2018 Michigan State House Races

Last updated October 27, 2018.

Cross-posted at The Western Right, Right Michigan, and RRH Elections.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans won a 63-47 majority in 2016, the same margin as in 2014. There are 42 open seats, 25 held by Republicans and 17 held by democrats. There are 23 open due to term-limits, 18 just due to seeking another office, and 1 pure retirement.

Democrats are hoping to take control of the state house. They may benefit from anti-Trump enthusiasm.  Libertarians achieved major party status due to Gary Johnson's showing in 2016, which led to more Libertarian candidates.  The elimination of straight ticket voting may help Republicans in downballot races.

Conservatives did reasonably well in 2018 primaries.  Conservative Lee Chatfield is the presumptive next house GOP leader.

Republican Michigander has a profile of the Michigan state house focusing more on district demographics.





The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012, 2014, and 2016 state house results, 2012 Romney %, 2016 Trump % (if known), and political rating.  The complete candidate list is available here:

https://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/candlist/2018GEN_CANDLIST.html

Lessons from the 2018 Primary Elections

What can we learn from the 2018 primary elections? This article explains what the winning candidates had in common. I wrote similar articles in 2014 and 2016.

They don't call it the establishment for nothing Establishment candidates won virtually all state senate races and most state house races. They have the inside track on fundraising, endorsements, and organization.

The moderate wing of the party was hammered, with David Maturen losing renomination, and Kathy Crawford narrowly surviving.  Daniela Garcia, Dave Pagel, Brett Roberts, Mike Callton, and Joe Haveman lost state senate primaries.  Only Chris Afendoulis and Mike McCready won primaries, advancing to competitive generals.

Some solid conservatives won primaries (Jim Runestad, Lana Theis, Tom Barrett), while others lost (Bob Genetski, Gary Glenn, and Ray Franz).  The most common winners were mainstream conservatives like Pete Lucido, Ruth Johnson, John Bizon, Kim LaSata, Aric Nesbitt, Roger Victory, Rick Outman, Jon Bumstead, and Curt VanderWall.  A similar pattern held in for state house nominations.

Experience counts Elected experience is valuable for winning candidates. All of the Republican state senate nominees were previously state representatives. State house winners Doug Tietz, Sarah Lightner, and Christine Barnes have all been elected to county commissions.

Incumbency Matters All but one incumbent Republican won renomination. Beating an incumbent in a primary is very hard. The one exception this year is Matt Hall, who spent more than 200K of his own money to defeat David Maturen.  The only other conservative challengers who beat a Republican incumbent in recent years are Tim Walberg in 2006 and Lee Chatfield in 2014. Certainly many incumbents deserve primary challenges, but conservatives have limited resources. Winning an open seat is much easier than beating an incumbent. Politicians can still be held to account when they run for other offices, as with the moderates listed above.  There are still some benefits to primary challenges, though, as they may encourage the incumbent to vote better for awhile and may help the challenger to win an open seat later.

If at first you don't succeed  David Wolkinson and Gary Eisen both finished second in 2012 state house primaries.  This time, they won their primaries.  Matt Maddock lost a close primary for state senate in 2014, but won a big victory for state house this time.  Candidates who lost this time should look for opportunities to run again in the future.

Build a brand  David Wolkinson, Doug Tietz, Matt Maddock, Matt Hall, and Annette Glenn are known across Michigan for advocating conservative causes.  This can provide a larger fundraising base to tap when you run for office.

Don't split the vote Conservatives did much better this year than in past years. Senate district 12 is one example where a conservative candidate likely lost due to vote splitting. Conservatives may have benefited from splits in the establishment in senate districts 30 and house districts 40 and 81.

Money doesn't buy elections  Self-funding candidates have a bad electoral track record.  Shri Thanedar, Jim Himes, Sandy Pensler all self-funded statewide bids and lost.  Self-funder Lena Epstein did win the nomination in MI-11.

Money is essential Money does not guarantee victory, but it is essential to get your message out. This is particularly true in local elections, which are often decided by name recognition. Look at how much winning conservative candidates raised.
Wolkinson 69K
Tietz 67K
Maddock 98K
Hall 209K
Meerman 30K
Glenn 52K

The candidate who raised the most money won in 13 of 21 contested primaries in open Republican seats (fewer than in past cycles). I have written before that the minimum amount needed to be a credible candidate is $30,000. Only five winners raised less than 30K this cycle, two in races where no candidate did.  All but one winner raised at least 15K.

Exceptions are exceptional The only Republican with bad fundraising to win nomination is Gary Eisen, a firearms instructor who raised only 3K.  He had finished second in 2012, and apparently had built some support from that run.  He joins Steven Johnson (2016) and Aaron Miller (2014) as candidates who beat the odds despite poor fundraising. So it is possible for a candidate who works hard to catch on with voters without the usual advantages. But it definitely isn't the way to bet, and it shouldn't be an excuse to ignore the usual path to victory.

2018 August Primary Election Results

Governor:
(R) Schuette 51 Calley 25 Colbeck 13 Hines 11
(D) Whitmer 52 El-Sayed 30 Thanedar 18
No surprise. Shri can't buy votes.

Senate
(R) James 55 Pensler 45
Trump's endorsement was key here.

Congress
6 (D) Longjohn 37 Franklin 29 Benac 21 Eichholz 13
9 (D) Levin 52 Lipton 42 Dynasty wins here.
11 (R) Epstein 31 Raczkowski 26 Kowall 18 Kesto 14 Bentivolio 11
11 (D) Stevens 27 Greimel 22 Gupta 21 Saad 19 Skinner 10
13 (Regular) (D) Tlaib 33 Jones 29 Wild 14 Young 12 Conyers 6 Jackson 5
13 (Special) (D) Jones 37 Tlaib 36 Wild 15 Conyers 11
A split black vote allowed Tlaib to win the regular primary, while a smaller candidate field allowed Jones to win the special primary.

State Senate
1 (D) Chang 49 Talabi 27 Progressive wins.
2 (D) Hollier 27 Banks 19 Aiyash 17 The cranks were rejected here.
3 (D) Santana 42 Woronchak 39 Belle 14
4 (D) Bullock 45 Durhal 39
5 (D) Alexander 54 Knezek 46 Huge upset of a white D.
6 (D) Geiss 65 Kosowski 35 More liberal D wins.
8 (R) Lucido 72 Goike 28
9 (D) Wojno 63 Lodovisi 37
10 (R) MacDonald 59 Shallal 27
11 (D) Moss 52 Bailey 21
12 (R) McCready 45 Tedder 44 Whitney 8 Moderate wins due to split conservative vote.
14 (R) Johnson 77 Houston 23
15 (R) Runestad 90 Saari 10 Good.
16 (R) Shirkey 64 Dame 36
18 (D) Irwin 35.6 Deatrick 35.2 Rajendra 26
19 (R) Bizon 59 Callton 41 More conservative R wins.
21 (R) LaSata 55 Pagel 45 Conservative R wins.
22 (R) Theis 75 Marinaro 25 Good.
24 (R) Barrett 70 Roberts 30 Big victory.
26 (R) Nesbitt 52 Genetski 29 Consumers Energy smear campaign wins here.
29 (R) Afendoulis 81 Oesch 19
30 (R) Victory 42 Garcia 26 Haveman 26 DeBoer 6 Good that Garcia lost.
31 (R) Daley 59 Glenn 41 Consumers Energy smear campaign wins here.
...(D) Luczak 53 Jordan 20 Pro-life D wins primary.
32 (D) Phelps 59 Gaudreau 41
33 (R) Outman 72 Alexander 28
34 (R) Bumstead 52 Hughes 48 Hughes' big spending didn't save her.
...(D) Sias-Hernandez 54 LaMonte 46 Big upset of preferred D candidate.
35 (R) VanderWall 49 Rendon 24 Franz 23 Younger candidate beats two former reps.
37 (R) Schmidt 80 Gurr 20
38 (R) McBroom 69 Carey 31

Primary Recommendations for Michigan State House

Every seat in the Michigan state house is up for election in 2018, and many seats are open due to term limits.  The house has been run by its more conservative wing for the past four years.  Continuing this trend will depend on conservatives winning primaries in August.  Here are my recommendations for who to support in Republican primaries.  Some races are hard evaluate, so additional information from readers is welcome.

Recommended candidates are in bold.

