Friday, April 29, 2011
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
POLITICAL UPDATE--Immigration
This update focuses on immigration.
Washington Watcher: “Worse than A Crime—A Blunder”: Ron Paul’s Tragic Turnaround On Immigration
Phyllis Schlafly: Obama and Mexican Trucks
Washington Watcher: Good News—Legal Immigration Down in 2010. Bad News—It’s Still More Than A Million
Washington Watcher: Paez Without Honor— Hispanic Activist Judge Leads Attack On Arizona Law
Steve Sailer: Birthright Citizenship, Anarcho-Tyranny, And Beverly Hills Nativism
Allan Wall: Memo From Middle America (Formerly Known As Memo From Mexico): Birthright Citizenship—How Some Other Countries Handle It
For more on immigration, see VDARE.com.
Washington Watcher: “Worse than A Crime—A Blunder”: Ron Paul’s Tragic Turnaround On Immigration
Phyllis Schlafly: Obama and Mexican Trucks
Washington Watcher: Good News—Legal Immigration Down in 2010. Bad News—It’s Still More Than A Million
Washington Watcher: Paez Without Honor— Hispanic Activist Judge Leads Attack On Arizona Law
Steve Sailer: Birthright Citizenship, Anarcho-Tyranny, And Beverly Hills Nativism
Allan Wall: Memo From Middle America (Formerly Known As Memo From Mexico): Birthright Citizenship—How Some Other Countries Handle It
For more on immigration, see VDARE.com.
Kalamazoo County Commission Redistricting Plan Adopted
While the Michigan legislature begins to consider redistricting of congressional and state legislative districts, counties across the state must also redraw county commission districts. The deadline to pass plans is much sooner than it is for the state legislature, so some counties have already completed the process and others are about to. Kalamazoo County adopted its new plan on Tuesday.
Kalamazoo County board's size will go from 17 to 11 districts in 2013
Apportionment committee created a 'well-balanced plan' for downsized Kalamazoo County Board, chairman says
Political landscape changes as Kalamazoo County board shrinks to 11 districts
The plan is decided by the county apportionment commission, which consists of the county prosecutor, treasurer, and clerk and the chairmen of the county Republican and democrat parties. In Kalamazoo, that’s Jeff Fink, Mary Balkema, Tim Snow, Al Heilman, and Dave Pawloski. The first four are Republicans. Fink was elected chairman of the commission at an earlier meeting.
There is a law governing how districts must be drawn. It sets forth a number of general standards but is fairly vague about how exactly to measure them and how much deviation is acceptable. Probably the only inviolable standards are that districts must be contiguous and must have roughly equal population. We will examine these standards in more detail below.
Unlike congressional or legislative redistricting, the number of county commissioners is not fixed. It can vary, with the range depending on the population of the county. The apportionment commission gets to set the number of commissioners.
At an earlier meeting, the Kalamazoo apportionment commission decided that it wanted to reduce the number of commissioners. The number of commissioners is currently 17, which the apportionment commission felt made the county commission meetings too unwieldy. This was an increase from 9 commissioners in the 1990s.
It isn’t entirely clear why the number had been increased. There was speculation that then-prosecutor Jim Gregart thought that it would help Republicans win a majority. If so, it had at best mixed success, with Republicans winning a 10-7 majority in 2002, 2004, and 2010, while having an 8-9 minority in 2006 and 2008.
Any member of the commission was free to submit a plan. Snow submitted plans for 7, 9, 11, and 13 districts. Balkema submitted plans for 9 and 11 districts. So did Pawloski. After a bit of discussion, the commission settled on 11 districts. Balkema’s 11-district plan was supported by Heilman, while Snow was unhappy with the fact that the map split Oshtemo between two districts. Pawloski wasn’t thrilled with the map but was willing to support it if he could modify the districts in the democratic areas of Kalamazoo city and township.
Snow and Pawloski presented their own 11-district maps. Other members of the committee criticized these plans for having districts that contain parts of both Kalamazoo and Portage. After some discussion, the commission adopted the Balkema plan with Pawloski’s amendments. The vote was unanimous, though Snow voiced displeasure with some aspects of the plan.
Here is Balkema’s original plan.
Here is the revised plan, which was adopted by the commission.
Here is the statute governing county commission redistricting.
Consider the standards for the final plan.
A. All districts shall be single-member districts and as nearly of equal population as is practicable.
What is practicable? There is some ambiguity here. Republican Michigander has stated that a court case found 11.9% deviation to be the maximum allowable. Certainly some deviation is allowed to avoid breaking precincts or city/township boundaries.
The plan adopted complies well with this standard. The lowest deviation is -3.68% in district 11, and the highest is +3.74% in district 3. The total range of 7.42% is quite reasonable. Based on playing around with various maps, this blog found it quite difficult to get below a 7% range.
B. All districts shall be contiguous.
They are.
C. All districts shall be as compact and of as nearly square shape as is practicable, depending on the geography of the county area involved.
This is ambiguous. What is ‘practicable’? How do you measure compactness? There are multiple possible mathematical definitions of compactness and ‘squareness’, and the statute does not specify a standard.
The districts in the map all appear to be reasonably compact, with no outrageous gerrymandering in evidence.
D. No township or part thereof shall be combined with any city or part thereof for a single district, unless such combination is needed to meet the population standard.
Again this is somewhat ambiguous. There are four cities in Kalamazoo County: Kalamazoo, Portage, Parchment, and Galesburg. The final map has five districts that contain territory from both city and township. Balkema’s original plan had only three, but it had a slightly larger population variation (7.63%).
E. Townships, villages, and cities shall be divided only if necessary to meet the population standard.
Again it is ambiguous exactly what is ‘necessary’. Both the Balkema and final plan divide four jurisdictions, Kalamazoo, Portage, Kalamazoo Township, and Oshtemo. These are the four largest jurisdictions. Balkema’s plan had one district that contained part of Kalamazoo city and the rest in K Township, one district that contained part of Portage and four townships, and Kalamazoo and Oshtemo townships each split between two districts. Pawlowski amended this so that there are four districts that split K Township, three of which contain parts of Kalamazoo and one contains part of Oshtemo and Alamo.
F. Precincts shall be divided only if necessary to meet the population standard.
No precincts are divided.
G. Residents of state institutions who cannot by law register in the county as electors shall be excluded from any consideration of representation.
There are no state prisons in Kalamazoo County, so this is a moot point.
H. Districts shall not be drawn to effect partisan political advantage.
No one would ever dream of such a thing.
Now let’s consider the plan passed in detail. What follows are descriptions of the districts, which incumbent commissioners live in the districts, and who is most likely to win in the future. To get some idea of the voting histories of the districts, this blog picked three past competitive countywide races and computed their outcomes in the districts. The races are the 2010 Secretary of State race (Johnson v. Benson), the 2008 county treasurer race (Balkema v. Kaufmann), and the 2006 state senate race (George v. Lipsey).
