Monday, January 17, 2022

How Effective are Trump Primary Endorsements?

Unlike previous presidents, Donald Trump has made many endorsements in primary elections.  How much impact did they have?

Previous presidents rarely endorsed in contested primary elections.  This may have been because they wanted to be seen as 'above petty politics'.  Or perhaps they didn't want to risk their endorsee losing, which would weaken their political standing.

However, presidents have ways to intervene in primaries besides making endorsements.  They can help to raise money, round up endorsements by other party leaders, or instruct the party apparatus to support a candidate.  Previous presidents have relied more heavily on subtle means like these.  President Trump has had less control of the party establishment, but a stronger connection to the grassroots.  This likely explains his heavier reliance on endorsements to influence the Republican party.

METHODOLOGY

Ballotpedia has a convenient list of Trump's endorsements, from which the list in this article is adapted.

Endorsements by Donald Trump

This article is concerned with endorsements of a single candidate in Republican primaries (including jungle primaries).  I eliminated  WI-SC (nonpartisan) and the multi-candidate endorsements in WV-Senate and LA-Governor.  I added NB-Senate, which was misplaced on Ballotpedia's list.  I am not interested in general election endorsements, where the impact of a partisan endorser is likely to be negligible.

My methodology is to look at public polling and election results before and after Trump endorsed, and see whether there was a change.  If Trump's endorsement had an impact, the endorsee's number should improve, whether immediately or over time.

There are various limitations to this methodology.  Polling has both a theoretical margin of error, and practical difficulties finding a representative sample.  Nonetheless, it is still useful for observing trends.

We should also note that the effect of endorsement will vary from race to race.  Primary electorates in some districts are more friendly to Trump than others.  Endorsements generally have more impact when candidates are less known, which generally includes open seats.

RACES WITH INCUMBENTS

I separated the races with R incumbents into endorsements of incumbents and endorsements against incumbents.  The latter category was split into controversial and uncontroversial incumbents.  The latter distinction is somewhat subjective, but it attempts to separate incumbents who were in real danger of losing from those who faced hopeless, underfunded challengers.  Endorsing a bunch of incumbents who would win anyways is an easy way for an endorser to increase the winning percentage.

Uncontroversial incuments:
WIN AZ-4 (2020) Paul Gosar
WIN MS-3 (2020) Michael Guest
WIN NY-27 (2020) Christopher Jacobs
WIN WV-Governor (2020) Jim Justice
WIN AZ-Senate (2020) Martha McSally
WIN MO-Governor (2020) Mike Parson
WIN NB-Senate (2020) Ben Sasse
WIN NJ-2 (2020) Jeff Van Drew
WIN CA-8 (2018) Paul Cook
WIN NY-11 (2018) Dan Donovan
WIN AZ-Governor (2018) Doug Ducey
WIN TN-8 (2018) David Kustoff
WIN TX-Ag Comissioner (2018) Sid Miller 

I didn't check for polls of the house races, since it is unlikely there were any for most of them.  There don't seem to have been any polls for the AZ-Senate, and there was only one in Nebraska.  For AZ-Governor, there was only one primary poll.  For WV-Governor, the polls don't seem to have changed significantly after Trump's endorsement of Justice.

For MO-Governor, Parson did better in the final result than in the two polls before Trump's endorsement, but those polls included a potential candidate (former governor Eric Greitens) who didn't end up running.  It is difficult to say whether Trump's endorsement had any effect.

Controversial incumbents:
WIN TX-12 (2020) Kay Granger
WIN UT-AG (2020) Sean Reyes
LOSS VA-5 (2020) Denver Riggleman
LOSS CO-3 (2020) Scott Tipton
WIN SC-Governor (2018) Henry McMaster
WIN AL-2 (2018) Martha Roby
LOSS AL-Senate (2017) Luther Strange

There don't appear to have been any public polls for TX-12, UT-AG, VA-5, CO-3, or AL-2.  The VA-5 loss was at a convention.

For SC-Governor, a poll shortly before Trump's endorsement of Henry McMaster had him at 33% and 50% undecided.  About two months later, a poll had him at 51%.  McMaster eventually won the runoff by 7%.

In AL-2, Martha Roby got 39% in the primary, but after Trump's endorsement got 68% in the runoff.  Trump may have helped get voters who supported the other candidates to back Roby.

In AL-Senate, a poll two weeks before Trump's endorsement of Strange had Roy Moore leading by 2%.  The first poll after Trump's endorsement had Moore leading by 19%, and he maintained a roughly 10% average lead for the rest of the race,  and won by that amount.  Trump's endorsement didn't help here.

Challenges Against Incumbents:
WIN KS-Governor (2018) Kris Kobach
WIN SC-1 (2018) Katie Arrington

For KS-Governor, polls were about even between Kobach and Jeff Colyer.  The final poll showed Colyer leading by 2%.  After Trump's endorsement, Kobach won by 0.1%.  Trump's endorsement doesn't seem to have had much impact here.

In SC-1, a poll a month before the election had Mark Sanford leading by 1%.  Trump's endorsement came the day of the primary.  Sanford eventually lost by 4%.  If Trump's endorsement had any effect, it was small.

OPEN SEAT PRIMARIES

WIN OH-15 (2021) Mike Carey
LOSS NC-11 (2020) Lynda Bennett
WIN MN-7 (2020) Michelle Fischbach
WIN TX-23 (2020) Tony Gonzales
WIN TN-Senate (2020) Bill Hagerty
WIN TX-7 (2020) Wesley Hunt
WIN TX-13 (2020) Ronny Jackson
WIN NH-Senate (2020) Corky Messner
WIN NH-1 (2020) Matt Mowers
WIN TX-11 (2020) August Pfluger
WIN MT-AL (2020) Matt Rosendale
WIN PA-7 (2020) Lisa Scheller
WIN AL-Senate (2020) Tommy Tuberville
WIN CA-Governor (2018) John Cox
WIN FL-Governor (2018) Ron DeSantis
LOSS WY-Governor (2018) Foster Friess
WIN MI-Senate (2018) John James
WIN GA-Governor (2018) Brian Kemp
WIN UT-Senate (2018) Mitt Romney

There don't appear to have been any public polls for  NC-11, MN-7, TX-7, or PA-7.

In OH-15, a poll after Trump's endorsement of Carey found him leading with 20%, and he won with 36%.  It is reasonable to think that Trump's endorsement provided a big boost, but this can't be proved with polling data.

In TX-23, Tony Gonzales led the primary by 5% before Trump's endorsement, and won the runoff by 0.2%, so Trump's endorsement doesn't seem to have helped here.

In TN-Senate, Trump endorsed Bill Hagerty before he was even in the race.  This froze out some elected officials (like Rep. Mark Green) who were considering running.  Hagerty led from the beginning, and won the primary comfortably.  Trump's endorsement made a huge difference here.