36. Strangely, none of the three major candidates here have an issue page.  However, Dr. Karen Potchynok-Lund, wife of conservative former rep Pete Lund, is solely endorsed by Right to Life.
38. Moderate incumbent Kathy Crawford has voted to increase gas taxes, support hollywood subsidies and FoxConn subsidies, against electric choice, against an income tax cut, against constitutional carry, against cutting auto insurance rates, and against reforming civil asset forfeiture.  Chase Turner is running on a conservative platform and is endorsed by Pat Colbeck.
39. Assistant prosecutor Marsha Kosmatka is running on a conservative platform and is solely endorsed by Right to Life and Citizens for Traditional Values.  Ryan Berman and Kevin Tatulyan also have decent platforms.
40. Lawyer/businessman David Wolkinson has a fairly conservative platform.  CPA Paul Taros is a Tea Party activist who may not be the best fit for a moderate district. Mike Banerian and Malissa Bossardet have fairly generic platforms.  Joe Zane has made many democrat donations.
41. Oakland County Commissioner Doug Tietz is a good conservative who was campaign manager for the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative in 2006.
43. Independence Township Trustee Jose Aliaga is a solid conservative who has an Aq rating from the NRA, while his opponents both got C from the NRA.
44. Businessman Matt Maddock is a conservative leader in Oakland County.  He is solely endorsed by Right to Life.
51. Mike Mueller is the establishment favorite, but his positions are unimpressive.  County commissioner Drew Shaprio has a history of run-ins with the police and no issues page on his website.  Trump delegate Ian Shetron has a conservative platform.
63. Moderate incumbent David Maturen is pro-abortion, has a D rating from the NRA, and voted for gas tax increases and against income tax cuts.  He is being challenged by conservative activist Matt Hall (a third candidate dropped out).
65. Jackson County Commissioner Sarah Lightner is solely endorsed by Right to Life and has an Aq rating from NRA.
71. County Commissioner Christine Barnes seems to be more conservative than businessman Chuck Cascarilla, but the difference isn't huge.
72. State rep. Steven Johnson has been one of the best conservatives in the house since his election in 2016.  He is endorsed by Right to Life, NRA, Pat Colbeck, and Bob Genetski.  He is being challenged by moderate Jennifer Antel.
73. Most establishment support has gone to Lynn Afendoulis, cousin of the moderate incumbent.  A better choice is Robert Regan, who is endorsed by the NRA, state senator Pat Colbeck, and state reps Dave Agema and Steve Johnson.
77. State rep Tommy Brann has been an average conservative in office.  He is being challenged by Daniel Oesch.
78. Niles city councilman David Mann is running on a conservative platform and is solely endorsed by Right to Life and conservative state rep Steve Johnson.
79. The candidate websites don't show a clear distinction.  Pauline Wendzel is endorsed by local conservative activist David Yardley.
81. Kenneth Nicholl and Eric Stocker have raised the most, but have generic platforms.  Joel Williams and Gary Eisen have more conservative platforms.
84. There doesn't seem to be a clear distinction between county commissioner Matthew Bierlein, Phil Green, son of conservative state senator Mike Green, and businessman Dean Smith.
88. Luke Meerman is solely endorsed by Right to Life, as well as by conservative former state rep. Tom Hooker.
90. Ottawa County Treasurer Bradley Slagh has most establishment support and is solely endorsed by Right to Life.  Orlando Estrada is a conservative alternative.
91. Greg VanWoerkem, a staffer for Bill Huizenga, has most establishment support and is solely endorsed by Right to Life.  However, former county commissioner Alan Jager has a higher NRA rating.
93. County Commissioner Anne Hill is running on a solidly conservative platform.
94. Saginaw Township Treasurer Steven Gerhardt is solely endorsed by Right to Life and is the most conservative candidate.
98. Annette Glenn is the wife of staunch conservative state rep. Gary Glenn.  She is solely endorsed by Right to Life and seems to be the only candidate running a serious campaign.
101. Radio host Jack O'Malley seems to be running the most serious campaign.  Carolyn Cater is runnning as a more conservative alternative.
102. State rep. Michelle Hoitenga has been one of the best conservatives in the house since her election in 2016.  She is being challenged from the left by William Barnett.
107. State rep. Lee Chatfield is a solid conservative who is in line to be the next Republican leader in the house.  He faces an unserious primary opponent.
110. Doctor and school board member Kirk Schott is solely endorsed by Right to Life and seems to be running the most serious campaign.

July 2018 Michigan State House Fundraising

July 27 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Here are summaries of the total amount raised in competitive Michigan state house districts.  Totals include in-kind contributions, and for Republicans, late contributions.  Candidates who filed reporting waivers are generally omitted.

2. (D) Tate 40K, Tinsley-Smith 16K, Bell 4K
4. (D) Razo 58K, Oberholtzer 48K, Friedrichs 38K, Nolish 26K, Almasmari 18K, Rob 7K, Jones 5K, Little 2K
5. (D) Johnson 23K, Payne 9K
6. (D) Edevbie 89K, Defoe 53K, Choske 36K, White 35K, Wilson 25K, Carter 24K, Magdeleno 7K, Humphries 3K
9. (D) Whitsett 21K, Stuckey 6K
11. (D) Walker 31K, Jones 29K
12. (D) Garza 42K, Taylor 6K
16. (D) B. Johnson 75K, McDermott 35K, Coleman 14K
17. (R) Bellino 120K, (D) LaVoy 34K
19. (R) Meakin 33K (D) Centers 69K, Pohutski 13K
20. (R) Noble 71K (D) Koleszar 46K
23. (R) Frazier 2K (D) Camilleri 178K
25. (R) Early 3K (D) Shannon 19K
28. (D) Green 49K, Stone 3K
29. (D) Carter 23K, Jackson 13K, Payton 11K
30. (R) Farrington 90K (D) Naoum 66K
35. (D) Reiter 68K, Bolden 37K, Gregory 22K, Meyers 7K
36. (R) Czasak 24K, Lund 57K, Wozniak 19K
38. (R) Crawford 53K, Turner 14K
(D) Bagchi 41K, Breen 16K, Petrillo 5K
39. (R) Berman 38K, Hoyt 4K, Kosmatka 68K, Tatulyan 18K (D) Suidan 30K
40. (R) Banerian 42K, Bossardet 48K, Secrest 6K, Taros 59K, Wolkinson 69K, Zane 37K
(D) Manoogian 92K, Bedi 67K
41. (R) Baker 66K, Tietz 67K (D) Kuppa 88K
42. (R) Bollin 49K (D) Shand 29K
43. (R) Aliaga 35K, Bartolotta 17K, Schroeder 37K (D) Breadon 5K
44. (R) Maddock 98K, Marko 21K, O'Brien 15K (D) Dodd 17K
48. (D) Kennedy 38K, Tiffany 4K, Gunnels 3K
49. (D) Cherry 56K, Walling 35K, Darisaw 6K
51. (R) Anderton 6K, Mueller 42K, Shapiro 23K, Shetron 11K (D) Lossing 30K
55. (D) Warren 103K, McNally 1K
56. (R) Sheppard 68K (D) Whiteside 4K
57. (R) Kahle 96K (D) Pedersen 4K
61. (R) Iden 135K (D) Whitener 14K, Griffin 14K
62. (R) Morgan 32K (D) Haadsma 39K
63. (R) Maturen 76K, Hall 209K
64. (R) Alexander 78K (D) Troxel 19K
65. (R) Brittain 31K, Lightner 30K, Rice 8K (D) McKinnon 11K
66. (R) Griffin 102K (D) Seibert 16K
67. (R) Clark 16K (D) Hope 49K, Findlay 4K, Domann 1K
68. (D) DeWeese 78K, Anthony 67K, Collison 17K, Bradley 6K, Anderson 2K, Guins 1K
69. (D) Brixie 101K, Tsernoglou 81K, Banas 37K
71. (R) Barnes 31K, Cascarilla 59K, Stewart 18K
(D) Witwer 68K, Bowen 14K
72. (R) Johnson 62K, Antel 15K (D) Draayer 27K
73. (R) Afendoulis 90K, Fortier 53K, Regan 14K, Spencer 9K (D) Saxton 13K
76. (R) Brand 34K (D) Hood 70K
77. (R) Brann 91K (D) VanKirk 14K
78. (R) Hinkle 2K, Mann 34K, Paquette 17K, Priede 10K (D) Hill 6K
79. (R) Gorenflo 7K, Moen 20K, Rolling 13K, Wendzel 52K (D) Andrews 12K
81. (R) Eisen 3K, Nicholl 24K, Pratt 5K, Stocker 12K, Williams 4K
84. (R) Bierlein 13K, Green 15K, Smith 28K
85. (R) Frederick 94K (D) Sabin 8K
88. (R) Bosch 4K, Meerman 30K, Minier 9K
90. (R) Estrada 4K, Slagh 30K
91. (R) Jager 7K, VanWoerkem 91K (D) Cabala 46K
93. (R) Anderson 48K, Filler 62K, Hill 25K (D) Levey 8K
94. (R) Gerhardt 52K, Wakeman 34K (D) Adams 12K
98. (R) Glenn 52K (D) Schulz 60K
99. (R) Hauck 140K (D) Quast-Lents 33K, Brown 23K, Doyle 1K
101. (R) O'Malley 28K (D) Wiejaczka 52K, Hoogterp 4K
102. (R) Hoitenga 75K, Barnett 34K
104. (R) Inman 74K (D) Oneil 107K
106. (R) Allor 213K (D) Greene 20K
107. (R) Chatfield 261K (D) Galloway 17K
110. (R) LaCosse $232, Markkanen 3K, Schott 9K (D) Summers 69K

July 2018 Michigan State Senate Fundraising

July 27 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Here are summaries of the total amount raised in Michigan state senate districts.  Totals include in-kind and late contributions.

1. (D) Chang 147K Scott XX Talabi 10K
2. (D) Banks 157K Hollier 121K Aiyash 106K Miah 10K Gannon 9K Cushingberry 8K Lemmons waiver Olumba waiver
3. (D) Santana 113K Woronchak 117K
4. (D) Bullock 56K Durhal 100K
5. (D) Knezek 253K
6. (D) Kosowski 107K Geiss 74K
7. (R) Cox 162K (D) Qadir 117K Polehanki 69K
8. (R) Lucido 147K Goike 41K
9. (D) Wojno 169K
10. (R) Shallal 47K MacDonald 21K (D) Yanez 126K
11. (D) J. Moss 90K
12. (R) Tedder 165K McCready 138K (D) Bayer 68K
13. (R) Knollenberg 252K (D) McMorrow 161K
14. (R) Johnson 56K
15. (R) Runestad 212K (D) Pulver 53K
16. (R) Shirkey 180K Dame 24K
17. (R) Zorn 254K (D) LaVoy 17K
18. (D) Irwin 158K Deatrick 224K Rajendra 153K
19. (R) Callton 265K Bizon 264K
20. (R) O'Brien 371K (D) McCann 137K
21. (R) LaSata 114K Pagel 116K
22. (R) Theis 122K
23. (D) Hertel 281K
24. (R) Barrett 227K Roberts 139K (D) Rossman-McKinney 313K
25. (R) Lauwers 76K
26. (R) Genetski 201K Nesbitt 213K Wickstra 140K (D) Lewis 29K
27. (D) Ananich 253K
28. (R) MacGregor 255K
29. (R) Afendoulis 427K (D) Brinks 289K
30. (R) Garcia 259K Haveman 97K Victory 237K DeBoer 10K
31. (R) Glenn 243K Daley 118K (D) Luczak 30K Jordan 24K
32. (R) Horn 270K (D) Phelps 36K Gaudreau 12K
33. (R) Outman 65K
34. (R) Bumstead 184K Hughes 1.1M (D) Lamonte 29K Sias-Hernandez 53K
35. (R) Franz 52K Rendon 102K VanderWall 126K
36. (R) Stamas 324K
37. (R) Schmidt 386K Gurr 7K
38. (R) McBroom 128K Carey 129K (D) Dianda 179K

David Maturen's Liberal Record

David Maturen is a Republican state representative representing district 63 (eastern Kalamazoo and southern Calhoun counties).  He has held the seat since 2014, after spending 12 years on the Kalamazoo County Commission.  Maturen is one of the most liberal Republicans in the state house.

He voted to increase the state gas tax, motor fuel tax, and registration fees.

He voted to increase regulations on auto repairs.

