Friday, May 23, 2014

2014 Michigan State House Races

Last updated June 12, 2014.

Cross-posted at The Western Right, Right Michigan, and Red Racing Horses.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans currently hold a 59-51 majority, following a 63-47 majority after 2010. There are 40 open seats, 21 held by Republicans and 19 held by democrats.  There are 30 open due to term-limits and 10 just seeking another office.

Republicans gained one new seat (73) and one existing seat (39) due to redistricting, but also lost one existing seat (55) in 2012.  They also lost five incumbents (52, 71, 84, 91, 110), not counting party-switcher Roy Schmidt (76).  They could have won several more seats with a more effective redistricting plan.

Democrats want to take back the state house, but face a difficult playing field.  Of the Republican-held open seats, only 56 and possibly 65 are competitive.  They will try to defeat some Republican incumbents, but it is not clear how they will beat incumbents this year that they couldn't defeat in 2012.

Meanwhile, Republicans will seek to gain seats.  The best opportunity is the open 84, which was lost due to scandal in 2012.  There are two lean dem open seats (21, 62) that may be competitive.  Republicans will also try to defeat several incumbents who picked up seats in 2012 (25, 71, 91).

There are a number of interesting primaries in August.  A bunch of Republican incumbents are being challenged due to their support of Medicaid expansion.  Most will win easily, but there is the potential for a few to be surprised.  The open seats feature more competitive primaries, many of which also feature establishment versus Tea Party battles.





2014 Unofficial Michigan Primary Candidate Listing

The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012 state house result, 2012 Romney %, and political rating.  I did not use 'likely' in the ratings.

