district and the other half becomes part of an open safe republican district. If Scott were recalled, he could just run there next year.

Other recall campaigns were notably unsuccessful. Signatures have been collected against Al Pscholka (N Berrien), Kurt Damrow (Tuscola/Huron), and Jeff Farrington (Sterling Heights), but none were filed.

Meanwhile in Lenawee County, organizers claimed to have enough signatures. However, the person with the signatures disappeared under mysterious circumstances and they were not filed. There are rumors of a car accident involving him or a family member.

No November recall of state Rep. Nancy Jenkins as petitions fail to appear

As Jack Lessenberry argues, the recall threat has proved overrated.

Recall Threat Proves Overrated

Alumni News

I missed this at the time.

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State Rep. Paul Scott, R-Grand Blanc, and former staffer having baby

GRAND BLANC, Michigan — State Rep. Paul Scott said today he's going to be a father soon.

Scott, R-Grand Blanc, said he and a former staff member will be welcoming a son together in a couple weeks.

Scott was most recently re-elected to the 51st state House seat, which represents southern Genesee County, referring to himself as a conservative "21st century Republican."

"This is the greatest thing that's ever happened to me," he said of the baby.

Scott said he and the mother, Amanda Grove, are in a strong relationship. She left his legislative office in May before working on his campaign for secretary of state, he said, which ended in August when he lost the five-way race for the Republican nomination.

There are no plans for marriage at this point, but Scott said "you never know what's going to happen in the future."

Scott said the baby will have two "loving parents."

"This has been an incredible experience," he said.

Thursday, August 04, 2011

Michigan Redistricting

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Michigan 5th Congressional District Election Preview

Michigan’s 5th district Congressman Dale Kildee has announced his retirement after 36 years in Congress. Kildee is a liberal union democrat based in Flint. His lifetime American Conservative Union (ACU) rating is 12%. He has identified himself as pro-life and until 2010 was endorsed by Michigan Right to Life, but nonetheless voted for Obamacare. He is anti-gun, with a rating of F from Gun Owners of America.

Michigan’s current 5th district consists of Genesee, Tuscola, and parts of Saginaw and Bay counties. It was drawn in 2001 to merge the districts of Kildee and then-congressman Jim Barcia of Bay City. The Republicans who drew the district successfully packed the most democrat areas of both districts into one, along with a small piece of Congressman Mike Rogers’ district in SW Genesee. Even though he represented more of the new district, Barcia stepped aside in favor of Kildee, and ran for state senate instead.

The new 5th, in which the next election will be held (assuming Rick Snyder signs the new redistricting maps) expands a bit. It consists of Genesee, Bay, Arenac, Iosco, and parts of Saginaw and Tuscola counties. The population of the district breaks down as follows.

60.3% Genesee
15.3% Bay
14.8% Saginaw
2.4% Tuscola
2.3% Arenac
3.9% Iosco

A number of candidates have expressed interest in running to replace Kildee. As this is a democrat district, most of the action so far is on that side.

Former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee, who is the nephew of the current congressman, has announced that he is running. Kildee was treasurer from 1996 until he resigned in 2009 to become the head “of the Center for Community Progress, which promotes the reuse of vacant, abandoned and problem properties in cities and towns across the country.” He very briefly ran for Governor in 2010 before dropping out.

Former Congressman and state senator Jim Barcia has said that he is “highly likely” to run. Barcia was a state rep 1976-82, state senator 1982-92, and congressman 1992-2002. After stepping aside for Kildee, he returned to the state senate from 2002 to 2010, when he was term-limited. Barcia is a genuine moderate democrat who has an ACU life rating of 54%. He is pro-life and a hunter who opposes gun control. For conservatives, he would be a big improvement over Kildee.

State senator John Gleason has said that he is very serious about running. Gleason was a state rep from Flushing before being elected to the state senate in 2006. He is now in his second term, and would be term-limited in 2014. Gleason is pro-life and has been endorsed by the NRA.

State Rep. Woodrow Stanley is “very interested” in running. Stanley, who is black, was mayor of Flint from 1991 until he was recalled from office in 2002 due to fiscal mismanagement. A state-appointed emergency financial manager was appointed afterwards. Stanley was then elected to the Genesee county commission 2004-08. In 2008 he was elected a state representative, and is now in his second term. He would be term-limited in 2014.

Former lieutenant governor John Cherry has been mentioned as a possible candidate but has not yet expressed interest in running. He was a state senator 1986-2002, rising to senator democrat minority leader before becoming lieutenant governor under Jennifer Granholm 2002-10. He represented the suburbs of Flint. Cherry is a liberal with strong union ties but is also pro-gun.

Genesee county treasurer Deb Cherry is the sister of John Cherry. She also has been mentioned as a potential candidate but has not expressed interest in running. She was a state rep before succeeding her brother as a state senator 2002-10 representing suburban Flint. She was term-limited and was elected county treasurer in 2010, succeeding Dan Kildee. Her political positions are similar to those of her brother.

There are plenty of other current and former legislators and county officials who could also run.

Here is the percentage of the new district that they have represented.

60.3% Dan Kildee
52.4% Jim Barcia (congress)
36.3% John Gleason
24% Deb Cherry (state senate)
14.5% Woodrow Stanley (mayor)

While this is a democrat district, it is possible for Republicans to win it under ideal circumstances. For example, Rick Snyder won it in 2010. Before that, John Engler and Candice Miller won it in 1998. Against Kildee, Barcia, Gleason, or either of the Cherrys, Republicans would have no chance. On the other hand, Republicans would have a good chance of winning if Woodrow Stanley were the nominee. Even in majority-black Flint, he was recalled as mayor, and he is not likely to play well outside the city.

Republicans should have a credible candidate in case circumstances line up their way. There are several Republican state legislators who represent significant portions of the district. They are state senators Dave Robertson, Mike Green, and Roger Khan and state rep Paul Scott. The portions of the district that they have represented are as follows.

31.6% Dave Robertson
20% Mike Green
14.8% Roger Kahn
15.2% Paul Scott

Robertson would be the strongest possible Republican candidate if he were to run. This isn’t very likely, though, as he was just elected to the state senate in 2010. Green was also just elected in 2010 and lives in the part of Tuscola county that is outside the district. Kahn is in his second term and would be term-limited in 2014. He is from Saginaw township, which is split between congressional districts. Scott is currently facing a recall campaign due to his efforts to reform teacher tenure rules in Michigan and doesn’t seem likely to run.

Republican’s best choice may be John Kupiec, who held Dale Kildee to only 53% of the vote in 2010, despite receiving very little attention. He is considering running again.

The 5th district promises to have a very interesting congressional race.

Monday, August 01, 2011

Concealed Carry: We Were Right, They Were Wrong

Michigan's concealed carry law went into effect roughly ten years ago. The Free Press has an article that admits that the fears of the opponents of the law were nonsense. Several opponents who were interviewed, including various prosecutors and police, admit obliquely that what they said would happen didn't.

10 years after concealed weapons law, unclear why many in state were gun-shy

Of course, it didn't take a genius to see that they were wrong. You only needed to look at every other state that has a concealed carry law.

Western's "Weak" Education College

Julie Mack reports on the poor ranking of Western's education program.

Julie Mack blog: Does Western Michigan University have a 'weak' program for training teachers?

The National Council on Teacher Quality issued a report last week critical of U.S. teacher-training programs, based on a study of student-teacher programs at 134 colleges nationwide.

One of the programs included in the study was Western Michigan University, whose student-teacher program was listed in the report as "weak."