He voted against electric choice.

He was one of only 12 house Republicans to vote against an income tax cut.

He was one of only 7 house Republicans to vote against constitutional carry.

He voted for corporate welfare for FoxConn.

He voted against a bill to cut auto insurance rates.

He voted against making English the official language of Michigan.

He voted against requiring a conviction before civil asset forfeiture.

Maturen is not pro-gun and has a D rating from the NRA.

Maturen is pro-abortion and has never been endorsed by Right to Life.

There is a better choice.  Matt Hall is right on the issues where Maturen is wrong.  (The third candidate in the race recently dropped out and endorsed Hall.)  Matt Hall is the clear choice for conservatives.

NRA Endorsements

The National Rifle Association has just issued its endorsements for the 2018 primary.  They give grades to candidates who have voting records or fill out their survey.  They endorse most acceptable incumbents and endorse in some open seats.  Endorsed candidates are in bold.  (Aq means a candidate got an A from the questionnaire only, and doesn't have a voting record.)

Governor:  No endorsement.  Schuette got A+, Calley and Colbeck got A, Hines got Aq.
US Senate:  No endorsement.  John James and Sandy Pensler both got Aq.

Congress:
8. Bishop A endorsed.
11. All five Republican candidates got A or Aq.

State Senate:
6. (D) Kosowski B, Geiss F
8. Lucido A+, Goike A
10. All three got Aq.
12. Tedder A, McCready D
14. Apparently nobody filled out the questionnaire.
15. Jim Runestad A+
16. Mike Shirkey A+
19. Bizon B+, Callton A.
21. LaSata A, Pagel C.
22. Lana Theis A+
24. Barrett and Roberts both got A.
26. Nesbitt and Genetski both got A.
29. Chris Afendoulis got C+.
30. Victory, Garcia got A, DeBoer Aq, Haveman B+.
31. Gary Glenn A+, Daley A-.
32. (D) Phelps A, Gaudreau F
33. Rick Outman A
34. Bumstead, Hughes both got A.
35. Franz, Vanderwall, and Rendon all got A.
37. Schmidt A+, Gurr Aq.
38. McBroom A, Carey Aq.

Michigan Right to Life Endorsements

Michigan Right to Life has just issued its endorsements for the 2018 primary.  RTL swings a significant number of Michigan primary voters, so its endorsements will decide some races.

RTL will recommend all candidates if they are all pro-life, but if there is a serious non-pro-life candidate, they will pick one pro-life candidate to endorse.  Their noteworthy endorsements are listed below.

Governor:  All Republican candidates meet criteria.
US Senate: John James solely endorsed.  Sandy Pensler is not endorsed.

Congress:
All Republican incumbents are endorsed except for Fred Upton.  Notably, Upton was endorsed in 2012, 2014, and 2016 despite a past pro-abortion record.
9. Candius Stearns
11. All five Republican candidates are endorsed.

State Senate: All Republican incumbents are endorsed.
8. Both Lucido and Goike
10. All are endorsed
12. McCready and Tedder are endorsed (not Molnar or Whitney).
14. No endorsement of Ruth Johnson.
15. Jim Runestad solely endorsed.
19. Both Bizon and Callton are endorsed.
21. Both LaSata and Pagel are endorsed.
22. Lana Theis solely endorsed.
24. Both Barrett and Roberts are endorsed.  Roberts has not been endorsed in past cycles.
26. Nesbitt, Genetski, and Wickstra all endorsed.
29. Chris Afendoulis solely endorsed.
30. Victory, Garcia, DeBoer, Haveman all endorsed.
31. Glenn and Daley both endorsed. Luczak (D) solely endorsed.
33. Rick Outman solely endorsed.
34. Bumstead and Hughes both endorsed.
35. Franz, Vanderwall, and Rendon endorsed (not Urka).
38. Carey, McBroom both endorsed.

State House:  All Republican incumbents are endorsed except one.
10. (D) Ronda Barley
36. Karen Lund-Potchynok solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
39. Marsha Kosmatka solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
40. Five endorsed (all but Secrest).
41. Baker and Tietz endorsed (not Dwyer).
43. Andrea Schroeder solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
44. Matt Maddock solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
51. Mike Mueller solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
63. No endorsement for incumbent Dave Maturen or challengers Matt Hall or Paul Foust.
65. Sarah Lightner solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
67. Both endorsed
71. All four endorsed
73. All four endorsed
78. David Mann solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
79. Four endorsed (all but DeMeulenaere).
81. Kenneth Nicholl solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
84. All three endorsed
88. Luke Meerman solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
90. Bradley Slagh endorsed over Orlando Estrada.
91. Greg VanWoerkom endorsed over Alan Jager.
93. All three endorsed
94. Steven Gerhardt solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?
98. Annette Glenn solely endorsed.
101. Both endorsed
110. Kirk Schott solely endorsed.  Who is not pro-life here?

Michigan AG: Comparing Leonard and Schuitmaker

The race for the Republican nomination for Attorney General will be decided at the Michigan Republican Convention on August 25 in Lansing.  Two candidates are competing for the nomination.  Tom Leonard was a prosecutor who was elected to the Michigan state house in 2012 and became speaker in 2016.  Tonya Schuitmaker is a lawyer, state representative (2004-2010) and state senator (2010-2018).

Republican delegates who want to nominate the right person need to know the records of the two candidates.  Both have voting records, which can be researched at MichiganVotes.org.  The following summarizes their records on issues of importance to conservatives.

Gas Tax Increase  Both Leonard and Tonya opposed Proposal 1, which would have increased taxes by 2 billion dollars to pay for roads and other transportation projects.  Leonard and Tonya both supported a smaller gas tax increase for roads.

Amazon Tax  Leonard opposed the 'Amazon Tax' to force consumers to pay sales tax on out-of-state internet purchases.  Tonya supported this tax increase.

Income Tax Cut  Leonard supported and led an effort to cut the state income tax, which narrowly failed in the state house.  The state senate did not vote on the bill.

Medicaid Expansion  Both Leonard and Tonya opposed Medicaid expansion, which was part of the implementation of Obamacare.

Pension Reform  Both Leonard and Tonya supported reforming school employee pensions.  Leonard led the effort to make sure that the bill passed.

Business Subsidies  The Mackinac Center recently released an index to rate how often a legislator has voted to support taxpayer supported business subsidies.  Leonard supported 70.1% of subsidies, while Tonya supported 76.9% of subsidies.

Hollywood Subsidies  Both Leonard and Tonya voted to end subsidies for Hollywood movie studios.

FoxConn Subsidies  Leonard opposed subsidies for FoxConn, a Taiwanese company.  Tonya supported the subsidies.

Electric Choice  Leonard and Tonya both voted for a bill to impose more regulation on electricity generation and limit choice of electricity providers.

Auto Insurance  Leonard supported a bill to reform auto insurance to provide more choices and reduce rates.  The bill failed in the state house and was not taken up in the state senate.

Speed Limits  Both Leonard and Tonya voted for a small increase in freeway speed limits.

Common Core  Leonard opposed the implementation of Common Core education standards.  The state senate passed Common Core with an (unrecorded) voice vote, but Tonya indicated her support for Common Core.  Neither chamber has voted on Common Core repeal legislation this session.

Constitutional Carry  Leonard voted for constitutional carry, and made sure the bill was voted on as speaker.  The state senate has not taken up the bill.

Official English  Leonard supported making English the official language of Michigan.  Tonya was one of only two Republicans to oppose official English in 2006.

2018 Kalamazoo County Commission Races

This post was last updated August 20, 2018.

Democrats won a 6-5 majorities on the Kalamazoo County Commission in 2014 and 2016, which were generally good years for Republicans.  There were three open seats on 2016, and there is one (district 2) this year.

The following post has detailed descriptions of the districts and their political leanings. The numbers given are the percentage the Republican county commission candidate got in 2012, 2014 and 2016, and Ruth Johnson's (2010), Mitt Romney (2012) and Donald Trump (2016) percentages.  Incumbents are marked below with asterisks.

Kalamazoo County Commission Districts.


List of Kalamazoo County Candidates

District 1 [N Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
R12: 13.9 R14: 0 R16: 19 Johnson: 20.3 Romney: 13.5 Trump: 14.9
Democrat: Stephanie Moore*
Republican: Ronald Olson
Stephanie Moore replaced Carolyn Alford in 2014 in this majority minority district.  Moore was a Kalamazoo city commissioner and has been convicted of several crimes over the years.  She allied with Republicans to make Dale Shugars the board chairman for one year and became chair for 2018 herself.

District 2 [SE Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
R12: 0 R14: 29.5 R16: 27.5 Johnson: 33.4 Romney: 28.1 Trump: 25.1
Democrat: Paul Haag
Republican: none
Incumbent Kevin Wordelman, a union organizer at WMU, won this seat vacated by David Buskirk in 2014.  He is retiring this year.

District 3 [SW Kalamazoo] Safe Democrat
R12: 31.1 R14: 32.3 R16: 29.7 Johnson: 37.2 Romney: 30.1 Trump: 28
Democrat: Tracy Hall*
Republican: Charley Coss
Hall was elected in 2016, replacing John Taylor.  Hall was previously a candidate for Kalamazoo city commission in 2013.  Coss is running again after losing in 2016.

District 4 [Kalamazoo Twp, Parchment] Safe Democrat
R12: 32.2 R14: 0 R16: 0 Johnson: 41.8 Romney: 31.7 Trump: 30
Democrat: Michael Seals*, Shequita Lewis
Republican: none
Seals defeated fellow democrat commissioner (02-10) Franklin Thompson in 2010.  This year, he barely survived a primary challenge from Shequita Lewis, who was backed by Stephanie Moore.

District 5 [Alamo, N Oshtemo, NW Kalamazoo Twp] Safe Democrat
R12: 44.3 R14: 44.7 R16: 43.7 Johnson: 56.9 Romney: 47.2 Trump: 45.8
Democrat: Julie Rogers*
Republican: Chad Dillon
Rogers won this competiive seat in 2012.  Dillon, a staffer for Congressman Fred Upton, is running again.

District 6 [Cooper, Richland, Ross] Safe Republican
R12: 54 R14: 100 R16: 77 Johnson: 62.9 Romney: 54.7 Trump: 56.4
Democrat: none
Republican: Ron Kendall*
Kendall, a staffer for state rep. Tom Barrett (14-P) of Eaton County, succeeded Jeff Heppler in 2016.  He beat Vince Carahaly, a moderate businessman, and Frank Brooks, a passionate Trump supporter, 39-35-26 in the primary.

