Friday, January 03, 2025

January 2025 Judiciary News

Biden in Review:

Let's review Biden's judicial appointments over the past 4 years.

Supreme Court:  Breyer retired, and was replaced by Ketanji Brown Jackson.

Circuit judges:  Biden filled 45 circuit court seats (3 in 2024).  This compares to President Trump’s appointment of 54 Circuit judges in his first term. Seven R-appointed judges retired under Biden and two others who left very late in Trump's term were replaced by Biden.  Four (Torruella, Hall, White, and Rovner) were liberal, and 5 (Howard, Smith, Gibbons, Flaum, Kanne) were moderate to conservative.

Eight Biden appointees are in red states (TN, IN, LA, SC, TX, KS, TN, FL) and 3 in purple states (PA, MT, OH).  Five (IN, LA, SC, TX, KS) had support from home state R senators, and 6 (2 TN, PA, MT, OH, FL) did not.  Only 5 of 45 circuit appointees is a white male.  The most votes for a circuit judge was 80 for Irma Ramirez, and the smallest margin was 1 for Jennifer Sung and Andre Mathis.  Biden’s appointed the most judges (8) to the 9th Circuit.  The largest proportional impact was on the 1st Circuit, where Biden appointed 4 of 6 judges.  Biden did not appoint any judges to the 8th Circuit.

There are 4 current and future vacancies that can be filled by Trump (one judge could un-retire).  There are 26 R-appointed and 14 D-appointed circuit court judges who are eligible for senior status but have not yet taken it.

District Judges:  Biden appointed 187 district judges (61 in 2024).  This compares to President Trump’s appointment of 174 District judges in his first term.  23 (IA, 3 IN, ID, 3 LA, 2 OK, 3 TX, SC, 4 FL, WY, NB, UT, 2 SD) appointees are in red states, and 10 (4 OH, 4 PA, ME, WI) are in purple states.

Six district judges were confirmed by voice vote.  Ann Marie Allen (D-UT) was approved 100-0.  Aside from them, the most votes was 90 for Leon Schydlower (WD-TX) and Camela Theeler (D-SD).  Twelve judges were confirmed by 1-vote margins. 

There are 37 current district court vacancies (35 red, 0 purple, 2 blue) and 4 future district court vacancies (2 red, 1 purple, 1 blue).  Eight red states (NC, AL, MS, TN, AR, MO, KS, AK) and one purple state (MT) had no Biden appointees and at least one vacancy, while two red states (KY, ND) and one purple state (WV) had no vacancies.

Review:  Thomas Jipping reviews Biden's appointees in the context of the history of judicial confirmations under previous presidents.

Review:  David Lat assesses Biden's appointees in terms of diversity, ideology, and influence.

Review:  John Doe has a chart of all federal judges who had multiple former clerks appointed by Biden to the bench.

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Senate Judiciary Committee:  The committee has several new members.  Adam Schiff (D-CA) succeeded appointed Senator Laphonza Butler (D-CA) on the committee after winning her senate seat.  Jon Ossoff (D-GA) will no longer be on the committee; he notably opposed the nomination of Sarah Netburn to SD-NY in 2024.  Tom Cotton (R-AR) will leave the committee.  Mike Crapo (R-ID), Eric Schmitt (R-MO), and Katie Britt (R-AL) will join the committee.

Blue slip:  D senators claim that they are fighting to retain the blue slip for district judges.  However, there is no indication that it is in danger, as Senator Chuck Grassley says he is keeping it.

Supreme Court:  David Lat identifies four appeals court judges as leading contenders for a future Supreme Court vacancy.  They are Amul Thapar (6th Circuit), James Ho (5th Circuit), Andy Oldham (5th Circuit), and Patrick Bumatay (9th Circuit).

Nominations:
TBA

The Federal Judiciary:

Judgeships: President Biden signed a bill to make all 10 temporary federal district court judgeships permanent after it passed the House by a 390-0 vote.  The judgeships are located in WD-NC, ED-TX, ED-MO, D-AZ, D-HI, CD-CA, D-KS, D-NM, SD-FL, and ND-AL.

Judgeships:  President Biden vetoed the JUDGES Act after it passed the House of Representatives by a 236-173 vote.  Biden dubiously claimed that new judgeships were unjustified, but it seems more likely just didn't want President Trump to make some appointments.  The bill would have created 66 new judgeships over the next 12 years.

Supreme Court:  David Lat reports on Supreme Court clerk hiring.  Notably, he infers that no justices are planning to retire in 2025.

4th Circuit:  Justice James Wynn has revoked his senior status declaration, presumably to stop his seat from being filled by Trump.  Ed Whelan argues that he can do so, but that it is disreputable.

Revocations:  Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) criticized judges who withdraw their senior status declarations after an election.  He suggested they may face ethics complaints due to the perception of partisan bias.  Judges James Wynn (4th Circuit), Algenon Marbley (SD-OH) and Max Cogburn (WD-NC) have withdrawn their senior status declarations since the November election.

D-MA:  Senior district Judge Michael Ponsor (D-MA) was admonished by a federal judge for an ethics violation due to writing an essay criticizing the flying of flags with political messages.  This was an apparent reference to the controversy about the flags flown by Justice Alito's wife.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 45 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past month are listed below.
ND-AL: Scott Coogler (W) 1/2/25 (retired)

State Supreme Courts:

Alaska:  Governor Mike Dunleavy appointed lawyer Aimee Oravec to the Alaska Supreme Court seat vacated by Chief Justice Peter Maassen on January 14.  She is the "lead attorney for Doyon Utilities LLC, which is part of the regional Native corporation for the Interior."

Arizona:  The Arizona Commission on Appellate Court Appointments forwarded five candidates for the Arizona Supreme Court to Governor Katie Hobbs (D).  The 5 candidates include 3 Ds and 2 independents. Hobbs will appoint the replacement for Justice Robert Brutinel.

Arkansas:  Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders appointed J. Cody Hiland to replace Courtney Rae Hudson, who was elected to a different seat on the Arkansas Supreme Court.  Hiland is a current justice on the court, who was appointed to replace another justice, but was unable to run for reelection.  Sanders also appointed Nicholas Bronni to replace Karen Baker, who was elected chief justice.  Bronni has been Solicitor General of Arkansas since 2018, and previously clerked for Jay Bybee (9th Circuit).

Kansas/Missouri:  Legislators in both Kansas and Missouri are discussing changing judicial selection in their states.  Missouri is considering direct election of judges, while Kansas is considering gubernatorial appointment.

Mississippi:  State Sen. Jenifer Branning (R) won 50.6-49.4 over incumbent Justice Jim Kitchens in the November 26 runoff election.  The result was delayed for over a week due to late-arriving mail ballots.

Nebraska:  Governor Jim Pillen (R) appointed Jason Bergevin to district 5 (rural southeast) of the Nebraska Supreme Court.  Bergevin became a district judge in 2022 and previously worked for the Nebraska Attorney General.  Bergevin was one of three nominees to succeed Jeffrey Funke, who was appointed Chief Justice of the Nebraska Supreme Court.  

Oklahoma:  Justice Yvonne Kauger retired on December 1 after losing a retention election, but before her term was scheduled to end.  Governor Kevin Stitt will appoint her replacement, who must live in the fourth district (western OK).  There are 14 applicants for the position.  One notable applicant is Mithun Mansinghani, who was Oklahoma solicitor general 2017-2022.

Texas:  Chief Justice Nathan Hecht (R) was age-limited on December 31.  He was first elected to the court in 1988, and was appointed chief justice by Rick Perry in 2013.  Greg Abbott will get his sixth appointment to the court.

Numbers and Trivia:

The Presidents who appointed chief judges of the 13 appeals courts are W (2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, Fed), and Obama (1, 4, 9, DC).  No new chief judges are guaranteed until 2027, though some may turn over sooner due to judges taking senior status.

Recent Judges:  Adam Feldman compares judges appointed by W, Obama, Trump, and Biden.  He lists which courts got the most appointees from each President, and considers law school, sex, race, and previous experience.