1. (Brian Banks) [Detroit] 29-71, 23.5%, Safe D
2. (Alberta Tinsley Talibi) [Detroit] 26-72, 23.8%, Safe D
3. (OPEN-John Olumba) [Detroit] 3-96, 1.6%, Safe D
4. (Rose Robinson) [Detroit] 5-95, 3.4%, Safe D
5. (OPEN-Fred Durhal) [Detroit] 6-94, 2.7%, Safe D
6. (OPEN-Rashida Tlaib) [Detroit] 5-92, 5.3%, Safe D
7. (Thomas Stallworth) [Detroit] 2-98, 0.9%, Safe D
8. (OPEN-David Nathan) [Detroit] 3-97, 2%, Safe D
9. (Harvey Santana) [Detroit] 5-95, 3.3%, Safe D
10. (OPEN-Phil Cavanaugh) [Detroit] 14-86, 16.4%, Safe D
11. (OPEN-David Knezek) [Inkster, Garden City] 28-72, 29.3%, Safe D
12. (OPEN-Douglas Geiss) [Taylor, Romulus] 25-75, 29.5%, Safe D
13. (OPEN-Andrew Kandrevas) [Southgate, Allen Park, Dearborn Heights] 35-65, 40.3%, Safe D
14. (Paul Clemente) [Riverview, Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, Melvindale] 26-71, 34.9%, Safe D
15. (George Darany) [Dearborn] 25-75, 33.5%, Safe D
16. (Robert Kosowski) [Westland, Wayne] 28-68, 33.3%, Safe D
17. (Bill Lavoy) [N Monroe, Sumpter, Huron] 39-61, 45.3%, Safe D
18. (Sarah Roberts) [St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe] 34-64, 40.7%, Safe D
19. (OPEN-John Walsh) [Livonia] 60-40, 52%, Safe R
20. (Kurt Heise) [Plymouth, Northville] 56-44, 51.8%, Safe R
21. (OPEN-Dian Slavens) [Canton, Van Buren] 38-62, 43.3%, Lean D
22. (OPEN-Harold Haugh) [Roseville, E Warren] 30-70, 36.2%, Safe D
23. (Pat Somerville) [SE Wayne] 50.5-49.5, 47.5%, Lean R
24. (Anthony Forlini) [Harrison, N Clinton, SW Macomb] 54.7-45.3, Safe R
25. (Henry Yanez) [E Sterling Heights, NC Warren] 48.6-51.4, 47.8%, Lean D
26. (Jim Townsend) [Royal Oak, Madison Heights] 36-60, 40.3%, Safe D
27. (OPEN-Ellen Cogen Lipton) [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park] 20-76, 24.8%, Safe D
28. (OPEN-Jon Switalski) [W Warren, Center Line] 21-79, 35.8%, Safe D
29. (Tim Greimel) [Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Orchard Lake] 23-77, 23.9%, Safe D
30. (Jeff Farrington) [W Sterling Heights, Utica, SE Shelby] 53.3-46.7, 51.5%, Safe R
31. (Marilyn Lane) [S Clinton, Fraser, Mt. Clemens] 34-62, 41.8%, Safe D
32. (Andrea LaFontaine) [Chesterfield, C St. Clair] 59-41, 53.9%, Safe R
33. (Ken Goike) [NE Macomb, Macomb Twp.] 62-38, 56.2%, Safe R
34. (OPEN-Woodrow Stanley) [Flint] 13-87, 8.3%, Safe D
35. (OPEN-Rudy Hobbs) [Southfield] 17-83, 17.6%, Safe D
36. (OPEN-Pete Lund) [Shelby, Washington, Bruce] 64-36, 61%, Safe R
37. (OPEN-Vicki Barnett) [Farmington] 38-62, 40.3%, Safe D
38. (OPEN-Hugh Crawford) [Novi, Lyon] 59-41, 53.6%, Safe R
39. (Klint Kesto) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom] 53.3-46.7, 51.5%, Lean R
40. (Michael McCready) [Bloomfield, Birmingham, E West Bloomfield] 57-41, 52.8%, Safe R
41. (Martin Howrylak) [Troy, Clawson] 50.5-49.5, 51.6%, Lean R
42. (OPEN-Bill Rogers) [SE Livingston] 63-33, 60.2%, Safe R
43. (OPEN-Gail Haines) [Waterford, Independence] 66-34, 54.8%, Safe R
44. (OPEN-Eileen Kowall) [Springfield, White Lake, Highland, Milford] 63-33, 59.1%, Safe R
45. (OPEN-Tom McMillin) [Rochester, S Oakland Twp] 56-44, 55.9%, Safe R
46. (Bradford Jacobsen) [NE Oakland] 64-36, 60.1%, Safe R
47. (OPEN-Cindy Denby) [N Livingston] 64-32, 62.5%, Safe R
48. (Pam Faris) [NE Genesee] 36-64, 39.8%, Safe D
49. (Phil Phelps) [Flint Twp., Mt. Morris, SW Flint] 25-75, 28.8%, Safe D
50. (Charles Smiley) [Burton, Grand Blanc, Mundy] 39-61, 42.7%, Safe D
51. (Joe Graves) [W Genesee, Fenton, NW Oakland] 54.3-45.7, 53.1%, Safe R
52. (Gretchen Driskell) [W Washtenaw] 47-53, 47.5%, Lean D
53. (Jeff Irwin) [Ann Arbor] 19-81, 19.5%, Safe D
54. (David Rutledge) [Ypsilanti] 23-77, 23.8%, Safe D
55. (Adam Zemke) [Pittsfield, NE Ann Arbor, York, Augusta] 32-65, 31.6%, Safe D
56. (OPEN-Dale Zorn) [S Monroe] 58-42, 50.6%, Lean R