District 7 [Comstock, Galesburg, Charleston, Climax, Wakeshma] Safe Republican
R12: 50.9 R14: 54.9 R16: 56.8 Johnson: 59.3 Romney: 50.6 Trump: 56.7
Democrat: none
Republican: Roger Tuinier*
Tuinier, who is a greenhouse owner, barely defeated Leroy Crabtree in 2012.  He beat David Burgess, a Comstock Township Trustee, in 2014, and Pat Clark, a Climax Village Trustee, in 2016.

District 8 [Pavillion, Brady, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] Safe Republican
R12: 100 R14: 61 R16: 100 Johnson: 63.5 Romney: 55.1 Trump: 60
Democrat: Cody Dekker
Republican: John Gisler*, Kraig Lee
Commissioner John Gisler was elected in 2010 but deferred to fellow commissioner (02-12) David Maturen in the 2012 Republican primary due to redistricting.  Gisler returned in 2014 when Maturen was elected to the state house.  Gisler defeated Kraig Lee, a union democrat in disguise, in the primary this year.

District 9 [Texas, SE Oshtemo] Likely Republican
R12: 53.9 R14: 61.3 R16: 54.6 Johnson: 62.5 Romney: 51.7 Trump: 47.6
Democrat: Christine Morse
Republican: Dale Shugars*
Shugars, a conservative former state senator (94-02) and state rep (90-94), was elected to the commission in 2014, succeeding Brandt Iden.  He was board chairman in 2017 thanks to a deal with democrat Stephanie Moore.

District 10 [W Portage] Lean democrat
R12: 52.8 R14: 49.6 R16: 49.8 Johnson: 58.8 Romney: 49.4 Trump: 45.2
Democrat: Michael Quinn*
Republican: Steve Carra, Nasim Ansari
Quinn was a commissioner 2008-2010.  Following R Phil Stinchcomb (10-12) and D Larry Provancher (95-02, 14-16), Quinn returned.  Carra, a staffer for state rep Steven Johnson (16-P) of Allegan County and secretary of the Kalamazoo GOP, defeated Ansari, a county commissioner (02-12) and Portage city commissioner (13-17) who lost a race for mayor of Portage in 2017, in the primary.

District 11 [E Portage] Tossup
R12: 52.5 R14: 54.2 R16: 52.5 Johnson: 56.5 Romney: 47.5 Trump: 46.9
Democrat: Meredith Place
Republican: Scott McGraw*
McGraw succeed John Zull (00-14).  McGraw formerly worked for the Kalamazoo Homebuilders Association and is now Chairman of the Kalamazoo GOP.  Place is the wife of former commissioner (02-16) and democrat party chairman John Taylor.

Primary Recommendations for Michigan State Senate

Every seat in the Michigan state senate is up for election in 2018, and the majority of seats are open due to term limits.  The senate has been run by more moderate Republicans, who have obstructed more conservative legislation passed in the state house.  How conservative the senate is for the next four years will be determined by Republican primaries in August.  Here are my recommendations for who to support in those primaries.

Recommended candidates are in bold.  Their voting records can be found at MichiganVotes.org.

7. State rep Laura Cox is an establishment conservative who is a strong candidate in a vulnerable district.  She is unopposed.
8. State rep Peter Lucido is a mixed bag who opposed Proposal 1 and an increased gas tax but also opposed right to work and electric choice and supported Hollywood subsidies.  He faces former state rep Ken Goike, who opposed right to work, Common Core, Medicaid expansion, Proposal 1, and Hollywood subsidies, and supported a gas tax increase and electric choice.
10. Dr. Michael MacDonald seems to be the most credible candidate in a weak field.  Michael Shallal has a history of questionable statements, and Joseph Bogdan is running a gadfly campaign.
12. State rep Jim Tedder is more conservative than average in the state house, opposing Hollywood subsidies and supporting an income tax cut, constitutional carry, and pension reform.  He faces moderate state rep Michael McCready, who supported Common Core, Medicaid expansion, Proposal 1, Hollywood subsidies and opposed an income tax cut, constitutional carry and pension reform.  Vernon Molnar and Terry Whitney are also running.
14. Secretary of State Ruth Johnson has a solid conservative record in office.  She faces Katherine Houston in her bid to move down to the state senate.
15. State rep Jim Runestad is a conservative hero who voted against Proposal 1 and an increased gas tax.  Runestad has fundraised very well, and moderate former state rep Hugh Crawford dropped out of the race to seek reelection to the Oakland County Commission.  Michael Saari unofficially dropped out of the race after making inflammatory comments, but remains on the ballot.
19. State rep Dr. John Bizon has a somewhat moderate record, yet he opposed Hollywood subsidies and FoxConn subsidies and supported electric choice.  Former state rep Mike Callton has a liberal record, supporting Hollywood subsidies and opposing electric choice.  Significantly, Callton represented a safely Republican district, while Bizon represents the most democratic district held by a Republican.  Thus there is a chance that Bizon would vote more conservative in a safer district, while we have no reason to expect any better from Callton.
21. State rep Kim LaSata is an average conservative, supporting an income tax cut, constitutional carry, and pension reform.  She faces state rep Dave Pagel, who is one of the most liberal republicans in the state house, having supported Common Core, Medicaid expansion, and Proposal 1 and opposed electric choice, an income tax cut, constitutional carry, and pension reform.
22. State rep Lana Theis is a conservative star who opposed Proposal 1 and the gas tax increase.  She faces Joseph Converse Marinaro, who is running a gadfly campaign.
24. State rep Tom Barrett is a solid conservative who supported electric choice, an income tax cut, pension reform, and auto insurance reform, and opposed FoxConn subsidies.  He faces state rep Brett Roberts, who opposed electric choice, an income tax cut, pension reform, and auto insurance reform, and supported FoxConn subsidies.  Roberts has never been endorsed by Right to Life and represents only a small part of the district.
25. State rep Dan Lauwers, an average Republican, is unopposed for this seat.
26. State rep Bob Genetski is a solid conservative who was regularly rated most conservative in the state house.  He faces state rep Aric Nesbitt, an average Republican who supported Common Core and opposed electric choice.
29. State rep Chris Afendoulis has a moderate voting record, but is the only candidate running a serious campaign in a very vulnerable district.  Daniel Oesch has filed a reporting waiver.
30. This is traditionally the most Republican district in Michigan, but it has a history of electing relative moderates.  Three state reps are competing here.  Daniela Garcia has a very moderate record, opposing electric choice, an income tax cut, and auto insurance reform.  Her predecessor, Joe Haveman, is little better, voting for Medicaid expansion and Proposal 1.  Roger Victory is a more average Republican, who voted against Medicaid expansion and electric choice and for Proposal 1, an income tax cut, and auto insurance reform.  A better choice is conservative activist Rett DeBoer, who has volunteered for President Trump and Pat Colbeck.
31. State rep Gary Glenn is a conservative hero in the state house, opposing Proposal 1 and the gas tax and supporting electric choice.  He faces state rep Kevin Daley, who supported Proposal 1.
33. Former state rep Rick Outman is an average Republican who supported Common Core and Proposal 1 and opposed Medicaid expansion and electric choice.  He faces former state house candidate Greg Alexander.
34. State rep John Bumstead is somewhat more conservative here, voting against Common Core, Medicaid expansion, Proposal 1, and for increased speed limits and electric choice.  He faces state rep Holly Hughes, who opposed increased speed limits and electric choice.
35. State rep Ray Franz is a solid conservative who opposed Proposal 1.  He faces average Republican state rep Bruce Rendon, who supported Proposal 1, and state rep Curt VanderWall, who supported FoxConn subsidies.
37. Teacher Jim Gurr is running an uphill primary challenge to state senator Wayne Schmidt, who supported Proposal 1, Common Core, Medicaid expansion, the Amazon tax, increased gas tax, and FoxConn subsidies and opposed electric choice.  He also introduced legislation to legalize red light cameras.
38. State rep Ed McBroom is somewhat moderate, but has weak fundraising so far.  Mike Carey is a moderate with significant self-funding.  This district is vulnerable, as moderate democrat state rep Scott Dianda is running.

The Michigan state senate currently has two solid conservatives (Pat Colbeck and Joe Hune). This year, two (Runestad and Theis) are near certain to win, and four others (Barrett, Genetski, Glenn, and Franz) have decent chances to win.  Conservative donor looking to maximize their impact should support those four, and perhaps Tedder, LaSata, and DeBoer.

2018 Michigan State House Races

Last updated August 1, 2018.

Cross-posted at The Western Right, Right Michigan, and RRH Elections.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans won a 63-47 majority in 2016, the same margin as in 2014. There are 42 open seats, 25 held by Republicans and 17 held by democrats. There are 23 open due to term-limits, 18 just due to seeking another office, and 1 pure retirement.

Democrats are hoping to take control of the state house. They may benefit from anti-Trump enthusiasm.  In some seats, the candidate fields have yet to take shape. Libertarians achieved major party status due to Gary Johnson's showing in 2016, which makes it easier for people to run as Libertarians.  Another factor is the fate of the bill eliminating straight ticket voting, which is currently tied up in court.

The last two cycles have seen contests between moderate and conservative factions in the house GOP, won by the conservatives narrowly in 2014 and more decisively in 2016.  This time, the house GOP candidate recruitment is solidly in the hands of conservatives, and conservative Lee Chatfield is the presumptive next house GOP leader.  There are still likely to be some ideological battles, particularly in districts vacated by moderate incumbents.

Republican Michigander has a profile of the Michigan state house focusing more on district demographics.





The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012, 2014, and 2016 state house results, 2012 Romney %, 2016 Trump % (if known), and political rating.  Candidates who filed a reporting waiver, indicating that they will not raise more than $1000 (and hence are not serious) are typically omitted.  The complete candidate list is available here:

http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/candlist/2018PRI_CANDLIST.html

January 2018 Michigan State Senate Fundraising

January 31 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Some races are already well-developed, while in others, candidates have only recently declared or have yet to declare.  Here are summaries of the total amount raised in Michigan state senate districts.  Totals include state house committees for state representatives. Cash on hand is in parentheses when significantly less than the total raised.