She had previously interviewed former Western President Judy Bailey about the issue.

When Judith Bailey was still WMU president, I once asked her point-blank about the College of Education's mediocre reputation. Without missing a beat, she smoothly changed the topic. ("Do you know what program of ours is really underrated? College of Fine Arts.")

Typical Bailey. Diether Haenicke gave an honest answer.

Before his death in 2009, I l recounted that conversation to former WMU President Diether Haenicke. I figured Haenicke would stoutly defended the College of Education. Instead, he shook his head and said his own failure to reform that particular program was one of his greatest frustrations and regrets. "I tried and tried," but there were too many people in the department resistant to change, he said.

What's wrong with the program?

Certainly, in the local K-12 community, school officials take a lukewarm view of WMU's program. The standard critique: Too many professors teaching outdated theories; too few instructors with actual experience in K-12 classrooms; too little focus on skills such as classroom management and the challenges of educating low-income students.

"When we get kids from Western, we have to retrain them," a former superintendent once told me.

Shockingly, the best way to learn how to teach is to actually do it. In some of Western's departments, graduate students can be put in the classroom teaching college classes with only a couple days of training.

I have talked to numerous College of Education students who describe sitting through endless busywork classes en route to their degrees.

As explained by Thomas Sowell in America's Education Disaster, colleges of education serve as negative filters to screen out bright and knowledgeable people who be good teachers but are unwilling to sit through years of busywork classes. Such people present a threat to the mediocre teachers who staff our classrooms. Teachers' unions and their allies use licensing to restrict the supply of teachers and hence increase their pay.

POLITICAL UPDATE--The Culture War

This update focuses on the culture war.

Allan Wall: Don’t Expect “Hispanic Family Values” To Counter Gay Agenda
Pat Buchanan: Demography And Debt Are Both Destiny—We're All Greeks Now
Gary North: Cars 2 Isn't a Lemon. It's a Saab.
Gary North: Never Say Retire
Ann Coulter: Casey Anthony -- Single Mom of the Year!
Phyllis Schlafly: Court Wraps Video Games in First Amendment

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Monday, July 25, 2011

POLITICAL UPDATE--Debt

This update focuses on debt.

Pat Buchanan: Is a Tea Party Triumph at Hand?
Gary North: Baloney
Gary North: On the Road to Government Default
Mark Steyn: The Great Charade
Pat Buchanan: An Establishment in Panic

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Does Detroit Need Immigration?

Mayor Michael Bloomberg, not content with imposing a nanny state on New York City, has weighed in with his solution to Detroit's problems.

Having read reports of Detroit's dramatic population loss (about 25% over the past decade), Bloomberg's solution is simple. Immigration!

Mayor Bloomberg: Detroit Needs Final Solution

Snyder sees immigrants as a key to state's economy

Governor Snyder apparently thinks this is a swell idea, too.

Neither Bloomberg nor Snyder seem to have addressed the most basic question. Why is Detroit losing population? They make it sound as if it were some unknowable force of nature causing Detroit to lose people.

In fact, people are fleeing Detroit because of high crime, social disfunction, high taxes, and low human capital. Anyone who can afford to leave does.

Bloomberg and Snyder seem not to understand that the whole point of immigration is to move someplace better than where you are now. Why would anyone in their right mind choose Detroit as the place to start a business? Why didn't Bloomberg and Snyder move their businesses to Detroit if it is so full of opportunity?

Instead, what Bloomberg and Snyder seem to want for Detroit is colonization, where more advanced outsiders share the blessings of civilization with the benighted native population. But colonization can only work when the colonists have political control. Imperialist Europeans are in short supply these days, anyways.

The flipside to Snyder's belief that immigration is the key to turning around Michigan's economy is apparently that existing Michigan residents are a bunch of lazy bums. While that may be true in Detroit, it is a slander against Michiganders generally.

The reason for Michigan's economic depression is dysfunctional political structures (both government and unions). Some of Snyder's other initiatives are positive reforms, but so far they have mostly been marginal changes, with tax reform being the big exception.

It is true that some immigrants come to America, start businesses, and create jobs. You know what those immigrants have in common? They aren't from the Third World. The three examples Snyder cites were Dutch, Armenian, and Canadian. Michiganders who oppose more immigration aren't upset about Canadian immigration (well, other than Granholm).

Meanwhile, most of America's immigrants continue to come from the Third World, particularly Latin American, particularly Mexico. Why didn't Snyder cite all the big Mexican-founded corporations in Michigan? Wait, there aren't any?

Conyers in Big Trouble

Others in the media have finally noticed that John Conyers is in big trouble due to redistricting.

John Conyers at mercy of redistricting

The new district that he resides in contains only 20% of his current constituents. While the district is still black-majority, that now includes the suburbs of Southfield and Oak Park which could be less sympathetic to Conyers.

The Conyers brand took a big hit when his wife Monica Conyers went to prison for corruption during her stint on the Detroit city council.

Conyers is now in his 80s, and hasn't had a tough race since he ran for Mayor of Detroit in 1993.

The Politico article lists a bunch of potential candidates, including:

Senator Bert Johnson (who has announced that he is running)
Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence (who was the democrats' token black candidate for lieutenant governor last year)
Attorney and 1998 gubernatorial nominee Geoffrey Feiger
Congressman Gary Peters

I had previously concluded that Peters' best chance of staying in Congress is the run against Conyers.

Conyers' best chance of staying in Congress is to run in the new 13th district, in which Hansen Clarke currently resides. The article mentions the possibility of two switching districts. While this probably would benefit both, neither would be safe. Conyers could still be challenged, and Clarke just won a 2010 primary challenge against Carolyn Kilpatrick.

Western's Bookstore Monopoly

Western has announced that it will purchase University Bookstore and the property that it sits on.

Western Michigan University to purchase University Bookstore, property for $1.9 million

For decades Western has had two bookstores--the university owned WMU Bookstore and the privately owned University Bookstore. Now that competition will be eliminated. Thankfully, there is competition from internet book sales. However, this does not apply to custom editions of books and coursepacks.

Will already outrageous textbook prices go even higher?

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Government Controls All Guns

That's the message of a gun "buy-back" like the one in Bronson Park yesterday. Government cannot "buy back what it didn't sell in the first place.

Kalamazoo police get dozens of guns off streets during Bronson Park event

Another absurd cliche is getting gun "off the street", as if they were just sitting there waiting to be used by criminals.

This won't make anyone safer, but it does try to stigmatize gun ownership.

Saturday, July 16, 2011

POLITICAL UPDATE--Immigration

This update focuses on immigration.

Steve Sailer: Propagandist And Traitor: NYT’s Damien Cave And State’s Edward McKeon
Pat Buchanan: Moral Of That U.S.-Mexico Soccer Game: Say Goodbye to Los Angeles
Phyllis Schlafly: Lamar Smith's E-Verify Bill Must Be Amended
James Fulford: Illegal Alien Poster Boy Jose Antonio Vargas—Lawbreaker, Liar, Displacer of American Workers, Treason Lobbyist, Thief
Hugh McInnish: Alabama’s Illegal Alien Crackdown And The Emerging Racial Polarization Of U.S. Politics
Washington Watcher: American Jobs For American Workers—No Compromise On E-Verify!

For more on immigration, see VDARE.com.

Monday, July 11, 2011

Michigan Redistricting: Alternative State House Map

The legislative portion of Michigan redistricting is finished, assuming Governor Snyder signs the maps passed by the legislature. I have highly praised the congressional and state senate maps. The state house map is another story.