In TX-13, Ronny Jackson got only 20% in the primary, shortly after Trump's endorsement, but grew to 56% in the runoff.  Perhaps Trump's endorsement helped over time.

In NH-Senate, Corky Messner gained steadily after Trump's endorsement and won comfortably.  The endorsement may have helped here.

In NH-1, Matt Mowers gained in the polls and won easily, so Trump's endorsement may have helped here.

In TX-11, there doesn't seems to have been any polling, but since August Pfluger won easily, it is reasonable to think Trump's endorsement helped signigicantly.

In MT-AL, there isn't enough evidence that the results changed after Trump's endorsement.

In AL-Senate, polling shifted substantially toward Tommy Tuberville after Trump's endorsement.  Notably, Trump campaigned agressively against Jeff Sessions, unlike many other endorsements that were just positive tweets.

For CA-Governor, John Cox gained at most a couple points after Trump's endorsement in the jungle primary, so the endorsement didn't seem to help much here.

For MI-Senate, polling swung to John James after Trump's endorsement.  Trump's endorsement seems to have helped here.

For FL-Governor, Adam Putnam led most early polls, but after Trump's endorsement, Ron DeSantis took the lead, and eventually won comfortably.  Trump's endorsement certainly helped here.

For WY-Governor, Trump endorsed Foster Friess on the day of the primary, too late to have any impact on the race.

For GA-Governor, Brian Kemp had already taken a significant lead by the time Trump endorsed him.  He won by a larger margin, so Trump's endorsement may have helped to run up the score.

For UT-Senate, all polls occurred after Trump's endorsement.  Mitt Romney was always a strong favorite here, so it likely didn't make much difference.

Trump's endorsements in open seat races were still somewhat cautious.  Fischbach, Hunt, Rosendale, Scheller, Cox, Kemp, and Romney were all clear favorites before Trump endorsed them.  Romney (and Ben Sasse) faced more pro-Trump challengers, and eventually voted for impeachment.  Many of Trump's other endorsements were candidates who were co-leaders (DeSantis, James) or in fields of unknowns.

INFORMED VOTER POLLING

Another way of evaluating the impact of Trump endorsements is polls that ask voters about a race before and after informing them about his endorsement.  One example is a poll of the GA governor primary by InsiderAdvantage.

GA-Governor (Trump endorsed David Purdue)
Before: Kemp 41, Purdue 21, Jones 11
After: Kemp 34, Purdue 34, Jones 10
Purdue increases by 13, and Kemp drops by 7.

Similar polls have been conducted by Club for Growth, which endorsed each of the candidates that Trump endorsed.

AL-Senate (Trump endorsed Mo Brooks)
Before: Brooks 55 Britt 12, Und 23
After: Brooks 72 Britt 13, Und 9
Brooks gained 17, mostly from undecideds.

NC-Senate (Trump endorsed Ted Budd)
Before: Budd 21, McCrory 45, Walker 13, Und 21
After: Budd 52, McCrory 28, Walker 8, Und 12
Budd gains 31, pulling from all the other options.

OH-16 (old)/OH-13 (new) (Trump endorsed Max Miller)
Before: Miller 39, Gonzalez 30, Und 31
After: Miller 69, Gonzalez 17, Und 14
Anthony Gonzalez later decided not to run for reelection.

Note that these shifts are the best case scenario, since not all voters will hear about Trump's endorsement, and these polls only provide this one additional piece of information for voters to consider.

CONCLUSION

Donald Trump's endorsements had essentially no impact on primary races with incumbents.  In AL-Senate, the polls actually moved against the candidate he endorsed.  There were two cases where Trump-endorsed challengers beat incumbents.  However, Jeff Colyer had not been elected governor in his own right, and Kris Kobach was likely the favorite from the beginning.  In SC-1, Mark Sanford only won the 2016 primary 56-44, so he had serious baggage prior to Trump's late endorsement.

Trump's endorsements had a more significant impact on open seat races.  Bill Hagerty, Tommy Tuberville, August Pfluger, Mike Carey probably owe their victories to Trump.  In other races, Trump seems to have helped less, and in some, he may not have helped at all.

The informed voter polls show that voters are more likely to support a candidate endorsed by Donald Trump--up to 30% of voters switched, in some cases.  However, in a real campaign, voters base their votes on a combination of factors, which explains why such dramatic shifts have not been observed in actual campaigns.

Trump's endorsements remained somewhat cautious approach prior to 2021.  Since losing the 2020 election, Trump has pursued a different strategy.  He has made many more endorsements, including downballot races like state legislatures.  He has also shown far less concern for electability, endorsing some candidates who seem to be clear underdogs in either primaries or generals.  This will provide a clear test of his continuing influence on Republican primary elections.

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Sunday, January 02, 2022

Michigan Redistricting: State Senate Map Approved

Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission has passed a state senate district map.



Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and MICRC.

Michigan State Senate Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan State Senate Map-MICRC

Here are brief district descriptions.  The partisan statistics come from Dave's Redistricting; they are averages of several statewide races.

1. 29R, 71D SC Detroit, Taylor
2. 26R, 74D Dearborn, Dearborn Heights
3. 26R, 74D central Detroit, Warren, Madison Heights
4. 48R, 52D S Wayne
5. 41R, 59D Canton, Westland
6. 31R, 69D Livonia, Redford, Farmington Hills
7. 26R, 74D Southfield, Pontiac, Bloomfield Hills
8. 22R, 78D N Detroit, Royal Oak
9. 51R, 49D Troy, Rochester Hills, Sterling Heights
10. 34R, 66D E Detroit, Warren, Sterling Heights
11. 50R, 50D Macomb Twp, Clinton Twp, Roseville
12. 53R, 47D Lake St. Clair shoreline
13. 44R, 56D West Bloomfield, Novi, Northville, Plymouth
14. 45R, 55D N Washtenaw, Jackson
15. 27R, 73D S Washtenaw
16. 63R, 37D Monroe, Lenawee, Hillsdale
17. 65R, 35D S Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph, Branch, E Calhoun
18. 62R, 38D W Calhoun, Barry, SE Kent, E Allegan
19. 42R, 58D Kalamazoo, Antwerp Twp
20. 59R, 41D N Berrien, Van Buren, W Allegan, SW Kent
21. 43R, 57D W Ingham, Eaton
22. 63R, 37D Livingston, S. Genessee
23. 59R, 41D W Oakland
24. 66R, 34D N Oakland, NW Macomb
25. 68R, 32D St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron
26. 62R, 38D Lapeer, NE Genessee, S Saginaw, W Tuscola
27. 38R, 62D central Genessee
28. 45R, 55D East Lansing, Clinton, Schiawassee
29. 38R, 62D S Grand Rapids, Wyoming, Kentwood
30. 51R, 49D N Grand Rapids, central Kent, NE Ottawa
31. 62R, 38D Ottawa, Holland area
32. 53R, 47D Muskegon, Lake Michigan coast
33. 68R, 32D N Kent, Ionia, Montcalm, Newaygo, Lake
34. 64R, 36D central Lower Peninsula
35. 49R, 51D Saginaw, Bay, Midland
36. 68R, 32D NE Lower Peninsula
37. 58R, 42D NW Lower Peninsula
38. 59R, 41D Upper Peninsula

The existing map has five black-majority districts, while this map has zero.  There are five districts over 40% black (3, 6, 7, 8, 10), with district 7 topping out at 47% black.  Detroit is sliced into eight districts, up from five in the current map.  All 12 metro-Detroit area D state senators can run for reelection, so there will be quite a scramble for seats, and a couple will probably be left out.  There are also plenty of state reps. who will want to move up, creating more contentious primaries.


