Michigan Redistricting: State House Part III: Macomb and the Thumb

The first and second parts of my analysis of redistricting the Michigan state house focused on Wayne County and Oakland/Genesee Counties. The first article contains the basics on the rules that any map must follow.

Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part II: Oakland and Genesee

In part III, we consider Macomb County. We have seen that districts in Wayne County can be drawn to avoid a break, and Lapeer County can constitute its own district. Since I grouped Oakland and Genesee together, either Macomb must be unbroken, or it must share districts with counties in the Thumb, particularly St. Clair.

Currently Macomb has about 8.8 districts. It saw the largest numerical increase of any county in the state, gaining 52829 residents (ideally about .6 districts). Its ideal number of districts is now 9.36.

These new residents were not evenly distributed. Population gains were biggest in the ‘middle tier’ townships. Macomb Township gained an incredible 29000 people, Shelby gained 8600, and Chesterfield 6000. Also, Sterling Heights gained 5000 and Washington gained 6000. North Macomb had stable population. South Macomb saw small losses, with Warren losing 4000, St. Clair Shores 3000, Eastpointe 2000. These losses occurred at the same time that south Macomb saw an influx of former Detroit residents moving to the suburbs.

One possibility for Macomb is to overpopulate its districts so that it has exactly nine. This would average a population of 93442. There are two problems with this. One is that overpopulated districts need to be balanced with underpopulated districts elsewhere in the state. This makes drawing the whole map difficult. The second problem is that not breaking Macomb leads to breaks in Sanilac and Tuscola.

Another possibility is to share 11 districts between Macomb and St. Clair. This gives an average of 91274, which is still pretty far over. It also leads to a break in Tuscola.

Instead, I opted to combine Macomb, St. Clair, Sanilac, and Huron into 12 districts for an average population of 90021. This avoids any county breaks in the Thumb.

City and township breaks must also be considered. There must be breaks in Warren, Sterling Heights, and Clinton due to population. There also must be a break either in or around Shelby. I have not found a map with fewer than five breaks (counting double breaks).

Currently Macomb has 5 Republicans and 4 democrats. St. Clair and Sanilac have two more Republicans. Three of the Republican districts (St. Clair Shores/Harrison, Chesterfield, Sanilac/Port Huron) were held by democrats before 2010. A reasonable goal for a new map is to strengthen (or at least not weaken) all the vulnerable Republican districts and add a new Republican district in the growing areas.

The ‘new’ district is squeezed in to contain Port Huron, the second-to-the-top tier of townships, and the top tier of Macomb County. No district with Port Huron is completely safe, but this district is likely to elect a Republican. The Chesterfield district is shoved over to Washington, which should make it safe.

Here is the map. There are breaks in Warren, Sterling Heights (double) and Clinton (double).



Ratings and descriptions for the map:
21. Lean R(+++) [Port Huron, N Macomb] (This is the new district.)
24. Lean R [St. Clair Shores, Harrison, SE Clinton]
25. Safe D [N Warren, S Sterling Heights]
29. Safe D [S Warren, Center Line]
30. Safe R [Sterling Heights]
31. Safe D [Clinton, Mount Clemens]
32. Safe R(+) [Chesterfield, Leroy, Ray, Washington]
33. Safe R [Macomb, NW Clinton]
36. Safe R [Shelby, Utica, N Sterling Heights]
42. Safe D [Eastpointe, Roseville, Fraser]
81. Safe R [S St. Clair]
83. Lean R [Huron, Sanilac, N St. Clair]

Hence we have the following ratings:

Rating: SR/LR/TU/LD/SD
Old……. 4 / 3 / 0 / 0 / 4
New…… 5 / 3 / 0 / 0 / 4

Previous articles on Michigan redistricting:
Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part II: Oakland and Genesee

Election Results

Fresh from Election Magic...

[9:20 PM] The KRESA tax is passing more than 2:1.

Totten and Hill will win in the KPS school board race.

Burr and Eldridge will win in Gull Lake. Lorence Wenke has a poor thrid-place showing.

Mattawan millage renewal will pass. Building proposal is close...

Not much from Portage yet...

[10:06 PM] KRESA tax passes with about 73%.

Mattawan building tax failing with 41% and one precinct remaining.

Totten wins an easy first, Hill a comfortable second.

Burr and Eldridge win easily in Gull Lake.

Eddy and Hartridge will win in Portage with close to twice as many votes as Kurdys and Hollenbeck. Portage will get dragged through the mud for another year...

Ongley, Brown, Behr, and Yantis win Portage Library Board.

[10:15 PM] Mattawan is final. Building tax FAILS 44% to 56%. Millage renewal passes 66% to 34%.

Building tax passed in Oshtemo and Texas (in person), failed in Oshtemo and Texas absentees, Prairie Ronde, Almena, and Antwerp.

Remember the government tax motto: Yes means yes, no means try again!

[10:21 PM] Over in Calhoun, Republican Julie Camp wins a seat on the Kellogg Community College Board. She is already a Calhoun County Commissioner.

Calhoun County Commission Redistricting Plan Adopted

Calhoun County has completed its county commission redistricting. The apportionment commission voted 3-2 to support a plan by Clerk Anne Norlander. The vote was along party lines.

GOP-backed county board redistricting plan wins approval‎

Calhoun County had very minor population changes. It lost about 1800 people overall, with the biggest changes being losses of 1000 in Battle Creek and 500 in Albion. While many counties are cutting the number of county commissioners, Calhoun has only seven and no compelling need to change that number.

Unlike neighboring Kalamazoo County, much of Calhoun is swing territory. A majority (4/7) seats flipped to Republican in 2010. Most of these had been picked up by democrats over the past decade.

Here is the breakdown (R-D) over the past decade.
1998: 5-2
2000: 4-3
2002: 3-4
2004: 3-4
2006: 2-5
2008: 1-6
2010: 5-2

The swingy nature of Calhoun makes it difficult to gerrymander, even if you want to. With seven districts, the numbers work to have Battle Creek and Springfield make up three districts. Then Bedford, Pennfield, and Convis naturally make up a district. The rest of the county almost has to have districts based in Emmett, Marshall, and Albion.

The Norlander map can almost be considered a 'least change' map. The descriptions of the districts (both before and after) follow. They can be compared to the current districts here. The partisan percentages come from the 2008 sheriff race (51% R countywide).


1. [48% R] Tossup [W Battle Creek, Springfield]
2. [28% R] Safe D [N Battle Creek]
3. [45% R] Safe D [E Battle Creek]
4. [52% R] Tossup [Bedford, Pennfield, Convis]
5. [58% R] Safe R [Emmett, Newton, Leroy, Athens]
6. [65% R] Safe R [Marshall area]
7. [48% R] Lean D [Albion area]

Districts 4 and 5 are unchanged. Clarendon is moved from 6 to 7. This makes 7 a bit more friendly for its Republican incumbent, but it will be difficult to hold in any case. In Battle Creek, 1 loses one precinct to 3. Districts 2 and 3 trade a few precincts. District 2 remains the most heavily minority district at 30% black. The democrat plan seems to have attempted to make district 1 more democrat.

Overall, it seems like a decent map.

Previous:
Kalamazoo County Commission Redistricting Plan Adopted

Pakistan's Perfidy

By far the best article commenting on Osama's demise is this one by Steve Sailer.

Obama and Osama: Can We Go Home Now?

Conservatives Win in Canada

The Conservative Party of Canada won an outright majority in yesterday's election after leading a minority government for the past five years.

Liberal Party of Canada Buried at Sea After Dying in Firefight

Kurdys and Hollenbeck for Portage School Board

The race for Portage School Board has revolved around the firing of Superintendent Marcia Wells.

Melanie Kurdys has been the leading critic of Wells on the board. She is also a strong conservative Republican and advocate of government accountability. Kurdys was initially alone in criticizing Wells, and the other members of the board were critical of her persistence. But as the composition of the board changed, Kurdys won over those who had initially been hostile or skeptical, including Hollenbeck.

So why did Wells deserve to be fired? It has become clear that she is an autocrat who opposed any transparency or accountability for her actions. In particular, the board directed her to provide information on administrator contracts, and she outright refused to comply with that policy. She should have been fired right there. No further argument about Wells' conduct is necessary.