History:

On Ed Whelan's Substack, "Confirmation Tales", recent posts deal with nominations of lower court judges.
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Sunday, December 01, 2024

December 2024 Judiciary News

Nominations, Hearings, Confirmations:

Lame Duck:  Russell Wheeler analyzes the prospects for Biden to confirm judges in the lame duck session.  The article has several tables summarizing confirmations in Biden's term.

Lame Duck:  Senators struck a deal on judicial confirmations in the lame duck session.  R senators agreed not to obstruct votes on 13 district court nominees.  In exchange, the senate will not hold votes on four appeals court nominees.  They are
1st Circuit: Julia Lipez (replacing William Kayatta)
3rd Circuit: Adeel Mangi (replacing Joseph Greenaway)
4th Circuit: Ryan Park (replacing James Wynn)
6th Circuit: Karla Campbell (replacing Jane Stranch)
Mangi and Park definitely didn't have the votes for confirmation, and it isn't clear whether Lipez and Campbell did.  Notably, Wynn (age 70) and Stranch (age 71) can revoke their senior status declarations, so we don't know whether President Trump will be able to fill their seats.

Sotomayor:  Some Ds reportedly tried to encourage Justice Sotomayor to retire before President Trump takes office again.  She did not do so.

Supreme Court:  Ed Whelan summarizes the implications of Trump's victory on the Supreme Court.  He predicts that Justice Alito will retire in 2025 and Justice Thomas will retire in 2026.

Circuit Courts:  Ed Whelan summarizes the potential for vacancies and changes in ideological composition of the circuit courts.  It is unlikely that President Trump will appoint nearly as many judges as he did in his first term, or as Biden did in his term.  Whelan has separate posts on the Federal, DC, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th Circuits.

Second term:  Senator Chuck Grassley is expected to chair the Senate Judiciary Committee.  Trump may seek to appoint more conservative judges, but there will be fewer vacancies to fill than in his first term.

3rd Circuit:  Judge Walter Stapleton passed away on November 23.  He was appointed to D-DE by Nixon in 1970 and appointed to the 3rd Circuit by Reagan in 1985.  He took senior status in 1999.

11th Circuit:  Embry Kidd was confirmed to a Florida seat on the 11th Circuit by a 49-45 vote.  Five R senators, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Bill Hagerty, Mike Braun, and Steve Daines missed the vote.  This generated a backlash from the right, including from Governor Ron DeSantis.

The Federal Judiciary:

Judgeships:  Judges Timothy Corrigan (MD-FL), Troy Nunley (ED-CA), and Randy Crane (SD-TX) visited Capital Hill to advocate for a bill to create 66 more federal judgeships.  The bill previously passed the Senate, and House Judiciary Committee chairman Jim Jordan hopes to pass the bill soon.  However, some Ds who previously supported the bill may not now that President Trump won the election.  A breakdown of where and when the judgeships would be created is in this table.

Revocations:  Judges Algenon Marbley (SD-OH) and Max Cogburn (WD-NC) have withdrawn their senior status declarations.  Marbley is a Clinton appointee and Cogburn is an Obama appointee.  They presumably don't want their seats filled by Trump.

Vacancy Declarations:  There are now 59 current and future judicial vacancies.  New vacancies over the past two months are listed below.
SD-NY: Valerie Caproni (Obama) 1/??/25 (senior)
WD-NC: Frank Whitney (W) 12/1/24 (senior)

State Supreme Courts:

Alaska:  The Alaska Judicial Council nominated three candidates for the seat on the Alaska Supreme Court to be vacated by Chief Justice Peter Maassen on January 14, 2025.  They are assistant attorney general Kate Demarest, Anchorage judge Josie Garton, and lawyer Aimee Oravec.  The next justice will be selected by Governor Mike Dunleavy.

Arizona:  The Arizona Commission on Appellate Court Appointments will interview 8 of 17 applicants  for the Arizona Supreme Court seat vacated by Justice Robert Brutinel.  The 8 candidates include 6 Ds and 2 independents.  The commission will advance 3-5 candidates to Governor Katie Hobbs (D), who will appoint his replacement.

Louisiana:  Louisiana Supreme Court Justice James Genovese retired on August 4 to become president of Northwestern State University.  He was first elected to the court in 2016.  Governor Jeff Landry (R) will appoint his replacement.

Nebraska:  Governor Jim Pillen (R) appointed Justice Jeffrey Funke as Chief Justice of the Nebraska Supreme Court.  He was one of four applicants to replace Michael Heavican, who retired on October 31.  Funke was appointed by Pete Ricketts in 2016.  Pillen will need to appoint a justice to district 5 (rural southeast), Funke's former seat.

New Hampshire:  Justice Hantz Marconi has been indicted for attempting to influence Governor Sununu to drop an investigation into her husband.  Geno Marconi has been on leave from the New Hampshire Port Authority since April, and was later indicted for witness tampering and illegally accessing motor vehicle records.  The legislature does not appear likely to initiate impeachment proceedings against Hantz Marconi this year.

History:

On Ed Whelan's Substack, "Confirmation Tales", recent posts deal with nominations of lower court judges.

Resources:
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Thursday, November 07, 2024

Michigan 2024 Election Results

2024 Michigan Election Results

President: Trump 49.8% Harris 48.3%, Other 1.9%

Senate:  Rogers 48.3% Slotkin 48.6%  Frustratingly close loss.

Congress.  The congressional delegation will be 7R, 6D.  Rs picked up district 7.

1. 59-38 for Jack Bergman 
2. 65-32 for John Moolenaar 
3. Hudson 44 Scholten 54 This gerrymandered seat isn't winnable in this form.
4. 56-43 for Bill Huizenga 
5. 66-33 for Tim Walberg 
6. 35-62 for Debbie Dingell 
7. Tom Barrett 50.3% Curtis Hertel 46.6% PICKUP for Barrett after losing by 5% in 2022.
8. Paul Junge 44.6% Kristen Rivet 51.3% After three consecutive losses for Junge, time for a different candidate.  There will be a special election for Rivet's senate seat.
9. 67-30 for Lisa McClain 
10. John James 51 Carl Marlinga 45 Decent improvement for James in this rematch.
11. 40-58 for Haley Stevens 
12. 25-70 for Rashida Tlaib 
13. 25-69 for Shri Thanedar 

State House.  The house will be 58R, 52D.  Rs picked up four seats, ending the D majority after two  years.  They overcame the gerrymandered map.

2. Kokinda 42 Liberati 52 Downriver is getting more competitive.
13. Singer 46.3 Xiong 50.8  This may be worth targeting in the future.
20. Cowley 47 Arbit 53 
21. Konesky 43 Kelly Breen 55
22. Stathakis 47.5 Matt Kolezar 52.5
27. Linting 52.2 Churches 47.8 PICKUP
28. Thompson 54.4, Robinson 45.6
29. DeSana 55 Wright 45
31. Biniecki 49.4 Reggie Miller 50.6 (686 votes)  Missed opportunity?
38. Whiteford 46.9 Joey Andrews 53.1
40. Sackett 44 Longjohn 56 Modest improvement in a once-Republican district.
42. Matt Hall 57 Marsman 43  Hall is in line to be Speaker this upcoming term.
44. Frisbie 51.9 Haadsma 48.1  PICKUP in a district where Rs found a better candidate.
46. Schmaltz 52.1 Mahoney 47.9  Only a small decline in a district where Ds disowned their candidate two years ago.
48. Ignatowski 47.1 Conlin 51.5 
54. Donni Steele 52.4 Shadia Martini 47.6 Districts 54 and 55 continue to be a concern.
55. Tisdel 53.7 Bernard 46.3
57. Kuhn 57 Farooqi 43
58. Robinson 53.2 Shannon 46.8 PICKUP thanks to big R margin in Sterling Heights.
61. Wojtowicz 49.3 Mentzer 50.7 (715 votes)
62. St Germaine 56 Levine-Woodman 44 
68. David Martin 54 Schlinker 46
69. Duveneck 44 Martus 56
73. Rockey 45 Brixie 55
76. Shaver 47.9 Witwer 52.1
80. Sage 43 Phil Skaggs 57
81. Youngquist 45 Wooden 55
83. Brann 46.9 Fitzgerald 53.1
84. Wetzel 45 Glanville 55
The Grand Rapids area is gerrymandered to have 5 D districts, instead of the 2-3 D districts a fair map would have.  Note that the R percentages in 80, 81, 83, and 84 are all 43-47%--drawn to be just out of reach.
86. Nancy DeBoer 56 Klomparens 44
92. Neyer 58 Odykirk 42
96. Beson 60 Howard 40
103. Trombley 47.2 Coffia 52.8
109. Bohnak 51.3 Jenn Hill 48.7 PICKUP with a better candidate than the previous 4-time loser.