District 1
Kalamazoo city 1, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, 17 and Kalamazoo Township 10, 13. Basically this is downtown, Northside, Eastside, Edison, and Douglas. This is the minority-majority district, with 43.3% white and 56.7% minority, including 40.3% black.
Carolyn Alford and Robert Barnard are the incumbents here. Alford is black, so she is likely to continue to dominate this district.
20% Johnson
19% Balkema
20% George
Safe Democrat
District 2
Kalamazoo city 3, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20, 21, 23, 24 and Kalamazoo Township 11. [Milwood, Crosstown, Edison]
David Buskirk, Jack Urban. Buskirk is heavily favored here, as this greatly resembles the district he held in the 90s when there were 9 commissioners.
33% Johnson
38% Balkema
36% George
Safe Democrat
District 3
Kalamazoo city 2, 4, 12, 19, 22, 25, 26, 28 [Westnedge Hill, Parkview Hills, Oakwood, Winchell, Knollwood, WMU campus]
John Taylor. This resembles Taylor’s current district, with WMU and Westnedge Hill added.
37% Johnson
37% Balkema
40% George
Safe Democrat
District 4
Kalamazoo city 5, 6, 10, Parchment, and Kalamazoo Township 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 14, 15 [Arcadia, Westwood, Northwood, Parchment, Spring Valley]
Brian Johnson, Michael Seals. This district contains more of Johnson’s old district, so he would be favored if he runs for reelection.
42% Johnson
40% Balkema
41% George
Safe Democrat
District 5
Kalamazoo Township 3, 6, 9, Oshtemo 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, Alamo [Westwood, northern and western Oshtemo, Alamo]
Open. This district contains part of four districts currently represented by Iden, Buchholz, Johnson, and Seals.
57% Johnson
55% Balkema
56% George
Safe Republican
District 6
Cooper, Richland, Ross Townships
Deb Buchholz, Jeff Heppler. Heppler represents somewhat more of this district and would likely be favored if he runs for reelection. He might be interested in running for Sheriff instead. He ran in 1998 and applied for the position in 2002.
63% Johnson
60% Balkema
58% George
Safe Republican
District 7
Comstock, Galesburg, Charleston, Climax, Wakeshma
Ann Nieuwenhuis. This contains all of her district and half of John Gisler’s. It is safer than her current district.
59% Johnson
57% Balkema
55% George
Safe Republican
District 8
Portage 2, Pavilion, Brady, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde
John Gisler, David Maturen. This has all of Maturen’s current district, and half of Gisler’s. Geography favors Maturen if he runs for reelection. But since Maturen is somewhat moderate, Gisler could have an ideological advantage in a Republican primary.
64% Johnson
61% Balkema
59% George
Safe Republican
District 9
Oshtemo 4, 5, 7, 8, Texas Township
Tim Rogowski, Brandt Iden. Rogowski has a geographic advantage and a bigger partisan geographic advantage, since most of the Republicans in the district are in Texas. Rogowski could potentially be vulnerable to a more conservative challenger. Iden could conceivably move to the open district 5.
63% Johnson
59% Balkema
61% George
Safe Republican
District 10
Portage 1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 16, 18, 19, 21 [Western Portage]
Phil Stinchcomb. This contains all of his current district and pieces from Ansari and Rogowski. It is a bit safer than his current district.
59% Johnson
58% Balkema
61% George
Safe Republican
District 11
Portage 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, 15, 17, 20 [Eastern Portage]
John Zull, Nasim Ansari. This has all of Zull’s district and half of Ansari’s. Zull is expected to retire at the end of his term, leaving the district to Ansari. Ansari could conceivably run for drain commissioner, which he applied for in 2007.
57% Johnson
56% Balkema
57% George
Safe Republican
Overall, this map appears quite likely to lead to a 7-4 Republican majority for the next decade.
Kalamazoo County board's size will go from 17 to 11 districts in 2013
Apportionment committee created a 'well-balanced plan' for downsized Kalamazoo County Board, chairman says
Political landscape changes as Kalamazoo County board shrinks to 11 districts
The plan is decided by the county apportionment commission, which consists of the county prosecutor, treasurer, and clerk and the chairmen of the county Republican and democrat parties. In Kalamazoo, that’s Jeff Fink, Mary Balkema, Tim Snow, Al Heilman, and Dave Pawloski. The first four are Republicans. Fink was elected chairman of the commission at an earlier meeting.
There is a law governing how districts must be drawn. It sets forth a number of general standards but is fairly vague about how exactly to measure them and how much deviation is acceptable. Probably the only inviolable standards are that districts must be contiguous and must have roughly equal population. We will examine these standards in more detail below.
Unlike congressional or legislative redistricting, the number of county commissioners is not fixed. It can vary, with the range depending on the population of the county. The apportionment commission gets to set the number of commissioners.
At an earlier meeting, the Kalamazoo apportionment commission decided that it wanted to reduce the number of commissioners. The number of commissioners is currently 17, which the apportionment commission felt made the county commission meetings too unwieldy. This was an increase from 9 commissioners in the 1990s.
It isn’t entirely clear why the number had been increased. There was speculation that then-prosecutor Jim Gregart thought that it would help Republicans win a majority. If so, it had at best mixed success, with Republicans winning a 10-7 majority in 2002, 2004, and 2010, while having an 8-9 minority in 2006 and 2008.
Any member of the commission was free to submit a plan. Snow submitted plans for 7, 9, 11, and 13 districts. Balkema submitted plans for 9 and 11 districts. So did Pawloski. After a bit of discussion, the commission settled on 11 districts. Balkema’s 11-district plan was supported by Heilman, while Snow was unhappy with the fact that the map split Oshtemo between two districts. Pawloski wasn’t thrilled with the map but was willing to support it if he could modify the districts in the democratic areas of Kalamazoo city and township.
Snow and Pawloski presented their own 11-district maps. Other members of the committee criticized these plans for having districts that contain parts of both Kalamazoo and Portage. After some discussion, the commission adopted the Balkema plan with Pawloski’s amendments. The vote was unanimous, though Snow voiced displeasure with some aspects of the plan.
Here is Balkema’s original plan.
Here is the revised plan, which was adopted by the commission.
Here is the statute governing county commission redistricting.
Consider the standards for the final plan.
A. All districts shall be single-member districts and as nearly of equal population as is practicable.
What is practicable? There is some ambiguity here. Republican Michigander has stated that a court case found 11.9% deviation to be the maximum allowable. Certainly some deviation is allowed to avoid breaking precincts or city/township boundaries.
The plan adopted complies well with this standard. The lowest deviation is -3.68% in district 11, and the highest is +3.74% in district 3. The total range of 7.42% is quite reasonable. Based on playing around with various maps, this blog found it quite difficult to get below a 7% range.
B. All districts shall be contiguous.
They are.
