Analysis of 6th District Congressional Race

Congressman Fred Upton was nominated for a 13th term in the 6th congressional district on Tuesday. The local media has spun this another easy victory for the invincible Upton. But Upton is smart enough to know better. Jack came closer to defeating Upton than any other primary challenger than he has had.

Let's break down the numbers.

http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/10PRI/06006000.html
http://www.electionmagic.com/results/mi/K39results/K3900101001.htm

County_______ TOTAL Jack Fred__ Jack %

ALLEGAN____ 10,760 4,139_ 5,024 45.2%
BERRIEN_____ 21,120 7,399 10,129 42.2%
CALHOUN______ 974__ 289__ 543 34.7%
CASS________ 4,944_ 1,929_ 2,084 48.1%
KALAMAZOO_ 36,114 11,380 15,492 42.3%
ST. JOSEPH___ 6,146_ 2,598_ 2,762 48.5%
VAN BUREN__ 11,509_ 3,810_ 5,971 39.0%

Totals_______ 91,567 31,544 42,005 42.9%

Breaking down Kalamazoo County, we find the following.
61st district___ 18313_ 5828_ 7660 43.2%
60th district___ 10116_ 2100_ 3379 38.3%
63rd district____ 9853_ 3386_ 4364 43.7%

The numbers are surprising. One might think that Jack's strength would be in the 61st district, which he represented for six years, but his performance there was about average. His best performance was in St. Jospeh and Cass counties, which are largely farming territory. It isn't clear why this would be. Fred hasn't done anything to upset farmers that I know of. Jack also got 42% in Berrien County, which is shocking given this is Fred's base. This is far better than Dale Shugars did there in 2002. Aside from the anomoly of Calhoun (only three precincts), Fred did best in the city of Kalamazoo (moderates, democrat crossovers) and VanBuren (??). In Kalamazoo County, Jack won Alamo 1 and 2, Cooper 3 and 4, Prairie Ronde, Schoolcraft 4, Texas 1, and Kalamazoo 14.

Were democrat crossovers a factor? Doubtless there were some, but if there were a lot, turnout would have been higher in the city of Kalamazoo and outside Kalamazoo County where there weren't democrat legislative primaries.

http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/02PRI/06006000.html

Compare Jack to previous Upton challengers.
Year Challenger Challenger %
2010 Jack Hoogendyk_ 43%
2002 Dale Shugars___ 32%
1990 (don't remember) 40%

Jack got 10000 almost more votes than Dale did in 2002, while Fred got about 2000 fewer.

All of this suggests that voters were not so much pro-Jack as anti-incumbent. We have seen a rising anti-incumbent sentiment nationally. It was not obvious locally before the election, but it was manifested at the polls. Also interesting is the fact that Upton's proteges did much better than him, with John Proos and Al Pscholka cruising to easy victories.

It is interesting to contrast Jack and Dale's campaigns. Both were heavily outspent, but Shugars had something like three times as much money to work with. Both were endorsed by Right to Life. The NRA endorsed Shugars in 2002 and Upton in 2010. Shugars had many candidates and a few elected officials endorse him (Jerry VanderRoest, Jack, Fulton Sheen, Margaret O'Brien, Nasim Ansari, John Zull, etc.). Jack had no elected officials endorse him that I know of other than his wife Erin, who is a Texas Township Trustee. Most of those previously listed endorsed Upton or remained neutral. Jack had support from the Tea Party movement.

So what next? Jack had a strong enough showing to remain a plausible future contender. Redistricting will change the boundaries of all Michigan's congressional districts for 2012, when Michigan will lose a seat. Unless the 6th district is completely dismantled or merged with another district, it will have to expand into neighboring counties such as Allegan, Barry, Calhoun, or Branch. Adding new territory would make the district more competitive in the primary.

Jack announced that he would run only 3 1/2 months before the primary election. If he runs again, he should start much earlier. His showing this time may be strong enough to attract more funding, perhaps from a group like the Club for Growth. It is also possible that some other Republican who thinks Upton is vulnerable might challenge him next time.