Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Dan's 10-4 GOP Redistricting Map Part one (1-5) Part two (6-10) Part three (10-14)
While congressional lines attract the most attention, state legislative lines will also be redrawn. This article proposes two possible maps for the Michigan state senate. The state senate is particularly key since it has been the bulwark against total democrat control in Michigan since 1983.
Many of the rules for legislative district maps are the same as for congressional district maps. In particular, the Apol standards require that there be a small number of county and city/township breaks. These standards cannot legally bind future redistricting plans (LaRoux v. Secretary of State), but it is likely that any plan passed will at least come close to following them.
One major difference between the congressional and legislative standards is that populations for legislative districts are not required to be exact. They must be within 5% of the ideal population. For the Michigan Senate, the ideal population is 9983640/38=260095. The lower and upper thresholds are thus 247091 and 273100.
This makes it much easier to avoid breaks. In particular, there are only six counties that must have breaks. They are Oakland, Macomb, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw, and Ingham. The second map below shows that it is possible to have a map with only six breaks.
The Voting Rights Act is commonly understood to require black-majority districts when possible. There are currently five black-majority districts based in Detroit. Given that Detroit lost 220000 people out of the 240000 loss in Wayne County, Wayne will lose a senate seat, dropping from 8 to 7. Detroit really should lose a black district, but don’t expect Eric Holder to agree with that. It is possible to maintain five black districts with some creative line-drawing.
Redrawing the senate districts is a tricky problem. Small shifts in population can lead a district above or below the population thresholds. Because of the need to avoid breaks, this can require drastic changes in the districts. This is all too likely to lead to two incumbents ending up in the same district.
This is particularly true since Republicans now hold 26 of 38 senate seats. Only four of them are term-limited, so most will run for reelection. Some may have to move to avoid primary battles. This was not a problem when Republicans were redrawing districts in 2002, since almost all of the existing senators were term-limited.
First we review the existing senate districts. See a map of the districts below.
2001 State Senate Districts
The ratings that I give are for open seat races in off-year elections. Incumbents are generally stronger than nominees for open seats. Off-year elections are better for Republicans than presidential year elections. Term-limited senators are denoted TL.
1. Safe D [eastern Detroit] Coleman Young
2. Safe D [northern Detroit, Grosse Pointes] Bert Johnson
3. Safe D [central Detroit, Dearborn] Morris Hood
4. Safe D [central Detroit] Virgil Smith
5. Safe D [western Detroit] Tupak Hunter (TL)
6. Lean D [Livonia, Westland, Redford] Glenn Andersen (TL)
7. Lean R [western, southern Wayne County] Patrick Colbeck
8. Safe D [downriver Detroit suburbs] Hoon-Yung Hopgood
9. Safe D [southern Macomb County] Steven Bieda
10. Tossup [central Macomb County] Tory Rocca
11. Safe R [northern Macomb County] Jack Brandenburg
12. Safe R [northeastern Oakland County] Jim Marleau
13. Lean R [Troy, Royal Oak, Bloomfield] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. Safe D [southeastern Oakland County] Vincent Gregory
15. Safe R [southwestern Oakland County] Mike Kowall
16. Safe R [Lenewaee, Hillsdale, Branch, St. Joseph Counties] Bruce Caswell
17. Lean R [Monroe, parts of Washtenaw and Jackson Counties] Randy Richardville (TL)
18. Safe D [Washtenaw County] Rebekah Warren
19. Tossup [Calhoun, Jackson Counties] Mike Nofs
20. Lean R [Kalamazoo County] Tonya Schuitmaker
21. Safe R [Berrien, Cass, VanBuren Counties] John Proos
22. Safe R [Livingston, Shiawassee Counties] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham County] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Allegan, Barry, Eaton Counties] Rick Jones
25. Safe R [St. Clair, Lapeer Counties] Phil Pavlov
26. Tossup [eastern Genesee, northwest Oakland Counties] David Robertson
27. Safe D [Flint, western Genesee County] John Gleason (TL)
28. Safe R [Kent County outside Grand Rapids] Mark Jansen (TL)
29. Tossup [Grand Rapids, Kentwood] Dave Hildenbrand
30. Safe R [Ottawa County] Arlan Meekhof
31. Tossup [the Thumb] Mike Green
32. Tossup [Saginaw, Gratiot Counties] Roger Khan (TL)
33. Safe R [Clinton, Ionia, Montcalm, Isabella Counties] Judy Emmons
34. Lean R [Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, Mason Counties] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [north-central Lower Peninsula] Darwin Booher
36. Lean R [northeastern Lower Peninsula, Midland] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [northern Lower Peninsula, eastern upper peninsula] Howard Walker
38. Tossup [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa] Tom Casperson
The ratings break down to 13/6/7/1/11 from R to D.