There was more, though. Wells made false allegations against the then-president of the board, Dale Posthumus, that led him to resign in disgust. She chose to hold a performance review in public, hoping to intimidate the board into not airing criticism in public. (This backfired.)

Given Wells manifest 'rule or ruin' tactics, the board made the decision to buy out her contract rather than fire her outright. While a firing for cause would have been justified and viscerally satisfying, the board likely made the right choice. Critics of the board are objecting to the expense, but fighting a lawsuit would also be expensive, and would drag out the controversy. (The situation is reminiscent of the firing of Judy Bailey.)

Wells has attracted a small band of supporters. Two of them, Eddy and Hartridge, are also running for the board. They are running on the bizarre platform that the board should not hold the administration accountable for its actions. While they criticize the buyout expense, they don't want to hold the administration accountable for its expenses.

Kurdys and Hollenbeck should be reelected.

Vote NO on the KRESA Tax Hike

On Tuesday voters will decide the fate of the KRESA tax. This launders our tax dollars through KRESA and sends them to local school districts to get around restrictions on how much they can tax.

This post from 2008 is still relevant three years later.

-------------------

Stop the KRESA Tax

The most important issue on the ballot in Tuesday's election is the KRESA tax hike.

Despite the title, KRESA is simply being used as an intermediary to funnel money to local school districts based in Kalamazoo County. Three years ago, this tax was billed as a one-time emergency measure. Now, the schools want to renew it for another three years.

Advocates of the tax argue that quality education is essential to the community. But no one disputes this. The relevant question is whether passing the tax would improve education. This question is never addressed by advocates of the tax. They have not offered any such evidence.

The Gazette reports that advocates of the tax warn that all sorts of wonderful programs will be cut if the tax is not passed. This is an example of the Washington Monument strategy. That is, when there is a threat of cuts, bureaucrats threaten to cut the most popular programs instead of waste or unnecessary spending. (And why aren't there ever any newspaper stories about parents forced to take lollipops from their children because their taxes increased?)

In fact, the main result of increased school taxes are higher salaries and benefits for school employees. Increasing the salaries of the same people who have provided mediocre education won't help anything.

The biggest waste of tax dollars, though far from the only one, is the MESSA health insurance that the school districts purchase from the Michigan Education Association (MEA). Comparable coverage can be obtained for much less, and the difference goes to the MEA. It pressures school districts to use the expensive coverage. All nine Kalamazoo County school districts do so.

A Kalamazoo Gazette editorial admitted this problem and still urged that the tax be approved.

The primary donors to the campaign for the tax are the very people who stand to gain financially from its passage.

The KRESA tax richly deserves to be rejected.

-----------------

After the tax was approved three years ago, this blog predicted:

It doesn't take much foresight to see what will happen in the future. Government schools will continue to be mediocre. They will continue to waste money on MESSA insurance and lots of other things. Employee salaries and benefits will continue to increase. And there will be another dire fiscal emergency three years from now demanding renewal of this 'temporary' tax.

Vote NO on the Mattawan Tax Hike

The Mattawan government school district is demanding an 88 million dollar tax hike. This is 3.88 mills (a mill is one thousandth of the taxable value (half) of your property). This is not necessary and not affordable. With a poor economy and many people out of work, schools should learn to live within their means, just as private citizens must.

2011 ELECTION: Bond votes in South Haven, Mattawan; tax renewal in Kalamazoo County

POLITICAL UPDATE--Spending

This update focuses on spending.

Ann Coulter: Obama's Budget: More Waste, Fraud, and Self-Abuse
Gary North: You Are Getting Stiffed
Ron Paul: Spending Cuts Are Meaningless
Pat Buchanan: Barack Hussein Hoover
Pat Buchanan: Obama Blows up the Bridge
Michelle Malkin: America, the Dependent
Thomas Sowell: Another Spending Cut Plan
Dan Flynn: Shutdown Letdown

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Guns Fight Crimes

Geoffrey Mattens, of Richland, charged with felony home invasion after being caught at gunpoint by Decatur homeowner

POLITICAL UPDATE--Immigration

This update focuses on immigration.

Washington Watcher: “Worse than A Crime—A Blunder”: Ron Paul’s Tragic Turnaround On Immigration
Phyllis Schlafly: Obama and Mexican Trucks
Washington Watcher: Good News—Legal Immigration Down in 2010. Bad News—It’s Still More Than A Million
Washington Watcher: Paez Without Honor— Hispanic Activist Judge Leads Attack On Arizona Law
Steve Sailer: Birthright Citizenship, Anarcho-Tyranny, And Beverly Hills Nativism
Allan Wall: Memo From Middle America (Formerly Known As Memo From Mexico): Birthright Citizenship—How Some Other Countries Handle It

For more on immigration, see VDARE.com.

Kalamazoo County Commission Redistricting Plan Adopted

While the Michigan legislature begins to consider redistricting of congressional and state legislative districts, counties across the state must also redraw county commission districts. The deadline to pass plans is much sooner than it is for the state legislature, so some counties have already completed the process and others are about to. Kalamazoo County adopted its new plan on Tuesday.

Kalamazoo County board's size will go from 17 to 11 districts in 2013
Apportionment committee created a 'well-balanced plan' for downsized Kalamazoo County Board, chairman says
Political landscape changes as Kalamazoo County board shrinks to 11 districts

The plan is decided by the county apportionment commission, which consists of the county prosecutor, treasurer, and clerk and the chairmen of the county Republican and democrat parties. In Kalamazoo, that’s Jeff Fink, Mary Balkema, Tim Snow, Al Heilman, and Dave Pawloski. The first four are Republicans. Fink was elected chairman of the commission at an earlier meeting.

There is a law governing how districts must be drawn. It sets forth a number of general standards but is fairly vague about how exactly to measure them and how much deviation is acceptable. Probably the only inviolable standards are that districts must be contiguous and must have roughly equal population. We will examine these standards in more detail below.

Unlike congressional or legislative redistricting, the number of county commissioners is not fixed. It can vary, with the range depending on the population of the county. The apportionment commission gets to set the number of commissioners.

At an earlier meeting, the Kalamazoo apportionment commission decided that it wanted to reduce the number of commissioners. The number of commissioners is currently 17, which the apportionment commission felt made the county commission meetings too unwieldy. This was an increase from 9 commissioners in the 1990s.

It isn’t entirely clear why the number had been increased. There was speculation that then-prosecutor Jim Gregart thought that it would help Republicans win a majority. If so, it had at best mixed success, with Republicans winning a 10-7 majority in 2002, 2004, and 2010, while having an 8-9 minority in 2006 and 2008.

Any member of the commission was free to submit a plan. Snow submitted plans for 7, 9, 11, and 13 districts. Balkema submitted plans for 9 and 11 districts. So did Pawloski. After a bit of discussion, the commission settled on 11 districts. Balkema’s 11-district plan was supported by Heilman, while Snow was unhappy with the fact that the map split Oshtemo between two districts. Pawloski wasn’t thrilled with the map but was willing to support it if he could modify the districts in the democratic areas of Kalamazoo city and township.

Snow and Pawloski presented their own 11-district maps. Other members of the committee criticized these plans for having districts that contain parts of both Kalamazoo and Portage. After some discussion, the commission adopted the Balkema plan with Pawloski’s amendments. The vote was unanimous, though Snow voiced displeasure with some aspects of the plan.

Here is Balkema’s original plan.



Here is the revised plan, which was adopted by the commission.


Here is the statute governing county commission redistricting.

Consider the standards for the final plan.
A. All districts shall be single-member districts and as nearly of equal population as is practicable.

What is practicable? There is some ambiguity here. Republican Michigander has stated that a court case found 11.9% deviation to be the maximum allowable. Certainly some deviation is allowed to avoid breaking precincts or city/township boundaries.

The plan adopted complies well with this standard. The lowest deviation is -3.68% in district 11, and the highest is +3.74% in district 3. The total range of 7.42% is quite reasonable. Based on playing around with various maps, this blog found it quite difficult to get below a 7% range.

B. All districts shall be contiguous.

They are.

C. All districts shall be as compact and of as nearly square shape as is practicable, depending on the geography of the county area involved.

This is ambiguous. What is ‘practicable’? How do you measure compactness? There are multiple possible mathematical definitions of compactness and ‘squareness’, and the statute does not specify a standard.