1. (Safe D) Stephanie Chang will likely run here.  Erika Geiss also lives here, but could move to new 4.
2. (Safe D) This seat now has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Sylvia Santana represents most of this seat and will probably run here.
3. (Safe D) At least one of Adam Hollier and Marshall Bullock will probably run here, though one could run in either 8 or 10.
4. (Lean D) This area has moved toward Trump, but votes more D downballot.  Erika Geiss represents much of this seat, but lives in Taylor (in district 1).  Geiss is black and quite liberal, and may not fit well in this working class seat.  Former rep. Pat Somerville (R) would be a good candidate, if he were interested.
5. (Safe D) I'm not sure where in Livonia Dayna Polehanki lives, but this seat is likely hers if she wants it.  Otherwise, she could run in district 6.
6. (Safe D) Betty Jean Alexander is a political lightweight who beat a white incumbent in a huge primary upset in 2018.  She will likely run here, but could face Livonia incumbent Dayna Polehanki.
7. (Safe D) The most black district on the map is mostly in Oakland.  It will likely see a primary between white incumbents Jeremy Moss and Rosemary Bayer.
8. (Safe D) Mallory McMorrow lives here, and will probably run here, though the majority of her current district is in new 9.  She could face a primary from a Detroit candidate.
9. (Lean R) State rep. Michael Webber (R) may run here.  Mallory McMorrow (D) represents about 2/3 of this seat, but lives in new 8.
10. (Safe D) Paul Wojno will likely run here.  He could face a primary from a Detroit candidate.
11. (Tossup) This slice of Macomb has moved R, but votes more D downballot.  Michael MacDonald (R) lives here.
12. (Lean R) This distict hugging the Lake St. Clair shoreline is actually a good draw for Rs.  Unlike the congressional and state house maps, the Grosse Pointes are not drowned in a Detroit district.  State rep. Pam Hornberger (R) narrowly lost a state senate special primary in 2021, and is the likely R candidate here.
13. (Lean D) Ten years ago, this would have been an R district, but these upscale suburban areas moved left under Trump.  This district borders on safe D, and only the hope of a suburban backlash is keeping it competitive.  No incumbent lives here.
14. (Lean D) In one of the outrageous pro-D gerrymanders on the map, Ann Arbor is split in half in an attempt to drown most of Jackson County in a D district.  Possible student turnout dropoff and the possibility of an Ann Arbor progressive being nominated are only barely keeping this seat competitive.  State rep. Julie Alexander (R) could run here.
15. (Safe D) The rest of Washtenaw is safe for any D.  I don't know if Jeff Irwin lives here or in 14.
16. (Safe R) This seat is open, with old 17 incumbent Dale Zorn termed out.  State reps Bronna Kahle and TC Clements are running for this seat.
17. (Safe R) This absurd district takes a swath of rural territory from Berrien to Jackson counties.  No incumbent lives here, but Kim LaSata represents about 2/3 of this seat and could move.
18. (Safe R) This succeeds old 19, and goes from three whole counties to one whole county and parts of five others.  John Bizon shouldn't have any trouble here.
19. (Safe D) Mostly the same as old 20, plus or minus a couple townships.  Sean McCann was the first D to win this seat in 2018, but probably won't have much trouble this time.
20. (Safe R) This is a messier successor to old 26, stretching from Benton Harbor to the Grand Rapids suburbs.  Aric Nesbitt, who is the presumptive next R senate leader, lives in 19.  However, he will certainly run here, where the large majority of his constituents live.  Kim LaSata lives here, but could move to 17 to avoid a primary.
21. (Safe D) In another outrageous pro-D gerrymander, Lansing is split, and East Lansing is put a into separate district.  This district takes away the Eaton County base of Tom Barrett (R), who is running for Congress instead.
22. (Safe R) Livingston County will no longer share a district with Washtenaw, to the delight of folks on both sides of the county line.  Conservative Lana Theis faces a primary from a challenger unhappy with her refusal to endorse election fraud conspiracy theories.
23. (Safe R) Jim Runestad gets a significantly safer district, but could face a primary with Ruth Johnson if she chooses to move here.
24. (Safe R) This packs much of the most R territory in Oakland and Macomb.  Doug Wozniak just won a special election for a Macomb-based seat.  Ruth Johnson also lives here; while she doesn't represent much of this district now, she is well-known from her previous offices.  State rep. John Reilly could run if Johnson doesn't.
25. (Safe R) Dan Lauwers keeps almost all his existing district, and shouldn't have any trouble.
26. (Safe R) Kevin Daley is the only incumbent here, but could face a primary from a Saginaw or Genessee-based candidate.
27. (Safe D) This is a reasonable seat containing most of the core of Genessee County.  It is open, since D leader Jim Ananich is termed out.
28. (Lean D) This is the other half of the gerrymander that split East Lansing from Lansing.  There is a chance that this could be competitive due to turnout dropoff amongst MSU students and the chance of a D nominee too far left for the district.  State rep. Ben Frederick (R) would be a good candidate if he is interested.
29. (Safe D) This district was held by an R until 2018, but Grand Rapids has zoomed left under Trump.  Winnie Brinks will presumably run here.
30. (Lean R) Another gerrymander is splitting Grand Rapids between 29 and 30 to create a competitive district here.  Fortunately, the rural areas of Kent and Ottawa are still solidly R downballot, through the presidential numbers got much worse under Trump.  Mark Huizenga was elected in a special election in 2021, and should be a good candidate to hold this seat.
31. (Safe R) Roger Victory should have another easy victory here.
32. (Lean R) This seat loses heavily R Newaygo County and adds more competitive areas along the lakeshore in a mild pro-D gerrymander.  However, these areas have been moving right, so this district will still likely elect an R.  Curt VanderWall lives here, but has most of his territory elsewhere, while Jon Bumstead represents the majority of this seat, but lives outside it in Newaygo County.  Presumably, one of them will run here, and one will run elsewhere.
33. (Safe R) Rick Outman lives here, but the majority of his current constituents are in 34.  Jon Bumstead also lives here, but could move to 33.
34. (Safe R) This district has no incumbent, but Rick Outman could move here, since he represents the majority of it now.
35. (Tossup) This is another pro-D gerrymander, combining three mid-Michigan seats to make about the best district possible for Ds.  While all cities, Saginaw (blacks), Bay City (white working class), and Midland (upscale Rs) have little in common demographically.  A decade ago, this would have been safe D, but Bay County has moved right. Turnout in Saginaw and candidate quality have long been a problem for Ds.  With Jim Stamas term-limited, there is no incumbent here.  State rep. Annette Glenn is running.
36. (Safe R) This seat has no incumbent, but Curt VanderWall could move here.  State rep. Michele Hoitenga has announced a campaign for this seat.
37. (Safe R) This seat only slightly shifts from its current version.  With Wayne Schmidt term-limited, the seat is open.
38. (Safe R) This seat adds more area, and now has almost all of the Upper Peninsula.  Incumbent Ed McBroom has angered Trump due to his refusal to endorse election fraud conspiracy theories, but has yet to attract a primary challenger.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe D: 13 (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 19, 21, 27, 29)
Lean D: 4 (4, 13, 14, 28)
Tossup: 2 (11, 35)
Lean R: 4 (9, 12, 30, 32)
Safe R: 15 (16, 17, 18, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 31, 33, 34, 36, 37, 38)