I proposed my own state house map in four parts here:

Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part II: Oakland and Genesee
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part III: Macomb and the Thumb
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part IV: The Rest of the State

The Republican state house map was quite a bit different. Part of this was due to the desire to protect existing districts. This led to districts being distributed differently in the Thumb, south-central Michigan, and the northeastern Lower Peninsula.

Even on these terms, though, some parts of the map still perplex me. I decided to take another crack at the state house map. This time, I started with the Republican map and made changes in particular areas. Since my first map, Dave’s Redistricting App has added some election data for Michigan, allowing for more precise analysis.

I. Wayne County

I don’t know what Republicans were thinking in Wayne County. Currently Wayne has three Republicans. Two are strengthened under the new map. There is one more district containing the majority of Canton and Van Buren that is winnable.

The existing map has 23 districts in Wayne County. Due to population loss, the ideal number of Wayne districts is about 20.3 districts. I drew exactly 20 to avoid a county break, but the new map has about 20.3 and has a district overlapping parts of Monroe and south Wayne. This allows the Detroit districts to be slightly underpopulated, which makes it easier to maintain ten black-majority districts.

Here is the new Republican map.

Here is my alternative map.

There are several missed opportunities in the new map.

1. The district based in the Grosse Pointes was Republican until 2008. Demographics are tough here, as Harper Woods has rapidly become half-black and the district needs to gain population. The Grosse Pointes are a real “community of interest”, and should not be split as they are in the new map.

The only way to maintain a competitive district is to stretch it down to River Rouge and Ecorse, which are 20% Republican instead of 3% in Detroit. Admittedly, this is pushing it a bit, but the district has only one city break and the lines could be cleaned up by splitting a few precincts. This district is no better than a tossup (53.1% GOP average in 2006), but at least the GOP would have a chance here.

Now this would eliminate one of the black-majority districts, but it can be replaced by a district (11) that stretches from Inkster through north Dearborn Heights to western Detroit.

15. The Dearborn district was Republican until 2004. The west half of the city is fairly Republican, while the east half is heavily Muslim, and swung against Republicans after 9/11. It is possible to draw a fairly Republican district by combining west Dearborn with Allen Park and southern Dearborn Heights. This had a 54.2% GOP average in 2006.

21. Canton has the population to be its own district. This would be an improvement on the existing district, as it would lose democratic Van Buren. Canton had a 56.6% GOP average in 2006.

This necessitates some changes to district 20, based in Plymouth/Northville. It can take a corner of Livonia and the less democratic precincts of Westland and be just as Republican as in the new map.

Rating: SR/LR/TU/LD/SD
Old……. 1 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 19
GOP…… 2 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 16
ME:…… 2 / 1 / 3 / 0 / 14

The alternative Wayne map would mean three more winnable districts than in the new map. It also complies better with the Apol standards than the GOP map. It breaks only five jurisdictions outside Detroit (Dearborn three ways), while the GOP map breaks six. Their map breaks Detroit seven ways, while mine breaks it only five ways.

II. Macomb County

Macomb currently has about 8.7 districts. Due to population growth, it is entitled to about 9.3 districts. The Republicans chose to slightly underpopulate the Macomb districts so that the Thumb districts would not be disrupted. Thus Macomb gets about 9.6 districts, with one containing Chesterfield and New Baltimore in Macomb and a chunk of St. Clair.

That said, the GOP made major changes to several districts that have worked well for them the past decade. The Macomb delegation in the state house was 5R-4D all decade except for two districts that flipped in 2008 and flipped back in 2010.

Here is the GOP map.

Here is my alternative map.

In the GOP map, the St. Clair Shores/Harrison district, which was Republican except in 2008 was split, with St. Clair Shores being stuck with Eastpointe in a safe D district. Sterling Heights is split east/west instead of north/south. The ‘east’ district (25) includes a chunk of Warren and I rate it as a tossup. The north Warren/south Sterling Heights district was held by a Republican in the 90’s, so it was winnable at least back then.

My map packs all the most democrat areas into three districts. The St. Clair Shores/Harrison district is maintained, with one precinct from Clinton added for population. The Sterling Heights break is a little awkward because I wanted to put the most democrat precincts in with heavily Republican Shelby.

1. Lean R 54.3% [St. Clair Shores, Harrison district]
2. Safe D 39.8% [S Warren, Eastpointe, Center Line]
3. Safe D 48.1% [N Warren]
4. Safe D 42.7% [Roseville, SE Clinton, Mount Clemens]
5. Safe R (new) 57.7% [E Shelby, S/E Sterling Heights]
6. Lean R(-) 55.3% [Sterling Heights, Utica]
7. Lean R(+++) 54.9% [W Clinton, Fraser]
8. Safe R 59.6% [Macomb, Ray, Lenox]
9. Safe R 63.6% [W Shelby, Washington, northern tier]
10. Lean R 58.4% [Chesterfield, New Baltimore, central St. Clair]

Rating: SR/LR/TU/LD/SD
Old……. 3 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 4
GOP…… 4 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 4
ME:…… 3 / 4 / 0 / 0 / 3

My Macomb map complies better with the Apol standards. The GOP map breaks five jurisdictions, including a triple break of Warren. My alternative map breaks only four, including a triple break of Clinton.

III. Genesee County

Genesee County currently has five districts. Due to population loss, it is now entitled to about 4.6. Both my map and the GOP map have a district that overlaps Genesee and Oakland Counties. Our Oakland maps are similar and should lead to the same partisan outcome, but mine avoids breaking Waterford.

My initial Genesee map was far from ideal. The initial version of the GOP map was pretty good, but it was amended to something that appears worse.

Here are my calculations using the 2006 average. District 1 is whichever one contains Grand Blanc (Paul Scott’s home). District two is the other winnable district.

Existing map:
51. Lean R 55.5% [Grand Blanc, Fenton, Mundy, Atlas, Argentine]

My initial map:
1. Tossup 52.5% [Grand Blanc, Fenton, Mundy]
2. Lean R 56.9% [E Genesee, Brandon, Oxford]

GOP initial map:
1. Safe R 57% [Grand Blanc, Atlas, Fenton city, NW Oakland]
2. Tossup 52.9% [W Genesee, Fenton twp.]

GOP final map:
1. Lean D 49.6% [Grand Blanc, Mundy, Burton]
2. Safe R 57.8% [W Genesee, Fenton, NW Oakland]

My alternative map:
1. Safe R 59.7% [Grand Blanc, Atlas, Brandon, Oxford]
2. Tossup 53.7% [SW Genesee]

Saturday, July 09, 2011

Hooray for Wisconsin!

Governor Scott Walker signed a right to carry law. There are only nine states and DC left without right to carry, and only Illinois has no concealed carry at all.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker Signs Historic Right-to-Carry Legislation Into Law

POLITICAL UPDATE--News from Abroad

This update focuses on news from abroad.

Phyllis Schlafly: Libya and the War Powers Act
Pat Buchanan: Who Is To Blame For Losing Our Unnecessary Wars In Afghanistan And Iraq?
Pat Buchanan: Return of the Anti-Interventionist Right
Ilana Mercer: Ilana Mercer’s Preface to Into the Cannibal’s Pot: Lessons For America From Post-Apartheid South Africa
Pat Buchanan: In The Arab World And Elsewhere, People Are Seeking A Separate Existence In Nations—That Are Of, By And For Themselves Alone.
A Antonov: Stalin, Israel, And The National Question

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Thursday, July 07, 2011

Sailer on MCRI

Steve Sailer discusses the outrageous 6th circuit ruling on the MCRI.