Supreme Court:  
Full term: Fink (R) 39 Thomas (D) 61
Partial term: O'Grady (R) 38 Bolden (D incumbent) 62
Ds will now hold a 5-2 majority on the court.  Ds did much better at getting their voters to vote in this nonpartisan race.

COA District 2: Ackerman 55 Willis 45
Ackerman had many R endorsements (and some Ds).

State Board of Education:  R incumbents Snyder and McMillin were reelected.  There was a 74K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
University of Michigan:  Meyers (R) and Illich (D incumbent) won.  The other R finished last.
Michigan State:  Rs Balow and Maday won.  There was a 14K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
Wayne State:  Rs Busuito and Reddy won.  There was a 66K vote margin between the second and third candidates.

My ratings turned out to be pretty accurate.  Every race I had at safe for a party was won by that party.  The only lean race I missed was house 109. I predicted all tossups correctly.  For congress, the tossup had a margin of 4, and the leans had margins of 6 and -7.
My state house tossups had margins of 4, 4, 4, 6, and -6.  My lean R races had margins from 5 to 14.  My lean D races had margins from 4 to -10.  The closest margin in race I had at safe was -6 in district 20.

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Tuesday, November 05, 2024

2024 Michigan State House Races

Last updated November 4, 2024.

All 110 seats in the Michigan house are up for election in 2024.  Democrats won a 56-54 majority in 2024, thanks to a newly gerrymandered state house map.  Rs controlled the house 2010-22.  

Michigan's 2022 state house map was drawn by Michigan's Independent Redistricting Commission.  The commission drew lines that split many counties and split Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, and the Lansing area to benefit Ds.  Other districts have strange shapes for no clear reason.  

The commission drew many districts that combined parts of Detroit with neighboring suburbs to dilute black voters.  This resulted in a lawsuit where a federal court threw out the Detroit-area districts and had them redrawn.  The new map has 8 black-majority districts based in Detroit/Southfield (4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 16, 18), up from only 6 in the old map.  There are three districts between 40% and 50% black (10, 12, 17).  Two districts are completely in Detroit.  These changes had minimal partisan impact, with only district 13 becoming competitive.

Michigan Redistricting: State House Map Approved




Interactive versions of the map are available at Dave's Redistricting and MICRC.

Michigan State House Map-Dave's Redistricting
Michigan State House Map-MICRC


In 2022, voters passed changes to Michigan's term limits law.  Limits of 6 years in the state house and 8 in the state senate were replaced with a total of 12 years in both houses of the legislature.  This was sold as limiting legislators' time in office, but the practical effect is that most legislators will stay in office longer.  

This year, no state legislator is term limited except one who was previously a state senator.  After many cycles with 30-50 open seats, this year there are only 8 open seats.  Five legislators are retiring, apparently to prepare for state senate campaigns in 2026 (leaving after two terms allows for two state senate terms).  Two legislators are running for judgeships.

With term limits being extended, several previously term limited legislators are seeking state house seats again.  This is the case in districts 34, 83, 93.

Consider the districts in detail.  The election data for each district is the R candidates for 2022 state house results (R-D) (excluding districts 1-14), President 2016 (P16), Attorney General 2018 (AG18), Governor 2018 (G18), and President 2020 (P20).  (There was 1-5% of the vote for third party candidates in these races.)  Additional information on the races comes from Gongwer and RepublicanMichigander.

The 2022 map (Detroit area):


The 2024 map (Detroit area):

1. [S Detroit] Safe D
P16: 10 G18: 9 AG18: 9 P20: 13
This district has a strong claim to be the most diverse in Michigan, and has successively had black, Hispanic, Jewish, Muslim, Chinese, and black representatives.  Tyrone Carter (D) was elected in 2018.   Valerie Whittaker is the R nominee.

2. [Lincoln Park, Allen Park] Safe D
P16: 45 G18: 38 AG18: 39 P20: 44
The downriver area has moved right under Trump, but is more D downballot.  Tullio Liberati (D), younger brother of rep (14-20) Frank Liberati, was elected in 2020.  Ronald Kokinda is the R nominee.

3. [Dearborn] Safe D
P16: 23 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 23
This district has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Community organizer Alabas Farhat lost the 2022 special election primary to Jeffrey Pepper, who replaced Abdullah Hammoud.  Pepper didn't seek a full term, and Farhat was elected in 2022. Farhat won the D primary.  State Board of Education member (10-18) Richard Zeile will be the R nominee.

4. [W Detroit] Safe D
P16: 2 G18: 3 AG18: 3 P20: 4
Community organizer Karen Whitsett (D) was first elected in 2018.  She made headlines in 2020 after calling the house D leader racist and praising President Trump after recovering from coronavirus.  She won renomination in 2020 with 45% against a split field.  She has not attracted much attention since then, and is unopposed for reelection this year.

5. [W Detroit, Oak Park] Safe D
P16: 6 G18: 6 AG18: 6 P20: 9
Oak Park City Council Member Regina Weiss (D) was elected in 2020.  She currently represents district 6, an absurd strip from Detroit to Royal Oak.  Will Sears is the R nominee.

6. [Royal Oak] Safe D
P16: 34 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 32
Berkley City Councilmember Natalie Price was elected in 2022 to district 5, a particularly absurd strip from Detroit to Oakland County.  It has a chunk of Detroit, slices through Oak Park to the mostly white suburb of Birmingham (with precincts from Southfield, Royal Oak, and Berkley).  The new district 6 is a much more reasonable district based in Royal Oak.  Brent Lamkin is the R nominee.

7. [C Detroit] Safe D
P16: 4 G18: 5 AG18: 5 P20: 7
Hamtramck city commissioner Abraham Aiyash (D), a Muslim Bernie Sanders progressive elected in 2020, is retiring, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  He represents district 9, which roughly corresponds to this new district.  Tonya Phillips (D) faces Barry Altman (R).

8. [C Detroit, Ferndale] Safe D
P16: 8 G18: 8 AG18: 9 P20: 9
Helena Scott (D), a legislative staffer, was elected to district 7 in 2020.  In 2022, district 7 was drawn as a strip from Detroit to Royal Oak.  She is running in district 8 this year.  Alex Kuhn is the R nominee.

9. [downtown Detroit] Safe D
P16: 4 G18: 4 AG18: 5 P20: 5
Joe Tate (D) was elected in 2018 and became the house D leader and speaker after the 2022 election.  His current district 10 includes the Grosse Pointes.  He is running in district 9, which includes downtown Detroit.  Michele Lundgren is the R nominee.

10. [Grosse Pointes, Detroit] Safe D
P16: 32 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
Harper Woods Council Member Veronica Paiz was elected in 2022 to district 11, which stretches from Detroit to most of St. Clair Shores.  The new district 10 includes most of the Grosse Pointes (a clear community of interest), but combines them with part of Detroit, making it unlikely that they can elect a candidate of their choice.  Griffin Wojtowicz is the R nominee.

11. [N Detroit, S Warren] Safe D
P16: 13 G18: 12 AG18: 13 P20: 16
Donavan McKinney was elected in 2022 to district 14, which contains parts of Detroit and Warren.  He will be the D nominee for the new district 11.  The R nominee is Dale Walker.

12. [Eastpointe, Detroit, St. Clair Shores] Safe D
P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 29 P20: 31
The old version of this district combined parts of Detroit and Macomb County.  Kimberly Edwards (D), a Detroit resident, won a surprise upset over a Macomb D incumbent in 2022.  The new district trades Roseville for part of St. Clair Shores.  Randell Shafer is the R nominee.

