Thursday, September 08, 2016

Phyllis Schlafly, RIP

Phyllis Schlafly, one of the founders of the modern American conservative movement, has died.

She was a delegate to numerous Republican conventions. She wrote many books on topics including education, feminism, national defense, and judicial activism; her total sales are several million. She led the movement to defeat the Equal Rights Amendment, the chief goal of the feminist movement. She founded and still led Eagle Forum, a conservative organization focusing on national sovereignty, immigration reform, education, and traditional values. Schlafly wrote a weekly column and a monthly newsletter.

I met Schlafly when she spoke at Kalamazoo College in 2007.  The following article summarized that event.

Phyllis Schlafly Speech

2016 Michigan State House Races

Last updated October 28, 2016.

Cross-posted at The Western RightRight Michigan, and Red Racing Horses.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans won a 63-47 majority in 2014, picking up four seats (62, 71, 84, 91), up from 59-41 after 2012. There are 42 open seats, 27 held by Republicans and 15 held by democrats. There are 41 open due to term-limits and one (Gretchen Driskell) just seeking another office.

Democrats are hoping to take back the state house. They will benefit from higher turnout in a presidential year and possibly coattails from the presidential race. They will try to take advantage of Republican support for a tax increase for roads and Governor Snyder's handling of the Flint water crisis, though state house candidates had nothing to do with the latter.

There are also many Republican seats first won in 2010 that are now term-limited.  Democrats are targeting several Republican incumbents, including 61, 62, 71, 91, and a number of open seats.

State house fundraising is analyzed in this article.

2016 Unofficial Michigan Primary Candidate Listing

The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012 and 2014 state house results, 2012 Romney %, and political rating.