3. (D) Santana 91K Woronchak 2K
6. (D) Kosowski 69K Geiss 16K
7. (R) Cox 95K (D) Qadir 98K
8. (R) Lucido 130K
9. (D) Lane 101K Wojno 8K
10. (R) Shallal 36K (D) Yanez 66K
11. (D) Moss 23K (5K)
12. (R) Tedder 73K (36K)
13. (R) Knollenberg 143K (54K)
14. (R) Johnson 35K (21K)
15. (R) Runestad 190K (151K) Crawford 46K (18K)
16. (R) Shirkey 123K
17. (R) Zorn 143K (83K)
18. (D) Irwin 66K Zemke 22K
19. (R) Callton 242K (115K) Bizon 211K
20. (R) O'Brien 213K (147K) McCann 30K
21. (R) Pscholka 65K
22. (R) Theis 80K (51K)
24. (R) Barrett 61K Roberts 25K (7K) (D) Rossman-McKinney 180K (150K)
25. (R) Lauwers 47K
26. (R) Genetski 192K Nesbitt 74K
28. (R) MacGregor 181K (83K)
29. (R) Afendoulis 220K (D) Brinks 139K
30. (R) Garcia 172K Haveman 32K Victory 77K
31. (R) Glenn 115K Daley 61K (D) Luczak 9K
32. (R) Horn 186K (109K)
33. (R) Outman 14K
34. (R) Bumstead 137K (76K) Hughes 806K (300K)
35. (R) Franz 27K Rendon 57K (21K)
36. (R) Stamas 233K (109K)
37. (R) Schmidt 265K (60K)
38. (R) McBroom 27K (11K) (D) Dianda 100K (80K)

October 2017 Michigan State Senate Fundraising

October 25 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Some races are already well-developed, while in others, candidates have only recently declared or have yet to declare.  Here are summaries of the total cash on hand in Michigan state senate districts.  Totals include state house committees for state representatives.  XX means the report has yet to be filed.

6. (D) Kosowski 35K Geiss 6K
7. (R) Cox 88K
8. (R) Lucido 108K
9. (D) Lane 92K Wojno 104K
10. (D) Yanez 54K
11. (D) Moss 26K
12. (R) Tedder 33K
13. (R) Knollenberg 32K
14. (R) Johnson 6K
15. (R) Runestad 129K Crawford 20K
16. (R) Shirkey 103K
17. (R) Zorn 70K
18. (D) Irwin 50K Zemke XX
19. (R) Callton 133K Bizon 222K
20. (R) O'Brien 126K
21. (R) Pscholka 65K
22. (R) Theis 36K
24. (R) Barrett 47K Roberts 3K (D) Rossman-McKinney 114K
25. (R) Lauwers 31K
26. (R) Genetski 174K Nesbitt 74K
28. (R) MacGregor 80K
29. (R) Afendoulis 201K (D) Brinks 100K
30. (R) Garcia 162K Haveman 18K Victory 68K
31. (R) Glenn 73K Daley 46K (D) Luczak 2K
32. (R) Horn 85K
33. (R) Outman 12K
34. (R) Bumstead 73K Hughes 283K
35. (R) Franz 18K Rendon 30K
36. (R) Stamas 105K
37. (R) Schmidt 60K
38. (R) McBroom 11K (D) Dianda 58K

2018 Michigan Congressional Races

Cross-posted at The Western Right, Right Michigan, and Red Racing Horses. This post was last updated on August 20, 2018.

Michigan will see several interesting congressional races in 2018, with one open seat.  Michigan has 14 congressional seats.



There are several articles that analyze the general political leanings of the districts.
Michigan Redistricting: Congressional Map Passed
Republican Michigander Congressional District Profiles (Sidebar at right)

District 1 (Upper Peninsula, Northern Lower Peninsula) Safe Republican.
CD12: 48.1-47.6 CD14: 52-45 CD16: 55-40 McCain: 48.5 Romney: 53.5 Trump 57.9
Following the retirement of Dan Benishek, conservative retired general Jack Bergman defeated moderate state senator Tom Casperson and former senator Jason Allen 39-32-28 in the R primary. He defeated former Michigan democrat chairman Lon Johnson, a liberal who bought a small house in Kalkaska County, in the general. D veteran Matt Morgan was disqualified because he messed up his petitions, but succeeded in getting on the ballot with a write-in campaign.

District 2 (Ottowa, Muskegon) Safe Republican.
CD12: 61-34 CD14: 64-33 CD16: 63-33 McCain: 50.4 Romney: 56 Trump 55.8
Republican former state rep. Bill Huizinga won a close primary in 2010 to replace Pete Hoekstra, and was easily reelected since then. He has generally voted a fairly conservative line. This remains the most Republican district in Michigan.  Robert Davidson is the D nominee.

District 3 (Kent, Calhoun) Safe Republican.
CD12: 52.6-44.1 CD14: 58-39 CD16: 59-37 McCain: 48.6 Romney: 53.1 Trump 51.6
Republican state rep. Justin Amash won the primary to replace moderate Republican Vern Ehlers, in 2010. Amash is a libertarian in the mold of Rep. Ron Paul. He has alienated the establishment in Washington and some Trump supporters.  He defeated moderate businessman Brian Ellis, who had significant self-funding, 57-43 in the 2014 primary.  Cathy Albro beat Fred Wooden for the D nomination.

District 4 (central Michigan) Safe Republican.
CD12: 63-34 CD14: 56-39 CD16: 62-32 McCain: 48.6 Romney: 53.4 Trump 59.5
Republican state senator John Moolenaar of Midland defeated self-funding businessman Paul Mitchell and Tea Partyer Peter Konetchy 52-36-11 in the 2014 primary to replace retiring congressman Dave Camp.  He has won easily since then.  Jerry Hilliard beat Zigmond Kozicki for the D nomination.

District 5 (Genesee, Saginaw, Bay) Safe democrat.
CD12: 31-65 CD14: 31-67 CD16: 35-61 McCain: 35.4 Romney: 38.4 Trump 45.5
Former Genesee Treasurer Dan Kildee succeeded his uncle Dale Kildee in 2012.  Travis Wines is the R candidate.

District 6 (SW Michigan) Safe Republican.
CD12: 55-43 CD14: 56-40 CD16: 59-36 McCain: 45 Romney: 50 Trump 51.3
Moderate Republican Fred Upton has won by wide margins since defeating conservative Mark Siljander in 1986.  Upton defeated Western Michigan University professor Paul Clements in 2014 and 2016.  Clements tried to run again, but was disqualified due to not having enough valid signatures.  Doctor Matt Longjohn beat George Franklin, David Benac, and Rich Eichholz for the D nomination.

District 7 (south-central Michigan) Safe Republican.
CD12: 53-43 CD14: 53-41 CD16: 55-40 McCain: 47.4 Romney: 50.9 Trump 55.7
Republican Tim Walberg defeated liberal democrat Mark Schauer in a hard-fought race in 2010. This followed Schauer's defeat of Walberg in 2008, Walberg's defeat of RINO Joe Schwarz in 2006, and Schwarz's winning a divided Republican primary to replace Nick Smith in 2004. Walberg defeated D state rep (12-16) Gretchen Driskell in 2016.  She won the nomination again in 2018, defeating Steven Friday.

District 8 (Ingham, Livingston, N Oakland) Lean Republican.
CD12: 59-37 CD14: 55-42 CD16: 56-39 McCain: 46.4 Romney: 51.1 Trump 50.6
Former state senator Mike Bishop of NE Oakland beat state rep. Tom McMillin 60-40 in the 2014 Republican primary to replace retiring congressman Mike Rogers.  Bishop defeated Macomb County assistant prosecutor Suzanna Shkreli in 2016.  He defeated Lokesh Kumar in the R primary.  Former DOD official Elissa Slotkin won the D nomination over professor Christopher Smith.

District 9 (S Macomb, Royal Oak, Bloomfield) Safe democrat.
CD12: 34-62 CD14: 36-60 CD16: 37-58 McCain: 40.4 Romney: 41.8 Trump 43.7
Democrat Sander Levin, who has represented this district since 1982, is retiring.  His son Andy Levin defeated progressive state rep Ellen Lipton (08-14) and Martin Brook for the D nomination.  Macomb state sen. (10-18) Steve Beida withdrew at the last minute, depriving Macomb Ds of the chance to elect one of their own.  Businesswoman Candius Stearns is the R candidate.

District 10 (N Macomb, the Thumb) Safe Republican.
CD12: 69-30 CD14: 69-29 CD16: 63-32 McCain: 50 Romney: 55.2 Trump 63.8
Following Candice Miller's retirement, self-funding businessman Paul Mitchell won the R primary 36-28-16.  Mitchell previously lost the Republican primary in district 4 in 2014 and led the fight to defeat proposal 1, a large tax increase. He beat former state rep Frank Accavitti (02-08) in the general.  Kimberly Bizon beat Accavitti and Michael McCarthy are seeking the D nomination.

District 11 (NW Wayne, SW Oakland, Troy) Lean Republican.
CD12: 50.8-44.4 CD14: 56-41 CD16: 53-40 McCain: 48.4 Romney: 52.2 Trump 49.7
Establishment Republican David Trott, who defeated Tea Party Republican Kerry Bentivolio 66-34 in the 2014 Republican primary, has announced his retirement after two terms.  Pro-Trump businesswoman Lena Epstein defeated former state rep (96-02) Rocky Raczkowski, moderate state senator Mike Kowall (10-18), state rep (12-18) Klint Kesto, and Bentivolio for the R nomination.  Businesswoman Haley Stevens defeated State rep Tim Greimel of Auburn Hills, Suneel Gupta, Fayrouz Saad, and Nancy Skinner for the D nomination.  Leonard Schwarz is the Libertarian candidate.

District 12 (Downriver, Ann Arbor) Safe democrat.
CD12: 29-68 CD14: 31-65 CD16: 29-64 McCain: 31.2 Romney: 32.7 Trump 34.5
In 2014, democrat Debbie Dingell easily replaced her husband John Dingell in Congress after his 58 years (!) in office.  Jeff Jones is the R candidate.

District 13 (W Detroit, Westland) Safe democrat.
CD12: 14-82 CD14: 16-80 CD16: 16-77 McCain: 14 Romney: 14 Trump 18
This district has been represented by democrat John Conyers since 1964. Conyers has declined in recent years, winning only 55% in the 2012 primary due to a scandal involving his wife and nearly being disqualified due to having signature gatherers who were not registered to vote in 2014.  In November 2017, Conyers announced his resignation in a sexual harrassment scandal.  He endorsed his 27-year-old son John Conyers III, who failed to make the ballot due to not having enough signatures.