13. [E Warren, Roseville] Lean D
P16: 49 G18: 41 AG18: 43 P20: 48
The current district includes E Warren and a chunk of Detroit.  It was redistricted to include less of Warren and none of Detroit.  It added Roseville and central St. Clair Shores.  The new district was close at the presidential level, but is more D downballot.
Macomb County commissioner Mai Xiong (D) was elected in a 2024 special election after incumbent Lori Stone was elected mayor of Warren in 2023.  She defeated former state rep Rich Steenland (D) in the primary.  Engineer Ronald Singer is the R nominee.

14. [C Warren, Madison Heights] Safe D
P16: 42 G18: 35 AG18: 37 P20: 41
Hazel Park City Councilmember Mike McFall was elected in 2022 to district 8, which was a strip from Detroit to Madison Heights.  The new district 14 has Madison Heights, Hazel Park, and a large chuck of central Warren.  McFall is running here.
McFall defeated former Warren Mayor (2007-23) James Fouts in the primary.  The R nominee is Barbara Barber.

15. [Dearborn Heights, W Dearborn] Safe D
38-62 P16: 39 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
This district has a significant Middle Eastern population.  Dearborn City Councilmember Erin Byrnes (D) was elected in 2022.  Gary Gardner is the R nominee.

16. [SE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
22-78 P16: 23 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 23
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Stephanie Young (D) was elected to a district entirely within Detroit in 2020.  Brian Duggan is the R nominee.

17. [NE Livonia, Detroit] Safe D
31-69 P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 30 P20: 31
This district is gerrymandered to include part of Detroit and some swing areas in Livonia.  Laurie Pohutsky (D) is a progressive who was first elected to a swing district based in Livonia in 2018.  Rola Makki is the R nominee.

18. [Southfield, Farmington] Safe D
20-80 P16: 19 G18: 18 AG18: 19 P20: 20
Southfield City Councilman Jason Hoskins (D) was elected in 2022.  Mordechai Klainberg is the R nominee.

19. [N Farmington Hills, S Bloomfield Twp] Safe D
33-67 P16: 33 G18: 32 AG18: 34 P20: 31
Farmington Hills City Council member Samantha Steckloff (D) was elected in 2020.  Kevin Hammer is the R nominee.

20. [W Bloomfield Twp.] Safe D
43-57 P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 41 P20: 43
Political activist Noah Arbit (D) was elected in 2022.  Brendan Cowley is the R nominee.

21. [Novi] Safe D
42-56 P16: 45.3 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.9 P20: 42.4
Novi city councilmember Kelly Breen (D) flipped this historically conservative seat D in 2020.  The new district moved several points left.  Residential appraiser Thomas Konesky is the R nominee.

22. [W Livonia, Plymouth, Northville] Lean D
46-54 P16: 50 G18: 46.8 AG18: 49.7 P20: 47.2
Matt Koleszar (D) was first elected in 2018, flipping a historically R seat that moved left under Trump.  This district moved several points right compared to Koleszar's old district.  Carpet cleaner Adam Stathakis is the R nominee.

23. [E Ann Arbor, South Lyon] Safe D
35-65 P16: 35 G18: 35 AG18: 37 P20: 34
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, Ann Arbor was split into four pieces.  This particularly absurd district has a slice of Ann Arbor, R-leaning Salem Township, South Lyon from Oakland County, and parts of Plymouth and Northville Townships in Wayne County.  Washtenaw County Commissioner Jason Morgan was elected in 2022.  David Stamp is the R nominee.

24. [Canton Twp] Safe D
39-61 P16: 41 G18: 37 AG18: 40 P20: 38
Ranjeev Puri (D) was elected in 2020.  Leonard Scott is the R nominee.

25. [Westland, Wayne] Safe D
37-63 P16: 40 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 40
Peter Herzberg (D) was elected in a 2024 special election after Kevin Coleman (D) was elected in mayor of Westland.  Josh Powell is the R nominee.

26. [Garden City, Inkster, N Romulus] Safe D
32-68 P16: 32 G18: 27 AG18: 28 P20: 34
Teacher Dylan Wegela (D) won in 2022.  Jeff Gorman is the R nominee.

27. [Trenton, Grosse Ile] Tossup
49.2-50.8 P16: 51.5 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.7 P20: 51.3
The downriver area has many working class voters who have moved right under Trump.  Teacher Jaime Churches (D) was elected in 2022.  Student activist Rylee Linting is the R nominee.

28. [NE Monroe, Brownstown Twp] Lean R
51-49 P16: 51.5 G18: 43.4 AG18: 45.6 P20: 51.9
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Nurse Jamie Thompson (R) was elected in 2022.  Teacher Janise Robinson is the D nominee.

29. [Taylor, Huron] Lean R
51.5-48.5 P16: 51.6 G18: 44.3 AG18: 46.3 P20: 53
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It is gerrymandered to stretch from Taylor (D) in Wayne to rural R areas of Monroe.  Sales manager James DeSana (R) was elected in 2022.  Taylor School Board member Kyle Wright will be the D nominee.

30. [S Monroe] Safe R
37-63 P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 60
Army veteran William Bruck was elected in 2022.  Rick Kull is the D nominee.

31. [N Monroe, Belleville] Lean D
47.7-52.3 P16: 47.4 G18: 42.1 AG18: 44.1 P20: 48.8
This is one of three districts that contain part of Wayne and Monroe Counties.  It combines heavily D parts of Wayne with rural R areas of Monroe.  Van Buren Township Trustee Reggie Miller (D) was elected in 2022.  She won by 5% over truck driver Dale Biniecki, who is the R nominee again this year.

32. [Ypsilanti] Safe D
21-79 P16: 22 G18: 20 AG18: 21 P20: 22
Ypsilanti Township Trustee Jimmie Wilson Jr. was elected in 2022.  Martin Church is the R nominee.

33. [S Ann Arbor, Pittsfield Twp] Safe D
25-75 P16: 25 G18: 24 AG18: 26 P20: 23
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships.  County Commissioner Felicia Brabec (D), who was elected in 2020, is retiring to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  Legislative staffer Morgan Foreman won the D nomination.  The R nominee is Jason Rogers.

34. [Lenawee] Safe R
62-38 P16: 57 G18: 53 AG18: 54 P20: 58
State rep (10-14) and senator (14-22) Dale Zorn won this seat in 2022.  He is term limited (even after the initiative).  Former state rep (10-16) Nancy Jenkins, who is no longer term limited, is the R nominee.  John Dahlgren is the D nominee after losing in 2022.

35. [Hillsdale, Branch] Safe R
73-27 P16: 69 G18: 64 AG18: 66 P20: 71
Attorney Andrew Fink (R), who was elected in 2020, is running for Michigan Supreme Court.  Teacher Jennifer Wortz won the R nomination.  The D nominee is Don Hicks.

36. [St. Joseph, Cass] Safe R
66-34 P16: 63 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 65
Steve Carra (R) was first elected in 2020.  He is a pro-Trump libertarian who is close to the Karamo faction of the Michigan GOP.  After congressman Fred Upton voted for impeachment, Carra announced a run against him, and was endorsed by President Trump.  Redistricting took Carra out of the new district, and added the base of Congressman Bill Huizenga, who ran for the seat.  President Trump then offered a "complete and total" endorsement of Huizenga.  While not explicitly un-endorsing Carra, this served to push him out of the race, and he chose to run for reelection.  Upton decided not to seek reelection.
Carra won renomination easily this year after a weak showing in 2022.  Erin Schultes is the D nominee.

37. [S Berrien, W Cass] Safe R
65-35 P16: 59 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore and added more of interior Berrien County.  Teacher Brad Paquette (R) was first elected in 2018.  Angela Jones is the D nominee.

38. [Berrien to Allegan lakeshore] Lean D
48.2-51.8 P16: 46.1 G18: 44.9 AG18: 46.5 P20: 44.6
This absurd district runs about 75 miles along the Lake Michigan shoreline from New Buffalo to Saugatuck.  It is barely a mile wide at one point.  Apparently, people who live close to a lake form a community of interest.  This district promotes "partisan fairness" since it favors Ds.  Joey Andrews (D), an AFL-CIO operative, won this seat in 2022.
The R nominee is Kevin Whiteford, the husband of Allegan County state rep (16-22) Mary Whiteford, who lost by 3.6% in 2022.
39. [Van Buren] Safe R
63-37 P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 60
This district lost the lakeshore of Van Buren and added parts of Berrien and Allegan.  Pauline Wendzel (R), a businesswoman who was elected to a N Berrien district in 2018, won here in 2022.   Kerry Tapper won the D nomination.