C. All districts shall be as compact and of as nearly square shape as is practicable, depending on the geography of the county area involved.
This is ambiguous. What is ‘practicable’? How do you measure compactness? There are multiple possible mathematical definitions of compactness and ‘squareness’, and the statute does not specify a standard.
The districts in the map all appear to be reasonably compact, with no outrageous gerrymandering in evidence.
D. No township or part thereof shall be combined with any city or part thereof for a single district, unless such combination is needed to meet the population standard.
Again this is somewhat ambiguous. There are four cities in Kalamazoo County: Kalamazoo, Portage, Parchment, and Galesburg. The final map has five districts that contain territory from both city and township. Balkema’s original plan had only three, but it had a slightly larger population variation (7.63%).
E. Townships, villages, and cities shall be divided only if necessary to meet the population standard.
Again it is ambiguous exactly what is ‘necessary’. Both the Balkema and final plan divide four jurisdictions, Kalamazoo, Portage, Kalamazoo Township, and Oshtemo. These are the four largest jurisdictions. Balkema’s plan had one district that contained part of Kalamazoo city and the rest in K Township, one district that contained part of Portage and four townships, and Kalamazoo and Oshtemo townships each split between two districts. Pawlowski amended this so that there are four districts that split K Township, three of which contain parts of Kalamazoo and one contains part of Oshtemo and Alamo.
F. Precincts shall be divided only if necessary to meet the population standard.
No precincts are divided.
G. Residents of state institutions who cannot by law register in the county as electors shall be excluded from any consideration of representation.
There are no state prisons in Kalamazoo County, so this is a moot point.
H. Districts shall not be drawn to effect partisan political advantage.
No one would ever dream of such a thing.
Now let’s consider the plan passed in detail. What follows are descriptions of the districts, which incumbent commissioners live in the districts, and who is most likely to win in the future. To get some idea of the voting histories of the districts, this blog picked three past competitive countywide races and computed their outcomes in the districts. The races are the 2010 Secretary of State race (Johnson v. Benson), the 2008 county treasurer race (Balkema v. Kaufmann), and the 2006 state senate race (George v. Lipsey).
District 1
Kalamazoo city 1, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, 17 and Kalamazoo Township 10, 13. Basically this is downtown, Northside, Eastside, Edison, and Douglas. This is the minority-majority district, with 43.3% white and 56.7% minority, including 40.3% black.
Carolyn Alford and Robert Barnard are the incumbents here. Alford is black, so she is likely to continue to dominate this district.
20% Johnson
19% Balkema
20% George
Safe Democrat
District 2
Kalamazoo city 3, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20, 21, 23, 24 and Kalamazoo Township 11. [Milwood, Crosstown, Edison]
David Buskirk, Jack Urban. Buskirk is heavily favored here, as this greatly resembles the district he held in the 90s when there were 9 commissioners.
33% Johnson
38% Balkema
36% George
Safe Democrat
District 3
Kalamazoo city 2, 4, 12, 19, 22, 25, 26, 28 [Westnedge Hill, Parkview Hills, Oakwood, Winchell, Knollwood, WMU campus]
John Taylor. This resembles Taylor’s current district, with WMU and Westnedge Hill added.
37% Johnson
37% Balkema
40% George
Safe Democrat
District 4
Kalamazoo city 5, 6, 10, Parchment, and Kalamazoo Township 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 14, 15 [Arcadia, Westwood, Northwood, Parchment, Spring Valley]
Brian Johnson, Michael Seals. This district contains more of Johnson’s old district, so he would be favored if he runs for reelection.
42% Johnson
40% Balkema
41% George
Safe Democrat
District 5
Kalamazoo Township 3, 6, 9, Oshtemo 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, Alamo [Westwood, northern and western Oshtemo, Alamo]
Open. This district contains part of four districts currently represented by Iden, Buchholz, Johnson, and Seals.
57% Johnson
55% Balkema
56% George
Safe Republican
District 6
Cooper, Richland, Ross Townships
Deb Buchholz, Jeff Heppler. Heppler represents somewhat more of this district and would likely be favored if he runs for reelection. He might be interested in running for Sheriff instead. He ran in 1998 and applied for the position in 2002.
63% Johnson
60% Balkema
58% George
Safe Republican
District 7
Comstock, Galesburg, Charleston, Climax, Wakeshma
Ann Nieuwenhuis. This contains all of her district and half of John Gisler’s. It is safer than her current district.
59% Johnson
57% Balkema
55% George
Safe Republican
District 8
Portage 2, Pavilion, Brady, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde
John Gisler, David Maturen. This has all of Maturen’s current district, and half of Gisler’s. Geography favors Maturen if he runs for reelection. But since Maturen is somewhat moderate, Gisler could have an ideological advantage in a Republican primary.
64% Johnson
61% Balkema
59% George
Safe Republican
District 9
Oshtemo 4, 5, 7, 8, Texas Township
Tim Rogowski, Brandt Iden. Rogowski has a geographic advantage and a bigger partisan geographic advantage, since most of the Republicans in the district are in Texas. Rogowski could potentially be vulnerable to a more conservative challenger. Iden could conceivably move to the open district 5.
63% Johnson
59% Balkema
61% George
Safe Republican
District 10
Portage 1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 16, 18, 19, 21 [Western Portage]
Phil Stinchcomb. This contains all of his current district and pieces from Ansari and Rogowski. It is a bit safer than his current district.
59% Johnson
58% Balkema
61% George
Safe Republican
District 11
Portage 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, 15, 17, 20 [Eastern Portage]
John Zull, Nasim Ansari. This has all of Zull’s district and half of Ansari’s. Zull is expected to retire at the end of his term, leaving the district to Ansari. Ansari could conceivably run for drain commissioner, which he applied for in 2007.
57% Johnson
56% Balkema
57% George
Safe Republican
Overall, this map appears quite likely to lead to a 7-4 Republican majority for the next decade.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Paul Maier Retires
The great Paul Maier, WMU history professor for 50 years and Christian apologist, is retiring. Western has been blessed to have him. I hope he has many more productive years in whatever he chooses to pursue next.
Professor Paul Maier on teaching for a half century at WMU: 'Too much fun' (with video)
Professor Paul Maier on teaching for a half century at WMU: 'Too much fun' (with video)
Jesse Jackson at Western
Jesse Jackson spoke at Western on Monday. I'm sure if anybody noticed. The Gazette reports the crowd as 'over 200'. Ann Coulter got over 2000.
Rev. Jesse Jackson urges crowd at Western Michigan University to push back against education cuts (with video)
The comments are highly unsympathetic.
Rev. Jesse Jackson urges crowd at Western Michigan University to push back against education cuts (with video)
The comments are highly unsympathetic.
Stun Gun Ban is Unconstitutional
A local judge has ruled that Michigan's ban on stun guns is unconstitutional. Michigan is one of only seven states that ban stun guns. The case while probably be appealed, but is nonetheless a victory for freedom.