1. (Brian Banks) [Detroit] 29-71, 31-69, 23.5%, Safe D Brian Banks won the 2012 primary before his long criminal record and ethical issues were exposed. He won a 2014 primary against divided opposition. This year, he again won the primary over divided opposition, and also faces new felony charges.
2. (OPEN-Alberta Tinsley Talibi) [Detroit] 26-72, 33-67, 23.8%, Safe D
3. (Wendell Byrd) [Detroit] 3-96, 3-97, 1.6%, Safe D
4. (Rose Robinson) [Detroit] 5-95, 5-95, 3.4%, Safe D
5. (Fred Durhal III) [Detroit] 6-94, 5-95, 2.7%, Safe D
6. (Stephanie Chang) [Detroit] 5-92, 6-94, 5.3%, Safe D
7. (LaTanya Garrett) [Detroit] 2-98, 2-98, 0.9%, Safe D
8. (Sherry Gay-Dagnogo) [Detroit] 3-97, 3-97, 2%, Safe D
9. (OPEN-Harvey Santana) [Detroit] 5-95, 4-96, 3.3%, Safe D
10. (Leslie Love) [Detroit] 14-86, 18-82, 16.4%, Safe D
11. (OPEN-Julie Plawecki) [Inkster, Garden City] 28-72, 30-70, 29.3%, Safe D This seat is open after Julie Plawecki's sudden death. Party insiders picked Inkster Councilman Jewell Jones for the full term.
12. (Erika Geiss) [Taylor, Romulus] 25-75, 30-70, 29.5%, Safe D
13. (Frank Liberati) [Southgate, Allen Park, Dearborn Heights] 35-65, 39-61, 40.3%, Safe D
14. (OPEN-Paul Clemente) [Riverview, Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, Melvindale] 26-71, 30-70, 34.9%, Safe D
15. (OPEN-George Darany) [Dearborn] 25-75, 32-68, 33.5%, Safe D
16. (Robert Kosowski) [Westland, Wayne] 28-68, 32-68, 33.3%, Safe D
17. (Bill Lavoy) [N Monroe, Sumpter, Huron] 39-61, 40-60, 45.3%, Safe D Republican Joseph Bellino has raised a decent amount of money, but running against a two-term incumbent in this environment is too high a hill to climb. He can be a strong candidate when the seat is open in 2018.
18. (OPEN-Sarah Roberts) [St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe] 34-64, 38-62, 40.7%, Safe D
19. (Laura Cox) [Livonia] 60-40, 62-38, 52%, Safe R
20. (OPEN-Kurt Heise) [Plymouth, Northville] 56-44, 60-40, 51.8%, Lean R Pastor Jeff Noble won an upset in the R primary with Tea Party support. He faces D Colleen Pobur in this somewhat moderate district.
21. (Kristy Pagan) [Canton, Van Buren] 38-62, 45-55, 43.3%, Safe D
22. (John Chirkun) [Roseville, E Warren] 30-70, 32-64, 36.2%, Safe D
23. (OPEN-Pat Somerville) [SE Wayne] 50.5-49.5, 52.1-47.9, 47.5%, Tossup (Tilt R) Pat Somerville won three close victories in this seat, which is the top D target. R Trenton Councilman Bob Howey has fundraised well. He faces Parks commissioner Darin Calmilleri, who won a tough D primary.
24. (OPEN-Anthony Forlini) [Harrison, N Clinton, SW Macomb] 54.7-45.3, 59-39, Tossup (Tilt R) R Macomb County Commissioner Steve Marino was embarrassed by recordings of him making false claims about his lobbying. He faces D Dana Camphous-Peterson, who has fundraised well.
25. (Henry Yanez) [E Sterling Heights, NC Warren] 48.6-51.4, 46.5-53.5, 47.8%, Safe D
26. (OPEN-Jim Townsend) [Royal Oak, Madison Heights] 36-60, 39-61, 40.3%, Safe D
27. (Robert Whittenberg) [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park] 20-76, 24-76, 24.8%, Safe D
28. (OPEN-Derek Miller) [W Warren, Center Line] 21-79, 36-64, 35.8%, Safe D
29. (Tim Greimel) [Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Orchard Lake] 23-77, 26-74, 23.9%, Safe D
30. (OPEN-Jeff Farrington) [W Sterling Heights, Utica, SE Shelby] 53.3-46.7, 55-45, 51.5%, Tossup (Tilt R) Diana Farrington, wife of the incumbent, won an unexpectedly close R primary. She faces D Michael Notte, son of the former Mayor of Sterling Heights. MIRS rates this district most likely to flip.
31. (OPEN-Marilyn Lane) [S Clinton, Fraser, Mt. Clemens] 34-62, 39-61, 41.8%, Safe D
32. (OPEN-Andrea LaFontaine) [Chesterfield, C St. Clair] 59-41, 62-38, 53.9%, Safe R School board treasurer Pamela Hornberger won the R primary in the seat.
33. (OPEN-Ken Goike) [NE Macomb, Macomb Twp.] 62-38, 66-34, 56.2%, Safe R City councilman Jeff Yaroch won the R primary in this seat.
34. (Sheldon Neeley) [Flint] 13-87, 9-91, 8.3%, Safe D
35. (Jeremy Moss) [Southfield] 17-83, 17-83, 17.6%, Safe D
36. (Peter Lucido) [Shelby, Washington, Bruce] 64-36, 70-30, 61%, Safe R
37. (Kristine Greig) [Farmington] 38-62, 43-57, 40.3%, Safe D
38. (Kathy Crawford) [Novi, Lyon] 59-41, 63-37, 53.6%, Safe R
39. (Klint Kesto) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom] 53.3-46.7, 52.3-47.7, 51.5%, Lean R Kesto has a large cash advantage over D Michael Stack, but the district is closely divided.