07/04/11 - That BAMN vs. Michigan Decree: Will GOP Defend Whites Against Judge-Imposed Discrimination?, by Steve Sailer

By the way, where are all the liberals who complained about overturning 'democracy' regarding the emergency financial manager bill?

Monday, July 04, 2011

Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Passed

The state legislature has passed the Republican plan for redistricting Michigan congressional districts. The plan has been analyzed at several other sites, as congressional plans attract more attention than legislative ones.

Michigan Redistricting Maps
Redistricting: Hail To the Michigan GOP?

Here are brief district descriptions.

1. Benishek (R) Upper Peninsula, northern lower peninsula.
2. Huizinga (R) West Michigan coast, Walker, Grandville, Wyoming, Kentwood.
3. Amash (R) Kent excluding Grand Rapids suburbs, Ionia, Barry, Calhoun.
4. Camp (R) Central lower peninsula.
5. Kildee (D) Genesee, Saginaw area, west Tuscola, Bay, Arenac, Iosco.
6. Upton (R) Southwest Michigan.
7. Walberg (R) South-central Michigan.
8. Rogers (R) Livington, north Oakland, Ingham.
9. Levin (D) and Peters (D) south Macomb, Royal Oak, Bloomfield.
10. Miller (R) North Macomb, St. Clair, Huron, Sanilac, Lapeer, east Tuscola.
11. McCotter (R) Northwest Wayne, Southwest Oakland, Troy.
12. Dingell (D) Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti, Downriver, Dearborn.
13. Clarke (D) south, west Detroit, Redford, Westland, Romulus, Dearborn Heights.
14. Conyers (D) north Detroit, Grosse Pointes, Southfield, Oak Park, Farmington, Pontiac.

Republican Michigander has written more detailed district descriptions. He also compiled election results in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections and a recent congressional election broken down by jurisdiction.

Congressional District 1 - Redistricted (MI-01)
Congressional District 2 - Redistricted (MI-02)
Congressional District 3 - Redistricted (MI-03)
Congressional District 4 - Redistricted (MI-04)
Congressional District 5 - Redistricted (MI-05)
Congressional District 6 - Redistricted (MI-06)
Congressional District 7 - Redistricted (MI-07)
Congressional District 8 - Redistricted (MI-08)
Congressional District 9 - Redistricting (MI-09)
Congressional District 10 - Redistricted (MI-10)
Congressional District 11 - Redistricted (MI-11)
Congressional District 12 - Redistricted (MI-12)
Congressional District 13 - Redistricted (MI-13)
Congressional District 14 - Redistricted (MI-14)

Here are more vote totals from 2008 and the average of the governor, secretary of state, and attorney general races from 2006. (via Ryan_in_SEPA at Red Racing Horses)

District (Color) McCain/Obama DRA Average (GOP/Democrat)

MI-1 (Navy Blue) 48.4/49.8 55/45
MI-2 (Dark Green) 50.3/48.1 63.4/36.6
MI-3 (Purple) 48.7/49.6 60.6/39.4
MI-4 (Red) 48.6/49.7 58/42
MI-5 (Yellow) 35.4/63 56.2/43.8
MI-6 (Teal) 45.2/53.1 56/44
MI-7 (Gray) 47.4/50.9 57.1/42.9
MI-8 (Brown) 46.6/52 59.7/40.3
MI-9 (Blue) 40.2/58 50/49.6
MI-10 (Pink) 50.1/48.1 60.1/39.9
MI-11 (Lime) 48.3/50.2 61.2/38.8
MI-12 (Light Blue) 31.4/66.9 42.3/57.7
MI-13 (Tan) 15.7/83.2 25.8/74.2
MI-14 (Olive) 18.5/80.8 70.6/29.4

Many observers have detailed the basic features of the map. Gary Peters' district is carved into four pieces. Most of the Republican districts get safer. Thad McCotter is the big winner, with his district getting about four points more Republican. All the other incumbents get about one point safer, except for Amash, who loses one point.

Benishek adds the Grand Traverse area and loses areas north of Bay City
Huizinga loses a couple northern counties and takes some Grand Rapids suburbs from Amash
Amash takes Calhoun from Walberg
Camp takes Clinton and south Schiawassee back from Rogers (he had them in the 90s)
Upton adds north Allegan, a heavily Republican area
Walberg loses Calhoun (including Mark Schauer's base) and takes Monroe from Dingell
Rogers takes some of north Oakland from Peters
Miller takes the majority of Tuscola from Kildee and loses a chunk of Sterling Heights
McCotter loses Redford, Westland, and Van Buren and adds Waterford and Troy

The districts are all safe for their current incumbents.

Nonetheless, there are some issues that have either gone unremarked or misunderstood.

3. Some commenters have speculated that the legislature was trying to weaken Amash. I would have preferred that Huizinga take part of Grand Rapids rather than the suburbs. Nonetheless, this district is not vulnerable in the general election and is the second or third most Republican in Michigan.

Some have also speculated that they may have wanted to weaken Amash for a primary challenge by former secretary of state Terri Land. I would be very skeptical of this, as Amash has not voiced any complaints about the map. Of the area Amash lost, he did well in Wyoming, Walker, and Grandville in the primary. Kentwood was dominated by Bill Hardimann, who was mayor there before he was a state senator.

Calhoun County may have something of a reputation for moderation, but this is exaggerated. Much of this has to do with longtime state senator Joe Schwarz. But it has also voted for state reps Jerry VanderRoest and Jase Bolger, who are hardly moderates.

Nonetheless, Amash won almost all areas of the district over two credible primary opponents. The only way he would have a chance of losing a primary is if Right to Life didn't endorse him. Some folks were miffed when he voted present on defunding Planned Parenthood. (He supports defunding them but didn't like singling out an organization.) As long as Amash has the support of the Devos family, I can't see Right to Life abandoning him.

6. People keep saying that the sixth district would be vulnerable as an open seat. I don't agree. Their opinion seems to follow from Presidential election results. People don't realize that John McCain publicly pulled his campaign out of Michigan, which netted him the votes of some upset independents and joiners who wanted to be on the winning side.

While the sixth has occasionally gone democrat at the top of the ticket, this doesn't hold in downballot races. The district has all Republican state senators. Moreover this has been true for many decades, with term limits ensuring frequent turnovers. Only the Kalamazoo seat has been close, and it has still leaned Republican.

There is one solidly democrat state representative in Kalamazoo and seven Republicans. Again, it has stayed this way for many decades. Only two of the Republican districts have even had close races in 2008. Only one county commission has had a democrat majority (Kalamazoo, 2006-2010).

9. Commentators have discussed the options for Gary Peters. The consensus (which is correct) is that he would have no chance against Sander Levin. Actually, he might not have an easy time even if Levin retired. The new district 9 is based in south Macomb, which likes a particular type of democrat. Macomb democrats are white, blue collar, pro-union, pro-gun, and often pro-life. Peters doesn't fit the bill.

The other widely discussed option is running in McCotter's district. But this district has basically no democrat areas left. Peters would lose here.

Oddly the option that seems clearly the best shot for Peters does not seem to have been mentioned anywhere. He could run against John Conyers in the new 14th district. He would certainly take some flack for running in a black-majority district, but that hardly makes it unwinnable. Due to clever line-drawing, Conyers has only about 20% of his old constituents. Part of that black majority is Pontiac, which is currently in Peters' district. Southfield is full of middle-class blacks who fled Detroit, and probably wouldn't be thrilled with Conyers.