The districts in the map all appear to be reasonably compact, with no outrageous gerrymandering in evidence.

D. No township or part thereof shall be combined with any city or part thereof for a single district, unless such combination is needed to meet the population standard.

Again this is somewhat ambiguous. There are four cities in Kalamazoo County: Kalamazoo, Portage, Parchment, and Galesburg. The final map has five districts that contain territory from both city and township. Balkema’s original plan had only three, but it had a slightly larger population variation (7.63%).

E. Townships, villages, and cities shall be divided only if necessary to meet the population standard.

Again it is ambiguous exactly what is ‘necessary’. Both the Balkema and final plan divide four jurisdictions, Kalamazoo, Portage, Kalamazoo Township, and Oshtemo. These are the four largest jurisdictions. Balkema’s plan had one district that contained part of Kalamazoo city and the rest in K Township, one district that contained part of Portage and four townships, and Kalamazoo and Oshtemo townships each split between two districts. Pawlowski amended this so that there are four districts that split K Township, three of which contain parts of Kalamazoo and one contains part of Oshtemo and Alamo.

F. Precincts shall be divided only if necessary to meet the population standard.

No precincts are divided.

G. Residents of state institutions who cannot by law register in the county as electors shall be excluded from any consideration of representation.

There are no state prisons in Kalamazoo County, so this is a moot point.

H. Districts shall not be drawn to effect partisan political advantage.

No one would ever dream of such a thing.

Now let’s consider the plan passed in detail. What follows are descriptions of the districts, which incumbent commissioners live in the districts, and who is most likely to win in the future. To get some idea of the voting histories of the districts, this blog picked three past competitive countywide races and computed their outcomes in the districts. The races are the 2010 Secretary of State race (Johnson v. Benson), the 2008 county treasurer race (Balkema v. Kaufmann), and the 2006 state senate race (George v. Lipsey).

District 1
Kalamazoo city 1, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, 17 and Kalamazoo Township 10, 13. Basically this is downtown, Northside, Eastside, Edison, and Douglas. This is the minority-majority district, with 43.3% white and 56.7% minority, including 40.3% black.
Carolyn Alford and Robert Barnard are the incumbents here. Alford is black, so she is likely to continue to dominate this district.
20% Johnson
19% Balkema
20% George
Safe Democrat

District 2
Kalamazoo city 3, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20, 21, 23, 24 and Kalamazoo Township 11. [Milwood, Crosstown, Edison]
David Buskirk, Jack Urban. Buskirk is heavily favored here, as this greatly resembles the district he held in the 90s when there were 9 commissioners.
33% Johnson
38% Balkema
36% George
Safe Democrat

District 3
Kalamazoo city 2, 4, 12, 19, 22, 25, 26, 28 [Westnedge Hill, Parkview Hills, Oakwood, Winchell, Knollwood, WMU campus]
John Taylor. This resembles Taylor’s current district, with WMU and Westnedge Hill added.
37% Johnson
37% Balkema
40% George
Safe Democrat

District 4
Kalamazoo city 5, 6, 10, Parchment, and Kalamazoo Township 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 14, 15 [Arcadia, Westwood, Northwood, Parchment, Spring Valley]
Brian Johnson, Michael Seals. This district contains more of Johnson’s old district, so he would be favored if he runs for reelection.
42% Johnson
40% Balkema
41% George
Safe Democrat

District 5
Kalamazoo Township 3, 6, 9, Oshtemo 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, Alamo [Westwood, northern and western Oshtemo, Alamo]
Open. This district contains part of four districts currently represented by Iden, Buchholz, Johnson, and Seals.
57% Johnson
55% Balkema
56% George
Safe Republican

District 6
Cooper, Richland, Ross Townships
Deb Buchholz, Jeff Heppler. Heppler represents somewhat more of this district and would likely be favored if he runs for reelection. He might be interested in running for Sheriff instead. He ran in 1998 and applied for the position in 2002.
63% Johnson
60% Balkema
58% George
Safe Republican

District 7
Comstock, Galesburg, Charleston, Climax, Wakeshma
Ann Nieuwenhuis. This contains all of her district and half of John Gisler’s. It is safer than her current district.
59% Johnson
57% Balkema
55% George
Safe Republican

District 8
Portage 2, Pavilion, Brady, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde
John Gisler, David Maturen. This has all of Maturen’s current district, and half of Gisler’s. Geography favors Maturen if he runs for reelection. But since Maturen is somewhat moderate, Gisler could have an ideological advantage in a Republican primary.
64% Johnson
61% Balkema
59% George
Safe Republican

District 9
Oshtemo 4, 5, 7, 8, Texas Township
Tim Rogowski, Brandt Iden. Rogowski has a geographic advantage and a bigger partisan geographic advantage, since most of the Republicans in the district are in Texas. Rogowski could potentially be vulnerable to a more conservative challenger. Iden could conceivably move to the open district 5.
63% Johnson
59% Balkema
61% George
Safe Republican

District 10
Portage 1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 16, 18, 19, 21 [Western Portage]
Phil Stinchcomb. This contains all of his current district and pieces from Ansari and Rogowski. It is a bit safer than his current district.
59% Johnson
58% Balkema
61% George
Safe Republican

District 11
Portage 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, 15, 17, 20 [Eastern Portage]
John Zull, Nasim Ansari. This has all of Zull’s district and half of Ansari’s. Zull is expected to retire at the end of his term, leaving the district to Ansari. Ansari could conceivably run for drain commissioner, which he applied for in 2007.
57% Johnson
56% Balkema
57% George
Safe Republican

Overall, this map appears quite likely to lead to a 7-4 Republican majority for the next decade.

Paul Maier Retires

The great Paul Maier, WMU history professor for 50 years and Christian apologist, is retiring. Western has been blessed to have him. I hope he has many more productive years in whatever he chooses to pursue next.

Professor Paul Maier on teaching for a half century at WMU: 'Too much fun' (with video)

Jesse Jackson at Western

Jesse Jackson spoke at Western on Monday. I'm sure if anybody noticed. The Gazette reports the crowd as 'over 200'. Ann Coulter got over 2000.

Rev. Jesse Jackson urges crowd at Western Michigan University to push back against education cuts (with video)

The comments are highly unsympathetic.

Stun Gun Ban is Unconstitutional

A local judge has ruled that Michigan's ban on stun guns is unconstitutional. Michigan is one of only seven states that ban stun guns. The case while probably be appealed, but is nonetheless a victory for freedom.

UPDATE: Bay County judge says Second Amendment protects Bay City man's right to possess stun guns

Julie Mack exposes Rachel Maddow's Lies

Liberal columnist Julie Mack has written a devastating column ripping apart the report that Rachel Maddow aired on the Benton Harbor Emergency Financial Manager controversy.

Column: The facts in Benton Harbor get in the way of a good story for Rachel Maddow

This blog's only question is why Mack would think that any of Maddow's other reports are any more accurate.

POLITICAL UPDATE--The Culture War

This update focuses on the culture war.

Steve Sailer: Census 2010: Hispanic Hype, Black Backwash, White Flight
Thomas Sowell: Voting With Their Feet
Gary North: The Most Important Unanswered Historical Question in the World: 'What Changed in 1800?'
Gary North: What Made America Great
Steve Sailer: Population Paradoxes—A Post-Anglo America Might Vote For Big Government, But Couldn't Afford It. What then?
Steve Sailer: National Journal’s Ronald Brownstein Confirms Sailer Strategy
Phyllis Schlafly: VAWA Is an Excellent Target for Spending Cuts
Gary North: Still Out of Step After All These Years

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Michigan Redistricting: State House Part II: Oakland and Genesee

The first part of my analysis of redistricting the Michigan state house focused on Wayne County. That article contains the basics on the rules that any map must follow.

Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County

In particular, a good map avoids county breaks when possible. We have seen that districts in Wayne County can be drawn to avoid a break. This is also true for Washtenaw, Livingston, Ingham, and Lapeer Counties.

Part II begins by considering Oakland County. It is technically possible to avoid breaking Oakland, but only by significantly overpopulating its districts, which would lead to more city/township breaks, which must also be avoided.

Currently, Oakland has about 13.2 districts, sharing one township with a district mostly contained in Livingston County. Population growth in Livingston means that it no longer needs to be broken. The ideal number of districts for Oakland is now 13.38.

