Does High Voter Turnout Prove Voter Fraud?

UPDATED 6/29 with final numbers.

One argument that there was mass voter fraud in the 2020 election is that the overall number of votes is too high.  The argument often includes the fact that Joe Biden got 82 million votes in 2020, while Barack Obama got 69 million votes in 2008.  How can this be explained?

1. Population growth.  The US population is not constant.  In 2008, there were 304 million people; in 2020 there are 331 million, according to the census bureau.  That's 27 million more people.  The popular vote went from 131 million to 160 million over the same time period.  That's an increase of 29 million votes.  Turnout was slightly higher than 2008, but not much.  Population growth almost entirely explains the change.

2. Vote by mail.  Due to COVID, many states loosened their rules and promoted voting by mail.  Some Secretaries of State (including SOS Benson) mailed absentee ballot applications to everyone.  Their goal was to increase turnout (and help Ds), and it worked.

3. Likeability.  Who do voters dislike more, Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden?  Most likely, Hillary.  Some D-leaning voters refused to vote for Hillary but decided Biden was good enough.

4.  Trump.  The election was a referendum on Trump.  Many people strongly support the president, and many strongly oppose him.  Biden was a vessel for the latter group.  Even aside from COVID, there was no reason for anyone to go to his rallies.

By the way, there is nothing unusual about this historically.  In 2000, Al Gore got 51 million votes (48.4%).  Four years later, John Kerry got 59 million votes (48.3%).  Kerry didn't have that many enthusiastic supporters, but the left hated George W. Bush.  Ralph Nader got 2.7% in 2000, but only 0.4% in 2004.  Many third party voters saw the election as a referendum on the incumbent.  It appears the same happened this year.

Presumably, proponents of the high turnout theory believe that millions of illegal votes were added for Biden.  Absentee ballot fraud seems to be the most common theory for how this could happen.  Breaking down the turnout increase by state casts further doubt on this theory.

Turnout was up in every state from 2016 to 2020.  The turnout percentage hit a 40-year high in 44 states.  Biden 2020 had a higher raw vote total over Hillary 2016 in every state.  Trump's margin declined in 43 states, and increased in only seven (AR, CA, FL, HI, IL, NV, UT).  (In IL and NV the increase was less than 0.1%)  If the turnout increase was due to fraud, the fraud occurred all across the county, including in states that were not at all competitive.

I calculated the percentage increases in turnout by state.  The largest percentage increase was in Hawaii, up 34% from 2016.  Hawaii is a deep blue state with no competitive statewide races.  The second largest increase (32%) was in Utah, a deep red state with no competitive statewide races, and only one competitive congressional race.  The top ten percentage increases are 

HI 34%
UT 32%
AZ 30%
TX 26%
ID 26%
NV 25%
CA 23%
WA 23%
TN 22%
GA 22%

Only three of these states (AZ, NV, GA) were swing states (four if you count Texas).  The state with the smallest increase was North Dakota.

Were Ds conducting massive voter fraud operations in safe red states?  It seems unlikely.  Note that this does not mean that there was no absentee vote fraud, only that a turnout increase, by itself, does not prove it.