Conyers is 82 and hasn't had a remotely competitive race (primary or general) in decades. His wife Monica is in state prison for corruption when she was on the Detroit city council. I suspect that he may be vulnerable to a strong primary challenge.

11. Thad McCotter is currently running for president, and nobody seems quite sure why. The best guess I've heard is that he is hoping to get a talk show. People seem to think that McCotter will not run for reelection, though I don't know that this is certain.

If he doesn't the seat will be open. Some commenters assume that term-limited state rep. Marty Knollenberg is a shoo-in for the nomination. True, he is the son of Congressman Joe Knollenberg, who was defeated by Peters in 2008. But Knollenberg has had Republican detractors on both the left and the right. He was primaried by liberal Republican former state rep. Pat Godchaux in 2006. She got about 30%.

I would expect a tough fight for the nomination for this seat. A top candidate for conservatives and the Tea Party if he chose to run would be Senator Pat Colbeck of Canton.

Michigan House to Vote on E-Verify

From Fox News Latino (!!)

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2011/06/27/michigan-legislature-to-vote-soon-on-immigration-bill/

Dave Agema's bill to mandate E-Verify in Michigan may be coming to a vote soon in the state house. E-Verify is a federal program for employers to easily verify whether their employees are in the country legally.

Rick Snyder has been an open borders type, so it isn't clear whether he would sign this. The Farm Bureau opposes having to hire people who are in this country legally.

Sunday, July 03, 2011

POLITICAL UPDATE--Spending

This update focuses on spending.

Gary North: Geithner's Victims of Last Resort
Gary North: Austerity Is Good
Thomas Sowell: The Missing Money
Gary North: The Federal Debt Elevator: Going Up
Gary North: When TBTF Meets TBTK
Gary North: The Safe Banking Fantasy
Mark Steyn: Discredited

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

POLITICAL UPDATE--The Culture War

This update focuses on the culture war.

Gary North: Never Say Retire
Pat Buchanan: Gay Marriage And The Death of Moral Community
Thomas Sowell: Is Democracy Viable?
Steve Sailer: Immigration/Invasion/Demographic News Funnier If You Get The Joke—Which Is ALWAYS On America
Steve Sailer: The New York Times's Jonathan Mahler On Arizona: Immigration Policy As Fantasy Baseball For Liberals
Phyllis Schlafly: The Cost to Taxpayers of Missing Fathers
Steve Sailer: Dallas Mavericks’ Dirk Nowitzki And U.S. Basketball’s De Facto Discrimination Against Whites
Steve Sailer: Republican Sports Fans And The Affirmative Action They Cheer For
Gary North: Time To Get Rich

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Saturday, July 02, 2011

Michigan Redistricting: Legislative Maps Passed

The Michigan legislature has passed the Republican legislative redistricting plans on mostly party-line votes. I have previously analyzed the Republican proposals, but the plans have been amended since then. I posted updated analyses on the political group blog Red Racing Horses, which is the conservative counterpart to the old Swing State Project.

Michigan Redistricting: Republican State Senate Map Passed

Michigan Redistricting: Republican State House Map Passed

The only changes to the senate plan were in Wayne County, where the Republicans agreed to the democrats' plan. This has no partisan impact, but it made the districts a little more compact and friendly for their incumbents. Two Detroit senators voted for the final map.

I have to report that I made one mistake in my senate analysis. The district containing Saginaw County (32) dropped Gratiot and added Western Genesee. I had assumed that this made the district worse, but running the numbers showed that it actually got a bit better. This district is still a tossup.

The house plan changed in S Wayne, fixing one of the problems I mentioned. The break on Canton was changed. Most significantly, the map was redrawn in Genesee. I don't much like the new Genesee map, and I think the first one was better.

In addition to the problems I mentioned before, I noticed that it is possible to draw tossup/lean R districts based in the Grosse Pointes, W Dearborn, and Canton. I don't know what the GOP was thinking in its Wayne County map.

Well, it's all over now, assuming Rick Snyder signs the maps.

Friday, July 01, 2011

Ann Coulter in Kalamazoo

Ann Coulter recently spoke in Kalamazoo.

Ann Coulter dishes up dirt on liberals during visit to Kalamazoo

-----------------------------

KALAMAZOO - Author and political commentator Ann Coulter didn't take long to set the tone for her 50-minute discussion Saturday at the Radisson Plaza Hotel and Suites.
"It's so good to be back in Michigan, which I've discovered is Native American for 'No more Granholm,'" said Coulter, who was in Kalamazoo to promote her new book, "Demonic: How the Liberal Mob Is Endangering America."

About 50 people paid $50 each to attend a breakfast with Coulter, and about 300 attended book-signing that did not charge admission.

From the onset at the book-signing, Coulter made punchlines out of President Barack Obama, Anthony Weiner, Bill Clinton, Kwame Kilpatrick, Osama bin Laden and others.
Her candid observations were delivered similar to the routine of a standup comedian and yielded the same results from a partisan and appreciative audience.

Coulter, 49, condemned America's involvement in Libya and Afghanistan. Of the latter, she said it's a terrible country with no natural resources, no oil and 70 percent of its people are illiterate.

"There are more goats in Afghanistan than there are flush toilets," she said. "If Obama is so interested in getting rid of dictators, why doesn't he start with (U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security) Janet Napolitano?"

Coulter, a University of Michigan law school alumna, kept the mood light and the audience laughing by dishing out more observations and opinions.

She said contrary to what Obama has said, the killing Osama bin Laden is not the end of terrorism.

"No more than killing Kenny Rogers would be the end of country music," she said. "(Al-Qaida) has vowed revenge and they're really ticked off at us. What were they before, just moody?"

Regarding the care that terrorist prisoners receive at Guantanamo Bay, Coulter said health coverage, exercise, eight hours of sleep and three meals daily shows the prisoners are living better than many free Americans do. Coulter said she's been treated worse at Holiday Inn Express.

Looking ahead to presidential elections next year and in the future, Coulter said the Republicans boast "a strong farm team," led by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Coulter made no secret her support for Christie as a Republican candidate for president next year.

His only flaw, she said, is that "he's too normal to run for president." Coulter also acknowledged Mitt Romney as a viable candidate.

Coulter's Kalamazoo appearance - the fourth of five stops in Michigan this week - was sponsored by Americans For Prosperity. Its deputy state director, Annie Patnaude, said Coulter's views are consistent with ideals supported by the Lansing-based group, including a smaller and financially responsible government.

Battle Creek resident J.D. Davis, 67, said he was impressed with Coulter's presentation and appreciated her humorous spin.

"I appreciate her strong conservative principles and straight talk," he said. "I've always wondered why Congress doesn't stand up to the president ... I have respect for the president's position but the laws that govern the people should be the same laws that govern the president as well."

Davis said he is frustrated that high-profile elected positions, including president, are filled by people who have made a career out of being self-serving politicians.
"That's why I'd vote for a guy like (chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) Herman Cain. He's just a regular guy, a smart businessman who would make a good president because he's not a politician," Davis said.

Kim Robbins, 43, also from Battle Creek, said she is tired of politicians who say one thing when they run for office and do another once they're elected. Robbins said she shared many of the same views on the world and politics as those expressed by Coulter.

"A lot of decisions made right now will have an impact on my kids 10, 20, 30 years form now, and I don't think a lot of (politicians) look that far forward," Robbins said.

"I try to have open-minded discussions with my oldest kids about Democrats and Republicans, why they make the decisions they do and what they stand for ... it's important because my kids will be the next generation impacted by what happens under Obama and the next president."