57. (Nancy Jenkins) [Lenawee] 52.5-47.5, 49.9%, Lean R
58. (OPEN-Ken Kurtz) [Branch, Hillsdale] 70-30, 60.1%, Safe R
59. (OPEN-Matt Lori) [St. Joseph, E Cass] 62-38, 54.7%, Safe R
60. (OPEN-Sean McCann) [Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp.] 26-74, 26.8%, Safe D
61. (OPEN-Margaret O'Brien) [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] 58-42, 49.1%, Safe R
62. (OPEN-Kate Segal) [Battle Creek, Albion, N Calhoun] 42-58, 43.8%, Lean D
63. (OPEN-Jase Bolger) [E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun] 50.9-49.1, 54.6%, Safe R
64. (Earl Poleski) [Jackson city, W Jackson] 56-44, 51.2%, Safe R
65. (OPEN-Mike Shirkey) [N Jackson, SE Eaton] 57-43, 53.4%, Lean R
66. (Aric Nesbitt) [Van Buren, Cooper, Alamo, Parchment] 59-41, 49.7%, Safe R
67. (Tom Cochran) [S Ingham] 44-56, 44.8%, Safe D
68. (Andy Schor) [Lansing] 23-77, 24.6%, Safe D
69. (Sam Singh) [East Lansing, Meridian] 35-65, 35.9%, Safe D
70. (Rick Outman) [Montcalm, N Gratiot] 54.5-45.5, 52.6%, Safe R
71. (Theresa Abed) [Eaton] 46.6-53.4, 47.3%, Tossup
72. (Ken Yonker) [Kentwood, Gaines, NE Allegan] 59-38, 56.3%, Safe R
73. (OPEN-Peter MacGregor) [Grand Rapids Twp, Plainfield, NE Kent] 64-32, 60.9%, Safe R
74. (Rob Verhuelen) [Grandville, Walker, Alpine, NW Kent] 66-34, 60.4%, Safe R
75. (Brandon Dillon) [central Grand Rapids] 24-76, 23.8%, Safe D
76. (Winnie Brinks) [peripheral Grand Rapids] 39-52, 44.2%, Lean D
77. (Thomas Hooker) [Wyoming, Byron] 60-36, 58.3%, Safe R
78. (Dave Pagel) [S Berrien, SW Cass] 61-39, 56.1%, Safe R
79. (Al Pscholka) [N Berrien] 52.8-45.7, 51.5%, Safe R
80. (OPEN-Bob Genetski) [Allegan] 62-38, 57.6%, Safe R
81. (Dan Lauwers) [NW, E St. Clair] 53.8-46.2, 55%, Safe R
82. (OPEN-Kevin Daley) [Lapeer] 59-41, 55.1%, Safe R
83. (Paul Muxlow) [Sanilac, Port Huron] 56-44, 52.5%, Safe R
84. (OPEN-Terry Brown) [Tuscola, Huron] 38-53, 55.6%, Lean R
85. (Ben Glardon) [Shiawassee, W Saginaw] 54-40, 48.9%, Safe R
86. (Lisa Posthumus Lyons) [SE Kent, N Ionia] 70-30, 63%, Safe R
87. (Mike Callton) [Barry, S Ionia] 62-35, 58.7%, Safe R
88. (Roger Victory) [NE Ottawa] 87-0, 72.9%, Safe R
89. (Amanda Price) [W Ottawa] 66-34, 61.6%, Safe R
90. (Joseph Haveman) [Holland] 100-0, 66.5%, Safe R
91. (Collene Lamonte) [S, W Muskegon] 47.3-48.1, 48.5%, Lean D
92. (Marcia Hovey Wright) [Muskegon city] 27-73, 31.3%, Safe D
93. (Tom Leonard) [S Gratiot, Clinton] 57-43, 52.9%, Safe R
94. (Tim Kelly) [Saginaw Twp, E Saginaw] 56-44, 55.7%, Safe R
95. (OPEN-Stacy Erwin Oakes) [Saginaw city] 22-78, 24.8%, Safe D
96. (Charles Brunner) [Bay] 31-69, 45.3%, Safe D
97. (Joel Johnson) [Arenac, Gladwin, Clare, E Osceola] 62-38, 53.2%, Safe R
98. (OPEN-Jim Stamas) [C Midland, N Bay] 59-41, 56%, Safe R
99. (Kevin Cotter) [Isabella, W Midland] 57-43, 48.1%, Safe R
100. (Jon Bumstead) [Newaygo, Oceana, Lake] 62-38, 55.5%, Safe R
101. (Ray Franz) [Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Mason] 51-49, 50.7%, Lean R
102. (Phil Potvin) [Wexford, W Osceola, Mecosta] 54.8-45.2, 56.3%, Safe R
103. (Bruce Rendon) [Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw] 52.8-47.2, 55.9%, Safe R
104. (OPEN-Wayne Schmidt) [Grand Traverse] 57-43, 55.4%, Safe R
105. (OPEN-Greg MacMaster) [Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda] 67-33, 58.5%, Safe R
106. (Peter Petallia) [E Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco] 52.2-45.3, 53.6%, Lean R
107. (Frank Foster) [Emmet, Mackinac, Chippewa, N Cheboygan] 58-42, 55.5%, Safe R
108. (Ed McBroom) [Delta, Menominee, Dickinson] 54.6-45.4, 54.6%, Safe R
109. (John Kivela) [Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, Luce] 42-58, 45.4%, Safe D
110. (Scott Dianda) [W Upper Peninsula] 48.4-51.6, 51.6%, Lean D