The map is clearly gerrymandered to help Ds in the name of "partisan fairness".  Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Ann Arbor are split for no legitimate community of interest reason.  District 35 is also drawn to maximize the chance of electing a D.  The only noticably good draw for Rs is district 12.  The lack of any majority black districts is likely a violation of the Voting Rights Act.  Districts 1, 3, 6, 8, and 10 split Detroit, and have no good community of interest justification.  Districts 17, 18, 20, and 26 are also poor communities of interest.  The map looks sloppy, and breaks 29 counties (85 total breaks), up from 6 counties (7 total breaks) on the existing map.  This poor map indicates a need for major reform of the redistricting process in Michigan.

Coverage of last decade's redistricting:
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Friday, December 31, 2021

January 2022 Judiciary News

Happy new year of judiciary news.

2021 in Review:

Overall:  President Biden appointed 11 Circuit judges and 29 District judges in 2021.  This compares to President Trump's appointment of 12 Circuit judges and 6 District judges in 2021.  All of Biden's appointees come from states with two D senators (plus DC and PR).

Circuit judges:  Biden has filled 11 circuit court seats, and there are 19 more vacancies (5 with nominees).  There are 14 more D-appointed circuit court judges who are eligible for senior status but have not yet taken it.

The most votes for a circuit judge was 63 for Tiffany Cunningham, and the smallest margin was 1 for Jennifer Sung.  Biden's biggest impact is on the 2nd Circuit, where he has appointed three judges, and there are three more future vacancies to fill.

District judges:  Biden's larger number of district judges is due to a rule change that reduced the number of hours of debate on district judges from 30 to 2.

The most votes for a circuit judge was 81 for Zahid Quraishi (D-NJ), and the smallest margin was 4 for Deborah Boardman (D-MD).  Biden's biggest impact is on the D-NJ, where he has appointed four judges, and there are two more vacancies to fill.

Diversity:  President Biden's nominees are more racially diverse and have less traditional resumes.  However, they are more likely to have attended elite law schools.  Only one circuit appointee is a white male.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

9th Circuit:  The White House denied Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK) the ability to meet with judicial nominees for the 9th Circuit, with a staffer saying "Well, we want to protect our judges."  He put holds on several judges until the White House agreed to the meetings.

SD-NY:  Dale Ho, a nominee for SD-NY who runs the ACLU's Voting Rights Project, had a rough hearing at the Senate Judiciary Committee.  When confronted about his extreme rhetoric, he claimed to not remember calling the Republican Party an “anti-democratic virus.”  He also called the US Senate "anti-democratic".

ND-IL:  Senators Durbin and Duckworth presented a list of seven attorneys and judges for nomination to serve ND-IL, which currently has one open seat.

D-NV:  "Do you think we should forgive criminal misbehavior in the name of social justice?"  Senator John Kennedy asked law professor and district court nominee Anne Traum that question nine times without receiving a clear answer.

Nominations:
TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Supreme Court:  The court heard Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization on December 1.  The arguments appeared to go well for opponents of abortion.  The Advisory Opinions podcast breaks down the arguments in detail.

Supreme Court:  The Supreme Court ruled that a lawsuit by abortionists against Texas over its effective 6-week abortion ban may proceed, but left the law in effect.  Ed Whelan has more detailed analysis.

Breyer:  Leftists continue to hope that justice Breyer will retire, while R senators hedge on whether a nominee would get a hearing if they control the senate.  This sentence is particularly amusing:
Among other factors, it's hard to press an 83-year-old justice to retire when Biden says he's planning to run for reelection when he will be in his early 80s himself.
Kavanaugh:  Justice Kavanaugh did not promise that he would not vote to overturn Roe v. Wade, contrary to the Washington Post.

Kavanaugh:  According to Mark Meadows, President Trump’s chief of staff, Trump wanted to choose Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court seat that went to Brett Kavanaugh.  After the allegations against him, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, and Leonard Leo supporting dropping his nomination, while Don McGahn continued to back him.

Court reform:  President Biden's court commission did not endorse court packing or term limits, pointing out various problems with these proposals.  It did speak favorably of continuing audio livestreams of oral arguments and adoption of an ethics code for Supreme Court justices.

Ethics:  Various proposals to strengthen ethics rules for the judiciary are being considered in Congress.  The article also surveys the long history of tension between Congress and the judiciary over judicial ethics rules.

3rd Circuit:  Judge D. Brooks Smith took senior status on December 4.  Smith was appointed to WD-PA by Reagan in 1988 and the 3rd Circuit by W in 2002.  He finished his term as chief of the 3rd Circuit on December 1.  For those who say this move is a betrayal of all those who worked to confirm him to lifetime judicial positions, the obvious rejoinder is

6th Circuit:  A 6th panel allowed Biden's vaccine mandate to go into effect, dissolving a stay issued by the 5th Circuit.  The ruling was written by Julia Smith Gibbons, a moderate appointed by W and joined by Jane Branstetter Stranch, an Obama appointee.  Joan Larsen, a Trump appointee, issued a dissent.  The case is likely to be appealed to the Supreme Court.