40. [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas] Safe D
41-59 P16: 42 G18: 41 AG18: 44.6 P20: 40
This area was R-held until 2020, when county commissioner Christine Morse (D) won an open seat. She is retiring this year to seek a local judgeship.  Dr. Matt Longjohn, who was the D nominee for congress in 2018, is the D nominee this year.  The R candidate is Kalamazoo GOP chair Kelly Sackett, who lost by 17% in 2022.

41. [Kalamazoo city] Safe D
21-77 P16: 23 G18: 22 AG18: 24 P20: 23
County commissioner Julie Rogers (D) was elected in 2020 after losing earlier bids in 2006 and 2008.  The R nominee is Terry Haines.
42. [rural Kalamazoo, Plainwell] Safe R
55-45 P16: 52.9 G18: 49.4 AG18: 53.2 P20: 52.6
Matt Hall was first elected in 2018, defeating a moderate incumbent, and is now the house R leader.  He moved to Kalamazoo County from Calhoun County after being put in the same district as Sarah Lightner (R) of Jackson County.  The D nominee is Austin Marsman.

43. [Allegan, S Barry] Safe R
71-29 P16: 67 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 69
This absurd district includes the majority of Allegan County, southern Barry County, one township from Eaton County, and part of a township in Ottawa County.  Martin Township Clerk Rachelle Smit was elected in 2022 with a Trump endorsement.   Danene Shumaker is the D nominee.

44. [Battle Creek, Albion] Tossup
47.8-52.2 P16: 48.1 G18: 44.4 AG18: 47.3 P20: 49.4
This district was drawn in 2012 as a gerrymander to put the most D areas of Calhoun in one district to protect then-speaker Jase Bolger (R) in a neighboring district.  Incredibly, the redistricting commission maintained this gerrymander.  County commissioner Jim Haadsma (D) was elected to this open seat in 2018. County commissioner Steve Frisbie is the R nominee.
45. [S Calhoun, W Jackson] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Sarah Lightner (R) was first elected in 2018 in a rural Jackson County district.  Doug Murch is the D nominee.

46. [Jackson city] Tossup
54.4-45.6 P16: 48 G18: 44.4 AG18: 46.8 P20: 49.1
This district was gerrymandered by adding Chelsea in Washtenaw County and removing rural R townships.  Broadcaster Kathy Schmaltz (R) won in 2022 after the D nominee imploded due to scandal.  Jackson Mayor Daniel Mahoney is the D nominee.

47. [W Ann Arbor, SW Jackson] Safe D
37-63 P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 36 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson County.  Social work lecturer Carrie Rheingans was elected in 2022.  Teresa Spiegelberg won the R nomination.
48. [N Ann Arbor, SC Livingston] Lean D
46-53 P16: 48.1 G18: 44.6 AG18: 46.5 P20: 46.6
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Washtenaw County area, this absurdly gerrymandered district combines part of Ann Arbor with rural townships in Jackson and Livingston Counties.  Journalist Jennifer Conlin (D) was elected in 2022.  Brian Ignatowski won the R nomination.

49. [SE Livington, Wixom] Safe R
56-44 P16: 54.9 G18: 51.2 AG18: 53.7 P20: 53.2
Ann Bollin was first elected in 2018.  The D nominee is Andy Wood.

50. [N, W Livingston] Safe R
67-33 P16: 65 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Former Livingston County Sheriff Bob Bezotte (R) was elected in 2020.  Following the news of a messy divorce, he announced his retirement, and several candidates jumped in the race to succeed him.  One is Marine veteran and pastor Jason Woolford, who lost by 7% in district 48 in 2022.  Bezotte then reentered the race shortly before the filing deadline.  Woolford won the R nomination 34-30.
Austin Breuer is the D nominee.

51. [White Lake, Milford] Safe R
58-42 P16: 61 G18: 56 AG18: 58 P20: 59
Matt Maddock, an antiestablishment leader who is close to Trump, was first elected in 2018.  Sarah May-Seward won the D nomination.

52. [Waterford, Independence] Safe R
59-41 P16: 59 G18: 53 AG18: 56 P20: 57
Police officer Mike Harris (R) was elected in a 2022 special election, following the death of Andrea Schroeder.  Caroline Dargay is the D nominee.

53. [Pontiac, S Waterford] Safe D
33-67 P16: 30 G18: 28 AG18: 29 P20: 32
Brenda Carter (D) was first elected in 2018.  Melissa Schultz is the R nominee.

54. [N Bloomfield, Auburn Hills, Orion] Lean R
51.2-48.8 P16: 51.2 G18: 48.4 AG18: 50.8 P20: 48.3
This is a rare example of a good draw for Rs (though not very compact), which puts shaky territory in Bloomfield Township with more R Orion Township to the north.  Orion Township Treasurer and realtor Donni Steele (R) won in 2022.  Businesswoman Shadia Martini is the D nominee again after losing by 2% in 2022.

55. [Rochester Hills] Lean R
51.8-48.2 P16: 50.9 G18: 48.2 AG18: 51.1 P20: 48.1
This historically conservative wealthy suburban seat has trended left under Trump.  Rochester Hills City Council member Mark Tisdell (R) won a highly competitive general election in 2020.  Diplomat Trevis Harrold won the D nomination.


56. [Troy] Safe D
42-58 P16: 45.1 G18: 42 AG18: 44.6 P20: 41.3
Marketing manager Sharon MacDonell (D) was elected in 2022.  Dave Kniffen is the R nominee.

57. [W Sterling Heights] Lean R
52.6-47.4 P16: 52 G18: 46.4 AG18: 48.4 P20: 53.1
Oakland County Commissioner and attorney Thomas Kuhn (R) was elected in 2022.  Attorney Aisha Farooqi (D) is the D nominee again after losing by 5% in 2022.  

58. [E Sterling Heights] Tossup
48.7-51.3 P16: 52.5 G18: 45.4 AG18: 48 P20: 52.1
This district is very oddly shaped for no clear reason.  Nate Shannon (D) was first elected in 2018.  Utica City Councilman Ron Robinson won the R nomination.

59. [Shelby Twp] Safe R
65-35 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 61 P20: 63
State rep (18-21) Doug Wozniak won a 2021 special election for a Macomb-based state senate seat.  Redistricting put Wozniak in the same district as an incumbent senator, and he chose to run for state house again in 2022, defeating his successor in the primary.  Jason Pulaski is the D nominee.

60. [Macomb Twp] Safe R
58-42 P16: 59 G18: 51.4 AG18: 55 P20: 58
Former Clinton Townshp Trustee Joseph Aragona was elected in 2022.  Shelly Fraley will be the D nominee.

61. [Clinton Twp] Lean D
48-52 P16: 50.3 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.8 P20: 49.5
Mount Clemens City Commissioner Denise Mentzer (D) won this seat in 2022.  School board member Robert Wojtowicz won the R nomination.

62. [Harrison Twp] Lean R
53.4-46.6 P16: 52.8 G18: 46.1 AG18: 48.2 P20: 52.7
Alicia St. Germaine (R) was elected in 2022.  Michelle Levine-Woodman is the D nominee.

63. [Chesterfield Twp, S St. Clair] Safe R
64-36 P16: 64 G18: 56 AG18: 59 P20: 65
St. Clair County Clerk Jay DeBoyer won this seat in 2022.  Robert Kelly-McFarland is the D nominee.

64. [E St. Clair] Safe R
61-39 P16: 58 G18: 49.5 AG18: 52.6 P20: 59
R incumbents Andrew Beeler (20-24) and Gary Eisen (18-22) faced off in 2022, with Beeler winning 67-26.  Beeler is retiring this year, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.   Joseph Pavlov won the R nomination.  John Anter won the D nomination.

