Governor: Whitmer 54.47%, Dixon 43.94% For comparison, Whitmer won by 9.5% in 2018. In retrospect, this was never close. Dixon, tried, but she was a weak candidate.
SOS: Benson 55.86%, Karamo 41.93% Karamo was a disaster.
Attorney General: Nessel 53.15%, DePerno 44.55% Nessel was the weakest of the three D incumbents.
Congress. The congressional delegation will be 6R, 7D. The current delegation is 7R, 7D. A gerrymandered map helped Ds win districts 3 and 8.
1. 60-37 for Jack Bergman
2. 64-34 for John Moolenaar
3. John Gibbs 41.94% Hillary Scholten 54.84% This seat was gerrymandered to elect a D. Gibbs was a very weak candidate who won thanks to Trump's endorsement. Peter Meijer might have kept it close, but it still would have been tough.
4. Bill Huizenga 54.59% Joseph Alfonso 42.23%
5. 63-35 for Tim Walberg
6. 34-66 for Debbie Dingell
7. Tom Barrett 46.38% Elissa Slotkin 51.67% Barrett ran a good campaign, but it wasn't enough to overcome the drag at the top of the ticket.
8. Paul Junge 42.83% Dan Kildee 53.09% This is still a D district, though moving right.
9. 64-33 for Lisa McClain
10. John James 48.80% Carl Marlinga 48.31% This was unexpectedly tight, perhaps due to infighting in Macomb County.
11. 39-61 for Haley Stevens
12. 26-71 for Rashida Tlaib
13. 24-71 for Shri Thanedar
State Senate. The senate will be 18R, 20D. This is the first D majority since 1983. The current delegation is 22-16. A gerrymandered map helped Ds win extra districts in Lansing, Ann Arbor, and the tri-cities areas.
4. Houston James 44.66% Darrin Camilerri 55.34% Downriver may realign some day, but not yet.
9. Mike Webber 50.35%, Padma Kuppa 49.65% (795 vote margin) Finally, a close win.
11. Mike MacDonald 47.32% Veronica Klinefelt 52.68% Loss in a gerrymandered district.
12. Pam Hornberger 49.87% Kevin Hertel 50.13% (313 vote margin) Surprise loss in a district won by Trump.
13. Jason Rhines 42.83% Rosemary Bayer 57.17%
14. Tim Golding 44.11% Sue Shink 55.89%
28. Daylen Howard 41.95% Sam Singh 55.81%
30. Mark Huizenga 49.19%, David LaGrand 48.87% (405 vote margin) Close win in Grand Rapids, which is trending D.
32. Jon Bumstead 52.83%, Terry Sabo 47.17%
35. Annette Glenn 46.63% Kristin McDonald Rivet 53.37% Tough loss in a gerrymandered district.
37. John Damoose 55.33%, Barbara Conley 42.94%
State House. The house will be 54R, 56D. This is the first D majority since 2010. In 2020, the elected delegation was 58R, 52D. A gerrymandered map helped Ds win extra districts in Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Grand Rapids.
20. Albert Mansour 43.36% Noah Arbit 56.64%
21. David Staudt 42.27% Kelly Breen 56.43%
22. Cathryn Neracher 45.75% Matt Kolezar 54.25%
27. Bob Howey 49.22% Jamie Churches 50.78% (640 vote margin)
28. Jamie Thompson 50.99%, Robert Kull 49.01% (745 vote margin)
29. James DeSana 51.48%, Alex Garza 48.52% This was the only defeat of a D incumbent.
31. Dale Biniecki 47.74% Reggie Miller 52.26%
The four Wayne/Monroe districts (27, 28, 29, 31) split 2R, 2D. The attempted gerrymander didn't completely work here.
38. Kevin Whiteford 49.48% Joey Andrews 50.52% (398 vote margin) Whiteford overperformed, but the absurd lakeshore gerrymander did its job.
40. Kelly Sackett 41.37% Christine Morse 58.63% Kalamazoo's suburbs continue to move left.
42. Matt Hall 54.99% Justin Mendoza 45.01% Hall will be the house minority leader.
44. Dave Morgan 47.75% Jim Haadsma 52.25% A third loss for Morgan, who got 48-49% in the previous two elections. Perhaps Rs should run a different candidate here?