Ratings:
Safe D: 42
Lean D: 7
Tossup: 1
Lean R: 10
Safe R: 50

Most races will not be competitive, but a few deserve attention.

1. Brian Banks won the 2012 democrat primary before his long criminal record and repeated failure to pay rent (he was kicked out of his campaign office) was exposed.  He has six primary challengers.
19. Laura Cox, a Wayne County Commissioner and wife of former Attorney General Mike Cox, is the favorite to win this safe R seat.
21. Carol Fausonne has a chance to pick up this open seat, but it could have been drawn much better if it included all of Canton.
23. Pat Summerville was narrowly reelected in the most dem seat held by a Republican.  He is probably a modest favorite this time.
25. Nick Hawatmeh will try to beat dem Henry Yanez, who won a new open seat in 2012 which could have been much better drawn.
30. Dem Joseph Bogdan is seeking a rematch with Jeff Farrington, who beat him in 2012.
39. Klint Kesto, the surprise primary winner in 2012, is being challenged in the primary by Tea Party leader Deb O'Hagan.  Two dems are seeking to beat Kesto, who picked up this seat in 2012.
41. Martin Howrylak faces a rematch with Mary Kerwin, who he barely beat by 1% in 2012.
42. Former Livingston GOP chairwoman Lana Theis, who is endorsed by Right to Life, appears to be the favorite in the GOP primary against three others, including fake Republican Rich Perlberg.
44. Oakland County Commissioner Jim Runestad seems to be the favorite of both the Tea Party and establishment in this safe district.
52. Gretchen Driskell beat Mark Ouimet by 6% in 2012.  John Hochstetler is running this time, but it isn't clear how serious his campaign is.
56. Republicans Irma Kubiske and Jason Sheppard will compete to face dem Tom Redmond for the seat of Dale Zorn, who is running for state senate.
57. Nancy Jenkins, who was reelected by 5% in 2012, will face dem Sharon Wimple.
59. John Bippus has the Right to Life endorsement and is probably the favorite to win this open seat.
60. Three dems, Kalamazoo County Commissioner David Buskirk, an old-school union dem, gay progressive campaign strategist Jon Hoadley, and black Kalamazoo Township Trustee Patricia Goodacre, will compete for this safe dem seat.
61. Republican Kalamazoo county commissioners Phil Stinchcomb and Brandt Iden face off in this classic Tea Party versus establishment battle.
62. Republican Calhoun County Commissioner Art Kale and Dr. John Bizon will compete to face one of three dems in this lean dem seat vacated by Kate Segal.
63. Republican Marshall school board president Vic Potter, who is endorsed by Right to Life, and moderate Kalamazoo County Commissioner David Maturen will compete for the seat of Speaker Jase Bolger.  Dem Bill Farmer, who almost upset Bolger in 2012 due to the Roy Schmidt controversy, will run again.
65. Six Republicans and two dems will compete for the seat of Mike Shirkey, who will run for state senate.
71. Dem Theresa Abed upset Deb Schaunessy by 7% in 2012.  She will face Iraq war veteran Tom Barrett, who is a strong conservative.
76. Dem Winnie Brinks, who beat scandal-tainted dem-turned-R Roy Schmidt in 2012, will face one of three Republicans.
79. Moderate state rep. Al Pscholka will face Tea Party nurse Cindy Duran in the primary.
80. Tea Party leader Cindy Gamrat will face Mary Whiteford and two others in the primary.
82. Todd Courser, who almost was elected MIGOP chairman in 2013, is one of four Republican candidates here.
84. This is the best chance for Republicans to pick up a seat, and where the primary will make the most difference.  In 2012, dem former state rep Terry Brown (2006-2010, 2012-2014) won back his old seat.  He defeated Huron County drain commissioner Dan Grimshaw, who defeated ethically challenged incumbent Republican Kurt Damrow in the primary.  Brown is term-limited and running for state senate.  Damrow and Grimshaw are among seven Republicans seeking this seat, which is the most Republican seat held by a dem.
91. Former state rep. Holly Hughes, who was defeated by 0.8% by dem Colleen LaMonte in 2012, will seek a rematch.
98. Gary Glenn, a conservative activist supporting Right to Work and traditional marriage, faces Karl Ieuter in the Republican primary.
101. Ray Franz, who was reelected by 2% in 2012, will seek a final term.
106. Peter Pettalia, who was reelected by 7% in 2012, will seek a final term.
110. Scott Dianda, a fairly conservative dem who beat Matt Huuki by 3% in 2012, will face Bob Michaels.

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