Rep Rashida Tlaib (08-14), a Muslim who lost a state senate race in 2014, defeated Detroit council president Brenda Jones, Westland Mayor William Wild, the only suburban candidate, state sen Coleman Young (10-18), who badly lost a challenge to Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan in 2017, Conyers' grand-nephew, 29-year-old State senator Ian Conyers (16-P), who made the challenge that got his relative kicked off the ballot, and rep Shanelle Jackson (06-12) for the D nomination.  Without Jackson and Young on the ballot, however, Jones won the primary for a special election held on the same day.

District 14 (E Detroit, Southfield, Farmington, Pontiac) Safe democrat.
CD12: 16-82 CD14: 20-78 CD16: 19-79 McCain: 18 Romney: 18 Trump 18
In 2014, Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence defeated state rep. Rudy Hobbs, and former Congressman Hansen Clarke 36-32-31 in the democrat primary for the seat held by Gary Peters, who was elected to the US Senate.  Marc Herschfus is the R candidate.

2017 Kalamazoo Election Preview

This article was last updated November 2, 2017.

Michigan will see several elections in 2017. This is a preview of elections in Kalamazoo County.   The November election will have Kalamazoo and Portage city elections.

May 2: Kalamazoo County rejected a tax increase to fund consolidation of 911 service 37.9% to 62.1%.  A renewal of the KRESA tax that was first passed in 2005 passed with 61.7%.

November 3: This is the day for local city elections.

Kalamazoo City Commission

The mayor and three seats on the Kalamazoo City Commission are up for election. The seven commissioners are Mayor Bobby Hopewell (on since 2003), Don Cooney (1997), David Anderson (2005), Shannon Sykes (2015), Erin Knott (2015), Jack Urban (2013), and Matt Milcarek (2015).

In 2014, Kalamazoo voters passed a charter amendment changing the charter by electing the mayor separately and implementing staggered four-year terms for the other seats (similar to the system Portage uses).  In 2015, Cooney, Anderson, and Sykes got four-year terms, while Knott, Urban, and Milcarek got two-year terms.

Hopewell, who has been mayor since 2007, will run again.  He is a liberal democrat.

Urban and Knott are running for reelection; Milcarek is not.  Eric Cunningham, who was appointed to a commission seat but narrowly lost in 2015, is running again.  Also running are
Charley Coss, former R candidate for county commission
Leona Carter, previous candidate for city commission

Portage City Council

The mayor and three seats on the Portage City Council are up for election. Peter Strazdas, who has been mayor since 2005, is retirng.  The other councilmembers are Terry Urban (2001), Claudette Reid (2005), Patricia Randall (2009), Jim Pearson (2011), Nasim Ansari (2013), and Richard Ford (2013).  In recent years, a divide has developed on the council between two factions.  One faction consists of Strazdas, Reid and Urban.  The other has been Randall, Pearson, Ford, and Ansari.

Councilmember Patricia Randall is running for mayor.  Randall had to resign her position to run for mayor.  Councilmember and former county commissioner (2002-2012) Nasim Ansari is also running.  Ansari is a conservative Republican.

The three seats up for election are held Ansari, Reid, and Urban.  Reid and Urban will both run again.  Nonincumbent candidates are
Jim Stephanak, former Kalamazoo Gazette publisher
Phil Stinchcomb, a conservative former Kalamazoo County Commissioner (2010-14)
Lori Knapp, a lawyer
Tim Earl, fire safety consultant
Chris Burns, accountant
Wayne Stoffer, business consultant, who suspended his campaign

2018 Michigan General Election Races

This post was last updated October 28, 2018.

Michigan's top constitutional offices, congressional seats, and the entire state legislature will be up for election November 2018.

US Senate: Likely democrat
Democrat Senator Debbie Stabenow is seeking reelection.  She won 50-48 in 2000, 57-41 in 2006, and 59-38 in 2012.  She has mediocre approval ratings.

Businessman John James defeated Sandy Pensler for the R nomination.  James appealed more to movement conservatives, and was endorsed by President Trump and Right to Life.  Pensler self-funded and positioned himself as a Trump-friendly businessman.

Governor: Lean democrat
Moderate Republican Governor Rick Snyder is term limited.  Snyder won 58-40 in 2010 and 51-47 in 2014.  Attorney General Bill Schuette, who is fairly conservative, won the R nomination.  He beat Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, conservative state senator Patrick Colbeck, and doctor Jim Hines of Saginaw.

Former state senator Gretchen Whitmer of Ingham County won the D nomination.  She beat businessman Shri Thanedar, who spent 10 million dollars portraying himself as a more progressive alternative, and Detroit health official Abdul Al-Sayed, who was supported by many Bernie Sanders supporters.

Libertarians are now on the primary ballot thanks to the relatively strong showing of Gary Johnson in 2016.  Their voters choose Bill Gelineau over John Tatar.

Attorney General: Tossup
Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette is term limited and running for governor. He won 53-44 in 2010 and 52-44 in 2014.  Both nominees were decided at party conventions.  Republican house speaker Tom Leonard beat state senator Tonya Schuitmaker.  Leonard has a more conservative record and had most grassroots support.

Progressive lesbian attorney Dana Nessel defeated former US attorney Pat Miles for the D nomination.  There has been a lot of turnover in her campaign.

Secretary of State: Lean democrat
Conservative Republican Secretary of State Ruth Johnson is term limited and running for state senate. She defeated democrat Joscelyn Benson 51-45 in 2010 and Godfrey Dillard 54-43 in 2014.  Benson is running again in 2018, and is a strong candidate.

Accountant Mary Treder Lang won the nomination at convention, defeating MSU professor Joseph Guzman.  Shelby Township clerk Stan Grot and moderate state senator Mike Kowall previously dropped out of the race.

Michigan Supreme Court Lean Republican
Republicans currently hold a 5-2 majority on the court.  There are two full-term seats up for election on the Michigan Supreme Court. They are those of moderate Elizabeth Clement and conservative Kurtis Wilder.  Clement was appointed in November 2017 to replace Joan Larsen, who was appointed to a seat on the federal appeals court by President Trump.  Wilder was appointed in May 2017 to replace the retiring Robert Young.  Democrats nominated attorney Megan Kathleen Cavanagh and University of Michigan professor Samuel Bagenstos for Supreme Court.

Other Statewide Offices
Two seats on the state Board of Education and boards of trustees of U of M, MSU, and WSU will be up for election. All eight seats up are held by Republicans. Democrats have swept these elections in 2006, 2008, and 2012, while Republicans swept in 2010.  The candidates are
State Board of Education:
Republicans: Tami Carlone, Richard Zeille
Democrats: Tiffany Tilley, Judy Pritchett
UM Board of Regents:
Republicans: Andrew Richner, Andrea Newman
Democrats: Jordan Acker, Paul Brown
MSU Board of Trustees:
Republicans: Dave Dutch, Mike Miller
Democrats: Brianna Scott, Kelly Tebay
WSU Board of Governors:
Republicans: Diane Dunaskis, David Nicholson
Democrats: Anil Kumar, Bryan Barnhill

Ballot Propositions
A part time legislature initiative failed to make the ballot.  The legislature recently adopted propositions to repeal the prevailing wage law, increase the minimum wage, and add paid sick leave, with the expectation that the latter two will be modified legislatively.  There will be initiatives on the ballot to

• legalize recreational marijuana
• change redistricting in ways beneficial to democrats
• change voting rules in ways beneficial to democrats

Michigan Congressional Seats
Republicans hold a 9-5 majority in Michigan's congressional delegation, which is unchanged since 2012. The 11th district, open due to the retirement of Rep. David Trott, is competitive.  The post below examines these races in detail.

2018 Michigan Congressional Races

Michigan Senate
All 38 seats in the Michigan state senate are up for election, and 26 have no incumbent due to term limits and retirements. Republicans currently hold a 27-11 supermajority after winning landslides in 2010 and 2014. Democrats will likely target Republican-held seats in NW Wayne (7), Macomb (10), Oakland (12, 13, 15), Monroe (17), Kalamazoo County (20), Grand Rapids (29), Bay County (31), Saginaw (32), Muskegon (34), and the UP (38). There were competitive R primaries in many districts to determine the ideological composition of the senate.  The post below examines these races in detail.

2018 Michigan State Senate Elections

20th District (Kalamazoo County) Tossup
Kalamazoo County is a battleground, with Ds usually winning the top of the ticket, and Republicans doing better at the bottom.  In 2014, Margaret O'Brien (10-14) defeated D state rep Sean McCann (10-14) by just 61 votes, with Libertarian former R state rep Lorence Wenke (04-10) taking 9%.  McCann and Wenke are running again, setting up a three-way rematch of 2014.

Michigan House
All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives are up for election. Republicans won a 63-47 majority in 2016.  There will be 42 open seats due to term limits and candidates running for other offices.  Both parties have potential targets to pickup.

2018 Michigan State House Races

60th District (Kalamazoo City) Safe democrat
Democrat state rep Jon Hoadley was first elected in 2014.  William Baker is the R candidate.
61st District (Portage, Oshtemo) Tossup
Republican state rep Brandt Iden was elected 48-43 in 2014 and 49-44 in 2016, defeating D Pastor John Fisher both times.  Ds nominated WMU teached Alberta Griffin over Corey Kendall and Thomas Whitener.
63rd District (E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun) Safe Republican
R state rep David Maturen was first elected in 2014.  He was defeated in the R primary by Republican official Matt Hall.  Jennifer Aniano is the D candidate.
66th District (Van Buren, Cooper) Safe Republican
R state rep Beth Griffin was first elected in 2016.  The D candidate is Dan Seibert.

Kalamazoo County Commission
All 11 seats on the Kalamazoo County Commission will be up for election. Ds hold a 6-5 majority. Republicans will target democrat Michael Quinn (district 10). Democrats will target Republican Scott McGraw (district 11).

2018 Kalamazoo County Commission Races

Michigan House Passes Constitutional Carry

On Wednesday, the Michigan state house passed a package of bills to implement constitutional carry in Michigan.  Constitutional carry means that the government does not impose any permits or fees before citizens can exercise their constitutional right to carry firearms. Around five years ago, support for constitutional carry moved from the fringe to a mainstream Republican position.  Twelve states now have constitutional carry, and more are considering it.