46. Kathy Schmaltz 54.37% Maurice Imhoff 45.63% Imhoff was disowned by the Ds, but still was competitive.
48. Jason Woolford 45.80% Jennifer Conlin 53.08% Weak candidate in a swing district.
49. Ann Bollin 55.78%, Christina Kafkakis 44.22%
51. Matt Maddock 57.94%, Sarah May Seward 42.06%
54. Donni Steele 51.17% Shadia Martini 48.83% Rs had the right candidate in a district drawn well for the GOP.
55. Mark Tisdel 51.80% Patricia Bernard 48.20%
56. Mark Gunn 42.07% Sharon MacDonell 57.93%
57. Thomas Kuhn 52.64% Aisha Farooqi 47.36%
58. Michelle Smith 48.67% Nate Shannon 51.33% Smith should try again here.
61. Mike Aiello 47.98% Denise Mentzer 52.02% This area is moving right.
62. Alicia St Germaine 53.42% Michael Brooks 46.58%
68. David Martin 54.73% Cheri Hardmon 45.27% Nice margin in a district that would have been close to safe D a decade ago.
69. Jesse Couch 41.04% Jasper Martus 56.31% Surprisingly close in a district that is moving right.
71. Brian BeGole 57.74% Mark Zacharda 42.26%
73. Norm Shinkle 42.67% Julie Brixie 57.33%
76. Jeremy Whittum 44.78% Angela Witwer 55.22% Whittum barely raised any money.
80. Jeffrey Johnson 43.70% Phil Skaggs 56.30%
81. Lynn Afendoulis 44.33% Rachel Hood 55.67%
83. Lisa DeKryger 44.64% John Fitzgerald 52.76%
84. Mike Malinowski 44.45% Carol Glanville 55.55%
The Grand Rapids area is gerrymandered to have 5 D districts, instead of the 2-3 D districts a fair map would have. Note that the R percentages in 80, 81, 83, and 84 are all 43-44%--drawn to be just out of reach.
86. Nancy DeBoer 56.19% Larry Jackson 43.81%
88. Greg VanWoerkom 56.17% Christine Baker 41.87%
92. Jerry Neyer 55.49% Anthony Feig 42.45%
96. Timothy Beson 55.32% Kim Coonan 44.68%
103. Jack O’Malley 48.47% Betsy Coffia 49.84% (765 vote margin) This was the only loss by an R incumbent. The seat was gerrymandered to elect a D.
107. Neal Friske 56.59% Jodi Decker 43.41%
109. Melody Wagner 47.02% Jenn Hill 52.98% This district is drifting right, but not quite there yet. Considering this is Wagner's fourth loss, perhaps a new candidate would help.
Supreme Court: 34% Bernstein (D), 24% Zahra (R), 22% Bolden (D), 13% Hudson The two incumbents win reelection. Ds hold a 4-3 majority on the court.
State Board of Education: Ds took both slots, with a 74K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
University of Michigan: Ds took both slots, with a 52K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
Michigan State: Ds took both slots, with a 11K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
Wayne State: Ds took both slots, with a 64K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
State Board of Education: Ds took both slots, with a 74K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
University of Michigan: Ds took both slots, with a 52K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
Michigan State: Ds took both slots, with a 11K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
Wayne State: Ds took both slots, with a 64K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
My ratings turned out to be pretty accurate, though slightly too R. Every race I had at safe for a party was won by that party. The only lean race I missed was senate 12. For congress, the tossups had margins of -5 and -10. For senate, the tossups had margins of -5 and -7. The lean Ds had margins of -10 to -14, and the lean Rs had margins of -0.3 to 6.
Rs lost all tossups except house 28 and 29. My state house tossups had margins from -11 to 3. My lean R races had margins from 2 to 13. My lean D races had margins from -4 to -17. The closest margins in race I had at safe were 12 (senate 37) and 10 (house 42). My lean ratings for Congress had margins of 6, 16, 3.6.
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