9th Circuit:  Trump appointees have frequently issued dissents from denial of a rehearing en banc.  This often signals to the Supreme Court that a case should be taken up, and many such cases have been overturned.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 107 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.
7th Circuit: David Hamilton (Obama) TBD (senior)
3rd Circuit: D. Brooks Smith (W) 12/4/21 (senior)
D-DC: Colleen Kollar-Kotelly (Clinton) XX (senior)
7th Circuit: Diane Wood (Clinton) TBD (senior)
D-MD: Paul Grimm (Obama) 12/11/22 (senior)
4th Circuit: Diana Motz (Clinton) TBD (senior)
6th Circuit: Helene White (W) TBD (senior)
6th Circuit: R. Guy Cole (Clinton) TBD (senior)
3rd Circuit: Thomas Ambro (Clinton) TBD (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Court size:  Leftist Billy Corriher points out that several states have expanded the size of their state supreme courts.  He claims that this means that R politicians who call court packing 'unprecedented' are wrong.  However, he ignores the fact that supreme court justices in all states except Rhode Island have limited terms and are subject to election, while federal judges are not.

Montana:  The Montana legislature is asking the US Supreme Court to rule that it can subpoena Montana's judiciary.  The legislature previously issued subpoenas to determine the extend of judicial lobbying against legislation affecting the judiciary.  The Montana Supreme Court quashed the subpoenas, rufusing to recuse themselves from their own case.

New Jersey:  New Jersey Supreme Court Justice Jaynee LaVecchia will not extend her scheduled retirement past December 31.  Governor Phil Murphy nominated Rachel Wainer Apter to replace her on March 15, but state senator Holly Schepisi (R) is holding up the nomination, and it is unlikely to be confirmed before the legislative session ends on January 11.

North Carolina:  The North Carolina Supreme Court decided that judges may either recuse themselves from cases or ask the full court whether they should be recused.  Plaintiffs seeking to strike down ballot initiatives on voter ID and tax limitation were seeking to force two R justices to recuse from the case.  This ruling was not specifically about that case, but it appears that they will not be forcibly recused.

North Carolina:  Justice Robin Hudson (D) will retire in 2022.  This was expected, as she would only be able to serve 13 months before reaching the age limit of 72.  Justice Sam Ervin IV (D) will seek reelection, and Court of Appeals Judge Lucy Inman (D) will seek Hudson's seat.  Judges Richard Dietz and April Wood (R) are running for the seats.

Tennessee:  The Tennessee Council for Judicial Appointments nominated Court of Appeals Judges Kristi Davis and William Neal McBrayer, and Associate Solicitor General Sarah Campbell for the Tennessee Supreme Court seat open due to the death of Justice Cornelia Clark.  Governor Bill Lee will appoint one of them to the court.

Numbers and Trivia:

Chief Judges:  The Presidents who appointed chief judges of the 13 appeals courts are Clinton (4), W (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, Fed), and Obama (9, DC).  There are two chief judges that will change in 2021. They are expected to be

1st Circuit (June 16) Jeffrey Howard (W) -> David Barron (Obama)
10th Circuit (October 1) Timothy Tymkovich (W) -> Jerome Holmes (W)

There could be more, and the dates could be sooner, if any chief judge steps down early.

Here are the numbers of senior status declarations/retirements for federal judges (circuit judges) for the past year.
1 (0) December 2020
20 (3) January
19 (3) February
8 (3) March
7 (1) April
8 (5) May
4 (0) June
5 (2) July
4 (2) August
2 (0) September
5 (3) October
7 (1) November
9 (7) December 2021

99 (30) Total

Resources:
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Thursday, December 30, 2021

Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Approved

Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission has passed a new congressional district map.


The map above is from the page at RRH Elections linked below, which also has individual district maps.


Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and 538.

Michigan Congressional Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan Congressional Map-538

Here are brief district descriptions.  The partisan statistics come from Dave's Redistricting; they are averages of several statewide races.

1. 59R, 39D Upper Peninsula, northern Lower Peninsula.
2. 63R, 35D West Michigan coast, central MI
3. 45R, 53D Grand Rapids and suburbs, north Ottawa, Muskegon
4. 51R, 47D Allegan, Van Buren, most of Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, S Ottawa, N Berrien
5. 61R, 37D South-central Michigan, including the entire lower tier
6. 36R, 63D Washtenaw, plus south and west Wayne
7. 49R, 50D Central MI (Ingham, Livingston, Eaton, Clinton, Schiawassee)
8. 48R, 50D Genesee, Saginaw, Bay, Midland
9. 64R, 35D The Thumb, N Oakland, N Macomb
10. 50R, 49D S Macomb, Rochester Hills
11. 39R, 59D Central Oakland
12. 25R, 74D W Detroit, Southfield, Livonia, Dearborn, Westland
13. 25R, 74D E Detroit, Downriver, Romulus

The overall takeaway is that the map is skewed to favor Ds, though not as badly as it could have been.  Consider the districts in detail.

1. (Safe R) This district doesn't change much, it just adds a few counties for popluation.  It becomes about 1% more R.  Rep. Jack Bergman previously pledged to retire this year (after three terms), but hasn't said yet whether he will keep his pledge.  If he does, a troll (below the bridge) candidate may finally win the seat.

2. (Safe R) This combines northern parts of old 2 represented by Bill Huizenga and a lot of rural territory from old 4 represented by John Moolenaar.  It is even safer, moving about 2% more R.  Moolenaar will run here, though he lives in Midland (in new 8).

3. (Tossup) This district drops heavily R rural Kent, Barry, Ionia, and Calhoun.  It adds Kentwood (D), Wyoming (lean R), N Ottawa (R), and the city of Muskegon (D), moving about 6% left.  This is a pro-D gerrymander in the name of "partisan fairness".  Incumbent Peter Meijer faces several pro-Trump challengers due to his vote for impeachment.  Meijer can still win this district, but if he loses the primary, the district will likely go D.

4. (Safe R) This has the majority of old 6, represented by longtime moderate R Fred Upton, but also includes the south Ottawa base of Bill Huizenga.  It drops the southern tier (R) and adds S Ottawa (R) and Battle Creek area (lean D).  The partisanship hasn't changed.  Huizenga is running here, while Upton has yet to announce his plans.  A wildcard here is state rep. Steve Carra, who was endorsed by Trump due to Upton's vote for impeachment.  He has been drawn into new district 5, where Tim Walberg will run.  If Carra continues to run against Upton, he could split the anti-Upton vote and allow Upton to win, or Upton and Huizenga could split the establishment vote and allow Carra to win.

5. (Safe R) This is mostly old 7, dropping Eaton and Washtenaw, and adds heavily R areas of rural Calhoun, St. Joseph, Cass, and S Berrien.  It moves about 4.5% right.  Tim Walberg will be safe here.

6. (Safe D) This succeeds old 12, adding W Washtenaw and dropping Dearborn and part of Downriver.  It moves 2% more R.  Fortunately, the commission did not extend this district into R territory south or west of it.  The city of Dearborn has been represented by a member of the Dingell family since 1964, but Debbie Dingell will move here, since she represents the bulk of this territory.