Oakland borders Genesee to the northwest. Genesee currently has five districts. It just barely avoided a break in 2000 by having district populations well under the ideal and just barely above the threshold. Population loss in Genesee, particularly in Flint, means that Genesee must now be broken. Its ideal number of districts is now 4.74.

Hence it works well the combine Oakland and Genesee so that one house district contains parts of both of them. These counties will share 18 districts with an ideal population of 90453.

See the current map here: MICHIGAN'S 110 HOUSE DISTRICTS

Populations were quite stable in southeastern Oakland, and my proposed districts don’t change much from the current map. The city of Pontiac did lose about 8000, and Southfield lost 6500. Both are democrat, black-majority areas. Population grew in north and west Oakland, leading to a reshuffling of the districts there. Among the biggest gainers were Novi, Commerce, and Oxford.

Meanwhile, population dropped by 10000 in Genesee. Flint lost 22500, and Flint, Mt. Morris, and Genesee townships each lost about 2000 meanwhile, Grand Blanc Township, a Republican area, gained about 8000.

There are currently two black-majority districts based in Southfield and Flint and my map easily maintains them.

Oakland County currently has six democrats and 7.2 Republicans. Only one district, the West Bloomfield/Commerce district (39) has changed parties all decade. That district is a tossup and the Waterford district (43) leans Republican. The rest are safe for their respective parties.

Genesee has four democrats and one Republican. The democrats are all safe and the southern tier (Grand Blanc, Fenton) district 51 leans Republican.

Given population shifts, a reasonable goal for Republicans is to win back district 39, secure Waterford (43) and draw a Republican district containing parts of Genesee and Oakland. My proposed map accomplishes all three goals. The Pontiac district (29) loses Auburn Hills and adds about 30000 people from democrat areas of West Bloomfield. The Waterford district loses its part of West Bloomfield and adds Springfield. (These townships do share more than a point in common due to an offset, i.e. they don’t quite align horizontally.) The new district 50 contains the eastern townships of Genesee and Thetford plus Brandon and Oxford from Oakland (it also uses an offset). This district should lean Republican.

Here are the maps. Amazingly, there are only three city/township breaks. They are in West Bloomfield, Oakland Township, and Flint. This is the absolute minimum possible.

Ratings and descriptions for the map:
26. Safe D [Royal Oak, Madison Heights]
27. Safe D [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park]
29. Safe D [Pontiac, SE West Bloomfield]
35. Safe D [Southfield]
37. Safe D [Farmington]
38. Safe R [Novi, Lyon]
39. Lean R(+) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom]
40. Safe R [Bloomfield, Auburn Hills]
41. Safe R [Troy, Clawson]
43. Safe R(+) [Waterford, Springfield]
44. Safe R [Milford, Highland, White Lake, Rose, Holly, Groveland]
45. Safe R [Rochester, S Oakland Twp]
46. Safe R [Independence, Orion, Addison, N Oakland Twp]

34. Safe D [Flint]
48. Safe D [Burton, Genesee, Mt. Morris, Vienna]
49. Safe D [western column, Flint Twp]
50. Lean R(+++) [eastern column, Thetford, Brandon, Oxford]
51. Lean R [Grand Blanc, Mundy, Fenton]

Hence we have the following ratings:

Rating: SR/LR/TU/LD/SD
Old……. 6 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 9
New…… 7 / 3 / 0 / 0 / 8

Previous articles on Michigan redistricting:
Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County

Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County

Along with congressional and state senate maps, the state legislature will also redistrict the state house of representatives. The current state house map was drawn by Republicans, but has hardly any partisan slant at all. Its architects thought it would elect a large Republican majority, but control shifted to democrats in 2006 and 2008 before returning to Republicans in 2010.

Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps

See the current state house map here: MICHIGAN'S 110 HOUSE DISTRICTS

State house control is more likely to vary since representatives are limited to three two-year terms and elections are held in both presidential and off-years, unlike the state senate.

Many of the rules for legislative district maps are the same as for congressional district maps. In particular, the Apol standards require that there be a small number of county and city/township breaks. These standards cannot legally bind future redistricting plans (LaRoux v. Secretary of State), but it is likely that any plan passed will at least come close to following them.

One major difference between the congressional and legislative standards is that populations for legislative districts are not required to be exact. They must be within 5% of the ideal population. For the Michigan House of Representatives, the ideal population is 9983640/110=89851. The lower and upper thresholds are thus 85359 and 94343.

This makes it easier to avoid breaks. Many counties do not need to be broken at all. The first part of my analysis of the state house redistricting will focus on Wayne County. Wayne’s ideal number of districts is 20.26, so the ideal population for a district is 91029.

The Voting Rights Act is commonly understood to require black-majority districts when possible. There are currently ten black-majority districts based in Detroit and one each in Southfield and Flint. There is also one significantly Hispanic district in southern Detroit. Given that Detroit lost 220000 people out of the 240000 loss in Wayne County, Wayne County will lose three house seats, dropping from 23 to 20. Three districts must be shifted elsewhere in the state.

Detroit really should lose two or three black districts, but don’t expect Eric Holder to agree with that. It is possible to maintain eight black districts while minimizing the number of breaks, or keep ten black districts with some creative line-drawing and a larger number of breaks.

Republicans will want to improve their prospects as much as possible. In the 2002 election, they won five seats and came close in two others. The five they held were the Grosse Pointes, Dearborn, Livonia, Plymouth/Northville, and Canton. The two that were close are Redford and the southern tier. The Grosse Pointes flipped in 2008. The population of this district needs to expand, and can only add part of Detroit. Demographic changes (blacks moving in from Detroit) mean this district is now out of reach. The same is true for the Redford district.

The Dearborn district flipped in 2004 due to Muslim reaction against Bush. The Plymouth/Northville district flipped in 2006 due in part to the treachery of RINO John Stewart, but flipped back in 2010. The Canton district flipped in 2008. The southern tier district was finally won by Republicans in 2010.

Both maps below are the same in Western Wayne. The Livonia district is the entire city except a small corner in the southwest. The Canton district loses VanBuren and is now just Canton, which makes it more favorable to Republicans. The Plymouth/Northville district loses Wayne and adds part of Westland, making it a bit more favorable. The southern tier district loses Sumpter, making it a bit more favorable. Republicans have a reasonable chance of winning four districts.

The first map below has eight black majority districts. It breaks Detroit in four places and four other cities (Livonia, Dearborn, Westland, Taylor).



The second map below has ten black majority districts. It adds three more breaks in Detroit and one more break (Dearborn Heights) outside.

Note that it is just barely possible to create a Hispanic majority district, but only by breaking four jurisdictions (Detroit, River Rouge, Ecorse, Lincoln Park).

My ratings for both maps:
1. Safe D(-) [Grosse Pointes]
2-15, 17 Safe D
16. Tossup [Southern Tier]
18. Safe R [Livonia]
19. Lean R(+) [Canton]
20. Safe R(++) [Plymouth/Northville]

For Republicans, the biggest benefit in Wayne County is the fact that three of its districts will move to more favorable parts of the state.

POLITICAL UPDATE--The Economy

This update focuses on the economy.

Gary North: Wealth Through Decentralization
Gary North: Insider Trading: A Bum Rap
Gary North: Bernanke Is Riding the Tiger
Gary North: Interest Rates on the Rise
James Ryan: The Strange Tale of Obama, The Teamsters, The Sierra Club—And Those Cheap, Dirty, Dangerous Mexican Trucks
Gary North: Gold or Uniformed Goons With Badges and Guns
Phyllis Schlafly: Death for Innovation
Gary North: Enemies of the Middle Class
Gary North: Gold Has No Intrinsic Value
Gary North: Booms, Busts, and Food Prices

See also:
Gary North series: What is Money?
The Recession Reader
The Bailout Reader

POLITICAL UPDATE--Liberalism

This update focuses on liberalism.