65. [W St. Clair, E Lapeer] Safe R
72-28 P16: 70 G18: 62 AG18: 65 P20: 71
Navy veteran and Richmond City Councilmember Jaime Greene won in 2022.  Shirley Tomczak is the D nominee.

66. [NE Oakland] Safe R
65-35 P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 63 P20: 65
Teacher Josh Schriver won this seat in 2022 on a libertarian-leaning platform.  He has attracted controversy for retweeting a meme about the 'great replacement'.  Shawn Almeranti-Crosby is the D nominee.

67. [W Lapeer, NE Genesee] Safe R
61-39 P16: 58 G18: 50.2 AG18: 54 P20: 60
Phil Green (R) was elected in 2018 in a Tuscola/Huron County district.  Redistricting placed one township from Tuscola County in this district.  Green won an 8-way primary with only 25% in 2022.
 Anissa Buffin is the D nominee.

68. [Burton, Davison] Lean R
55-45 P16: 52.5 G18: 45.5 AG18: 49.9 P20: 52.3
This area has moved significantly right under Trump.  David Martin (R), a county commissioner from Davison who upset an incumbent D in 2020 in a NW Genesee district, won this district in 2022.  Former rep (16-22) Tim Sneller (D) of Burton died while running for the D nomination, leading to Matt Schlinker winning the D nomination as a write-in.

69. [W Genesee] Safe D
41-56 P16: 41 G18: 36 AG18: 40 P20: 42
Legislative staffer Jasper Martus was elected in 2022.  Patrick Duvendeck is the R nominee.
70. [Flint] Safe D
18-82 P16: 17 G18: 14 AG18: 16 P20: 19
Due to population loss in Flint, this district expanded from being contained within Flint to containing Flint and some suburban areas.  It has a black majority.  Cynthia Neeley (D) won a 2020 special election to replace her husband Sheldon Neeley after he was elected mayor of Flint.  Rob Waskoviak is the R nominee.

71. [Shiawassee] Safe R
58-42 P16: 57 G18: 50.4 AG18: 56 P20: 60
Shiawassee County Sheriff Brian BeGole was elected in 2022.  Mark Zacharda is the D nominee again after losing in 2022.

72. [Fenton, Grand Blanc] Safe R
58-42 P16: 55 G18: 49.6 AG18: 53 P20: 55
This district added some competitive areas near Flint.  It shifted slightly left, but is still safe.  Former police officer Mike Mueller (R) was first elected in 2018.  John Dolza is the D nominee.

73. [rural Ingham] Safe D
43-57 P16: 43 G18: 39 AG18: 43 P20: 44
This rural Ingham district loses Delhi Township and adds part of East Lansing.  It is usually close, but never close enough for Rs to win.  Julie Brixie (D) was elected in 2018 to a district based in East Lansing and Meridian Township.  Joshua Rockey is the R nominee.

74. [S Lansing, Delhi Twp] Safe D
31-69 P16: 31 G18: 28 AG18: 31 P20: 31
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing.  Kara Hope (D) was elected in 2018.  Tom Izzo (not the MSU basketball coach) is the R nominee.
75. [Meridian Twp, SE Clinton] Safe D
40-60 P16: 39 G18: 35 AG18: 40 P20: 38
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits East Lansing and absorbs rural R areas.  Former Ingham County Commissioner Penelope Tsernoglou won in 2022 after losing to state rep Julie Brixie in the 2018 D primary.  Frank Lambert is the R nominee.

76. [Eaton] Lean D
44-56 P16: 47.9 G18: 42.9 AG18: 46.9 P20: 47.9
This district flipped several times over the past decade, and usually has close races.  Angela Witwer (D) was first elected with 50.8% in 2018 and was reelected with 51.2% in 2020.  Pastor Andy Shaver won the R nomination.

77. [N Lansing, SW Clinton] Safe D
38-62 P16: 37 G18: 33 AG18: 38 P20: 37
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Lansing area, this district splits Lansing and absorbs rural R areas of Clinton County.  Leftist activist Emily Dievendorf won this seat in 2022.  Cady Ness-Smith won the R nomination.

78. [Ionia, NE Barry] Safe R
66-34 P16: 62 G18: 56 AG18: 61 P20: 63
Businesswoman Gina Johnsen won in 2022 after losing an Eaton County seat in 2020.  Christine Terpening is the D nominee.

79. [S Kent] Safe R
66-34 P16: 65 G18: 64 AG18: 67 P20: 63
This district has most of the southern tier of Kent, plus three townships from Barry and one from Allegan.  Angela Rigas was elected in 2022 after securing the Trump endorsement.  The D nominee is Jason Rubin.

80. [Kentwood, East Grand Rapids] Safe D
44-56 P16: 42.7 G18: 43 AG18: 46.1 P20: 39.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Kent County Commissioner Phil Skaggs (D) won here in 2022.  Former Allegan County Commissioner Bill Sage is the R nominee.

81. [NE Grand Rapids, Ada Twp] Safe D
44-56 P16: 45.5 G18: 43.3 AG18: 46.6 P20: 41.8
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Rep. (18-24) Rachel Hood (D) is retiring, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  Kent County Commissioner Stephen Wooden is the D nominee.  Jordan Youngquist is the R nominee.

82. [SE Grand Rapids] Safe D
25-74 P16: 24 G18: 25 AG18: 27 P20: 23
Grand Rapids school board member Kristian Grant was elected in 2022.  Ryan Malinoski is the R nominee again after losing in 2022.
83. [Wyoming, SW Grand Rapids] Lean D
45-53 P16: 46.2 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.9 P20: 44
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost heavily R Byron Township and added part of Grand Rapids.  Wyoming City Councilmember John Fitzgerald (D) was elected in 2022.  
Former rep (16-22) Tommy Brann (R) is no longer term limited and is the R nominee after losing a race for state senate in 2022.  

84. [W Grand Rapids, Walker, Grandville] Lean D
44-56 P16: 47.5 G18: 43.8 AG18: 47.1 P20: 43.7
As part of an effort by the commission to elect more Ds in the Grand Rapids area, this district lost several rural townships and added part of Grand Rapids.  Walker City Commissioner Carol Glanville (D) was elected 52-40 in a normally safe R district in a May 2022 special election after the election of Mark Huizenga to the state senate.
Businessman John Wetzel won the R nomination.

85. [Jenison, Zeeland] Safe R
70-28 P16: 71 G18: 69 AG18: 72 P20: 67
Bradley Slagh was first elected in 2018.  Marcia Mansaray is the D nominee.

86. [Holland] Safe R
56-44 P16: 51.7 G18: 51.4 AG18: 54.4 P20: 49.3
This Holland-area district has trended left, but is more R downballot.  Former Holland Mayor Nancy De Boer was elected in 2022.   Legislative staffer Abby Klomparens is the D nominee.

87. [Muskegon city] Safe D
38-62 P16: 37 G18: 34 AG18: 37 P20: 39
Will Snyder, district director for Rep. (16-22) Terry Sabo won here in 2022.  The R nominee is Chip Chipman.

88. [Grand Haven, Norton Shores] Safe R
56-42 P16: 54.5 G18: 51.7 AG18: 55.3 P20: 53.7
Greg VanWoerkom, son of state senator (02-10) Jerry VanWoerkom, was elected to the rural Muskegon district in 2018.  That district was chopped into three pieces, and he won this district in 2022.  Tim Meyer is the D nominee.

89. [E Ottawa, SE Muskegon] Safe R
69-31 P16: 65 G18: 61 AG18: 64 P20: 66
Luke Meerman (R) was first elected in 2018.  The D nominee is Lois Maassen.

90. [NC Kent] Safe R
62-38 P16: 60 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 59
Bryan Posthumus (R) was first elected in 2020.  He is the son of LG (1998-2002) Dick Posthumus and brother of Kent County Clerk Lisa Lyons.  William Higgins is the D nominee.

91. [Montcalm] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 67
Pat Outman, the son of senator (18-P) Rick Outman, was first elected in 2020.  Jason Dillingham is the D nominee.