The four bills received 59 to 61 yes votes, and 47 to 49 no votes.  Three democrats voted for all four bills.  They are

• John Chirkun - district 22 (Roseville)
• Phil Phelps - district 49 (Flint suburbs)
• Scott Dianda - district 110 (western UP) - running for state senate (district 38) in 2018

Seven Republicans voted against some or all of the bills.  They are

• Kathy Crawford (against 3 of 4) - district 38 (Novi) - termed out in 2020
• Michael McCready (against all 4) - district 40 (Bloomfield) - termed out in 2018 - may run for senate (district 12)
• Martin Howrylak  (against 2 of 4) - district 41 (Troy) - termed out in 2018
• David Maturen (against all 4) - district 63 (E Kalamazoo) - termed out in 2020
• Chris Afendoulis (against all 4) - district 73 (GR Township) - termed out in 2020 - may run for senate (district 29)
• Rob Verhuelen (against all 4) - district 74 (Walker) - termed out in 2018.  Verhuelen ran against Tom Leonard for Speaker last year.
• Dave Pagel (against all 4) - district 78 (S Berrien) - termed out in 2018

The bills now go to the state senate, where it is not certain whether they will be taken up.  It is also unclear whether Governor Snyder, who has a mixed record on gun rights, would sign them.  Nonetheless, Speaker Tom Leonard and most Republicans in the state house deserve credit for getting them this far.

2018 Michigan State Senate Elections

Last updated October 21, 2018.

Cross-posted at The Western Right, Right Michigan, and RRH Elections.

All 38 seats in the Michigan Senate are up for election in 2014.  Republicans currently have a 27-11 supermajority, and have controlled the senate since 1983.  Republican control of the state senate has prevented democrats from complete control of Michigan's government in some years, and stopped a lot of bad things from being passed.

Fortunately for Republicans, the Michigan state senate is up only in midterms, which usually favor Republicans much more than presidential years.  Republicans had a good year in 2014, picking up one state senate seat, following four pickups in 2010.

The 2010 redistricting produced a map that was moderately pro-Republican, while complying with all relevant laws.

Michigan Redistricting: Official Republican State Senate Map Released
Michigan Redistricting: Republican State Senate Map Passed

There are 26 open seats due to term-limits, 7 D and 19 R.  All current state senators are former state representatives except three (Colbeck, Conyers, Hertel).  Next year, three Detroit-based districts will have senators with no house experience.

For the past few years, the state senate has been more moderate than the state house.  This cycle, several ideologically split Republican primaries resulted in a state senate that will be slightly more conservative than before.

I have included election data for the 2014 state senate election, and McCain (2008), Romney (2012), and Trump (2016) results in each district.  More data is available from Republican Michigander and RRH Elections.

Republican Michigander district profiles (see sidebar)
RRH Michigan Senate Data File
Michigan State Senate 2018 Preview (all up in 2018)

The McCain numbers look terrible for Republicans because he collapsed after publicly pulling out of Michigan.  The largest McCain percentage in any Michigan state senate district won by a democrat in the past twelve years is 46.2% in (old) district 31.

Here is a breakdown of the individual races.  State reps years in office are listed after their names, with P meaning present.

2018 Candidate List (Michigan Secretary of State)

1. [Detroit riverfront, Downriver] Safe democrat
SS 2014: 28-72 McCain: 22.0 Romney: 21.5 Trump: XX
Incumbent: Coleman Young (D term-limited)
This is one of five black-majority districts based in Detroit.  Young, who lost badly in his bid for Detroit Mayor, is now running for Congress.  State rep Stephanie Chang (14-P) easily defeated Bettie Cook Scott (06-10, 16-18) and Alberta Tinsley-Talabi (10-16), along with along with James Cole, Nicholas Rivera, and Stephanie Roehm.  Chang is a progressive favorite who was insulted for racial reasons by Scott. Pauline Monte is the R candidate.

2. [NE Detroit, Grosse Pointes] Safe democrat
SS 2014: 25-71 McCain: 20.1 Romney: 19.3 Trump: XX
Incumbent:  Bert Johnson (D term-limited)
This is one of five black-majority districts based in Detroit.  Johnson pled guilty to theft (hiring a fake employee to pay a debt).  There will be a special election at the same time as the general election.  Incredibly, eleven Ds ran.  Adam Hollier, Johnson's former chief of staff, won the primary thanks to many endorsements, including that of Mayor Duggan.  In second was Hamtramck city commissioner Abraham Aiyash.  Third was eight-time felon and disgraced former rep Brian Banks (12-17), who resigned in a plea bargain.  Also running were former rep George Cushingberry Jr. (74-82, 04-10), who lost his seat on the Detroit city council due to scandal,  former rep John Olumba (10-14), who became an independent in 2013, and former state rep Lamar Lemmons (99-06).   Also-rans include Tommy Campbell, Lawrence Gannon, Anam Miah, William Phillips, and Regina Williams.  Lisa Papas beat John Hauler for the R nomination.

3. [West-central Detroit, Dearborn, Melvindale] Safe democrat
SS 2014: 20-80 McCain: 16.3 Romney: 14.5 Trump: XX
Incumbent: Morris Hood (D term-limited)
This is one of five black-majority districts based in Detroit.  Detroit State rep Sylvia Santana (16-P) won a close race over former R state rep (98-04) and D county commissioner (04-P) Gary Woronchak of Dearborn, with Anita Bella and Terry Burrell far behind.  The R candidate is Kathy Stecker.

4. [Central Detroit, Lincoln Park, Southgate, Allen Park] Safe democrat
SS 2014: 16-84 McCain: 18.5 Romney: 16.7 Trump: XX
Incumbent: Ian Conyers (D)
This is one of five black-majority districts based in Detroit. Virgil Smith resigned after pleading guilty to shooting at his ex-wife.  The 2016 special election was won by Ian Conyers, defeating State rep Fred Durhal (14-P).  Conyers, the great-nephew of Congressman John Conyers, lost a race for Congress this year.  Marshall Bullock, who had the backing of Mayor Duggan, defeated Durhal and Carron Pinkins.  The R candidate is Angela Savino.

5. [W Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Garden City, Inkster, Redford] Safe democrat
SS 2014: 18-82 McCain: 20.6 Romney: 18.4 Trump: XX
Incumbent: David Knezek (D)
This is one of five black-majority districts based in Detroit.  Knezek, who is white, won a split primary with 29% in 2014. He was shockingly upset by Betty Alexander, a black woman who raised no money.  The upset was masterminded by her relative, former rep Lamar Lemmons III.  The R candidate is DeShawn Wilkins.

6. [SW Wayne, Westland, Taylor] Safe democrat
SS 2014: 38-62 McCain: 34.3 Romney: 35.1 Trump: XX
Incumbent: Hoon-Yung Hopgood (D term-limited)
Liberal rep Erika Geiss (14-P) beat moderate state rep Robert Kosowski (12-18) for the D nomination.  The R candidate is Brenda Jones.

7. [Livonia, Canton, Plymouth, Northville, Wayne city] Lean Republican
SS 2014: 52-48 McCain: 47.3 Romney: 50.0 Trump: 49.0
Incumbent: Patrick Colbeck (R term-limited)
State rep Laura Cox (14-P), who represented more than half of the district on the Wayne County commission, is the R candidate.  Dayna Polehanki beat Ghulham Qadir, who raised significant out of state money, and was credibly accused of spousal abuse, for the D nomination.  Cox is a strong candidate, but Ds had high primary turnout here.

8. [N/E Macomb] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 62-38 McCain: 50.3 Romney: 54.0 Trump: 62.4
Incumbent: Jack Brandenburg (R term-limited)
R state rep Peter Lucido (14-P) defeated former rep Ken Goike (10-16), who represented only 5% of the district.  Ds nominated Paul Francis over Patrick Biange and Raymond Filipek.

9. [Warren, Roseville, Eastpointe, Fraser, S Clinton] Safe democrat
SS 2014: 32-68 McCain: 37.7 Romney: 36.7 Trump: 44.2
Incumbent: Steven Bieda (D term-limited)
D state rep (96-02) and Warren city clerk Paul Wojno beat Kristina Lodovisi. Rs nominated Jeff Bonnell over Fred Kuplicki.

10. [Sterling Heights, Macomb, N Clinton] Tossup
SS 2014: 63-37 McCain: 47.8 Romney: 51.1 Trump: 58.4
Incumbent: Tory Rocca (R term-limited)
Republicans suffered a significant recruitment failure here.  The R candidate is Doctor Michael Macdonald, who beat former state house candidate Michael Shallal and gadfly Joseph Bogdan.  D state rep Henry Yanez (12-18) is a strong candidate who has held a swingy district.  Primary turnout was decent for the GOP.

11. [Farmington, Southfield, Oak Park, Madison Heights] Safe democrat
SS 2014: 24-76 McCain: 25.8 Romney: 26 Trump: 25.6
Incumbent: Vincent Gregory (D term-limited)
D State rep Jeremy Moss (14-P) of Southfield easily beat Crystal Bailey, Vanessa Moss, and James Turner.  The R candidate is Boris Tuman.

12. [NE Oakland, Pontiac, Bloomfield Twp.] Lean Republican
SS 2014: 57-43 McCain: 46.4 Romney: 50.2 Trump: 50.3
Incumbent: Jim Marleau (R term-limited)
Moderate state rep Michael McCready (12-18) beat conservative state rep Jim Tedder (14-P) by only 1%, with Vernon Molnar and Terry Whitney acting as spoilers.  The D candidate is Rosemary Bayer.  Low turnout in Pontiac usually hurts Ds in midterms in this district, but primary turnout was high this time.

13. [Troy, Rochester, Royal Oak, Birmingham] Tossup
SS 2014: 58-42 McCain: 46.5 Romney: 50.4 Trump: 46.9
Incumbent: Marty Knollenberg (R)
Knollenberg won a very close primary in 2014.  The D candidate is businesswoman Mallory McMorrow.  There was high D turnout in the primary here.