UPDATE: Bay County judge says Second Amendment protects Bay City man's right to possess stun guns
UPDATE: Bay County judge says Second Amendment protects Bay City man's right to possess stun guns
Julie Mack exposes Rachel Maddow's Lies
Liberal columnist Julie Mack has written a devastating column ripping apart the report that Rachel Maddow aired on the Benton Harbor Emergency Financial Manager controversy.
Column: The facts in Benton Harbor get in the way of a good story for Rachel Maddow
This blog's only question is why Mack would think that any of Maddow's other reports are any more accurate.
Column: The facts in Benton Harbor get in the way of a good story for Rachel Maddow
This blog's only question is why Mack would think that any of Maddow's other reports are any more accurate.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
POLITICAL UPDATE--The Culture War
This update focuses on the culture war.
Steve Sailer: Census 2010: Hispanic Hype, Black Backwash, White Flight
Thomas Sowell: Voting With Their Feet
Gary North: The Most Important Unanswered Historical Question in the World: 'What Changed in 1800?'
Gary North: What Made America Great
Steve Sailer: Population Paradoxes—A Post-Anglo America Might Vote For Big Government, But Couldn't Afford It. What then?
Steve Sailer: National Journal’s Ronald Brownstein Confirms Sailer Strategy
Phyllis Schlafly: VAWA Is an Excellent Target for Spending Cuts
Gary North: Still Out of Step After All These Years
POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.
Steve Sailer: Census 2010: Hispanic Hype, Black Backwash, White Flight
Thomas Sowell: Voting With Their Feet
Gary North: The Most Important Unanswered Historical Question in the World: 'What Changed in 1800?'
Gary North: What Made America Great
Steve Sailer: Population Paradoxes—A Post-Anglo America Might Vote For Big Government, But Couldn't Afford It. What then?
Steve Sailer: National Journal’s Ronald Brownstein Confirms Sailer Strategy
Phyllis Schlafly: VAWA Is an Excellent Target for Spending Cuts
Gary North: Still Out of Step After All These Years
POLITICAL UPDATES are archived here.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part II: Oakland and Genesee
The first part of my analysis of redistricting the Michigan state house focused on Wayne County. That article contains the basics on the rules that any map must follow.
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
In particular, a good map avoids county breaks when possible. We have seen that districts in Wayne County can be drawn to avoid a break. This is also true for Washtenaw, Livingston, Ingham, and Lapeer Counties.
Part II begins by considering Oakland County. It is technically possible to avoid breaking Oakland, but only by significantly overpopulating its districts, which would lead to more city/township breaks, which must also be avoided.
Currently, Oakland has about 13.2 districts, sharing one township with a district mostly contained in Livingston County. Population growth in Livingston means that it no longer needs to be broken. The ideal number of districts for Oakland is now 13.38.
Oakland borders Genesee to the northwest. Genesee currently has five districts. It just barely avoided a break in 2000 by having district populations well under the ideal and just barely above the threshold. Population loss in Genesee, particularly in Flint, means that Genesee must now be broken. Its ideal number of districts is now 4.74.
Hence it works well the combine Oakland and Genesee so that one house district contains parts of both of them. These counties will share 18 districts with an ideal population of 90453.
See the current map here: MICHIGAN'S 110 HOUSE DISTRICTS
Populations were quite stable in southeastern Oakland, and my proposed districts don’t change much from the current map. The city of Pontiac did lose about 8000, and Southfield lost 6500. Both are democrat, black-majority areas. Population grew in north and west Oakland, leading to a reshuffling of the districts there. Among the biggest gainers were Novi, Commerce, and Oxford.
Meanwhile, population dropped by 10000 in Genesee. Flint lost 22500, and Flint, Mt. Morris, and Genesee townships each lost about 2000 meanwhile, Grand Blanc Township, a Republican area, gained about 8000.
There are currently two black-majority districts based in Southfield and Flint and my map easily maintains them.
Oakland County currently has six democrats and 7.2 Republicans. Only one district, the West Bloomfield/Commerce district (39) has changed parties all decade. That district is a tossup and the Waterford district (43) leans Republican. The rest are safe for their respective parties.
Genesee has four democrats and one Republican. The democrats are all safe and the southern tier (Grand Blanc, Fenton) district 51 leans Republican.
Given population shifts, a reasonable goal for Republicans is to win back district 39, secure Waterford (43) and draw a Republican district containing parts of Genesee and Oakland. My proposed map accomplishes all three goals. The Pontiac district (29) loses Auburn Hills and adds about 30000 people from democrat areas of West Bloomfield. The Waterford district loses its part of West Bloomfield and adds Springfield. (These townships do share more than a point in common due to an offset, i.e. they don’t quite align horizontally.) The new district 50 contains the eastern townships of Genesee and Thetford plus Brandon and Oxford from Oakland (it also uses an offset). This district should lean Republican.
Here are the maps. Amazingly, there are only three city/township breaks. They are in West Bloomfield, Oakland Township, and Flint. This is the absolute minimum possible.
Ratings and descriptions for the map:
26. Safe D [Royal Oak, Madison Heights]
27. Safe D [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park]
29. Safe D [Pontiac, SE West Bloomfield]
35. Safe D [Southfield]
37. Safe D [Farmington]
38. Safe R [Novi, Lyon]
39. Lean R(+) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom]
40. Safe R [Bloomfield, Auburn Hills]
41. Safe R [Troy, Clawson]
43. Safe R(+) [Waterford, Springfield]
44. Safe R [Milford, Highland, White Lake, Rose, Holly, Groveland]
45. Safe R [Rochester, S Oakland Twp]
46. Safe R [Independence, Orion, Addison, N Oakland Twp]
34. Safe D [Flint]
48. Safe D [Burton, Genesee, Mt. Morris, Vienna]
49. Safe D [western column, Flint Twp]
50. Lean R(+++) [eastern column, Thetford, Brandon, Oxford]
51. Lean R [Grand Blanc, Mundy, Fenton]
Hence we have the following ratings:
Rating: SR/LR/TU/LD/SD
Old……. 6 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 9
New…… 7 / 3 / 0 / 0 / 8
Previous articles on Michigan redistricting:
Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
In particular, a good map avoids county breaks when possible. We have seen that districts in Wayne County can be drawn to avoid a break. This is also true for Washtenaw, Livingston, Ingham, and Lapeer Counties.
Part II begins by considering Oakland County. It is technically possible to avoid breaking Oakland, but only by significantly overpopulating its districts, which would lead to more city/township breaks, which must also be avoided.
Currently, Oakland has about 13.2 districts, sharing one township with a district mostly contained in Livingston County. Population growth in Livingston means that it no longer needs to be broken. The ideal number of districts for Oakland is now 13.38.