Questioning Ann Coulter

I missed this one at the time of Ann Coulter's appearance at Western more than five years ago. (See the February 2006 archive for our coverage at the time.) Julie Mack provides some of the usual liberal sniveling.

From the archives: Julie Mack's take on Ann Coulter's 2006 appearance at Western Michigan University

Regarding Coulter's alledgedly disrespectful treatment of questioners, none of their questions were worth a serious response. See this comment by Chris.

I was there that night working the event. Not every question was "heartfelt," including one question I had to yank the mic away from. And the 20 uniformed police officers operating metal detectors outside the room were required because some not-so-nice students didn't like Pat Buchanan nimbly picking their arguments apart the year before. But you are right, she is pretty tough, that is her shtick. I think it's popular because liberals in general are so disdainful of conservatives (especially on a college campus) that it's refreshing when some conservatives see another refuse to be browbeaten into apologizing for their very existence. On an individual level, she's pretty nice. She even said I had a nice tie...

I concur that Coulter is one of the nicest people that I have ever met.

Outrageous!

A 6th district federal appeals court panel has struck down the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative, which bans racial discrimination.

http://www.detnews.com/article/20110701/SCHOOLS/107010416/State-to-fight-ruling-against-ban-on-race-in-college-admissions

Thankfully, Attorney General Schuette will fight this ruling.

There are a couple facts the media conveniently declines to mention. The two judges in the majority, R. Guy Cole Jr. and Martha Craig Daughtrey, are both Clinton appointees. (The third judge is a Reagan/Bush 43 appointee.

Second, the group that filed this lawsuit, By Any Means Necessary (BAMN) is a front group for the communist Revolutionary Workers League. See the post below for documentation.

BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY

MCRI Upheld

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Michigan Redistricting: Official Republican State House Map Released

Michigan Republicans released their official proposal for the state house of representatives district map on Friday.

Wayne Co., Detroit lose clout under GOP plans
Redrawn plan to have ripple effect

For comparison, here is the current state house map.

This author has previously proposed a state house redistricting plan broken into four parts. The basic rules that any plan must satisfy are explained in the first article.

Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part II: Oakland and Genesee
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part III: Macomb and the Thumb
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part IV: The Rest of the State

Many sections of this map are quite similar to the current map, particularly Southwest, south-central, UP, the Thumb, and south Oakland. Wayne loses almost three house districts, with most of the losses coming from Detroit. These are distributed to other parts of the state. Roughly speaking, the new seats are in central Macomb, Ann Arbor suburbs, and Grand Rapids suburbs. Other demographic changes were smaller, and are detailed in the fourth article above.

Overall, this map breaks 23 counties, including three double breaks (St. Clair, Kent, Kalamazoo). The current map breaks 24 counties with two double breaks (St. Clair, Ottawa). My proposed map breaks 22 counties, including three double breaks (St. Clair, Jackson, Kalamazoo).

This map also breaks 18 cities/townships, including breaking Detroit seven (!) ways, and a triple breaks in Warren. These breaks are in Wayne (7), Macomb (5), Oakland (3), Flint, Ann Arbor, and Lansing.

The current map breaks 17 cities/townships, including a triple break for Detroit. These breaks are in Wayne (6/8), Macomb (4), Oakland (2), Genesee (2), Ann Arbor, Lansing, and Grand Rapids. My map breaks 13 cities/townships, including breaking Detroit four ways and two double breaks (Sterling Heights, Clinton Twp). These breaks are in Wayne (5/8), Macomb (3/5), Oakland (2), Flint, Ann Arbor, and Lansing.

There are 12 black-majority districts, ten based in Detroit, and one each in Southfield and Flint. This is the same as the current map despite population loss in Detroit.

DISTRICT DESCRIPTIONS

We provide proposed district number, corresponding current district number, political rating, and geographic description.

1.-10. (1-12,17) Safe D [Detroit]
11. (16) Safe D [Inkster, Garden City]
12. (22) Safe D [Taylor, Romulus]
13. (?) Safe D [Southgate, Allen Park, Dearborn Heights]
14. (13) Safe D [Riverview, Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, Melvindale]
15. (15) Safe D [Dearborn]
16. (18) Safe D [Westland, Wayne]
17. (56) Tossup [N Monroe, Sumpter, Huron]
18. (24) Safe D(---) [St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe]
19. (19) Safe R [Livonia]
20. (20) Safe R(++) [Plymouth, Northville]
21. (21) Tossup [Canton, Van Buren]
22. (42) Safe D [Roseville, E Warren]
23. (23) Tossup [SE Wayne]
24. (new) Safe R(++++) [Harrison, N Clinton, SW Macomb]
25. (25) Tossup(++) [E Sterling Heights, NC Warren]
26. (26) Safe D [Royal Oak, Madison Heights]
27. (27) Safe D [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park]
28. (28) Safe D [W Warren, Center Line]
29. (29) Safe D [Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Orchard Lake]
30. (30) Safe R [W Sterling Heights, Utica, SE Shelby]
31. (31) Safe D [S Clinton, Fraser, Mt. Clemens]
32. (32) Lean R [Chesterfield, C St. Clair]
33. (33) Safe R [NE Macomb, Macomb Twp.]
34. (34) Safe D [Flint]
35. (35) Safe D [Southfield]
36. (36) Safe R [Shelby, Washington, Bruce]
37. (37) Safe D [Farmington]
38. (38) Safe R [Novi, Lyon]
39. (39) Lean R(+) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom]
40. (40) Safe R [Bloomfield, Birmingham, E West Bloomfield]
41. (41) Safe R [Troy, Clawson]
42. (66) Safe R [SE Livingston]
43. (43) Safe R(+) [Waterford, Independence]
44. (44) Safe R [Springfield, White Lake, Highland, Milford]
45. (45) Safe R [Rochester, S Oakland Twp]
46. (46) Safe R [NE Oakland]
47. (47) Safe R [N Livingston]
48. (?) Lean D(+) [Genesee W tier, Fenton, Mundy]
49. (48) Safe D [Flint Twp., Mt. Morris, Vienna, Thetford]
50. (50) Safe D [Burton, Genesee, Davison, Richfield, Forest]
51. (51) Safe R(+) [Grand Blanc, Fenton, NW Oakland]
52. (52) Lean R(++) [W Washtenaw]
53. (53) Safe D [Ann Arbor]
54. (54) Safe D [Ypsilanti]
55. (new) Lean D(+) [Pittsfield, NE Ann Arbor, York, Augusta]
56. (55) Tossup [S Monroe]
57. (57) Tossup [Lenawee]
58. (58) Safe R [Branch, Hillsdale]
59. (59) Safe R [St. Joseph, E Cass]
60. (60) Safe D [Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp.]
61. (61) Safe R(+) [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde]
62. (62) Lean D(-) [Battle Creek, Albion, N Calhoun]
63. (63) Safe R [E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun]
64. (64) Tossup [Jackson city, W Jackson]
65. (65) Lean R [N Jackson, SE Eaton]
66. (80) Safe R [Van Buren, Cooper, Alamo, Parchment]
67. (67) Lean R(+) [S Ingham]
68. (68) Safe D [Lansing]
69. (69) Safe D [East Lansing, Meridian]
70. (70) Lean R [Montcalm, N Gratiot]
71. (71) Lean R [Eaton]
72. (72) Safe R [Kentwood, Gaines, NE Allegan]
73. (73) Safe R [Grand Rapids Twp, Plainfield, NE Kent]
74. (new) Safe R(++++) [Grandville, Walker, Alpine, NW Kent]
75. (76) Safe D [central Grand Rapids]
76. (75) Tossup [peripheral Grand Rapids]
77. (77) Safe R [Wyoming, Byron]
78. (78) Safe R(+) [S Berrien, SW Cass]
79. (79) Safe R [N Berrien]
80. (88) Safe R [Allegan]
81. (81) Safe R [NW, E St. Clair]
82. (82) Safe R [Lapeer]
83. (83) Lean R [Sanilac, Port Huron]
84. (84) Lean R [Tuscola, Huron]
85. (85) Safe R(+) [Shiawassee, W Saginaw]
86. (86) Safe R [SE Kent, N Ionia]
87. (87) Safe R [Barry, S Ionia]
88. (74) Safe R [NE Ottawa]
89. (89) Safe R [W Ottawa]
90. (90) Safe R [Holland]
91. (91) Lean R [S, W Muskegon]
92. (92) Safe D [Muskegon city]
93. (93) Safe R [S Gratiot, Clinton]
94. (94) Safe R [Saginaw Twp, E Saginaw]
95. (95) Safe D [Saginaw city]
96. (96) Safe D [Bay]
97. (97) Safe R(+) [Arenac, Gladwin, Clare, E Osceola]
98. (98) Safe R [C Midland, N Bay]
99. (99) Lean R [Isabella, W Midland]
100. (100) Safe R [Newaygo, Oceana, Lake]
101. (101) Lean R [Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Mason]
102. (102) Safe R [Wexford, W Osceola, Mecosta]
103. (103) Safe R(++) [Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw]
104. (104) Safe R [Grand Traverse]
105. (105) Safe R [Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda]
106. (106) Lean D [E Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco]
107. (107) Lean R [Emmet, Mackinac, Chippewa, N Cheboygan]
108. (108) Lean R [Delta, Menominee, Dickinson]
109. (109) Safe D [Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, Luce]
110. (110) Lean D [W Upper Peninsula]