Here is Map A. It has seven county breaks, counting Genesee as broken twice. As mentioned above, Wayne loses a seat. It’s a little tricky to designate the “new” seat, since every seat contains parts of existing seats, but I call it the VanBuren, Allegan, south Kent district. When possible, I tried to make Republican seats safer. However, a few actually got less safe due to population changes and county breaks. I denote a move one rating to the right by (+) and to the left by (-). The incumbent listed with a district is the one who represents the bulk of it, regardless whether he currently lives in the district.
1. Safe D [N Detroit, Grosse Pointes, Redford] Bert Johnson
2. Safe D [Detroit riverfront, Downriver] Coleman Young
3. Safe D [central Detroit, Lincoln Park, Southgate] (open?)
4. Safe D [West-central Detroit, Dearborn, Allen Park] Morris Hood
5. Safe D [W Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Taylor, Inkster] Tupak Hunter (TL)
6. Safe D(-) [SW Wayne, Westland] (open?)
7. Safe R(+) [Livonia, Canton, Plymouth, Northville] Patrick Colbeck
8. Safe R(++++) [VanBuren, Allegan, south Kent] (open)
9. Safe D [Warren, Roseville, S Clinton] Steven Bieda
10. Safe R(++) [Sterling Heights, Shelby, N Clinton] Tory Rocca
11. Safe R [N/E Macomb] Jack Brandenburg
12. Safe R [NE Oakland] Jim Marleau
13. Safe R(+) [Troy, Bloomfield, West Bloomfield, Commerce] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. Safe D [SE Oakland] Vincent Gregory
15. Safe R [SW Oakland] Mike Kowall
16. Safe R [Jackson, Hillsdale, Branch] Bruce Caswell
17. Tossup(-) [Monroe, Lenawee] Randy Richardville (TL)
18. Safe D [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Rebekah Warren
19. Safe R(++) [Calhoun, Barry, Ionia] Mike Nofs
20. Tossup(-) [Kalamazoo County] Tonya Schuitmaker
21. Safe R [Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph] John Proos
22. Safe R [Livingston, W Washtenaw] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Eaton, Clinton, Shiawassee] Rick Jones
25. Safe R [St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron] Phil Pavlov
26. Safe R(++) [S Genesee, NW Oakland, Waterford] David Robertson
27. Safe D [Flint, central Genesee] John Gleason (TL)
28. Safe R [central Kent, Walker] Mark Jansen (TL)
29. Tossup [Grand Rapids, N Kent] Dave Hildenbrand
30. Safe R [Ottawa County] Arlan Meekhof
31. Lean R(+) [Bay, Tuscola, Lapeer] Mike Green
32. Lean D(-) [Saginaw, N/W Genesee] Roger Khan (TL)
33. Safe R [Montcalm, Isabella, Gratiot, Mecosta, Clare] Judy Emmons
34. Tossup(-) [Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [NC Lower Peninsula] Darwin Booher
36. Safe R(+) [northeastern Lower Peninsula, Midland] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [N Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Howard Walker
38. Tossup [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa, Luce] Tom Casperson
The breakdown for these districts is 20/1/5/1/11 from R to D. The map makes a lot of seats safer, but it almost surely sacrifices the Saginaw seat.
It would be possible to make some seats safer by adding more breaks. Specifically:
Splitting Grand Rapids between the two Kent seats
Trading Muskegon for E Ottawa
Trading N Kalamazoo (K Twp, Oshtemo, Comstock) for VanBuren
Map B has only six county breaks. It saves the Saginaw seat at the cost of dismantling Mike Green’s district. It changes about half the districts. The changes are
12. Safe R [N Oakland, Pontiac] Jim Marleau
13. Safe R(+) [Rochester, Troy, Royal Oak] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. Safe D [SE Oakland] Vincent Gregory
15. Safe R [Bloomfield, W Bloomfield, Waterford, White Lake] (open)
18. Safe D [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Rebekah Warren
22. Safe R [Livingston, Shiawassee] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Eaton, Clinton, Gratiot, S Ingham] Rick Jones
26. Safe R(++) [S Genesee, Lapeer] David Robertson
27. Safe D [Flint, central Genesee] John Gleason (TL)
31. Safe R(++) [W Washtenaw, SW Oakland] Mike Kowall
32. Lean R(+) [Saginaw, Tuscola] Roger Khan/Mike Green
33. Safe R [Montcalm, Isabella, Clare, Osceola, Lake, Mason, Oceana] Judy Emmons
34. Lean R [Muskegon, Newaygo, Mecosta] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [central Lower Peninsula] (?)
36. Lean R [Bay, Midland, Gladwin, Arenac, Roscommon, Missaukee] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [N Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Howard Walker
The breakdown for these districts is 20/3/4/0/11 from R to D. The distribution is better, but many existing seats are carved up.
Which map do you prefer?
No comments:
Post a Comment