40. (Michael McCready) [Bloomfield, Birmingham, E West Bloomfield] 57-41, 58-42, 52.8%, Safe R
41. (Martin Howrylak) [Troy, Clawson] 50.5-49.5, 56-44, 51.6%, Likely R D Cyndi Peltonen hasn't raised much money, but Howrylak had a close call in 2012.
42. (Lana Theis) [SE Livingston] 63-33, 65-35, 60.2%, Safe R
43. (Jim Tedder) [Waterford, Independence] 66-34, 58-42, 54.8%, Safe R
44. (Jim Runestad) [Springfield, White Lake, Highland, Milford] 63-33, 68-32, 59.1%, Safe R
45. (Michael Webber) [Rochester, S Oakland Twp] 56-44, 56-44, 55.9%, Safe R
46. (OPEN-Bradford Jacobsen) [NE Oakland] 64-36, 69-31, 60.1%, Safe R Bradford Jacobsen narrowly beat back a primary challenge 54-46 from John Reilly in 2014. This time, Reilly (AC) beat Joe Kent (E) by 31 votes.
47. (Henry Vaupel) [N Livingston] 64-32, 69-27, 62.5%, Safe R
48. (Pam Faris) [NE Genesee] 36-64, 38-62, 39.8%, Safe D
49. (Phil Phelps) [Flint Twp., Mt. Morris, SW Flint] 25-75, 26-74, 28.8%, Safe D
50. (OPEN-Charles Smiley) [Burton, Grand Blanc, Mundy] 39-61, 41-59, 42.7%, Safe D
51. (Joe Graves) [W Genesee, Fenton, NW Oakland] 54.3-45.7, 58-42, 53.1%, Safe R
52. (OPEN-Gretchen Driskell) [W Washtenaw] 47-53, 44-56, 47.5%, Safe D This seat is open since Driskell, who beat an incumbent R in 2012, is running for Congress. School board treasurer Donna Lasinski, who had chamber of commerce support, won the D primary.
53. (OPEN-Jeff Irwin) [Ann Arbor] 19-81, 18-82, 19.5%, Safe D
54. (OPEN-David Rutledge) [Ypsilanti] 23-77, 25-75, 23.8%, Safe D
55. (Adam Zemke) [Pittsfield, NE Ann Arbor, York, Augusta] 32-65, 32-68, 31.6%, Safe D
56. (Jason Sheppard) [S Monroe] 58-42, 50.3-47.1, 50.6%, Lean R Jason Sheppard narrowly beat Tom Redmond in 2014 and faces a rematch in 2016.
57. (OPEN-Nancy Jenkins) [Lenawee] 52.5-47.5, 59-41, 49.9%, Lean R Senior center director Bronna Khale easily won the R primary. She faces D Harvey Schmidt.
58. (Eric Leutheuser) [Branch, Hillsdale] 70-30, 71-29, 60.1%, Safe R
59. (Aaron Miller) [St. Joseph, E Cass] 62-38, 62-38, 54.7%, Safe R
60. (Jon Hoadley) [Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp.] 26-74, 30-70, 26.8%, Safe D
61. (Brandt Iden) [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] 58-42, 48.4-42.7, 49.1%, Lean R Iden, who hurt himself by lying about a DUI in 2014, has been attacked for his support of Trump (he was a national delegate) but got good PR for his mass shooting alert bill. He faces a rematch with liberal pastor John Fisher.
62. (John Bizon) [Battle Creek, Albion, N Calhoun] 42-58, 51.2-48.8, 43.8%, Tossup (Tilt R) Dr. Bizon has a large base and great fundraising. He faces D Calhoun County Commissioner Jim Haadsma in the most D house district held by an R.
63. (David Maturen) [E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun] 50.9-49.1, 56-44, 54.6%, Safe R
64. (OPEN-Earl Poleski) [Jackson city, W Jackson] 56-44, 61-39, 51.2%, Likely R Jackson County Commissioner Julie Alexander won the R primary. She faces D Ron Brooks, who has not raised much.
65. (Brett Roberts) [N Jackson, SE Eaton] 57-43, 57-40, 53.4%, Safe R
66. (OPEN-Aric Nesbitt) [Van Buren, Cooper, Alamo, Parchment] 59-41, 57-43, 49.7%, Lean R Van Buren County Commissioner Beth Griffin easily won the R primary. She faces D school board member Annie Brown, who lost to Nesbitt in 2014.
67. (Tom Cochran) [S Ingham] 44-56, 46-54, 44.8%, Safe D
68. (Andy Schor) [Lansing] 23-77, 23-77, 24.6%, Safe D
69. (Sam Singh) [East Lansing, Meridian] 35-65, 32-68, 35.9%, Safe D
70. (OPEN-Rick Outman) [Montcalm, N Gratiot] 54.5-45.5, 62-38, 52.6%, Safe R Former county commissioner James Lower won the R primary.
71. (Tom Barrett) [Eaton] 46.6-53.4, 50.4-49.6, 47.3%, Tossup (Tilt R) Tom Barrett beat dem state rep. Theresa Abed in 2014. She is back for a rematch in 2016.
72. (OPEN-Ken Yonker) [Kentwood, Gaines, NE Allegan] 59-38, 68-32, 56.3%, Safe R Unemployed 25-year-old military veteran Steven Johnson won a shocking upset in the R primary.
73. (Chris Afendoulis) [Grand Rapids Twp, Plainfield, NE Kent] 64-32, 68-32, 60.9%, Safe R
74. (Rob Verhuelen) [Grandville, Walker, Alpine, NW Kent] 66-34, 69-31, 60.4%, Safe R
75. (Dave LaGrand) [central Grand Rapids] 24-76, 26-74, 23.8%, Safe D
76. (Winnie Brinks) [peripheral Grand Rapids] 39-52, 45.6-52.1, 44.2%, Safe D Republican Casey O'Neill has fundraised well, but running against a two-term incumbent in this environment is too high a hill to climb. Rs will have a better chance when the seat is open in 2018.