7. (Tossup) This is a highly competitive district containing Lansing and surrounding counties.  It contains the core of old 8 (Ingham and Livingston), which was drawn to lean R but was won by Elissa Slotkin (D) in 2018.  It adds lean R areas from old 4 and 7, while losing R (but D-trending) areas in Oakland.  Slotkin, who lives in Oakland, will move here.  The R candidate is likely to be state senator Tom Barrett, whose district was carved up.

8. (Lean D) This succeeds old 5, adding the rest of Saginaw County and the city of Midland.  While the district moves about 1% right, this is basically the best configuration for Dan Kildee (D) short of adding Lansing to the district.  This is another example of gerrymandering by the commission.

9. (Safe R) This succeeds old 10, losing a bit of central Macomb and adding some of north Oakland.  The partisanship hasn't changed.  Lisa McClain won't have a problem here.

10. (Tossup) This moves 7% right compared to old 9.  It adds lean R areas of central Macomb and Rochester Hills, while losing D areas of Oakland.  Andy Levin (D) represents much of this district but will run in new 11.  Several Oakland County Rs are considering running here, including former US Senate nominee John James, 2020 MI-11 nominee Erik Esshaki, and former Rep. (14-18) Mike Bishop.  It remains to be seen whether any prominent Macomb Rs will run, and who the Ds will nominate.

11. (Safe D) This has much of old 11, along with parts of old 9 and 14.  It moved 8.5% left of old 11.  It contains the homes of Haley Stevens and Andy Levin, who will compete against each other in the D primary.

12. (Safe D) The commission decided to reduce MI from two black-majority districts to none, with both new 12 and 13 now about 46% black.  This is likely to be challenged in court.  New 12 combines parts of old 13 and 14, but it contains the Southfield base of Brenda Lawrence, who will likely run here.

13. (Safe D) New 13 combines parts of old 13 and 14, but it contains the south Detroit base of Rashida Tlaib, who will run here.  She is being challenged in the D primary by state rep. Shri Thanedar, a wealthy businessman who represents a district in north Detroit.

Overall, districts 3 and 8 are clearly gerrymandered to favor Ds, and district 2, 5, and 9 are drawn to pack Rs.  However, the line between districts 5 and 6 is good, and districts 7 and 10 are reasonably competitive districts.  Old district 2 is effectively the one eliminated, since it doesn't have a clear successor in the new map.  The lack of any black-majority districts is likely to be challenged in court.

Coverage of last decade's redistricting:
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021

December 2021 Judiciary News

Merry judiciary news.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Confirmations:  Most R senators are voting against most Biden judicial nominees, but Lindsay Graham has voted for most of them.

6th Circuit:  President Biden nominated Andre Mathis to a Tennessee seat on the 6th Circuit.  Mathis has a very weak resume, with no clerkship and no judicial experience.  This is the first Biden nominee who does not have the support of his home state senators.

SD-NY:  Carrie Severino explains the extreme record of Dale Ho, who runs the ACLU's Voting Rights Project.

ED-VA:  Senators Warner and Kaine recommended US Magistrate Judge Elizabeth Hanes and assistant U.S. attorney Melissa O’Boyle for the vacancy created when Judge John A. Gibney Jr. assumed senior status.

Nominations:
TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Supreme Court:  The court will hear Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization on December 1.  Conservative legal commentators are advocating for the court to overturn Roe v. Wade, including pieces by Ed Whelan, Carrie Severino (1, 2, 3), and many other authors.

Court reform:  President Biden's court commission will delay its final report to December 15.  Its draft report has criticized court packing, but is more open to term limits.

DC Circuit:  Justice Laurence Silberman (DC Circuit) objected to the participation of Emmet Sullivan (D-DC) on a judicial nomination commission for the District of Columbia’s municipal courts.  The judicial ethics code forbids judges from serving on such a commission, while the statute creating the DC courts requires the commission include "an active or retired Federal judge serving in the district".

4th Circuit:  Judge Robert B. King has rescinded his declaration of senior status, which he submitted in August.  The seat is associated with West Virginia.  According to David Lat, King preferred former Senator Carte Goodwin, who was King's law clerk.  The White House preferred J. Jeaneen Legato, who has close ties to Joe Manchin, but weak credentials.  The last time a circuit judge rescinded his declaration of senior status was in 2018, when Michael Kanne (7th Circuit) did so in a dispute over who would be nominated to succeed him.

6th Circuit:  The 6th Circuit was randomly selected to hear challenges to Biden's vaccine mandate.  The court has 10 conservatives and 6 liberals.  It may consider the case en banc.  The 5th Circuit has previously stayed the mandate in its boundaries.

D-SD:  Judge Brian Buescher (D-NB) dismissed contempt of court charges against three US marshals.  The charges were demanded by Judge Charles Kornmann (D-SD) after the marshals removed several defendants from his courtroom in a dispute over their refusal to state whether they received the COVID vaccine. 

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 113 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.
ED-PA: Cynthia Rufe (W) 12/31/21 (senior)
D-AK: Timothy Burgess (W) 12/31/21 (senior)
ED-NY: William Kunz (Obama) 12/31/21 (senior)
D-DE: Leonard Stark (Obama) TBD (elevated)
2nd Circuit: Susan Carney (Obama) TBD (senior)
ND-NY: David Hurd (Clinton) TBD (senior)
SD-NY: Allison Nathan (Clinton) TBD (elevated)

State Supreme Courts:

Indiana:  Justice Steven David will retire in fall 2022.  He is 64, and was appointed in 2010 by Mitch Daniels.  Governor Eric Holcomb will get his second appointment to the court.

New York:  Governor Kathy Hochul nominated Judge Shirley Troutman to fill a vacancy on the New York Court of Appeals. Troutman currently serves on the Appellate Division of State Supreme Court, and previously held lower judicial positions.  She is a liberal black woman from the Buffalo area. The state senate must confirm the nomination.

Pennsylvania:  Commonwealth Court Judge Kevin Brobson (R) defeated Superior Court Judge Maria McLaughlin (D) 51-49.  Brobson replaces a retiring R judge, so the court will still have a 5 D 2 R breakdown.  Rs also won the election for the Superior Court.

Tennessee:  Eleven lawyers, including four judges, have applied for the Tennessee Supreme Court seat open due to the death of Justice Cornelia Clark.  The Council for Judicial Appointments will screen the applicants on December 8 and 9, and Governor Bill Lee will appoint one to the court.  Tennessee's constitution requires that no more than two justices come any of the three Grand Divisions, so the new justice will come from the Middle or East of the state.

Vermont:  Justice Beth Robinson was confirmed 51-45 to the 2nd Circuit on November 1.  Her successor will be appointed by Governor Phil Scott from candidates approved by the Judicial Nominating Board.

Virginia:  Justice William C. Mims will not seek reappointment when his term expires on March 31.  Mims is a somewhat moderate R who is 64.  Republican victories in the Virginia legislature in November mean that they should be able to appoint a conservative to replace him.