Ann Coulter: Thanks For Raising My Taxes--What Else Can I Do For You?
Ann Coulter: Liberals: They Blinded Us With Science
Thomas Sowell: Union Myths
Ann Coulter: Six-Figure Bus Drivers & Other Working-Class Heroes
Dan Flynn: Spies Like Us
Andrew McCarthy: Jean-Jacques Jihad
Phyllis Schlafly: Feminism Has Become a Hot Topic
Michelle Malkin: De-Fund The Predators Of Planned Parenthood
James Fulford: They’ll Think You’re Signaling! Dog-Whistles From Goldwater To Reagan To Palin

Much information on liberal individuals and organizations can be found at David Horowitz's Discover the Network site.

Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps

With the release of Michigan’s census numbers last month, redistricting season is well underway. I previously proposed two congressional district maps, and Republican Michigander has offered his 10-4 plan as well.

Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Dan's 10-4 GOP Redistricting Map Part one (1-5) Part two (6-10) Part three (10-14)

While congressional lines attract the most attention, state legislative lines will also be redrawn. This article proposes two possible maps for the Michigan state senate. The state senate is particularly key since it has been the bulwark against total democrat control in Michigan since 1983.

Many of the rules for legislative district maps are the same as for congressional district maps. In particular, the Apol standards require that there be a small number of county and city/township breaks. These standards cannot legally bind future redistricting plans (LaRoux v. Secretary of State), but it is likely that any plan passed will at least come close to following them.

One major difference between the congressional and legislative standards is that populations for legislative districts are not required to be exact. They must be within 5% of the ideal population. For the Michigan Senate, the ideal population is 9983640/38=260095. The lower and upper thresholds are thus 247091 and 273100.

This makes it much easier to avoid breaks. In particular, there are only six counties that must have breaks. They are Oakland, Macomb, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw, and Ingham. The second map below shows that it is possible to have a map with only six breaks.

The Voting Rights Act is commonly understood to require black-majority districts when possible. There are currently five black-majority districts based in Detroit. Given that Detroit lost 220000 people out of the 240000 loss in Wayne County, Wayne will lose a senate seat, dropping from 8 to 7. Detroit really should lose a black district, but don’t expect Eric Holder to agree with that. It is possible to maintain five black districts with some creative line-drawing.

Redrawing the senate districts is a tricky problem. Small shifts in population can lead a district above or below the population thresholds. Because of the need to avoid breaks, this can require drastic changes in the districts. This is all too likely to lead to two incumbents ending up in the same district.

This is particularly true since Republicans now hold 26 of 38 senate seats. Only four of them are term-limited, so most will run for reelection. Some may have to move to avoid primary battles. This was not a problem when Republicans were redrawing districts in 2002, since almost all of the existing senators were term-limited.

First we review the existing senate districts. See a map of the districts below.

2001 State Senate Districts

The ratings that I give are for open seat races in off-year elections. Incumbents are generally stronger than nominees for open seats. Off-year elections are better for Republicans than presidential year elections. Term-limited senators are denoted TL.

1. Safe D [eastern Detroit] Coleman Young
2. Safe D [northern Detroit, Grosse Pointes] Bert Johnson
3. Safe D [central Detroit, Dearborn] Morris Hood
4. Safe D [central Detroit] Virgil Smith
5. Safe D [western Detroit] Tupak Hunter (TL)
6. Lean D [Livonia, Westland, Redford] Glenn Andersen (TL)
7. Lean R [western, southern Wayne County] Patrick Colbeck
8. Safe D [downriver Detroit suburbs] Hoon-Yung Hopgood
9. Safe D [southern Macomb County] Steven Bieda
10. Tossup [central Macomb County] Tory Rocca
11. Safe R [northern Macomb County] Jack Brandenburg
12. Safe R [northeastern Oakland County] Jim Marleau
13. Lean R [Troy, Royal Oak, Bloomfield] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. Safe D [southeastern Oakland County] Vincent Gregory
15. Safe R [southwestern Oakland County] Mike Kowall
16. Safe R [Lenewaee, Hillsdale, Branch, St. Joseph Counties] Bruce Caswell
17. Lean R [Monroe, parts of Washtenaw and Jackson Counties] Randy Richardville (TL)
18. Safe D [Washtenaw County] Rebekah Warren
19. Tossup [Calhoun, Jackson Counties] Mike Nofs
20. Lean R [Kalamazoo County] Tonya Schuitmaker
21. Safe R [Berrien, Cass, VanBuren Counties] John Proos
22. Safe R [Livingston, Shiawassee Counties] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham County] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Allegan, Barry, Eaton Counties] Rick Jones
25. Safe R [St. Clair, Lapeer Counties] Phil Pavlov
26. Tossup [eastern Genesee, northwest Oakland Counties] David Robertson
27. Safe D [Flint, western Genesee County] John Gleason (TL)
28. Safe R [Kent County outside Grand Rapids] Mark Jansen (TL)
29. Tossup [Grand Rapids, Kentwood] Dave Hildenbrand
30. Safe R [Ottawa County] Arlan Meekhof
31. Tossup [the Thumb] Mike Green
32. Tossup [Saginaw, Gratiot Counties] Roger Khan (TL)
33. Safe R [Clinton, Ionia, Montcalm, Isabella Counties] Judy Emmons
34. Lean R [Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, Mason Counties] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [north-central Lower Peninsula] Darwin Booher
36. Lean R [northeastern Lower Peninsula, Midland] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [northern Lower Peninsula, eastern upper peninsula] Howard Walker
38. Tossup [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa] Tom Casperson

The ratings break down to 13/6/7/1/11 from R to D.

Here is Map A. It has seven county breaks, counting Genesee as broken twice. As mentioned above, Wayne loses a seat. It’s a little tricky to designate the “new” seat, since every seat contains parts of existing seats, but I call it the VanBuren, Allegan, south Kent district. When possible, I tried to make Republican seats safer. However, a few actually got less safe due to population changes and county breaks. I denote a move one rating to the right by (+) and to the left by (-). The incumbent listed with a district is the one who represents the bulk of it, regardless whether he currently lives in the district.

1. Safe D [N Detroit, Grosse Pointes, Redford] Bert Johnson
2. Safe D [Detroit riverfront, Downriver] Coleman Young
3. Safe D [central Detroit, Lincoln Park, Southgate] (open?)
4. Safe D [West-central Detroit, Dearborn, Allen Park] Morris Hood
5. Safe D [W Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Taylor, Inkster] Tupak Hunter (TL)
6. Safe D(-) [SW Wayne, Westland] (open?)
7. Safe R(+) [Livonia, Canton, Plymouth, Northville] Patrick Colbeck
8. Safe R(++++) [VanBuren, Allegan, south Kent] (open)
9. Safe D [Warren, Roseville, S Clinton] Steven Bieda
10. Safe R(++) [Sterling Heights, Shelby, N Clinton] Tory Rocca
11. Safe R [N/E Macomb] Jack Brandenburg
12. Safe R [NE Oakland] Jim Marleau
13. Safe R(+) [Troy, Bloomfield, West Bloomfield, Commerce] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. Safe D [SE Oakland] Vincent Gregory
15. Safe R [SW Oakland] Mike Kowall
16. Safe R [Jackson, Hillsdale, Branch] Bruce Caswell
17. Tossup(-) [Monroe, Lenawee] Randy Richardville (TL)
18. Safe D [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Rebekah Warren
19. Safe R(++) [Calhoun, Barry, Ionia] Mike Nofs
20. Tossup(-) [Kalamazoo County] Tonya Schuitmaker
21. Safe R [Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph] John Proos
22. Safe R [Livingston, W Washtenaw] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Eaton, Clinton, Shiawassee] Rick Jones
25. Safe R [St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron] Phil Pavlov
26. Safe R(++) [S Genesee, NW Oakland, Waterford] David Robertson
27. Safe D [Flint, central Genesee] John Gleason (TL)
28. Safe R [central Kent, Walker] Mark Jansen (TL)
29. Tossup [Grand Rapids, N Kent] Dave Hildenbrand
30. Safe R [Ottawa County] Arlan Meekhof
31. Lean R(+) [Bay, Tuscola, Lapeer] Mike Green
32. Lean D(-) [Saginaw, N/W Genesee] Roger Khan (TL)
33. Safe R [Montcalm, Isabella, Gratiot, Mecosta, Clare] Judy Emmons
34. Tossup(-) [Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [NC Lower Peninsula] Darwin Booher
36. Safe R(+) [northeastern Lower Peninsula, Midland] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [N Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Howard Walker
38. Tossup [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa, Luce] Tom Casperson

The breakdown for these districts is 20/1/5/1/11 from R to D. The map makes a lot of seats safer, but it almost surely sacrifices the Saginaw seat.