77. (OPEN-Thomas Hooker) [Wyoming, Byron] 60-36, 67-33, 58.3%, Safe R Restaurant owner Tommy Brann won the R primary overwhelmingly.
78. (Dave Pagel) [S Berrien, SW Cass] 61-39, 67-33, 56.1%, Safe R
79. (OPEN-Al Pscholka) [N Berrien] 52.8-45.7, 59-39, 51.5%, Likely R Teacher Kim LaSata, wife of former rep (1998-2004) Charles LaSata, won the R primary.
80. (Mary Whiteford) [Allegan] 62-38, 63-34, 57.6%, Safe R Mary Whiteford won a special election in March 2016 to replace expelled rep. Cindy Gamrat.
81. (Dan Lauwers) [NW, E St. Clair] 53.8-46.2, 65-35, 55%, Safe R
82. (Gary Howell) [Lapeer] 59-41, 55-45, 55.1%, Safe R
83. (OPEN-Paul Muxlow) [Sanilac, Port Huron] 56-44, 62-38, 52.5%, Safe R Conservative activist Shane Hernandez won the R primary.
84. (Edward Canfield) [Tuscola, Huron] 38-53, 59-41, 53-43, 55.6%, Safe R
85. (OPEN-Ben Glardon) [Shiawassee, W Saginaw] 54-40, 53-43, 48.9%, Likely R Owosso Mayor Ben Frederick fundraised well and easily won the R primary. He faces D Anthony Karhoff, who has not fundraised well.
86. (OPEN-Lisa Posthumus Lyons) [SE Kent, N Ionia] 70-30, 66-34, 63%, Safe R Marine Thomas Albert won the close R primary.
87. (OPEN-Mike Callton) [Barry, S Ionia] 62-35, 67-33, 58.7%, Safe R Ionia County Commissioner Julie Calley, wife of LG Brian Calley, was unopposed in the R primary.
88. (Roger Victory) [NE Ottawa] 87-0, 80-20, 72.9%, Safe R
89. (OPEN-Amanda Price) [W Ottawa] 66-34, 68-32, 61.6%, Safe R Banker Jim Lilly easily won the R primary.
90. (Daniela Garcia) [Holland] 100-0, 78-22, 66.5%, Safe R
91. (Holly Hughes) [S, W Muskegon] 47.3-48.1, 46.5-46.3, 48.5%, Tossup (Tilt D) Holly Hughes defeated dem state rep. Colleen LaMonte in 2014, who defeated her in 2012. LaMonte is back for a rematch in 2016.
92. (OPEN-Marcia Hovey Wright) [Muskegon city] 27-73, 33-67, 31.3%, Safe D
93. (Tom Leonard) [S Gratiot, Clinton] 57-43, 56-35, 52.9%, Safe R
94. (Tim Kelly) [Saginaw Twp, E Saginaw] 56-44, 62-38, 55.7%, Safe R
95. (Vanessa Guerra) [Saginaw city] 22-78, 24-76, 24.8%, Safe D
96. (OPEN-Charles Brunner) [Bay] 31-69, 32-68, 45.3%, Safe D Former county commissioner Brian Elder, who is pro-life, won the D primary.
97. (OPEN-Joel Johnson) [Arenac, Gladwin, Clare, E Osceola] 62-38, 63-37, 53.2%, Safe R Veteran Jason Wentworth won the R primary easily. The D candidate has effectively dropped out.
98. (Gary Glenn) [C Midland, N Bay] 59-41, 55-45, 56%, Safe R
99. (OPEN-Kevin Cotter) [Isabella, W Midland] 57-43, 51.5-48.5, 48.1%, Tossup (Tilt D) Township Trustee Roger Hauck easily won the R primary, but has struggled in fundraising. D Bryan Mielke is running again after coming close in 2014 against Speaker Cotter.
100. (OPEN-Jon Bumstead) [Newaygo, Oceana, Lake] 62-38, 63-37, 55.5%, Safe R Accountant/businessman Scott VanSingel easily won the R primary.
101. (OPEN-Ray Franz) [Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Mason] 51-49, 50.4-49.6, 50.7%, Lean D Mason county commissioner Curt VanderWall easily won the R primary. He faces D former state rep Dan Scripps (2008-2010), who has raised significantly more.
102. (OPEN-Phil Potvin) [Wexford, W Osceola, Mecosta] 54.8-45.2, 60-40, 56.3%, Safe R Manton Mayor Michelle Hoitenga won a close R primary.
103. (OPEN-Bruce Rendon) [Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw] 52.8-47.2, 60-34, 55.9%, Likely R Daire Rendon, wife of the incumbent, easily won the R primary. She faces D Jordan Stancil.
104. (Larry Inman) [Grand Traverse] 57-43, 53.2-46.8, 55.4%, Lean R Inman, who won the Republican primary in 2014 with 21%, beat back a primary challenge this time. He faces D Betsy Coffia.
105. (Triston Cole) [Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda] 67-33, 63-37, 58.5%, Safe R
106. (OPEN-Peter Petallia) [E Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco] 52.2-45.3, 55-45, 53.6%, Tossup (Tilt R) Cheboygan County Commissioner Sue Allor won the R primary. She faces Robert Kennedy, who upset the preferred D candidate. A MIRS poll has Kennedy leading.
107. (Lee Chatfield) [Emmet, Mackinac, Chippewa, N Cheboygan] 58-42, 61-39, 55.5%, Safe R
108. (OPEN-Ed McBroom) [Delta, Menominee, Dickinson] 54.6-45.4, 60-40, 54.6%, Tossup/Tilt R Beau LaFave won the R primary. He faces Sheriff Scott Celello, won is highly touted by dems, but underperformed in the D primary.
109. (John Kivela) [Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, Luce] 42-58, 34-66, 45.4%, Safe D
110. (Scott Dianda) [W Upper Peninsula] 48.4-51.6, 39-61, 51.6%,

