Saturday, September 11, 2010

2010 Election Preview

The primary elections and state party conventions for 2010 have passed. Michigan's top constitutional offices, congressional seats, and the entire state legislature will be up for election next November. This article may be updated as the election approaches.

2010 Official Michigan General Candidate Listing

Governor-Leans Republican
Democrat Governor Jennifer Granholm is term-limited. She is fairly unpopular due to the state of Michigan's economy on her watch. Republicans have a good chance of picking up this seat.

On the democrat side, Lieutenant Governor John Cherry was seen as the clear favorite, but dropped out due to the widespread perception that he could not win the general election. The democrat candidate is Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, formerly a state senator and representative. Bernero is backed by labor unions and 'progressives'. His running mate is Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence, a member of the anti-gun group Mayors Against Illegal Guns.

The Republican nominee is Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder. Snyder is a moderate who is not pro-life. His positions on many issues are unclear. He won the primary with strong support from independent voters. His running mate is state rep. Brian Calley, a conservative.

See also:
Rick Snyder's Ten Platitudes
Granholm's Third Term
Virg Bernero: Career Politician

Attorney General-Leans Republican
Current Republican Attorney General Mike Cox is term limited. Both parties nominated candidates at conventions in August. Democrats chose Genessee County Prosecutor David Leyton to be their nominee.

The Republican candidate is former Michigan Court of Appeals Judge, state senator, and congressman Bill Scheutte from the Midland area. Both Scheute is generally considered conservative.

Secretary of State-Leans Republican
Current Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is term limited. WSU law professor Jocelyn Bensen is the democrat nominee. She is a radical leftist who has worked for many leftist organizations including the Southern Poverty Law Center and NAACP.

The Republican nominee is Oakland County Clerk Ruth Johnson. She is a conservative and former state representative. She helped to expose the fake tea party scandal in Oakland County.

Michigan Supreme Court
There are two seats up for election on the Michigan Supreme Court. They are those of conservative Republican Robert Young and renegade moderate Republican Elizabeth Weaver. Young is running for reelection. Weaver announced for reelection as an independent, then resigned allowing Governor Granholm to appoint as her successor democrat Alton Davis, who will run as an incumbent.

Republicans also nominated Wayne County judge Mary Beth Kelly and democrats nominated Oakland County judge Denise Langford Morris.

See also: Weaver's Betrayal

Other Statewide Offices
State Board of Education
Republicans: Eileen Weiser, Dr. Richard Zeile
Democrats: Elizabeth Bauer, Lupe Ramos-Montigny

U os M Board of Regents
Republicans: Andrea Fischer Newman, Andrew Richner
Democrats: Paul Brown, Greg Stephens

MSU Board of Trestees
Republicans: Mitch Lyons, Brian Breslin
Democrats: Dennis Denno, Colleen McNamara

WSU Board of Governors
Republicans: Diane Dunakiss, Danielle Karmanos
Democrats: Ed Bruley, Brenda Moon

Democrats have swept the education board elections in 2006 and 2008.

Michigan Congressional Seats
Democrats picked up two Michigan congressional districts in 2008. These will be highly contested seats in 2010. Long-time incumbents Bart Stupak, Pete Hoekstra, and Vern Ehlers are retiring, and Carolyn Kilpatrick was defeated by state senator Hansen Clarke in the democrat primary. Most other seats will be safe for the incumbent party.

1st District (Upper Peninsula, Northern Lower Peninsula) Toss-up.
Democrat Bart Stupak announced his retirement shortly after voting for Obamacare. While Stupak held this seat for 18 years, it is politically competitive and has been won by Republicans in the past. The democrat nominee will be state rep. Gary McDowell, who is nominally pro-life and pro-gun, after democrats forced all the other candidates (Joel Sheltrown, Connie Saltonstall, Matt Gillard) out of the race. The Republican nominee is Doctor Dan Benishek, who beat state senator Jason Allen by 15 votes in the primary. The district is ideologically ideosyncratic and highly competitive.