It would be possible to make some seats safer by adding more breaks. Specifically:

Splitting Grand Rapids between the two Kent seats
Trading Muskegon for E Ottawa
Trading N Kalamazoo (K Twp, Oshtemo, Comstock) for VanBuren

Map B has only six county breaks. It saves the Saginaw seat at the cost of dismantling Mike Green’s district. It changes about half the districts. The changes are

12. Safe R [N Oakland, Pontiac] Jim Marleau
13. Safe R(+) [Rochester, Troy, Royal Oak] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. Safe D [SE Oakland] Vincent Gregory
15. Safe R [Bloomfield, W Bloomfield, Waterford, White Lake] (open)
18. Safe D [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Rebekah Warren
22. Safe R [Livingston, Shiawassee] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Eaton, Clinton, Gratiot, S Ingham] Rick Jones
26. Safe R(++) [S Genesee, Lapeer] David Robertson
27. Safe D [Flint, central Genesee] John Gleason (TL)
31. Safe R(++) [W Washtenaw, SW Oakland] Mike Kowall
32. Lean R(+) [Saginaw, Tuscola] Roger Khan/Mike Green
33. Safe R [Montcalm, Isabella, Clare, Osceola, Lake, Mason, Oceana] Judy Emmons
34. Lean R [Muskegon, Newaygo, Mecosta] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [central Lower Peninsula] (?)
36. Lean R [Bay, Midland, Gladwin, Arenac, Roscommon, Missaukee] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [N Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Howard Walker




The breakdown for these districts is 20/3/4/0/11 from R to D. The distribution is better, but many existing seats are carved up.

Which map do you prefer?

Washington Post Misleading on Michigan Redistricting

The Washington Post has an article on Michigan redistricting by Aaron Blake.

Maxed out in Michigan - The Fix - The Washington Post

The article discusses various scenarios for how redistricting will play out. It claims that Republicans face a problem because they are "maxed out" and will have difficulty eliminating a democrat seat and holding their own. Blake hardly notes that demographic shifts are extremely favorable for Republicans.

The fundamental error this piece makes is to use President Obama's 2008 performance as a benchmark for how Republican or democratic a district is. But this is unreasonable. Because John McCain publicly abandoned the state weeks before the election, some conservative and independent voters refused to vote for him. Others may have gone to Obama, swelling his margin.

Obama's performance is the absolute high water mark for democrats, and is totally out of line with local elections in Michigan for decades. For this reason, I don't use it, or measures based on it, like the Cook ratings, for analyzing Michigan elections. I prefer to use Michigan state house elections, since they are local and have frequent open seats.

For example, Obama won Michigan's 6th district. Is Republican Congressman Fred Upton endangered? Democrats have only one of 7.5 state house seats in the 6th. This has not changed in many decades. There is no reason to think that the 6th district is vulnerable. Similar analyses apply to most other Republican districts.

Blake notes that the conventional wisdom is that democrats Gary Peters and Sander Levin will end up in the same district. The conventional wisdom is correct. This is simply the only reasonable option for Republicans.

Blake notes that the Detroit districts may have to extend into Oakland County. But the Michigan Supreme Court has ruled that guidelines on County breaks are not enforceable.

Blake notes the curious decision of state rep Marty Knollenberg to run for Congress. But just because he sits on the redistricting committee doesn't mean he runs the committee. I'm not sure how he thinks he will have a district to run in. He will probably end up in the same district as either Peters/Levin or Thaddeus McCotter. It would make a lot more sense for Knollenberg to run for state senate in 2014, when John Pappageorge will be term-limited.

Blake mentions other possibilities.

Combining Peters and McCotter is insane unless it is a heavily Republican district.

Breaking up Dale Kildee's district can't work because no neighboring Republican district can take on Flint.

Combining Kildee and Peters wouldn't work since they aren't adjacent, and most of the democrats are at the southern end of Peters' district.

Breaking up Dingell isn't practical for the reasons that Blake mentions.

Blake is overthinking things. This blog has already demonstrated that it is easy to draw a map that combines Peters and Levin and shores up Walberg, Benishek, and McCotter. The only question is whether Republicans should go for more.

Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps

Sowell on the Census and Detroit: Brilliant!

Thomas Sowell has done a lot of excellent work, and that description certainly applies to his latest column on the census and demographic changes, in particular how they apply to Detroit.

Voting With Their Feet

Read the whole thing.

Detroit is perhaps the most striking example of a once thriving city ruined by years of liberal social policies. Before the ghetto riot of 1967, Detroit's black population had the highest rate of home-ownership of any black urban population in the country, and their unemployment rate was just 3.4 percent.

It was not despair that fueled the riot. It was the riot which marked the beginning of the decline of Detroit to its current state of despair. Detroit's population today is only half of what it once was, and its most productive people have been the ones who fled.

Treating businesses and affluent people as prey, rather than assets, often pays off politically in the short run--and elections are held in the short run. Killing the goose that lays the golden egg is a viable political strategy.

As whites were the first to start leaving Detroit, its then mayor Coleman Young saw this only as an exodus of people who were likely to vote against him, enhancing his re-election prospects.

But what was good for Mayor Young was disastrous for Detroit.

There is a lesson here somewhere, but it is very doubtful if either the intelligentsia or the politicians will learn it.

Kalamazoo Hispanic Council Defends Criminals

Local 'Hispanic leaders' are upset about recent immigration raids.

Immigration raids put Kalamazoo's Hispanic American Council 'in crisis mode'

KALAMAZOO — The Hispanic American Council, the Kalamazoo area’s largest Latino advocacy group, is operating “in crisis mode” in the wake of a series of arrests of undocumented immigrants made this week by federal immigration agents, a top official at the council said.

Many in the Hispanic community in the city of Kalamazoo are closing up their shops, keeping their kids home from school and holding-up in their homes, said Lori Mercedes, program director at the council.

“Of course they are afraid,” Mercedes said of the state of mind of Hispanic community members. “We must see the human aspect of what happens when ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) comes into our community.”

The operation, carried out at businesses and residences from Sunday through Wednesday, arrested 20 male illegal immigrants who were either guilty of a crime or had been told to leave the country but had failed to do so. Of the 20 arrested, 15 were from Mexico; others were from Nigeria and China.

Oh no! How could they! CRISIS! CRISIS!

Arrests were made at the Big Burrito on KL Ave., and Stir Max and Olive Garden, both on Westnedge Avenue, Mercedes said.

More jobs for Americans.

Phillip Cruz, program coordinator at the council, said it might be true that some of those arrested were criminals, but that others arrested by ICE were simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.

And they were criminals. Illegal immigration is a crime.

For instance, Cruz said, when ICE agents made their way to Big Burrito, the individual they were looking for was not there. So agents began questioning other workers there. After determining that one of them was undocumented, that man was arrested.

The same circumstance took place at homes in the community, Cruz said.

ICE told the Kalamazoo Gazette on Thursday that the operation was targeted to illegal immigrant criminals and those who had not complied with federal demands to leave the country.

However, according to Khaalid Walls, spokesman for the ICE field office in Detroit: “In general, when conducting operations if we run into individuals who are not part of our operational scope but are here illegally we have the authority to arrest them.”

Mercedes also had serious concerns about the way ICE agents handled their investigations while in the city.

After speaking with several members of the Hispanic community who had interactions with ICE agents while the operation was occurring, Mercedes alleged that agents harassed and intimidated people who had done nothing wrong.

Some were stopped in the streets, she said, adding that the operation lasted much longer than past ICE operations in the city, which usually lasted one to two days.

“The process is full of intimidation,” she said. “There is a fear right now that they can be caught anywhere. A lot will pack up and move away. Enough is enough.”

Good riddance.

Mercedes said that she would be organizing an effort to investigate claims of wrongdoing by ICE. The council, she said, would be in contact with the American Civil Liberties Union to explore its legal options.

But a more immediate negative result of the operation is the possibility that the fear it created will keep Hispanic members of the community from reporting crimes to Kalamazoo Department of Public Safety officers, she said.

I'm sure criminals report lots of crimes to the police.