Numbers and Trivia:

3rd Circuit:  As of December 4, Michael Chagares will be the Chief Judge of the 3rd Circuit, taking over from Brooks Smith.  Smith was appointed to WD-PA by Reagan in 1988 and the 3rd Circuit by W in 2002.  Chagares was appointed by W in 2006.

9th Circuit:  As of December 1, Mary Murguia will be the Chief Judge of the 9th Circuit, taking over from Sidney Thomas, who was appointed by Clinton.  Murguia was appointed to D-AZ by Clinton in 2000 and the 9th Circuit by Obama in 2011.  She is the sister of Carlos Murguia (D-KS), who resigned due to sexual harassment and misconduct.

Chief Judges:  The Presidents who appointed chief judges of the 13 appeals courts will be Clinton (4), W (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, Fed), and Obama (9, DC).

Resources:
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Monday, November 01, 2021

Redistricting Commission Sham Revealed

On the MIRS Monday podcast, democrat operative Mark Grebner, who was one of the plotters behind the Michigan Independent Redistricting Commission, revealed that it was actually fraudulently designed to allow more gerrymandering.

This isn't a surprise to those who closely studied the proposal.  But it should be news to the millions of voters who assumed that the proposal was intended to produce reasonable district maps.  The proposal has a ranked list of priorities that the commission is supposed to follow.  At the top of the list are nearly equal populations, following the Voting Rights Act, and being contiguous, which were already law prior to the proposal.  After that, the commission is instructed to draw districts based on 'communities of interest'.

What are they?  Since there is no objective definition, a community of interest can be anything the commissioners want it to be.  Moreover, this concept has been used to ignore traditional redistricting criteria like compactness that minimizing county and city splits.

The key quote came 22 minutes into the podcast:

MIRS Monday, Oct. 25, 2021

'Communities of interest' is a will-o'-the-wisp.  It's a reef of smoke. It can be whatever is necessary.  And the crucial thing is who decides what's a community of interest that gets preserved.  Answer: the commission does.  Right?  And who gets to review that?  Frankly, nobody does.  OK?  So it's up to them.  Now, was this originally intended?  Yes.  Yes.  That's all I'm gonna say.  Just, yes.  That was built in, it was understood from the beginning.

Provisions further down the list like county integrity and compactness were never intended to be followed.  The commission was set up to gerrymander in the name of 'communities of interest'.  Will the commissioners allow themselves to be manipulated?

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Sunday, October 31, 2021

November 2021 Judiciary News

Happy Reformation Day.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

9th Circuit:  Judge Lucy Koh had a rough hearing in her nomination for the 9th Circuit.  She was grilled on a ruling allowing California to ban religious services in the name of fighting COVID, despite allowing comparable secular activities.

9th Circuit:  The Senate Judiciary Committee deadlocked 10-10 on the nomination of Jennifer Sung to the 9th Circuit, who made nasty comments against Brett Kavanaugh.  Notably, this is the first time Lindsay Graham has voted against a Biden judicial nominee.

Leahy:  Senator Patrick Leahy complained that R senators did not show "courtesy" toward nominee Beth Robinson (2nd Circuit) even though he obstructed many R nominees when he was Judiciary Committee Chairman.

Nominations:
TBD

The Federal Judiciary:

Kavanaugh:  Justice Kavanaugh tested positive for COVID on September 30, just before the start of the court's new term.  He was back on the bench on October 12.

Alito:  Justice Alito responded to an attack by leftist scribe Adam Serwer in a recent speech.  Ed Whelan dismantles Serwer's hysterical response.

Ginsberg:  Katie Couric hid comments by Ruth Bader Ginsberg in 2016 critical of kneeling during the national anthem.  RBG said they show 'contempt for a government that made a decent life possible'.  Couric claims she was protecting the justice, though it seems she was really protecting the leftist narrative.

Thomas:  Thomas Jipping celebrates Clarence Thomas' 30 years on the court.

Sotomayor:  Back in 2020, Justice Sotomayor praised radical San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin, calling him “a great beacon to many”.

9th Circuit:  The 9th Circuit will consider en banc a case from six years ago.  The panel led by Carter appointee Dorothy Nelson somehow claimed that second degree murder is not a crime of violence.

Court reform:  A draft report from President Biden's court commission criticized court packing, saying "The risks of court expansion are considerable, including that it could undermine the very goal of some of its proponents of restoring the court's legitimacy."  The draft was more open to term limits, though there are obstacles to that idea also.

Court reform:  The Advisory Opinions podcast breaks down the draft of the Supreme Court commission.  Notably, it notes that court expansion is often a sign of the breakdown of democracy, as in Venezuela and Turkey.

Conflicts:  Legislation has been introduced in Congress to tighten financial-disclosure requirements after a Wall Street Journal investigation found 131 judges who had ruled in cases when they had a financial interest.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 108 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.
ED-VA: Raymond Alvin Jackson (Clinton) 11/23/21 (senior)
4th Circuit: Henry Floyd (Obama) TBD (senior)
2nd Circuit: José Cabranes (Clinton) TBD (senior)
2nd Circuit: Rosemary Pooler (Clinton) TBD (senior)
ND-MS: Michael Mills (W) 11/1/21 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

California:  Why did California Supreme Court Justice Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar resign on October 31?  It could be because he is married to Judge Lucy Koh (ND-CA), who has been nominated for the 9th Circuit.  She would have to recuse from any appeal of a case he had ruled on, which is especially important given the 9th Circuit's frequent use of limited en banc panels.

North Carolina:  The North Carolina Supreme Court is still considering whether to force two R justices to recuse themselves so that it can more easily strike down ballot initiatives on voter ID and tax limitation that were passed by the legislature and the voters in 2018.  The R controlled state legislature is considering impeachment of some D justices in response.  During an impeachment trial, the justices would be suspended from hearing cases.  Even though there would not be the votes to convict, there is no limit to how long an impeachment trial can last.

Pennsylvania:  The one state supreme court election this November is in Pennsylvania.  Commonwealth Court Judge Kevin Brobson (R) faces Superior Court Judge Maria McLaughlin (D).  The two candidates are trading attacks.  McLaughlin currently has a fundraising advantage, but outside spending favors Brobson.  There are also elections for the Superior Court and Commonwealth Court.

Texas:  Governor Greg Abbott appointed Evan Young to the Texas Supreme Court. He graduated from Yale Law in 2004, and clerked for Wilkinson (4th Circuit) and Scalia. This is Abbott’s fifth appointment to the court. Eva Guzman vacated the seat to run for Attorney General in 2022. The seat will be up for election in 2022, and Justice David Schenck, of the 5th Court of Appeals is running.

Utah:  Utah Supreme Court Justice Constandinos Himonas will retire on March 1, 2022.  He is 57, and was appointed to the court by Gary Herbert in 2015.  Governor Spencer Cox will get his first appointment to the court.