3rd District (Kent County) Safe Republican.
Republican moderate Vern Ehlers is retiring. The Republican nominee is conservative state rep. and Tea Party favorite Justin Amash. Democrats nominated Pat Miles for this seat.

6th District (Kalamazoo/St. Joseph) Safe Republican.
Moderate Republican Fred Upton is running for a 13th term. He overcame a surprisingly strong challenge by staunch conservative former state rep. Jack Hoogendyk, who won 43% in the primary. The democrat candidate will be leftist Kalamazoo City Commissioner Don Cooney, who lost to Upton in 2008 by over 20%. There will also be several third party candidates.

7th District (Battle Creek/Jackson) Leans Republican.
Democrat Mark Schauer very narrowly defeated Republican Congressman Tim Walberg 49-46 in a hard-fought and bitter race in 2008. In 2009, Republicans picked up the senate seat that Schauer vacated by a landslide 61-34 margin. Now Walberg is seeking to reclaim his seat, and easily won the nomination again. Schauer has compiled a highly liberal voting record in Washington, supporting socialized medicine, cap-and-trade, the Obama stimulus plan, and more. Several polls have shown Walberg to be the favorite.

9th District (eastern Oakland County) Leans Democrat.
Democrat Gary Peters won this seat by defeating Republican Joe Knollenberg by a wide margin. The Republican nominee is former state rep. Rocky Rachowski.

15th District (Downriver, Ann Arbor, Monroe County) Safe Democrat.
Democrat John Dingell, a 55-year incumbent, is facing a stronger than usual challenge from Republican Dr. Rob Steele. One poll showed the race with 9 points.

Michigan Senate
All 38 seats in the Michigan state senate are up for election, and 29 have no incumbent due to term limits. Republicans succently hold a 22-16 advantage after winning a 2009 special election to replace Mark Schauer. Democrats will likely target Republican-held seats in Kalamazoo County, Grand Rapids, the northeastern lower peninsula, Muskegon County, and western Wayne County. Republicans will target democrat-held seats in southern Genessee County, the Upper Peninsula, the Thumb, central Macomb county, and Livonia.

Michigan Senate Races

20th District-Leans Republican
This district includes all of Kalamazoo County and a small part of VanBuren county. Republican Senator Tom George is leaving due to term limits. There are contested races on both sides. On the democrat side, state Rep. Robert Jones of Kalamazoo is the nominee. He is a liberal who supported several gay rights measures and pushed a bill to allow a tax increase for the Kalamazoo arena proposal.

On the Republican side, the nominee is state rep. Tonya Schuitmaker, who has represented about 30,000 people in the 21st district in VanBuren County since 2004. She is moderate to conservative. Schuitmaker opposed making English the official language of Michigan and voted to ban smoking in restaurants and bars.

The state senate seats surrounding Kalamazoo County are safely Republican. Mike Nofs should easily hold the 19th district [Calhoun, Jackson Counties] while the seats vacated by Cameron Brown [St. Joseph, Branch, Hillsdale, Lenewaee Counties], Ron Jelenik [Berrien, VanBuren, Cass Counties] and Patty Birkholz [Allegan, Barry, Eaton Counties] should stay Republican.

Michigan House
All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives are up for election. Democrats currently have a 67-43 majority. Republicans will likely target a number of seats that they lost over the past three cycles. 52 seats are open due to term limits or candidates running for other offices.

Area State House Races

The above post examines local state house races in greater detail. Most local state house races are not especially competitive.

Kalamazoo County Commission
All 17 seats on the Kalamazoo County Commission will be up for election. Democrats hold a 9-8 edge. Republicans will target the seat of democrat John Niewenhuis in Oshtemo Township, who lost in the primary, and Michael Quinn in central Portage. Democrats may target Ann Niewenhuis in Comstock Township and Nasim Ansari in northern Portage. The races are examined in greater detail in the following post.

Kalamazoo County Commission Races

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