Oakland borders Genesee to the northwest. Genesee currently has five districts. It just barely avoided a break in 2000 by having district populations well under the ideal and just barely above the threshold. Population loss in Genesee, particularly in Flint, means that Genesee must now be broken. Its ideal number of districts is now 4.74.
Hence it works well the combine Oakland and Genesee so that one house district contains parts of both of them. These counties will share 18 districts with an ideal population of 90453.
See the current map here: MICHIGAN'S 110 HOUSE DISTRICTS
Populations were quite stable in southeastern Oakland, and my proposed districts don’t change much from the current map. The city of Pontiac did lose about 8000, and Southfield lost 6500. Both are democrat, black-majority areas. Population grew in north and west Oakland, leading to a reshuffling of the districts there. Among the biggest gainers were Novi, Commerce, and Oxford.
Meanwhile, population dropped by 10000 in Genesee. Flint lost 22500, and Flint, Mt. Morris, and Genesee townships each lost about 2000 meanwhile, Grand Blanc Township, a Republican area, gained about 8000.
There are currently two black-majority districts based in Southfield and Flint and my map easily maintains them.
Oakland County currently has six democrats and 7.2 Republicans. Only one district, the West Bloomfield/Commerce district (39) has changed parties all decade. That district is a tossup and the Waterford district (43) leans Republican. The rest are safe for their respective parties.
Genesee has four democrats and one Republican. The democrats are all safe and the southern tier (Grand Blanc, Fenton) district 51 leans Republican.
Given population shifts, a reasonable goal for Republicans is to win back district 39, secure Waterford (43) and draw a Republican district containing parts of Genesee and Oakland. My proposed map accomplishes all three goals. The Pontiac district (29) loses Auburn Hills and adds about 30000 people from democrat areas of West Bloomfield. The Waterford district loses its part of West Bloomfield and adds Springfield. (These townships do share more than a point in common due to an offset, i.e. they don’t quite align horizontally.) The new district 50 contains the eastern townships of Genesee and Thetford plus Brandon and Oxford from Oakland (it also uses an offset). This district should lean Republican.
Here are the maps. Amazingly, there are only three city/township breaks. They are in West Bloomfield, Oakland Township, and Flint. This is the absolute minimum possible.
Ratings and descriptions for the map:
26. Safe D [Royal Oak, Madison Heights]
27. Safe D [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park]
29. Safe D [Pontiac, SE West Bloomfield]
35. Safe D [Southfield]
37. Safe D [Farmington]
38. Safe R [Novi, Lyon]
39. Lean R(+) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom]
40. Safe R [Bloomfield, Auburn Hills]
41. Safe R [Troy, Clawson]
43. Safe R(+) [Waterford, Springfield]
44. Safe R [Milford, Highland, White Lake, Rose, Holly, Groveland]
45. Safe R [Rochester, S Oakland Twp]
46. Safe R [Independence, Orion, Addison, N Oakland Twp]
34. Safe D [Flint]
48. Safe D [Burton, Genesee, Mt. Morris, Vienna]
49. Safe D [western column, Flint Twp]
50. Lean R(+++) [eastern column, Thetford, Brandon, Oxford]
51. Lean R [Grand Blanc, Mundy, Fenton]
Hence we have the following ratings:
Rating: SR/LR/TU/LD/SD
Old……. 6 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 9
New…… 7 / 3 / 0 / 0 / 8
Previous articles on Michigan redistricting:
Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
Friday, April 15, 2011
Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
Along with congressional and state senate maps, the state legislature will also redistrict the state house of representatives. The current state house map was drawn by Republicans, but has hardly any partisan slant at all. Its architects thought it would elect a large Republican majority, but control shifted to democrats in 2006 and 2008 before returning to Republicans in 2010.
Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps
See the current state house map here: MICHIGAN'S 110 HOUSE DISTRICTS
State house control is more likely to vary since representatives are limited to three two-year terms and elections are held in both presidential and off-years, unlike the state senate.
Many of the rules for legislative district maps are the same as for congressional district maps. In particular, the Apol standards require that there be a small number of county and city/township breaks. These standards cannot legally bind future redistricting plans (LaRoux v. Secretary of State), but it is likely that any plan passed will at least come close to following them.
One major difference between the congressional and legislative standards is that populations for legislative districts are not required to be exact. They must be within 5% of the ideal population. For the Michigan House of Representatives, the ideal population is 9983640/110=89851. The lower and upper thresholds are thus 85359 and 94343.
This makes it easier to avoid breaks. Many counties do not need to be broken at all. The first part of my analysis of the state house redistricting will focus on Wayne County. Wayne’s ideal number of districts is 20.26, so the ideal population for a district is 91029.
The Voting Rights Act is commonly understood to require black-majority districts when possible. There are currently ten black-majority districts based in Detroit and one each in Southfield and Flint. There is also one significantly Hispanic district in southern Detroit. Given that Detroit lost 220000 people out of the 240000 loss in Wayne County, Wayne County will lose three house seats, dropping from 23 to 20. Three districts must be shifted elsewhere in the state.
Detroit really should lose two or three black districts, but don’t expect Eric Holder to agree with that. It is possible to maintain eight black districts while minimizing the number of breaks, or keep ten black districts with some creative line-drawing and a larger number of breaks.
Republicans will want to improve their prospects as much as possible. In the 2002 election, they won five seats and came close in two others. The five they held were the Grosse Pointes, Dearborn, Livonia, Plymouth/Northville, and Canton. The two that were close are Redford and the southern tier. The Grosse Pointes flipped in 2008. The population of this district needs to expand, and can only add part of Detroit. Demographic changes (blacks moving in from Detroit) mean this district is now out of reach. The same is true for the Redford district.
The Dearborn district flipped in 2004 due to Muslim reaction against Bush. The Plymouth/Northville district flipped in 2006 due in part to the treachery of RINO John Stewart, but flipped back in 2010. The Canton district flipped in 2008. The southern tier district was finally won by Republicans in 2010.
Both maps below are the same in Western Wayne. The Livonia district is the entire city except a small corner in the southwest. The Canton district loses VanBuren and is now just Canton, which makes it more favorable to Republicans. The Plymouth/Northville district loses Wayne and adds part of Westland, making it a bit more favorable. The southern tier district loses Sumpter, making it a bit more favorable. Republicans have a reasonable chance of winning four districts.
The first map below has eight black majority districts. It breaks Detroit in four places and four other cities (Livonia, Dearborn, Westland, Taylor).
The second map below has ten black majority districts. It adds three more breaks in Detroit and one more break (Dearborn Heights) outside.
Note that it is just barely possible to create a Hispanic majority district, but only by breaking four jurisdictions (Detroit, River Rouge, Ecorse, Lincoln Park).
My ratings for both maps:
1. Safe D(-) [Grosse Pointes]
2-15, 17 Safe D
16. Tossup [Southern Tier]
18. Safe R [Livonia]
19. Lean R(+) [Canton]
20. Safe R(++) [Plymouth/Northville]
For Republicans, the biggest benefit in Wayne County is the fact that three of its districts will move to more favorable parts of the state.
Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps
See the current state house map here: MICHIGAN'S 110 HOUSE DISTRICTS
State house control is more likely to vary since representatives are limited to three two-year terms and elections are held in both presidential and off-years, unlike the state senate.
Many of the rules for legislative district maps are the same as for congressional district maps. In particular, the Apol standards require that there be a small number of county and city/township breaks. These standards cannot legally bind future redistricting plans (LaRoux v. Secretary of State), but it is likely that any plan passed will at least come close to following them.
One major difference between the congressional and legislative standards is that populations for legislative districts are not required to be exact. They must be within 5% of the ideal population. For the Michigan House of Representatives, the ideal population is 9983640/110=89851. The lower and upper thresholds are thus 85359 and 94343.
This makes it easier to avoid breaks. Many counties do not need to be broken at all. The first part of my analysis of the state house redistricting will focus on Wayne County. Wayne’s ideal number of districts is 20.26, so the ideal population for a district is 91029.
The Voting Rights Act is commonly understood to require black-majority districts when possible. There are currently ten black-majority districts based in Detroit and one each in Southfield and Flint. There is also one significantly Hispanic district in southern Detroit. Given that Detroit lost 220000 people out of the 240000 loss in Wayne County, Wayne County will lose three house seats, dropping from 23 to 20. Three districts must be shifted elsewhere in the state.
Detroit really should lose two or three black districts, but don’t expect Eric Holder to agree with that. It is possible to maintain eight black districts while minimizing the number of breaks, or keep ten black districts with some creative line-drawing and a larger number of breaks.
Republicans will want to improve their prospects as much as possible. In the 2002 election, they won five seats and came close in two others. The five they held were the Grosse Pointes, Dearborn, Livonia, Plymouth/Northville, and Canton. The two that were close are Redford and the southern tier. The Grosse Pointes flipped in 2008. The population of this district needs to expand, and can only add part of Detroit. Demographic changes (blacks moving in from Detroit) mean this district is now out of reach. The same is true for the Redford district.
The Dearborn district flipped in 2004 due to Muslim reaction against Bush. The Plymouth/Northville district flipped in 2006 due in part to the treachery of RINO John Stewart, but flipped back in 2010. The Canton district flipped in 2008. The southern tier district was finally won by Republicans in 2010.
Both maps below are the same in Western Wayne. The Livonia district is the entire city except a small corner in the southwest. The Canton district loses VanBuren and is now just Canton, which makes it more favorable to Republicans. The Plymouth/Northville district loses Wayne and adds part of Westland, making it a bit more favorable. The southern tier district loses Sumpter, making it a bit more favorable. Republicans have a reasonable chance of winning four districts.
The first map below has eight black majority districts. It breaks Detroit in four places and four other cities (Livonia, Dearborn, Westland, Taylor).
The second map below has ten black majority districts. It adds three more breaks in Detroit and one more break (Dearborn Heights) outside.
Note that it is just barely possible to create a Hispanic majority district, but only by breaking four jurisdictions (Detroit, River Rouge, Ecorse, Lincoln Park).
My ratings for both maps:
1. Safe D(-) [Grosse Pointes]
2-15, 17 Safe D
16. Tossup [Southern Tier]
18. Safe R [Livonia]
19. Lean R(+) [Canton]
20. Safe R(++) [Plymouth/Northville]
For Republicans, the biggest benefit in Wayne County is the fact that three of its districts will move to more favorable parts of the state.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
POLITICAL UPDATE--The Economy
This update focuses on the economy.
Gary North: Wealth Through Decentralization
Gary North: Insider Trading: A Bum Rap
Gary North: Bernanke Is Riding the Tiger
Gary North: Interest Rates on the Rise
James Ryan: The Strange Tale of Obama, The Teamsters, The Sierra Club—And Those Cheap, Dirty, Dangerous Mexican Trucks
Gary North: Gold or Uniformed Goons With Badges and Guns
Phyllis Schlafly: Death for Innovation
Gary North: Enemies of the Middle Class
Gary North: Gold Has No Intrinsic Value
Gary North: Booms, Busts, and Food Prices
See also:
Gary North series: What is Money?
The Recession Reader
The Bailout Reader
Gary North: Wealth Through Decentralization
Gary North: Insider Trading: A Bum Rap
Gary North: Bernanke Is Riding the Tiger
Gary North: Interest Rates on the Rise
James Ryan: The Strange Tale of Obama, The Teamsters, The Sierra Club—And Those Cheap, Dirty, Dangerous Mexican Trucks
Gary North: Gold or Uniformed Goons With Badges and Guns
Phyllis Schlafly: Death for Innovation
Gary North: Enemies of the Middle Class
Gary North: Gold Has No Intrinsic Value
Gary North: Booms, Busts, and Food Prices
See also:
Gary North series: What is Money?
The Recession Reader
The Bailout Reader
Thursday, April 07, 2011
POLITICAL UPDATE--Liberalism
This update focuses on liberalism.
Ann Coulter: Thanks For Raising My Taxes--What Else Can I Do For You?
Ann Coulter: Liberals: They Blinded Us With Science
Thomas Sowell: Union Myths
Ann Coulter: Six-Figure Bus Drivers & Other Working-Class Heroes
Dan Flynn: Spies Like Us
Andrew McCarthy: Jean-Jacques Jihad
Phyllis Schlafly: Feminism Has Become a Hot Topic
Michelle Malkin: De-Fund The Predators Of Planned Parenthood
James Fulford: They’ll Think You’re Signaling! Dog-Whistles From Goldwater To Reagan To Palin
Much information on liberal individuals and organizations can be found at David Horowitz's Discover the Network site.
Ann Coulter: Thanks For Raising My Taxes--What Else Can I Do For You?
Ann Coulter: Liberals: They Blinded Us With Science
Thomas Sowell: Union Myths
Ann Coulter: Six-Figure Bus Drivers & Other Working-Class Heroes
Dan Flynn: Spies Like Us
Andrew McCarthy: Jean-Jacques Jihad
Phyllis Schlafly: Feminism Has Become a Hot Topic
Michelle Malkin: De-Fund The Predators Of Planned Parenthood
James Fulford: They’ll Think You’re Signaling! Dog-Whistles From Goldwater To Reagan To Palin
Much information on liberal individuals and organizations can be found at David Horowitz's Discover the Network site.
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps
With the release of Michigan’s census numbers last month, redistricting season is well underway. I previously proposed two congressional district maps, and Republican Michigander has offered his 10-4 plan as well.
Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Dan's 10-4 GOP Redistricting Map Part one (1-5) Part two (6-10) Part three (10-14)
1. Safe D [N Detroit, Grosse Pointes, Redford] Bert Johnson
2. Safe D [Detroit riverfront, Downriver] Coleman Young
3. Safe D [central Detroit, Lincoln Park, Southgate] (open?)
4. Safe D [West-central Detroit, Dearborn, Allen Park] Morris Hood
5. Safe D [W Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Taylor, Inkster] Tupak Hunter (TL)
6. Safe D(-) [SW Wayne, Westland] (open?)
7. Safe R(+) [Livonia, Canton, Plymouth, Northville] Patrick Colbeck
8. Safe R(++++) [VanBuren, Allegan, south Kent] (open)
9. Safe D [Warren, Roseville, S Clinton] Steven Bieda
10. Safe R(++) [Sterling Heights, Shelby, N Clinton] Tory Rocca
11. Safe R [N/E Macomb] Jack Brandenburg
12. Safe R [NE Oakland] Jim Marleau
13. Safe R(+) [Troy, Bloomfield, West Bloomfield, Commerce] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. Safe D [SE Oakland] Vincent Gregory
15. Safe R [SW Oakland] Mike Kowall
16. Safe R [Jackson, Hillsdale, Branch] Bruce Caswell
17. Tossup(-) [Monroe, Lenawee] Randy Richardville (TL)
18. Safe D [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Rebekah Warren
19. Safe R(++) [Calhoun, Barry, Ionia] Mike Nofs
20. Tossup(-) [Kalamazoo County] Tonya Schuitmaker
21. Safe R [Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph] John Proos
22. Safe R [Livingston, W Washtenaw] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Eaton, Clinton, Shiawassee] Rick Jones
25. Safe R [St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron] Phil Pavlov
26. Safe R(++) [S Genesee, NW Oakland, Waterford] David Robertson
27. Safe D [Flint, central Genesee] John Gleason (TL)
28. Safe R [central Kent, Walker] Mark Jansen (TL)
29. Tossup [Grand Rapids, N Kent] Dave Hildenbrand
30. Safe R [Ottawa County] Arlan Meekhof
31. Lean R(+) [Bay, Tuscola, Lapeer] Mike Green
32. Lean D(-) [Saginaw, N/W Genesee] Roger Khan (TL)
33. Safe R [Montcalm, Isabella, Gratiot, Mecosta, Clare] Judy Emmons
34. Tossup(-) [Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [NC Lower Peninsula] Darwin Booher
36. Safe R(+) [northeastern Lower Peninsula, Midland] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [N Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Howard Walker
38. Tossup [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa, Luce] Tom Casperson
The breakdown for these districts is 20/1/5/1/11 from R to D. The map makes a lot of seats safer, but it almost surely sacrifices the Saginaw seat.
It would be possible to make some seats safer by adding more breaks. Specifically:
Map B has only six county breaks. It saves the Saginaw seat at the cost of dismantling Mike Green’s district. It changes about half the districts. The changes are
12. Safe R [N Oakland, Pontiac] Jim Marleau
13. Safe R(+) [Rochester, Troy, Royal Oak] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. Safe D [SE Oakland] Vincent Gregory
15. Safe R [Bloomfield, W Bloomfield, Waterford, White Lake] (open)
18. Safe D [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Rebekah Warren
22. Safe R [Livingston, Shiawassee] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Eaton, Clinton, Gratiot, S Ingham] Rick Jones
26. Safe R(++) [S Genesee, Lapeer] David Robertson
27. Safe D [Flint, central Genesee] John Gleason (TL)
31. Safe R(++) [W Washtenaw, SW Oakland] Mike Kowall
32. Lean R(+) [Saginaw, Tuscola] Roger Khan/Mike Green
33. Safe R [Montcalm, Isabella, Clare, Osceola, Lake, Mason, Oceana] Judy Emmons
34. Lean R [Muskegon, Newaygo, Mecosta] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [central Lower Peninsula] (?)
36. Lean R [Bay, Midland, Gladwin, Arenac, Roscommon, Missaukee] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [N Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Howard Walker
The breakdown for these districts is 20/3/4/0/11 from R to D. The distribution is better, but many existing seats are carved up.
Which map do you prefer?
Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Dan's 10-4 GOP Redistricting Map Part one (1-5) Part two (6-10) Part three (10-14)
While congressional lines attract the most attention, state legislative lines will also be redrawn. This article proposes two possible maps for the Michigan state senate. The state senate is particularly key since it has been the bulwark against total democrat control in Michigan since 1983.
Many of the rules for legislative district maps are the same as for congressional district maps. In particular, the Apol standards require that there be a small number of county and city/township breaks. These standards cannot legally bind future redistricting plans (LaRoux v. Secretary of State), but it is likely that any plan passed will at least come close to following them.
One major difference between the congressional and legislative standards is that populations for legislative districts are not required to be exact. They must be within 5% of the ideal population. For the Michigan Senate, the ideal population is 9983640/38=260095. The lower and upper thresholds are thus 247091 and 273100.
This makes it much easier to avoid breaks. In particular, there are only six counties that must have breaks. They are Oakland, Macomb, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw, and Ingham. The second map below shows that it is possible to have a map with only six breaks.
The Voting Rights Act is commonly understood to require black-majority districts when possible. There are currently five black-majority districts based in Detroit. Given that Detroit lost 220000 people out of the 240000 loss in Wayne County, Wayne will lose a senate seat, dropping from 8 to 7. Detroit really should lose a black district, but don’t expect Eric Holder to agree with that. It is possible to maintain five black districts with some creative line-drawing.
Redrawing the senate districts is a tricky problem. Small shifts in population can lead a district above or below the population thresholds. Because of the need to avoid breaks, this can require drastic changes in the districts. This is all too likely to lead to two incumbents ending up in the same district.
This is particularly true since Republicans now hold 26 of 38 senate seats. Only four of them are term-limited, so most will run for reelection. Some may have to move to avoid primary battles. This was not a problem when Republicans were redrawing districts in 2002, since almost all of the existing senators were term-limited.
First we review the existing senate districts. See a map of the districts below.
2001 State Senate Districts
The ratings that I give are for open seat races in off-year elections. Incumbents are generally stronger than nominees for open seats. Off-year elections are better for Republicans than presidential year elections. Term-limited senators are denoted TL.