Safe D Ratings:
Safe D: 47
Lean D: 1 (101)
Tossup (Tilt D): 2 (91, 99)
Tossup (Tilt R): 7 (23, 24, 30, 62, 71, 106, 108)
Lean R: 7 (20, 39, 56, 57, 61, 64, 104)
Likely R: 5 (41, 64, 79, 85, 103)
Safe R: 41

Thursday, September 01, 2016

2016 Michigan Post-primary State House Fundraising

September 1 was the deadline for campaign finance reports for Michigan legislature.  Here are summaries of the total amounts raised (with cash on hand) in competitive general elections for Michigan state house.  XX means the report has yet to be filed.

17. (Safe D) (R) Bellino 43K (19K) (D) LaVoy 54K (5K)
20. (Lean R) (R) Noble 27K (10K) (D) Pubur 28K (19K)
23. (Tossup) (R) Howey 67K (37K) (D) Camilleri 62K (7K)
24. (Lean R) (R) Marino 110K (42K) (D) Peterson 75K (20K)
30. (Lean R) (R) Farrington 76K (32K) (D) Notte 46K (14K)
39. (Lean R) (R) Kesto 176K (101K) (D) Stack 6K (13K)
41. (Lean R) (R) Howrylak 84K (34K) (D) Peltonon 7K (2K)
52. (Safe D) (R) Clark 15K (4K) (D) Lasinski 123K (19K)
56. (Lean R) (R) Sheppard 107K (64K) (D) Redmond 23K (10K)
57. (Tossup) (R) Kahle 88K (28K) (D) Schmidt 22K (21K)
61. (Lean R) (R) Iden 132K (82K) (D) Fisher 33K (17K)
62. (Tossup) (R) Bizon 109K (85K) (D) Haadsma 77K (47K)
64. (Lean R) (R) Alexander 104K (4K) (D) Brooks 16K (6K)
66. (Lean R) (R) Griffin 110K (50K) (D) Brown 62K (29K)
71. (Tossup) (R) Barrett 130K (77K) (D) Abed 50K (25K)
76. (Safe D) (R) O'Neill 40K (6K) (D) Brinks 70K (40K)
79. (Lean R) (R) LaSata 50K (14K) (D) Seats 9K (6K)
83. (Safe R) (R) Hernandez 49K (8K) (D) Frank 9K (4K)
85. (Lean R) (R) Frederick 126K (30K) (D) Karhoff 11K (4K)
91. (Tossup) (R) Hughes 182K (119K) (D) Lamonte 143K (103K)
97. (Safe R) (R) Wentworth 53K (14K) (D) Townsend 8K ($250)
98. (Safe R) (R) Glenn 179K (98K) (D) Malicoat 13K ($302)
99. (Tossup) (R) Hauck 53K (21K) (D) Mielke 109K (70K)
101. (Tossup) (R) VandelWall 66K (52K) (D) Scripps 107K (22K)
103. (Lean R) (R) Rendon 84K (41K) (D) Stancil 31K (1K)
104. (Lean R) (R) Inman 122K (29K) (D) Coffia 35K (16K)
106. (Lean R) (R) Allor 77K (21K) (D) Kennedy 20K (3K)
108. (Tossup) (R) Lafave 41K (3K) (D) Celello 59K (21K)

I moved 83 and 97 to safe R based on these reports.