Rating: SR/LR/TU/LD/SD
Old……. 35 / 18 / 12 / 4 / 41
GOP…… 45 / 14 / 8 / 5 / 38
ME:…… 45 / 19 / 5 / 2 / 39

ANALYSIS

My initial reaction to this map was negative. Having analyzed it, I’m a little more favorable, but there are still some real problems. It appears that excessive consideration was given to protecting existing incumbents. But this makes little sense when they will all be term-limited out of office by 2016 at the latest. It is selfish to put short-term incumbents ahead of the long-term interests of the party.

On the plus side, Republicans will gain two of the three new seats that Wayne lost. Various other districts are shored up in
• Plymouth/Northville (loses Wayne)
• Waterford (loses N W Bloomfield, S Waterford)
• W Washtenaw (loses NE Ann Arbor)
• SW Kalamazoo (loses W Kalamazoo Twp)
• S Berrien (loses Dowagiac)
• Shiawassee (loses Bath)
• Clare/Gladwin (loses N Bay)
• NC LP (adds Kalkaska)

Districts are made more competitive in
• West Bloomfield (loses S West Bloomfield)
• Sterling Heights/Warren (adds more of Sterling Heights)
• S Ingham (trades precincts in Lansing)
• Peripheral Grand Rapids (adds W Grand Rapids)

Here are the problems.

1. The map does not comply with the Apol standards as well as either the current map or my proposed map. While the number of county breaks are close in all three, the number of city/township breaks is much larger in the proposed map. This is despite the fact that the map is less favorable to Republicans than my map.

2. Pat Summerville is cut out of his Wayne southern tier district and given largely new territory in Monroe. Most of the territory he won is without an incumbent.

3. There could easily be another lean R district in the Oakland/Genesee area. The proposed map gives Paul Scott a safe district, but at a cost. I drew a district that overlapped Genesee and Oakland and leans R. I also had one fewer break in Oakland.

4. Rick Olsen is given a bad “new” district with the addition of part of Ann Arbor. Admittedly, there aren’t a lot of great options in Washtenaw, though.

5. District 62, a swing district in Calhoun, is effectively sacrificed to the democrats for the decade. All the democrat areas of Calhoun (Battle Creek, Springfield, Bedford, and Albion) are put in one district. Almost certainly the reason this was done is the make the already safe district (63) of Speaker Jase Bolger even safer. In my map, I kept 63 pretty safe but had it absorb Albion and Bedford, giving the GOP a good chance of winning 62. I certainly understand why this was done. But frankly, it is selfish to protect an already safe incumbent who has one term left at the expense of sacrificing a winnable seat for a decade.

If these problems were corrected, the map would be stronger. As the map is still a proposal, there is time for the house Republicans to do the right thing.

Previous articles on Michigan redistricting:
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible Congressional Maps
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part II: Oakland and Genesee
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part III: Macomb and the Thumb
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part IV: The Rest of the State
Michigan Redistricting: Analysis of Democrats State Senate Plan
Michigan Redistricting: Official Republican State Senate Map Released

POLITICAL UPDATE--Government

This update focuses on government.

Gary North: Confessions of a Washington Reject
Thomas Sowell: Different Decisions
Steve Sailer: Morgenson And Rosner's Reckless Endangerment: On Trail Of Minority Mortgage Meltdown—But Where’s Dubya?
Steve Sailer: AEI’s Wallison Wimps Out On Minority Mortgage Meltdown
James Edwards: Pending Patent Bill Puts 'Global Harmonization' Above American Innovation
Phyllis Schlafly: The Patent Bill is Unconstitutional
Michelle Malkin: Project Gunrunner: Obama's Stimulus-Funded Border Nightmare

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Michigan Redistricting: Official Republican State Senate Map Released

The Michigan Republicans have released their official proposal for the new state senate redistricting plan.

Senate Redistricting Map Weakens Detroit, Wayne County

For comparison, here is the current state senate map.

This author has previously proposed two senate redistricting plans and analyzed the state democrats’ official proposal. The basic rules that any plan must satisfy are explained in the first article.

Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps
Michigan Redistricting: Analysis of Democrats State Senate Plan

The Republican plan bears significant resemblance to my first plan. Many of the differences can be explained by trying to avoid putting two senators in the same district. The plan manages to avoid putting any non-term-limited senators together, which is no small feat, as I have seen when drawing maps.

Overall, this is a very solid plan. It should guarantee a Republican majority for the next decade. It is also a cleaner map (outside Wayne County) than the current map is. Nonetheless, there are a few aspects of the map I don’t care for.

First, I’ll describe the districts and then offer analysis of them. The numbers in parentheses are the old districts that the new ones roughly correspond to.