Bridges of trust between KDPS and the more than 5,000 member Hispanic community that have been built over several years can be destroyed as a result of an operation like the one that took place, Mercedes said.

“We need to make a distinction between Public Safety and ICE,” she said. “Public Safety is here to enforce and protect the community. Our community needs to know they still have rights even if they are undocumented.”

You have the right to remain silent...

The comments on this article are extremely unsympathetic. Not a single one defends the illegals or the Hispanic Council.

POLITICAL UPDATE--Libya

This update focuses on Libya.

Ann Coulter: Obama Cried, Kids Died
Pat Buchanan: Obama's War
Dan Flynn: The Right Must Admit It Was Wrong About Democracy in the Middle East
Mark Steyn: The Art of Inconclusive War
Pat Buchanan: Obama's Foolish and Unconstitutional War
Pat Buchanan: Obama’s Confused Foreign Policy—And America’s
Pat Buchanan: After The Arab “Revolution”, The Bell Tolls For America
Pat Buchanan: It's Their War, Not Ours

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps

Now that Michigan’s census figures have been released, the process of redistricting can begin. With Republicans controlling the process this decade, they are expected to draw maps favorable to their interests. This article considers what such a congressional district map might look like.

Federal law mandates that congressional districts must have population as equal as possible. Michigan will drop from 15 to 14 districts, each of which must have 705,974 or 705975 people. Republicans currently have a 9-6 majority in the congressional delegation.

The Voting Rights Act, as interpreted by the courts, requires that black and Hispanic majority districts be drawn when reasonably possible. In Michigan, there must be two black-majority districts in the Detroit area.

State standards require that districts be contiguous by land with no cut-points. It also requires that there not be unreasonably many breaks of counties and cities/townships. However, the Michigan Supreme Court ruled in the case LaRoux v. Secretary of State (2001) that these standards cannot bind future legislatures, as any new redistricting plan passed into law would supersede the old law.

Drawing a map favorable to your party requires two basic things.
1. Pack your opponents into as few districts as possible.
2. Spread your supporters evenly to create modest majorities in as many districts as possible.

Point two has two further implications.
2a. Add more of your supporters to any vulnerable districts that you have.
2b. Remove some of your supporters (or add some of your opponents) to any districts where you have large majorities.

Further considerations include protecting the residences and constituencies of incumbents and removing or weakening the bases of potential challengers. They can also include matching constituents and representatives by class, race, etc.

How does this apply to Michigan? Democrats currently hold five districts in the Detroit area and one based in Flint. One of these (Gary Peters in Oakland County) is a swing district and the others are solidly democratic. All of these districts need to gain significant population, particularly the Detroit-based districts. It will not be difficult to consolidate the Detroit-area democrats down to at most four districts. This is most easily accomplished by carving the Republican areas off of Gary Peters’ district.

The currently vulnerable Republican districts are 1, 7, and 11, held by Dan Benishek, Tim Walberg, and Thaddeus McCotter, respectively.

Benishek can be made somewhat safer by adding Grand Traverse (County) and neighboring areas and removing north Bay. Walberg can be strengthened by removing some combination of Battle Creek, Eaton, and west Washtenaw. Losing Battle Creek is particularly important for Walberg since it is the home and political base of former congressman and potential future opponent Mark Schauer, who Walberg defeated in 2010. He could add either Republican territory in the Ionia/Clinton area or swing territory in Monroe County. McCotter would benefit from more territory in Oakland County.

The Republican districts that have more Republicans than necessary are 2, 3, and 10, held by Bill Huizinga, Justin Amash, and Candice Miller, respectively.

The only way to made Huizinga’s district substantially more democratic is to add some of the city of Grand Rapids. Amash could take on Battle Creek. Miller could take on swing areas in south Macomb including St. Clair Shores, south Sterling Heights, and north Clinton Twp.

I have drawn two different maps for how these goals might be accomplished. The first could be called the “max Republican” plan, since the primary goal is too elect as many Republicans as possible and it is only secondarily concerned with maintaining the existing constituencies of Republican incumbents. It is a 9-4-1 plan, where the 1 is an open swing district.

The key to this plan is Dale Kildee’s Flint-based 5th district. It already has some Republican areas in Tuscola and south Genessee. It needs to add population, but there are no adjacent democrat areas. The solution is to excise the Republican areas plus dem-leaning south Bay so that it can add Ingham, with Shiawassee as a connector. This removes the only democrat area from Mike Rogers’ 8th district, which allows him to take on Ann Arbor.

Meanwhile, the two Detroit districts push up into the democrat areas of Oakland and Macomb. John Conyers, Sander Levin, and Gary Peters all end up in the same district. John Dingell and Hansen Clarke both have their own districts. Thaddeus McCotter would have to choose between moving to a safe district in Oakland or running in a new swing district composed of west Wayne, east Washtenaw, and Monroe.

Tim Walberg would lose Battle Creek and west Washtenaw and add Clinton, Gratiot, and Montcalm.

Here are maps, made using Dave’s Redistricting App. Note that since this program had not yet been updated with 2010 census numbers, I had to hand-add the populations for the first map. Hence they are not exact, but should be within 10,000 of the ideal size. The boundaries can be tweaked as necessary to make the populations exact.





Brief Descriptions:
1. Benishek (R) Upper Peninsula, northern lower peninsula. Adds Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Benzie. Loses Ogemaw, Gladwin, Arenac, north Bay.
2. Huizinga (R) West Michigan coast. Adds part of Grand Rapids. Loses north Allegan, Benzie.
3. Amash (R) Most of Kent, Ionia, Barry. Adds Battle Creek area. Loses part of Grand Rapids.
4. Camp (R) Central lower peninsula. Adds Ogemaw, Gladwin, Arenac, Bay, Tuscola, Huron, Sanilac. Loses Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Montcalm, Gratiot, north Shiawassee.
5. Kildee (D) Flint area, Ingham, Shiawassee, city of Saginaw. Adds Ingham, Shiawassee. Loses Tuscola, south Bay, south Genessee.
6. Upton (R) Southwest Michigan. Adds north Allegan.
7. Walberg (R) South-central Michigan. Adds Clinton, Gratiot, Montcalm. Loses Battle Creek, west Washtenaw.
8. Rogers (R) Livington, Lapeer, north Oakland, south Genessee, Ann Arbor. Adds Lapeer, south Genessee, Ann Arbor. Loses Ingham, Clinton, south Shiawassee.
9. Open or McCotter (R) Southwest and east-central Oakland.
10. Miller (R) North Macomb, St. Clair. Adds St. Clair Shores, south Sterling Heights, part of Clinton Twp. Loses Huron, Sanilac, Lapeer.
11. Clarke (D) east Detroit, south Macomb. Adds south Macomb. Loses some of Downriver.
12. Conyers, Levin, Peters (D) west Detroit, southeast Oakland, including Pontiac, Southfield, and Royal Oak.
13. Open or McCotter (swing) west Wayne, east Washtenaw, and Monroe.
14. Dingell (D) Central Wayne, including Downriver, Dearborn, Westland. Adds Downriver, Westland. Loses Monroe, Ann Arbor.

The upsides of this map include a potential 10-4 delegation and eliminating two of Conyers, Levin, and Peters. The downside is that Camp, Rogers, and McCotter may not be very happy with how their districts are changed.

Now we consider a second plan. This could be called an incumbent protection plan, in that all the incumbents get safe districts, except that Peters and Levin are merged into one district. (Also, Walberg is not quite as safe as I would like.) This would create a 9-5 delegation.

Descriptions:
1. Almost same
2. Almost same
3. Almost same
4. Camp. Adds Clinton, south Shiawassee, Gladwin, Arenac. Loses Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Leelanau.
5. Kildee. Genessee, Bay, Tuscola, Huron, city of Saginaw. Adds north Bay, Huron.
6. Same
7. Walberg. Adds Monroe. Loses Battle Creek area, central Washtenaw.
8. Rogers. Adds Lapeer. Loses Clinton, south Shiawassee.
9. Dingell (renumbered from 15) Adds west Wayne, part of Downriver. Loses Monroe, central Wayne.
10. Miller. Adds St. Clair Shores, south Sterling Heights. Loses Huron, Lapeer.
11. McCotter. Adds Waterford, West Bloomfield, Rochester, Troy. Loses Redford, Westland, Canton.
12. Levin/Peters. South Macomb, Royal Oak, Pontiac, Bloomfield, Farmington.
13. Clarke. East Detroit. Adds Dearborn, central Detroit.
14. Conyers. West Detroit, Southfield, Oak Park, Westland, Romulus, Taylor. All but Detroit are additions. Loses part of Downriver.