92. [Isabella, N Gratiot] Safe R
56-42 P16: 50.8 G18: 46.4 AG18: 50.2 P20: 53
This district is drawn in the way most beneficial to Ds.  While it keeps Isabella County whole, it includes northern Gratiot County, which is the most pro-D area in any of the five neighboring counties.  Farmer Jerry Neyer (R) won this seat in 2022.  CMU manager Timothy Odykirk is the D nominee.
93. [W Saginaw, S Gratiot, N Clinton] Safe R
64-36 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 62 P20: 64
Graham Filler (R) was first elected in 2018 and moved into this new district after his house was put into a D-heavy district as part of the gerrymander of the Lansing area.  He is retiring this year, possibly to prepare for a state senate campaign in 2026.  The R nominee will be former state rep (12-18) Tim Kelly, who is no longer term limited.  He was nominated, but not confirmed for a position in the Trump administration and lost a campaigns for congress in 2020 and state senate in 2022.
Kevin Seamon is the D nominee.

94. [Saginaw city] Safe D
32-68 P16: 31 G18: 29 AG18: 32 P20: 32
Saginaw County commissioner Amos O'Neal (D) was elected in 2020.  Robert Zelle won the R nomination.

95. [Midland] Safe R
61-39 P16: 57 G18: 55 AG18: 57 P20: 57
Former DIA officer Bill G. Schuette, son of former AG (10-18) Bill Schuette, was elected in 2022.  Sabrina Lopez is the D nominee.

96. [Bay County] Safe R
55-45 P16: 52.3 G18: 45.9 AG18: 48.8 P20: 53.7
Bay County was long a D stronghold, but it has been moving right.  Bangor Township School Board member Timothy Beson (R) defeated a D incumbent in an upset in 2020.  Teacher Rudy Howard, Jr. is the D nominee.

97. [E Saginaw, W Tuscola] Safe R
67-33 P16: 63 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 64
This strange district neighbors four urban areas, and has an arm to take in rural areas between the tri-cities (Saginaw, Midland, and Bay City).  Former Tuscola County Commissioner Matthew Bierlein defeated an R incumbent in 2022 to win this seat.  Mark Putnam is the D nominee.

98. [the Thumb] Safe R
72-28 P16: 69 G18: 63 AG18: 66 P20: 71
Former Sanilac County drain commissioner and farmer Gregory Alexander was elected in 2022.  April Osentoski is the D nominee.

99. [Iosco, Arenac, Ogemaw, Gladwin] Safe R
68-32 P16: 65 G18: 58 AG18: 59 P20: 67
Au Gres Mayor and hunting store owner Mike Hoadley was elected in 2022 after securing a Trump endorsement.  John LeRoux is the D nominee.

100. [Mecosta, Osceola, Clare] Safe R
68-32 P16: 64 G18: 59 AG18: 62 P20: 67
Grant Township Board member Tom Kunse won in 2022.  Tracy Ruell won the D nomination.

101. [Newaygo, Lake] Safe R
68-32 P16: 65 G18: 60 AG18: 63 P20: 67
Former director of the Newaygo County Commission on Aging Joseph Fox was elected in 2022.  Christopher Crain is the D nominee.

102. [Muskegon to Manistee lakeshore] Safe R
61-39 P16: 56 G18: 53 AG18: 55 P20: 58
This district was assembled from pieces of three existing districts.  Senator (18-22) Curt VanderWall (R) was previously a state rep (16-18) representing one of them.  Redistricting put him in a district largely represented by senator Jon Bumstead.  VanderWall decided to run for state house in 2022 rather than challenge Bumstead or move to a different district.  Kathy Pelleran-Mahoney is the D nominee.

103. [Leelanau, Traverse City] Tossup
48.5-49.8 P16: 49.9 G18: 46.6 AG18: 49.5 P20: 46.9
This district is gerrymandered to combine Leelanau County with the Traverse City area in a way that is the best for Ds.  Grand Traverse County is split, even though it has the right population for a single district.  Grand Traverse County Commissioner Betsy Coffia (D), who previously lost races for state house in 2012, 2014, and 2016, has most D establishment support, narrowly beat an R incumbent in 2022.
Former county GOP chair Lisa Trombley won the R nomination.
104. [S Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Antrim] Safe R
63-37 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 60 P20: 62
The oddly shaped district contains parts of six counties but all of none.  John Roth (R) was first elected in 2020 and moved to this district to avoid a primary with another incumbent.  Larry Knight is the D nominee.

105. [Roscommon, Crawford, Otsego, Missaukee] Safe R
69-31 P16: 66 G18: 61 AG18: 65 P20: 68
Otsego County Commissioner Ken Borton was first elected in 2020.  James Wojey is the D nominee.

106. [NE Lower Peninsula] Safe R
65-35 P16: 64 G18: 58 AG18: 62 P20: 66
Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner Cam Cavitt was elected in 2022.  Veteran Todd Smalenberg is also seeking the R nomination.  Trina Borenstein won the D nomination. 

107. [Mackinac Bridge area] Safe R
57-43 P16: 58 G18: 54 AG18: 57 P20: 57
Property manager Neil Friske won this seat in 2022.  He is an antiestablishment conservative friendly with the Karamo wing of the Michigan GOP.  He was arrested (but not charged) due to an incident with a prostitute in Lansing.  University student Parker Fairbairn, who also ran in 2022, defeated Friske for R nomination.  Jodi Decker will again be the D nominee after losing in 2022.

108. [Menominee to Chippewa] Safe R
66-34 P16: 62 G18: 57 AG18: 58 P20: 64
Menominee County Commissioner and paramedic David Prestin won this seat in 2022.  Christiana Reynolds is the D nominee.

109. [Marquette] Lean D
47-53 P16: 48.6 G18: 43.6 AG18: 45.1 P20: 48
Trump won this district, but it is more D downballot.  Marquette City Commissioner Jenn Hill won this seat in 2022.  Hill faces two primary challengers.  Weatherman Karl Bohnak won the R nomination.

110. [W Upper Peninsula] Safe R
63-37 P16: 59 G18: 54 AG18: 55 P20: 59
Gregory Markkanen (R) won this historically D district in an upset in in 2018.  Kim Corcoran is the D nominee.

Summary of Ratings:
Safe D: 42 (1-12, 14-21, 23-26, 32, 33, 40, 41, 47, 53, 56, 69, 70, 73-75, 77, 81-82, 87, 94)
Lean D: 10 (13, 22, 31, 38, 48, 61, 76, 83, 84, 109)
Tossup: 6 (27, 44, 46, 58, 103)
Lean R: 8 (28, 29, 54, 55, 57, 62, 68)
Safe R: 44 (30, 34-37, 39, 42, 43, 45, 49-52, 59, 60, 63-67, 71, 72, 78, 79, 85, 86, 88-93, 95-102, 104-108, 110)
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Wednesday, October 16, 2024

2024 State Supreme Court Election Preview

A majority of states have elections for state Supreme Court in November.  Here is a guide to the contested elections.  The elections in Arkansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas seem to be the most competitive.

Ballotpedia:  2024 State Supreme Court Elections

Alabama: 
Chief:  Chief justice Tom Parker is age-limited.  Justice Sarah Stewart (R) faces local judge Greg Griffin (D).
Jay Mitchell, Tommy Bryan, Will Sellers (all R) are unopposed for reelection to the court.  Chris McCool (R), a judge of the Alabama Court of Criminal Appeals is unopposed for promotion to the court.

Arizona:  Justices Clint Bolick and Kathryn Hackett King (both R-appointed) face a retention election.  Leftists are campaigning against them due to a decision on abortion.  There is also a ballot proposition to end retention elections for judges.

Arkansas:  Chief Justice John Dan Kemp is retiring.  Justice Karen Baker (D) and Justice Rhonda Wood (R) advanced to the November runoff.  Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) will appoint a replacement for whichever justice wins.

Florida:  Justices Renatha Francis and Meredith Sasso face a retention election.  Both are conservatives appointed by Ron DeSantis (R).  Some newspapers are recommended a no vote on them.

Illinois:  
District 1 (Cook County): Justice Joy Cunningham (D) faces a retention election.
District 2 (west, central): Justice Lisa Holder White (R) faces a retention election.

Indiana:  Justices Loretta Rush, Christopher Goff and Derek Molter face a retention election.

