Michigan 2014 Election Results

Governor: 51-47 for Rick Snyder.  Much closer than his blowout in 2010, but good enough for a second term.

Senate: 41-55 for Gary Peters.  Peters ran a good campaign.  Land was a disaster.  Maybe someday the Michigan GOP will find a good Senate candidate.

AG: 52-44 for Bill Schuette.  Schuette for Governor in 2018!

SOS: 54-43 for Ruth Johnson over a token opponent.  Perhaps Ruth will challenge Stabenow in 2018.

The two referenda on wolf hunting both failed, 55-45 and 64-36.  Only the opponents of wolf hunting spent money here.

Supreme Court was 32-29-21-14 for Zahra (R,I) and Bernstein (D), who spent 2 million of his own money to win this seat.  David Viviano won the partial term 62-29.

Education Boards.  Republicans appear to have picked a seat on the MSU board with Melanie Foster, but lost all the other ed board seats.  This is very disappointing considering the circumstances.  Third party candidates probably cost us several seats here.

Congress.  As I long predicted, only district 1 was even somewhat close.

1. 52-45 for Benishek.  OK, but not great.  If Benishek keeps his term limits pledge, this seat will be open in 2016.

2. 64-33 for Huizinga

3. 58-39 for Amash.  He’s secure here.

4. 56-39 for Moolenaar.  Secure.

5. 31-67 Kildee

6. 56-40 Upton.  He no longer overperforms like he used to, but Upton is still secure.

7. 53-41 Walberg. He will never win big margins, but he has settled in here.

8. 55-42 Bishop.  Secure.

9. 36-60 for Sander Levin.

10. 69-29 for Candace Miller.  I wish she’d run for Senate.

11. 56-41 Trott.  No word on write-in votes.

12. 31-65 for Debbie Dingell

13. 16-80 for Conyers

14. 20-78 for Lawrence

State Senate.  The GOP actually picked up one seat, winning a 27-11 supermajority (pending a recount in 20).  Looks like the dems two-cycle strategy will need to pick two different cycles.  In competitive districts:

7. 52-48 Colbeck.  Huge hold for conservatives.

13. 58-42 Knollenberg.  Not close after Fishman lost the dem primary.  Good win for conservatives.

17. 51-46 for Dale Zorn.  Close win in a tossup district.

20. 45.52-45.45-9.0 for Margaret O’Brien over Sean McCann and Lorence Wenke.  The 60-vote margin likely means a recount.  A very close win in a district that may be trending away from the GOP.  It isn’t immediately clear who Lorence took from.

24. 56-44 for Rick Jones.  Tom Leonard may run in four years when this is open.

25. 56-44 for Phil Pavlov.  Terry Brown preformed respectably under the circumstances.

31. 56-44 for Mike Green.  Somewhat close.  This will be a tough defense in four years.

32. 54-46 for Ken Horn in another hotly contested tossup.  Republicans have won the last five state senate elections in Saginaw.

34. 56-44 for Geoff Hansen.  Not that close.

There will be a bunch of competitive open seats four years from now, but Senate Republicans look good right now.

State house.  Republicans picked up four seats, expanding their majority to 63-47, same as after 2010.  There will be many tough open seats in 2016 due to term limits of members elected in 2010.

1. 33-67 We’ll have Brian Banks to kick around for another two years.

3-9. Dems won 94-98% in the all-Detroit districts.

21. 45-55 for Kristi Pagan.  This seat was badly drawn; why didn’t the GOP make it all of Canton?

23. 52-48 for Pat Somerville.  This will be a tough open seat in 2016.

25. 47-53 Nick Hawatmeh comes up short in another terribly drawn seat.

30. 55-45 for Jeff Farrington.  This will be another tough open seat in 2016.

39. 52-48 for Klint Kesto

41. 56-44 for Martin Howrylak

43. 58-42 for Jim Tedder.  Dems thought they could win this.

52. 44-56 This could have been close if it was seriously contested.

56. 50-47 for Jason Sheppard in this close open Republican seat.

59. 62-38 for Aaron Miller

60. 30-70 for Jon Hoadley

61. 48-43-9 for Brandt Iden, who was damaged by scandal.

62. 51-49 for John Bizon in a very tough Battle Creek/Albion district.  PICKUP.

63. 56-44 for David Maturen

66. 57-43 for Aric Nesbitt.  This will be a tough open seat in 2016.

67. 46-54 This district is close, but not winnable.

71. 50.4-49.6 for Tom Barrett over Theresa Abed.  Tom is a strong conservative and an exceptional candidate. PICKUP

76. 46-52 Donijoe DeJonge falls short to Winnie Brinks.  This district is probably gone.

80. 63-34 for Cindy Gamrat

82. 55-45 for Todd Courser

84. 59-41 for Edward Canfield.  PICKUP

85. 53-43 for Ben Glardon.  This will be another tough open seat in 2016.

91. 46.5-46.3 for Holly Hughes over Colleen LaMonte. PICKUP

98. 55-45 for Gary Glenn

99. 52-48 for Kevin Cotter, potentially the next Speaker of the Michigan House.  This will be a tough open seat in 2016.

101. 50.4-49.6 for Ray Franz.  A very tough open seat in 2016.

104. 53-47 for Larry Inman.  Surprisingly close.

106. 55-45 for Peter Pettalia.  A tough open seat in 2016.

107. 61-39 for Lee Chatfield

My ratings turned out to be quite accurate.  Every race I had at lean, likely, or safe for a party was won by that party except one (house 62).  I always thought Snyder, Schuette, and Johnson would win, and that no congressional races except MI-1 would be close.  I was initially too optimistic about Land, however.  My state senate tossups had margins of 8, 5, and 0.  My state house tossups had margins of 5, 1, 1, and 0.  The closest margin in a race I had at safe was 6 (house 104).  The closest margin in a race I had at lean (excluding house 62) was 3 (house 56).