14. [SW Genesee, NW Oakland, Waterford] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 58-42 McCain: 48.5 Romney: 51.9 Trump: 58.9
Incumbent: David Robertson (R term-limited)
Surprisingly, Secretary of State (10-18) Ruth Johnson, who once represented this area as a state rep (98-04), is seeking to move down to the state senate.  She easily beat Katherine Houston in the R primary.  Renee Watson won the D nomination over Cris Rariden and Jason Waisanen.

15. [SW Oakland] Lean Republican
SS 2014: 58-42 McCain: 48.3 Romney: 52.9 Trump: 52.2
Incumbent: Mike Kowall (R term-limited)
Kowall beat Tea Party leader Matt Maddock only 50-43 in the 2014 primary.  Conservative state rep Jim Runestad (14-P) won the nomination over Mike Saari, and Maddock won the nomination for Runestad's house seat.  The D candidate is Julia Pulver.

16. [Jackson, Hillsdale, Branch] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 61-39 McCain: 50.8 Romney: 55.6 Trump: 64.8
Incumbent: Mike Shirkey (R)
Shirkey, who led the fights for both Right to Work and Medicaid expansion, is the presumptive favorite to be the next senate majority leader.  He beat conservative Matt Dame, who had the support of previous incumbent Bruce Caswell.  The D candidate is Val Toops.

17. [Monroe, Lenawee] Lean Republican
SS 2014: 51-46 McCain: 47.6 Romney: 49.9 Trump: 61.5
Incumbent: Dale Zorn (R)
Rs have held this competitive district for at least the last five elections.  Zorn defeated rep Doug Spade (98-04) in 2014.  The D candidate is state rep Bill Lavoy (12-16), who lost his 2016 reelection by 8%.

18. [Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti] Safe democrat
SS 2014: 28-72 McCain: 24.9 Romney: 27.0 Trump: 23.6
Incumbent: Rebekah Warren (D term-limited)
Ann Arbor loves electing left-wing feminist state senators, including Warren, Liz Brater, Alma Wheeler Smith, and Lana Pollack.  D state rep Jeff Irwin (10-16) narrowly beat Washtenaw County Commissioner Michelle Deatrick, businesswoman Anuja Rajendra, and Matthew Miller.  The R candidate is Martin Church.

19. [Calhoun, Barry, Ionia] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 62-38 McCain: 49.6 Romney: 53.4 Trump: 61.8
Incumbent: Mike Nofs (R term-limited)
Calhoun County state rep John Bizon (14-P) beat moderate R state rep Mike Callton (10-16) of Barry County in an expensive primary.  The D candidate is Jason Noble.

20. [Kalamazoo County] Tossup
SS 2014: 45.5-45.4 McCain: 40.1 Romney: 43.3 Trump: 43.2
Incumbent: Margaret O'Brien (R)
Kalamazoo County is a battleground, with Ds usually winning the top of the ticket, and Republicans doing better at the bottom.  In 2014, O'Brien (10-14) defeated D state rep Sean McCann (10-14) by just 61 votes, with Libertarian former R state rep Lorence Wenke (04-10) taking 9%.  McCann and Wenke are running again, setting up a three-way rematch of 2014.  O'Brien is a strong campaigner who is now an incumbent, but there was heavy D turnout in the primary.

21. [Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 64-36 McCain: 48.1 Romney: 54.6 Trump: 60.5
Incumbent: John Proos (R term-limited)
Conservative state rep Kim LaSata (16-P) beat moderate state rep Dave Pagel (12-18) for the R nomination.  The D candidate is Ian Haight.

22. [Livingston, W Washtenaw] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 59-41 McCain: 52.8 Romney: 57.2 Trump: 59.2
Incumbent: Joe Hune (R term-limited)
R state rep Lana Theis (14-P) easily beat Joseph Marinaro.  The D candidate is Adam Dreher.

23. [Ingham] Safe democrat
SS 2014: 34-66 McCain: 31.9 Romney: 34.5 Trump: 34.6
Incumbent: Curtis Hertel Jr. (D)
Hertel, then Ingham Register of Deeds, won this seat in 2014.  Andrea Pollock beat Nancy Denny for the R nomination.

24. [Eaton, Clinton, Shiawassee, NE Ingham] Lean Republican
SS 2014: 56-44 McCain: 47.1 Romney: 50.1 Trump: 56.1
Incumbent: Rick Jones (R term-limited)
Conservative state rep Tom Barrett (14-P) easily defeated moderate state rep Brett Roberts (14-P), who represents only 7% of the district.  D Public affairs specialist/lobbyist Kelly Rossman-McKinney is running, and has raised a lot from her Lansing contacts.

25. [St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 56-44 McCain: 50.1 Romney: 55.6 Trump: 68.4
Incumbent: Phil Pavlov (R term-limited)
House majority leader Dan Lauwers (12-18) is the R candidate.  Debbie Bourgois is the D candidate.

26. [Van Buren, Allegan, Kentwood] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 61-39 McCain: 51.5 Romney: 55.4 Trump: 58.9
Incumbent: Tonya Schuitmaker (R term-limited)
State rep (10-16) and lottery commissioner Aric Nesbitt beat conservative former state rep (08-14) and Allegan County Clerk Bob Genetski, with dentist Don Wickstra in third.  D Garnet Lewis, who lost the primary for the 32nd district in Saginaw in 2014, is the D candidate.

27. [Flint, central Genesee] Safe democrat
SS 2014: 23-77 McCain: 24.0 Romney: 25.0 Trump: XX
Incumbent: Jim Ananich (D)
Ananich, who won a special election in 2013, is now the D state senate minority leader.  The R candidate is Donna Kekesis.

28. [N Kent, Walker] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 66-34 McCain: 56.5 Romney: 61.1 Trump: 61.9
Incumbent: Peter MacGregor (R)
MacGregor, who was elected in 2014, holds one of the safest R districts in Michigan.  Craig Beach beat Gidget Groendyk and Ryan Jeanette for the D nomination.

29. [Grand Rapids, SE Kent] Lean democrat
SS 2014: 58-42 McCain: 42.8 Romney: 46.8 Trump: 41.9
Incumbent: Dave Hildenbrand (R term-limited)
This district has been trending away from Rs at the top of the ticket, but has more R strength downballot.  Moderate R state rep Chris Afendoulis (14-P) easily beat Daniel Oesch.   State rep Winnie Brinks (12-18) is the D candidate.  Turnout favored dems in the primary.

30. [Ottawa County] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 71-29 McCain: 62.1 Romney: 67.4 Trump: 66.3
Incumbent: Arlan Meekhof (R term-limited)
Ottawa County is usually the most Republican in Michigan.  State rep Roger Victory (12-18) defeated reps Daniella Garcia (14-P) and Joe Haveman (08-14) and conservative activist Rett DeBoer.  Garcia and Haveman represented the same district and split the vote there.  The D candidate is Jeanette Schipper.

31. [Bay, Tuscola, Lapeer] Lean Republican
SS 2014: 55-45 McCain: 47.2 Romney: 52.0 Trump: 64.4
Incumbent: Mike Green (R term-limited)
This district has alternated between parties every 8-10 years since the 1980s.  Mike Green narrowly won the 2014 primary 50-46 over state rep. Kevin Daley (08-14) of Lapeer County.  Daley beat conservative state rep Gary Glenn (14-P), who recently moved to Bay County and had Green's support.  D Bay County Clerk Cynthia Luczak, who is pro-life, beat school counselor Bill Jordan,  Joni Batterbee and Chuck Stadler.

32. [Saginaw, W Genesee] Lean Republican
SS 2014: 54-46 McCain: 43.1 Romney: 45.9 Trump: 53.2
Incumbent: Ken Horn (R)
Incredibly, despite D dominance of Saginaw County, Rs have won this district for the last seven elections.  D state rep Phil Phelps (13-18) of Flushing beat veteran Henry Gaudreau, despite representing only 3% of the senate district.

33. [Montcalm, Isabella, Gratiot, Mecosta, Clare] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 57-43 McCain: 46.8 Romney: 51.5 Trump: 62.3
Incumbent: Judy Emmons (R term-limited)
R state rep Rick Outman (10-16) easily beat former state house candidate Greg Alexander.  Mark Bignell beat John Hoppough for the D nomination.

34. [Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana] Lean Republican
SS 2014: 56-44 McCain: 39.8 Romney: 46.0 Trump: 55.5
Incumbent: Geoff Hansen (R term-limited)
R state rep Jon Bumstead (10-16) of Newaygo, an early endorser of Trump, beat self-funding state rep. Holly Hughes (10-12, 14-18) of Muskegon County.  Activist Poppy Sias-Hernandez upset state rep Collene Lamonte (12-14), who defeated Hughes in 2012 and lost a rematch in 2014, for the D nomination.

35. [NC Lower Peninsula] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 60-40 McCain: 49.8 Romney: 54.5 Trump: 64.6
Incumbent: Darwin Booher (R term-limited)
Rep Curt VanderWall (16-P) beat conservative state rep Ray Franz (10-16), rep Bruce Rendon (10-16), and Cary Urka for the R nomination.  The D candidate is Mike Taillard.

36. [NE Lower Peninsula, Midland] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 61-39 McCain: 50.8 Romney: 56.0 Trump: 65.4
Incumbent: Jim Stamas (R)
This district was competitive in 2002, but has moved right since then.  Stamas is in line to be the next appropriations committee chairman.  The D candidate is Joe Weir.

37. [NW Lower Peninsula, E Upper Peninsula] Safe Republican
SS 2014: 61-39 McCain: 51.9 Romney: 56.8 Trump: 61.1
Incumbent: Wayne Schmidt (R)
Schmidt won a bitter primary in 2014.  He beat conservative teacher Jim Gurr this time.  The D candidate is Jim Page.

38. [Upper Peninsula excluding Mackinac, Chippewa, Luce] Tossup
SS 2014: 62-38 McCain: 46.2 Romney: 51.0 Trump: 59.0
Incumbent: Tom Casperson (R term-limited)
This district was held for Ds for decades until Casperson won it in 2010.  R state rep Ed McBroom (10-16) of Dickinson County beat moderate Mike Carey in the R primary.  Moderate D state rep Scott Dianda (12-18) from western UP is a strong candidate.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe D: 11 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 11, 18, 23, 27)
Lean D: 1 (29)
Tossup: 4 (10, 13, 20, 38)
Lean R: 8 (7, 12, 15, 17, 24, 31, 32, 34)
Safe R: 14 (8, 14, 16, 19, 21, 22, 25, 26, 28, 30, 33, 35, 36, 37)