1. Safe D [eastern Detroit] Coleman Young
2. Safe D [northern Detroit, Grosse Pointes] Bert Johnson
3. Safe D [central Detroit, Dearborn] Morris Hood
4. Safe D [central Detroit] Virgil Smith
5. Safe D [western Detroit] Tupak Hunter (TL)
6. Lean D [Livonia, Westland, Redford] Glenn Andersen (TL)
7. Lean R [western, southern Wayne County] Patrick Colbeck
8. Safe D [downriver Detroit suburbs] Hoon-Yung Hopgood
9. Safe D [southern Macomb County] Steven Bieda
10. Tossup [central Macomb County] Tory Rocca
11. Safe R [northern Macomb County] Jack Brandenburg
12. Safe R [northeastern Oakland County] Jim Marleau
13. Lean R [Troy, Royal Oak, Bloomfield] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. Safe D [southeastern Oakland County] Vincent Gregory
15. Safe R [southwestern Oakland County] Mike Kowall
16. Safe R [Lenewaee, Hillsdale, Branch, St. Joseph Counties] Bruce Caswell
17. Lean R [Monroe, parts of Washtenaw and Jackson Counties] Randy Richardville (TL)
18. Safe D [Washtenaw County] Rebekah Warren
19. Tossup [Calhoun, Jackson Counties] Mike Nofs
20. Lean R [Kalamazoo County] Tonya Schuitmaker
21. Safe R [Berrien, Cass, VanBuren Counties] John Proos
22. Safe R [Livingston, Shiawassee Counties] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham County] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Allegan, Barry, Eaton Counties] Rick Jones
25. Safe R [St. Clair, Lapeer Counties] Phil Pavlov
26. Tossup [eastern Genesee, northwest Oakland Counties] David Robertson
27. Safe D [Flint, western Genesee County] John Gleason (TL)
28. Safe R [Kent County outside Grand Rapids] Mark Jansen (TL)
29. Tossup [Grand Rapids, Kentwood] Dave Hildenbrand
30. Safe R [Ottawa County] Arlan Meekhof
31. Tossup [the Thumb] Mike Green
32. Tossup [Saginaw, Gratiot Counties] Roger Khan (TL)
33. Safe R [Clinton, Ionia, Montcalm, Isabella Counties] Judy Emmons
34. Lean R [Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, Mason Counties] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [north-central Lower Peninsula] Darwin Booher
36. Lean R [northeastern Lower Peninsula, Midland] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [northern Lower Peninsula, eastern upper peninsula] Howard Walker
38. Tossup [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa] Tom Casperson
The ratings break down to 13/6/7/1/11 from R to D.
Here is Map A. It has seven county breaks, counting Genesee as broken twice. As mentioned above, Wayne loses a seat. It’s a little tricky to designate the “new” seat, since every seat contains parts of existing seats, but I call it the VanBuren, Allegan, south Kent district. When possible, I tried to make Republican seats safer. However, a few actually got less safe due to population changes and county breaks. I denote a move one rating to the right by (+) and to the left by (-). The incumbent listed with a district is the one who represents the bulk of it, regardless whether he currently lives in the district.
1. Safe D [N Detroit, Grosse Pointes, Redford] Bert Johnson
2. Safe D [Detroit riverfront, Downriver] Coleman Young
3. Safe D [central Detroit, Lincoln Park, Southgate] (open?)
4. Safe D [West-central Detroit, Dearborn, Allen Park] Morris Hood
5. Safe D [W Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Taylor, Inkster] Tupak Hunter (TL)
6. Safe D(-) [SW Wayne, Westland] (open?)
7. Safe R(+) [Livonia, Canton, Plymouth, Northville] Patrick Colbeck
8. Safe R(++++) [VanBuren, Allegan, south Kent] (open)
9. Safe D [Warren, Roseville, S Clinton] Steven Bieda
10. Safe R(++) [Sterling Heights, Shelby, N Clinton] Tory Rocca
11. Safe R [N/E Macomb] Jack Brandenburg
12. Safe R [NE Oakland] Jim Marleau
13. Safe R(+) [Troy, Bloomfield, West Bloomfield, Commerce] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. Safe D [SE Oakland] Vincent Gregory
15. Safe R [SW Oakland] Mike Kowall
16. Safe R [Jackson, Hillsdale, Branch] Bruce Caswell
17. Tossup(-) [Monroe, Lenawee] Randy Richardville (TL)
18. Safe D [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Rebekah Warren
19. Safe R(++) [Calhoun, Barry, Ionia] Mike Nofs
20. Tossup(-) [Kalamazoo County] Tonya Schuitmaker
21. Safe R [Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph] John Proos
22. Safe R [Livingston, W Washtenaw] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Eaton, Clinton, Shiawassee] Rick Jones
25. Safe R [St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron] Phil Pavlov
26. Safe R(++) [S Genesee, NW Oakland, Waterford] David Robertson
27. Safe D [Flint, central Genesee] John Gleason (TL)
28. Safe R [central Kent, Walker] Mark Jansen (TL)
29. Tossup [Grand Rapids, N Kent] Dave Hildenbrand
30. Safe R [Ottawa County] Arlan Meekhof
31. Lean R(+) [Bay, Tuscola, Lapeer] Mike Green
32. Lean D(-) [Saginaw, N/W Genesee] Roger Khan (TL)
33. Safe R [Montcalm, Isabella, Gratiot, Mecosta, Clare] Judy Emmons
34. Tossup(-) [Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [NC Lower Peninsula] Darwin Booher
36. Safe R(+) [northeastern Lower Peninsula, Midland] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [N Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Howard Walker
38. Tossup [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa, Luce] Tom Casperson
The breakdown for these districts is 20/1/5/1/11 from R to D. The map makes a lot of seats safer, but it almost surely sacrifices the Saginaw seat.
It would be possible to make some seats safer by adding more breaks. Specifically:
Splitting Grand Rapids between the two Kent seats
Trading Muskegon for E Ottawa
Trading N Kalamazoo (K Twp, Oshtemo, Comstock) for VanBuren
Map B has only six county breaks. It saves the Saginaw seat at the cost of dismantling Mike Green’s district. It changes about half the districts. The changes are
12. Safe R [N Oakland, Pontiac] Jim Marleau
13. Safe R(+) [Rochester, Troy, Royal Oak] John Pappageorge (TL)
14. Safe D [SE Oakland] Vincent Gregory
15. Safe R [Bloomfield, W Bloomfield, Waterford, White Lake] (open)
18. Safe D [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Rebekah Warren
22. Safe R [Livingston, Shiawassee] Joe Hune
23. Safe D [Ingham] Gretchen Whitmer (TL)
24. Safe R [Eaton, Clinton, Gratiot, S Ingham] Rick Jones
26. Safe R(++) [S Genesee, Lapeer] David Robertson
27. Safe D [Flint, central Genesee] John Gleason (TL)
31. Safe R(++) [W Washtenaw, SW Oakland] Mike Kowall
32. Lean R(+) [Saginaw, Tuscola] Roger Khan/Mike Green
33. Safe R [Montcalm, Isabella, Clare, Osceola, Lake, Mason, Oceana] Judy Emmons
34. Lean R [Muskegon, Newaygo, Mecosta] Geoff Hansen
35. Safe R [central Lower Peninsula] (?)
36. Lean R [Bay, Midland, Gladwin, Arenac, Roscommon, Missaukee] John Moolenaar
37. Safe R [N Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Howard Walker
The breakdown for these districts is 20/3/4/0/11 from R to D. The distribution is better, but many existing seats are carved up.
Which map do you prefer?
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