Iowa: Justice David May (R-appointed) faces a retention election.  There is some opposition due to a decision on abortion.

Kentucky:  
District 5 (Lexington area): Justice Laurance VanMeter (R) is retiring.  Appeals court judge Pamela Goodwine (D supported) and lawyer Erin Izzo (R supported) are seeking the seat.

Louisiana:  Justice Scott Crichton (R) is age-limited.  District 2 was redrawn to be a black-majority district based in Baton Rouge.  Appeals court judges John Michael Guidry and Marcus Hunter, and lawyer Leslie Chambers are seeking the seat.  The primary election is November 5, and a runoff (if necessary) is December 7.

Maryland:  Justices Matthew Fader, Shirley Watts, and Angela Eaves face a retention election.

Bolden seat:  Former state rep Kyra Bolden (D) was appointed in 2023 to complete the term of Justice Bridget Mary McCormack.  She is running for the partial (4-year) term.  She faces Branch County circuit court judge Patrick William O’Grady (R).
Viviano seat:  Justice David Viviano (R), appointed in 2013, is retiring.  State rep Andrew Fink (R) faces law professor Kimberly Ann Thomas (D).

Minnesota: Three justices face nonpartisan elections.
Chief Justice Natalie Hudson (D-appointed) faces attorney Stephen Emery.
Justice Karl Procaccini (D-appointed) faces attorney Matthew Hanson.
Justice Anne McKeig (D-appointed) is unopposed.

Mississippi:  Four justices face nonpartisan elections.
District 1 (central) Position 3: Incumbent James Kitchens (age 81) faces state senator Jenifer Branning (R) and attorneys Byron Carter, Ceola James, and Abby Robinson.  Branning has raised by far the most money.
District 2 (south) Position 2: Incumbent Dawn Beam faces David Sullivan.
District 3 (north) Position 1: Incumbent Robert Chamberlin is unopposed.
District 3 (north) Position 2: Incumbent Jimmy Maxwell is unopposed.

Missouri:  Justices Kelly Broniec and Ginger Gooch (both R-appointed) face a retention election.

Montana:  Two justices faces nonpartisan elections in a state that has seen major conflict between the courts and the legislature.
Chief:  Chief Justice Mike McGrath is retiring.  Broadwater County attorney Cory Swanson (R) and Jerry Lynch (D supported) finished first and second in the primary.
Sandefur seat:  Justice Dirk Sandefur is retiring.  District Judge Katherine Bidegaray (D supported) and Flathead County District Court Judge Dan Wilson (R supported) finished first and second in the primary.

Nebraska:  Justice Stephanie Stacy faces a retention election.

Nevada:  Justices Elissa Cadish, Lidia Stiglich, and Patricia Lee are unopposed for nonpartisan reelection.

New Mexico:  Briana Zamora faces a retention election.

North Carolina:  One seat is up for partisan election.
Seat 6: Justice Allison Riggs (D) was appointed in 2023.  Court of Appeals judge Jefferson Griffin (R) is seeking the seat.

Ohio:  Three seats are up for election.
Incumbent Michael Donnelly (D) faces local judge Megan Shanahan (R).
Incumbent Melody Stewart (D) faces appointed incumbent Joseph Deters (R).
Appeals judge Lisa Forbes (D) faces local judge Dan Hawkins (R).

Oklahoma:  Liberal justices Noma Gurich (age 72), Yvonne Kauger (age 87), and James Edmondson (age 79) face a retention election. The conservative group People for Opportunity is leading a campaign against retention.

Oregon:  Justices Stephen Bushong, Rebecca Duncan, Meagan Flynn, Aruna Masih, and Bronson James (D-appointed) are unopposed for nonpartisan reelection.

South Dakota:  Justice Scott Myren faces a retention election.

Texas Supreme Court:  There are three R incumbents up for election.  Leftists are campaigning against them due to a decision on abortion.
Place 2: Jimmy Blacklock (R) faces DaSean Jones (D).
Place 4: John Devine (R) faces Christine Weems (D).
Place 6: Jane Bland (R) faces Bonnie Lee Goldstein (D).

Texas Court of Criminal Appeals: In the March 5 primary, R incumbents Sharon Keller, Barbara Hervey, and Michelle Slaughter lost renomination.  The three had ruled that the Texas AG was unable to prosecute voter fraud cases, leading AG Ken Paxton (R) to support challengers to the three.
Chief:  Former appeal court judge David Schenck (R) faces ADA Holly Taylor (D)
Place 7:  Attorney Gina Parker (R) faces Nancy Mulder (D)
Place 8:  Lee Finley (R) faces Chika Anyiam (D)

Utah:  Justice Matthew Durrant faces a retention election.

Washington: Three seats are up for nonpartisan election.
Position 2: Incumbent Susan Owens is age-limited.  Lawyer Sal Mungia (D supported) and judge Dave Larson (R supported) finished first and second in the primary.
Position 8: Incumbent Steven González is unopposed.
Position 9: Incumbent Sheryl Gordon McCloud is unopposed.

Wyoming: Incumbents Kate Fox and John Fenn are unopposed for nonpartisan reelection.

Results:

Alabama:  Sarah Stewart (R) won with 66%.

Arizona:  Justices Clint Bolick and Kathryn Hackett King (both R-appointed) won retention with 60%. The ballot proposition to end retention elections for judges failed 23-77.

Arkansas:  Justice Karen Baker (D) won the chief justice position 52-48 over Justice Rhonda Wood (R).  Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) will appoint a replacement for Baker.

Florida:  Justices Renatha Francis and Meredith Sasso won retention with 62-63%.

Indiana:  Justices Loretta Rush, Christopher Goff and Derek Molter won retention with 69-71%.

Iowa: Justice David May (R-appointed) won retention with 64%.

District 5 (Lexington area): Appeals court judge Pamela Goodwine (D supported) won with 77%.

Louisiana:  District 2 (Baton Rouge area)  Appeals court judges John Michael Guidry was elected unopposed after his opponents were disqualified due to failure to document their payment of taxes.

Michigan:  
Bolden seat:  Justice Kyra Bolden (D) won with 61%.
Viviano seat:  Law professor Kimberly Ann Thomas (D) won with 61%.

Minnesota: 
Chief Justice Natalie Hudson (D-appointed) won with 64%.
Justice Karl Procaccini (D-appointed) won with 57%.

Mississippi:  
District 1 (central) Position 3: State senator Jenifer Branning (R) won 42% to 36% for incumbent James Kitchens.  They move on to a runoff on November 26.
District 2 (south) Position 2: David Sullivan won 55-45 over incumbent Dawn Beam.

Chief:  Broadwater County attorney Cory Swanson (R) won 54-46 over Jerry Lynch (D supported).
Sandefur seat:  District Judge Katherine Bidegaray (D supported) won 54-46 over Dan Wilson (R supported).

Seat 6: Court of Appeals judge Jefferson Griffin (R) appears to have won 50.1-49.9 over Justice Allison Riggs (D).  There may be a recount.

Ohio:  R nominees won all three seats 55-45.
Local judge Megan Shanahan (R) beat incumbent Michael Donnelly (D).
Appointed incumbent Joseph Deters (R) beat incumbent Melody Stewart (D).
Local judge Dan Hawkins (R) beat appeals judge Lisa Forbes (D).

Oklahoma:  Voters ousted liberal justice Yvonne Kauger (age 87), with 50.2% voting against her.  Two other liberal justices, Noma Gurich (50.3%) and James Edmondson (51%) narrowly survived.  Governor Kevin Still (R) will appoint a replacement for Kauger, which should change the balance on the court which currently has 5 liberals and 4 conservatives.

Texas Supreme Court: Three R incumbents, Jimmy Blacklock, John Devine, and Jane Bland, won with 56-58%.

Texas Court of Criminal Appeals: Three R nominees, David Schenck, Gina Parker, and Lee Finley, won with 58%.

It is also notable that R nominees won 25 of 26 seats on Texas appeals courts, reversing D gains in recent years.

Position 2: Lawyer Sal Mungia (D supported) and judge Dave Larson (R supported) were close as votes continue to be counted.
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