Numbers and Trivia:

Thanks to user JOEYFALCONI for computing the number of NO votes cast against confirmed circuit court nominees:

Obama-538 total no votes. Avg=9.8 per confirmed nom
Trump-1966 total no votes. Avg=36.4 per confirmed nom
Biden-206 total no votes. Avg=41.2 per confirmed nom

Resources:
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Thursday, September 30, 2021

October 2021 Judiciary News

Judicial activism is spooky.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Harsh Voruganti of the Vetting Room assesses judicial vacancies and nominations in the Northeast, Atlantic Coast, Midwest, South, and West.

Breyer:  Justice Breyer cautioned against remaking the court, warning "What goes around comes around."

Nominations:  On September 30, President Biden submitted his first judicial nominations in a state (Ohio) with an R senator.  Biden reportedly hasn't reached out to R senators in LA, FL, IN.  However, senators in WI, PA, OK, ID have had talks with the White House.

Judiciary Committee:  R senators on the Judiciary Committee grilled nominees Jennifer Sung (9th Circuit) and Beth Robinson (2nd Circuit) on their extreme views and questionable temperament.

DC Circuit:  Why hasn't there been a nomination for the pending vacancy on the DC Circuit?  The article has plenty of speculation, but few certain facts.

SD-CA:  This district is suffering from a shortage of judges, with 7 of 13 seats vacant. President Biden has not made any nominations yet, but US Magistrate Judge Linda Lopez and San Diego Superior Court Judge Jinsook Ohta are reportedly being considered.

Nominations:
ND-OH:  Bridget Brennan-acting U.S. Attorney, ND-OH
ND-OH:  Charles Fleming-public defender
ND-OH:  David Augustin Ruiz-Magistrate Judge
ND-GA:  Victoria Marie Calvert-public defender
ND-GA:  Sarah Elisabeth Geraghty-clerk for James Zagel (ND-IL), activist lawyer
D-NH:  Samantha Elliott-private practice
SD-NY:  Dale Ho-clerk for Barbara Jones (SD-NY), ACLU lawyer
SD-CA:  Linda Lopez-Magistrate Judge
SD-CA: Jinsook Ohta-clerk for Barry Moskowitz (SD-CA), Superior Court Judge, San Diego County
WD-WA:  John Chun-clerk for Eugene Wright (9th Circuit), Washington Court of Appeals judge

The Federal Judiciary:

Supreme Court:  By a 5-4 vote, the court declined to issue an injunction against a Texas law banning abortion after six weeks, but only allowing private parties to sue to enforce it.  Progressives threw a fit and declared it the end of Roe v. Wade.  The ruling also spurred condemnation of the "shadow docket", despite the fact that the abortionists were the ones asking for an emergency ruling.

Abortion:  Many Trump-appointed judges have made rulings hostile to abortion, and several, including Amul Thapar (6th Circuit), have called Roe v. Wade wrongly decided.

Conflicts:  A Wall Street Journal investigation found 131 judges who had ruled in cases when they had a financial interest.  The conflicts generally seem to be unintentional, as many judges did not realize what stocks were in their portfolios.

4th Circuit:  A job ad posted by the 4th Circuit says it "prides itself on being a collegial, collaborative, and progressive organization".

Oklahoma:  The US Judicial Conference is recommending that 3 judgeships be added to ED-OK, and 2 to ND-OK.  The districts currently have a total of 5 judgeships.  This is due to a surge of cases following the Supreme Court ruling in McGirt v. Oklahoma that many crimes in Oklahoma's Indian reservations need to be tried in federal court rather than state court.

ND-OH:  Over the years, Judge John R. Adams has been accused of several incidents of anti-social conduct, including "blocking in the car of an intern who accidentally parked in his space".  In 2016, the Judicial Council of the Sixth Circuit eventually ordered him to undergo a psychiatric evaluation.  The evaluation found no mental illness, and the complaint was dismissed.  Adams sued, but the suit was dismissed due to lack of harm to him.  He is appealing.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 116 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.
D-MN: Susan Nelson (Obama) 12/31/21 (senior)
ND-CA: Lucy Koh (Obama) TBD (elevation)

State Supreme Courts:

California:  California Supreme Court Justice Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar will resign on October 31 to become the new president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  He is 49 and was appointed by Jerry Brown in 2015.  Governor Gavin Newsom will get his second appointment to the court.

Maryland:  Governor Larry Hogan appointed Judge Joseph Getty as Chief Judge and Judge Steven B. Gould to represent Montgomery County on the Maryland Court of Appeals on September 2.  Chief Judge Mary Ellen Barbera was age-limited on September 10.  Governor Hogan has appointed five of seven judges on the court.

North Carolina:  Ballot initiatives on voter ID and tax limitation were passed by the legislature and the voters in 2018.  The NAACP is challenging them in the courts, arguing that the legislature could not legitimately pass them since they were elected from supposedly gerrymandered districts.  With the case being appeals to the NC Supreme Court, the NAACP is demanding that two R justices recuse themselves, and the 4 D justices on the court may force them to do so.  This could allow D justice Sam Ervin IV, who is up for reelection in 2022, to vote to uphold the laws while the other three strike them down.

Tennessee:  Tennessee Supreme Court Justice Cornelia Clark died of cancer at age 71.  She was appointed by Phil Bredesen (D).  Governor Bill Lee will get his first appointment to the court, which now has 3 R and 1 D appointees.  Tennessee's constitution requires that no more than two justices come any of the three Grand Divisions, so the new justice will come from the Middle or East of the state.

Numbers and Trivia:

Retirements (Clinton):  When did appeals court judges appointed by Bill Clinton retire?  By retire, I mean leave active status, that is resign, retire, take senior status, or die in office.  Clinton appointed 66 appeals court judges.  All his appointees have been eligible for retirement for at least one year.  Judges who announced future retirement are counted as retired.  Here are the numbers.

2 (3%) resigned early (Henry, Sotomayor)
12 (18%) retired when eligible (within 1st year)
30 (45%) retired later
3 (5%) died in office (Michael, Parker, Kelly)
19 (29%) still active

11 (17%) retired under R president
36 (55%) retired under D president
19 (29%) still active
17 (26%) retired in first year of D president

Here are the summary statistics for Carter, Reagan, HW Bush, and Clinton.

JC  RWR HW WJC
07% 05% 12% 03% resigned early
29% 53% 50% 18% retired when eligible (within 1st year)
55% 28% 24% 45% retired later
09% 07% 02% 05% died in office
00% 07% 12% 29% still active

43% 46% 50% 17% retired under R president
57% 47% 38% 55% retired under D president
00% 07% 12% 29% still active
09% 14% 12% 26% retired in first year of same party president

Appointees of Reagan and HW were far more likely to retire when eligible.  Appointees of Carter and particularly Clinton have been far more partisan in the timing of their retirements.

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