Which map do you prefer?

State Shutters Stadium Speed Trap

Hooray! MDOT has decided to raise the speed limit on Stadium Drive from 40 to 45.

Speed limit on Stadium Drive to be raised; MDOT to hold public meeting to explain increase

It should really be 50, but this is a major improvement. A previous Gazette report showed that Stadium was one of the biggest speed traps in Kalamazoo. This is a sign of a speed limit that is too low.

Good for Rick Jones
Government Does Something Right!

Census Shocker

Preliminary census numbers for Michigan are coming out today.

Census shocker: Detroit's population falls to 713,000
Interactive map: 2010 Census information, by state

Michigan's population was earlier announced to be 9883640, down .6% from 2000.

This means that the ideal district sizes are
Congress: 705,974
State senate: 260,096
State house: 89,851

The new number coming out...
Detroit: 713,777, down 25.3% from 952047.

— Oakland County saw its population grow from 1,194,196 to 1,202,362. [up .6%]
— Wayne County's dropped from 2,061,162 to 1,820,584. [down 11.7%]
— Macomb County's population grew from 788,149 to 840,978. [up 6.7%]
— Livingston County's population grew from 156,951 to 180,967. [up 15.3%]

The size of Detroit's population loss is shocking and deserves more detailed analysis later.

Implications. Detroit has fallen so much that it may be hard to draw two black-majority congressional districts, even if they extend outside Wayne County. I don't think there is precedent for losing a black-majority congressional district.

Wayne County will lose a full state senate district, dropping from 8 t0 7. That loss will be almost entirely in Detroit. Drawing five black-majority districts will be impossible, and even four may be tricky. That district will move somewhere else in the state, and the map will have to be considerably reshuffled to accommodate it.

Wayne County will lose three state house districts, at least two coming from Detroit. It will drop from 23 to 20. Three districts will move elsewhere in the state. One will probably end up in Macomb County, one in the Livingston/Washtenaw area, and one in the Kent/Ottowa area. At least two of these should be gains for Republicans.

Genessee County: down to 425790 from 436141. It will have fewer than the current five state house districts since it falls below the minimum threshold. Flint likely accounts for most of this loss.

Kalamazoo County: up to 250331 from 238603. Kalamazoo County will likely be its own state senate district, now that it is above the minimum threshold. This could be trouble for state senator Tonya Schuitmaker, who represents all of Kalamazoo but lives in VanBuren.

More later...

POLITICAL UPDATE--News from Abroad

This update focuses on news from abroad.

Sean Gabb: Persecuting Christians
Pat Buchanan: Robert Gates, Neo-Isolationist?
Pat Buchanan: Manufacturing's Dismal Decade
Phyllis Schlafly: Free Trade with Protectionist China Cheats America
Pat Buchanan: Will Multiculturalism End Europe?
Alex Kurtagic: UK’s Cameron Says Multiculturalism Has Failed—But His Solution Is Muscular Liberalism
Thomas Sowell: Undermining Allies
Eugene Girin: To Russia With Hate—Mass Immigration is Destroying Russia, Too

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Who Ruined Detroit?

Check out this item by Nicholas Stix at the Vdare blog. The comment by 'DrZero' it reproduces is especially fascinating.

American Thinker's Thomas Lifson explains the destruction of Detroit without once mentioning-"race," "black rule," or "diversity"

POLITICAL UPDATE--Government

This update focuses on government.

Gary North: How the Fed Can Be Abolished
Phyllis Schlafly: So Refreshing; Congress Doing Its Job
Phyllis Schlafly: A Warning About Things to Come
Walter Williams: Democracy Versus Liberty
Gary North: Setting the Government's Agenda
Gary North: Sacrosanct No More
Gary North: The Constitution Is on Life-Support
Gary North: When the Insiders Lose Control
Gary North: Facebook, Twitter, and the Arab Revolutions
Ann Coulter: What Liberals Don't Know About Guns, Chapter 217

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

POLITICAL UPDATE--Unions

This update focuses on unions.

Michelle Malkin: Teachers’ Unions 101: "A" Is For "Agitation"
Pat Buchanan: Why Wisconsin’s Scott Walker Must Win
Ann Coulter: Uncivil Unions
Ann Coulter: Look For the Union Fable
Michelle Malkin: Fleebaggers: The New Cut-and-Run Democrats
Pat Buchanan: Barack Hussein Alinsky
Gary North: Is the Teacher's Union as Dead as a Doornail?
Michelle Malkin: Apocalypse Now: Wisconsin vs. Big Labor

POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.

Hooray for Wyoming!

Wyoming will become the fourth state to allow carrying guns without a permit. The bill passed the legislature overwhelmingly and was signed by the governor. The other three states that allow 'constitutional carry' are Vermont, Alaska, and Arizona.

The Plight of the Democrat

Roll Call has what passes for a sob story in Washington. Michigan democrat congressmen who have been in office longer than most dictators are upset that Republicans control redistricting in Michigan.

Michigan Democrats Weary Over Redistricting

Just who are we talking about?

Congressman Age Years in Office
John Dingell....84...56
John Conyers...81...47
Dale Kildee.....81...35
Sander Levin...79...29

Just for comparison...

Dictator............ Age Years in Office
Fidel (Raul) Castro..85...51
Muammar Gadafi....68...41
Qaboos................70...40
Khalifa Al Khalifa.....75...39

What would they do if they weren't if office? They'd probably starve to death!

These four pillars of statesmanship are about to see their super-safe districts change shape. How can this be allowed to happen?? Oh, the humanity!!!

One of the downsides of gerrymandering is that it creates a few very safe districts for the other side. Ten years ago, Michigan Republicans figured that if these gerontocrats weren't going anywhere, they might as well represent as many democrats as possible. The fact is, the only time that these four face a competitive election is (maybe) once every ten years.

The Roll Call article never bothers to mention that the reason that democrats in southeast Michigan keep going through 'tough redistrictings' is that the region keeps losing population--often in absolute terms and certainly relative to the rest of the United States. Might this have something to do with the policies that they have advocated over the last 50 years?

The most likely outcome of redistricting this year is for Sander Levin and Gary Peters to end up in the same district. Who would win a battle between them would depend on how much of their current districts end up in the new district.

It's likely that John Dingell will be telling young whippersnappers in Congress about the Eisenhower administration for years to come.

Fewer County Commissioners

Redistricting also occurs at the county commission level. Redrawing county commission lines in controlled by a five-member board consisting of the County Prosecutor, Treasurer, Clerk, and chairmen of the Chairmen of the local Republican and democrat parties. In Kalamazoo County, that would be Jeff Fink, Mary Balkema, Tim Snow, Al Heilman, and Dave Pawlowski. The first four are Republicans.

In addition to the usual changes, the board can change the number of county commissioners. There are 17 at present, which was increased from 9 in 2001. The current board seems likely to reduce this number.

Reapportionment committee agrees 17 is too many members for Kalamazoo County Board

The census bureau has been releasing detailed population data state by state for the past month. Michigan's data hasn't been released yet.

Hadley: Hispanics are Restless

Kalamazoo police chief Jeff Hadley is upset.

Kalamazoo Public Safety Chief Jeff Hadley concerned he wasn't aware of immigration raids
Immigration enforcement agents arrest 20 in raids of Kalamazoo-area homes, restaurants and businesses

The feds caught a few illegal aliens without his knowledge. It turns out the DPS was informed, but Hadley didn't know until after the fact.

Hadley's concern:

“It concerns me,” Hadley said of not being made aware of the operation. “We have a (Hispanic) community here that is going to be restless. And we want to give them the best and most accurate information to calm some of their fears. I wasn’t given that information.”

Hadley seems to be more interested in calming fears than catching illegals. Two years ago, he declared Kalamazoo to be a de facto sanctuary city.

Kalamazoo to become Sanctuary City

Hadley refuses to share information about illegal aliens with the feds, but he gets upset when he doesn't get information from them.