1. (2) Safe D [N Detroit, Grosse Pointes, Redford] Bert Johnson
2. (?) Safe D [central Detroit, Highland Park, Lincoln Park, Southgate, Allen Park] (open?)
3. (1) Safe D [Detroit riverfront, Downriver] Coleman Young
4. (3) Safe D [West-central Detroit, Dearborn, Melvindale] Morris Hood
5. (5) Safe D [W Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Garden City, Inkster] Tupak Hunter (TL)
6. (?) Safe D [SW Wayne, Westland, Taylor] Hoon-Yung Hopgood, Glenn Andersen (TL)
7. (7) Safe R(+) [Livonia, Canton, Plymouth, Northville, Wayne city] Patrick Colbeck
8. (11) Safe R [N/E Macomb] Jack Brandenburg
9. (9) Safe D [Warren, Roseville, Eastpointe, Fraser, S Clinton] Steven Bieda
10. (10) Safe R(++) [Sterling Heights, Macomb, N Clinton] Tory Rocca
11. (14) Safe D [Farmington, Southfield, Oak Park, Madison Heights] Vincent Gregory
12. (12) Safe R [NE Oakland, Pontiac, Bloomfield Twp.] Jim Marleau
13. (13) Safe R(+) [Troy, Rochester, Royal Oak, Birmingham] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. (26) Safe R(++) [SW Genesee, NW Oakland, Waterford] David Robertson
15. Safe R [SW Oakland] Mike Kowall
16. Safe R [Jackson, Hillsdale, Branch] Bruce Caswell
17. Tossup(-) [Monroe, Lenawee] Randy Richardville (TL)
18. Safe D [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Rebekah Warren
19. Safe R(++) [Calhoun, Barry, Ionia] Mike Nofs
20. Tossup(-) [Kalamazoo County] Tonya Schuitmaker (most of current district)
21. Safe R [Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph] John Proos
22. Safe R [Livingston, W Washtenaw] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Eaton, Clinton, Shiawassee, NE Ingham] Rick Jones
25. Safe R [St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron] Phil Pavlov
26. (new) Safe R(++++) [VanBuren, Allegan, Kentwood] Tonya Schuitmaker (residence)
27. Safe D [Flint, central Genesee] John Gleason (TL)
28. Safe R [N Kent, Walker] Mark Jansen (TL)
29. Tossup [Grand Rapids, SE Kent] Dave Hildenbrand
30. Safe R [Ottawa County] Arlan Meekhof
31. Lean R(+) [Bay, Tuscola, Lapeer] Mike Green
32. Lean D(-) [Saginaw, W Genesee] Roger Khan (TL)
33. Safe R [Montcalm, Isabella, Gratiot, Mecosta, Clare] Judy Emmons
34. Tossup(-) [Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [NC Lower Peninsula] Darwin Booher
36. Tossup(-) [NE Lower Peninsula, Midland] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [NW Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Howard Walker
38. Tossup [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa, Luce] Tom Casperson

Rating: SR/LR/TU/LD/SD
Old……. 13 / 6 / 7 / 1 / 11
New…… 19 / 1 / 6 / 1 / 11

COMMENTARY:

The Republican map has the minimum possible six counties broken, with a double break in Genesee. One of my maps also did this, while the other avoided a double break. The democrats’ map had seven breaks plus a double break.

The Detroit districts are pretty messy. However, this is necessary to maintain five black-majority districts while also limiting city breaks. This map manages to avoid breaking Wayne. Detroit is split five ways, which is essential since any all-Detroit district would have too large a black population. I particularly like that they used my “8 Mile district” (1), stretching from the Grosse Pointes to Redford.

Patrick Colbeck (7) gets safer, trading the southern tier for Livonia. Republicans have given up on having two senators in Wayne, which is no longer realistic due to changing demographics. Colbeck would be a strong conservative candidate to replace Thad McCotter when he moves on.

In Macomb, Republicans finally gave in to temptation and split Clinton Township. With no splits, the map gets very difficult for Republicans, while adding just one split makes it possible to put the most democrat areas of the county in one district (9).

Meanwhile, Tory Rocca (10) loses democrat Roseville and S Clinton, adding Macomb Twp. This district contains almost all of Leon Drolet’s old state house district. Could the libertarian-conservative Drolet primary the moderate pro-union Rocca?

Jack Brandenberg (8) adds St. Clair Shores, which was in his old state house district. This district is a little less Republican, but still safe.

District 11 pulls Madison Heights from 13, which drops Bloomfield Twp. and adds Rochester. With John Pappageorge term-limited, this district could see a primary between establishment conservative Marty Knollenberg and staunch conservative Tom McMillin. Knollenberg has announced his intention to run for congress against Gary Peters, but with Peters’ district all but certain to be carved up, he won’t have a district to run in.

District 12 trades Rochester for Bloomfield Twp. It should still be safe. District 15 only loses population to Dave Robertson (renumbered 14), whose district is now primarily Oakland-based. It loses Mt. Morris and Burton, becoming safe.

Bruce Caswell (16) loses St. Jospeh and Lenawee, adding Jackson. This is identical to the 90’s Jackson-based district. Jackson will likely go a fourth straight term without a home-county senator, but when Caswell is term-limited, it should finally have one again.

Randy Richardville (17) is term-limited, and his district becomes a tossup, losing chunks of Jackson and Washtenaw and adding Lenawee. Basically everyone drew this district, as there weren’t any reasonable alternatives.

Mike Nofs (19) drops most of Jackson and adds Barry and Ionia. This district is identical to a proposed district in the original Republican plan ten years ago, before it was amended. If the original district had held, there would never have been a Senator (or Congressman) Mark Schauer. It would be nice to see Jase Bolger primary the moderate, SEIU-friendly Nofs, but I don’t know that there is any chance of that happening.

Kalamazoo County gained enough population that it can become its own district (20). It loses a small chunk of Van Buren. This is bad for Republicans for two reasons. First, senator Tonya Schuitmaker is from Van Buren. Second, the district would become a tossup. Tonya would have to choose between moving to Kalamazoo County, which is most of her current district, or running in a new district (26) centered in Allegan County. While Tonya represented Van Burn and a chunk of Allegan in the state house, folks in Allegan would probably like to have their own senator. Conservatives would do well with current state rep. Bob Genetski.

Rick Jones (24) keeps only Eaton, and his new district becomes a suburban Lansing district. He should still be safe.

Dave Hildenbrand (28) loses Kentwood and adds East GR and GR Twp., which were in his old state house seat. I’m not sure whether this is a partisan improvement. This seat stays a tossup. Meanwhile, 28 will be open and stays solidly Republican. This would be a good seat for Dave Agema, though the majority of his state house seat is in Ottowa.

All the most democrat areas of Genesee get put into one district (27). The Western tier gets combined with Saginaw (32). Democrats may finally break their losing streak in Saginaw. State rep. Ken Horn has a chance here, but I’m rating this seat lean democrat.

Mike Green gets a safer district (31), losing Arenac, Huron, and Sanilac, and adding Lapeer.

Geoff Hansen (34) loses Mason, making this seat a tossup.

John Moolenaar (36) trades Ogemaw and Crawford for Presque Isle. I don’t like this. This seat was very close in 2002 when the democrat candidate was a state rep. from Alpena. Presque Isle is the most democrat part of this district. Losing Ogemaw does move the Sheltrowns (Dave, Joel) out of this district, though.

Overall, this is a solid map, despite some minor problems.

Previous articles on Michigan redistricting:
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible Congressional Maps
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part II: Oakland and Genesee
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part III: Macomb and the Thumb
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part IV: The Rest of the State
Michigan Redistricting: Analysis of Democrats State Senate Plan

Thursday, June 16, 2011

POLITICAL UPDATE--Immigration

This update focuses on immigration.

Peter Brimelow: That GOP Debate In New Hampshire: A Pleasant Surprise On Immigration

Phyllis Schlafly: States Deal With Illegal Alien Problems
Washington Watcher: Supreme Court’s Whiting Ruling Gives Patriots A Memorial Day Present
James Edwards: President's El Paso Immigration Pander
Michelle Malkin: The Amnesty Bandwagon Rides Again

For more on immigration, see VDARE.com.

Monday, June 06, 2011

POLITICAL UPDATE--The Economy

This update focuses on the economy.

Gary North: Trigger Points
Gary North: Adam Smith, Meet Oprah Winfrey
Gary North: Building Your Financial Storm Shelter
Gary North: The New York Times Is Dying
Phyllis Schlafly: Trade Agreements Cost Jobs
Phyllis Schlafly: Who Will Answer the Jobs Question?

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.