National Redistricting Preview

With the release of the 2010 census of state populations, the number of members of congress each state is allocated is now set. Next year we will see the decennial process of redistricting commence.

Redistricting 2010: Who Controls What
A Preview of 2012 Redistricting
Dave's Redistricting App

The posts above explain who controls the redistricting process in each state and what is likely to happen. The analysis is pretty good, though this blog would take issue with it in a few cases. 'Dave's Redistricting App' allows you to try your own hand at political mapmaking. This blog may post its own maps in the future.

The following table contains our projections for what will happen in redistricting. The second column says who controls the process with
R = Republican
D = democrat
S = Split control
C = 'Independent' commission

The third column gives the old number of districts for the state. The fourth column says how many are gained or lost. The fifth column gives the current (post-election) R/D split of the congressional delegation.

The final three column contain the best case, most likely, and worst case scenarios for Republicans of gains or losses due to redistricting. Note that this does not account for gains or losses for other reasons.

Note also that a state gaining or losing a seat leads to a gain or loss of half a seat. This follows the same reasoning that leads to saying that a baseball team leads its division by half a game. That is, if a democrat is eliminated in Michigan and a Republican is added in Georgia, Republicans have gained only one seat, not two.

Here is the table.

State Control #Dist. Change Now Best Likely Worst
AL ___ R ___ 7 ___ 0 ___ 6\1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
AK ___ S ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1\0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
AZ ___ C ___ 8 ___ 1 ___ 5\3 __ 1.5 __ 0.5 _ -1.5
AR ___ D ___ 4 ___ 0 ___ 3\1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ -1
CA ___ C __ 53 ___ 0 __ 33\20 __ 5 ___ 0 ___ -5
CO ___ S ___ 7 ___ 0 ___ 4\3 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ -1
CN ___ D ___ 5 ___ 0 ___ 0\5 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
DE ___ D ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0\1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
FL ___ R __ 25 ___ 2 ___ 19\6 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0
GA ___ R __ 13 ___ 1 ___ 8\5 __ 2.5 __ 1.5 __ 0.5
HI ___ D ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0\2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
ID ___ C ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2\0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
IL ___ D __ 19 ___ -1 __ 11\8 __ -0.5 _ -2.5 _ -3.5
IN ___ R ___ 9 ___ 0 ___ 6\3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1
IA ___ C ___ 5 ___ -1 ___ 2\3 __ 0.5 __ 0.5 _ -0.5
KS ___ R ___ 4 ___ 0 ___ 4\0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
KY ___ S ___ 6 ___ 0 ___ 4\2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
LA ___ S ___ 7 ___ -1 ___ 6\1 __ -0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5
ME ___ R ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0\2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0
MD ___ D ___ 8 ___ 0 ___ 2\6 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ -1
MA ___ D __ 10 __ -1 __ 0\10 __ 0.5 __ 0.5 __ 0.5
MI ___ R ___ 15 __ -1 __ 9\6 __ 1.5 __ 0.5 ___ 0.5
MN ___ S ___ 8 ___ 0 ___ 4\4 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
MS ___ S ___ 4 ___ 0 ___ 3\1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
MO ___ S ___ 9 __ -1 ___ 6\3 __ 0.5 __ 0.5 _ -0.5
MT ___ S ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1\0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
NE ___ R ___ 3 ___ 0 ___ 3\0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
NV ___ S ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2\1 __ 0.5 __ -0.5 _ -0.5
NH ___ R ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2\0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
NJ ___ C ___ 13 __ -1 ___ 6\7 __ 1.5 __ 0.5 _ -0.5
NM ___ S ___ 3 ___ 0 ___ 1\2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
NY ___ S ___ 29 __ -2 __ 8\21 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ -1
NC ___ R ___ 13 __ 0 ___ 6\7 ___ 4 ___ 2 ___ 1
ND ___ R ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1\0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
OH ___ R ___ 18 __ -2 __ 13\5 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ -1
OK ___ R ___ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4\1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0
OR ___ S ___ 5 ___ 0 ___ 1\4 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0
PA ___ R ___ 19 __ -1 __ 12\7 __ 2.5 __ 1.5 __ 0.5
RI ___ D ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0\2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
SC ___ R ___ 6 ___ 1 ___ 5\1 __ 0.5 __ 0.5 __ 0.5
SD ___ R ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1\0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
TN ___ R ___ 9 ___ 0 ___ 7\2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0
TX ___ R ___ 32 __ 4 ___ 23\9 __ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0
UT ___ R ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2\1 __ 1.5 __ 0.5 __ 0.5
VT ___ D ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0\1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
VA ___ S ___ 11 ___ 0 ___ 8\3 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
WA ___ C ___ 9 ___ 1 ___ 4\5 __ 1.5 __ 0.5 _ -1.5
WV ___ D ___ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2\1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ -1
WI ___ R ___ 8 ___ 0 ___ 5\3 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0
WY ___ R ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1\0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0
Total______435 ___ 0 _ 242\193 _ 35 __ 9 ___ -15

Thus our best projection is a GOP gain of nine seats, with quite a bit of variation between the best and worst case scenarios. Republicans can also shore up some vulnerable incumbents.